Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - BETTER or WORSE? Kansas Jayhawks in Big 12 Play Approach Postseason Hoping for More

Starting point is 00:00:00 Is KU a better, worse, or the same team that they were entering conference play? We're going to be breaking down some areas that they're better and worse and trying to answer that overall question for the Jayhawks. Plus, how is Big 12 tournament success correlated to NCAA tournament success for KU? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson, with another additional. Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. And thank you the everydayers

Starting point is 00:00:38 catching each in every episode of the show and making locked on the number one sports podcast network. We're going to answer the question is KU a better team today than when they entered the start of conference play? We're going to get into some areas that that are worse for KU during conference play. And then we'll finish up with, you know, how has success or lack thereof in the big 12th tournament correlated with NCAA tournament success or lack thereof for KU as well. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Game Time. Download the GameTime app. Create an account.

Starting point is 00:01:07 Use code locked on to get $20 off your first purchase. You can go to the Big 12th tournament over at GameTime. Okay, so KU is an interesting case study because if you look at Bart Torvik, they're 19th in the country on the season there with the number 48 offense and the number 10 defense. But if we just look at since January 1st, so really since conference play started, they're 23rd. actually lower than they would be now with the number 46 offense. So right in range with that, but a worse defense, 23rd on defense. And that would just be one easy way of saying, I guess technically they're a worst team now than they were of conference play. Now, obviously, when you look at sites like Torvik and Kenpom, they do adjust for your schedule and how difficult of opponents you're playing.

Starting point is 00:01:54 But even then, sometimes I wonder, is it doing it enough justice of just how difficult of a schedule? can be of the wear and tear and the grind that you go in. And does that go into it enough when you're playing some of these really good big 12 teams? But here's what I found really interesting, kind of digging into some of these numbers for KU against some of their better opponents this season. So KU is in the 92nd percentile for net rating, adjusted net rating in quad one plus quad two games. They're in the 93rd percentile for adjusted net rating in just quad one games.

Starting point is 00:02:29 And if you look at them fully on the season, they're right on that mark. This is a Kansas team that has done pretty much like it, it's almost like they do. I know they just got blown out on the road against Arizona and Iowa State, but they've done better against the better competition than they have done against the worst competition. And so I can't help but wonder, is this Kansas team that is going to be more upset prone in the early rounds of the tournament? but if they can get through that first game or maybe the first two games, maybe they are more dangerous to some of the higher seeds based on what they have accomplished and how they have played, right?

Starting point is 00:03:08 Like you think about Kansas losing to some non-tournament teams like West Virginia and Arizona State and kind of playing there with their food a little bit with Utah versus you think about Kansas, you know, getting wins over Arizona and Iowa State and Houston and BYU and at Texas Tech. I just kind of have that wonder. But here are some areas that KU has improved. approved over the course of Big 12 play from where they started conference play. Corner three balls.

Starting point is 00:03:31 So I guess big, big shout out to Trey White on that one who's consistently been in KU's top corner three point shooter. KU was shooting just 30.4% on corner threes as a team through the non-conference. And part of that was Cole Rosario and Jane Dawson were playing and we're not making them. In conference play, KU was shooting 36.5% from three from the corner. So that was always a number that felt like it was going to go up. and it certainly has for KU in conference play, and that's really helped Boone some of their three-point shooting. They've also done a better job in conference play to avoiding turnovers.

Starting point is 00:04:05 So in the non-conference games, Kansas had a 14.4% turnover rate, whereas when you look at Big 12-only games, they have a 12.8% turnover rate. Now, it sounds like a lot of numbers. You're wondering, okay, is that good? Like, what does that mean? In league-only play, they earn the 85th percentile nationally, in basically avoiding turnovers, with their turnover rate.

Starting point is 00:04:26 And so that becomes a huge number for KU because this is not a Kansas team that gets offensive rebounds. This is not a Kansas team that gets steals from the opposition. So you start to narrow down what are areas that KU can win the math game. There's a lot of ways to win the math game.

Starting point is 00:04:41 Shoot a lot of threes, make a lot of threes. Get a bunch of offensive rebounds. Dominate the glass. Turn the other team over. We'll get up more shots than your opponent. And KU doesn't do a lot of those things well. That has been the one area. they have started to turn on in Big 12 play,

Starting point is 00:04:56 they haven't been turning the ball over. And so as we look to the end of this season, that's going to be huge for Kansas. Can you continue to avoid turning the ball over? Because that is kind of your one way to, I don't know, sway the possession game, so to speak. Shooting over three percentage points better at the free throw line is another improvement for KU.

Starting point is 00:05:19 They were already shooting pretty well at the free throw line and non-con. They've actually shot a good amount better. conference play. And obviously when you get into some of these late games in March, like free throw shooting could decide it and could decide if you're able to hold on to a lead late. So that is a good thing for KU there. Other areas that they've improved, I would say, minorly here. Their adjusted free throw attempt rate is a touch better during conference play to a little bit better than nationally average. They improved slightly on all their two point range zones so that a little bit better at the rim, a little bit better in the paint, a little bit better at mid-range.

Starting point is 00:05:55 That one is actually pretty impressive to me, considering you're playing a lot better competition in terms of the size, the defenses, the fact that you're even just slightly better at all those areas in conference play than where you were non-conference play does speak well to once you get against these better opponents in an NCAA tournament field. Now, when you look at some areas that have dropped off for KU, the two-point percentage has dropped off by two points, which is weird because, again, you look at those numbers and you're like, okay, you look at those three zones and they're shooting better there. So I don't understand why that necessarily comes out to be the case.

Starting point is 00:06:35 But the three point attempt rate by a little chunk is one that KU has dropped a little bit there, even though the corner threes have gotten better. the adjusted defensive efficiency has dropped a little bit. They're still in the 93rd percentile nationally. And I'm wondering, I must have been looking at the wrong thing on the two point percentage because that just doesn't add up math-wise. But anyway, the biggest drop-offs for KU and conference play from the non-con have been assist rate, defensive rebound rate, and field goal percentage in transition.

Starting point is 00:07:08 And I think all of those come with different scales of worry to optimism. Okay. So KU had a 58 assist rate. in non-con. It's down to a 50% assist rate in conference play. And I think some of that is descriptive to the idea that KU with kind of the yo-yo factor of Darren Peterson and some of the stagnation that has led to at times when he's been in and out of the lineup, you've seen that more in conference play. The good news to that one is Peterson has looked really good as a passer the last couple games.

Starting point is 00:07:46 And the more games they continue to put together, the more you would think that's going to be helped. Is there enough time to fully fix it? Who knows? But that is one that isn't a good sign overall. You go from the 81st percentile to the 40th percentile, from non-conference to conference, but one that you could have reason for optimism.

Starting point is 00:08:05 The defensive rebounding is not one. I have reasons for optimism. They had a 72 percent defensive rebound rate in the non-con. In conference-only games, they're down to 68 percent. Now, there are a lot of teams in the Big 12 who are really good off-outhing teams. So that's going to obviously hurt you there. And as we look at KU's potential draws and who they could be playing,

Starting point is 00:08:23 I'm looking for teams who aren't good offensive rebounding teams. Now, maybe you look the opposite. Maybe you say you want good offensive rebounding teams from the standpoint of like, it could be a weakness for KU regardless of where they're playing. So I'd rather that be one of their strengths and use up one of their strengths on something KU was already going to give up. I don't know, two different ways to look into that. But that is one that has continually been a problem for KU.

Starting point is 00:08:44 KU this season and one that I don't really expect to change at this point. And then this one is crazy to me that if KU ends up going on a deep run in March, I think this will be one of those numbers that turns back to where it was in the non-con. Kansas was shooting 71% in transition play in non-conference. That is obviously very, very good. And part of that, you're playing lesser opponents. When you get out in transition, it's going to be an easy bucket. And so you would expect a bit of a drop off once you get to Big 12 play.

Starting point is 00:09:10 And the thing is, too, like, hey, you were still playing some good opponents in the noncon. But even if you said, okay, well, you're expecting not to shoot 71% in transition. Inherently, you're going to shoot better in transition because you're going to get some wide open layups and dunks and stuff. But you would say, okay, maybe it goes down a little bit, playing better teams, bigger size, like you're not going to get transition as much. You wouldn't expect to go from shooting 71% in transition in the noncon to shooting 54%. That is a ginormous drop off. And so if we see KU make a deep run, I can see them being more lethal again in transition, getting that number back up to where it was in the non-con,

Starting point is 00:09:46 maybe getting out of the Big 12 and some of these rugged opponents and the refs, you know, not letting you play as much. Maybe that's an area that can kind of help there too. But I found this interesting that the KU's adjusted O rating was actually the same in non-con as it was conference play according to CBB analytics. So some interesting numbers there. Let's get into the biggest areas of strength and weakness for KU headed into the postseason. And then we'll try to summarize this.

Starting point is 00:10:10 Is KU a better, worse, or the same team? as they were entering Big 12 play. I'm Clea Butler, host of Lockdown Women's Basketball. And this is Mazda's Women's Basketball snapshot, celebrating the work no highlight reel can ever capture. Number one ranked Yukon dominated St. John's 85 to 49 on Sunday at Madison Square Garden, extending its winning streak to 47 games. The Huskies kept a perfect 31 and O regular season,

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Starting point is 00:11:26 tickets to the big 12th tournament. It is the big stretch of college basketball season here with conference tournaments. And then obviously we get into the craze of everything. And if you're going to be traveling with your team in the postseason, you might be going to arenas you've never been to. that's where game time can really help out because with the game time app you can have the seat view which is a game changer you see panoramic view from your exact seat before you buy so again you're going to a stadium you've never been to to travel with the team for the postseason here you can see exactly what you're getting into and i was looking at tickets for the session k u is in in the big 12 quarterfinals that they'll be playing the winner of tCU against uh that play in game and then you'll get

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Starting point is 00:13:16 That is locked on jhawks.com. That is locked on jahawks. Dot supercast.com. Uh, link is in the show notes as well. All right. So three big strengths for KU entering the big 12th tournament. Uh, number one I would say is they were the number one team in the conference in block rate.

Starting point is 00:13:32 And as you get into the NCAA tournament, the more blocks you get that basically is the more guaranteed shots you're avoiding from going in, especially ones around the rim, which are typically going to be higher percentage. That can be really, really valuable to a team making a deep run. And we've seen Kansas go on some deep runs before, before with some good shot blockers kind of leading the way. They also are the number one team in the Big 12 in conference-only play in field goal percentage defense and a big reason why is the blocks.

Starting point is 00:14:00 And then they're number two in the conference in free throw percentage. Now, I would love to have picked another stat besides that. A lot of the other ones were actually more in the middle of the pack. It actually wasn't a great stat resume overall for KU and Big 12. only play, but that does have some value late in some of these games. Three biggest weaknesses for KU during conference play statistically. They were 15th, so second to last in Big 12 action in steel rates. So again, now a team was really forcing a lot of turnovers there.

Starting point is 00:14:26 They were last in the league in offensive rebounds per game. So again, we're getting into the possession game where KU is not winning it a lot outside of just avoiding turnovers themselves. And then this one I found interesting, KU just 12th in Big 12 only play in two point percentage. Now, how much of that was driven down by just, I guess really the two-game swing of at Arizona and at Arizona State more specifically, like if you just took away the Arizona State game, would KU be like seventh or eighth? I'm not entirely sure, but it is a lot of close teams together kind of in the middle of the pack. So it could just be one bad game is make look even worse than

Starting point is 00:15:01 it probably actually is. But that is something that like, listen, I can understand some of these shots not going in. You got to be a man and finish around the rim if you want to win NCAA tournament games and that's going to have to be better for KU moving forward. The biggest play strength for KU offensively, they're in the 98th percentile on Biggs cutting and rolling in conference only play. So this is basically KU taking advantage of the mobility of Flory Bedunga. Florey's not the best back-to-basket big, although I think he has gotten better from a year ago.

Starting point is 00:15:32 He's an excellent pick-and-roll big man. And even Bryson Tiller's a pretty good pick-and-roll big man as well. that if you're looking for potential matchups, teams who struggle defending the pick and roll or defending the bigs in the pick and roll, that is one that I'm kind of looking at there. Now, the biggest play weakness offensively for KU has been pick and pop, which also has been KU's biggest weakness defensively. So pick and pops in general, not kind to Kansas, which is funny because you would think Bryson Tiller would be somebody who you'd want to be picking popping with. But I don't know if that's just not really part of the bill self like normal regimen. or, you know, what. But KU has struggled defensively as well, defending pick and pop.

Starting point is 00:16:13 Like think back to the Cincinnati game with their bigs, being able to catch it, being able to drive, being able to shoot threes. So that's something else I'm looking for, impossible NCAA tournament matchups. Do they have a big who is good at pick and popping? Because if so, that's going to be quite the difficult matchup for KU, as we've kind of seen all year long. Play your stats that have most improved or decreased in Big 12 play for KU. Here's some of the better ones. Flory Bedunga at 2.7 blocks per game on the season.

Starting point is 00:16:41 He's up to 3.1 blocks per game in conference-only play with a block rate rising from 8.4% to 10%, which puts him in really strong company anytime you're getting into double digits there. He also shot around 11 points better at the rim in league action. So really good stuff there. This was something I found interesting with Bryson Tiller. His free throw attempt rate skyrocketed in conference play. It was below average. if you're just looking at his non-con rate,

Starting point is 00:17:08 it went to above average in conference play. KU needs him to be aggressive. And I think we all know that. The best version of Bryson Tiller is the aggressive one that's getting into the free-throw line, attacking the rim, hitting that little, you know, fadeaway floater, and getting rebounds and being aggressive for KU.

Starting point is 00:17:22 That's the version they need of him. And I think that goes with a stronger free-throw attempt rate. This one I found interesting, too, because I think it speaks a little bit to Darren Peterson trying to find other ways to make an impact here as the season's gone on. Peterson's offensive rebound rate in non-con play was in the 12th percentile for guards, so he just wasn't really doing it.

Starting point is 00:17:41 He's in the 68th percentile now. And as we ramp up the intensity and maybe he becomes a little bit more willing to lay his body on the line with it being the postseason, he's a bigger guard who has that ability. I wonder if that's some way that KU can be a little bit better on the offensive glass. How about Marco Jackson? His effective fuel goal percentage has risen by like 10 percentage. points and his free throw attempt rate went from above average to 90 second percentile in conference play. His steel rate went to 92nd percentile from just ninth percentile from the noncon to

Starting point is 00:18:15 conference play. The irony of this all is El Marco has not been playing well of late and he might be losing his spot in the rotation, but overall he actually played a lot better in conference play. And then Melvin's two-point shooting, Melvin counsel shot 5 percent better at the rim, 5 percent better in the paint and 18% better in the mid range in conference play than he did in the non-con. Now, here's some of the numbers for individuals that are worse in a big 12 play for KU of note. Melvin Council's turnover rate went from really strong to just about nationally average in Big 12 play, which is ironic because KU's overall turnover rate got better, right? And his three-point shooting, I think we rest a little.

Starting point is 00:18:55 He was shooting 36% from three in non-con play. He's just under 30% from three in Big 12 play. Can you get back up to that for the home stretch here, right? Trey White's free throw attempt rate, he was one of the best foul drawers in the country in noncon, 97th percentile. If you look at Big 12 only games, 61st percentile. So still above average at it. His two-point shooting, though, goes from 58 percent to 43 and a half percent. They need Trey White to be the version we saw in the first half in terms of his rim presence,

Starting point is 00:19:26 both finishing on the interior and getting to the free throw line, right? And then Bryce Tillers' turnover rate has jumped by 5%, which I think correlates with teams have noticed that he struggles against double teams. So we'll see if KU finds a counter for that in the postseason, or maybe if by playing teams who aren't scouting you as heavily in theory or playing you as often, don't get a feel for that as well as some of the big 12 teams do. Darren Peterson's shooting is down by about 10 percentage points, by effective field goal percentage. but did we see the start of a new lift with the K-State game? And then this one I found interesting to, Jamari McDowell's three-point shooting dropped from 42% in the non-con to just over 30% in league action.

Starting point is 00:20:11 And it's like if Jamari's shooting 42% from three, you can play him 20-25 minutes game. If you're shooting 30% from three, that number goes severely down. So that's going to be a really impact number to watch in the postseason for KU. So overall here, I would say this. I think KU in general was to me about the same team in the conference portion of the season that they were in the noncon.

Starting point is 00:20:33 But that comes with the in and out of Darren Peterson. And I think if what we saw in the Kansas state game was really the start of something and you take verbatim what Darren Peterson said in the post game about feeling better and feeling the best he's felt all season, if that is all true and it plays out, I do think Kansas is set up to be the best version of. itself this postseason. But we got to wait and see. All right, let's finish up. How has the Big 12th tournament results? How is it correlated with different NCAA tournament results for KU? We'll get to that next. This episode of the show is brought to you by Robin Hood. What if sports were traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robin Hood prediction markets. It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live

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Starting point is 00:22:55 slash podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on Locked on Jayhawks. Indeed.com slash podcast terms and conditions apply need to hire. This is the job for Indeed sponsor jobs. Thanks yet for joining us. Don't forget you join the everyday or club where you can get the ad free version of the show. Join our March bracket pool and join our Discord server as well. Okay. How is KU done in the Big 12 tournament? How is that correlated with the NCAA tournament? Obviously, no. Big 12th tournament in 2020 for COVID and then 2021, technically Kansas undefeated in the Big 12th tournament.

Starting point is 00:23:36 They had to bow out for team COVID in 2021. So I actually didn't count either for these correlations. But I found this kind of interesting. So KU lost in the quarterfinal round earlier last year and the year before being the two earlier on these four occasions. These are just underbill self for what it's worth. They had a first round, a second round, a suite 16, and an elite eight appearance. So a little bit over the board, right?

Starting point is 00:24:06 If you average it out, though, when KU lost in the quarterfinals or earlier the Big 12th tournament, their average was between making the second round of the suite 16 of the NCAA tournament. Also keep in mind this, no team has won the national championship who hasn't at least made the conference semifinals. Now, I don't know. Are we past the point of this Kansas team being able to win a national championship? Do you still believe in it? Who knows? Of the Kansas teams that lost in the Big 12 semifinals, you have a first round exit,

Starting point is 00:24:34 you have a second round exit, you have an elite eight, and then you have a national runner-up. That was the 2012 team, which lost in the semis to Baylor and ended up making it all the way to the national title game. So if you look at the teams on average that lost in the semifinals, you have an average of just beyond the sweet 16. Then you look at the only team, or there's been three KU teams, sorry, who lost in the Big 12th title game. This is kind of a weird correlation. The three Kansas teams that have lost the Big 12th title all lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament. And I have kind of a theory as to why, but real quick, here's the teams that won the Big 12th tournament for Kansas. First round exit, second round exit, Sweet 16, three of those teams made elite eight,

Starting point is 00:25:18 It's final four and both Bill South National Championship teams won the Big 12th tournament. So it is outside of the teams that lost in the finals, which again, I'll try to explain that, that kind of weird correlation in a second. It is kind of an upward arrow. The teams who lose in the quarterfinals are earlier, averaged out between the second round, the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tournament. Then you go to the Big 12 semifinals and lose there. Now you're averaging out just beyond the Sweet 16. And then you win the Big 12 tournament and you're averaging out just beyond the elite eight. So there is a trending arrow.

Starting point is 00:25:49 Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule both ways. I mentioned first round exits for like all of those categories. But on average, the more often situation was the deeper you go in the Big 12th tournament, the deeper you go in the NCAA tournament. Again, there's exceptions to the rule both ways. So it's not gospel. But I think the, the, the, easy way to explain that is just the simplicity of if you go further in the Big 12th tournament, that probably means you had a better team.

Starting point is 00:26:17 And if you have a better team, on average, you're going to go deeper in the NCAA tournament. So maybe not just worth really looking in too much. What I do find interesting is when you lose in the Big 12 finals and all of those teams in second round exits. And here's what I viewed that. I think when you lose sometimes in the early round of a tournament, right? I think of the 2016-17 Kansas team. I think Josh Jackson was suspended for that game.

Starting point is 00:26:41 But nonetheless, like that team got upset by like an eight or 19 in TCU in the first game of the big 12 quarterfinals. And that team obviously ended up making an elite aid and everything, but that was just a case of beyond the suspension, like a team getting upended. You look at the 2012 team who loses to Baylor, like a pretty good Baylor team and everything. But again, like, that's just kind of a situation of getting upended, right?

Starting point is 00:27:07 And you flip that to teams who make the championship game. Like, once you're in the championship game, the level of motivation and seeing the trophy and being right there is obviously very high. And so if you have a really good team, if you have a really talented team and you're in a championship game, a lot of times, like, the best team is just going to perform in that moment and is going to win that game. Right. And so if you're a team that goes to the championship game but loses, it's almost like maybe that's a bit of an indictment on your talent.

Starting point is 00:27:49 And I think back to some of those teams, like I think back the 2018-19 team that had, you know, Deidric Lawson leading the way Doke was obviously hurt and stuff for KU. That team lost in the Big 12 championship game. And that team was obviously very flawed. And it was like kind of a crazy run to get there, but then they lose in the Big 12 championship.

Starting point is 00:28:04 And it kind of, it's like one of the situations. It's like, once you're there, if you lose, it almost exposes flaws more than if you were to just toss away an early exit and be like, yeah, you just wasn't your night. You know, it shouldn't be just, just not your night if it's a championship game. You should play very well. So I don't know, maybe something to that.

Starting point is 00:28:21 But point being, yeah, the better teams tend to go further in both. So this is obviously a different animal, bigger Big 12, more elite teams at the top. Kansas isn't the one seed or the two seed in this big 12 tournament like many of those other ones. But I do think there is something to be said for this Kansas team who prior to the K-State win had lost four of six games and is looking to rebuild momentum. that this is a very important Big 12th tournament for KU. All right, that'll do it for this episode of Lockdown, Jayhawks.

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Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - BETTER or WORSE? Kansas Jayhawks in Big 12 Play Approach Postseason Hoping for More

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