Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Are the Kansas Jayhawks Good Enough to WIN A TITLE? Why History Say KU Needs More Offense

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, based on what history tells us, is Kansas good enough to win the national title in 2025? Look at that. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, how's it going? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it, your team every day. Hey, how's it going? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked On Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:00:32 Thank you to every dayers catching each and every episode of the show. And on today's edition of Locked On Jayhawks, we're going to be discussing the question, is Kansas good enough to win the national title? And we're not just going to answer that question on, oh, I think so, or no, probably not. We're going to go into what past history tells us, statistic profiles, outliers, all that sort of thing. Is Kansas good enough? And I don't know, maybe the answer will surprise you. We'll find out.

Starting point is 00:00:52 Today's episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, new customers can get $150 in bonus bets with your first $5 bet. And thanks for joining us here on Locked on Jayhawks, making it your first listen every day and anywhere you get your podcasts or on our YouTube page. All right, so we're going to start up based on kind of this more broad filter.

Starting point is 00:01:13 And this is one that if you're an everydayer or, you know, if you used to listen when I was on Rock Truck Sports Talk that we did during March Madness, kind of filtering down who could win the national title. And we'll re-up that again this year just to kind of get a base view of are they good enough to win the title from that perspective. Then we're going to get into more intricate categories about like, okay, well, Kansas would, you know, be the worst team in this category and enforcing turnovers or whatever

Starting point is 00:01:38 to win a title or something like that. And then we'll kind of get to my takeaways and summarization of everything at the end here so the first thing that we want to look at for past national champions of college basketball i should mention the the data set i guess the the sample size that i'm going off of is back to 2001 why 2001 you might ask well that's just because uh that's where i can go back and get four NCAA tournament data on Ken Palm. So that gives us 23 national champions. Obviously, it gives us 24 seasons, but 2020 didn't have a national champion with March Madness not being played, sad face.

Starting point is 00:02:16 So anyway, we got 23 champions since 2001 to choose from. Every champion in that span has had a adjusted offensive efficiency rank of 57 or better the low point was 2014 UConn when they won it on that crazy run with Shabazz Napier and so if you're looking at it from that perspective well Kansas is ranked 40th right now in adjusted offensive efficiency that's been a number that's been slowly creeping down as the season's gone on so we'll see where they finish by the way these are all pre-tournament numbers again, but right now Kansas is in that range. So that would be okay. Now, when you look at the defensive side of the ball, every champion in that span has had a top 44 adjusted defensive efficiency. And

Starting point is 00:02:57 you know, there is kind of one weird outlier there with the 44 is 2021 Baylor, which was much higher than this. And then they had like a COVID thing go through the team then the defense dropped off but like they were a better defense than that if you wanted to go off the other number which would be 37 either way Kansas would still qualify their fifth in adjusted defense efficiency right now on Ken Palm uh top 25 overall adjusted EM rank that basically means your top 25 coming into the tournament on Ken Palm well guess what Kansas is 10th right now on Ken Palm in overall. So they would qualify their top seven seed in the NCAA tournament. Every champion since then has been a top 17. Well, we're going to see the early bracket reveal on Saturday. I mean, some of the bracketologists I've been looking at, I know Graham Doran,

Starting point is 00:03:39 you know, former KU grad who does really good work on the bracketology stuff. He's kind of had them as right on that hump of being between a three and a four seed right now. So, you know, even if you think, oh, I think they're more of a three seed, or if you think they're more of a four or five seed, that still is in the top seven at this point in time. Every national champion has either been with a head coach who has at least made a second round prior under his belt, so he has some tournament experience, or it's his first NCAA tournament.

Starting point is 00:04:06 The first NCAA tournament only applies for one guy. It again goes to that 2014 UConn team when Kevin Olley did it. So that team is just kind of the exception to the rule in a lot of ways. But obviously Bill Self has a previous national title. He has the coaching experience. And then the last one here is they made their conference tournament semis or further.

Starting point is 00:04:24 Every team since 01 has won the national championship has at least made the semi-final round that'll be interesting for ku that's not something we can judge right now but as of right now they're the five seed in the big 12th tournament which means they'd have to play on wednesday again just like they did last year when they got blown out by cincinnati when they were you know uh on what six guys seven guys that were available they had a bunch of player players like Kevin and Hunter were injured. But you look at it this year, that means, you know, you're going to have to win two games to make it to the semis,

Starting point is 00:04:51 which sounds crazy from where Kansas is. And then maybe they'll finish season strong and don't have to worry about that. You'll just have to win one game. But regardless, that'll be something to watch. So if you're just going off those, which are more the base ones, then Kansas would qualify for being good enough by those monikers to win a national title this year. And that is obviously a good thing. What if we narrow things down a little bit?

Starting point is 00:05:10 Because as you heard me talking about, like I mentioned, the 2014 UConn team, which is Baz Napier. But that team is more of an exception to the rule in a lot of ways. By their seed, by their offense rank, by their overall rank, by the head coach experience. All of those make them the ultimate exception to the rule. So what if we take away the exceptions? Okay. If we take away, we could say that 22 of the 23 last national champions, again, just removing that UConn team, ranked in the top 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency. And that is where you run into an issue here if you're Kansas, because again, you were ranked 40th at this point in time. Right now, they do not have the good enough offense to win the title. Andgy Coit gives you more of what you saw last game

Starting point is 00:06:05 and that we've seen in some other games on a little bit more of a consistent basis, right? Those are kind of the avenues, I think, for that happening, and then maybe more consistent play from the current guys you're kind of looking at. I don't know. It's just like there's not a lot of offensive firepower on this team that that one might be tough to get into.

Starting point is 00:06:22 But again, if you want to hold on to the top 57 then then you're fine there um and i should mention too the last seven champs have all been top six in adjusted offensive efficiency so that doesn't bode well for kansas there then again maybe you're sitting there going you know what i don't view this team as a national title contender anyway if they make like an elite eight i'll be happy with it right and then maybe this different discussion but still it's kansas basketball the goal is always to win a national title right okay so you look at the defense side of the ball 22 of the 23 champions the only exception to this rule again being that baylor team were top 37 but again kansas qualify there uh what's interesting is the last seven national champions going back to the the offense thing last seven national champions have been a

Starting point is 00:07:00 better offensive team than there were a defensive team coming in the tournament and i think there is something to the idea that like you can you still have to be a good enough defense to qualify for this right but as long as you're in the range of being a good enough defense it is easier to ramp up the defense right kansas you look at their 2022 team they were in the teens and defensive efficiency um coming into the turner actually they were lower and i i think they finished in the team they they were 29th um in defensive efficiency coming into the tournament in 2022 they wound up 17th you can ramp up the defense from being the 30th best defense to end it up the 15th best defense a lot easier than you can you know ramping up um the 60th best offense and turning into the 30th best offense. That is offensive talent that is shot-making over the course of the season.

Starting point is 00:07:47 So I do think that's interesting, and Kansas certainly would have to buck that trend. 20 of the 23 champions were top six in adjusted EM. And in fact, the last nine champions were top six on Ken Palm coming in to the NCAA tournament. In fact, six of the last seven were top four. Now, it's not impossible that Kansas could find their way into the top six on Ken Palm coming in to the NCAA tournament. In fact, six of the last seven were top four. Now, it's not impossible that Kansas could find their way into the top six. They're plus 25.81. There's a sizable gap, sizable-ish, to the sixth team, which is Alabama, who's plus 28.96.

Starting point is 00:08:19 And with the schedule Alabama plays, they're not going to get dinged if they lose a lot of these games. So probably not going to happen. But again, if you just want to go off the broader one, then you're okay there. 22 of the 23 champions were top four seats. Again, that's one that Kansas is kind of on the borderline of. And then every team who has won a title since 2001, that was not Connecticut, right? So you have Connecticut winning the title in uh what 2004 2011 2014 2023 2024 every school that was not connecticut in that span who has won a title has had a coach that previously had an elite eight or better and so obviously bill self would check that box pretty

Starting point is 00:08:57 easily and some for uh ku uh then also you get into the conference tournament thing again they all made the conference tournament semis 14 of the 23 champs did make the conference tournament finals but um i don't know the interesting part here for me was just uh this more of a footnote four of the last five teams who won the national title that also won their conference tournament were big east teams the only one who's the exception there is kansas so pretty much it has been over the history here don't win your conference championship or win your conference championship if you're in the big east or just have 2022 like you were kansas i don't know that that's just a weird trend just make the conference tournament semi-final so if you're going on the looser terms kansas is a

Starting point is 00:09:39 national title contender if you're going on the tighter terms by the offense offensive side of the ball that's kind of the big one that that's the Achilles heel right now for KU. Let's get into some more specific ones, though, like two-point shooting or turnover rate. Where does Kansas stack up to pass national champions in some of those areas? Our episode of Locked on Jayhawks today is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. When the game tips off, the NBA action is just getting started, and there's no better place to get in on it than with FanDuel,

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Starting point is 00:11:04 Find Locked On College Basketball or Locked on College football also I dig in into some of the more specific numbers how KU compares to past national champions now unfortunately these specific numbers like the effective field goal percentage or the the turnover rate offense or getting into the free throw line or whatever these are numbers that are not available pre-tournament that you can go back and find them pre-tournament they're only available pre-tournament that you can go back and find them pre-tournament. They're only available post-tournament. So these numbers are going to be a little bit different where these ones are, you know, you do have to factor in, hey, if you're at least close in this category, right, you do have to factor in that if you win six straight games in March, a lot of those numbers are going to go up, right, because you're going to be playing well to win a national title so this is one where it's less about can you be you know if every national champion's been in the top 180 and you're 185 it's like okay that might be good enough because again that ride might get you there but uh 24 of the past 25 national champions this is one that i can go back a little bit further so this one we're going back to 1999 just because

Starting point is 00:12:00 we wanted to put another yukon national championship in there. But no, 24 of the last 25 national champions had an effective field goal percentage by the end of the year in the top 115. You look at Kansas right now, okay, they're ranked 70th. Good enough, 53.4. 24 of the 25 national champions have had a turnover rate offensively in the top 150. Also good there. Kansas is in the top 100 right now. Although that number has been going down a little bit in Big 12 play, but neither here nor there.

Starting point is 00:12:28 Offensive rebound rate, 23 of the 25 were top 140 in offensive rebound rate. So this is one that Kansas started the season slow. They were bad at it last year. They have gotten better as the season's gone on. I think a big part of that was a lot of some of those lineups where you're playing Flory and Hunter, Flory and KJ, where it gives you a little bit more. They're now currently 168th

Starting point is 00:12:45 in offensive rebound rate but the number is up a tick or two in conference play so that could be a number that you know especially if you do go on a run in march probably would finish in the top 140 if you just keep on the trajectory you're on so i guess you could say they're okay there um top 175 Top 175 in three-point percentage. Kansas, despite some inconsistencies there, is actually 146th at 34.2%. Now, I will say, because modern basketball is different, if we were to go back, let's see, to 2018, the 2018 Villanova team that made a lot of threes, certainly, every team since 2018 has been top 75 that you know made a lot of threes certainly every team since 2018 has been top 75 nationally in three-point percentage so maybe with the way the game

Starting point is 00:13:31 is played now that one becomes even more important because the two years prior to that you had 148 and 105 so if you're going off that then Kansas needs to but also I think the way that Kansas is played right now and going back to they need more in offense, it would just take them having like a Malik Newman run from maybe like Ryland Griffin or one of these guys that like raises that three-point percentage anyway for them to kind of get through this point. A two-point percentage, 23 of the 25 champs had top 180 two-point percentages.

Starting point is 00:14:00 Kansas is good there. They're top 70 in the country. Free throw percentages were top 190 for 24 of the 25. is one where kansas has not shot free throws well but they do just clear this they're 187th nationally right now with the free throw percentage just under 72 percent that's barely clearing inside there uh then you look at some of the other ones this one's always interesting um bench minutes like having a deep bench is actually not correlated with in fact it's the opposite it is highly correlated that the teams with the exception of okay so 2017 north carolina they were top 70 in the country in bench minutes every other team

Starting point is 00:14:37 that has won a title since ken palm has tracked bench minutes which goes back to 2007 so 16 of the 17 we're not in the top 140 it almost behooves you to find that sixer like you need to be deep enough to have a guy or two you that can come off the bench and you can trust in case there's foul trouble or just if somebody's in a lull in the starting lineup that's absolutely true you need controlled depth right you need a good sixth and seventh guy maybe a good eighth guy right but you almost don't want to have good sixth and seventh guy, maybe a good eighth guy, right? But you almost don't want to have good ninth and like you want your rotation to be locked. You want your rotation to be set. Kansas right now in bench minutes is 222nd in the country. So I guess they would qualify their experience. 14 to the 70 were 17 were top 130. Kansas is number one. We haven't

Starting point is 00:15:23 really seen that payoff so far this year, though, unfortunately. High rating 15 to the 17 were top 130 kansas is number one we haven't really seen that payoff so far this year though unfortunately uh high rating 15 to the 17 were top 145 kansas qualifies their top 75 so really when when going through the offense even though the overall offensive rating isn't good enough a lot of the individual statistics they're right there or okay and actually for kent's what about on the defense side of the ball which has been kU's bread and butter to this point? 24 of the 25 champs, top 75 in effective field goal percentage defense. Kansas is sixth in the country there. This one's interesting, though. 24 of the 25 were defenses that prevented teams from getting to the free throw line at a top 170 rate. What was interesting is the offensive side didn't really correlate with much, which is good for Kansas,

Starting point is 00:16:04 because they've been really bad at getting into the free throw line. But that didn't correlate as much as the defensive side did. And Kansas is in the top 70 in free throw attempt per field goal attempt, right? All 25 champs since 1999 had a three-point 10th in the country right now which feels very weird to say when you consider like when you think of what typically you know these built self teams are when they have issues or like teams just going bonkers from three you think of like the k-state game right uh but they do qualify their two-point defense 23 of the 25 champs top 115 kansas's 16th only giving up 45 on two-point defense and then block rate 23 of the 25 were top 140

Starting point is 00:16:46 nationally kansas is top 35 the last one here we've gone through this whole way being like okay the overall offensive ranking needs to get better for kansas to apply for one of these parameters but a lot of these individual numbers are actually okay for kansas and we finally stumbled upon one that that is not the case. 24 of the last 25 national champions had a top 215 steal rate defensively. That's not like an overwhelming number necessarily. Kansas is outside of that. They're 236th and their turnover rate defense ranks just 271st. And you just played Colorado, a team who was the worst turnover offense team in the big 12, and they had their best turnover offense game of the season against you. So this is a number that's dropping for Kansas as well.

Starting point is 00:17:33 Now, the one exception to the rule was the 2004 Connecticut squad, which again, Connecticut just always ends up being the like exceptions of the role here. They were two 79. So I guess you're a little bit better than them, but I don't know. Does Hunter Dickinson have an Emeka oka for you know running him where he can dominate on on

Starting point is 00:17:49 both ends of the ball for kansas who knows so uh that's kind of interesting but i will say going through all this you might be a little bit surprised i certainly was surprised going through all this how many of these boxes kansas actually did check that like the big one with the offensive rating being where it is is not going to be good enough that is going to have to get better like point blank for kansas to go on a run in march and to have success in march but i do think there's maybe a little bit more working for kansas than you might think from perception you might think from the record you might think from some of the losses that they have suffered so maybe this is a little bit encouraging for you now

Starting point is 00:18:23 what are the takeaways? How does Kansas get better on that offense side of the ball? Let's discuss that next with Locked on Jayhawks. All right. Thanks for joining us on Locked on Jayhawks. And thank you to everybody who's catching all of our episodes. Again, we'll have a Kansas-Utah preview on Friday's episode to get you ready for things. It's a weekend ahead where Kansas is going to play at Utah. We might get a bonus episode out for you Saturday,

Starting point is 00:18:49 if we can, about whatever seed, unless they're left out, I guess, which that would be newsworthy as well. Kansas is in that, I guess, mock release or early release, whatever you want to call it, from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and where they would currently be at this point in time. So Kansas, again, going through some of these numbers actually stacks up okay.

Starting point is 00:19:12 But the big one I keep coming back to is that, yes, every national champions in 2001 is at a top 57 offense on Ken Palm and they are inside that. But again, if you take out that one exception to the rule, that one UConn team that, you know know even though over the course of the season they weren't an overwhelming offense in the tournament they were obviously a lot better and the reason I think you would point to that is say well they had really good guard play guards who could score the basketball right you think about Shabazz Napier who ended up being a first round pick uh you think about DeAndre Daniels who I think he was like an early second-round pick. I guess former KU recruit, DeAndre, or former, I don't know, KU target, DeAndre Daniels,

Starting point is 00:19:52 whatever you want to call. And then I'm trying to remember, Ryan Bowright, that was the other guy. Like, they had guys who could get buckets from the guard position. I don't know that Kansas, like Zeke Mayo could do that. I guess if Diggy Quake gets hot, that would be the other avenue for that happening, right? Rylan Griffin getting hot. But that's kind of what I consistently come back to. What ways can Kansas maximize the offense?

Starting point is 00:20:11 I think number one, like from this point forward, I think Ryland Griffin needs to be a double-digit point-per-game score for you. I think he needs to be averaging 10, 12 points per game the rest of the way for you to improve that offense and doing so on high 30s from three, right? If he shoots 40 even better he's been a slump the last three games what are you going to do though like if you can't like you don't really have many other options who can be as lethal of a three-point shooter as rylan griffin when he is going i think you just have to ride with it and deal with the

Starting point is 00:20:37 lows and hope that there's a peak that there is there's because here's the other thing it's not like this is like the nick timberlake thing where it's just like all year it was inconsistent and not very good it's like rylan griffin was shooting well from three before these last three games when he has oddly been starting so i don't know what but he's had other games he started before this stretch where he was doing okay so i think you just assume the shooting's gonna get better can he get like white hot what if he has a malik and this is this a bad thing to bank on because the malik new Newman March thing is not something you can count on every year. It's usually like a once-in-a-generation type of thing or a once-in-a-handful-of-years or once-in-a-ten-year type of thing that you can't count on that sort of thing happening all the time. But that is maybe a little bit of the hope that he can be at least like a 2.0 version of that, right, where he can shoot 45% from three in the month of March and just get hot for a while.

Starting point is 00:21:24 The other one, I think you need at least one of Digiggie Coy or A.J. Storr to be consistently getting you a point. You can't have, okay, Diggie Coy gives you eight points this game, and then the next two games he gave you two combined. Or like A.J. Storr gave you 10 points this game, the next two games he gave you four points combined. You need a consistent score from one of those two guys. And maybe he does alternate between the two, i i guess that could possibly be okay the other one is that flory um consistently finds what makes him great when flory is i think when every player on ku is operating at the best version of themselves there's nothing that looks like flory badunga on this kansas team and i think when he's operating at the best version

Starting point is 00:22:02 of himself he's the best player on the team. Unfortunately, he's a freshman, and you're not always going to operate at the best. I mean, even older players aren't going to operate at the best version of themselves all the time, right? There's so many things that go into it, and that's part of what makes sports what they are, because it's unpredictable, and these are humans, and we're not robots, and you don't get the same consistency.

Starting point is 00:22:18 It's not a video game where you're always at 87 every single day. Some days you're at 78, other days you're at 90, right? But can Flory play close to that ceiling as much as possible that would be the other one and then i think the last one that i'm looking to with like the offensive end of the court like what can you figure out with kj adam like can you get more five assist games from kj adams that would certainly help and then uh i guess i said the last one so i lied i guess but uh dewan harris can he be back to you know closer to like 40 three-point shooter he's been closer to a 30 three-point shooter this year if he gets up to 40 right that you combine that with a consistent bench score and rylan griffin

Starting point is 00:22:56 um to where you'd be a much better three-point shooting team and now teams have to respect all this stuff a little bit more i think it opens it up more for hunter and flory and kj and stuff those would be the avenues that i would be looking at to be like, okay, this team can be better on the offensive end of the ball. The last one would be actually a defensive one that would help the offense. It goes back to that turnover stuff, right? When you look at how bad Kansas is at steal rate and turnover rate, there's no excuse to be as bad as they are with the personnel. I'm not saying this team should be Houston or Iowa State in terms of forcing turnovers. I'm not even saying they should maybe even be a top 100 team.

Starting point is 00:23:30 But instead of being in the mid 200s, can you be top 150? Can you be 170th where you're like slightly above average? And when you look at it, it's like DeJuan Harris is pretty good at forcing steals, right? That's a good start to things kj adams has been a really good defender um he just had a what couple steals in the colorado game maybe it was three um like can you get some there how did it get in even though you know he has certain deficiencies on the defensive end has typically been pretty aware when like a pass is coming in that he has the ability to steal so like he'll end up with you know averaging a steal uh per game in some of his seasons right so like there's an opportunity there um you look at it if you're shaquille more like that should be your calling card some of the early games when he was starting that was

Starting point is 00:24:13 his calling card he was so good at getting steals that's kind of gone away can you get back to that right i don't know that it's ever really going to be the calling card for like store and griffin and stuff but that's not really what you're asking them to do. And then, like, can Flory do it? We've seen Flory be able to poke the balls free. He does more with, like, the blocking than getting the steals maybe. But can you get a little bit more from, like, Zeke Mayo? Can you get a little bit more from Ryland Griffin? Can you get a little bit more from some of these guys?

Starting point is 00:24:36 Get a little bit more steals that allow you to get in transition and throw more of those lobs to KJ Adams or Flory Badunga and make yourself a more efficient offense just because you're going to get higher efficiency plays out in transition. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page. Back at you Friday with a KU Utah preview. See you then.

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Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Are the Kansas Jayhawks Good Enough to WIN A TITLE? Why History Say KU Needs More Offense

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