Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - BRACKETOLOGY: Where is Kansas After Arizona Win? Breaking Down Jayhawks Resume and Potential Seed

Starting point is 00:00:00 KU just scored a huge win against Arizona, and it's been a run of eight straight wins with a bunch of quad one opportunities for KU. Where does that put them in the bracket? We're going to break it all down with Graham Doran of what seed could Kansas get in the NCAA tournament. You are locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here with Locked on Jayhawks. I'm joined by Graham Doran today, and you could find Graham's work all over's X Twitter feed at Graham Doran.

Starting point is 00:00:42 That's D-O-E-R-E-N for the last name. He's also the co-host of the Unnamed Bracketology Podcast. Does great work with Bracketology. And we're going to be talking KU Bracketology, where they could be, what the resume looks like. We're going to take a look at, you know, where they could go location-wise, some Big 12 talk to. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. The winner games are on for the Olympics, and there's no better way to follow them with a bet that on Fandual,

Starting point is 00:01:10 Fandual, play your game. So Graham, appreciate you joining the show here today. Obviously, good timing after the Arizona win, and you moved them up to the two line as a result of the Arizona win. So, like, I guess just big picture, like, how much does a win like that? because at the end of the day, a quad one win, if you're just looking at a spreadsheet, like the difference between beating Arizona and the difference between beating BYU at home is the same. But from a resume standpoint, how important is it to have a win like that?

Starting point is 00:01:44 I think it definitely resonates. First off, for the committee, they do have two separate sections to quad one, which I think isn't really talked about very often. They list quad one A, which is going to be your home wins against teams that are in the top. 15 of the net. And it's going to be neutral court wins against the top 25 and road wins against the top 40. Kansas has five of those now. It's not just the Arizona win, which is a needle mover, but they also went to NC State, picked up that win, beat Tennessee on the neutral court. And then, of course, I dominated Iowa State now on Fieldhouse by 21 points. That moves the needle as

Starting point is 00:02:21 well. Even if Christian and Anderson wasn't playing for Texas Tech winning on the road at Lubbock, very hard. We saw just how hard it was for Arizona. Arizona to win at KU without Darren Peterson. So still a ton of value there. I think this is a needle mover. It's not just a quad one win. Look at this as one of those wins that the committee will circle, especially if Arizona continues to be like a one or two lost team throughout the course of the year.

Starting point is 00:02:44 I think it's going to move the needle like no other win camp. You mentioned those five Quad 1A wins. So where does KU from, whether it's the Quad 1A or the Quad 1 in general, like I don't know, some of the important metrics that the committee is going to take a look at like how is k u performing in some of those areas terrific uh if you look at the kPI performance metric which is really based on the resume kansas is great there they're one of the top resumes in the country according to kpi same thing with the wins above bubble which is actually an official nca metric so i look at these things is not always completely equal like kPI will tell you a lot of

Starting point is 00:03:23 who gets big wins k u does terrific there because they get big wins above bubble tells you how can you are across the schedule you've played. And Kansas does great there too. But I would rather be strong in Wins Above Bubble than KPI because Wins Above Bubble is the NCAA's own metric. If it's something that's on the, not just the official team sheet, but something the NCAA produces, you better bet the committee's going to be paying very close attention to that. So they're terrific in both of those, not quite as strong and strength of record, but still a top 10 rating and strength of record. So I look at KU as not just having strong metrics, but you mentioned the Quad 1A. They have five Quad 1A wins. Only three teams in the country have five or more

Starting point is 00:04:06 Quad 1A wins. Duke and Illinois, the only other two. So Kansas's resume metrics and how they're performing in Quad 1, excellent, ton of attention from the selection committee for how great they're doing. The most interesting part of KU's seating to me is going to be the Darren Peterson discussion because as we know they can use as a player playing or not for or against you based on certain factors the weird thing about Kansas is that they actually some of their best resume wins have been without Darren Peterson so I don't think it's going to be a knock against them if hypothetically you know we get to the big 12th tournament and Peterson misses games and they have to question is he going to be able to play I think they're going to be able to look

Starting point is 00:04:47 at it and say okay but they've won these other games they beat Arizona without him so that's obviously a good thing for KU. But I don't know, is there in some way like a weird positive to be had about Darren Peterson missing these games from the standpoint of the committee can look at it and go, well, man, this is the resume says they're a two seed. The resume says there are three seed. And now they have Darren Peterson. He played in the full Big 12 tournament. Man, we could bump them up a little bit more. Yeah, absolutely. And I think not just for what they've done without him, I think that's a terrific point and a very important one. If Darren Peterson has questions of how whether he's actually going to play in the NCAA tournament, of course, knock on wood there. But if that were a question,

Starting point is 00:05:26 the committee might be looking at moving them down. But because they've been so fantastic, a top 10 team without him, the floor is so high for Kansas. That's the important thing when you think about their seed. Even if there's any concerns about Darren Peterson's status, the committee would look at the games without him and say, yeah, they went undefeated in Vegas without them. They'd be Arizona without them. This is a terrific team regardless of whether Darren Peterson's playing. So I think, to your point, from a selection committee standpoint, a lot of positives. Because the committee can now say, hey, they've got a top 10 resume in the country. But have you seen Darren Peterson play? If he's going to be playing more, we might be talking

Starting point is 00:06:05 about bumping this team up to even if Kansas were to go on the road and beat Iowa State and then followed up with a home win over Houston, the one seat enters the conversation. at that point. You start talking about maybe you go to Tucson with a chance to get on the one line. So I would say the committee has all the ammunition they need to say, look how Kansas has done with and without Darren Peterson because they're fantastic without him might even be better. Maybe we bump them up a little bit because we've seen what he can do when he does. Well, that's tantalizing to hear. So like what do you think, because you just detailed part of the path, like when did Iowa State beat Houston at home? What do you think the maximum?

Starting point is 00:06:46 amount of losses from here. So obviously seven games left in the regular season plus the Big 12 tournament. What do you think the maximum amount of losses they could have from here would be to potentially, at least be in the discussion to get a one seat? I think if Kansas had six losses. So one more loss. I think they're in discussion. There might be other years where you'd look at how strong the Big 12 is, how strong Kansas played out of conference.

Starting point is 00:07:11 Maybe you could say they could get to seven. But look at the teams that are on the one line. Arizona's only loss is in Lawrence. Duke has been fantastic. Obviously, beat KU head to head. Don't think that would get ignored by the committee. Yukon beat KU head to head and now in Fieldhouse. Don't think that would get ignored by the committee. And obviously, Michigan has been absolutely fantastic throughout the course of the year. So when you look at the teams in consideration for the one line, losing more than one more game, I don't think would work. But again, to even lose one game, and that means Kansas is either winning the big 12 tournament and winning, winning.

Starting point is 00:07:45 two of three against Iowa State, Houston, and Arizona without dropping any other games, or they don't win the Big 12 tournament. They go through that gauntlet of going to Ames, beating Houston, and going to Tucson without dropping any other games. Like, that would be, first off, you're talking about the Big 12 champion Jayhawks in that scenario too, which if you're the Big 12 champion in a conference with Arizona and Texas Tech and Iowa State and Houston and BYU, that would get all the respect you could possibly imagine from the committee.

Starting point is 00:08:14 So I think here you can afford to drop one more and potentially get to that one line. But in a year like this, you can't be a seven loss team. Okay, so I guess the flip side to that, if that's kind of the ceiling outcome, the most hopeful outcome, what's kind of the middle tier outcome? What's the low end outcome? I guess the middle tier, maybe they go like four and three down the stretch here. You got a couple tough teams. You got a couple tough road games here.

Starting point is 00:08:40 And then I guess the floor outcome would be, I don't know, like two and five. that feels too pessimistic, three and four, what do you think you could be looking at? And I know this is always an impossible task because you don't know what the other teams are doing around them. But theoretically, a four and three record down the stretch, theoretically a three and four record down the stretch, what range of seed do you think that would have them looking at? Well, I think what you're describing is very similar to what happened to Kansas at the end of last year, where they kind of fell apart towards the end of the season. But Kansas is starting from a much higher spot than they were.

Starting point is 00:09:14 at this time last year because they'd already started some of that fall by the time we got to the end of the first week of February. Kansas is not in that position now. Kansas is trying to get up. So I would say that even if the downside of the season happens, they finish three and four, something like that, even then you're probably looking at like the worst case scenario. If everything is an absolute disaster, a six seat is the worst case scenario. But realistically, Kansas should expect at least a four-seed NCAA tournament. And the real intriguing aspect to me is whether they can get to that two-line and stay on the two-line. Obviously, I have them there right now, but it's going to be really hard to stay there because

Starting point is 00:09:56 you're talking about some very, very difficult games and head-to-head results that will become very important. If Iowa State can split the series and they have two losses, Iowa State's got to be ahead, right, because they have two losses at that point. But if you're talking about beating Houston and beating Iowa State, how are you going to put Iowa State in Houston above Jayhawks at that point? With the amount of quality wins they would have and head-to-head results, the Jayhawks should be ahead of them.

Starting point is 00:10:20 So really, really important basketball coming up in the next week for Kansas because it will dictate a lot about where their seat is. Yep, no, I think that's an astute point. They have the head-to-heads over BYU and Tech, which maybe that helps them on the 456 line. But yeah, if you can get that head-to-head over Houston and Iowa State, too, that would certainly be nice. I want to talk a little bit more about this and some of the location stuff,

Starting point is 00:10:42 some interesting location picks for the NCAA tournament this year. So we'll get to that next on Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Indeed. Hiring isn't just about finding someone willing to take the job. It's not finding the right person with the right background who can actually help your business move forward. And if you want candidates who match what you're looking for, Indeed, sponsor jobs is the move. Because instead of hoping the right person,

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Starting point is 00:12:16 Fandwell gives you more ways to stay connected to the action. You have the curling matches, the speed skating. I love the hockey personally. Fandwell keeps the entire Olympic experience engaging from start to finish. The winter games are on, and there's no better way to follow them than with Fandual. FanDuel, play your game. Thanks again for joining us here on Lockdown, Jayhawks. Everyday or Club at Lockdownpodcast.com slash every day or to get the ad-free version of Lockdown J-Hawks. We're joined by Graham Doran on today's episode of the show. So there are two nearby locations for Kansas this year, St. Louis and Oklahoma City. And this is an interesting one because Oklahoma City has been a bit of a house of horrors for KU.

Starting point is 00:13:04 So I don't know if they can be like, hey, we don't want Oklahoma City. Like I think the Northern Iowa loss was Oklahoma City. I want to say Bucknell was in Oklahoma City. I want to say it was one of the two-fifteenths. I forget if it was the Holy Cross or the Utah State game with Roy. One of those where it was too close for comfort was in Oklahoma City. It's not gone well there. The only one I can think of at St. Louis is the Andrew Wiggins team loop around.

Starting point is 00:13:28 But I guess point being like local fans are going to want to be in one of those locations so they can go. And it's easy to take a look at the Bracket Talk. that you have where you have these teams like Iowa State and Illinois and some of these other, you know, Midwest located teams kind of in the area. So, uh, what are some of the other teams that KU kind of needs to be keeping an eye on that they need to be in front of if they want to make sure they get one of those nearby locations? I'll have to, we'll have to ask the fans if I got this one right because we'll record this. But I think the Stanford and Holy Cross games in 2002 were in St. Louis. So I don't believe that's Oklahoma City ones because, man, as you were listening,

Starting point is 00:14:09 those Oklahoma City ones, was not fun to listen to that, to be honest with you. Bad memories were brought up and all of that. But I think St. Louis is the, of course, the number one location, not just Kansas would ask for St. Louis, but that's actually the way the mileage works. If you're not the number one overall seed, they just go pure air miles. So Kansas will be going to St. Louis if they have that spot available. And that's where it gets really important as far as who's in front of who. So if Kansas ends up getting a strong two seed, they're probably headed to St. Louis. But if they end up getting the back of the two line or a three seed, they could potentially be skipped in St. Louis because Iowa State wants

Starting point is 00:14:51 to go to St. Louis. Purdue wants to go to St. Louis. Illinois looks really, really good. They want to be in St. Louis. So we'll be tough for the Jayhawks to get there. Oklahoma City would be the second option. If Oklahoma City is available, it will be because Nebraska isn't there. Nebraska actually is closer to Oklahoma City than St. Louis, which you might not think that, but that's the way it is. And who else wants to go to Oklahoma City? Houston Cougars. So Kansas will be going to either St. Louis or Oklahoma City if they can be in front of at least one of those teams from each of those pod preferences. For St. Louis, obviously, a little bit stiffer competition than Oklahoma City. And I think everybody that I can think of, unless you're a Wichita Jayhawk or an Oklahoma

Starting point is 00:15:36 Jayhawk, you'd prefer to be headed to St. Louis. I will say, if they don't get St. Louis or Oklahoma City, long trip for the Jayhawks, Greenville would be the most likely location for Kansas. Okay. So I guess if you're booking your travel plans, and I did just look it up, it was the, you had it, the Holy Cross one, which you beat Stanford, you get through. That one was in St. Louis. The Oklahoma City was the Utah State one. where KU only won by three. And then I forgot about this one in Oklahoma City to add to the Northern Iowa and the Bucknell. Oklahoma City was also the site for Catino Mobley and Rhode Island upsetting the Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:16:13 So yes, that is great news of what you're telling me that they are closer to St. Louis. So yeah, no thank you to O.K.C. there. Now, from a regional perspective, when you round things out a little bit further, I mean, that's not something that comes into play for KU at all unless they'd be on the one line, correct? Well, it could come into play. So Michigan is looking very likely, but not certain to be the number one seed in the Midwest. Obviously, Kansas would most likely want to go to the Midwest site, but potentially Houston is the south site. Not so bad either.

Starting point is 00:16:46 But if Kansas were to be in the Midwest, it would be because they're kind of towards the top of that two line. So you have to start thinking about conference competition and also regional preference. So Arizona is obviously likely to be the one seed out west. Michigan's likely to be the one seed in the Midwest. Duke's likely to be the one seed in the east. In Yukon for now, the one seed in the south, but I could easily see that being Houston down the road. So if Arizona and Houston both occupy one seeds and Kansas is the two, they're going to have to go to a different region besides one of those two. So it seems like the Midwest with Michigan could really be in play.

Starting point is 00:17:22 Okay. Okay. Or maybe even the rematch with Duke potentially. that's kind of interesting there and that's nothing that you know because especially with being in Chicago this year with the Midwest like that is a jahawk hub that's not something that sorry you know we don't want you there that's not something that they can they can have any impact on right no the overall number one seed gets to choose which region and what sub-regional they play out of but you can't choose teams to avoid okay okay good to know all right we're

Starting point is 00:17:55 going to finish up here talking a little big 12 talk with the conference. How many teams have a shot at one seed and who are the big 12 bubble teams? All those questions answered next. This is Locked on Jayhawks. I'm Kleea Butler, host of Locked on women's basketball. And this is Mazda's Women's Basketball snapshot. Celebrating the work no highlight reel can ever capture. Don Staley and South Carolina remain on top of the SEC standings after handing Tennessee

Starting point is 00:18:23 their worst defeat in program history with a final score of 9. 93 to 40. In the 43 point win, South Carolina shot 69% from the field. Tessa Johnson had a perfect shooting night, scoring 24 points, shooting four for four from the floor, including two threes and made all four of her free throws. And UCLA remains undefeated in Big Ten play, topping Michigan 69 to 66, as player of the year contender Lauren Betts put up a double double scoring 16 points, collecting 16 rebounds, and adding five. assist and three blocks. These moments are earned off the clock. Those long before the lights ever come on. The sweat, the fakes, the doubt, the scrapes, and coming back for more every time. Mazda puts the same drive into every detail. Wins define the moment. Putting in the work, that defines you. There's more to a Mazda because there's more to you. And don't forget, you can join the everyday or club where you can get the ad-free version of Lockdown Jayhawks at Lockdownpodcast.com.

Starting point is 00:19:27 every day. All right. We're joined by Graham Doran here again. Go give him a follow at Graham Doran on X or Twitter. Check out the unnamed Bracketology podcast. So the Big 12 in general, you just mentioned Houston there potentially could work themselves into it. Obviously, Iowa State maybe on the outside looking in.

Starting point is 00:19:44 We talked about kind of the opportunity for how Kansas would get there. When it is all set and done, do you, would you set the over under, I guess, if you were setting odds on it at one and a half? It's a good question. I think I would set it at one and a half, and I tend to think it's going to be over. I think Houston and Arizona are both going to end up getting one seeds. We'll be interesting, though, because Houston's going to have to do some damage on the road if they're going to get there. I just think Houston's that good.

Starting point is 00:20:14 So don't think they'll beat Kansas and Lawrence because, I mean, Monday and Lawrence, but I do think Houston being as good as they are, I think they'll eventually find their way to the one line. There's no possible way they could get three, right? with what you were talking about earlier with just the lack of losses for some of the top? It's possible, but Michigan looks so good. Duke looks so good. The odds that one of those drops off the one line is just unlikely because the Big 12 loss exchange program, right? They're going to hand each other some losses. So I would think that Michigan, Duke are going to be up there.

Starting point is 00:20:51 I think Arizona's done so much that they're likely to be up there. And it's really going to come down to who gets that fourth one seat. Okay, now the complete opposite end of this is the bubble teams in the Big 12. I guess how many teams in the Big 12 do you view to be in the bubble, whether it's the right side, whether it's in but still have work to do or teams that are on the outside looking in? Like how many teams are we talking here need some big wins down the stretch? It's a tough year for the Big 12 when it comes to bubble teams. I think UCF should get in.

Starting point is 00:21:23 Maybe not a great seed, though. I think right now they're looking at the 8-9 game, and that's probably will. where they will end up, but I think they're more likely to drop to like a 10 seed than they are to to move back up to a 7. I don't have a lot of faith in UCF's resume as the year goes on. And when I'm looking at bubble teams, like I think Oklahoma State's barely hanging in there right now, but do you trust the Cowboys to win enough down the stretch to get in? I don't think I do. I look at TCU, big opportunity against Iowa State. If TCU can knock off Iowa State, all of a sudden they get right into the middle of the bubble conversation. Baylor's,

Starting point is 00:21:58 kind of still hanging around, but they really kind of needed that win at Iowa State to get a marquee one. So I look at Baylor, they better get a big non-conference win that's coming up. We're rare to have non-conference games at this time of year, but they're doing it a little bit more now. I think there's a chance that the Big 12 could end up getting eight teams, but I tend to think it's just going to be seven. We're going to have to see some big wins from some teams like TCU or Baylor or Oklahoma State if we're going to get an eight team in. See, now you scare me because the Wednesday game of KU at Oklahoma State, a place that typically Bill Self has struggled a little bit in. And now I'm just thinking they're going to be desperate to make the tournament.

Starting point is 00:22:38 And that could be their way of doing it. So thank you for adding a little nerves to me for that game there. So you said seven or eight, do you think eight would be the maximum if everything went right? I mean, it's possible that you could get more than that if, let's say, Baylor and TCU both pull-up upset. it's Oklahoma State, it's a big road win. Oklahoma State has a roadwin problem in general, let alone big road wins. No team has made the NCAA tournament without at least two true road wins. So far, they only have one.

Starting point is 00:23:09 So Oklahoma State really needs to start picking it up on the road if they want to make the tournament. But I look at those teams, and if TCU doesn't beat Iowa State tonight, I tend to think we're looking more like a seven-bit league. I think the idea of even getting nine is just totally out of the question at that point. he's graham dorin i'll let you do it here where can you find all your work uh graham dorin on twitter or x and also again the unnamed brackatology podcast on youtube all right that's graham dorin great work we're going to try to have him on more as we get closer to the tournament time as long as that's cool with graham so uh that'll do it for today's episode of the show i'm derrick johnson he's graham dorin and you can find our show anywhere

Starting point is 00:23:49 you get your podcast including on our youtube page we'll see you next time for another edition of locked on j hawks Pell.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - BRACKETOLOGY: Where is Kansas After Arizona Win? Breaking Down Jayhawks Resume and Potential Seed

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