Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - 100 Days Away From Kansas Jayhawks Football: What Needs to Happen for KU to Win the Big 12 in 2024

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, officially on the countdown, we're 100 days out from KU football. Let's discuss what has to happen for Kansas to win the Big 12. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can find me on Twitter at DJohnsonRadio. You can find our show here with Locked On Jayhawks anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page

Starting point is 00:00:34 where you can like and subscribe to the show. We are officially 100 days out from the first KU football game. They're playing on a Thursday to open up their season, so we get a few days a little bit early. It's like early access to the NCAA football game. They're playing on a Thursday to open up their season. So we get a few days a little bit early. It's like early access to the NCAA football game, right? You get that because KU football is playing a little bit earlier in the week there. So we're going to discuss what has to happen for Kansas to win the Big 12. We're going to go into the number 100 and what that means for this year's football team and some stats that relate to that. And a little bit of an update

Starting point is 00:01:02 on Bryce Foster, the center from Texas A&M who's transferring, and Kansas has a visit scheduled, and we'll discuss kind of all that on this episode of the show. Let's start right here with what has to happen for Kansas to win the Big 12. Obviously, Kansas was a little bit fortunate with how the schedule came out, and again, this is not me saying like this is, you know, I don't know. I guess you get a bounce back from one year to the next because this past season, Kansas had a much tougher Big 12 schedule

Starting point is 00:01:32 than some of the other teams that finished up top. Like West Virginia, for instance, won nine games in the Big 12 this year. I think they played one team in the top half of the conference, whereas Kansas played every team who finished in the top half of the conference, except for like West Virginia.

Starting point is 00:01:44 So like you had one year where you had a really tough schedule it's only right that you would have one year where you do get to skip Utah and Arizona this year so a little bit fortunate there and that certainly works into KU's favor in all of this and obviously there is a flip side to that though which is um you don't get an opportunity to beat one of those teams right that um like hypothetically you might need to beat one of those teams, right? That like hypothetically, you might need to beat one of those teams because it would help you out in the standings when all is said and done. So, you know, there's only so much you can control as we're going to go into some of these things

Starting point is 00:02:15 of what has to happen for Kansas to win the Big 12. Like you could have a 10-2 season, which is I sit here today, and if Kansas goes 10-2, I would feel pretty good that they're going to have a good shot at playing in the Big 12 championship game. But who knows? Maybe Utah goes 11-1 and Arizona goes 10-2, and they just have the right tiebreaker, whatever that would be since they're not playing. I don't know if it'd go to record against the next best team or whatever. So there is a certain amount you can control, but let's start right here. Jalen Daniels has to stay healthy. That is obviously a given if Kansas wants to win the Big 12 now I'm not going to put an exact

Starting point is 00:02:50 number on it because staying healthy is kind of relative could Jalen Daniels play in 11 of the 12 regular season games and miss the Illinois game which won't count to the Big 12 standings and they win the but yes like that would certainly count Could you have him miss one game in Big 12 play and maybe a Cole Ballard or Isaiah Marshall can fill in for that one game? Or could you afford one loss? Yeah, of course. But overall, he has to stay relatively healthy.

Starting point is 00:03:13 If I was to put a number on it, you're talking about probably at least 10 games. I mean, I guess again, if we're talking Big 12 and the non-con games don't count, but yeah, he has to stay healthy. But it's not just about number of games played. it's about being healthy in the games you play playing to your full potential because you are not dealing with some sort of a nagging injury so jaylen daniels has to stay healthy now unfortunately that's not something you can really control like there's

Starting point is 00:03:38 certain things you can do that it seems like the staff is trying to be precautionary about him with practice and you can tell him to slide more and you can tell him to protect his body a little bit more. Like there are certain things you can do to try to help, but there's nothing you can do. You can't wrap him in bubble wrap and put a seatbelt on it. You know, like there's only so much you can do. It is football. It's going to happen. And it's not like he's been injured in the past because he's wanted to be injured or because he hasn't wanted to play.

Starting point is 00:04:04 Like he's a fierce competitor. He doesn't want any of this to happen. But for you to win the Big 12, he's going to have to stay healthy. And that probably applies to him more than any other player on the team. Like I don't want to get into, you know, all the players and stuff because you don't want anything bad to happen to anyone. But like hypothetically, if name your other player on the team gets hurt, yes, it would be a big loss. And yes, it would suck for that kid. And yes, nobody would be a big loss. And yes, it would suck for that kid. And yes, nobody would be rooting for that.

Starting point is 00:04:27 And yes, it would all those things. But KU has depth in a lot of the positions, which they don't really have at quarterback. Like they might have the future depth, but it's not like you take a drop off from one of KU's receivers to Doug Emelian coming off the bench. Doug Emelian is still really good. You know what I mean? I don't know that the backup quarterbacks are that ready yet. Find the next good pass rusher. That has to happen for Kansas to compete to win the Big 12 or to win the Big 12.

Starting point is 00:04:53 They've gone from – they moved Kyron Johnson from – Kyron Johnson played like every position possible on defense. I think he was a safety at one point, a linebacker at one point. I think he was a defensive end at one point. And then eventually circled back. I think he was a linebacker the year before the light bulb staff came in, moved him to that defensive end spot and had a great year. Ended up being a sixth round draft pick with the Philadelphia Eagles, led the team in sacks.

Starting point is 00:05:15 So you lose that guy after the first year and it's like, oh, how are they going to replace him? Well, they find Lonnie Phelps in the transfer portal. Phelps comes in and arguably was even more productive than Kyron Johnson. He ends up going undrafted, but probably even more productive at the collegiate level for Kansas. Then it's like you lose him early, and you're like,

Starting point is 00:05:30 oh, how are we going to replace him? Especially in the case of Phelps, where unlike Johnson, who was graduating at the end of the year where you expected it, Phelps ended up obviously being undrafted. It was almost like, oh, you kind of expect him to be back for another year. It didn't happen. So then you're having to move early on something. And coming into the year,

Starting point is 00:05:45 it was like, okay, who's going to start at that defensive end spot. It's like, okay, Jeremy Robinson next to who, and it ends up Austin Booker. I guess technically some games he like didn't actually record the start, but he was like, I don't know, but he was basically a starter for all intents and purposes. And he just killed it. He was awesome.

Starting point is 00:06:06 And he took that to even another level. So you've actually like slowly grown this a little bit better. Now this year, that just doesn't seem likely. That's going to happen again. I guess you could say by Job and Deshaun Warner and Dak Brinkley were all actually higher rated recruits than any of those guys that they have brought in before. So you don't completely count out that the staff is going to get more out of those guys

Starting point is 00:06:26 than you expect. But the difference is all those other players you had in the past were at least developed in college for a couple years. Like Austin Booker was still going into his redshirt sophomore year. He had two years in the college program, right? Where I guess by job is only one year off. So I don't know. You don't totally count it out.

Starting point is 00:06:41 But can you do it with the sum of sum of the parts so to speak right can jeremy robinson improving plus dylan woodkey plus by joe plus to sean can you get at least something similar and if you can get uh similar like doran's armstrong numbers from his freshman year when he was a bit more undersized from a couple of your young freshmen than an aggregate it's it's like the uh the money right? Oh, we lost, I forget what player they were talking about at the time, Johnny Damon or whoever it was. And Brad Pitt, who's playing Billy Bean, goes, we can't get the next, again, I don't remember what player it was, sorry, Johnny Damon or whoever.

Starting point is 00:07:17 We can build him in the aggregate. And that's what you're kind of trying to do, I think, this year at the pass rush. But you have to figure out something there to make that good. I do think it'll help the KU has good secondary that maybe you can mix up coverages. Maybe those guys can hold for an extra half second, second back there that'll give your pass rush a little bit longer to get there.

Starting point is 00:07:34 I think it would behoove Brian Borland this year to be a little more exotic with some of the blitzes to maybe make up for this. But yeah, that has to happen. Someone who's been a good player has to take a jump to being an All-American. So somebody who's been a good player, I think, has to take a jump to being a great player. What happens when your team wins a conference title? Is it a little bit of a chicken and egg?

Starting point is 00:07:55 Yes, where it's like, if you're winning more, you're going to get more award recognition. But there also is a little bit of it where, hey, the player's playing better and he deserves the award recognition, which led to more team success, i.e. you have Aqib Tlaib, who is this all-Big 12-level corner. He goes to be an All-American in your Orange Bowl season. He went from being a really good player to a great player, one of the best DBs in the country that year, and obviously goes on to be a first-round draft pick.

Starting point is 00:08:21 It's those sorts of things that you don't need everybody to do that, but you need somebody. So who would that be be for Kansas could it be Jalen Daniels could it be and Jalen maybe we've honestly seen that it's just more of a matter of the health could it be Kobe Bryant going back to the corner discussion Mello Dotson right a guy who they've already been very accomplished all big 12 first team corners can they jump up to being all-american level corners like that could absolutely happen what about one of your receivers you know we saw it showcased in the bowl game LJ Arnold or a Quentin skinner or luke grim maybe it would be tough because they have so many different options between those three to throw to that the stats

Starting point is 00:08:51 won't be there but like yeah what about devin neal going for mean you know in this all big 12 stud running back to a heisman candidate or an all-american candidate or something like that right can somebody make that jump you don't need a lot of it but it really helps if you can have one or two of those guys make that. The offense has to click right away under Jeff Grimes. You don't have the luxury of really have the feeling out process. The good news is there are a lot of similarities there. I'm sure some of the verbiage and terminology is going to be a little bit different,

Starting point is 00:09:18 but I think they're probably keeping some of the same stuff in there with just Jeff Grimes kind of switching it up a little bit there. They have to find a way to make that a seamless transition. I think when you're looking at position unit, the linebackers have to jump overall as a unit, because when I look at the defense, I say the DBs should be even better than they were a season ago. I know you lost Kenny Logan, and that's a big loss in secondary, but when you bring back Kobe Bryant, Mello Dotson, Marvin Grant, OJ Burrows, and you have even more depth, I think, this year in the secondary with the Dye brothers and Taylor Davis.

Starting point is 00:09:48 And at the corner position, I'm really high on what Jamil Croft can be and Demarius McGee. I mean, who knows if you'll have as much proven production as the backup corners, but I think you have actually more talent at the backup corners this year. So, like, you look at that, that's a little bit better. I really like their four- or five-man rotation at the defensive tackle position. Again, you're still working on the pass rush a

Starting point is 00:10:07 little bit and defensive end, but I like the strong defensive end spot. I think the linebackers is one area where if you're looking at, can the defense be a little bit better than last year? That's an area that has to jump up big time. And I think it's very much possible because I think Cornell Wheeler is going to have a big season. I think JB Brown's going to have a big season and that's two big parts of it right there. But, yeah, you do have to make that jump as a unit. And then, obviously, you have to get the right breaks. You know, any time you have a good season,

Starting point is 00:10:31 which maybe you did as part of the schedule a little bit here, but you have to get some breaks along the way. It might be one game where maybe you got a break to win the game. It might be a couple games, whatever it is, right? Think back to TCU, the year they went to the national title. How many backup quarterbacks did they play along the way, right? There's so many things that you can look to like that. It could be a random fumble.

Starting point is 00:10:51 It could be winning a close game. It could be winning a game on a Hail Mary. It could be the opponent doing some stupid penalty. Heck, think of last year. Oklahoma State doesn't make the Big 12 title game without getting a couple breaks like the call against Kansas with the offside, so to speak. You have to get breaks to win at the highest level because there's going to be, especially in the Big 12, so many close games. And then you might need some teams to beat up on each other. What we said, it's out of your hands with Arizona and Utah since you don't play

Starting point is 00:11:17 them, but K-State beats Arizona, Arizona beats Utah, then Utah beats Iowa State, and you just get these little cycles. The teams are picking off each other, and some of the bottom-tier teams beat some of those other contenders because realistically, as much as Kansas should be a Big 12 title contender, it's not that they're expected to go 12-0 or even 11-1. And so if you're looking at a 9-3 or 10-2 record to try to get you in the Big 12 title, you're going to need some help to get ahead of those other teams around you and get the right tiebreaker.

Starting point is 00:11:47 So I think all those things are part of what has to happen for Kansas to win the Big 12, but all of them are entirely possible. All right, let's continue on here with the number 100, what it means for KU football as we're 100 days out on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. First, this episode is brought to you by LinkedIn Jobs. When you're hiring for small businesses, you want to find quality professionals that are right for the role. That's why you have to check out LinkedIn Jobs.

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Starting point is 00:13:05 We got a couple stats, and we're going to go through this as we get to our football Fridays and everything like that, that when we're X many days out, we're going to talk about that number, the significance of what it meant for last year's team, this year's team, whatever. Let's start with this. Devin Neal had six 100 or more yard rushing games last season. The only other one who had one, Daniel Hyshaw, had won a season ago.

Starting point is 00:13:26 And I think that was interesting, the discrepancy between the two, because you go back to two years ago, and when Daniel Hyshaw was healthy, it was really a kind of 50-50 split between those guys. It really felt like last year, especially over the back half of the season, Devin Neal really emerged past Hyshaw. And I do think a little of that was Hyshaw was coming off the season, Devin Neal really emerged past Hyshaw. And I do think a little of that was Hyshaw was coming off the season ending injury. And I think he wore down a little bit quicker than maybe he would have liked, but I think was totally natural because he was coming off that season long

Starting point is 00:13:54 injury that I think he'll be better for the long run this year. But still, I think Devin Neal also took another level from being this, what I talked about earlier, going from being a really good player to being a great player. I think that's what you saw from Devin Neal over the back half of the season that he was kind of taking over games and if he does that all season long this year I do expect him to be in contention for all-american conversation and if Kansas has the team success and he does that then maybe you're even talking about a possible like top 10 Heisman guy I know that uh is a bit hyperbolic but it's honestly really not if you think about it. So I guess if you were to say over under on six, 100 plus yard rushing games for Neal this year,

Starting point is 00:14:32 honestly, I'd probably take over. I think a Jeff Grimes system, they're going to want to run the football. You're going to see even more just kind of power runs. And I think Devin Neal is going to be a big recipient of that. In addition to you look at the, the touches that he's kind of had year to year. Like as great of a running back as he's been – and this has been one thing that's been unfortunate when you have been talking about some of the award races that it's good because it helps you maintain health and stuff like that and you have the backs to make it work. But like he went from 158 carries in year one to 180 in year two

Starting point is 00:15:03 to 203 in year two. So you're talking about a 22 carry increase, then a 23 carry increase. You're talking about seven catches, the 21 to 25. So, you know, some extra touches per game with the catches, but it's gone up each and every year. And so if you're looking at this year, he averaged 6.3 yards per carry. I mean, you look at some of the other best running backs in the country who had 1200, 1300, 14, 15, 1600 yards, they're having 250, 300 carries. So if you go that number up again for Devin Neal this year, let's say it goes up from 203 to 230, right? If you're talking again, 6.3 yards per carry, kind of the same clip he was

Starting point is 00:15:37 last year, which maybe it would even end up being higher because that yard per carry total has also gone up each and every season. He went from 4.5 to 6.1 to 6.3. But you're talking if he has 230 carries, which that'd be a 27 carry increase. So about two per game, you could argue it'd be even more. At 6.3 yards per carry, that's 1,450 rushing yards. You know what I mean? Like that is a big boy season from what Devin Neal would have.

Starting point is 00:16:01 And then if you do make the Big 12 championship game, there's an extra game. The bowl game, there's an extra game. Obviously, you're talking about some pretty record-breaking stuff there at that point. The other 100 stat here is Owen Peeper-Gerdes, the kicker. He was 100% on PATs in 2023. He was 6-for-6.

Starting point is 00:16:18 I bring this up because I do think this has kind of been a – it's just something people don't focus on and you know deservedly so the kicker position not going to have as much shine to it or conversation as quarterback position but it is an important position it is one that you know you could be asked to make the game-winning kick in a game um having a kicker that you can rely upon is really important for an offense to I don't know no like target zones and stuff. And like for, for a Lance Leipold coach team, they're not always the most aggressive on fourth downs. You need a good kicker if that's going to be the case. Right. So it becomes interesting. Owen Pieper-Gerdes, he's in the

Starting point is 00:16:57 kicking competition here and he was kind of the other kicker last year. If you remember last year, they kind of started strong in the kicking game. They kind of faded to the finish line, but it never really came back to haunt them in like a big way in one of their games, I guess. Like even some of the, I guess it did in the K state game in terms of just special teams in general, but not really the place kicking game.

Starting point is 00:17:20 I guess the you had the blocked PAT that got returned for two. So in that sense, it did. But it wasn't like you had a missed field goal to lose a game or something like that. And it can come back to hurt you. So you have Tabor Allen, who's more the kickoff guy. You have Charlie Weinreich, who's the transfer from Nebraska, transferred last year, originally from the Kansas City area. He was like third string kicker, fourth string, depending on him or Allen last year. He's a redshirt sophomore now. Owen Peeper-Gerdes is a redshirt junior now. And again, he kind of was rotating as the second kicker each of the last two years.

Starting point is 00:17:53 By the way, 6'6", 250. Why is Owen Peeper-Gerdes not playing linebacker, man? But defensive end, get him out on the pass rush. It's going to be interesting to see what happens, because if you are talking about Kansas being a really good team, but also knowing that the Big 12 has a lot of competitive teams, there's going to be some close games in there. Those field goals really do matter.

Starting point is 00:18:13 So that's going to be a very important position for KU down the stretch here. Let's talk an update on Bryce Foster, the transfer from Texas A&M Center that KU is after on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. First, this episode is brought to you by Yahoo Finance. Let's get straight to the point. You want to grow your portfolio to deal with the rising costs of inflation to pay off your debt or your mortgage. Pretty much anything standing in the way of you and financial freedom. With Yahoo Finance, you can get access to the news, data, and tools that you need in order to help reach that financial freedom. For more than 25 years, Yahoo Finance has been the brand behind every great investor. Whether you're a

Starting point is 00:18:55 seasoned investor or looking for that extra guidance, Yahoo Finance gives you all the tools and data you need in one place. They're the number one finance destination producing a holistic look at the financial news cycle, including breaking news, original editorial perspectives, analyst We'll be right back. It sets apart great investors. And it's how Yahoo Finance ensures you have the insight to look at your wealth in its entirety. For comprehensive financial news and analysis, visit the brand behind every great investor, YahooFinance.com. The number one financial destination, YahooFinance.com. That is YahooFinance.com. Finishing up here with an update on Bryce Foster. So Bryce Foster is the transfer center from Texas A&M,

Starting point is 00:19:46 and certainly he has a lot of opportunities around the country as being a basically three-time starter at Texas A&M, had he have been healthy for each and every one of those games and each and every one of those years. I do want to mention this. Somebody brought up to me the idea, because I had talked about this before. I thought KU was flush on scholarships. I don't know how they have Somebody brought up to me the idea, because I had talked about this before. I thought KU was flush on scholarships. I don't know how they have the scholarship room

Starting point is 00:20:07 to add Bryce Foster, which by the way, check out kind of a deep dive on him on a previous episode last week. But somebody brought up, well, couldn't he just be on scholarship for track? And then he wouldn't need the scholarship for football. They actually made an NCAA rule against that because back in the day, like Miami

Starting point is 00:20:24 and some of these other schools were abusing that to where they were basically going over the scholarship limit, giving kids track scholarships. And then maybe they just like do one practice with the track team or something, or not actually like participate. And basically they were working around that way. So I don't think you can actually do that anymore. I'm pretty sure the NCAA rule is you get a scholarship in whichever sport happens first, which is football in this case. So I don't think you can do that. But yeah, again, there's ways that you can work around it and kind of make it work.

Starting point is 00:20:54 He was supposed to visit Oregon, I believe, this past weekend. But I guess that's been pushed back because of the upcoming, it's like the West Preliminary Regionalsals which is going to be the 22nd through the 25th so coming up middle of the week through the weekend here and he didn't want to be in like a distraction during track season which obviously further shows the importance of that track part of this in all this that we kind of discussed earlier but what that means is that you're talking about the Oregon visit which was supposed to be before the Kansas visit happening after that if he makes it to the NCAA outdoor championships that would be June 5th to June 8th. And if you're talking about not

Starting point is 00:21:30 being distracted, I don't know, that's enough time between the two, but maybe you want to be distracted again. So maybe you're talking about possible visit after that, if he does make it that far, otherwise end of June. And then you're looking at Kansas visit after that, if he goes uncommitted through the visit to Oregon. So basically the point being buckle in on this one, because you're probably looking at a decision on this one in June, which who knows, maybe even by middle of June or end of June, which by the way, okay, you've got Lorenzo McCaskill. That was the last week of June when they did bring him in.

Starting point is 00:22:01 And obviously Bryce Foster, I do think to the same degree of Lorenzo McCaskill is somebody who is more of a college-ready body and obviously has done it, except he's done it at an even bigger level with the SEC. Big question. Obviously, center position is figuring out playbook and everything that early on, but I do think he would be fine for Kansas more than some other players. So we'll keep you updated on that one as it kind of goes along.

Starting point is 00:22:27 All right, that'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page, where you can like and subscribe to the show. We'll see you next time with LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - 100 Days Away From Kansas Jayhawks Football: What Needs to Happen for KU to Win the Big 12 in 2024

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