Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - A 5-Seed? A 7-Seed??? Kansas Jayhawks' Best & Worst Case Scenarios After Losing to Utah

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked On Jayhawks, we're joined by Graham Doran to talk a little bracketology. What seed is Kansas that came in as a four, but they already lost to Utah? Is this going to be the worst seed of the Bill Self era? You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here along with Graham Doran. And we're going to be having fun on today's episode.

Starting point is 00:00:33 Graham does some great bracketology work. We'll get into that in a second here. But what seed is Kansas? Where do they go from here? All these things. The impact of the KU-Utah game. We'll get into that on today's episode. Which, thank you for making it your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:00:45 Thank you that every day is catching each and every episode. We're free and available anywhere you get your podcasts, and you can find us on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And today's edition is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers with FanDuel get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. So first things first, I want to introduce Graham.

Starting point is 00:01:04 If you used to listen to me on a rock chalk sports talk we used to try to get graham on a good amount leading into march madness and everything graham does some great bracketology work and i guess i'll leave the floor right there graham where can you find some of your work right now i know uh you've been doing stuff with the unnamed bracketology podcast which is a cool time and uh where can you find the rest of what you have going on right now yeah right now the rest of it's going to be on x uh you can just search for graham doran bracketology doran is d-o-e r-e-n uh eventually i'm going to be moving over to overallone.com for my bracketology there but you need to get the website looking good before i uh start to unveil that okay love it so uh

Starting point is 00:01:41 kansas was a four seed in that initial whatever you want to call it mock selection ncaa tournament early preview i forget the exact name they call it they barely made the cut right they were i think 15th technically of the 16 teams made it in as one of the four seeds um you had kind of been floating around around a three or four seed for them coming into that um so i guess did they come in of all, like a little bit lower than expected? And if so, what does that kind of tell you about how they're viewing this team? So I will say I had Kansas on the three line as 12th overall, but I was not surprised to see them 15th overall. And I think one thing that we have to think about is not just the numbers of where teams are, but how close teams may potentially be. For example, Auburn has a huge gap from overall number one to overall number two

Starting point is 00:02:32 now. But whereas in this situation, I think you saw overall 11 to overall 15 where Kansas was and Wisconsin was back at that overall 11. Those were very, very close. They could have gone anyway, and that's just the direction the committee went. So I didn't really see any surprises at the selection committee's top 16. I think Kansas being 15 was not a surprise to me at all. I do think given where the Jayhawks were and given the result against Utah, there's a steep hill to climb if the Jayhawks won a good seed. So, I mean, going back to the Utah game, is that enough?

Starting point is 00:03:06 One game to all of a sudden jump them off that list and move them into a five seed at this point in time? I think certainly the Jayhawks would be a five or even a six seed at this point. I think a five seed. But I do think the argument for a top four seed is no longer there. In fact, if you look at the top 75 of the net, if you go on the road and play a team that's ranked in the top 75 of the net,

Starting point is 00:03:29 that's considered a quad one road game. The Jayhawks played at Utah, at Kansas State, lost both of those games. So those are both quad one losses. They went on the road and beat UCF and TCU. Those are both quad two wins because those teams are 76th and 77th in the net whereas Kansas State and Utah are coming in at 72nd and 73rd so right now the Jayhawks are four and seven

Starting point is 00:03:54 against quad one even though they very easily could be six and five and when you look at some of the recent games I've seen this stat kind of floating around lately that they have a couple wins against teams that maybe you'd classify as like bubble teams will they make it will they not like what's going to happen to the rest of the season for UCF and Arizona State and Cincinnati and stuff like that but I guess Kansas State now at this point too but the only like surefire NCAA tournament team at this point that Kansas has beaten since uh really the Duke win which is at the end of November, is Iowa State, that home game that they played back on February 3rd.

Starting point is 00:04:28 Is this one of the lightest, like beyond just the level of play? Obviously, this is the most losses we've seen Kansas have to this point in the season in a while, and they're not playing good basketball, very inconsistent. But just from a resume standpoint, it feels like to me this is probably one of the lighter resumes they've had because there have been other years where they've lost i don't know at 9 10 games and they still have like all these quad one wins or something yeah i think there's two different factors there one is the big 12 is weaker than we were anticipating coming into the season we thought the big 12 was going to be what the sec became so the big 12 not being its typical top-ranked conference has impacted the

Starting point is 00:05:06 Jayhawks resume because they're just not picking up the quality wins in conference that they're used to picking up. The other thing that Kansas has done is just really struggled on the road. So just having such a poor road record is really impacting the resume. I was thinking about this earlier today. I've been doing this for a couple decades. I'm not sure I've ever actually had Kansas as a projected five seed before until today. This may be the first time I've ever had them as a projected five seed. They're always in the one, two, three, four range. And unfortunately, the resume is not there to justify anything higher than a five seed. Well, it's crazy because like i think back to some past years where maybe they did get a two seed like resume wise it made sense or they got you

Starting point is 00:05:50 know whatever seed you want to talk about well like i think back to that 2015 team for instance that's the one that keeps coming in the mind in my head where they got a two seed they obviously lost to wichita state that year in the second round and if you're just judging that team on like do you really think they're one of the eight best teams in the country i i don't think a lot of people you know obviously it's easy to say this looking back but i don't think even a lot of ku fans would have been like yes but from the resume standpoint you understood why they got a two seed in one of those seasons it feels like there are a lot of years where because of bill self being so good against these ranked teams and in close games and

Starting point is 00:06:19 because of the home field advantage with alan fieldhouse and uh because of the the scheduling and the non-con, that they're going to overseed to where they actually are. Like they could be the sixth best team in the country and they get a one seed, or they could be the 12th best team in the country and they get a two seed based on some of those things they're able to do. And that's almost a worry for me here that it's like, okay, they could be a five seed, but realistically, like how good are they? Like, is this a team that's actually a seven or eight seed? And then you start talking about, oh oh if you're on that five line you're probably playing a pretty

Starting point is 00:06:49 dangerous team who's a a possible 12 seed i mean uh that's obviously you know something where it's a very popular upset pick i guess i'll get into that right now like are there any teams and maybe it should just be everybody because this team has just been so inconsistent i mean you're losing at utah and some of these teams but like are there any teams that you're paying attention to on the bracket line that could come in at that 11, 12, 13 line that you're like, that would probably be bad news for Kansas in the first round? Yeah, I mean, last year we kind of went through some of these teams and Sanford was one of the teams that we had talked about before the tournament came to be. And I'm looking this year and thinking, the way Kansas is playing, I don't know that it matters who they draw if they get a 5-12 game or a 4-13 game. And that would probably be the best case scenario, realistically, as a 4-13 game. They just have to be better or they're not going to be advancing in the NCAA tournament.

Starting point is 00:07:45 There's a lot of different speculation. About energy just isn't good enough on a consistent basis. And if you're not bringing energy against these 12 and 13 seeds, let's remember, these are teams that storm through their conferences. They may not be as talented, but they are going to bring that energy level repeatedly because they have to be, because they're the big dogs in their conference they don't bring that energy they're not going to

Starting point is 00:08:09 advance to the ncaa tournament so kansas really has to get their energy up or i don't know that it matters who they end up drawing in the first round and well and you bring something up there you said realistically like probably four seed might be the ceiling here i guess what is the if we are to go down the path of the ultimate optimism here right let's let's say they i don't know let's not even say they went out right let's say what would be a realistic finish maybe you lose like one of the the three final games that you have between those good opponents at the very least two of them are at home with texas tech uh houston and arizona so let's say they go two and one there let's say

Starting point is 00:08:44 they can find a way to win the rest of these games, including on Tuesday night against BYU. And let's say they make it to the Big 12 semifinals. So that would be a 2-1. You'd have two losses, I guess, the rest of the way in that scenario. Is there any chance that can get them up to a three seed? I think given the scenario you described, if they were to win in Provo, that would be a quad 1A victory.

Starting point is 00:09:04 So a very, very valuable win for the selection committee. scenario you described if they were to win in provo that would be a quad 1a victory so very very valuable win for the selection committee and if they were also to let's say the arizona and texas tech and lawrence but lose that game at houston assuming they win in boulder i think kansas could get up to a two seed in that scenario i think they could get as high as a two seed the problem is that's a really really tough task to to ask this Kansas team to go into Provo and win and hold serve in Boulder and beat Arizona and beat Texas Tech and not get eliminated early from the Big 12 tournament. So, you know, if all of those things happen, I think a two seed is possible. But realistically, I think a four seed is what the Jayhawks should be hoping for. And a three seed would really be doing very well down the stretch.

Starting point is 00:09:46 Okay, so flip side to this. If we're playing the pessimistic approach, let's say they do lose to BYU on Tuesday night, right? And then they go one and two in that stretch against Houston, Arizona in that tough final three games, and then they do lose in, say, the Big 12 quarterfinals. At that point, are you looking at like a six or seven seed? I think you are looking at a six or seven seed? I think you are looking

Starting point is 00:10:05 at a six or seven seed given that scenario. So I think it's really important that if Kansas doesn't beat BYU, they hold serve against both Arizona and Texas Tech. Otherwise, it'll be pretty clear if they lose at home to West Virginia and Houston and Texas Tech and Arizona. That's just not a good formula because we all know the Jayhawks have struggled on the road anyway. So now you're just talking about a bad road record and missing out on those opportunities at home and now in Fieldhouse. So basically looking to go 2-1 between those three games and lose only one more road game the rest of the year.

Starting point is 00:10:37 So how difficult can that really be? I want to talk more about this. I want to talk about the implications of geography, right? Wichita being a first and second-round host. The Midwest, which they were put in as a four-seed. I want to get into that implications of geography, right? Wichita being a first and second round host, the Midwest, which they're put in as a four seed. I want to get into that and some other stuff here. We're going to continue on with Graham Doran in a moment. This is Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:10:55 Today's episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. When the game tips off, the NBA action is just getting started and there's no better place to get in than with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. With FanDuel, you can place live bets throughout the game. So even if you miss the opening tip or want to bet on a fourth quarter comeback, you can stay in on the action. If you're looking for a bigger payout, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay. You can bet on who's going to make the final four. If you are bullish on Kansas, you can get about as good odds as you've had in the entire Bill Self tenure at KU. You can go down the list, though.

Starting point is 00:11:26 Maybe you like what Drake has been doing with Ben McCollum in year one, and you can find that a little further down the list to make the Final Four. I think it was 21 odds I was looking at this morning. Right now, new FanDuel customers can get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Just visit FanDuel.com to join today. That's FanDuel.com for your shot at $150 in bonus bets. Make every moment more with Fanduel, the official sports betting partner

Starting point is 00:11:48 of the NBA and the Locked On Podcast Network. All right, continuing on here, Graham Doran joining us, talking a little KU Bracketology. So going into the idea, Kansas got into the Midwest in that mock selection, and I guess there's no guarantee they would have stayed there. But now moving to the five line, I selection. I guess there's no guarantee they would have stayed there.

Starting point is 00:12:07 But now moving to the five line, I'd imagine that's a little bit less of a priority to put them in the Midwest if they were a five or six. Yeah, certainly the Jayhawks would be unlikely to be in the Midwest in that scenario, but it's certainly possible. The more important thing is Kansas is going to be looking at these first round sites. And Wichita is unlikely to be a spot that Kansas lands.

Starting point is 00:12:29 And it's for a couple of different reasons. One, Kansas isn't likely to be high enough in the seed list to be the team that gets given that preferential treatment to be in Wichita. But the other problem is Houston probably will be and will take one of those slots. And Kansas isn't going to be with Houston, whether it's because they're Big 12 teams who've already played twice during the regular season or because it's that Houston is maybe a one or a two seed and the Jayhawks are looking at maybe a five or a six. So that's unlikely to happen is Texas A&M, who is also likely to head to Wichita, landing on the three line. The way the Aggies have played, they're looking like a two seed right now. So if that's the case, Kansas would have to drop all the way to a seven seed to likely end up in Wichita simply because the teams that are likely to take Wichita as their preferential spots aren't going to end up matched with the Jayhawks. It's possible, but unlikely. Okay, I find that very interesting then.

Starting point is 00:13:36 Because if Houston is the team that's in front of you that's kind of blocking, I know you laid out another scenario that it could happen another way. But that would be difficult because then even if you are in the best case scenario where we talked about yeah if they if they win all these games and go on this run to the very end even in that point right even if they do get a three seed you're basically saying that there's a chance that they still don't get wichita's three seed right yeah i think if kansas is a three seed it's unlikely they'd end up in wichita because texas a&m and and Houston would probably occupy both of those slots before them. Okay, so moving forward, obviously the BYU game on Tuesday, and we talked a little bit about the importance of that one. What do you think is a more important, I don't know, game or stretch,

Starting point is 00:14:15 I guess we could say, for Kansas here, right? So they have the BYU game coming up on the road here, then you're at home against Oklahoma State, and then you're at Colorado. Would it be that three game stretch for KU, or would it be what they do in the Big 12 tournament? Because it does feel like in previous years, recently, the tournament committee hasn't valued the Big 12 or just all conference tournaments really as much anymore. Which do you think is more important for KU? I think it's the stretch with the opportunity to get a big win

Starting point is 00:14:42 in Provo against BYU, and then really hold serve to not add any losses that look questionable on the resume against Oklahoma State and Colorado. And as you mentioned, the tournament committee tends not to change too much based on what happens on conference tournament week. And I think it's even become more difficult for the committee this year compared to past years. And the reason I say that is now the ACC is 18 teams this year,

Starting point is 00:15:06 and we're looking at a 16-team SEC. We're looking at a Big Ten that's grown to 18 teams. You look at all that, it is so hard for the committee to make sure they avoid having these 10 teams play each other in the bracket earlier than they're allowed to. Building the bracket has never been harder than it's going to be this year. And because of that, I expect the committee to. Building the bracket has never been harder than it's going to be this year. And because of that, I expect the committee to start building the bracket earlier in the process than they typically do to make sure they don't run afoul of any of their own

Starting point is 00:15:35 principles and procedures in building bracket. So that brings up something that I did want to touch on. How much do you think they will care about like order of conference standings, for instance, because with all these mega conferences, obviously that leads to imbalanced schedules, so to speak. And so you can end up with a team like, for instance, I'm looking on Ken Palm right now, and Arizona has the seventh ranked strength of schedule in the Big 12, but they're tied second. Meanwhile, you have a team like Iowa State, who's one game behind them, but they're 13th in strength of schedule in the Big 12. Like're tied second meanwhile you have a team like iowa state who's one game behind them but they're 13th in strength of schedule in the big 12 like uh i don't know how that'll finish out necessarily but just in general like do you think that is going to be something they're going to be beholden to of saying oh well this team finished you know second in in this league and this team finished third so they got to be behind this other team or do you think they're

Starting point is 00:16:21 not really going to care because of how large the conferences are and how imbalanced the schedules are? I think it can matter a little bit when we're talking about a conference champion. So for example, last year, I think Marquette was in good shape the prior year, excuse me, back in 2023. I think that helped them in comparison to Connecticut. I think you could still argue Connecticut had a better resume than Marquette, but Marquette won the conference title. So I think that was the difference between Marquette getting up to that two line and UConn dropping down to the four line. Of course, UConn won the national title anyways. But I think that's an example of where a conference championship can help your seating. But otherwise, if we're talking about who's fourth place versus sixth place,

Starting point is 00:17:05 the committee doesn't really care about that. They're just judging your resume in comparison to other teams around the country. Okay, so those last three games for KU, Texas Tech at home at Houston versus Arizona. Would winning at Houston be more valuable than winning both of the other games at home? Excellent question, and I think it would be, I think that's the sort of victory that really you saw it with Texas tech when they got a good seating this year, uh, at the sweet or the top 16 reveal that we just had this past weekend, uh, they ended up 13th overall. And I think that was in part due to that crucial win at houston

Starting point is 00:17:46 so yeah i agree i think winning at houston would be more important than beating arizona and texas tech but of course those are both quality wins geox get them all right i want to finish up here a little big 12 talk i'm curious with with some of the stuff on the bubble what has to happen for the big 12 to maximize their different bids and stuff like that. We'll be right back in a moment with Locked on Jayhawks. Finishing things up on today's episode of LOJ, we're joined by Graham Doran here talking some racquetology,

Starting point is 00:18:17 getting some great info on KU. And now I want to touch on the Big 12 a little bit here. So obviously there are, I would say, a good amount of bubble teams in the conference this year on the Big 12 a little bit here. So obviously there are, I would say, a good amount of bubble teams in the conference this year in the Big 12. I mean, obviously the run that Kansas State has been on has gotten them onto the bubble. It feels like West Virginia has kind of fallen off into the bubble based on where they started conference play,

Starting point is 00:18:38 and obviously that win at Kansas looked a lot better at the time than it did now. I don't know. Is it BYU? Are they on the bubble? Like Cincinnati? I guess UCF? How many teams are on the bubble, I guess? There's the point blank question because I feel like it is very bubblicious conference this year. Yeah, I would say that we're really kind of looking at six or seven teams that are on the

Starting point is 00:19:00 bubble, but it's all varying degrees. I think West Virginia is on the good side of the bubble but it's all varying degrees I think West Virginia is on the good side of the bubble they're still four and four against quad 1a which is that top half of quad one so West Virginia I think is still in good shape for the tournament as long as they really just don't completely falter down the stretch and then I think you get into that next tier which is your Kansas State's your BYU's those teams that are kind of more so true bubble teams. I think BYU is in right now. Kansas State is out right now. And then I think you have that following tier, the UCF's, the TCU's. They're not out of the thing. They're still on the bubble, but it's not looking good and unlikely to happen.

Starting point is 00:19:39 Does this have any impact on Kansas' resume? Is that something the tournament committee looks at in terms of, obviously they have the quad system, which cuts it off at different distinctions but do they look at a record against what our tournament field would be and and uh should there be like certain schools in the big 12 if that is the case that Kansas is rooting for so that they can say hey we have a another extra NCAA tournament win yeah I think wins against the tournament field does matter the teams that I think Kansas should especially be cheering for are UCF and TCU, because not only could those be quad one victories, they could also be wins against the tournament field. And in the case of UCF, they beat them twice. So that could really be particularly important. Unfortunately,

Starting point is 00:20:20 the Knights have faded down the stretch and it's not looking like they'll end up in the tournament field. But hopefully they do play well and improve that Kansas profile. All right, well, Graham, I appreciate you taking some time out of your day and talking all this with us. So once again, I'll let you reiterate some of the stuff you talked about at the top. Where can you find your work, and what do you have going on right now as we get closer to March? Yeah, I'm on Twitter, on X, as Graham Dorn Bracketology. You can find me there.

Starting point is 00:20:48 And you can also search for the Unnamed Bracketology Podcast on YouTube. All right. Thank you so much, Graham. And that'll do it for today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks. We'll be back at you on Tuesday to preview that pivotal KUBYU game. See you then with LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - A 5-Seed? A 7-Seed??? Kansas Jayhawks' Best & Worst Case Scenarios After Losing to Utah

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.