Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Big 12 Tournament Path + March Melvin Council NEEDED by Kansas Jayhawks to Make Noise in Postseason?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Big 12 tournament path is set for KU basketball. We know who they're going to be going through. We know how they need to get to the Big 12 championship game. We're going to break it all down what it all means this week for KU in the Big 12 title race on Locked on Jayhawks. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here with another edition of Lockdown Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:00:34 Thanks for making it your first listen every day. Thank you, the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show. And that's why I am in my car doing this for the everydayers who are so loyal that I have to get this out to you. I had all sorts of travel troubles. There was the bomb threat at Kansas City, delayed me. Now I'm in my car waiting for AAA to show up because the car wouldn't start when I got back after the delay. So anyway, point being, that was why I'm in my car. I apologize.

Starting point is 00:00:59 But thank you to the everydayers who make it worth it to do an episode like this. Anyway, we are going to be breaking down the Big 12th tournament for KU basketball in today's episode. What it all means for KU, what the possible path is for Kansas. We're going to also get into what player or players are going to potentially decide this week for Kansas and, you know, who has the important matchups to try to get KU through. And then we'll finish up with a little update on KU Women's Basketball, KU Baseball as well on this show, which is brought to you by Mazda. We put that same drive into every detail.

Starting point is 00:01:31 wins to find the moment, putting in the work that defines you. Stay tuned for highlights in this week's moving the game forward. There's more to a Mazda because there's more to you. And my car with the battery shut down is not a Mazda. Maybe that was my first mistake. Okay, Big 12 tournament bracket is set now for KU after the weekend. So KU beats Kansas State, and that secured them being a top four seed and a double-by. And then we were awaiting the Texas Tech BYU game.

Starting point is 00:01:54 And Tech comes out and they hit like 12 or 13 threes in the first half. and all of a sudden it looks like, you know, Texas is going to win this game on the road. BYU comes back. Great finish to the game for the Cougars who get a big time victory, who still end up the 10 seed in the Big 12 tournament, oddly enough. So now because of that, you end up with a tie between Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas gets the three seed, Texas Tech gets the four seed, Iowa State gets the five seed. So the importance of this now for KU is they're in a strong.

Starting point is 00:02:28 spot where, I mean, a couple of importance. One, they got the double by. I think that's the most important part of this year. But the biggest part is this outside of that to me. If you're the four-seed, you're playing the five-seat Iowa State, most likely, assuming they're going to win, in Kansas City in a place they travel super well to in just the quarter final round just to try to win that game to set up a potential another matchup with Arizona in the semi-final round. That is an incredibly different. And your path to winning the Big 12th title becomes a gauntlet. Now, TCU is a good team.

Starting point is 00:03:04 It's 60. TCU was walloping Kansas for 35, 38 minutes of the game. So everything is, it's not like a guarantee. Like, TCU could just do that in this game. and we've seen TCU beat Kansas in a quarterfinal game before, but I would rather have the path with TCU and then potentially Houston in the first two games that I would have a path of Iowa State and Kansas City and Arizona, right?

Starting point is 00:03:33 Doesn't mean you can't lose either of those games, but I think that is a more beneficial path for Kansas. Plus, you get the night game, right, where, I don't know, I think there's a little bit of a benefit to that, getting to wait a little longer into the day. So I think all of these are good things for KU, and then obviously you hope that, you know, maybe there's an upset along the way or something like that. But this sets up a lot better for Kansas pathwise and potentially who they're having to play.

Starting point is 00:04:02 You can also just view it from a standpoint of you went two and O against Houston and TCU, albeit both games in the fieldhouse. You went two and two against Arizona and Iowa State, right? So that would be one way of looking at it. And here's the other beauty of this. Even though the TCU game isn't as, you know, TCU's, again, a good team. They're going to be a tournament team. and they have beaten some of the best teams in the country, right? They've consistently, like they beat Iowa State.

Starting point is 00:04:24 I forget if they beat Florida or almost beat Florida. They almost beat Michigan earlier in the season. They probably should have beat Kansas. Like, they have been a giant killer, so they're a very scary team. The beauty of the TCU game, though, is it's still a quad one game. So this isn't a situation where Kansas's resume is going to deplete by playing TCU as opposed to playing Iowa State. The quad one value is still the exact same there.

Starting point is 00:04:45 And I think that's a nice benefit for KU2 as you look at. And I think that brings us to this. next part of this is what is the impact of the Big 12 tournament going to be on the NCAA tournament for KU, right? I think most places you would look at right now have KU as a four seed. I have seen a couple places that have KU as a five seed. I do think if you beat TCU in the first game, you were going to, at the worst, be a four seed, in my eyes at least.

Starting point is 00:05:14 I guess if you do lose, there's a chance based on what other teams do in their conference tournaments, you could drop to the five seed, but it feels like that's the lowest point K you could be. You win that first game. I think you're at least looking at yourself as a four. The question would be, could Kansas do enough to move themselves back onto that three line this week, right? Can Kansas, you know, I don't think beating TCU gets you there. So the question kind of comes out to be, can you beat, win at least two games? And what does that do for you, right? because we're beating TCU in Houston, that would be two quad two wins if you were able to get that accomplished.

Starting point is 00:05:52 And also one of those with Houston would be a Quad 1A victory, if you can get that done. And then you'd also be, I guess as part of that, like if you're playing in the Big 12th final and you do lose that game, most likely Arizona, Texas Tech, Iowa State, even though if you're losing in that situation, it is adding another quad one high resume game to your slate. is that enough to jump KU to the three line?

Starting point is 00:06:20 It seems like there's a little bit of an opening from a handful of schools that are kind of competing for some of those last spots on the three line. So it seems definitely possible for KU. The downside of maybe not playing Iowa State here for Kansas is that maybe Iowa State's being viewed as somebody who would be on that three line, right? And if you're Kansas, now maybe not having to play them,

Starting point is 00:06:42 maybe that would have been an opportunity to, if you beat them again, to work your way onto the three line and be like, hey, we have the tiebreaker over you, so we should be a three over you potentially. So that would be one thing of note. Houston's more viewed as like a two seed. So, you know, that would be an opportunity where it would be like if you can go two and oh against them, that's a couple really nice victories up at the top for KU. So this isn't a guarantee and I'm not sitting in the room. I have no idea where they are. But like in my mind, I'm just kind of sorting it out. I'm just kind of thinking about it from like this

Starting point is 00:07:13 perspective of like, okay, zero wins, you're either four or five seed, one win in the Big 12 tournament over TCU, you're a four seed, two wins, you're a three or four seed, and if you win the whole Big 12 tournament, you're a three seed. Is there any chance in the world you can get a two seed if you win the Big 12 tournament? I mean, maybe an outside shop because the Big 12 is that good. And if you, if your path to getting there was TCU, Houston, Arizona, that would be such a good war path that maybe you would deserve consideration. there, but it does seem like with the recent skid ke was on, the losses to, and that's the thing, like, at the end of the day, the losses for Kansas that are going to hurt them here, that are

Starting point is 00:07:54 potentially going to prevent them from being, you know, a one or a two-seat or whatever, aren't going to be the blowout losses to Iowa State and Arizona. It's going to be the losses to West Virginia and UCF and Cincinnati and Arizona State, and it's not even all of them. It's like, could you have won one more of those games? Could you have won two more of those games to potentially move you up a little bit more? but we don't need to go back over that right now. Point being, if they win the Big 12th tournament, two or three seed, probably a three seed.

Starting point is 00:08:20 If they win their first two games, three or four seed. If they win one, four seed, if they don't win any four or five seed. That's kind of my map of viewing it. Again, I'm sure some bracketologists might agree or disagree there, but that's kind of how I'm looking at it coming into this week. Okay, let's talk about some players who we think are going to be huge for Kansas this week. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by the five-hour energy flavor draft with 18 different

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Starting point is 00:10:47 this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast terms and conditions apply need to hire. This is a job for Indeed sponsor jobs. Welcome back to Lockdown Jhawks. Don't forget enjoying the Everydayer club at locked on podcast.com slash everydayer. Players for KU who I think are going to be huge this week for determining KU's outcome and success if they can make a deep run in the Big 12 tournament. I think the easy answer here is, you know, just going with Darren Peterson. From a standpoint of, and maybe that's the most correct answer, if we're being honest. Like, sometimes the easy answer is the correct answer. And we just saw Darren Peterson against Kansas State look really good.

Starting point is 00:11:30 And I get it. Kansas State is not a very good team. And that is a much easier defense to dice up. And everybody was going off for KU, right? but from the fluidity, from the comfortability, from the postgame comments we heard from Darren Peterson to Bill Self, kind of about Peterson's level of play or Peterson kind of just saying like this is as good as he's felt, all of those things are great news for KU, but also makes this very interesting this week of like, what does that mean carrying forward

Starting point is 00:12:07 for KU? is that mean we're going to see like on fire Darren Peterson the rest of the way for KU? That would be great. The flip side to that is, you know, now if he's feeling as good as he ever has, potentially if you have two games in two days, three games and three days, how does that impact things? Does it set him back at all, right? Like, is that something you need to be wary of?

Starting point is 00:12:27 Do there need to be certain minute restrictions for KU with Peterson? Or is that something you need to be worried about, something you need to be wary about if you're KU, right? Like, is there some sort of. case to be made for KU to lose their first game to TCU, or I guess if the 11 seed or 14 seed upset TCU, to where Kansas was a four or five seat in the NCAA tournament, but it came at the, I guess, I don't know, expense is a negative connotation of the word, but like, at the behest of having a healthier Darren Peterson for the NCAA tournament, then it would be

Starting point is 00:13:07 to fight through and get, say, a three seed, but maybe is Darren Peterson not fully 100%. Like, that would be, I think, a really interesting question that you could kind of pose. Now, unfortunately, you don't have a guarantee one way or another. Like, okay, you could play all three games in three days and Darren Peterson can be fine. So it's not as easy just to be like, well, that's a guarantee that that would happen. Okay, you could play just one game in the one day and Peterson could not be fine off that. So, like, you try to win all the games, obviously, but I just, you know, there's an alternate universe there where that'll be the common sentiment.

Starting point is 00:13:39 If KU does lose early in the Big 12 tournament, it'll be, well, at least, you know, they have more time for Darren Peterson here, right? That'll be the last half full, I guess, approach for KU. But yeah, I mean, with how good he looked, if he continues to look like that, that is a huge boon for KU and how far they potentially go in the Big 12th tournament. But my actual pick here is Melvin Council. So when you look at TCU and Houston, again, I'm kind of assuming those to be the the teams you play, you know, what if BYU gets hot with AJ DeBonton, they'd upset Houston,

Starting point is 00:14:11 or what if TCU gets up? Like, the thing about TCU, they've beaten all the good teams, but they've lost a lot of bad teams. Could they get upset in the first round? Absolutely. Or I guess the second round of the tournament. If we just assume, though, that it goes chalk and KU gets TCU in Houston, both the Hornfrogs and the Cougars are top 25 steel rate defenses nationally. So both of them are very good at turning you over, right? And that's where Melvin, counsel, one of your, in fact, your lead ball handler becomes super important, trying to avoid those turnovers against some of those teams. You look at it, counsel has done a great job over the course of his career avoiding turnovers, too, if you're Kansas, right? So he will play a

Starting point is 00:14:52 huge role in that area, especially in those specific matchups, but then also consider this. TCU is in the 31st percentile in defending attack and kicks. So they've not been great and defending, defending basically, you know, guards driving and kicking, right? Plays where counsel drives in and kicks out to Trey White who hits a corner three. Like those types of plays for KU, right? That's something where counsel can, you know, rack up the assists. And if they start, you know, cheating too much to the shooter on the wing or whatever, so he can't kick it out, that's where counsel can hit that little floater in the lane.

Starting point is 00:15:28 So I think he becomes important there. Then when you look at field goal percentage, the area that Hughes, allows the most attempts in is the mid-range. Okay? Feel we'll attempt percentage. So the percentage of attempts a team is taking among the shot diet against you, basically coming from the mid-range. Just point being, like, Houston gives up a lot of mid-range shots, right?

Starting point is 00:15:52 TCU is in the first percentile nationally during conference play for allowing mid-range shots. So both of these teams that you could potentially play give up a ton of mid-range shots. Darren Peterson's actually first on. KU and mid-range shots, so that would go back to the idea that there's the obvious answer. But Melvin Council is second on Kansas in mid-range attempts per game. And he's been above average nationally for guards in shooting there. So he's been fine there. He's been solid.

Starting point is 00:16:21 Just another reason why I think he's important this week. Then, take a look out Brock Harding for TCU, a really good game manager point card, who had a really big game in Allen Fieldhouse for TCU. For Houston, you have Kingston Fleming's, who's going to be a top ten pick in the NBA, draft, really fast, really strong point card prospect, who is a stud point card for Houston. So then you look at the player matchups there and you say, okay, those are two good players you would potentially be going up against. And when we look back to the first matchups, the council played in both those, counsel's first meeting with Houston, 11 points,

Starting point is 00:16:54 four of ten shooting, six rebounds, four assists. So, you know, solid numbers there. But his biggest contribution, in my opinion, in that game, he held, and KU switches defensively. There were times where Marco came off the bench and guarded Fleming's or, you know, somebody else's car. But I think counsel is the primary on Fleming's, and Fleming's went just six of 18 against Kansas. So Kansas did an excellent job on Kingston Fleming's in the first meeting, and counsel gets a big, you know, applaud for that, but can you do it again? And then, in the first meeting with TCU, counsel didn't have a very efficient game, just five of 15. But the counting stats really good, 18 points, eight assists, six rebounds, and when he took over was the final five minutes

Starting point is 00:17:43 of regulation plus the five minutes in overtime. So the last 10 minutes of the game. He had 15 points over the last 10 minutes of the game. Fifteen. So two ways to look into that. One, he was the closer for KU there. If you remember Peterson didn't play in the overtime. Two, can he carry over whatever he figured out against TCU at the end into potentially the entire game, the beginning, the middle, and the end against TCU. I think all of those are there. And then, of course, there's the conversation of the Melvin Council is just the heart and the soul of Kansas. And when you're in a tournament setting like this is,

Starting point is 00:18:18 having a big leader who can help push you through in these tournament settings I think becomes very, very important. And so for all those reasons, to me, Melvin Council is the most important player for KU on this trip to the Big 12 tournament. All right, let's finish up with a little latest news on KU women's basketball, KU baseball. This is Locked on Jayhawks. This episode of the show is brought to you by Mazda moving the game forward. For those who show there's more to the score than what's on screen. You know, I was thinking back some of my favorite Big 12 championship run memories for KU.

Starting point is 00:18:57 I think a lot of people think highly of that 2018 run that obviously kept getting them hot and then they ended up going to the final four. And I was just thinking back to Sylvia D'Sosa. Doke is out for the week. I forget if it's an MCL or what. And Sylvia de Sosa, who joined it mid-semester, as a true freshman, is like balling out.

Starting point is 00:19:14 It helps them beat West Virginia. I think you'd have double-double in that game, a double-digit rebounds. He was awesome. And those are the moments that remind us where it really takes to raise the bar. It's that extra work off the court. Dialing in every detail,

Starting point is 00:19:25 giving it that extra fire, that grit and it never quit. We put that same passion in every model. Highlights make the real what it took to get there makes it count. There's more to a Mazda because there's more to you. Welcome back to Lockdown Jhawks. Don't forget enjoying the Everydayer Club to get the ad free version of the show and during our Discord channel as well, Lockdownpodcast.com slash every dayer. On tomorrow's episode, we're going to be breaking down some of the numbers for KU that have improved or gotten worse from what we're looking at the non-con into Big 12 play for Kansas, some of the biggest strengths, some of the biggest

Starting point is 00:20:01 weaknesses as they head into the postseason. We'll get you ready with game previews later this week, game recaps later this week. It's going to be a busy week. Obviously, selection Sunday coming up, so we'll be at you with that on Sunday evening as well, and then into the NCAA tournament next week for KU and company. A little update. I don't think KU Women's Basketball is going to be joining KU Men's Basketball in the Big 12 tournament. They lost 55 to 48 to Colorado in the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 tournament for the woman's side. So they finished the regular season at 19 and 13, 8 and 10 and Big 12 conference play. Seems like they're on the bubble, but the wrong side of the bubble here does seem likely that they'd be a women's NIT team,

Starting point is 00:20:44 which we just saw them win the women's NIT a couple of years ago. So obviously you hope that they do surprise here and end up making the NCAA tournament. and, you know, if there is a case for KU, I think it would have to come down to that they had some injuries, especially some key players like Jaliyah Davis, that, you know, now that she's back, they're a better team. But I think that's why they really needed that Colorado win to kind of get them to, you know, that next big one and get them to 20 and everything. So, unfortunate there, and we'll see what that means for Brandon Schneider. This felt like a very big make or break year, but he does have a big recruiting class coming in. So it'll be a very interesting decision in the KU athletic department of what kind of goes down there. But I guess, yeah, first things first, you know, potential NIT birth.

Starting point is 00:21:31 If they can't make the NCAA tournament, which looking like the wrong side of the bubble there, and then maybe you can go far and for some of the young players, maybe it's a good, you know, experience to kind of grow and get some extra game reps and get even better for next season. And then a little update on KU baseball as well, who is really kind of starting to hit their stride right now. So when last we talked, they had split a four-game series of Minnesota 2-2-2. Came back and had their home debuts at Hoagland Ballpark against St. Thomas. There's not a great team, but what do you want to do against not-great teams?

Starting point is 00:22:05 Win the series, they want it three-to-one, just kind of a stinker in the end. So overall, the record sits at 10 and 5 for KU to this point, but there's 7 and 4 on the road. That certainly looks really good for Kansas, and now they're going to have an opportunity to, you know, play in, some of these big 12 games where you're going to be playing some really good opponents. And that starts up with the TCU, or a game at TCU. So it should be a fun one. All right, that'll know for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for joining the show.

Starting point is 00:22:34 We'll see you tomorrow on LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Big 12 Tournament Path + March Melvin Council NEEDED by Kansas Jayhawks to Make Noise in Postseason?

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