Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - 4-SEED LIKELY? 3-SEED POTENTIAL? Bracketology Breakdown of Kansas Jayhawks Big 12 Tournament Path Ahead of Selection Sunday

Starting point is 00:00:00 Does still have a shot at a three seed? Could they win the Big 12th tournament and move up even higher than that? Are they going to be a four seat? Could they be as low as a five seed? We're going to answer some of those questions with Graham Doran talking some more KU basketball bracketology on today's episode of the show. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:31 What's going on? Derek Johnson here with Lockdown Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen. every day. Thank you. Every dayers. Catch in each and every episode of the show. And we're joined once again by the wonderful Graham Doran, which you can give him a follow at Graham Doran on X. And he is the co-host of the unnamed Bracketology podcast. So check that out to get you ready for the bracket coming up this weekend and always enjoy having Graham on the show. I think this will be our third time with him this year. So we're going to break down, you know, KU's seeding and all those sorts of things.

Starting point is 00:01:03 We'll talk a little Big 12 tournament and Big 12 in general as well. Well, first today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. FanDuel's given away a turn that energy into bigger potential with a college basketball parley profit boost. Head over to fandual.com and you can get started today. All right, Graham, thank you again so much for joining us here. Since we last talked, like the last time we talked, it was an exciting time. Kansas had some big wins. They were going into play Arizona on the road.

Starting point is 00:01:33 and it was like if Kansas wins this game, they got an outside shot on a one seed. And instead they got blown out and then they lost to Arizona State. Obviously, they bounce back beating K State, but that's not going to do much from a resume perspective. You do still have them as a three seed right now. And I know you kind of talked about this last night on social media, the idea that, you know, it seems like there's a couple spots locked in for those three seeds,

Starting point is 00:01:57 but it seems like it is kind of wide open for the rest. So if you could just kind of take us through the diagnosis, currently for KU with their resume compared to some of these other teams they're battling with? Yeah, I think what's interesting for Kansas in a positive way is they have six wins against Quad 1A. That's that top half of your Quad 1 wins. And so that's really impressive. Only five teams in the country have that. That's Duke, who's really good, Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, and Kansas. Obviously, those other four are all going to be one or two seeds. It's Kansas that's struggling in comparison. Why? Because they keep losing games that beg into question, why are you

Starting point is 00:02:38 losing to Arizona State? Why are you losing at home to Cincinnati by so many points? And it's a fair criticism. And I think it's one that the committee will take to heart and we'll really have to consider what I think stands out for Kansas to get in that positive way. They've beaten Arizona. They've beat Iowa State. They've beat Houston. Obviously, they beat BYU at home, but they also won on the road at Texas Tech. They beat Tennessee on a neutral court, even beating NC State, who's now on the bubble, that was still a true road win. Very nice, very impressive wins to have on the resume. That's what stands out for Kansas compared to all the other teams they're competing with. But again, these other teams like Virginia, they've only lost four times all year. That's, you compare

Starting point is 00:03:19 Kansas losing literally nine games to them. It's just, we're playing different ballparks there. So Virginia doesn't have the wins Kansas has. Kansas has way more losses. I think Kansas, if they want to move into that three-seed range and stay there, again, I have my last three-seed right now, but if they want to stay a three-seed, not only do they need to beat TCU, they probably need some help along the way. No more important than Gizaga losing either tonight or tomorrow night when they play in the West Coast Conference Championship, because I think Gizaga is in really good shape for a three-seed. If they do end up winning the West Coast Conference tournament, they would be seven and two against

Starting point is 00:03:57 quadrant one. They already own a win over Alabama on a neutral court. I think it would be hard for Kansas to compete with that. Also, Purdue, really good metrics still. They went 11 and 3 on the road this year away from home. That includes wins at Nebraska, at Alabama, and they beat Texas Tech on a neutral floor by 30 points. I think when you look at Purdue's profile, still a little bit better than the Jayhawks overall. So if Kansas is going to stay a three seed, they probably need either Gonzaga or Purdue to lose.

Starting point is 00:04:27 and maybe even need to get some help from Alabama and Texas Tech and Virginia too. Okay, well, let's run through some scenarios here then in the conference tournament. You just mentioned, you know, beating TCU pretty much means KU is going to need some help. So at that point you're looking at either a three or four seed is kind of the natural inclination there based on what happens elsewhere. What if, I don't know, and let's start positive first. What if KU beats TCU and then beats Houston in the semifinals and then, you know, let's say they lose in the Big 12 championship game to, I think, reasonably assume some sort of quad one team in Texas Tech, Arizona, or Iowa State at that point. Where would that put KU?

Starting point is 00:05:10 If Kansas does that, I think it's going to be a really close call between a three or four seed. And I know a lot of people are probably thinking, why not a two seed? They beat Houston again. This is really late in the conference tournament week. At this point, the committee will have already done their initial seating of the teams. So they're going to have to have something really impressive to change anything at that point. I think it's more likely that Kansas moves up to a three seed with a win over Houston rather than move up to a two. I think even if Kansas were to win the Big 12 tournament, I don't think they're going to get a two seed.

Starting point is 00:05:43 Not to say it's impossible, but the committee would really have to divert from what they've been doing the past few years, which is usually getting results up through about Thursday night considered. and then they don't really consider much after that. They say they consider it. And I believe them when they say they do, it's just more so they've already seated those teams. So it has to be something that totally changes their opinion of the team. And after 30-some-odd games,

Starting point is 00:06:07 they feel pretty comfortable with where they have a team. But winning the Big 12 tournament guarantees them probably a three at least, though? I don't know, even if I'd be honest with you. I think it would be likely that winning the Big 12 tournament would get Kansas to a three-seed. I wouldn't say it's a guarantee. That is, that is tough to hear coming into this week potentially. Now, does the, the order of teams, I guess, the seeding matter here because obviously when Kansas moved up to the three seed in the big 12 tournament, when BYU beat Texas Tech, the path

Starting point is 00:06:39 to potentially winning the Big 12 championship became a little bit easier for KU, but the amount of, I guess, top tier games that you could play along the way went down. like where is the line between that mattering or not like is there some sick way where KU having to play Iowa State and then Arizona and then potentially like Houston on a run to the Big Talk Championship would that have been actually more beneficial for KU than what they're going to have to do now? Yeah, I mean from a you want to keep your team healthy and ready to head into the NCAA tournament. You want to have that by.

Starting point is 00:07:14 You want to have an easier path. On the other hand, if Kansas wanted to be a three seed, they probably want to be where Iowa State is, which is picking up an extra win and then getting an opportunity against a wounded Texas Tech on a neutral court, that probably would have been enough to lock up a three seed had they drawn Iowa State's position in the Big 12 tournament, but instead not having the big win, potentially in the quarterfinal and missing out on a win in the second round, that could make a difference for Kansas. So in a sick way, Kansas getting the three seed actually hurt their draw. Texas Tech has a chance to improve their profile a little bit more because they're probably going to play Iowa State.

Starting point is 00:07:52 Okay, that's very interesting as well. And when you look at the potential quarterfinal matchups for KU, obviously the expectation is it'll be TCU, but could Colorado or Oklahoma State upset TCU? Absolutely. We've seen TCU beat some of the best teams and lose to some of the worst teams. How would that impact what we're talking about here? Does it need to be TCU for this game or is it more about kind of the potential semi? final matchup for KU, then the quarterfinal.

Starting point is 00:08:18 Yeah, I think for Kansas, what would be beneficial is playing as hard of a team as possible. You want TCU so that you can get that extra win that really builds up the resume because I don't think they're going to drop to a five seat. I think Kansas has done so much with their top-end wins that I'd be very surprised if they drop to a five. You look at the teams at the top of that five line, it's going to be Arkansas, Vanderbilt. I just think Kansas is so many big wins in comparison to those teams. I think Kansas is safe as a four seed.

Starting point is 00:08:48 So ideally, you want to play TCU and build up your resume if you're looking for NCAA tournament positioning. If you're trying to win in Kansas City and win a Big 12 tournament title, you probably want to avoid the orange frogs. Yeah. And does that carry any way? Like, let's say you do get an easier path to winning the Big 12th title. Let's say, you know, Oklahoma State finds their way to upset through.

Starting point is 00:09:09 And then Houston gets upended by like BYU, right? And then KU is able to, obviously, at that point, you're probably. playing a really good team. And let's say you win that game. Does that carry any extra weight to winning the Big 12th tournament where you could at least say, hey, even though it was an easier path, like they do have that, that nice little extra shiny trophy to show the committee? I think winning the quality games matters a lot more.

Starting point is 00:09:33 And it's a process thing. The committee will start voting on the top four seed lines on Wednesday night. And so they're probably going to have Kansas seated into a certain spot before they ever step on the court in the Big 12 tournament. So in order to improve your seed, you're going to have to get wins that make the committee want to move you. And that's a process called scrubbing. So ideally, Kansas, if they were to win the Big 12 tournament, it would be as hard of a possible path as they could get because then the committee will want to move them a little bit more. Whereas if they were to get that really easy path, the committee would probably be like, yeah, they haven't done anything

Starting point is 00:10:08 we wouldn't expect them to do. We'll just keep them exactly where they were at. I want to talk more about KU. I want to talk a little bit about the location stuff. Maybe some other teams to kind of keep an eye on and we'll get into some Big 12 as well. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by Robin Hood. And what if sports are traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robin Hood prediction markets. It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions live all game long. Use your sports knowledge in the moments that matter. Robin Hood prediction markets change the game.

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Starting point is 00:12:15 you can get into our everyday, club bracket pool on Discord for a chance to have been some free Lockdown merch should be a lot of fun. So right now use the code March, M-A-R-C-H to your first month free. And all you got to do is head over to Lockdown Podcast.com slash every day. I joined by Graham Doran here on Lockdown Jayhawks breaking down some of these different scenarios, Bracketology for KU. You just answered this for me. And I had a listener reach out about KU potentially being okay.

Starting point is 00:12:46 Oklahoma City or St. Louis, and I kind of directed them to you, and your answer was neither. He said, no, not looking great right now for either spot. So you had them in Philadelphia at the time being, but obviously, as you mentioned, you know, there's some other teams competing for that three line. Does that have any impact on it with Gonzaga and Purdue in the same way it can impact? The three line doesn't have any impact on the location for KU or is it looking like a Philadelphia or a Greenville or one of these other location? Yeah, I think ideally for Kansas, they're going to want.

Starting point is 00:13:16 want two teams to lose. They want Iowa State to lose because they would be getting a St. Louis spot and they would also want Nebraska to lose. I think Kansas is close enough to those teams that they could potentially replace them in championship week. With Iowa State in particular, I don't even think it would be losing to Texas Tech that you would want to see, you want to see them lose the game before that. If they lose early enough in championship week, then the committee probably will not have even seated Iowa State by the time they go ahead and I would say would probably be out of the Big 12 tournament before they're ever seated. I think that could be advantageous for Kansas because if that's the case, Iowa State might be looking at a six and seven record against

Starting point is 00:13:57 quad one. And then you look at Kansas. If they're over there at eight and eight improved a nine and eight if they beat TCU, I think you look at those two teams. They split during the regular season. Kansas got the three seed. Iowa State got the five seed. Kansas beat. all the top six teams and the Big 12, Iowa State didn't. I think Kansas could then pass Iowa State and steal their spot in St. Louis. I also think if we're in Nebraska were to lose early in the Big Ten tournament, they could potentially take their spot in Oklahoma City. But here's the caveat to that.

Starting point is 00:14:28 The Big Ten starts to play a week, a day later than the Big 12 tournament does. So it's very likely the committee will have already placed Nebraska into the bracket before they ever step off foot onto the court. So I think Nebraska and Oklahoma City actually might be a little bit more secure than Iowa State and St. Louis. So cheer against the clones to go out to maybe Baylor in their first game. Okay. So that becomes a change. Now, is there a scenario out there? The problem with this scenario, obviously, is going to be the extra quad one and big victories they would pick up.

Starting point is 00:14:59 But is there a scenario where KU plays Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game? and by KU beating them and therefore grabbing a 2-1 lead and winning the season series, could that accomplish what you're mentioning as well? Yeah, I think it could, but the caveat to that is... Yeah, they might be Arizona along the way, right? They would be beating Arizona likely. They would have to beat Texas Tech. And then they would also have to pick up a pretty good win before that.

Starting point is 00:15:28 They're picking up one additional win on the way to the championship game. And Iowa states, I think by everyone's destination, already ahead. of Kansas in the seed line. So I'm not sure that would even be enough for the Big 12 tournament championship to ultimately put Kansas ahead of Iowa State. I think if the Jayhawks are going to go in front of Iowa State, Iowa State needs to lose early in the Big 12 tournament. The Jayhawks need to make it to Friday. And you mentioned Purdue and Gonzaga. Are there any other teams that are maybe sitting on that four or five line right now that if they won their conference tournament would maybe threaten KU's seed? I think you look at Virginia. They,

Starting point is 00:16:05 have not picked up a really big win all year. They have no wins against top five seeds, but they've also only played two games against teams that are top five seeds. They were embarrassed in Durham by Duke, but let's be honest, Duke beats a lot of teams really badly. But they did lose at home to UNC. And I think that is problematic for Virginia. But if they were then to win the ACC tournament, or even if they are just against the ACC championship game, I think Virginia being only a four-loss team could potentially move up in Texas. Texas Tech. If they were to beat Iowa State, I think the Red Raiders, when you add their wins over Duke, in Arizona, in Houston, and Iowa State on the road, they might be able to pass Kansas yet again,

Starting point is 00:16:48 just based on having another big time win. I've kind of said throughout this season that I think the, I don't know, the value of getting a three seed over being a four seed seems loftier this year than some other years. you know obviously in general one seeds are going to tend to be better than two seeds and i say this coming off a year in which all four one seeds made the final four so it's not like we haven't seen this recently but it does kind of feel like one of those years where the one seeds are like the good this year um so i guess just just from your perspective does that feel this way does it feel where i don't know the one seeds are a little more dominant this year than

Starting point is 00:17:28 in most years of college basketball again coming off a year where this just kind of happened to where there is more value in getting the three line than it is the four. Yeah, I think everyone talked about how strong the one seeds last year were. And going into the tournament, a lot of people said, I think it's going to be all one seeds in the final four first time since the only time in 2008, when Kansas cut down the nets. But I think looking back at last year, that was not as strong as the top of the field as this year. You look at this Duke team, I think it was better than the Auburn team that got the overall one seed last year.

Starting point is 00:18:01 You look at Duke, Michigan, number two overall. I think that's stronger than the Duke team that got number two overall last year. And certainly, when you go down to number three, I think this Arizona team is even stronger than the Houston team that we saw overall three last year. And then you get to the overall four seed. Who is it? Once again, second straight year, Florida Gators, Todd Golden, looking like a national championship caliber team. I think the one seeds this year are as strong as we've ever seen them. and that includes 2008 and last year.

Starting point is 00:18:32 Okay, well, let's finish up with a little Big 12 talk. And, you know, what are some things that we need to see for the Big 12 to maximize their number of teams? We'll get to all that next. This is Locked on Jayhawks. This episode of the show is brought to you by Fanduals Sportsbook. College basketball is nonstop, the big games, the tight spreads, the momentum swings every single night from early tip-offs to late night West Coast shootouts. There's always action on the board. And now Fandul is given away to turn that.

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Starting point is 00:21:19 You can join the March Madden's bracket, win some free swag and free prizes. I joined by Graham Doran on this episode. of the show. Is there a team in the Big 12th tournament that, you know, I don't know, needs to win two or three games that would set them up to make the field and strengthen their resume? Or are we talking about right now the bubble teams are in situations? Like, I guess Cincinnati, does a couple wins get them in or do they need to win the whole

Starting point is 00:21:47 thing? Teams that come in, five different Big 12 teams come to mind when I think about that. Cincinnati is certainly one of them. but Arizona State, they've made a late run. I mean, obviously they got that win over Kansas, but they were competitive with Iowa State 2 and Ames. I also look at Baylor as seemingly a team that should be completely out of the running based on their Big 12 performance,

Starting point is 00:22:13 but we already talked about it. They've actually got a pretty good path. If they were to be Arizona State and Iowa State and Texas Tech and Arizona, I would put Baylor in the tournament at that point. So I think we've got a lot of different opportunities. I wouldn't rule out Oklahoma State. I wouldn't rule out West Virginia. I think the more interesting one is UCF.

Starting point is 00:22:32 They should be totally set to dance except if they lose to Utah. So if Utah happens to get that game against UCF and they were to lose to Utah, then I think their tournament bit is definitely in danger. But the Big 12 tournament will be really fascinating, not because the Big 12 has bubble teams. I actually don't think they have any bubble teams. They just have a team in UCF that could totally fall flat on their face and miss the tournament for that reason,

Starting point is 00:22:59 or five other teams that could totally make gigantic runs to Saturday in the Big 12 tournament. And if they do that, I think they could be in the dance. Like, how does the committee even go about approaching BYU? Because since the Richie Saunders injury, it has been a little rough for the Cougars. They do have a couple of big home wins against Texas, Tech and Iowa State in that span. But they got the 10 seed in the Big 12 tournament. So, like, how important is this tournament for them?

Starting point is 00:23:25 I think it's an important tournament for BYU. I don't think BYU is going to get up to a five seed, even if they perform well in Kansas City. They just haven't been strong enough without Richie Saunders. I will say they beat both Iowa State and Texas Tech in Provo. So I don't expect their seed to drop too much because they have two really good wins without him. But if you just look at the overall body of work, they've been a lot better with Richie Saunders than without him. So I think as long as BYU doesn't fall on their face, they're probably going to be a

Starting point is 00:23:55 six seed, maybe a seven seed. But if they were to really fall on their face, I think a seven seed is more likely than a six. But I'm guessing BYU is going to be a six seat on selection Sunday. TCU is the six seed in the big 12 tournament. If they were to get through Kansas and I don't know, maybe even make it to the big 12 championship like beat Houston, the top end of their resume is very, very fun to look at. You don't want to look at the bottom of it. How would they go about seeding the horn frogs?

Starting point is 00:24:24 I think there's too much ground to make up if your TCU in that scenario. I think TCU is likely looking at a seven seed if they go on a big 12 tournament run. I don't think I'd want to be the two seed that plays TCU in the second. They might just lose in the first round, but like, I don't know, that feels like that's setting up for potential upset there. Okay, we know Arizona at this point lock for a one seed. Is there enough of an opening there? I mean, has Florida done enough to be locked in there? or like if Houston or Iowa State does win the big 12th title here,

Starting point is 00:24:56 do they have a change getting a one still? I think Iowa State probably hasn't done enough to get up to that one seed line. Houston, though, I do think has a shot. If Houston were to win the Big 12 tournament, I think the Cougars could get up to that one seed line over Florida. But I think Florida would have to lose. If Florida wins the SEC tournament, I think they will be that final one seat.

Starting point is 00:25:18 And then just in general for once we get to selection Sunday, here with all these big 12 teams that are going to be in and especially with how many of them are going to be higher seeds here. I guess I don't know, bad or whatever you want to define that. What is what is the seating process for them trying to avoid them matching up? Like I know they try to avoid it happening until I think what is it like the elite aid. I guess just it. But we've seen before where like I don't know, I think there was a year where Kansas was a one seat in Iowa State was like the five seat or something, but they ended up losing to Purdue.

Starting point is 00:25:51 so it didn't end up happening. So how does kind of the Big 12 geography play into this with what they're going to do on Sunday? Yeah. So the thing you need to know is that you cannot play a team from your own conference in the second round if you've played at least twice. You can play them in the second round if you've only played once during the season. You can't play them in the suite 16 if you've played three times. But if you've only played twice, you can play in the sweet 16, which is, how Kansas and Iowa State ended up matched up in the Midwest region as the one in the five.

Starting point is 00:26:26 And if you played the team three times, you can only meet in the elite eight. But there's no prohibition on anything beyond that, right? Anybody can meet in the elite eight or beyond. It's just the sweet 16 and the second round that have restrictions. Okay, okay, good to know. I don't know if that will come up at all for KU, but I guess, I guess theoretically, it could with Texas Tech then, just by definition and rule, if like you had a four and five seed there. So we'll see if that ends up happening at all. But that is something where they try to avoid it

Starting point is 00:26:56 regardless, right? Not really. They have a lot going on. There's a lot of policies and procedures in place that try to separate the first four teams from a conference. So that I think will be a much bigger deal for KU is that they will probably be the team in the Big 12 if they're behind Arizona and they're behind Houston and they're behind Iowa State, Kansas will likely be that fourth team from the Big 12 then to go into the bracket and they will have to be in different regions than those three. Okay. So I guess tech is a possibility and I do not love that at all. All right, Graham, thank you so much, man. Have a great week. Like seriously, guys, go follow Graham Doran at Graham Doran on Twitter X. He's the co-host of the unnamed Bracketology podcast. You're not going to find anybody better doing it for

Starting point is 00:27:44 get you ready for this Sunday. So thank you. Anything else that you want to mention or anywhere else to find your work as we get ready for the big release? Nope, just on X and the YouTube for the undamed Bracketology podcast. Appreciate it, Derek.

Starting point is 00:27:57 Awesome. That's Graham Doran. Thank you guys for joining us today. We'll have our KU previews later this week and some more KU basketball content coming at you. We'll see you next time for another edition of Locked on Jayhawks.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - 4-SEED LIKELY? 3-SEED POTENTIAL? Bracketology Breakdown of Kansas Jayhawks Big 12 Tournament Path Ahead of Selection Sunday

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