Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - REVELATION: ESPN's Bill Connelly's Rankings ELEVATE Iowa to Top 25 | Are the Hawkeyes UNDERRATED?

Starting point is 00:00:00 A look back at a dominating win for the Hawkeyes over Wisconsin. The grades from PFF and Penn State Fires, James Franklin. I'll look at what that means for the Hawkeye. You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, welcome in. I'm Trent Condon, and this is the Lodewa. Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:00:35 I've been cover of the Hawkeyes for over 20 years on the radio here in the state of Iowa. You can hear me currently on the Iowa Sports Radio Network each weekday from noon to tune with stations in Des Moines, Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, the Quad Cities, and Sioux City. Today's episode of Lockdown Hawkeyes is brought to you by Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use a Across the app. Download the app today. We're going to be joined a little bit later on by Bill Connolly, his rankings from ESPN that you see each and every week. The SP Plus rankings will take a look at that as he has the Iowa Hawkeyes as a top 25 team. Also talk a little bit about the

Starting point is 00:01:17 past of the future and how those numbers pertain to both the Big Ten and the Iowa Hawkeyes. We'll also take a look at the numbers from pro football focus, our weekly grade. But before all that, I'll look back at the dominating win against Wisconsin. Iowa gets it down, done 37-0 and a couple of things that jump out as we go through each and every Sunday night, re-watch the game, and then pass that along to you. So let's start with a couple of things that I mentioned in the Rapid Reaction podcast, starting with Mark Gronowski. Grinowski, one of the things that I mentioned was we saw a couple of different times, him just rolling out, him moving the pocket a little bit and kind of changing directions,

Starting point is 00:01:54 we see that there was something off with him. And you could still see that knee. I think it's maybe the knee stability, even with the brace on, you wonder about that. You know, we heard from Kirk after the game against Indiana when Mark Grunowski was injured in that game, that they were concerned about him being able to decelering, slowing down on that knee.

Starting point is 00:02:15 And I think you saw some of those things. But another component that really jumped out, and I counted three different times on the rewatch, that him just rolling, moving a little bit, and they were to the right, the knee buckled. Or he kind of got tripped up. It's hard to exactly explain what it was, but you see just that little movement that seemed off with him. Now, I don't know if this is going to be something we're going to be able to see him improve with that, that with time, with rehab, with him continuing to get better, if that will improve.

Starting point is 00:02:48 But that definitely leaves me concerned. You know, another takeaway is after the Aaron Graves, Rumble, and man, how great would that have been for him to score a touchdown? You know, a guy that he was a big-time recruit, playing eight-player football, being a small school guy, the story of him up there in Gowry, where he graduates high school early. He already had his AA before he had moved on. And a guy that, you know, Michigan's not come to Gowardy to look at prospects, right? But they did. I mean, he had a bunch of big-time offers. and for him to be able to put together this kind of senior campaign,

Starting point is 00:03:21 he's the best player on this defense. And to be able to finish that off with a possibility of getting the end zone, that would have been so great. But that aside. Also, I thought it was interesting. He mentioned in the post game that he was supposed to be on contain on that play. And maybe he cheated just a little bit, moved out a little bit further on that to get the interception. Also, Bryce Hawthorne on his interception.

Starting point is 00:03:42 And great play by Brian Allen to get the deflection, get the hand on the arm of the quarterback. Simmons in order to force that ball in the air. But for Bryce Hawthorne to get the interception, he said that was the first of his career. Didn't do it at South Dakota State, didn't do it to high school, didn't even have an interception of peewee football, and for them to come in that moment. Just going through another thing that jumps off. And a little bit later, we mentioned we're going to get into the numbers from pre-FF pro football focus.

Starting point is 00:04:10 Boy, that Iowa offensive line played at a high level. And as we've seen a couple of different times, you know, Jennings Dunker, he's been banged up this season. We've seen both Stevens miss some time. And to see that the way that those guys were playing, I was incredibly impressed, coupled with the running backs. And we know they don't have Caleb Johnson. Camarie Bolton, though, is a really good running back. And now with the return of Xavier Williams, seeing him out there. And of course, seeing what you get out of that redshirt freshman. You throw then the true freshman in there. And Nathan McNeil, it's an embarrassment of riches. I mean, I was incredibly deep at this position. Jazzy on Patterson,

Starting point is 00:04:47 is still going to be coming back to this team after he recovers from his ankle injury. And you just go through the depth that they have at running back. Yeah, you don't have an ace. You don't have that A number one player like you had with Caleb Johnson. But this is a really, really good group coupled with a really good offensive line. And it's exciting for the rest of the season because I think with Grinowski, you know that there are going to be some limitations. And though you hope for improvement and he continues to get better. And we're going to see more there.

Starting point is 00:05:14 You're going to do that. Another thing back to Grinowski, that jump back on the rewatch, was you look at the depth of distance. And really outside of the play down the field to hate large, which should have been a catch. I think Large had that one, which is surprised they didn't look at it further, but that aside, is you saw Grunowski, the ball was coming out quick. And I think that maybe had something to do with that knee. And you do wonder, as he gets more comfortable playing through this injury, if he's going to go through the progressions a little bit more.

Starting point is 00:05:46 It felt like it was one, maybe two reads, and boom, ball getting out. Now that makes sense, a guy that doesn't have the same kind of mobility, doesn't have the same kind of ability to run the football that you're going to do those things. But those are a couple things, certainly offensively that stood out in the football game. We talked about it Saturday night too. The return of Reese Vander Z is nothing but great for this team. Getting that big body wide receiver with the limitations that they have in the passing game

Starting point is 00:06:14 of tight end. Now, Vonamy is now your starter. You need to have that big guy down in the red zone and really like to have Vaynerzid. He looked comfortable. He's going to get his endurance back. He's going to be able to play more snaps. Certainly as you go forward, they're going to need them. They're going to need them this week against Penn State. We're going to talk a little bit more about Penn State later on too after the firing of James Franklin and what that means for Iowa coming up this week.

Starting point is 00:06:39 On the defensive side of the football, we talked about the two interceptions. by the defensive lineman, how great that was to see. But a couple other things that definitely jumped out was the ability of this defense going with the new battle linebacker. It really didn't look like they missed a beat. Jade Montgomery was in the right spots. I thought what I saw from him, he was able to diagnose maybe even a little bit quicker than what we saw from Jane Harrell.

Starting point is 00:07:04 Yeah, he's not real tall, but that's okay. I always got away with that plenty of times in the past, really like what we saw from Montgomery. Another thing was the way that they tackle. And I thought this team was much better in space, much better finishing tackles. I thought Wampa was outstanding on some of the plays that he was able to make. This team was ready to go and the defense was ready to go. And I have a feeling that that was a big conversation piece during the by week for the Hawkeyes.

Starting point is 00:07:33 Is them being able to go out there and just getting back to the fundamentals, doing the things that Iowa frankly needs to do. in order to win football games. And I certainly think you saw a whole bunch of that. We continue here on the lockdown Hawkeyes. We're going to be joined next by Bill Connolly, his rankings at ESPN, an analytical look at college football. We'll talk to Bill about what he has going on.

Starting point is 00:07:58 Take a deeper look at the Hawkeyes and see what some of those numbers say about Iowa with Bill Connolly of ESPN. He joins us next as we roll through. This is Lockdown Hawkeyes. Peloton is shaping the future of fitness with the brand new Peloton Cross Training Thread Plus, powered by Peloton IQ. It's their most advanced equipment yet designed to give you real-time guidance and endless ways to move, whether you're running, lifting, or cross-training with your favorite instructors. This is training reimagined.

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Starting point is 00:09:18 Welcome back once again to the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day. Join today by Bill Connolly of ESPN taking a look at football and we're going to start here on the local front talking about the Hawkeyes. Bill, good to talk with you. It's been a while. I know I had you on the radio years ago. It's been too long. How you've been doing? Pretty good. How about you? Doing well. We got a lot to talk about today. I want to take a look at the Big Ten, but want to start with our focus, and that is, of course, the Iowa Hawkeyes, your latest rankings up at ESPN.com as I was a top 25 team. Now, you look at the AP poll, you look at the

Starting point is 00:09:56 coaches poll. You're not going to see the Hawkeyes close. Four and two on the season, two disappointing losses and kind of would a should have against both Indiana and Iowa State. But here they are. And let's go into these numbers a little bit further, and no surprise, once again, one of the best defenses in the country. Yeah, I mean, that was kind of, I realized there was more turnover than normal on the defensive side of the ball. There was a reason to wonder about that. There are certain units you just kind of assume are going to keep playing at a certain high level. And I think Phil Parker's defense is going to be one of those every single year. So, you know, I kind of underachieved here and now early, I guess. But I mean, it's been basically what it needs to be. And the offense,

Starting point is 00:10:37 I was really, really high on Grinowski coming into this year, and he was fine, but, you know, it started slowly, got better, and, you know, when you needed offense against Rutgers in particular, it showed up. So, I mean, you're eight points from being undefeated, despite having played Indiana and Ohio State. I mean, that's a pretty good place to be. Just wish you could have closed the deal on those games. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:11:00 And, you know, you lose Gernowski in the fourth quarter of that game against Indiana. They're a screen pass completion away from, at minimum, getting a first down. leading to a chip-shot field goal and beating Indiana and not even giving that opportunity in the Iowa State game. Oh, boy, there's a lot of them, a lot of possibilities that you get beat on a tip ball and a 55-yard field goal. And now the Iowa State team we see today looks a whole lot different than the one we saw back in early September. Bill, when you go through and these numbers, you know, looking at them, I'm an analytical-driven person. When it comes to basketball season, I love diving into Bart Torvik and Ken Palm and Evan Maya. So I go into it, football for whatever reason, A, there's not as many of those numbers and those kind of analytically driven numbers.

Starting point is 00:11:44 Tell us a little bit about your ranking system and why maybe we don't see as much of that in football as opposed to what we see in basketball. Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of what we see in football ends up coming down to should go forward on fourth down. And it's been that way for like a decade now. But yeah, I mean, there's certainly, you know, I'd like to think that what I've been doing, what the ESPN analytics team does. I mean, there's a lot to kind of keep track. There's a lot of ways to evaluate a team in an offense and a defense. And, you know, I use them, obviously, what I do referencing them a lot in my own ratings.

Starting point is 00:12:19 I mean, SP Plus is basically opponent adjusted, tempo-adjusted measure of what I'll just say, you know, kind of college football sustainability. Like, what are they, it's a funky ball, it bounces weird, it's 18 to 22-year-old guys. There's a lot about the game that you can't really control, but the efficiency aspect of it, the staying on schedule, just the execution side, we can measure those things. And that's what kind of the intent of SP Plus is. You know us here in Iowa over the last, well, half decade plus, there's been so much talk about the offense.

Starting point is 00:12:51 And when you look at the rankings year after year, under Brian Ferrence, the former offensive coordinator, here than the 120s in passing offense and the like. Yet efficiency-wise, sometimes those numbers painted a different picture. Tell us what you've seen now this last year and a half with Tim Lester at the helm, running the offense, still not dynamic by any means in the passing game, but when you look at efficiency, what they were able to do a year ago running the ball. And now when you look at it this season, what your numbers tell you about this Iowa offense. Yeah, I mean, I think the two most important measures you're going to find when it comes to what Iowa wants to try to do on offense. They're 18th and what I call rushing success rate. My success rate measure is just how frequently are you saying getting 50% of your necessary.

Starting point is 00:13:33 yards on first down, 70% on second, 100% on third and fourth, they're doing that. And, you know, before last year, they were not doing that at all. It got really frustrating trying to talk about the ways that Iowa's offense could improve because it almost sounded like, you know, everybody was just telling them to run the spread and pass all the time. It's like, no, you can run as much as you want to just do it well because it was a few years there where they just were not running the ball well. And if you can't do that and you're only doing that, then you're kind of stuck.

Starting point is 00:14:00 But it feels like it improved a good amount last year, and it's improved a good amount this year. Not only are the 18th in Russian success rate. They're also eighth in what I've always called stuff rate, which is basically how frequently are you getting stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on the run. They're moving the ball forward. They're not moving backwards. The passing game obviously hasn't dramatically come along or anything like that. But they are staying on schedule, and that is a humongous part because if nothing else, if you get two first downs and then punt, you're dominating. position game. And that's a really good thing for the Iowa defense.

Starting point is 00:14:34 Bill Connolly joining us of ESPN, taking a look at the Hawkeyes and the Big Ten coming up here in a moment. One more on the Iowa front with you, Bill. And I do want to get your thoughts on this week's matchup. Here comes Penn State. We've seen the last three weeks after that tough loss. And now what's happened against UCLA and Northwestern, Franklin, now fired on top of it. See that cap component. We saw UCLA bounce back after firing Foster. Maybe that something you look at. I mean, how can you handicap that? And what can your numbers say about a Penn State team? It's certainly not a talent problem, even with Aller now out. How do you figure out this Penn State Iowa match up this week? I mean, your guess is as good as mine. Just as since it is an

Starting point is 00:15:16 absolute mystery now, you know, a young quarterback who's not only young, but it's barely, we have no idea. Like, he's barely played. He barely has any tape. There's just not a lot to go on there. And you don't know what because, I mean, yeah, that was the thing with DCL. is they basically just went, you know, full on, let's just go for broke. We're going to do a bunch of new stuff that Penn State hasn't prepared for. It kind of lit a fire. They did it again on Saturday against Michigan State. But, you know, Penn State, I don't know.

Starting point is 00:15:48 I mean, you have to assume they're going to come out and try to establish the line of scrimmage and run the ball as much as humanly possible because you have a young quarterback and you don't want to, you know, come out and do a bunch of experimental stuff. and throw a pick six on the first play or something. You know, Iowa's run defense hasn't been amazing. It prevents big plays, but it'll give you five yards on first down. And so my guess is that what they try, that's what they try to do.

Starting point is 00:16:13 But, man, it is kind of fired coach, new quarterback all at the same time. It's an absolute crap shoot here. Bill Connolly, joining us from ESPN and his new book Forward Progress, the definitive guide to the future of college football will get to that momentarily. In the Big Ten, Indiana. saw if you take away the priors with the SP Plus rankings, the Hoosiers would be way, way up there. Indiana is certainly the story of college football.

Starting point is 00:16:40 You got Ohio State, and obviously what the Buckeyes have been. And then that next tier, that next group of teams, there's a lot of good potential playoff teams in that mix. What are your numbers saying about the rest of the season, how the Big Ten is going to play out? Yeah, I mean, at some point over the last couple weeks, I kind of reluctantly accepted that Ohio State is probably the number one team in the country. From a number, if you look at purely, like you said,

Starting point is 00:17:03 if you look at purely 2025 performance only, you take out all the priors and stuff, which if you want a good predictive system, you don't do that. Priors are predictive. And so I always have to put a reminder in for that. But if you only look at 2025, Indiana has been a pretty perfect football team. The fact that Iowa was able to stay as close as they did

Starting point is 00:17:24 was a very good endorsement of what Iowa is capable of long. But, yeah, overall, when you look at it, of both this year's production and just what we know Ohio State has. You know, they haven't asked, Jeremy Smith to hardly do anything. He's averaging like, what, eight, nine yards per catch against Power Conference teams. We know what they have and what they'll be able to kind of unfurl when they need to. I'm pretty sure the list starts with them, no matter how good Indiana's looked. But, yeah, I mean, after that is kind of interesting.

Starting point is 00:17:50 We lost Penn State. They're gone now. But Oregon is still, I think, a very good team. You know, not quite as good as we expected maybe before the Indiana game, but still right up there. And I guess we're just kind of waiting to see between USC and Washington and Nebraska in particular, all those teams have kind of top 15 capabilities. And we've got to see if anyone can kind of get to the finish line with two lost.

Starting point is 00:18:14 Lots of two lost teams could win out too. But obviously we're going to start with those kind of one-loss teams and see which ones can make a run. I really love Washington's offense. The only time they got stopped at all was against probably the best defense in the country in Ohio State. they seem to be able to move the ball really well against everybody else, because they're going to be really fun to watch. And maybe the hot guys can be that two-loss team. They've got to be Penn State, and they've got to win a couple of rivalry games.

Starting point is 00:18:38 They've got to beat Oregon and Kinnick. But, well, you never know. All right, Bill, before we let you go, do want to talk a little bit about your new book. Really looking forward to this. It's been a long-time admirer of your numbers and your articles throughout the years. Forward Progress, the Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football. Take us in a little bit to the new book. people can look for? Yeah, I mean, there's just so much change in a very short period of time

Starting point is 00:19:04 for a sport that never changed very quickly at all. And I started to realize a couple of years ago that I just, I was reacting to everything. I didn't really have a vision for how I thought things should go or how we got here. And it was just, you know, every day there was something else to react to. So I thought it was a really good time to kind of step back and take a big picture look at how did we get to this where we currently are with the you know not only you know power conferences but the power conferences within the power conferences and all the realignment that has happened and you know how the the extra the next one of you know private equity money that's coming in that's going to influence things here at some point which i've

Starting point is 00:19:45 written way too much about soccer i i've never ever think private equity is a good answer for anything. But no, just so there's a chapter on realignment. There's a chapter on how we got here playoff-wise. It's a chapter on obviously roster management and player freedoms and whatnot. And it's just kind of a look at each one of those things one by one and then a little attempt to spend things forward a little bit. Bill Connolly, the book is available. You can find it and looking forward to that, find it on Amazon and wherever you get your books. Once again, Bill Connolly, joining us as we talk about forward progress, the definitive guide to the future of college football.

Starting point is 00:20:21 Bill, good to catch up with you. Once again, appreciate your time. Absolutely. Thank you again to Bill Connolly for joining us here on Locked on Hawkeyes. We continue. It's time to take a look back. The grades from pro football focus. How good was that win?

Starting point is 00:20:38 Iowa Penn State coming up this weekend, the firing of James Franklin, how that impacts the Hawkeyes. All to come, Lockheyes. John Hawkeyes. This episode is brought to you by Square. Your favorite neighborhood spots run on Square. There are certain businesses that make the neighborhood,

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Starting point is 00:21:51 Square, see you in the neighborhood. Today's episode is also brought to you by Fanduil Sportsbook. Well, the NFL season rolls through. We got Monday night football coming up this evening. And Fanduil has an offer you don't want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. You'll get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right.

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Starting point is 00:23:05 And a thank you to every dayers. Our everyday listeners couldn't do it. it without you. We are your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast. Back to the numbers and a look at pro PFF, pro football focus. This is what we do each and every week and see if it kind of matches up with what we're seeing with the Hawkeyes. We go back. We rewatch the game. We talk about that each and every week. What it looks like with this team is. And if our eyeballs match up with what we're seeing with this squad. And when you do that, I think a couple of things point out. Sometimes you just have initial bias. I'm guilty of that. Certain guys that you believe in, certain guys that

Starting point is 00:23:44 maybe you've checked out on. There's plenty of that part that is out there. Let's start, though, offensively as we do seemingly every single week here and start at the quarterback spot. We talked about Mark Kornowski a lot, what we've seen from him and how different he looked at the quarterback spot. Didn't grade out real high, a 57.9, that is below average. Jeremy Hacklinski, in fact, graded higher than him. him and threw the ball once for two yards. So let's slow down a little bit on that one. Of course, had the bad interception, did Grinowski.

Starting point is 00:24:15 That's definitely going to be impactful there, just over 100 yards passing in the game. So we'll see about Heklinsky, and if he is going to be the guy moving forward. At running back, Camari Bolton was outstanding, an 81.2 grade for him. Xavier Williams, very good with the 73, 71.9 for Nathan McNeil,

Starting point is 00:24:33 hit this earlier. This running back room is deep, it's talented, and it's got a bright future. on top of it. At wide receiver, your only above average guy was Reese Fannery, 70.4 for him. Cain Weech and also above average, a 64.60 is that average grade in the PFF rankings. Alex Eichmann, he was playing late. He got that reception from Jeremy Hecklinsky at 57, KJ Parker, a 56, 54 from Dayton Howard, Seth Anderson, a 52, 52 also for Sam Phillips, and a 46, not very good out of that group there for Jacob

Starting point is 00:25:08 Gill at the end. Vonnegut with the 55, he was the best of the tight ends, Hayden Large with a 44.6, and his run-blocking grade not very good. Neither was Zach Ortworth. That was a little bit of a surprise. Your best run blocker was Michael Bert, another guy that played late in the game. But this might have been the most surprising aspect to all of this was the grades that were handed out to the offensive line. Now, Logan Jones was outstanding, both pass blocking and run blocking. A 77.5 overall, that's outstanding. average for Peeper, 65, a 64 for Dunker, Layton Jones with the 60. But to see both Stevens at a 55.9 run black blocking grade real low, same for Trevor Lough. That certainly did not match

Starting point is 00:25:52 up with what I saw on the field on Saturday night. Over to the defense in the grades from pro football focus, Brian Allen, my guy, I think you all know that. Top pass rush grade at 93, overall an 86.1. Aaron Graves, of course, had the interception. He was outstanding and 83.6. Those are elite. Ethan Herkett, good, great on him, along with Llewellyn. We got to see Jose Epinessa out there.

Starting point is 00:26:18 How about that? Jonah Pace did a nice job, really all these guys. Pittman was a lowest rated guy with a 49, a 56.9 overall for Hawthorne, but of course had that interception. Felt like it could have been even better than that. At the linebacker spot of the guys that played a, ton you had the top rank guy was jade montgomery 68.8.8. We talked about him earlier liked what we

Starting point is 00:26:41 saw. Rex Roth, good grade on him. 68.5. Good tackle numbers, good run against the run numbers also from him. Carson Shire was the lowest rated with a 45, but then we got to see some of the young guys. Preston Reese. How about Cam Buffington who had four tackles and maybe the heir apparent at the middle linebacker spot? A really good stuff out of Buffington. Reese out there. We got to see Van Kekricks, Nolan DeLong, and more of a veteran guy, and of course, Weisskopf, but those red shirt freshmen, Weisskoff, Buffington, Reese, got to see them out there. And that was one of the things we're hoping to see on Saturday night. Finally, defensive backfield, T.J. Hall continues his ascension this season, a nearly 80 grade for T.J. Hall.

Starting point is 00:27:24 Lutmer, who was playing a little bit of cornerback, a 71.5. Good grade as well for DeShon Lee. Talked about Wampa. He was good. Jalen Watson with a good grade. Got to see a lot of Guys, how about Alex Moda, also getting in there late in the game? And with all the entries that he had, just great, great stuff. So that is a look at the PFF numbers. It doesn't match up with what you saw. That's why we do this every single week. Well, we are out of time for today.

Starting point is 00:27:50 We're going to talk more about this Penn State matchup against Iowa, the firing of James Franklin. What that means for Iowa, just strictly from an Iowa perspective. Good news, bad news. We will tackle that tomorrow. We got Kirk Ferrence's press conference tomorrow. We got a whole lot coming up as we get ready. Penn State coming to town.

Starting point is 00:28:09 It is officially a sellout at Kinnick Stadium. And even with a disappointing Penn State team, oh boy, night kickoff. You know, we're going to be fueled up for that one. As always, thanks for being with us and making Lockdown Hawkeyes, your first listen every day. I'll thank you again to you every dayers with us each and every day. And don't forget, you love the Big Ten. Check out Lockdown Big Ten with Craig Sheiman. He's got you covered as they go through all 18 teams in the Big Ten.

Starting point is 00:28:38 A deep dive unlike any other with Craig and Company over on Locked on Big Ten. That'll do it for today. We'll be back with you tomorrow. Until then, go Hawks.

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - REVELATION: ESPN's Bill Connelly's Rankings ELEVATE Iowa to Top 25 | Are the Hawkeyes UNDERRATED?

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