Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - UPSET: Hawkeyes PREPARE for TOP 10 Oregon Ducks | Can KINNICK MAGIC Strike Again?

Starting point is 00:00:00 is set, and history says, don't count out the Hawkeyes. From shocking Michigan to toppling Ohio State and Penn State, Kiddick Magic, Iowa lives for these top 10 upsets. Today, we'll tell you how they do it Saturday against the ducks. You are Locked on Hawkeyes, your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Hey welcome in. I'm Trent Condon and this is the Lockdown Hawkeyes podcast. Thanks for making Lockdown Hawkeyes your first listen every day. We have been with you for over 20 years on the radio

Starting point is 00:00:43 as I've been covering the Hawkeyes. You can hear me currently on the Iowa Sports Radio Network as we talk Hawkeyes with you there stations all across the state including Des Moines, Sioux City, Iowa City, Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities. Today we are going to break it down. The anatomy of an upset. What Iowa needs to do, if they're going to pull off the victory against Oregon on Saturday with the 230 kickoff. We're also going to be joined by Tom Kaker from hawkeye report.com as he will break things down, giving his perspective. And also, he's got to look at some of the player props that are out there that are available, not in the state of Iowa, but in other states and how that kind of paints the picture, all those presented by Fandual. Plus, a look at the

Starting point is 00:01:24 weekend coming up in basketball for Iowa. But today, it is a look at the big matchup as another top 10 team makes their way to Iowa City. And as we've been breaking things down with you each and every day, we are your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast. One thing that has become very apparent in this one going through looking at historically how Iowa does this, one of the biggest things that jumps off is we look at these top 10 upsets that I was been able to pull off. Kirk Farrant's five and one in his career as an underdog against top teams in November at Kinnick State. which is just an absolute incredible number.

Starting point is 00:02:02 But the one thing that jumps out, and as he go through and look at 2016 against Michigan, as Iowa gets it done on the Duncan walkoff, 1413. You go to the win back in 2008 against Penn State 24, 23, another walkoff victory in that one. You look at what they did against Minnesota, when the gophers came to town undefeated and ranked in the top 10 in November back in 2019, and even the one game that they lost

Starting point is 00:02:30 when Penn State came to town and that game, that was an earlier game in the season, not a November game, but when a top 10 team came in back in 2021. When you go through and you look at those games, actually 2019, excuse me, for that one. I know the one outlier is Ohio State, right? When the Buckeyes came in, the Woodshed game, 55, 24,

Starting point is 00:02:50 that was the difference. But in all of the games, one thing that stands out, more than anything, Iowa made some plays, got some breaks, forced turnovers. Yeah, I mean, it's many of the same things that we talk about. But the thing that jumped out more than anything historically is in all those games. Iowa really slowed down the run game of each of those opponents.

Starting point is 00:03:11 Now, you remember, 2016, that team came Roared in Michigan. They were running the ball against everybody. They were playing at an incredibly high level. They were able to do it in that game. Iowa held them to 2.8 yards per rush in that one. I continue on. Ohio State, different type of game, down to 5.4 yards per carry.

Starting point is 00:03:31 That is the highest mark, though, against Iowa. I mentioned the Penn State game back in 2008. Penn State ran the ball for just 3.9 yards per carry. And that goes hand-in-hand with this one. Now, this Oregon team is different. The way that they spread you out, the way that they go about things, certainly is going to make things much more difficult,

Starting point is 00:03:49 obviously, to hold them to something like 2.8 yards per carry. I mean, that's just, it's unrealistic. when you look at this realistically, what is a number to shoot for? What can you look at with the team that is, you know, putting up the kind of numbers that they are running the football? I think holding them at minimum under five yards per rush.

Starting point is 00:04:09 Now remember, sacks are also included on that. Look, if Iowa holds Oregon to under four yards per carry, I think they win this game and win this game, I don't want to say handily, but comfortably that they do win the game. It doesn't have to come down to a last second field goal

Starting point is 00:04:24 or anything like that. If they can hold them under four yards to carry, absolutely, I was cooking with fire here, and they're going to be good to go. In this environment, with the weather that we anticipate, we're going to have tomorrow. I don't think that Dante Moore is going to be able to chuck it around and throw for 300 yards against this Iowa defense. Now, here's another concern. And you go through and you look at those games and the way that they were built, these teams

Starting point is 00:04:47 were built much more differently. That Michigan team, that Penn State team, certainly those two teams were built with power running elements. So though Oregon does that, they also work in space and getting you in one-on-one situations that make you uncomfortable. And with the questions that we've seen this year with Carson Shire at the linebacker spot,

Starting point is 00:05:09 now it's Jane Montgomery, who's taken over as a starter at middle linebacker and with both of those guys, those guys out there in space does leave you a little bit concerned. Now, what Iowa has done to negate that a little bit, and you go back to the game plan against Indiana, and what it really morphed into throughout the course of that football game is they're just bringing pressure

Starting point is 00:05:29 and they're going to keep you uncomfortable and go that direction. So I think that's a huge part of this when you go through is that pressure has to be there once again in this football game. Iowa generating pressure. It's a different look

Starting point is 00:05:44 than what we're used to, excuse me, with Phil Parker. That's going to be big. Now, how else does Iowa pull off these wins? How else do they get these victories against these top 10 teams. A lot of times it is not just winning special teams. It's dominating special teams.

Starting point is 00:06:00 And we have talked throughout the course of the week. One of the more incredible stats that is out there in college football is that Oregon has allowed this season negative one punt return yard all year long. I mean, it's just unthinkable, right, to be able to do that. They do that with their punter using that rugby style punt. He runs out to his right and he does it. And he takes a really long time to delete. deliver that punt, and then I'll hit that roller.

Starting point is 00:06:25 You would think, all right, Kaden Weigin, maybe he's going to be taken out of the game. And I think that is going to be a component. Here's the other part, though. Block punts? Absolutely. LeVar Woods is one of the best special teams coaches in the country, and here's an opportunity. You're seeing something that one of the advantages you have, setting up those returns for Weegean is likely going to be negated.

Starting point is 00:06:45 But what you can do is apply pressure. Bring pressure, make him uncomfortable, and with it, potentially you can get a return set up if you go that direction. Here's another thing that jumped out, though. And these numbers from Cody Hills, who's a great follow on Twitter, by the way. Cody had these numbers. As we talked about the punt return yardage, Oregon,

Starting point is 00:07:05 again, giving up negative one yard all season long. They're first in the country. Iowa has not been very good, by the way, in that as they're 119th in the country, an opponent punt return yardage. But here's something that is very good. Kick returns. We know that they have to kick off at least.

Starting point is 00:07:23 least once. Iowa is very good at coverage. Iowa good is as very good at kick returns, eighth in the country right now in return yardage. Oregon, by the way, 91st in the country and opponents kick return yardage. There it is. So you're thinking about a weeding, weege in touchdown or a big return, maybe more likely in the kick return game than it is the punt return game. That made me pretty excited to see that there is maybe a different avenue for Iowa to get it done in the return game. Now, the other part of it is the kicking game. And this has been a conversation that we've had all season long. Our everydayers out there, you certainly know that just have continued to be befuddled of something just seems off this season at the kicker

Starting point is 00:08:10 spot. You look at what we're just growing accustomed to and what Stevens has been and Drew Stevens, a tremendous talent. But the whole operation has felt different this year. And when you look at Drew Stevens, the misses, the one he had against Indiana that would have given the lead in the fourth quarter, the opportunity that he got for the 67-yard or against Penn State. It's not just that. It's just the kicking part. It's the whole operation, holder, snapper, all of it putting together. Well, now with an extra week to prepare, hopefully you're hoping that those kinks are worked out. Because another part of these upsets that Iowa has pulled, another part of the victories that I was got is, yeah, the kicking game is a huge.

Starting point is 00:08:52 huge, huge part of it. When you go through and you look at what Iowa has done, that has been another area that they've been able to get done. From the walk-offs, Daniel Murray, getting it done, the walk-offs, victories, that is a part. So Stevens got to be ready to go. And Stevens very well could have a game winner for Iowa in order to pull off the upset in this one.

Starting point is 00:09:15 Now, there's another angle that I don't like. And it is the betting angle. you know if you listen to us every day that yes I like to dabble more than dabbled I'm what some people call degenerate gambler now I don't bet a ton I don't have a ton I can radio on podcasts right but stay within my means have some fun with it it is for me something that is a hobby I don't look at it as a money making endeavor if you follow my picks you know that usually money losing endeavor but this week everybody loves Iowa from people in the betting space to just national voices that are out there. It feels like everybody thinks, like we hope, that I was going to pull that off. Normally, that isn't great. That isn't a great angle when you are a better, and it does something that leaves me pumping the brakes just a little bit.

Starting point is 00:10:07 But here it is. Slow them down in the rush game, force a turnover, dominate special teams. Kinnick, when it gets dark, it's just different. Let's get it done. Let's talk to Tom Kakert from hawkeye report.com. Tom's going to join us. We'll get a breakdown of some Iowa basketball coming up this weekend. We'll get his thoughts on the hoopsters as they get ready for their matchup against

Starting point is 00:10:31 Western Illinois on Friday evening and just what we've seen so far. Plus, we'll get Tom's thoughts. How does Iowa pull it off? Plus some of those player props that are out there from Fandul, Iowa. Mark Grunowski over under passing yards. We'll do that as we come back with Tom Kekert on the Hawkeye Report podcast as he brings Hawkeyeye Report.com. This is the Locked-on Hawkeyes podcast.

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Starting point is 00:11:14 so we've got to go back a couple of weeks and talking about delivering in a big way. that was Reese Vander Z. Great to see him back out there. The long touchdown, he is huge for this team going forward. And when the pressure was on, Vander Z came through. No hesitation, no delay. If you've been watching week after week, you know, this performance wasn't a fluke. Van der Z, he's on a streak. And just like Reese Van der Z delivered for the Hawkeyes, DoorDash delivers your Saturdays. With DoorDash streaks, you save every Saturday you order. Stack it up all season. And you can save up to

Starting point is 00:11:45 $250, including $100 in DoorDash credits. Order this Saturday, keep the streak alive, fuel your game day only with DoorDash. Terms apply, promo period, good through November 18th. Tom Kekard joins us as he does every single Friday. Well, most Friday, if it's not Friday's one other day, but he joins us weekly. We are grateful to that. Hawkeye Report.com part of On3 Media. Hey, Tom, Trent and Ken, thank you.

Starting point is 00:12:15 as always for coming on. Get to football in a second. I want to start with basketball with you since they'll take to Florida tonight against Western Illinois. But I want to go back to the Robert Morris game. And Trent and I were probably way over the top. But it was just so different to watch a Hawkeye team so committed to the defensive end of the floor and the hustle needed in order to pull that off the defensive effort

Starting point is 00:12:41 that they did. It was refreshing to watch that, Tom. Yeah, it was, you know, that was a pretty good first, you know, five, six minutes for the McCollum era when they're out there diving for balls and just playing really good defense and allowing just two points and scoring 17 and attacking the basket and just making plays. They, they, that was a, that was a, if I think of Ben could have scripted a start, it would have looked a lot like that. just getting off to a great start. So now we'll get Act 2 tonight against Western Illinois. Western Illinois. And then next Friday, a big one, Xavier comes to town and it'll be a first probably push.

Starting point is 00:13:24 I mean, Western Illinois is going to be terrible. There are, I think, 334 at Ken Palm, right in that same range of Bartorvik. This is even worse than what you saw out of Robert Morris. But that aside, this basketball team, I know it's one game, but just seeing Bennett starts, and I know for a lot of Hawkeye fans, maybe that was their first glimpse, maybe they didn't catch him in the tournament last year, didn't watch a whole lot of Drake basketball. You just, you can't speed him up. He plays at his own pace.

Starting point is 00:13:48 He is so smart, so skilled. And I think a lot more athletic than a lot of people believe, you know? Yeah, how about that dunk? I didn't, I didn't see that coming from him. He even joked after the game had been a while since he'd had a blop dunk. So

Starting point is 00:14:03 yeah, he's just, he's a guy you can't speed up. You can't, you know, if he wants to go quick, he's going to go quick. getting he just always under control um never flustered uh double team comes at him he's fine he just he's unflappable and um it's interesting i thought and kind of just you know one of the the side things that i was watching the game i was like ben's gonna have to find somebody else that he trusts a little bit eventually because he had him out there for 35 minutes in the 30 point

Starting point is 00:14:39 game. I mean, it's just like, maybe you might want to get Combs out there or somebody out there to kind of give some minutes. But he does get him off the ball every once in a while. He'll have combs bring it up and then it goes kind of over into the corner and then stands around for about 15 seconds and then he'll come off a screen maybe and try and make a play that way. Yeah, he's got his wind. He's ready to go again. He's unbelievable to watch. He truly is. Well, here we go to tomorrow where we're not sure what the weather's going to be. I've heard it could be snow, could be sleet. It doesn't sound like it's going to be ideal, regardless of what happens.

Starting point is 00:15:15 It won't be ideal. So, Tom, but what worries me is, it's just how many people love Iowa tomorrow, both locally and nationally. I mean, you heard Herb Street, perhaps on McAfee, he's going crazy. It's just, there's too many people that love the hawks tomorrow. Oh, it's, you know how it is with the public dog, the public, home dog and everybody's jumps on. We saw that early this year.

Starting point is 00:15:44 Remember that Duke, Illinois game? Brent brought that up for it. I brought that up for. That's true degenerates. We'll remember that one. And it was just like everybody was on, oh, Duke, Duke, Duke. And then they just get boat race by like 25 points against Illinois.

Starting point is 00:16:01 And I, that's immediately my thought was like, oh, boy, there's too many people on Iowa. This is just not good. If you're a Hawk fan, and you just wish everybody would pipe down. I know you like the attention. I know you like the love of it. But for those of us who dabble in the gambling space, this is always bad.

Starting point is 00:16:20 It's just bad. You sent me over some props from the other side of the river over in Illinois that are available on state of Iowa players. A couple jumped off the page. Now, start with the passing yardage total. I want to, Ken, take a blind guess. Passing yardage for who? for Mark Grinowski. The weather's got to be factored into it.

Starting point is 00:16:46 124. 132.5. How about Dante Moore? 175. 204.5. I think Ken's like in the under on both of those. The one though that jumped out outside of the passing one, Kamari Moulton, Tom, he's been so close.

Starting point is 00:17:02 How many shoe string tackles have got him? And the one week spot of this Oregon team is their line. linebackers. Their linebackers have played out of everybody terribly in comparison to the rest of that defense. I think Moulton gets one. I think he has, rips off one of those 40, 50 yards. The number's 54 and a half. I think if Iowa wins this game, yes, Gronowski's got to play well. He's going to have to run it well. But I think Kamari Moulton has to have a monster performance. I love that one at 54.5. Yeah, that's not bad. A friend of mine who may dabble over on the other side of the river jumped on Iowa defensive touchdown plus 1,000.

Starting point is 00:17:40 Ooh, that's fun. In a game like this, it almost feels like they have to, right? Yeah, it does. Yeah, there's a fumble, a wetball, scoop and score kind of thing, something like that. Or, you know, Dante Moore picks six. You know, he reverts back to freshman Dante Moore at UCLA. And, you know, that's on the table. So, yeah, there may have been a dabble on that by someone.

Starting point is 00:18:04 someone today you know since since we're talking sports betting um sports wagering and football um did you see that the case got thrown out against the uh against the student athletes that um i mean i look i'm far from a legal expert but man i thought they had a slam dunk case against the state i really did and was dead wrong apparently yeah that's too bad um i i i thought so too because it just seemed like the whole thing was ill-conceived. Yes. And I thought maybe they'd get something done, but apparently not. So it's just too bad that so many of those guys just got ruined.

Starting point is 00:18:46 You know, just missed their eligibility. I think about like Keaton Anthony, the baseball player. I mean, going into the, you know, Big Ten tournament, and that team was really good. And he's their three-hitter or two-hitter. that lineup and he's gone and boy he's tearing it up by the way for the Phillies he's moving up so he's he's having a really solid minor league baseball career right now Tom always love to read your preview over at hawkeye report.com you really dig in deep into things I'll have people

Starting point is 00:19:19 click on the article to read your official score prediction for the game but as you were kind of unearthing things and really going under the hood is there a stat a number anything that jumped out to you that said, you know what? Maybe this does help Iowa a little bit. Give us a little positivity going into 2.30 tomorrow. Boy, I think special teams are a big edge for Iowa. I just do. I think that's going to be an advantage.

Starting point is 00:19:45 I don't think they have a kicking game that sticks with Iowa. I don't think they have. They've got some talented return guys, but they're young and they haven't really done a lot yet. Like, you know, Decorion Moore is electric if you've seen him play. He's really good, but he hasn't done a lot yet where Weegean has just been electric. He's just, every time he, I swear to these guys, every time that another team punts to him, I'm at the edge of my seat. Yeah. In the press box.

Starting point is 00:20:17 I'm just like, okay, here we go. Here we go. You know, it's just like, it's watching like, you know, just this carnival ride. You don't know, you know, you think it's just going to be spectacular at some point. And it usually is. It's just he's special. I'll tell you what I was really impressed by, but it won't probably matter because Iowa doesn't throw the ball very much. But they're past defense is really good.

Starting point is 00:20:44 And they got a lot of young players back there, but they're really, really good. So that's one thing. And their top three backs are all average in like seven yards of carry. at least some of them almost 10 i mean it's just crazy and and i think two of the three of them are freshmen so i mean it's they've just got crazy talent on that team and i haven't even brought up the the cidic kid the tight end who's just who'd be a first round picnics in april tom kaker at hawkeye report dot com part of on three media tom thanks for doing this as always appreciated we'll talk to you in seven days thank you tom okay thanks guys yep good

Starting point is 00:21:27 talk to you. Tom Kickers, we check in on the Hawkeyes. Thanks as always to Tom for joining us here as we get ready for kickoff. I just couldn't be more excited about it as we count down to the hours until the 230 kickoff on CBS Iowa, Oregon. Before that, we got some Iowa basketball. We'll talk about that as we continue Iowa hoops on the docket. What do we want to see against Western Illinois? We come back with more locked on Hawkeyes. When the opening whistle blows on a new repair, get your crew moving forward with Supply House. Order today and see parts on your doorstep tomorrow. Over 280,000 plumbing, HVAC, and electrical items from the most trusted brands in the business.

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Starting point is 00:23:19 Big thank you to our everydayers out there, our everyday listeners. We are your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast, your team every day. That's what we do here on the lockdown network, the number one network for podcast. All right. Here we go. It is time. Iowa football against Oregon.

Starting point is 00:23:37 The opportunity that awaits. We've taken it to Terfee Avenue. I can't wait to get over to Iowa City. Can't wait to do tailgating even in the rain. Might be cold. Might be miserable. I don't care. I'm just so excited for this.

Starting point is 00:23:50 And this is what we live for. This is what we go through the off season leading up to the season. To have this opportunity, to have this chance to have now also a little extra carrot, you know, in the past is just about pulling off the upset. Now there's a potential playoff bid that's connected to this one. And the excitement that goes along with that, not just beating a national brand in Oregon, not just showing off Kinnick Stadium, not just showing again what it's to be a Hawkeye. But now we also have the opportunity of,

Starting point is 00:24:26 you're on the table, you're in the college football playoff. And that even adds even more to the excitement. Before that, Iowa basketball against Western Illinois. Iowa was a huge favorite at the time of the recording. Iowa, a 29.5 point favorite against the leathernecks who are bad, maybe one of the worst teams in their league this year. I'm interested in see tonight, do we see Trey Campbell? Trey Campbell, Trey Thompson.

Starting point is 00:24:53 Do we see Trey Thompson? You know, he didn't get out there in the, opener against Robert Morris. And that's something that I definitely want to see, obviously, still 17, should be a high school senior, what he can do. Some more extended play, potentially from Kail Combs, who's going to be the backup point guard this year. I'd like to see a little bit more from him and him playing out there, both in combination

Starting point is 00:25:16 with Sturts, as we saw a little bit of that, with Bennett Sturts and him playing together, but then also on his own. I mean, I know Bennett Sturts never wants to leave the floor. and it took 35 minutes before we see him leave the floor against Robert Morris. Want to see some more? The starting lineup, I think that's also intriguing. As Sturts told us before the season, they don't know before the game begins, who's going to be the starter,

Starting point is 00:25:43 something that Coach McCollum likes to keep the guys on their toes, keep them engaged, and not knowing who's going to be the starter if it's going to look different tonight. So those are just a couple of things. Obviously, we want to see them just on the defense event. And I know there's so many people that are coming. coming to town for the Oregon game. A lot of people from, I've heard from outside the state and outside the region.

Starting point is 00:26:02 If you're coming to one game, coming back for one game, this is a lot of one that people had circled. So because of that, we're going to see any kind of bump on a Friday night for the attendance, but just seeing them play defense. Yes, simple, but it was fun. We'll see more of that. Certainly coming up here this evening. That'll do it for today.

Starting point is 00:26:22 Thanks for being with us. Potentially depends on how the night. goes. So getting up early, getting Iowa City on Saturday. We'll see how tonight goes. I'm calling high school football as well. Depending, might have a rapid reaction podcast after the Western Illinois game. We'll know when we do get back, though, from Iowa City on Saturday. We will have that for you after the Iowa-Oregon game. Oh, boy. I mean, it just, it doesn't get bigger, right? And here we go. Oh, the buildup. It's fun. And now it's game time. Hawkeyes, pull it off. Blow down that run game, force a couple of turnovers.

Starting point is 00:26:55 and Bolton, let's have a big game out of Kamari. That's what I'm looking to see. We'll talk to you after it goes final. Thanks for being with us and making Lockdown Hawkeyes, your first listen every day. Again, make sure you hit subscribe. If you're watching us on YouTube, if you're on the podcast side,

Starting point is 00:27:10 five-star reviews, looking for more of those. All that helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans and let you know when we are coming to your daily Iowa Hawkeye podcast. Thanks for being with us. We'll talk to you again tomorrow. Until then, go Hawks. Thank you.

Starting point is 00:27:27 Thank you.

Locked On Hawkeyes - Daily Podcast On Iowa Hawkeyes Football & Basketball - UPSET: Hawkeyes PREPARE for TOP 10 Oregon Ducks | Can KINNICK MAGIC Strike Again?

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