Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Big 12 Title Race: Kansas Jayhawks Path Opens Up Alongside Texas Longhorns

Episode Date: February 23, 2023

The Big 12 men's basketball title race is coming down to Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns with three games to go, but a few paths have certainly opened up for KU and Bill Self to claim a share or win the league outright. Plus, what it will take for the 'Hawks to earn the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Place your first FIVE DOLLAR bet to get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Free Bets – win or lose! Visit Fanduel.com/LockedOn today to get startedFANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked On Jayhawks, we examine the top of the Big 12, the race to the finish line. Who's still in it? Does Kansas have a big leg up? How far out is Texas? What's going to happen down the stretch here? All that and more on today's edition of the show. You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Some interesting results last night in the Big 12, compounded with Kansas beating TCU. And now we have three games to go in Big 12 play.

Things are rounding out. Looks like things have narrowed down for the Big 12 title race. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well on Rock Chalk Sports Talk, Monday through Friday, 3 to 6 on KLWN in Lawrence. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We're free and available wherever you get any of your podcasts. You can also find us and subscribe to us on our YouTube page.

On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're going to be discussing that Big 12 title race with just three games to go, where everything sits, who's still involved at the top, what does Kansas have left, what does Texas have left, what do they have to do to finish, who realistically is going to win the league, could there be a share, all those sorts of things, and then we'll kind of finish up with KU's path to possibly being the number one overall seed

in the NCAA tournament. So we'll get started right off the top here with who's still in it, who's still alive for the Big 12. So last night, you have a beating Baylor by 10. And basically that leaves that with Texas kind of blowing out Iowa State and Austin. Now Kansas and Texas are tied for first in the Big 12 at 11-4 in conference play. Because of the Kansas State win, they move into a tie for, at that point, third place with Baylor at 9-6. Then you have Iowa State at 8-7, TCU, Oklahoma State 7-8, and so on down the list. For the purposes of winning

the Big 12 12 obviously you have to be within three games at this point uh but kansas plays texas that means that one of those teams has to win the game which guarantees one of them will get to at least 12 wins and that's just based on the mathematical like elimination purposes which means iowa state at eight and seven would be eliminated because best they can do is 11-7. So mathematically, there are only four teams left that can win the Big 12. Kansas, Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State. But if we're examining the paths of these teams and trying to really figure out who's going to win the Big 12, it's going to be

pretty steep for Baylor or Kansas State to get at least even a share of the Big 12. Because think about this. For Baylor or Kansas State to get at least even a share of the Big 12. Because think about this. For Baylor or Kansas State to win the Big 12 or get at least a share, that means that whichever one or both, they're going to have to win out. So first of all, that's already hard enough on its own. Like Baylor, their final three games, their home against Texas, at Oklahoma State, home against Iowa State. All winnable games, but all losable games as well in the big 12 for kansas state uh they play at oklahoma state home oklahoma

at home and then at west virginia that's probably a more winnable slate to win all three but even then like they could just drop one game so then if they win all three even if that happens then you're banking on both kansas and te and Texas going one and two down the stretch, which means that you need whoever wins the Kansas-Texas game to lose their other two games. So you basically would probably need Texas to beat Kansas and then lose to both TCU and Baylor, and then you would need Kansas to, at that point, lose one of two between Texas Tech and West Virginia in addition to losing to Texas. That's a lot of steps, all things that, you know, in a vacuum, like none of those are impossible, but you add them all together and the odds are against it. So it becomes very,

very difficult for that to happen. Like I said, that's laying out the path of how it could happen, but I don't really want to discuss that too much more because those are kind of the unlikely scenarios. Realistically, we're down to Texas and Kansas, which makes sense that the two teams tied for first. There's three games to go. You're up two games on the rest of the competition. If we look at the schedule, if we look at what's remaining for both these teams for Kansas, you're at home against West Virginia on Saturday you're at home against Texas Tech on Tuesday and then you're at Texas on the following Saturday the final Saturday of the regular season Texas meanwhile is at Baylor they're at and that's on Saturday they're at TCU next week and then they're at home against Kansas for those final Saturday games.

That's a much tougher slate for Texas. Doesn't mean that West Virginia or Texas Tech can't come into the fieldhouse and beat you. I mean, we've seen Texas Tech come into the fieldhouse and beat Kansas recently. We've seen them almost beat Kansas recently. Like, last year you had to go to double overtime. This isn't as good of a Texas Tech team.

They are playing a lot better basketball. They're on a bit of a roll right now. so maybe they are a little bit scarier than normal but still a game you're expected to win with west virginia again we've seen them come into the island field house and nearly beat kansas and we've seen a couple crazy comebacks like i think it was uh 2015 where kansas had to come back i don't know maybe 10 points or something like that with a couple minutes to go and it was just a free throw game then 2016 was the year that um kansas had to have the the crazy comeback that everyone remembers with davante graham hitting like the shimmy shake three and everything so um you know they they've had kansas in tough positions before but kansas has been able to win but again a game that you're

going to be expected to win the one coin flip game is the game at Texas. Meanwhile, for Texas, they're playing three coin flip games. At Baylor is a game that they're not going to be favored in. At TCU is maybe going to be a pick-em. Maybe TCU is favored. Maybe Texas is favored. Probably depends what happens over the weekend here. And then the Kansas game, another coin flip game. And if you just compare it, like looking on Ken Palm,

Ken Palm gives out like a percentage of chance to win the game. And that's not everything, but it gives you maybe a rough ballpark estimate or an idea where they're at. Kansas is a 74% chance to beat West Virginia at home, 83% to beat Texas Tech at home, and then 42% to win at Texas. Meanwhile, for Texas, it's 43% at Baylor, 49% at TCU and 58% at home against Kansas. That means if you're just, if you're just cross comparing like, uh, Texas most winnable game, that would be the Kansas game, which is 58%. Well, Kansas is most winnable game is 83%.

So that's another 25 percentage points for Kansas. Then the second most winnable game, 49% for Texas, 74% for Kansas. So there's another 25%. And then the last one, Baylor, 43% for Texas, Texas, 42% for Kansas. So realistically, Kansas is like 49 win probability points over the course of three games, an extra 16% or so chance to win each game on average over the last three schedules a lot more favorable for ku and i think that's what you're seeing right now if you go to fan duel and you check out their odds to to win the big 12 um even though both on ken palm are projected to go 13 and 5 i think the 13 and 5 is a little stronger of a projected projection for kansas than it is for texas like theirs might be hanging on by five is a little stronger of a projected projection for Kansas than it is for Texas.

Like there's might be hanging on by a thread a little bit more, but Kansas is minus two 40 on fan duel to win the conference. Texas is plus one 70. So they're not, you know, some huge underdog here, but it's clear that the betting market is viewing this the same way that Kansas has a much easier path to getting at least a share of the big 12 than Texas does. Then you drop down by the way,

as, as we're, you know, eliminating those other schools from contention, so to speak here, Baylor is 50 to one to win at least a share of the big 12. So, uh, that's, that's how far the drop-off is there. I will say though, you win this bet on Fan on fanduel if if a team just gets the share so even though kansas has a much easier path to getting a share and whereas texas is going to have to scramble a little harder to get the share the share might still be the more likely option like if kansas think about it this way if kansas beats west virginia and tech texas goes one and one at baylor and at tcu. And then Texas beats Kansas. It's just a share. That's a very reasonable scenario. If they share the conference, you win the bet

on either team you placed for winning the league. So honestly, the betting choice would probably be to take Texas right now plus 170 because the share is such a viable option. But overall, if you're having to stake your claim on just one of the two and you're saying well i feel better about this team than this team getting at least a share or i feel better about this team winning it outright you're gonna absolutely go with kansas because of the schedule down the stretch and also that doesn't account for the fact that like under all the assumptions that texas is gonna win at least to share the league they're gonna have to beat beat Kansas in the final game.

They're going to be at home. They're a very good team. Very possible. We saw them beat Kansas at home last year, but how many times in Bill Self's past have we seen them, you know, have a, have a chance to,

or another team has a chance to win the league or kind of be in that position. And Kansas plays them on the road and they sneak up and they kind of steal one. Like think back to the Baylor game in the 2019-20 season where Baylor at that point is like undefeated or has one loss in big 12 play. Kansas has only lost at home to Baylor and they go on the road and they beat them. Think back to the 2018 season when they're playing at Texas Tech where I forget if the Tech lead was one or if it was tied and KU is going down to Lubbock and

Devontae Graham hits that crazy shot and they win the going down to Lubbock and Devontae Graham hits that crazy shot and they win the game down in Lubbock. There's so many other ones in Bilsop's past where he's been able to win those types of games that you can't even chalk that up as even close to a sure thing for Texas in the finale. We're going to get on to what KU's best path is, what the easiest path, most likely, most logical, maybe rank out those situations for Kansas to win. At least share the Big 12 and maybe the Big 12 outright coming up in our next segment. But first, this episode of Locked on J.H.U. by FanDuel Sportsbook. The midway point of the NBA season is here

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That's FanDuel.com slash locked on to learn more. Make every moment more with FanDuel, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. So what is KU's best path? What is their most logical? Let's start with just winning at least a share of the conference. Realistically, Texas is going to lose one of these next two at Baylor at TCU. Now, if they do win both, then basically it comes down to can Kansas win in Austin? But realistically, if they lose one of two, which I think is the most likely scenario,

they're both coin flip games, They win one, they lose one. Then for Kansas, you're looking at, well, just beat West Virginia and Tech. Win both of your home games, and you get at least a share of the Big 12 title. But if Texas were to hypothetically lose both, then all you got to do is win one game to get at least a share of the title. So I think the most likely scenario for ranking these out, number one, And all you got to do is win one game to get at least a share of the title. So I think the most likely scenario for ranking these out, number one, is you win out at home, Texas loses one of their next two. I think that's the most likely and logical area for how KU gets at least a share.

The number two is you have Texas lose twice, I guess, with the Baylor and TCU games. And then I think of the scenario where Kansas were to win all three, they would just win it outright. So that would go in this other column here. So those are basically your two scenarios. Because, I don't know, either just win out at home, have Texas lose once, or have Texas lose twice, and then you just got to take care of one or two at home. That's the second most likely scenario.

Now, if we're looking at scenarios for how Kansas or, uh, you know, winning the big 12 outright, which you might say, well, I don't, you know, whatever. Um, I think that would certainly be a nice boon for them in trying to get a higher one seed in the NCAA tournament, which we'll discuss that next year in a second. But when you're looking at winning the Big 12 outright, KU's most likely scenario there is just winning all three. You win both games at home and then you win at Texas. Boom, you have the Big 12 outright. your second most likely scenario there would probably be Texas loses both of their road games

at Baylor and TCU and you just win your two home games and then you go into the final game of Big 12 play at Texas with a two-game lead in a game that doesn't really matter and even if they beat you you still win the Big 12 outright I think that's probably the second most likely scenario but the most likely scenario, if you want to win the league outright, just win out. Now, there's also the scenario where what if Texas goes one-on-one against Baylor and TCU, and you happen to go one-on-one against West Virginia and Tech, but if you win at Texas, then you win outright. Basically, any outright scenario involves

you just beating texas or them losing both games between baylor and tcu and you winning both home games so those are kind of the scenarios that we're looking at now for uh ku moving forward and i i think that you know in a year that the big 12 has been so dominant and so good it's it's less important that you have to win the league outright i mean shoot In a year that the Big 12 has been so dominant and so good, it's less important that you have to win the league outright. I mean, shoot, last year they shared the league with Baylor. They ended up winning the title. How much does it matter?

Probably not a ton. But in the moment, there is a pride factor to it, and it is such a nice resume booster. If you do win a league as good as this, to win it outright, to be the for-sure champion, it's not a co-champion thing, and then you you you leave a little bit less stress for the big 12 tournament because um you know sometimes if the league is tied whichever team goes further or ends up winning the the league tournament the ncaa tournament committee might give them the edge and go well you tied in the regular season they won the tournament

you didn't you know then you don't really have to worry about maybe that as much. So that would certainly be a nice boon for Kansas. Just try to win it outright. But at the very least, you take care of your next two at home. You should be in a position that you're at least getting a share of the league. We're going to finish things up here with Locked on Jayhawks. KU's path to a higher one seed and possibly the number one overall seed and how much it's kind of tied together with what's going to happen here down the and possibly the number one overall seed and how much it's kind of tied together with what's going to happen here down the stretch in the big 12. Kansas came in as the

number four overall one seed after the NCAA tournament committee released their early reveal over the weekend. And there were some rumblings that they had kind of put the seating together on like tuesday or wednesday morning before purdue had lost at maryland and so that could have affected things and then on top of that on saturday after the reveal purdue got a fine win but it wasn't nearly as good as kansas's win beating baylor which is a high quad one win so a lot of people were assuming after that, that Kansas would already jump to kind of that, that number three overall one seed.

And then Kansas wins at TCU. Their number of quad one wins grows even more. I saw, I think it was Matt Norlander wrote that the most quad one wins ever recorded in a season, as far as he could find, was 14, since they started keeping track of the number. Kansas already has 14, and they have, I mean,

I don't know if Tech would be a quad one win, probably not, but I think West Virginia might. At Texas, certainly would, and then you'd have more chances in the Big 12 tournament. So you have chances to really rack up those quad one victories. But I think West Virginia is actually like 30th. They're like right on the cut line for those home games. So anyway, that one could go back and forth.

But when you look at things for Kansas, they've amassed all of those wins and that insane resume that it's gotten them into that conversation now where you're hearing people talking about are they the number one overall seed or are they in discussion where do they lie have they jumped houston have they jumped alabama because of all these quad one wins and because of kind of the role they're on here and i think that if they can win the big 12 outright it's going to be hard not to give them the number one overall seed and again again, keep in mind, if you win the Big 12 outright, that probably means you're winning all three games.

Again, there is the scenario where Texas loses at Baylor and at TCU, and then you lose to Texas in the finale. And then at that point, maybe it's dependent on what happens in the Big 12 tournament. I, to begin with, was a little confused why they were behind Houston, but it seems like they are certainly valuing the strength of record statistics. And Kansas has moved up to number one in that as of yesterday. So that would give them an edge in addition to the quad one wins, probably over Alabama and Houston right now.

What does happen if they share the league though? If they beat West Virginia and Texas tech, and then they lose at Texas, Texas wins one of Baylor and TCU, then they beat Kansas, and you're sharing the Big 12. Then all of a sudden, in the Big 12 tournament, you don't win the Big 12 tournament, and Texas wins the Big 12 tournament. At that

point, I feel like you're probably getting two one seeds from the Big 12, and you're probably limiting Kansas away from being the number one overall seed. I think for Kansas to be the number one overall seed. I think for Kansas to be the number one overall seed, you're looking at basically one of two things has to happen. You either have to share the Big 12 and then win the Big 12 tournament, at the very least

go to the Big 12 tournament championship, or you have to win the Big 12 outright in the regular season and then win at least your first game, win your quarterfinal game in the Big 12 outright in the regular season and then win at least your first game, win your quarterfinal game in the Big 12 tournament. The resume is going to be so good that even if you lose in the Big 12 semis, but you won the Big 12 outright, it might be enough for the number one overall seed. But still, at the end of the day, that's going to be a bit dependent on, well, does Alabama win out? Do they win the SEC tournament? Because then they could jump you. Does Houston win out? Now, they're not going to rack up a ton of great wins here. Their schedule

is relatively simple and easy outside of a road game at Memphis to finish out the season. We'll see what bestows them in the AAC tournament, but it's not going to be nearly the schedule that KU is going to be playing. For Kansas, I think the way you're looking at it, even though they were behind Houston,

and you might be saying, even if they were behind Houston, if there was, I'm trying to think how many games were left to play at that point, five plus conference tournaments. If in that five game stretch, it's not as simple to say, well, if Houston went five and O and Kansas went four and one, they were already ahead of them. Of course, Houston would stand in front. No, because the schedule is a lot easier for Houston in that five game stretch. And Kansas is a lot easier for Houston in that five-game stretch, and Kansas is a lot tougher. So hypothetically, 4-1 for Kansas could equal 5-0 for Houston in that five-game stretch. For Kansas, if you go basically all but one loss over this stretch since the committee reveal came out, you're probably jumping over them just from the amount of insane wins and quad one wins and everything that you have one loss. You have one loss that you can give here if you're Kansas. And you probably got to win out the rest.

So if you lose at Texas, maybe you got to win the Big 12 tournament. You lose in the Big 12 tournament, well, but if you won your other three games, boom, you're good to go. So that's kind of how I view it. You got to win all but one game remaining if you want to have a shot at the number one overall seed, still kind of dependent on what the other teams do. But I do think Kansas does control its own destiny in the sense of if Kansas wins out, they win their final three regular season games. They win the Big 12 tournament. There's no way they don't get the number one overall seed. So that is kind of comforting that you do control your own destiny in that regard. But certainly you're rooting for a slip up from Alabama, Houston and Purdue down the stretch here. And then if you can, like I said, pretty much go two and one down the stretch, maybe go two and one in the Big 12 tournament or win the Big 12 tournament. At the very least, you're going to be a top three one seed and you're still going to have a shot at the number one overall. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks.

We'll be back tomorrow to preview the Kansas West Virginia game coming in down and field house on a Saturday. You can find me on Twitter at D Johnson rate. You can subscribe to our show wherever you get any of your podcasts or on YouTube. Give us a good review. If you're on a platform that can, or a thumbs up on YouTube,

if you can as well, certainly helpful on our end. We'll see you tomorrow here with locked on Jayhawks. You can also hear me on rock chalk sports talk later today. Bye.