Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Three keys to beating Michigan State | Men's basketball adds two more non-conference games | Predicting a Hawkeye win tomorrow

Episode Date: November 6, 2020

The Iowa Hawkeyes take on Michigan State tomorrow so we have the three keys to victory for Kirk Ferentz's squad which we break down for you. We also have two games being added to the men's basketball team's non conference schedule which we will discuss before giving our predictions and gambling advice on tomorrow's game.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order.BuiltGoVisit BuiltGO.com and use promo code “LOCKED,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back Hawkeye Nation to another episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. As always, I am your host Andrew Wade, excited to be back for our fifth and our final episode of the week before we get to another Iowa Hawkeye football game. We got Iowa versus Michigan State taking place tomorrow at 11 a.m. Central Time. Hopefully, Iowa can get back on the winning track.

Hopefully, on Monday, when we do our Monday morning recap of Matt Vandenberg, we can be talking about a W as opposed to an excruciatingly painful loss like we've experienced the last two weeks with Iowa getting leads and then blowing them in the second half. I think this game is going to go a little different. I think this team is inspired and motivated and ready to go. I don't think Michigan State is as good as they have been in the past. We talked about this when we did our preseason kind of preview of the games Iowa was playing, and honestly I felt like Michigan State was the easiest game they had

in their first five or six games. And that honestly still stands true. They beat Michigan, but I haven't been that impressed by Michigan, especially after watching Minnesota again. I couldn't tell if it was Michigan that was just destroying Minnesota or Minnesota just being a poor football team. I think Minnesota has regressed quite a bit. Especially after watching that game against Maryland.

And I think Michigan against Michigan State. Showed kind of what team they were. They're not an elite team like we kind of thought they were. After that first week dismantling of Minnesota. So we're going to find out a lot more though. About both these teams this coming weekend starting tomorrow morning. We got a big slate of big 10 games across the board. On today's show though, we're going to be breaking down this game, talking about the three keys for Iowa to win this game, and then we're going to get into the betting spreads as well. Before we get

to either of those things though, we do have some basketball news to cover and some Iowa Hawkeye recruiting news to cover. Then at the end of it, we're going to wrap up with predictions. So let's hop into the basketball stuff. Two more games were announced for Iowa's non-conference schedule. They're going to open their season in 20 days. Actually, I think it's 19 days at the point that you're listening to this. North Carolina Central on November 25th. They've also added Northern Illinois to their non-conference schedule. So if you look at what we know so far, obviously we have the conference schedule, which we're all aware of. We haven't gotten that released yet. The Big Ten is being slow per usual.

Hashtag fire Kevin Warren. But we do know some of the non-conference games. So Iowa has North Carolina centrals to open the season, Northern Illinois, they get Gonzaga, UNC, Iowa State. Plus, you know, there were still rumors that they were going to host their own tournament. I don't know what the validity of that is at this point. I haven't heard any other rumblings about that, but it'll be a lot of fun this season. We're going to get a lot of very good games for the Iowa Hawkeyes men's basketball team.

It's going to be a lot of fun. Don't forget about the women's basketball team. We haven't heard a lot of very good games for the Iowa Hawkeyes men's basketball team. It's going to be a lot of fun. Don't forget about the women's basketball team. We haven't heard a lot about their schedule. I'm sure we're going to get that soon, but I'm really excited to watch this women's basketball team. Obviously they lost Kathleen Doyle, who was a revelation last year in the absence of Megan Gustafson, but we have Kaitlyn Clark, a five-star top five recruit in the country. She should be starting or playing significant minutes as a true freshman. I'm excited to watch her play and see what she can do for this women's basketball team. Also, along those recruiting news front for the Iowa football team, the class of 2021

recruitment just got a little bit bigger. Iowa offered JoJo Johnson. He's an athlete out of Merrillville, Indiana. Again, he's in the class of 2021, a 5'11", 170-pound athlete at this point, currently leaning a little bit Michigan State. That's why this game is a little bit important for that. Iowa just extended him. He is projected to be a defensive back. They have none of those in the class, especially after Jordan Oladukun did decommit from the Iowa Hawkeyes. So this would be a huge opportunity for them. And I think if they beat Michigan State, they continue that recruitment. Phil Parker is the

head recruiter, so we know what he can do with defensive backs. That is a really cool opportunity to continue to be on the lookout for from the Iowa Hawkeyes perspective. Right now, currently sitting at 16 commitments. Hasn't been a lot of news coming out of the recruitment front in that class of 2021, so it's been interesting. I still expect them to add between three and four guys, possibly to finish up the year, but as we know, as we've seen with other Iowa football players, sometimes those guys, they get the very end, or the guys who end up being some of the best players. Look at George Kittle, for example, a guy who got offered on the last day of recruiting. In the Big Ten, I want to quickly do a roundup of the games before we hop into the Iowa-Michigan

State game, but at 10 a.m. we have a good slate of games. Number 23, Michigan versus number 13, Indiana. Michigan favored by three. I actually expect Indiana to win that game. I'm not convinced of Michigan, especially after watching that game against Michigan State last week. Nebraska takes on Northwestern at 10 a.m. as well. I hate betting against Northwestern, and I hate betting for Nebraska, so this makes it really tough, but I'm going for Nebraska in this. I think they win, and ultimately, as an Iowa Hawkeye fan, you want Nebraska to win because you want Northwestern to lose.

If Iowa wants any resemblance of a chance, they need Northwestern and Purdue to lose at least three games and Iowa to win out. Now that is a slim chance of that happening, but you want any opportunity you can. So Northwestern needs to lose that game. And I think Nebraska has the ability to do it. Their defensive line is strong. They can control the line of scrimmage. Nebraska has two mobile quarterbacks who can throw the ball not very well all the time, but they can throw the ball, and I think that will hurt Northwestern

who, against Iowa, there really wasn't that running threat from quarterback. They were able to drop eight back, so I think Nebraska can take advantage of that. Maryland versus Penn State. Penn State favored by 25 points. I honestly don't know what to make of this game. I think Penn State wins, but I think Maryland covers in that. Also at 130, we got Minnesota versus Illinois. Minnesota favored by 7 over Illinois. I'm not going anywhere near this game, but I think Illinois can cover that. And then Rutgers versus Ohio State at negative 37.5.

Clearly, I believe Ohio State is going to win. I would also stay away from that. And then Rutgers versus Ohio State at negative 37.5. Clearly, I believe Ohio State's going to win. I would also stay away from that. You just never know with Ohio State and some of those big teams when they have such a high margin of the spread. You just don't know what they're going to specifically do, right? They could get up big and just put their backups in and not see a lot of production. Clemson, we've seen them do a really good job of still putting up points. Ohio State, we don't know really what they have behind Justin Fields, so I'm not really going to touch that. And obviously, the Wisconsin-Purdue game was canceled this week. So that is the Big Ten Slated Games. Again, giving you the rundown there. You can also find my picks on my personal

Twitter account, Wade underscore Andrew. That's where you can find what I think is going to happen in this week. Coming up on segment number two, we're going to hop into that Iowa versus Michigan State game, talking about the three keys to win, before talking about the betting spreads on segment number three, and then giving you our final predictions. That'll all be coming up after we get back from this message. And I do have a very important message for you,

because if you're anything like me, I'm constantly on the go. It's just go, go, go, go, go. I never take a second to just relax and chill. My wife gets so annoyed at me too. So I was like, why do you have to keep going? Why can't we just sit down and not do anything? But when I ultimately decide to chill or when one of my favorite things to do is hike 14ers. And at the top of that 14, when I get a chance to chill, I grabbed myself an ice cold Coors Light. I grab myself an ice-cold Coors Light. Nothing is more refreshing than an ice-cold Coors Light at the top of a mountain after climbing up a 14er. It is awesome looking over the Rockies and drinking the only beer that really represents the Rockies, and that is Coors Light. Coors Light is a cold-loggered, cold-filtered, and cold-packaged beer.

It's literally made to chill, and it's as crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. Like I said, nothing more perfect than drinking a Coors Light on top of mountains. Coors Light is the one I choose when I need to unwind, so when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light in the new look delivered straight to your door at get.coorslight.com. That's right, have it delivered

straight to your door at get.coorslight.com and always remember to celebrate responsibly. This message is brought to you by Coors Light, a part of the Coors Brewing Company in Golden, Colorado. We are back for segment number two of the Locked On Hawkeyes podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes. And I want to get into the three keys to win this game. And honestly, I feel pretty confident in what I've been saying the last couple weeks

as far as what did Iowa need to do to win those games. They were unable to do so. Against Northwestern, I thought it was really important for Spencer Petras to get in rhythm, and he did, and then he got out of rhythm. And Iowa couldn't be dumb, couldn't make turnovers, and couldn't commit penalties. They did a good job of cleaning up the penalties. Late in the game, Spencer Petras started to get a little erratic with his throws, but overall, I felt like they were in a position to win that game and they kind of stuck to what I had kind of thought were the keys of the game. This week, though, a little bit different.

The first thing I think is very key in Iowa winning this game is forcing Michigan State to dink and dunk and really what that means is, don't let them get over top of you. What they did a great job of against Michigan, and Michigan has two new corners, both the corners from last year went to the NFL, they allowed them to get over top of them. We need to stop Michigan State.

For some reason, as we talked about with Matt Sheehan of Locked on Spartans yesterday on the crossover episode, make sure to check that out, did a great job there. I thought he did a fantastic job of covering Michigan State. Michigan State's really developed a downfield passing attack, whereas they have typically been more conservative offensively. They are ready to throw the ball deep, and they have a few wide receivers who can get past that last defense, that last line of the defense. However, Iowa does a fantastic job of typically keeping people in front of them

and forcing teams to play clean, smart football and being willing to take that 5-yard throw as opposed to the 50-yard throw. So this is going to be a battle of basically two philosophies. One wants to get deep and one wants to stop you deep, and Iowa has done a better job of cleaning that up against teams that do like to get deep, specifically Purdue, who always like to go deep over Iowa. They've cleaned that up. I think if you can force Michigan State to continue to drop the ball underneath, do those five, ten yard routes, whatever, you're eventually going to get Rocky Lombardi to mess up. You want him to throw the ball more, more opportunities to make mistakes.

I don't think Rocky Lombardi is this godsend that people are thinking he might be for Michigan State after last week's game. I do believe there's a lot of issues there, and I think if Iowa can force them to throw underneath, you'll eventually get some pick, some interceptions in that game. Key number two to winning this game is to vary up and stick to the running game. Last week, they got away from running the ball in the second half. That hurt them. They got one-dimensional. Northwestern was dropping eight guys back. They couldn't find passing lanes because Northwestern knew they were going to pass. However, they were very successful, I felt like, with running the ball out of shotgun.

I thought they did a great job with the wildcat as well. And then what we saw last year against USC, what we saw a little bit against Purdue, was a little bit more involvement with the wide receivers in the running game. Iowa needs to focus on having a bit more deception. They can't just ground and pound like they have done for the last 20 years. They need to vary it up a little bit, mix it up, change it up. Whatever you want to say, they need to incorporate more end around, jet sweeps, inside zone runs from the shotgun, wildcat,

maybe some read option wildcat. There's a lot of things Iowa can do. They have the athletes there. They have the experience and the depth at running back. There is no excuse for not running the ball well. And I think that what the biggest issue is, they cannot show their cards right away. I mean, they did an okay job in the first half of lining up as if they're going to run the ball and then doing some play actions, but they need to vary it up so the defense doesn't know exactly where they're going each and every time. So that's, I think, key number two to winning this game versus Michigan State,

mixing it up in the run game and sticking to the run game. You cannot get one-dimensional. You cannot have Spencer Petras throwing the ball 50 times. I don't care who the hell it is. I don't care if it's Ricky Stansy. I don't care if it's Drew Tate. You do not want to be throwing the ball 50 times if you're Iowa. That is not how Iowa plays football. Now granted, I feel like Drew Tate and Ricky Stanzi would have had a little bit more success, but that's neither here nor there.

Spencer Petras is a younger quarterback. And number three, the third key to this game, utilize the QB sneak. I am sick of being stopped on second and short and third and short. Stop getting, stop getting, you know, where we talked about with the running game, wanting to mix it up. Stop trying to get all cute with second and short and third and short. Give the ball to Spencer Petras, run behind Tyler Linderbaum, and get that freaking first down. That is not a hard concept.

We've seen it work so well. I don't understand why they're not using it more. Until it gets stopped, use it. I guarantee you any Iowa fan out there is not going to be pissed off by doing a quarterback sneak and getting stopped once. They're going to be like, you know what? Makes sense. We've ran it so successfully 50 times

before that we are bound to get stopped. But it's so successful, you need to run it until it gets stopped you cannot tell me that a six foot five spencer petrus behind a tyler linderbaum cannot get enough of a push to get one freaking yard nate stanley was the goat at that last year and i believe spencer petrus has the frame to do it as well we've seen him be successful running the quarterback sneak this year so it's we've seen that it's be successful running the quarterback sneak this year. So we've seen that it's been successful. Why can we not do it more? Why are we getting cute on second and short

and third and short? Get the first down. Extend these drives. Give the ball to Spencer Petras. Let him run behind Tyler Linderbaum. There's no excuse for that. It has been such a successful play for Iowa. I don't understand why this is an issue. So that is my key. Key number three is, and really it kind of boils down to just being better on third down in general. Iowa struggled to stay on the field. They needed to do a better job of getting off the field. I mean, defensively too, you could argue that Iowa has not done a great job of keeping teams off the field, especially against Northwestern.

But those are my three keys. The first one, again, let's reiterate. Iowa needs to keep Michigan State in front of them. Do not let those guys get deep. Do not let those fast wide receivers get behind them. Do not let Rocky Lombardi burn them deep. If they can keep them in front of them, I believe they can force Michigan State to make a few mistakes.

Key number two, stick to the running game. Kirk Ferentz said it last week. He kind of alluded to it, but we shouldn't be throwing the ball 50 times in running game. Kirk Ferentz said it last week. We shouldn't, you know, really, he kind of alluded to it, but we shouldn't be throwing the ball 50 times in a game. We need to incorporate the run more. That is what Iowa football is all about. Incorporate the run and then get a little bit, you mix it up on the running game. We saw it work so well against USC.

I know Amir Smith-Marset is out, but Iowa is not lacking with playmakers at that wide receiver position. They're not lacking with playmakers at the running back position. I want to see them mix it up. You need to keep the defense off balance. They cannot look at it and be like, yep, run right. That is what's happening. They know where we're going.

They know what we're doing. We need to mix it up a little bit. And then finally, key number three, convert on third down and do it by starting with that quarterback sneak. Utilize Spencer Petras to get those first downs. I think if you do those three things, Iowa comes away victorious. I think Iowa has more talent than Michigan State. I reviewed them in my preseason preview.

I feel like Iowa is better than Michigan State coming into the season. I feel like Iowa is better than Michigan State now. Even Las Vegas thinks that Iowa is better than Michigan State. And that's what we're going to cover on segment number three. We're going to break down the betting lines and then give you our predictions for this game. So that'll be coming up on segment number three after a few messages

from our sponsors. Alright, we are back for our third segment of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast and our final segment of today's Friday morning episode. I hope you have enjoyed the show. If you love the show, make sure to give us that five-star review and follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Subscribe wherever you downloaded it at as well.

That way you can have the episode downloaded directly to your smart device whenever we post, which is Monday through Friday. And just a reminder that we do have our awesome new show every Monday. We have Matt Vandenberg, former Iowa Hawkeye wide receiver, breaking the game down like I know I can't because I'm not from within the Iowa football program. Having a former Iowa football player allows you to get a new and I think a refreshing and fantastic insight into what is happening in these games. Matt Vandenberg has done a fantastic job. But let's get into the betting lines. So this game has not moved a lot. The spread right now is 6.5 in favor of Iowa.

66% of the bets have gone on Michigan State, though. The money line is at minus 265 for Iowa, with 53% of the bets going on Iowa. And the over is 46.5, with 56% of those bets going on the over as well. ESPN, though, they believe Iowa can win this game. 76.6% prediction that Iowa will win this game. Again, I do think Iowa can win this game. I would be shocked if they don't. That being said, I thought Iowa was going to beat Purdue as well.

They did not. I thought Iowa was going to beat Northwestern. They also did not. So, a lot going to beat Northwestern. They also did not. So a lot can happen in this game, obviously, but we want to kind of look at what can happen, right, and why I feel like Iowa can beat Michigan State. We talked about the three keys to beating Michigan State on the show, on segment number two.

And now let's get into those spreads, though, and really what to expect. And let's start with that spread itself. I do believe this is going to be a close game. There have not been a lot of games that were decided by more than a touchdown in the history of this series. I'm looking back. Let's go through the last 10 games. 17-10 loss to Michigan State in 2017, 10 games. 17-10 loss to Michigan State in 2017, 16-13 in 2015, 26-14 in 2013, that was a bad year for Iowa,

not a great year I should say, 19-16 win in 2012, 37-21 loss in 2011, 37-6 in 2010, 15-13 in 2009, 16-13 in 2008, 34-27 in 2007.

So you can see over the last 10 years, I mean, over half of them have been decided by a touchdown or less. I'm actually going to count it up. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Six of the last 10 have been decided by a touchdown or less, which makes this game interesting. I know the styles of play have definitely been more conservative as well. So you look at this over, you look at the spread,

I think the easy thing is to lean into that and take Michigan State to cover, but Iowa to win. I hate taking teams to cover against my team, so I'm personally not going to bet on that. I'll probably be the homer and take Iowa to win by more than a touchdown. However,

I personally feel like my prediction is going to be somewhere in that 17 to 14, 20 to 14 range Iowa winning, which is why I'm also going to take the under. The total of over 46.5, 56% of bet on that. I'm taking the under. When you look at the against the spreads, we don't get a lot of details from that either though. Iowa's 0-2 this season against the spread, mostly because they've been favored and they lost both games. And then Michigan State 1-1 against the spread, again, because they won when they were the underdog and they lost when they were favored. So tough to judge based off, you know, some teams you can see trends. Iowa typically is a good team to

take against the spread when they are the underdog, but not necessarily the best team when they are the favorite in that game. When you're looking statistically, though, kind of what to expect, Michigan State is allowing 31 points per game and only scoring 27. Iowa's allowing 22.5 and scoring 20. Passing-wise, Michigan State's throwing the ball 321 yards in the two games. Iowa 241. Rushing-wise, 88.

Iowa 136. Allowed on the ground, though, Michigan State is allowing 129, whereas Iowa's allowing 123 and a half. And passes allowed, Michigan State's allowing 235, and Iowa's 206. What that says to me, though, is that Michigan State, as we talked about, likes the air of the ball out. They like to go deep. They like to chuck it long.

They're not very focused on the running game, which is typically a staple of a Michigan State offense. That bodes well for Iowa, where their strength lies into their secondary, not their defensive line, where they've struggled a little bit with stopping the run this year. Meanwhile, Michigan State hasn't done as well stopping the run. There was a couple years there where they were allowing like 30 yards rushing a game. They are not the same Michigan State rush defense as they have been in the past. This is good for Iowa as they try to control the game

by controlling the run, controlling the line of scrimmage, and then allowing that to open up the play-action pass for Spencer Petras. I'm excited about this game. I think it really goes in favor of Iowa, especially given, you know, just how these two teams match up in this game. As far as weather goes, we have a beautiful Saturday in November. November 7th, Saturday is going to be 70 degrees. It looks like no precipitation at this point, no real wind. So we had the wind be a factor last week. I don't expect that to be an issue this week. So really, we're just getting two teams squaring head off. As far as we know, no issues with COVID either. Again, I am taking the under on this over under. I hate doing that when it's my team

because I want them to score a ton of points but I do believe it's going to be a low scoring game I also believe that Iowa isn't going to cover the spread however I will be betting on Iowa to cover the spread simply because I hate rooting for that and I just love betting on my Hawks but I do think it's going to be a close game

under 7 points but Iowa does prevail that's what Matt Sheehan said as well when we talked to him on the crossover episode yesterday with Locked on Spartans. He believes that Iowa wins this game. If they don't, that is a concern, and we'll be talking about that on Monday morning's episode of the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast. I appreciate you all tuning in, though. Hope you had a fantastic time listening in to this under-30-minute daily show covering your Iowa Hawkeyes. If you loved it, give us that five-star review.

As always, Hawkeye Nation, have a fantastic weekend, and let's go Hawks!