Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - Three keys to Iowa beating Purdue | Why you should take the Hawkeyes to cover | Game time predictions

Episode Date: October 23, 2020

We break down the last minute news and notes you need to know before diving in to the three keys to Iowa beating Purdue tomorrow. Segment two has us covering the betting odds on the game before we wrap up with our predictions.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order.BuiltGoVisit BuiltGO.com and use promo code “LOCKED,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back, Hawkeye Nation, to a Friday morning episode of the Locked On Hawkeyes Podcast, your daily podcast covering your Iowa Hawkeyes on the Locked On Sports Network. And let me tell you, I didn't think this day would come. That's right, this is the last episode before we see Iowa football. That's right. Iowa football is playing tomorrow against Purdue, and I am absolutely jacked up.

I'm going to have four TVs going. I want to have both Big Ten games going at all times, including the Iowa game on my big screen TV. I'm going to be watching the other college football games as well just because I love college football. But I am pumped to celebrate all day the return of Big Ten football. And obviously I'll be watching that Wisconsin-Illinois game tonight. I don't know about you, though, but I am pumped. And on today's show, we're going to be talking about the game time information you need to know.

Obviously just giving you some of the odds and ends, some of the weather report and how that could impact the game, and then talk about the betting odds before hopping in to our predictions. That's what it's going to be every single Friday. And as a reminder, after Iowa wins this weekend, catch us on Monday with Matt Vandenberg. Every single Monday is going to be Mondays with Matt. He's going to be helping us break down that weekend's game, talking about the successes, the failures, what needs to improve.

All that stuff is going to be happening on our Monday morning show, now featuring Matt Vandenberg, former Iowa Hawkeye wide receiver. So let's hop into the show right now with what is going to happen. What is the game time information? If you do have the Big Ten Network, it's lucky for you because Iowa is going to be featured on the Big Ten Network tomorrow afternoon, 2.40 p.m. is kickoff on October 24th. The radio stream is going to be on HawkeyeSports.com. As always, the announcers, Corey Provis, Anthony Heron, and Coley Harvey. As far as injuries go, nothing new. It sounds like there were a few positive COVID tests.

There's obviously always the chance that a false positive does happen and we're going to miss a guy or two, and it does sound like Jack Campbell is out. We talked a little bit about that throughout the week. So nothing major there. Obviously the linebacker position, a position that I call the weakest position in the Iowa football program as of right now, but lots of really talented young guys. So with Jack Campbell out, we expect a lot of younger guys to be playing.

You're obviously going to see Nick Neiman as probably the starter, Justin Jacobs, Seth Benson. You might even see Jay Higgins out there on special teams. Could get a chance. He gets a few snaps here and there. I do expect Iowa to be in that 5-6 DB look as we talked about yesterday and the day before throughout the game, though. From a weather perspective, 51 degrees, no precipitation at this point. wind could be up to 10 miles an hour obviously the weather is super unpredictable this could change if it gets a little colder gets a little windier that definitely favors Iowa anything that limits the passing game 100% favors Iowa anything that makes the passing game perform well there's not going to be wind if it's

going to be a beautiful day that definitely hurts Iowa simply because Purdue's main form of attack is the passing game, as we talked about on a couple episodes. And that is one of the keys to the game. So out of the three keys for the game, I would say don't let Purdue go over the top. Make them dink and dunk. Last year, it wasn't pretty. Iowa did allow a lot of yards, but they didn't allow any big plays to Purdue. They didn't let them go over the top.

That'll be huge, especially with Rondell Moore and David Bell. They need to also win that special teams battle. Special teams are going to be very important. Obviously, I think when I say special teams, not even just Amir Smith-Marset, but they need to be able to pin them deep when they're punting. If they punt, they also need to contain on kickoff returns against Rondell Moore because he is so electric. And regardless of whether they need to contain on kickoff returns against Ronda Moore because he is so electric. And regardless of whether they need to establish the run game, it's Spencer Petra's

first game as a starter. They're going to need to establish the run game, give him a little bit of protection, allow that play action to set up before he can start attacking vertically with the potent passing attack that hopefully Iowa has this season. The captains for the game are also going to be Keith Duncan, Chauncey Golsan, Nick Neiman, Mekhi Sargent, and Tyler Lindebaum. Now let's move into kind of a Big Ten schedule in general before we hop into the betting odds. We have a busy week.

We got Wisconsin versus Illinois tonight. We got Northwestern versus Maryland, Nebraska versus Ohio State, which should be a landslide. Penn State versus Indiana, which honestly I think could be a trendy upset pick. It's what I'm picking as a trendy upset pick at least. I do think Penn State's a solid team, but I think Indiana's underrated. Minnesota versus Michigan, I do think Minnesota does win this game, although I don't think it's going to be as great of an offensive attack as we expect for either team. Minnesota having a new offensive

coordinator, Michigan having a new quarterback, that could be an interesting game. And Rutgers versus Michigan State, another trendy pick to take that spread for Rutgers. Michigan State, an offseason of a lot of turmoil, having a new coach who really hasn't been that successful across his tenure as a head coach, and not having the opportunity to really coach his team up during these COVID times. Only been in the state of Michigan for a couple months, so tenure as a head coach and not having the opportunity to really coach his team up during these COVID times. I've only been in the state of Michigan for a couple months, so that is concerning to me.

Rutgers returning Greg Sciano. How quickly can he return or turn this program around? That remains to be seen in this Big Ten re-debut, I should say, with the Rutgers program. Coming up on segment number two, we're going to hop into those betting odds for the game, getting you covered there. I like to fancy myself a solid better myself. So we're going to talk about that on segment number two. Before we get into that, though, just a reminder,

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while you're chilling you can get the beer that is literally made to chill it's a mountain cold refreshment Coors Light is cold lagered cold filtered and cold packaged it's literally made to chill what a perfect compliment to any Saturday routine that involves watching Big Ten football. It's as crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. Perfect for a moment to unwind. And I would know considering I live in beautiful Colorado, just five minutes away from Golden, Colorado. So while you're watching that game, just a reminder that Coors Light is the one that I choose when I need to unwind. So you should choose it too.

So when you want to hit reset, you want to watch football, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light in a new look delivered straight to your door at get.coorslight.com. That's right. You can have Coors Light delivered directly to your door at get.coorslight.com. And as always, as you're watching Iowa dominate Purdue, celebrate responsibly. With Coors, a product of Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado. All right, we are back for segment number two of the Locked on Hawkeyes podcast, hopping into those betting odds.

If you're a betting man, I know Iowa has legalized betting, so I'm sure this game has got a lot of love. People have been very excited to bet on Iowa, a team that does a pretty good job of covering the spread when they're an underdog. Depending on how big that spread is from a favored perspective, it can be a little bit tricky. Last year, Iowa went 3-2 against the spread in their final five games. The only games they didn't cover were Nebraska and Illinois. The Illinois line was ridiculous. It was like 14 points.

Nebraska's line was 4 points. I remember actually betting on the Nebraska line in Las Vegas. But you're going to love this story if you love beating Nebraska, which I hope all of you do. I was in Vegas, put a couple hundred dollars down on Iowa beating Nebraska by 4 or more. After the first half, I was watching it with my buddy, who is a Nebraska fan. We were actually there for the Las Vegas Invitational,

watching Iowa basketball, and he was watching it with my buddy who is a Nebraska fan. We're actually there for the Las Vegas Invitational watching Iowa basketball and he was watching Creighton basketball. Obviously, I was really excited going into the second half. Iowa starts slipping the lead a little bit. There's another guy at the bar though from Nebraska who's hooting and hollering that Nebraska is going to win and I say, let's bet on it.

And so we actually put $100 on Iowa beating Nebraska just straight up because he was really confident in Nebraska coming back. And then when it came down to Keith Duncan kicking that game-winning field goal, he said, I'll bet you $200 that he doesn't kick that field goal and make it. And I was like, oh, that's easy because we got Keith Duncan in the house, baby. We got the goat kicking. I won $300 from that dummy from Nebraska who basically won me all the money

that I lost by betting on Iowa to cover the spread. But that is a fun story about Iowa not covering the spread. But again, they are 3-2 typically against the spread. Purdue is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games. And in both of those times, I guess for Iowa at least, they are also 3-2 hitting the over and Purdue is 4-1 hitting the over. So let's take a look at these odds. For Iowa, the spread opened up at negative 4.5. It's now down to around negative 3, depending on what your betting side is. I've seen it as low as negative 2.5, and right now 63% of the bets are actually going in favor of Iowa.

From a Moneyline perspective, Iowa opened up at negative 185. They're now down to negative 151. I do find how it opened and how it's trending a little bit interesting simply because you would expect Purdue to trend downwards considering Jeff Braum is not going to be coaching unless his appeal somehow gets approved. I think Jeff Braum, and we talked about it yesterday with Chris Shane, Purdue alum, talking about the Purdue sideline, that Jeff Brom honestly accounts for almost a touchdown. He's such a potent, such an important piece of this offensive attack that there's a touchdown

that they're going to leave on the board simply by not having him there, not having him call the plays because he is such a brilliant offensive mastermind that runs that Purdue offense. But anyways, Iowa is now down to negative 151. That spread is at negative three ish. Honestly, from my perspective, when it gets down to negative three or lower, I typically, you know, because that the money line isn't going to be as good of odds, I typically just take the team to cover if I think they're going to win. In this case, I do believe Iowa is going to win. And I do believe they are going to cover at that negative three mark. I predict a seven-point win.

The other thing I want to touch on is the, and so obviously I take that money line bet there as well, the over-under opened at 53.5. It's now down to 53. When we were getting ready for this game, as I talked about the Iowa versus Purdue matchup a couple weeks ago doing a little bit of a preview, I said whatever the over is, hammer it. Hammer that over. I'll be honest, I'm not so sure anymore.

I did some research. Right now it's at 53. The last couple years, let's look at this. 46 last year. 74 in 2018, 39 in 2017, 84 in 2016, 60 in 2015. Obviously, these are different teams now. But with all the things that are happening, it's kind of trending towards taking that under to be honest last year Iowa showed that they could slow down the Purdue passing attack David Bell had a

great day but they weren't able to get over top of Iowa and making it make it a you know a big scoring fest where Iowa was struggling to keep up or had to keep up by any means had to throw the ball a lot they were able to contain, which was huge for that game. Going into this game, can Iowa do the same thing? I do think, obviously, Purdue did not have Rondell Moore last year, but they showed that they could contain Purdue and not let them go over top. Brian Brom is going to be calling the offensive plays, as we talked about Jeff Brom, good for over a touchdown there.

And then you've got to factor in the fact that Purdue's defensive coordinator, Bobby Diaco, a former Iowa alum as well, the last time Iowa played him, they crushed him as the Nebraska defensive coordinator with a fantastic running attack. And with it being Spencer Petras' first game, I do imagine the Hawks will rely a lot more heavily on the run game and allow that to set up the passing attack with Spencer, giving him a little bit more time using the play-action passing attack.

So with that being said, I do believe they're going to hit the under here. I think Iowa can contain. I don't think they're going to stop the passing attack, but I do think they can contain the passing attack. They'll hold tight in the red zone. And with Iowa wanting to run the ball more, that's going to obviously take down the point a little bit as well.

So right now the over is 53. I'm actually predicting the score to be 27 to 20. So, you know, pretty close to that 53, but not all the way there at 47 points that gives Iowa that seven point lead, the seven point spread and covers that negative three spread depending on where you're getting that at. So that's what I believe going into this game from a betting perspective for iowa let me know what your thoughts are let me know how you're betting iowa send me those those screenshots of those bet slips and we'll be uh we'll be rooting for iowa together to cover that spread and to hit

that under obviously hoping that purdue doesn't score that many points and iowa can have a huge uh onslaught of points. That would be fantastic to see as well. Coming up on segment number three, though, we're going to break down our predictions for the game, so stay tuned for that on segment number three. We are back for our final segment before the Iowa football team takes the field. I am absolutely pumped up for that. I hope you are as well.

Let me know what your plans are. Tweet us at LockedOnIowa. Find us on Instagram at LockedOnHawkeyes and find us on Facebook as LockedOnHawkeyes as well. Let us know what your celebration method is going to be for the return of the Big Ten and the return of Iowa football. But let's get into our predictions for tomorrow's game. I think the first one is I do think Iowa wins.

I think they win 27-20. I do predict a pretty slow first half. I think Purdue is going to move the ball. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Purdue actually has a lead going in to halftime over the Iowa Hawkeyes. I could see it being something like 10 to 7 at that point. That's kind of my thoughts. I think Iowa is going to come out a little bit slower. They are going to focus on establishing that run, as I talked about. If it gets a little bit windier, they're definitely going to focus on that run game. And from an Iowa perspective, Spencer Petras, you know, I do expect him to have an up and down game. It is his first start, unless he comes out just slinging the ball all around, which I don't necessarily expect from a

Brian Ferenclett offense, especially first game of the season as they try to work out some of the kinks. I expect Spencer to probably have anywhere between the 180 to 200-yard passing mark, one touchdown. I do expect him to turn over the ball one time. From a rushing game perspective, Tyler Goodson, I'm expecting 100 yards. I'm also expecting Makai Sargent to probably have between 50 and 70 yards as well. I think this running game is going to be specialist here. We've talked a little bit about it.

Brian Ferenc learned a lot from that USC game. And the fact that you can utilize wide receivers to set the edge, essentially. Break the edge, I should actually say. And put a little bit of motion and confusion in that offensive scheme to kind of flip the switch a little bit on the defense. We typically don't see Iowa use end-arounds as much as we did in that USC win. I think that's going to happen.

I would also love to see Tyler Goodson get split out wide and have him come in motion as well. I think that would be a lot of fun to watch in this game. But I do expect the total running attack to have over 200 yards rushing in this game. Tyler Goodson going for 100, Makai Sargent going for 50 or 60, and then obviously Ivory Kelly-Martin probably getting in another 20 or 30, and we'll see if maybe an Amir Smith-Marset, a Tyrone Tracy, get a few snaps, get a few end-arounds, and can get another 30 to 50 yards,

depending on how Amir Smith-Marset can get around that edge. That's my predictions from an Iowa offensive standpoint. Depending on on the quarterback I think it's going to be Jack Plummer I do think Iowa allows between 250 and 300 yards I actually don't think Rondell Moore is going to have a big game and the reason why is because I think Iowa is going to focus a lot of attention on stopping Rondell Moore I think you know Iowa is typically known for going a heavy zone scheme. I do think they're going to have Matt Hankins somewhat spying him to an extent. I think Matt Hankins is going to be matched up quite a bit on Rondell Moore. That's the leader in that secondary.

So I don't think Rondell Moore is going to have a big day. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rondell Moore have under 50 yards receiving. However, I expect any number of the other wide receivers, one of them to go off and have anywhere between 100 and 120 yards. It's just a fact of the matter. Purdue will find someone who is open. I do expect David Bell to have a solid game as well, but I do expect Rondell Moore to be held in check a little bit.

250 to 300 yards passing, one to two turnovers for Jack Plummer. I think the beauty of what we saw last year with Iowa is they did a much better job, again, of keeping that passing tack in front of them and not allowing huge plays. They allowed Purdue to kind of walk down the field, but it also allows for a couple opportunities, more opportunities, I should say, for a mistake to be made by Purdue as they try to dink and dunk down the field. Obviously, the greater chance of intercepting comes from having more opportunities to intercept the ball. So that is something I expect to happen tomorrow.

Again, I expect a 27-20 win for Iowa. I'm taking that spread. I'm taking the under on that game. And I just cannot wait for Iowa football to get back. It is going to be a blast tomorrow. Again, let me know how you are celebrating. I want to know what you're doing. I want to know what you're going to be doing, how you're going to be a blast tomorrow. Again, let me know how you are celebrating. I want to know what you're doing. I want to know what you're going to be doing, how you're going to be decked out. I mean, I'm ready

to rock Iowa gear all freaking day. And just a reminder to come back on a Monday morning episode touching on what happened in that game. We're going to do Monday mornings with Matt every single Monday, giving you our post-game recap. Monday mornings will hit us up there.

If you do like the show, it's a little bit shorter show today, so I do apologize for that. But make sure to like, review, and subscribe wherever you downloaded this podcast at. Just search Locked on Hawkeyes, and you'll get that episode, the episodes going forward, downloaded directly to your smart device, and follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. As always, Hawkeye Nation, have a fantastic weekend, and let's go Hawks, baby!