Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Should the Iowa Hawkeyes consider Alex Padilla and there is still no Riley Moss sighting on the depth chart

Episode Date: November 2, 2021

We take a deep dive into the analytics today to help us determine if Alex Padilla would be an upgrade over Spencer Petras as the starting quarterback for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Moreover, we know the offensive line is a problem, but is there a quieter, just as concerning problem on the other side of the line brewing? Finally, the depth chart for Northwestern was released and there was no Riley Moss or Ivory Kelly-Martin. We break down what all of this means for the Hawks.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.PrizePicksDon’t hesitate, check out PrizePicks.com and use promo code: “LOCKEDON” or go to your app store and download the app today. PrizePicks is daily fantasy made easy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back Hawkeye Nation to a Tuesday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Podcast Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade. Excited to be back for another show today. I want to quickly apologize because I am a little bit under the weather, so if my voice kind of cracks at times, I'm dealing with a little bit of a cold.

But the show must go on. We have a lot to talk about in Iowa Hawkeye Nation today. We're going to be talking about the AP poll, the coaches poll, and the college football playoff rankings, which are coming out for the first time this year, tomorrow, or actually today as you're listening to this. We're also going to be talking a little bit about the depth chart. Some interesting things popped up there. We still do not have Riley Moss or Terry Roberts there. Also had a few changes on the offensive side of the football. So we're going to talk about that as well. And then finally, to wrap up the show,

we're breaking down everything from an analytical perspective from Iowa, Wisconsin. Some interesting stuff I noticed in regards to pass protection and also the pass rush. Is there a bigger issue on the line than the offensive line? Is the defensive line causing some issues too? It could be part of the reason why Iowa is not getting nearly as many turnovers. In fact, no turnovers as of recently. So we're going to be breaking all of that down on this show today.

And I want to thank you all for making the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. You can find the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast for free wherever you get podcasts at and also on YouTube for free as well, Monday through Friday. We're breaking everything down across Iowa Hawkeye nation and you can find it all there. So again, thank you all for making the lockdown Hawkeyes podcast your first listen every single day. So let's get into it though. The AP poll came out and as, as we expected,

Iowa dropped quite a bit when you lose that way that you did to Wisconsin, you're going to see a fall in the rankings. Iowa drops to 19th. So 10 spots they dropped there and the the rankings. Iowa drops to 19th. So 10 spots, they drop there. And the coaches' poll, they drop to 16th. Now, neither of these polls really matter a ton. It just gives you an idea of where Iowa is currently and where Iowa could be in the college football playoff rankings.

Now, that is the poll that ultimately does matter because that determines where Iowa could possibly be going for a postseason bowl game. When the rankings come out, I do expect Iowa to be somewhere around 17th or 18th. I think what they're going to look at is the value of beating Iowa State. I think they're going to see that Indiana is not as bad of a football team as the record shows. They're going to look at it and say Iowa took down Penn State at home.

And they're going to look at it and say, Iowa took down Penn State at home. And they're going to look at it and say, you know, there's a couple really bad areas here on the offensive line. But outside of that, this team has performed pretty well and has a manageable schedule going forward. So I think that's where Iowa is going to ultimately fall at. This is really important to watch though, because this is going to be the first basically test to say, where is Iowa at? How far do they need to climb? And now when you look at Iowa losing to Wisconsin, you think, man, we'd really just lost control or even more control of possibly having a Big Ten West title. I'm going to tell you, there's a lot of opportunities still on the table.

All Iowa needs to happen, they need to win out, which is a very manageable schedule, mind you. They have Northwestern, they have Minnesota, they have Illinois, and they have Nebraska. They also need, preferably Minnesota, to beat Wisconsin. That is the easiest way for Iowa to make the Big Ten championship game. That would also put them at 10 wins and 2 losses, which would be one of the best seasons in Iowa Hawkeye history, and especially under the Kirk Ferentz era.

So there's a lot of things to still play for, and the schedule, again, is manageable. We're not going to be playing a defense like we did against Wisconsin. We're not going to be playing a Purdue team that has a George Carl Aftis. These teams we're taking on going forward are not going to have those positional players that can make such a big impact on the outcome of the game. So Iowa's offensive line that has been struggling is going to get a little bit of a breather going up against the Northwestern, going up against the Minnesota, Illinois, and even Nebraska to a degree.

Now Nebraska's defense is a lot better than I think people realize. They're one of the top 30 defenses in the nation. However, this is not going to be a problem for the Hawks. I think when you look at what Wisconsin does, what Penn State does, those two teams are heads and toes better than a Nebraska team. And then also Purdue's defensive line with George Carl Aftis clearly having some very strong, strong performances against Iowa. As far as the rankings go again, so Iowa is 19th in the AP, 16th in coaches, and the college ball playoff ranking does come out today as you're listening to this. It will be coming out later tonight.

I believe they have a show they're going to be doing to kind of break down where folks are at. So that'll be really interesting to see. Again, this really impacts where Iowa goes to a bowl game. And the biggest thing Iowa can do now is just win out. You get 10 wins, you're going to be in a New Year's Six Bowl, but you're not going to get 10 wins with that offensive line play that we're seeing right now because it is absolutely atrocious. Now, moving on, I want to talk a little bit about a situation we mentioned on the show yesterday with LaShawn Daniels. Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s family had a few things to say on Twitter, and we've talked a lot about Tyrone Tracy and the

fact that Tyrone has not been nearly as involved as we would have liked him to be. However, what is the problem there? Is it Spencer? Is it the offensive line play? Is it Tyrone? Is it the opportunities being called for him? We don't really know the answer to that,

but it has been interesting. And it's interesting to see that Tyrone's family is now getting a bit upset. I'm going to read this verbatim. This was posted by one of Tyrone's brothers. It said, how can Tyrone Tracy Jr. be a star player redshirt freshman season, almost breaking a record with two NFL prospects, not including their tight ends to be in the spotlight of Iowa football all preseason and season on every flyer event promotion interview picture, but rarely touching the ball one time a game under no staff changing circumstances. I just want to know how that's possible to do nothing wrong, but work and work and work to improve your game to show that,

that last season wasn't even my best season, and to get treated like you can't help a team you already have earlier in your career. The opportunities aren't even there. Y'all didn't even give him a chance to mess up, and the crazy thing is he's even better than he was. But at the end of the day, it's y'all team, and y'all can do what y'all want or feel is right for the team to win games. But towards the end of someone's career, time cannot be wasted.

So if you know you're not going to use someone with NFL talent, how they should be, why take away from their career? Tell them they can't play for you so they can find somewhere that's best for them. They will use them how they should. That is quite the lack of an endorsement for the Iowa coaching staff. Clearly, there's some frustrations. Tyrone has done everything right in the media. You can tell he loves this team, but this is a guy to watch, a guy who I expected to be the breakout player, a guy who I thought could be an all Big Ten type of receiver. He is not getting the touches that I thought he would.

And I can't tell what it is, to be honest. There are several times where he's had opportunities and had some drops. Some of his routes haven't been as crisp as I would have liked to see them. But the ball is also just we're not getting the ball out to our wide receivers at all. So it's really interesting. That'll be something to watch as we go into the off season and to see how this is handled. I'm sure a question or two might come up during the media day today in regards to that. And we'll be covering all of that on the show tomorrow. So make sure to check that out as well. I do want to tell you though, about prize picks, prize fixes, daily fantasy football made

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and also on YouTube as well by searching Locked On Hawkeyes. Before we took a break, we talked a little bit about the rankings. We also talked about Tyrone Tracy's family tweeting out some interesting comments in regards to Tyrone Tracy's playing time and touches, which we're going to get to here in a second. But I want to quickly touch on the depth chart.

We still don't have Riley Moss there. We still don't have Terry Roberts there. And interestingly enough, on the offensive side of the football, there is no Ivory Kelly Martin. Now, supposedly, Ivory Kelly Martin is doubtful going into this upcoming game as he does have an injury. I also think it'd be interesting to see if Ivory Kelly-Martin post-injury makes it back on that two deep. At this point, and not to hammer on a guy while he's down, can you trust him carrying the football?

He has fumbled several times this season. He's fumbled several times in his career. And those are, I mean, that last one was inexcusable even Kirk couldn't really mince words on that wasn't sure what exactly went on thought the quarterback got the ball where it should be and it looked like the looked like Spencer Petras did so I don't know what was going on with Ivory there but I'm really excited to see Gavin Williams get some playing time I've been really impressed with him a couple games ago he got a lot of opportunities and even in passing downs was able to get involved in the passing game, make a few catches, make a few guys miss. So I'm really excited to see how Gavin Williams performs as the number two running back going into

Northwestern. Also, as I said, Riley and Terry not on the depth chart. We thought we might be able to see Riley Moss against Wisconsin. Clearly didn't hurt too bad. Now we're going to talk a little bit about Jamari Harris, who is still listed as a starting corner and how he did against Wisconsin. But overall, it wasn't a necessity to have a Riley Moss versus Wisconsin against the Northwestern team as well. It's not going to be as concerning. You are obviously going to want to get Riley Moss back sooner rather than later though. The fact that he's not on the depth chart is concerning though. Terry Roberts, we know really nothing at this point. We knew he was out. We know he has an undisclosed injury that he

suffered in practice, but what's going on with Jamari or for Terry, we're not sure. That also hurts on special teams as well. We had one punt against Wisconsin that hit around the five yard line and bounced a couple of times. A couple of our guys are kind of looking around. That's the kind of play Terry Roberts gets the football and he downs it deep in the other side of the field. The ball went into the end zone, gives him the ball 20 yards out. That's how big of an impact Terry Roberts can have on the special teams. So again, Jamari Harris taking over that starting cornerback slot for a second week, as far as we know behind him, they have Xavier Williams on both sides.

They decided, elected to not list the fourth string corner at this point. So getting a little bit worrisome about the depth here, but it'll be really interesting to see what Kirk Ferentz says in regards to these injuries in today's press conference. We'll be breaking down tomorrow. Will Riley Moss be able to go? Last week, he very quickly said no. Is he going to know already? What about Terry Roberts? What actually happened with Terry Roberts and how long will he be out? That's also something I'm going to be really excited about taking a look at as well. Let's dive deep into the PFF analytics for this grade, telling you a little bit more about what happened in this game.

One of the big things coming out of this game was the storyline that should I will be playing Alex Padilla over Spencer Petras. There were some people on Twitter that were legitimately shocked to see Spencer Petras as the number one quarterback. I'm not sure what to tell you. Spencer is going to continue to be the number one quarterback. Now, granted, it sounds like he might've got it banged up a little bit in the game against Wisconsin.

And then when you saw Alex Padilla come in there, yes, he got sacked twice, but he's also able to scramble once and made a play on his feet and deliver a very accurate football to Sam Laporta down the sideline. When Iowa's offensive line is struggling the way they are, you kind of got to look at and evaluate every position. Spencer might be the leader in the locker room, but does he give us the best chance to win?

So I'm going to take a look at one stat in particular, but we're going to go through all of them real quick from a passing perspective. Spencer Petras graded out 66.6 according to PFF, not the worst passing grade you could have by any means. He was 9 of 19 for 93 yards and a 47.4% completion percentage, zero big time throws and zero turnover worthy plays though. He did have a 75% adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for the fact that there were three drops in this game

for him that would counted. Now there's several other times where I felt like the wide receiver probably could have gone up and get the ball. What was interesting though, is his yards per attempt were 4.9, not taking a lot of shots deep. One of the keys I thought going into this game was that Iowa needed to take shots deep to loosen up the Wisconsin defense. They didn't, and they paid for it. Only 9 of 19 for 93 yards. His time to throw was 2.54 seconds. Now, why that's interesting is Alex Padilla was in there not as much as Spencer, but in his limited amount of snaps, Adia was in there, not as much as Spencer, but in his limited amount of snaps, he had 2.99 seconds to throw. Same offensive line, almost a half second more to throw. That is very much in large part because of his ability to move around in the pocket and get out of the pocket and make plays

with his feet. Last week, we talked about what Iowa could do to improve on a struggling offensive line. You can chip block. You can lead more guys in just to overall block, have a quicker passing game, or have a mobile quarterback. We saw Iowa try to have a quicker passing game. We saw some attempts at chip blocks, but we have not seen the mobile quarterback yet. And if Iowa wants to go far, you need to consider putting in a guy who's going to have a little bit more athleticism and be a bit more dynamic back there at the quarterback position. The one time Spencer Petras tried to scramble, it looked like a 65-year-old man was trying to run out of the pocket. That same play, Spencer got four or five yards. Alex Padilla could have got a first down.

CJ Beathard probably could have got a first down. Ricky Stanzi probably could have gotten a first down. Spencer Petras is the most or the least unathletic, least athletic, I should say, or most unathletic quarterback we've had starting at Iowa in a very, very long time. And it is not the problem, but it's compounding the problem we're already seeing with this offensive line. Half a second difference between Alex Padilla and Spencer Petras in time to throw. It'll be interesting to see as Iowa plays Northwestern, if Spencer struggles or if this offensive line struggles, if Iowa would be willing to make a change in game to give them a spark, to get things going. This is too talented of a team to lose because you don't want to put in a backup quarterback

who can make some plays with his feet. Too big of a game. Absolutely too big of a time, too big of a season, too much talent on the defensive side of the ball and at certain skill positions on the offensive side of the ball for Iowa to not be willing to make that change if things are not going well from a quarterback position against Northwestern. Now we all know pass blocking was atrocious. The pass blocking grade 50.6, not the worst they've had this season. Honestly, one of the better ones, which is really saying something

about how bad this pass blocking unit has been. They allowed 11 pressures and 5 sacks. Mason Richmond had a rough day. 57 snaps, a 51 pass blocking grade. Allowed 5 pressures and 2 sacks. Alongside him, Nick DeYoung struggled as well. He had a 0 pass blocking grade and 13 snaps, allowed two pressures and one sack.

Jack Plum also wasn't the best, but definitely wasn't the worst in this game. And 44 snaps had a 67.8 pass blocking grade, allowed one pressure and one sack. That right tackle spot has been a revolving door, and until Iowa can get that figured out, they're going to have some problems. Now, no one's really focusing on Mason. I think at this point, people realize he's a young guy. They're trying to get him snaps. He's going to be better as his career progresses,

but it is definitely tough to watch him go through this much of a learning and growing pain phase that we have seen. Five pressures and two sacks, not good for the young left tackle. Meanwhile, Tyler Linderbaum had a fantastic performance as always, 57 snaps, zero pressures, graded out at 72.7 pass blocking grade and a 72.1 run blocking grade. I also want to call out Connor Colby had a phenomenal game as well in 50 snaps had an 80.2 pass blocking grade and a 72.1 run blocking grade pretty darn good all things considered especially that second half the offensive line definitely got a little bit more going and I saw this actually posted I believe by Scott Dockerman saying that in those situations I was playing a lot more two tight end sets again

scheming things a little bit differently, you have two guys in there that can block a bit better or have guys that can block more. You also have two guys who can go out and run routes if need be and match up well against almost any linebacker unit in the entire country. It gives Iowa a competitive advantage when you have Luke Lachey and Sam Laporte on the field, and that's the only time they scored against Wisconsin was when they had both those guys

primarily doing two tight end sets and running the football pretty well in those situations. Coming up, we're going to talk a little bit more about the receiving unit. The snap count says that Keegan Johnson is actually getting the starter reps. We're going to talk a little bit about running and then wrap up with defense again.

I mentioned this earlier in the show. We're struggling on the offensive line, but the defensive line might actually be the bigger problem. We're going to talk about all that here in just a few moments. I do want to tell you about BetOnline.ag because they are where I go to get all my betting needs in. BetOnline remains the number one spot for all basketball and football action this season.

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I do want to talk about the receivers though. They did not do Spencer Petras any favors in this game. Four drops overall throughout the game. One by Tyler Goodson on what would have been a first down, two by Keegan Johnson, and one by Sam Laporta. There's also one, Nico Regani probably could have came down with one. I know it was a bad pass, but when you're getting rush in the pocket so quickly, it's tough to be willing to set your feet and really get the ball out there. You're thinking about so many other things.

So there's several opportunities where I felt like Iowa maybe didn't get credited with a drop, but probably should have been. Now what I thought was really interesting is after that tweet I saw from Tyrone Tracy's brother, I went to look at the snaps, and I found something interesting. Keegan Johnson, 44 snaps, Nico Reganey, 35 snaps, Tyrone Tracy Jr., 31 snaps, and Charlie Jones, 20 snaps. Keegan might not be the starter on the depth chart, but he is getting starter type reps

and he needs to get more involved in the game. When you see the way he ran with that end around, how do you not want to get Keegan Johnson involved? He is one of the best yard after the catch ability players we have on our team, without a doubt. And the way he runs, he runs like a running back. LaShawn Daniels was very impressed by him. In that 12-yard run, he made two guys miss tackles because he broke them and ran them over. Keegan Johnson, again, I will be on this train for a while. We need to continue to get Keegan Johnson the football. Apologies for the old voice cracking there. On the defensive side of the football, Wisconsin is not a good passing team. And coming into this game, they were graded out as a worse pass blocking unit than Iowa was. Yet in this game, Iowa only generated four pressures in the

entire game. Only three from defensive linemen. John Wagner had one, Joe Evans had one, and Zach Van Valkenburg had one. Seth Benson also had one. We are not getting to the quarterback. And when you look at what happened in previous games where Iowa was forcing turnovers, it was due to a sped up pass rush that put pressure on the quarterback and a fantastic secondary capitalizing on those mistakes. We're not getting our hands up, we're not batting balls down, and we're not getting to the quarterback, and we also have not recorded a turnover in two weeks. That is a very big concern as the defense is the only thing holding this team together at this point. Our pass rushing grade on the day at 56.9. So again, not very good. Another concerning factor is eight missed tackles.

Two of which actually came by Jamari Harris, but eight missed tackles over the course of the game. Not exactly ideal. And yes, Wisconsin is a fantastic running team, but we did not play that well in rush defense either. I mean, we held them better than Purdue did, but Logan Lee had a 59 pass or a rush of defense grade. John Wagner, 56.6. Joe Evans, 51.1. Noah Shannon, 49.3. And Lucas Van Ness, 36.6. That will not get it done when you are losing your one-on-one opportunities to make a play,

hold up blockers, and let your linebackers get to the running backs. Y.A. Black had a better game, 66 PFF grade in rush defense, and Zach Van Valkenburg had an 81.3. Outside of them, though, it was nothing to be super impressed or happy about. Coverage-wise, Dane Belton had a 67 coverage grade, Jamari Harris 67.4, Matt Hankins 61.6. Clearly, Iowa is missing the presence of Riley Moss, and I thought overall, Graham Mertz had played pretty well, and Iowa just wasn't ready for the passing plays they did. I mean, you look at that one goal line touchdown, the first score of the game, Iowa sold out on the run and just missed the tight end falling or going out into the, going out into the end zone and catching the football.

Jamari Harris thought played okay. He was targeted a lot early in the first half, allowed four catches on five targets, two missed tackles. But overall, I thought Jamari Harris played a pretty good game considering it was his first starting bit of action. But again, the quicker we can get Riley Moss back, the better for this team. The defense, I mean, they were put in a bad position though the entire day. When you have multiple turnovers on your side of the field, that is never going to be good for the defense. That does do it for our show today.

I know it was a bit quicker. I know it was a bit shorter. Again, I'm not feeling that great, but wanted to make sure I got the show out to you. As we do every Wednesday, we'll be breaking down the press conference between Kirk Ferentz and more than likely Pat Fitzgerald on tomorrow's episode to be on the lookout for that. I want to thank you all for listening to the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, and if you want more Locked On content,

check out the Locked On Big Ten podcast with Nate Dickinson, covering everything across the Big Ten, so you can get all the storylines you need to know about the Big Ten and possibly the Iowa Hawkeyes there as well with Nate Dickinson and the Locked On Big Ten podcast. Again, thank you all for tuning in. Have a fantastic Tuesday, and possibly the Iowa Hawkeyes there as well with Nate Dickinson and the Locked On Big Ten podcast. Again, thank you all for tuning in. Have a fantastic Tuesday.

And as always, Hawkeye Nation, let's go Hawks.