Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Based On Past NCAA Champs, Does Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Have the Goods to Win the National Title?

Episode Date: January 29, 2024

Deep dive into Kansas Jayhawks basketball's chances at winning the 2024 NCAA National Championship or making a Final Four based on history and past National Champions and where they rank statistically compared to other profiles. What areas is KU good enough, what areas does Bill Self's team of Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar, KJ Adams, Dajuan Harris, Johnny Furphy and others need to improve and more.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, is Kansas good enough to win the national title? We look at past data to discuss if they are, if they're not, areas that they're good at to do it, and areas that maybe they're not. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. You can hear me as well, Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 p.m. on KLWN in Lawrence with Rock Chalk Sports Talk. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcasts,

including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're discussing is Kansas good enough to win a national title, looking at some past data and where they compare to some of those past national champions if they line up in some of those areas, especially with some of the recent struggles for KU. First, this episode of Locked

on Jayhawks is brought to you by FanDuel. Make every moment more. New customers join today and you'll get $200 in bonus bets. If your first bet of $5 or more wins, visit fanduel.com slash locked on to get started. So where KU currently compares to past national champions. We're going to get into this in a couple different ways. We're going to get into some of the more base numbers of where a team is entering. We'll get into some more individualized or I guess more detailed out numbers coming up later. And then what areas can they get better at? What areas are just,

they're not going to get better at, or it's too far of a distance or gap maybe for them to get there. The most important ones are these ones. First, coaching prowess. So outside of last year's Connecticut team and the 2014 Connecticut team, which just weird things run in the water for UConn apparently, every coach since 2001 who won a title had at least an Elite Eight under their belt prior to the national championship season. Dan Hurley last year, his furthest run was the second round, and then in 2014, UConn's Kevin Hawley was a first-year coach. Every other coach, since then, so if you just want to say every coach who's won a title since 2001 who's not at UConn has at least made an Elite Eight

before they won the national title. Okay, well, obviously Bill Self has done that and then some. So, you know, all good there. The seeding, every national champion since 2001 except 2014 UConn. Again, 2014 UConn is going to come up a lot in this as kind of the exception to the rule, which you can easily use the exception to the rule to be like, okay, well, KU is better than that 2014 UConn team, so enough said, boom. I like to work with some of this stuff to be like, okay, I understand that technically anything is possible and that's a good realization of that, but you're not going to bet on the exceptions of the rule. You're going to bet on the trends,

the thing that most often happens. And then when the things that surprise you happen once every, you know, two decades or once every generation, then you just, okay, shrug your shoulders and say, yeah, that's the beauty of sports that there really is no, you know, full on. But right now, every national champion since 2001, except that 2014 UConn team was a seven seed, was at least a top four seed in the NCAA tournament. And last year's UConn team was the first four seed in that every other team was a top three seed. Right now, KU should be fine there. Right now in bracket matrix, they're projected as like a lower two seed. I know Graham Doran, who does great bracketology, former KU grad himself, he has them as one of the top three seeds right now. So kind of in that two to three line at the

moment, given how the Big 12 is and how difficult it is, you know, let's say Kansas finishes, I don't know, six and five in Big 12 play and they get at that point 10 and eight in conference play. That doesn't sound great, but given the strength of schedule and the difficulty, difficulty, you're probably still looking at a 3- or 4-seed there. So I think KU should be in line for this to possibly happen. Offensive efficiency, 2014 UConn, there they are again. They were ranked 57th entering the tournament in offense. But outside of that, every title winner since 2001 was top 21 on offense, and all but 2011 and 2014 UConn.

So again, UConn just is the exceptions with all their different teams were top 18. So if you're looking at it this way, you need to at least be top 21 on offense, maybe preferably top 18. This is one that KU is not currently inside of. They're ranked 23rd, so they're just outside of this. But that is so close to it that they can easily get over the hump. And when you look at the way they've been going, I mean, they were ranked close to 40 as of a couple weeks ago. Since Johnny Furphy has entered the lineup, the offense has risen up,

and if they stay on this trend and stay on this positive arrow pointed up, they probably will finish top 21 or top 18. For instance, since Johnny Furphy entered the lineup in the Oklahoma game on January 13th, Kansas ranks eighth in offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. So not quite there overall, but you're getting there and heading in the right direction. Defensive efficiency, that 2021 Baylor team ranked 44th in defensive efficiency entering the tournament. But also that one was a little bit weird. They were like a top 30 defense, top 25 defense.

And then they had a spring of COVID kind of hit through the team. They, they had to like miss some games. They, they had some games that came back and they weren't the same. And then the defense picked back up in the tournament. So even then they were probably better than 44th. So I don't even necessarily view that as the exception, but even if you view them not as the lowest, the lowest would be 37th, which was 2009, North Carolina and 2015 Duke. So if you view them not as the lowest, the lowest would be 37th, which was 2009 North Carolina and 2015 Duke. So if you just view it as that, be a top 37 defense. Okay, even though the KU defense has dropped a bit lately in defense

and they haven't been an elite defense, they're still top 25 on adjusted defense efficiency. So you're well inside that parameter. And that's even with some of the three-pointers that keep going in against you. If some of that three-point variance, which right now Kansas is allowing 37% from three in Big 12 only games, you would think that's going to drop. Even if the three-point defense isn't great, usually you're going to see that at least drop to 34%, 35%.

So the defense could get even better there. I would think if it does, and just with Bill Self tightening things up, you probably could finish top 15 15 top 20 defense in the country so I think you feel good there now overall efficiency adjusted EM basically on Ken Palm 2014 UConn they were uh 25th entering the tournament so that would be the low mark so if you just want to say well you just got to be top 25 Kansas is in the top 20 they're 17th right now so you check that mark the next worst was 2003 Syracuse. Apologies for bringing that up. They were 20th entering the tournament.

Also 2011 UConn was 15th entering the tournament. Now I do actually find that interesting that you look at all three of those teams. What do all three of them have in common? UConn, Syracuse and UConn again. All three of them were in the Big East. Although 2014 UConn, maybe that was the American. But again, that's kind of, I don't know. of them were in the Big East, although 2014 UConn, maybe that was the American. But again, that's kind of, I don't know, maybe with 2003 Syracuse and 2011 UConn in the Big East, which was basically what the Big 12 is now, right?

You have a bunch of teams and a bunch of just elite teams that's constantly rugged and having to go win in difficult situations to where it'd be easy for Syracuse to be ranked 20th. It'd be easy for UConn to be ranked 15th in 2011. Realistically, maybe they were top 10, top 15 teams, but by playing a difficult schedule, maybe that became more difficult. I don't know. Maybe you could make that same argument with KU.

But beyond those three, every single team since 2001 to win the national championship outside of, again, 2011 and 2014 UConn and 2003 Syracuse, every single other champ since 01 was top six in adjusted EM entering the tournament including every single team since 2015 now so you can argue okay well we're on a run if it's happened every year since 2015 clearly there have been exceptions maybe that means you're due for one of those exceptions this year but point being right now Kansas is not really close to

being in the top six they're ranked 17th so that would be in it. But if you use the 2014 UConn, if you use even the other two with 2011 UConn and 2003 Syracuse as the kind of endpoints for the parameters, then Kansas is within it. And maybe you could argue as well that given how this year has gone and how this year, and just in general with the way that the transfer portal, with the way that NIL, with the way that still we have players who are getting extra years because of the COVID year, there are so many extra players.

There's so much extra talent that is spread around the country, spread around team to team. There's not those dominant teams out there. I mean, there was a stat that I saw last week that AP top 10 teams playing on the road against unranked teams like the previous five seasons. They were all around like, you know, 59, 60 plus percent in terms of winning percentage this year, at least coming into like this past weekend. It was like under 40 percent. So that shows you that it is much more wide open right now. And the difference between the eighth best team, the 40th best team isn't nearly as much as it was.

So maybe this is more of a year that you do expect, you know, that it is a wider base of teams that can win it all. So that one is just kind of the eye of the beholder, how you want to view that step. But overall, KU does fit in a lot of those parameters or has reason to make you think they can or are trending in the right direction. But let's get into some more specific numbers like defensive rebounding and offensive rebounding and turnovers and those sorts of numbers to show is Kansas in line with the past national champions? We'll get to that. And where can Kansas get better if they do want to win a national championship to get to that point on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks? First, this episode is brought to you by eBay Motors. Passion, drive, and patience. What brings home the winning trophy is also what keeps your ride or die alive. eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to peak performance from superchargers,

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Keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay guaranteed fit. Only available to U.S. customers. Thank you to the everydayers tuning in to each and every episode. We had a KU Iowa State recap. What went wrong in that one for the Jayhawks and what you can't really just explain. We'll have a preview for Kansas-Oklahoma State on tomorrow's episode,

so make sure you're subscribed anywhere you get your podcasts. Okay, so post-tournament full deep dive of stats. Those numbers we just went over were kind of the big ones that I look at going into a tournament, and those are pre-tournament numbers. The numbers that we're going to talk about right now are post-tournament numbers. So keep in mind, as we're going through these, you could easily say, well, those numbers, if you're entering the tournament here, even if you're within striking distance, if you are going to win six straight games in March and April, then those numbers are probably going to get better because you're going to be winning a lot of games. So do keep that in mind.

These are post-tournament numbers as opposed to the first segment, which was pre-tournament numbers. But here's areas that Kansas is hitting on of some of the parameters of past national champions. 23 of the past 24 national champions, so this goes back to 2001, finished top 115 in effective field goal percentage, checkmark, KU's top 25. We're top 150 in offensive turnover rate, barely a check for KU, so they're 13 132nd this is something that KU needs to watch because they are on kind of the borderline there 23 of the 24 were top 190 in free throw percentage surprisingly after the slow start and stuff for KU KU's actually top 80 in free throw percentage so check mark there 22 of the 24 last national champions were top 175 in three-point percentage offense. Okay, checkmark.

Kansas is actually top 50 there. 22 of the 24 were top 180 in two-point offense. Another checkmark. Kansas is top 25 there. That's been a strength for them so far this season. 15 of the last 16, the data just doesn't go as far back on this stuff, were not top 140 in bench minutes. Going back to the idea, you don't need a super deep team in March. I mean, we hear this

all the time. Timeouts are longer and everything during the NCAA tournament games. So you have more time to get players rested and everything. But also I think there is something to the idea of you don't want too deep of a bench. You want guys you can trust in those key moments that are battle tested throughout the season. So 15 of the last 16 were not top 140 in bench minutes. For what it's worth, Kansas would be the lowest because that 2012 Kentucky team was like 320 something. This one is 353, but it's actually better to be not as deep than it is to be deeper for the NCAA tournament, oddly enough, based on some of the data here. Now, I do think over the course of a regular season, it's better to be a deeper team.

But in the NCAA tournament, it actually behooves you to cut down the rotation. Now, we've had this conversation. We had it last week with Nick on the show that I do think you still need at least one guy off the bench you can trust that can come in and get you a bucket, if not two. You go back to the KU team two years ago, it was basically a seven man rotation but both guys coming off the bench with sly foot and uh remy martin you could trust

to maybe get your bucket or fill in here and there right now you're still trying to develop that at kansas but that's actually okay based on where they are in some of that stuff uh they also rank well in experience and height ranking for ku like really good overall in the country check on both those by a long shot so don't even need to get into that. Defensively, 23 of the 24 past national champions finished top 75 in effective field goal percentage defense. Another check mark for KU. They are top 45. 23 of the 24 last national champions were top 170 in free throw attempt per field goal attempt, basically meaning, are you avoiding giving up freebies? Are you avoiding fouling? Are you avoiding giving up free throws to the other team?

Well, Kansas ranks in top 55. Check. All 24 past champions were top 160 in three-point defense. This is one that, okay, so some of the close ones. The turnover rate on offense, that was a close one, but KU was still good there. This one is literally as close as it can. I said top 160.

Guess where Kansas ranks as of, I'm recording this on Sunday night, they rank 160th in three-point defense on Kenpump. So they are literally the last team inside that parameter. This goes back in line where I guess to the idea of, if you think there's a reversion coming though, it should get better. If you think this is all about the KU defense making mistakes, then maybe you don't think that. But yeah, they're barely inside it right now. 22 of the top 24 were top 115 as well in two-point defense and top 140 in block rate.

That's a double check for KU. They are top 30 and top 80, respectively, in those two categories. And then 23 of 24 were top 215 in steal rates. That one, not one that you had to clear by a huge mark, but Kansas gets another check there. They are top 100. So all those are areas that you are hitting in accordance with a lot of last national champions. Now, part of this one, as opposed to our first segment, is there are so many different styles to win. And in college basketball, where there are so many different ways that teams run strategically or have styles or have schemes,

it's more just about do you do what you do the best? You know, do you maximize what you do well? Because you can point to teams that are three-point teams. You can point to teams that press. You can point to teams that are rebounding. there are different ways to skin a cat just do what you do the best and so it is going to kind of muddle some of these uh mud up some of these waters a little bit just because you know you're getting a conglomerate so some teams are better at some things than the other and it makes some of these i guess categories lower than you think

but ku does fit in a lot of them what is the the area that KU is not hitting in the right now? What is, what are maybe some areas where KU is not up to snuff compared to past national champions? Well, 22 of the last 24 national champions were top 140 in offensive rebound rate. Kansas is only 217th. So that's one where they do have a lot of ground that they need to make up and become a better rebounding team. But where else? That's it. Among all the stats I looked at, kind of given from Ken Palm and everything, that was it, which is definitely a lot less than I expected, which

tells you that yes, there were a couple like the turnover rate, like the three-point defense, that they were close. They were kind of on the borderline too, but that's the only one. So can you improve at that one thing? Let's discuss if that is possible. Where can Kansas get better at? And also let's look at some numbers for maybe just the Final Four. Forget the National Championship. What about just making it to the Final Four,

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They've fallen short. If we just want to look at the couple where they're right on the borderline, I do think it's – I mean, if Kansas is to start winning more games, they're going to need that three-point defense to get better. So that would be certainly attainable. Some of it's luck. Some of it's strategic. Some of it is they just need to play better defense.

It's kind of a combination of all three, to be completely honest. I was looking at something. I posted this on my social media that apparently, and thank you to Kevin Flaherty of 24-7 Sports for looking this up for me, that on Synergy, the amount of jump shots that Kansas has given up that have been unguarded is 42%. So what they classify as unguarded, right? I don't know where exactly.

Is that wide open? Is it semi-open? Whatever it is. 42% of the jump shots Kansas has given up has been unguarded. Houston, who has the number one defense in the country, of their jump shots they've given up, 40%. It's like 39.8% have been unguarded. So that's not that big of a difference of the unguarded ones, Kansas to Houston. So again, like some of it is a little bit of bad luck going KU's way.

The turnover one offensively, you know, that's just something that we've seen has been a big difference for KU since really the UCF game. They've gotten better at it. So it feels like it's going the right way. With the offensive rebound, though, you were well on the outside again Kansas ranking 217th needing to get into the top 140 to be like 22 of the past 24 national champions now you might be wondering okay well who are the two exceptions to the rule because there is there anything we can cross compare this Kansas team to those two teams one of them was 2014 UConn okay that goes back in line with the bucket of do you really want to be counting on hey we're

going to be just like the team who was a seven seed who won it all who it was a crazy tournament and weird wild cinderella no you probably don't okay who was the other team 2016 villanova well that team had like three point dominance and they were really good on defense i don't know like you don't really need offensive rebounds if you're hitting a bunch of threes. You know what I mean? Like, part of the math game offensively is can you either get more possessions or can you score more efficiently? What's the most efficient way to score? It's wide open threes.

It's layups and dunks at the bucket. That's what that Villanova team did. So they don't really need the offensive rebounds to boo the offense. This Kansas team doesn't shoot nearly the volume of threes that that Villanova team does, nor do they shoot the same efficiency. So that's not great that those are the two, but can Kansas get better into that top 140? I do think they have the personnel to do better at it. That is a big jump you have to have, but it's one they can do as the season goes on. I mean, when you have Hunter Dickinson, a 7'2 big man, better defensive rebounder than offensive

rebounder, but still he can get offensive rebounds. When you have KJ Adams, who is this physical freak, the rebounding has been very inconsistent. Can you get that more consistently? Because he is somebody who should be a good offensive rebounder. Furphy's been a good offensive rebounder since entering into the lineup. I think Kevin can be a good rebounder on both ends. There's no reason they can't be top 140 in offensive rebounding. And then for what it's worth, if we're just looking at some of the ranks of pre-tournament ranks of teams to make the Final Four, all 88 Final Four teams since 2001

were top 11 seeds. That should happen for Kansas. 82 of the 88 were top 31 overall in Ken Palm. That's happening right now for KU. 85 of the 88 were top 68 on offense. That's good for KU. 81 of the 88 were top 50 on defense. That's also good right now for KU. 80 had a coach of the 88 who at least had made a sweet 16 or were in their first NCAA tournament appearance. And obviously Kansas has more than that experience with Bill Self. So Kansas actually does check all those boxes to make a final four.

The national title one needs a little bit of work, but it might be closer than you think based on some of those stats and parameters for KU. If they can just tighten things up a little bit, maybe have a few things go their way, maybe have the ball roll their way a little bit more, and we'll see if that can continue to improve over this next week. It's a big one with Oklahoma State and Houston on the ledger.

We'll get to our Oklahoma State preview later this week right here on Locked on Jayhawks. Make sure you're subscribed to the show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page. See you next time.