Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Three keys to beating NW and why Wisconsin's cancelation actually impacts the Hawkeyes too

Episode Date: October 30, 2020

Wisconsin cancels a game against Nebraska due to a Covid outbreak, and for once, I actually understand why Nebraska is so upset. It also doesn't help the Iowa Hawkeyes, and we will explain why before we dive into the betting odds for the game. We wrap up the show with our three keys to beating the Northwestern Wildcats.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order.BuiltGoVisit BuiltGO.com and use promo code “LOCKED,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to another episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. As always, I am your host, Andrew Wade. I'm excited to be back for this Friday morning episode of the show. And boy, do we have a lot to cover today. I was planning on getting into the betting odds, talking about my three keys to winning the game and my predictions, and then doing a little bit of a roundtable around the Big Ten. I shouldn't say roundtable,

just do basically around the Big Ten, kind of a recap or a preview of what's going to happen this weekend. But there was a lot of news that came out over the last 24 hours, starting with two Iowa Hawkeyes who are transferring from the program. We're going to talk about that. Iowa gets another top 25 team non-conference for men's basketball this year. That's going to be a lot of fun. And we're also going to talk a lot about what is going on with Wisconsin, Nebraska, and the Big Ten. As much as I hate Nebraska, you might be kind of shocked to hear, I don't think Nebraska is completely in the wrong here.

So we're going to cover all of that on today's show and also get into the betting odds, the game time notes, and the three keys to winning along with my predictions. But first, we're going to hit the other things. We're going to start with the fact that Shadrick Bird and Yahi Judy are transferring from the program. Bird, a running back, came in with last year's class. Judy, a linebacker who came in with last year's class. Kind of a late recruit, Judy was. Shadrick Bird, though, is an interesting one because there was a lot of expectations coming into the season about him. Not this season, but there's a lot of expectations about him being a key productive

player within this offense in a couple of years. I mean, right now he's clearly stuck behind a few guys, most notably Tyler Goodson. So that is going to be an issue, right? But Mekhi Sargent graduates after this year. Ivory Kelly Martin has one year left. So that basically, I mean, he's close. He'd be a redshirt sophomore when he'd be able to probably start getting legitimate playing time. But keep in mind, this year is free, so he's a redshirt freshman this year. He'll still be a redshirt freshman next year. My guess is he just wants to get more playing time quicker, and he thought he was going to be able to do that with Iowa, but not looking like it.

Get a little bit of a surprise there. Judy was expected to get some playing time this year, especially with how depleted that linebacker group was, but he sounds like, according to Chad Leistico, he was late to a pregame meal on Saturday, wasn't put in the plans for Saturday, which kind of frustrated him, and then he quit the team earlier this week. So obviously we're just getting that information now, but they are both in the transfer portal. It is important to note, just because you're in the transfer portal doesn't mean you're leaving, but I would say the writing's pretty much on the wall.

These guys are both gone. Unfortunate to see two Iowa football players leave, especially two redshirt freshmen only a year and about a month into the program, but I do wish them the best, and we all should wish them the best going forward. They just were in unfavorable positions, especially Bird getting stuck behind Tyler Goodson, one of the more elite athletes we've seen come across that running back position in Iowa in the last 10, 15 years. And then Judy, with Iowa, they've moved to a 4-2-5 more predominantly.

That's kind of the thing in college football, especially the thing in the Big Ten, is more teams move away from the traditional Big Ten offenses, the ground and pound. The linebacker position is becoming a little bit more irrelevant for Iowa. They're recruiting less linebackers, and they have a couple guys. I mean, Jay Higgins was expected, you know, got in on special teams this past week. I mean, they have a couple guys that likely have surpassed him in a sense. So I guess it kind of makes sense. Unfortunate to see. Also in Iowa news, the men's basketball team has got their official matchup for the ACC Big Ten

Challenge. They are taking on UNC. Another team I thought they might be able to take on is Duke, which would have been a lot of fun playing a top 10 team in Gonzaga. Playing another top 10 team in Duke would have been a blast. UNC coming off a pretty rough year this past year, but they are still ranked in the top 25 according to most preseason polls. Should be a lot of fun. We're going to cover that game in more details over the next week, two weeks. But wanted to at least let you know we are aware of it. It's going to be a blast.

Iowa has a very tough non-conference schedule. I mean, it's put up or shut up time now. They know they're a good team. Now it's time to show it. They're going to have a chance to show it prior to getting into a tough Big Ten conference schedule. It is worth noting that Illinois got Duke, so that'll be fun to watch and see how well Illinois does against a Duke program as well. Should be a lot of fun though. It's a lot of fun seeing Iowa have such an incredible schedule. The only thing I'm upset about is the fact that we won't be able to be there and watch it. I would love to be at Kinnick watching Iowa take on North Carolina.

That would be quite the atmosphere. Now moving and kind of switching gears, I want to touch on the Wisconsin-Nebraska thing. And I know this is not Iowa football, but it does pertain to the Big Ten. And what is going on to me is quite interesting. So if you haven't been paying attention, Wisconsin's top three quarterbacks are out. Jack Cohn, Broken Ankle, Graham Mertz, and Chase Wolfe both tested positive for COVID. They are out for the next three weeks. And they were down to basically their fourth string quarterback and a walk-on who actually came from the state of Iowa at Wisconsin. A few coaches tested positive, a few players tested positive, and they decided to cancel the game against

Nebraska. Now, that doesn't seem like too big of a deal, except for there are literally very strict protocols in place, according to the Big Ten, that can dictate whether or not the game should be postponed or not. Or canceled or not, I should say. Now, again, why this is such a big deal is that Wisconsin canceled without even reaching those levels that would dictate the Big Ten canceling the game. And the Big Ten has very strict protocols in place. We've seen other teams play without 20 of their guys, and Wisconsin chooses not to play. And I think what's frustrating about that, especially if you're a Nebraska fan, is the fact that that's a game that

Nebraska could have won. I thought they played pretty well against Ohio State in missing Graham Mertz. I mean, it sucks because it's kind of what we're going through with the pandemic, but a lot of teams are also facing that. If Nebraska was out without Adrian Martinez, they would still be playing that game. I would 100% believe that. Now, you can say they have Luke McCaffrey. I think they are playing the game even without Luke McCaffrey because they want to play football. So Wisconsin canceled that game, and it just counts as no contest at all, which is very frustrating, especially from a

Nebraska perspective where they feel like they could win that game. I understand. Wisconsin doesn't count anything against them for not playing that game. And now they have the opportunity to prepare a little bit more for potentially Purdue next week, get their fourth string quarterback a little bit more ready and geared up, ready to go. So that's frustrating. Nebraska then tries to schedule University of Tennessee Chattanooga, and the Big Ten also says no to that. Now, some people are saying that makes sense. It's what the Big Ten said before. No one should make an exception. Well, the Big Ten also put in protocols for teams to cancel games, and Wisconsin went a little bit rogue and wanted to cancel the game

anyways prior to even getting to those levels. Now, Nebraska wants to play some football and they have a team in University of Tennessee Chattanooga whose protocols are actually matching, if not going above and beyond the Big Tens. They felt like it was a safe team to play. UTC also came back with a lot of negative tests. They were ready to play, and the Big Ten shut it down. To me, I understand the rules that are in place, but I think the Big Ten needs to be a little bit more flexible. Nebraska's trying to play some football and trying to win some games,

and they found an opponent. They found an opponent who was also going along with the guidelines that the Big Ten is, and now the Big Ten is not doing it. Now you've also got to factor in the fact that some cardiologists are basically, the CDC, I believe actually took off the recommendation for cardiology testing for most instances of athletes with COVID. So there's some more, you know, studies coming out that it might not be as dangerous as initially anticipated. Um, I just think this whole thing is a big mess and Wisconsin kind of started it.

I'd be super pissed if I were Nebraska. And it is interesting because it means now Wisconsin could have lost that game, which would have made them at one and one. That would give Iowa a better shot to go to the Big Ten championship game. Now they don't have to play that game. And with the Big Ten, you have to at least play six games. And after that, it just counts from losses. So if Iowa plays eight games and loses two games, and Wisconsin plays seven games and loses one game, in that case it would be to Iowa, Wisconsin goes to the Big Ten championship game despite Iowa beating them and despite Iowa playing one more conference game than them. So that's how it impacts Iowa from that perspective, and to me, that's really frustrating. I think the Big Ten is

consistently dropping the ball this entire process and continuing to muck up this entire situation and I think screw up the entire situation. I did say muck, not the other word. I think that's a very important thing to clarify there as well. That was intentional to say muck because I think they have really messed up this entire thing. So that is my thoughts on that and that's how it impacts Iowa too, especially if Iowa gets late in the season and isn't a possible chance of going to the Big Ten championship game. And Wisconsin didn't have to play that game against Nebraska where they could have possibly

lost on a one-week turnaround trying to get their backup ready. So that's kind of the interesting situation we are dealing with now. Coming up, though, on segment number two, we're going to get into some actual Iowa football talk because that's what I know you all are here for. We're going to talk about this game taking place tomorrow against Northwestern. Before we do that, though, I do have a message for you from the folks at BuiltGo, the guys and the girls who made BuiltBar. BuiltGo is your source of energy.

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59 degrees, sunny, nothing too crazy there from a weather perspective. The announcers are Dan Orlovsky, the former Detroit Lions quarterback, Bob Wischerson, and Allison Williams. Again, I know I'm bad with names. I apologize. If you have a better pronunciation, please let me know because I am not good with names all the time. So please let me know. DM me that. The spread, though, opened at negative 3.5 in favor of Iowa,

now at negative 2.5, and 52% of the bets are going in favor of Northwestern. I'm going to get into that spread here in a little bit with my predictions, but the spread is moving towards Northwestern and making Iowa less of an overdog, Northwestern less of an underdog, simply because more bets are getting placed on Northwestern. The over-under actually opened up at 48%

and has dropped to 46.5%. The over is actually getting 56% of the bets. I'm guessing that's after it's been dropping, but that's kind of what's happening there. And the money line, again guessing that's after it's been dropping, but that's kind of what's happening there. And the money line, again, Iowa is the favorite in this game, but 62% of the bets are going towards Northwestern.

And when we look at ESPN's power index projection, they actually are 54% in favor of Northwestern. So that's the odds, the breakdowns. But here's where I think you can make your bets on. Last week, I predicted a 27-20 win for Iowa. I predicted the under. It went 24-20 and hit the under. I at least hit that part, which is nice. Iowa did lose that game. I do think, though, had Iowa just not had the uncharacteristic turnovers, they left a couple points on the board. They could have come away victorious, and we still could have hit that under. It would have been 24-27.

That would have been 51 points. So I do think Iowa could have won last week and hit that under. I don't think they would have covered the spread because it was at three and a half, but that was my prediction last week. I would say pretty darn close. This week I'm predicting 31-27. I do think Northwestern's offense is better than last year's, clearly. I mean, anything could poop on the wall could be better than last year's Northwestern offense. So this year, I am taking the over, and I'm taking Iowa to cover that spread, especially at 2.5. Buy that at 2.5, I'm taking it. At 3.5, I would also take that. I'm predicting 31-27.

I think Northwestern's going to run the ball really well. That's actually one of my keys to the game that I'm going to hit on here in a little bit. But I do think Northwestern is going to run the ball really well, and's actually one of my keys to the game that I'm going to hit on here in a little bit, but I do think Northwestern is going to run the ball really well, and they're going to put points on the board, but I do think Iowa's offense can take advantage of a defensive line that is pretty bad for Northwestern. They didn't get tested against Maryland. I do think they get tested against Iowa. Iowa's going to run the ball well, but ultimately it comes down to whether or not Iowa can pass the ball and whether they can not make a bunch of mistakes

like they did. And that's one of the three keys that we're going to talk about on segment number three. But I do believe they can do those things. And that's why I'm taking 31 to 27. I'm taking the over on that 46 and a half. I'm taking Iowa to cover at two and a half. And I'm taking Iowa to win. So if you're a betting person like I am, put money on that.

That's what I'm saying. Let me know how you do this weekend. That is my predictions coming in to this game. Coming up, though, on segment number three, we're going to actually get into a little bit more details. We're going to break down the three keys to winning the game and give you again those predictions to wrap up

the show. That'll be coming up in just a few short seconds. Alright, we are back for our third and our final segment of the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. I already gave you my prediction. Iowa wins 31-27, but how does that happen and how could it happen? There are three keys, in my opinion, to Iowa beating Northwestern. First is

don't beat yourself. Second is dare them to throw. And third is get Petras in rhythm. And so let's expand on some of those. First of all, don't beat yourself. Northwestern plays Iowa like Iowa plays other teams. Northwestern is almost never more talented than Iowa, but there's a reason why they consistently beat Iowa.

It's because they play Iowa at Iowa's game. They do it better. They control the ball. They run the ball. And they don't make mistakes. Iowa needs to do that in this game. I do believe they're going to get better coming into game two. As we talked about Matt Vandenberg last week was a product of what we've seen for a lot of college football teams this year. Teams are struggling without the ability to tackle team in practice.

Teams are struggling without all the extra reps. Teams are struggling without live game situations that we typically would see Iowa take on in Miami of Ohio for. 10 penalties, 100 yards, 3 fumbles. That stuff needs to be cleaned up. If they don't clean that up, Northwestern is going to do exactly what Purdue did to Iowa. They're going to beat them. And it's going to be a game where Iowa fans feel like we should have won, just like we feel like we should have won against Purdue. I do not think we're going to see that sloppy of a game again from Iowa. The three fumbles, uncharacteristic, especially because, you know, the lineman knocking the

ball to Tyler Goodson, the other two fumbles, Makai Sargent should have had a better handle on that, in my opinion. That was a pretty ridiculous, I mean, the guy barely touched him. I do believe with Brandon Smith, he probably didn't know that guy was coming up from behind. That is a tough play regardless, but you have to be able to protect the ball. I'm assuming Iowa is working on that this week. I do not expect three fumbles. I do expect maybe an interception from Spencer Petras, but again, we need to limit the mistakes as much as possible. And that specifically goes to the penalties as well. 10 penalties, 100 yards,

two personal foul penalties. Those are things that we need to clean up. Amir Smith-Marset needs to know he cannot pull a player off the pile. I know what he was trying to do. He was trying to get them off of his teammates. I understand that, but we need to be able to handle that. Tyrone Tracy with that crackback block, or I guess you want to call it a blindside block. I thought that was a little bit ridiculous of a penalty, but nevertheless, just get in his way. Be smart about where you are in the field. That's 30 yards and penalties that Iowa and killed drives too.

So that is going to be huge. Iowa cannot have it. And the two false starts. Oh my gosh. Talk about the terribleness. At least they're getting used to Spencer Petras. So I expect those things to improve. Iowa needs those things to improve if they want to beat Northwestern.

So key number one is do not beat yourself. Key number two, dare them to throw the ball. The run game killed us against Purdue. I know we're all talking about David Bell and how he had three touchdowns, 13 or so catches for a lot of yards. That was a big pain point. But the biggest thing was Purdue was sustaining drives by running the ball, and Iowa wasn't able

to tackle them had they been able to stop the run game we're not in that situation where we lose that game I know obviously it's easy to point to David Bell yes if we stop David Bell we also win that game but I think against Northwestern a team who had over 300 yards rushing against Maryland with three different running backs plus Peyton Ramsey as a relatively at mobile quarterback we need to stop the run and force them to throw. I'm not super impressed by their passing game. It wasn't bad, and it's not nearly as bad as last year's, but Peyton Ramsey doesn't have a strong arm, and I do trust our defensive backs.

I know we have a little bit of inexperience, but you look at, you know, Matt Hankins has been playing for a couple years. Riley Moss has got a playing time the last two years. Julius Brent's also playing time. I mean, we're inexperienced to an extent. We don't have a ton of starts, but these guys have played college football. They played in big-time situations. So I trust our corners over a defensive line and a linebacker group

that's a little bit banged up right now with Austin Schulte being out, obviously with Jack Campbell being out. We're struggling a little bit. So I do think we need to dare them to throw. We need to put a few more guys in the box. We need to stop the run game. If we can stop the run game, put all the pressure and the onus on Peyton Ramsey. He is a good quarterback, but I do believe our secondary is going to be an advantage

over their wide receiver group and Peyton Ramsey as a whole. So if we can stop that run game, that will kill drives. I mean, we saw that against Iowa two years ago. Northwestern just used Isaiah Bowser over and over and over again, and it just demoralized and crushed Iowa. It kept their defense on the field. So the run game, we need to stop the run game and dare them to throw the ball. And then my key number three to winning this game is getting Spencer Petras in rhythm.

We saw him have a lot of ups and downs in this past week's game against Purdue. I mean, it was to be expected. He had some good things. He had some bad things and the bad things, dare I say, reminded me a little bit of some of the stuff we saw from Nate Stanley, right? But you know, some of the inaccuracy, especially on the deep ball, Spencer Petras needs to get in rhythm. He needs to get comfortable early. I actually expect him to throw the ball a little bit more and then start working the run game in simply so they can get Spencer Petras in the groove right away. He definitely had some jitters.

You could tell it was his first start. He was getting a little bit of oomph into that ball, air mailing it a few times, chucking it hard on crossing routes, you know, six-yard crossing routes. You need to just put a little loft on it. You don't need to chuck it so hard. So I do think it's important to get Spencer Petras comfortable. And that will be another key. Again, they lost, they put, they lost several points because he couldn't hit deep balls. Brandon Smith, open. Amir Smith-Marset, open. Hell, that screen play in the fourth quarter, open. Amir Smith-Marset,

he just chucked it hard right at him. Those are things that he needs to get better at and more comfortable at doing. And I do think Iowa needs to get him in rhythm early on in the game so that we don't have to worry about those kind of things happening. Again, second start, the nerves are not going to be there nearly as much. I do expect a better performance out of Spencer Petras, as we've talked about all week on the show. But those are my three keys to the game.

So if Iowa can just limit the mistakes, dare them to throw the ball, and get Spencer Petras in rhythm, Iowa wins this game. I think there's no question about it. Iowa wins that game if they do those three things. Again, don't beat yourself. Dare them to throw and get Spencer Petras in rhythm.

Iowa wins this game. That's my take on the game. Again, I predicted it at a win of 31-27 in favor of Iowa. Let me know what your thoughts are on the game. And as a reminder, on Monday's episode, we're going to be breaking down this game with Matt Vandenberg, former Iowa Hawkeye wide receiver, giving us that inside insight to what to expect coming forward the next week and also breaking down the game in a way that I'm not able to.

I think his analysis is so detailed and great. I wanted to bring him on the show for you, the fans, so I hope you all appreciate that. Tune in for Monday morning's episode as we do our Monday morning recap with Matt Vandenberg. As always, Hawkeye Nation, I appreciate you tuning in. If you love the show, give us a five-star review, or just subscribe if you haven't already

wherever you downloaded this podcast at, and follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Hawkeye Nation, have a fantastic Friday. Have a fantastic weekend watching Iowa play football, And as always, let's go Hawks!