Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Breaking Down Kansas Jayhawks Football Opening the 2024 Season vs Lindenwood Lions
Episode Date: August 29, 2024Preview of Kansas Jayhawks football vs Lindenwood Lions in each team's 2024 season-opener, being played in Kansas City, KS at Children's Mercy Park on a Thursday night. What to expect from Lance Leipo...ld and KU in this game. Matchups of the game, player matchups and Hawks to Soar like Luke Grimm, DJ Withers, Devin Neal, Jalon Daniels, Daniel Hishaw, and more.For your next listen, check out the Locked On College Football podcast! From NIL deals to never ending conference realignment rumors, Spencer McLaughlin gets you ready for an exciting season on the gridiron! Click HERE to listen now. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your Team. Every Day.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.5-Hour EnergyGo to 5hourenergy.com and use promo code LOCKEDONCFB to receive 20% off your order. This offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions. The code is not good on subscription orders. Go to 5hourenergy.com today!Ultimate GMUltimate College Football HC is a brand-new mobile game that is completely free, has no ads and100% playable offline. Use the promo code LOCKEDONCFB, all caps, inside the game store to receive a free boost to your program. Begin your coaching legacy today!Factor MealsHead to FACTORMEALS.com/lockedoncollege50 and use code lockedoncollege50 to get 50% off your first box PLUS 20% off your next month while your subscription is active!eBay MotorsFrom brakes to exhaust kits and beyond, eBay Motors has over 122 million parts to keep your ride-or-die alive. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to bring home that big win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.FanDuelNow through September 22nd, ALL FanDuel customers can bet FIVE DOLLARS and get a THREE WEEK free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Visit FANDUEL.COM/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)
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On today's Locked on Jayhawks, KU football is back, football season's back.
We preview the KU Lindenwood game, why the Jayhawks should dominate on Thursday night.
You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks.
Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.
I'm Derek Johnson.
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Thank you to the everydayers catching each and every show.
And on today's episode, we're previewing Kansas Lindenwood.
We're going to get into the matchup. We'll get to our matchups of the game,
play your matchups to watch Hawks to soar.
And we're going to pick a prop based on some fan duel odds.
So thank you for tuning into the show. Of course,
we'll have a postcast after the game that you can catch either Thursday night
or Friday morning, whenever you get around to it.
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today. So Kansas takes on Lindenwood.
This is a game that Kansas comes in as a heavy, heavy favorite.
The line opened up at like 43.5 on FanDuel,
and it's already moved to 44.5, at least at time of recording.
By the time you listen to this, watch this,
by the time it gets to game time and it kicks off,
maybe it ends up even being more than that.
Obviously, some of the early money coming in on Kansas there.
And honestly, I would be leaning toward taking Kansas,
minus the points, even with that many in this game,
which I'll get to reasons why throughout the show today.
So tune in, obviously.
But this is the first ever matchup between these two teams. This is also the first ever matchup against an FBS opponent for Lindenwood.
This is a Lindenwood program that went from NAIA football,
moved up, kept moving up,
eventually moved up to the FCS last season.
This is their second year in the FCS
and now this is their first FBS opponent.
They went three and seven last year in the FCS
in kind of a transition period for them.
I think all KU fans would now be comfortable with KU running up the score because this is
David Beatty's alma mater. But in all seriousness, this is one that Kansas should just dominate.
And it's really about a little bit of everything. When you look at some of these past, you know, FCS opponents that KU has played,
I don't know who would be considered worse between like this one or Rhode
Island, but from whatever that was like 2016, 2015, 2017,
it's in the discussion.
And Kansas is at a place as a program where they're better than they were in
any of those past years.
And Kansas has more depth.
A lot of the players who are going to be playing, if you're blowing them out in the third quarter, the fourth quarter,
maybe they're young players, but they're very talented.
They're three stars.
They're four stars.
They're guys who are going to be the next wave of dudes in Lawrence.
And that's going to set you up that you should be able to dominate this football game.
As Brian Borland said last week at a press conference,
this game is about Kansas.
This is me kind of paraphrasing.
It's not as much about the opponent.
I think the way he said it is the game is about us.
Like it's about us.
And what he basically meant by that is like,
if we take care of business,
if we do what we need to do,
we're going to win this game,
right?
Like our A game is going to be better than their
a game our a game you know kusa game is going to be better than lyndon woods or you know 100
percent game like kuc game might be able to win this game obviously you don't go into the game
and brian borland's not going to stand on a chair and be like hey guys c game or better let's do it
right that's not gonna happen but point being, Kansas should be able to dominate.
And as long as they don't do a lot of stupid things,
you're going to be able to blow out your opponent.
Lindenwood ranks outside the top 100 FCS teams,
according to Bill Connolly's preseason ESPN SP+.
This is not a top 100 FCS team, at least according to one metric on paper.
Bill Connolly, actually, same guy, put together a list of the ESPN SP Plus rankings with all teams from FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III, and NAI schools.
Interestingly enough, Wisconsin Whitewater, who Lance Leipold used to coach and won a bunch of championships there,
Wisconsin Whitewater is ranked higher by about 30 spots.
They're at 251.
Lindenwood's at 280.
So when you add together all the FBS, FCS, all these other schools,
if you view Kansas as a top 25 opponent, it's a top 25 team against a team who's rated 280.
If we view that from a basketball,
basketball is even different because like football,
there is the physical element.
Basketball, it's like you get too physical.
You're going to, or like a team could just get hot from three.
But theoretically, if Kansas was playing a team in basketball,
who's ranked 280th, you'd be like, okay,
the point spread is like 35 points.
You know, there are actually three Division III schools.
There's handfuls of Division II schools that are ahead of Lindenwood,
and there's almost an NAIA school.
So point being, Kansas is a much better team.
This should be domination.
Kansas shouldn't have to, nor should they want to,
have to show off your full playbook in this game,
especially with Illinois lurking next, 9-win UNLV after that,
tough Big 12 opener against West Virginia on the road after that,
Big 12 play after that.
You don't want to have to show everything on film.
Now, should you maybe show a few things that can be on film
that can make the opposition have to worry about it,
spend extra time in scouting?
Yeah, that makes sense. Maybe you just want about it, spend extra time in scouting. Yeah,
that makes sense. Maybe you just want to work on a few concepts in game, but you're not going to
like overly do it. That makes sense. But I know like earlier this week, there was a comment from
Lance Leipold talking about that they're going to do everything in their power to win this game.
And I think that was a good way of wording it from Lance Leipold in that the idea that they're going to give a full playbook is not real.
And I understand why Lance Leipold would say that.
And again, I think he phrased it in a way where he's saying, like, we're going to give our all to win this game was kind of the way he phrased it, which is like, that's true.
They're going to try 100%.
But it's not going to be a full playbook.
And yes, again, he's not going to come out there and say that. Like if,
if somebody in the media asks him point blank,
like are you going to use all your plays? Are you going to have a full playbook?
He might say yes, but that's coach speak stuff.
That's not trying to give bulletin board material to the opposition.
That's trying to keep the opposition on their toes and preparing for
everything. Right. There are reasons why he would say it like that.
Like I have no problem with why he would say it like that but from my perspective
I'm telling you it's not going to be a full playbook and the reason I point out to that is
just one look at like every other team is going to be playing an FCS team that they should blow out
probably not going to be a full playbook now if you're Colorado playing North Dakota State
you're Oklahoma State playing South Dakota State probably will be a full playbook because those
are going to be tough games they're like nine and a half point favorites in each. But
look back to two years ago, right? Look back to the game against Tennessee Tech.
How many times did Kansas run like the option, triple option in that game?
There was one off the top of my head. It might've been twice. Then fast forward to the next two
weeks against West Virginia and Houston in 2022. How many times did they run option?
It was like half the plays.
Maybe not that much, like a quarter of the plays.
I don't know.
You look back to last year.
How adventurous did they get with the playbook?
How adventurous did they get with formations and motions?
There's a few things they sprinkled in.
For the most part, it was just, hey, wide zone, halfback dive, basic plays.
We're just going to run it down your throat.
You can't stop us because we're just better than you.
And that's what I expect in this game.
You should just be better than them.
You should just be able to run base plays and dominate.
But I think without a doubt, whether Kansas wins this game by 70,
whether they win by 40, whether the starters play for a quarter,
a half, three quarters, it's just exciting to have KU football back.
It's exciting to have football back in general.
It's exciting to see some of these guys, right?
Whether it's Jalen Daniels, Devin Neal, Kobe Bryant, Melo Dotson,
some of these guys that you're seeing for the last time this year,
or I guess in Jalen's case could be the last time.
And in a situation where, you know, if you went back to 2020,
end of the 2020 season, you don't even talk about like January of
2021 coming off an 0-9 season off of COVID if you went back and told yourself just wait man
in three and a half years from now you're going to be having conversations with your friends
co-workers whatever it is about that hey Big 12's wide open kansas could win it kansas could make the
college football playoff and a lot of the guys who are having their last go around this year
are as big of a reason as anything is why they've uplifted this program they've brought it to this
point where if you would have said that to yourself three and a half years ago
you would have sounded like a crazy person you would have been the ultimate optimist that would have just been saying things
just to say them to try to say something hopeful.
But now it's true.
And three and a half years later, Kansas has a chance to do those things.
And this is the start of that.
Even if it's not the biggest opponent, it is the start of that.
And you get to see these players.
You don't know how long, how many more games you're going to get to see each and every one of them.
Enjoy what you can.
Let's get to our matchups of the game.
Players to watch Hawks,
all that on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks.
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Okay, we're going to get to our matchups of the game.
We'll do first, second, third, fourth down.
Then we'll get to our player matchups.
Hawks to Soar, players we think can set up to have a big game.
And then we'll add a new segment this year on our game previews,
which is a pick a prop with FanDuel.
Okay, matchups of the game.
First down is special teams.
Lindenwood actually, even though they weren't a great team last season
and aren't expected to be by some of the metrics coming into this year,
they did rank 19th on special teams by pro football focus
among FCS teams a season ago.
And I think that's interesting because the first game of the season,
maybe you're more prone to special teams mistakes.
And so also you look at it where Kansasansas is heavy favorite over 40 point favorite what is
one way that the opposition could make you sweat it out a little bit earlier or make things closer
than it possibly could be it would be a special teams um sway like they have a kick return for a
touchdown you muff a punt right that could be a 14 point swing and all of a sudden instead of it being 28 to 7 at
halftime it's I don't know 21 to 14 or something like that right where it's a much different game
or you just feel like things are a little bit tight um and for Kansas they had a good first
half of the season last year on special teams the back half of the season you had too many mistakes
all the blocked ps against Oklahoma State,
some missed field goals in the second half after being
more perfect in the first half.
The K-State game, obviously,
you think of.
At the end of the day, you look at ESPN and SP+,
they ended up about nationally average
on special teams in terms of where they were.
So you're looking for improvement this year, and this is
a good opportunity to show that against a team who actually
was pretty good at it a season ago.
Plus, you've got certain battles going on.
Obviously, Tabor Island won the kicker battle,
but are we still going to see Charlie Weinreich and or Owen Peeper-Gerdes
come into a field goal or a PAT situation and see what they can do?
It seems like Damon Greaves has settled in at the punter,
but what about the return spots?
What does that look like?
So I think that's going to be an interesting matchup in this game.
Second down, KU figuring out their offensive line machinations in game
and just road grading Lindenwood's defensive line.
This is partially one of those things where it's like,
just worry about yourself, and it's also just, you know,
dominating the opponent.
So KU starting offensive line.
They're starting Bryce Cable to a left tackle,
Logan Brown at right tackle
Michael Ford at left guard,
Kobe Baines at right guard and then Bryce Foster at the center position.
But like, they're going to rotate other linemen in,
like Daryl Simmons is going to play Shane Baumgartner,
probably going to play Nolan Gortyka, probably going to play.
And then you'll have other linemen play too,
as the game goes on and you're blowing out the opponent and everything.
But Kansas kind of settled on, it seemed like, that rotation of linemen a little bit later in the game,
at least as far as where the tackles are positioned with that kind of switch happening.
So what happens if it's just not working well and they decide to switch back
or they decide to switch somebody else in some other position?
It's possible. I'm not expecting it to happen. But but yeah just figuring out what's your best situation for different plays are
and you know what everybody is best at and seeing that on the field and seeing if Bryce Foster and
Logan Brown can kind of raise the ceiling of this position unit and I look at last year
Austin Peay ran for 270 yards on Lindenwood.
Now Austin P was a, I think they were a playoff team.
Their, their coach got parlayed that into a job at a UTEP.
So they were a good team, but like,
if you're taking Austin P from last year, Kansas, this year,
you're obviously taking Kansas, especially the run game,
four teams of the 10 that they played.
So 40% of the time notched over 200 yards rushing on this defense on the ground.
You should be able to road grade them.
300 yards plus rushing for KU is kind of my expectation in this one
and a big reason why I think the offensive line should be able to road grade them.
Third down, KU pass rush versus the Lindenwood offensive line.
Lindenwood was not good in pass blocking a season ago.
They gave up five or more sacks on three occasions, which is a lot.
They gave up a high of seven sacks in a game last season,
and they only kept the QB without a sack twice.
So in eight of their 10 games, they gave up at least a sack.
They gave up three or more sacks in six of their 10 games.
So more than half the time, more often than not, they were giving up three or more sacks in six of their 10 games. So more than half the time, more often than not, they were giving up three or more sacks
in a game.
And that was without playing an FPS opponent.
Well, enter KU, who there were some questions about who is going to provide the pass rush
after losing Austin Booker.
And those things still exist coming into the season.
But it feels like, at least on paper, or at least the feeling coming into the season is that KU has a bunch of
a group of hungry pass rushers that have potential and have ceiling to make this thing work whether
that's Dean Miller, DJ Warner, Dak Brinkley, By Jobe, the strong defensive ends and Jeremy
Robinson, Dylan Woodkey, some good defensive tackles that they're going to be able to make
this thing work that they're going to be able to have the requisite pass rush to get it done. And as much as
if the offensive line and defensive line dominates this game, we're going to point to that and say,
good, they should, but that doesn't necessarily mean you'll dominate against Illinois and West
Virginia and some of these other teams. It has been a bit of a precursor the past couple of years.
Kyron Johnson had himself a good game against South Dakota in 2021
in Lance Leipold's first year.
Lonnie Phelps had four TFLs, three sacks two years ago.
Austin Booker, I think, had a sack and had maybe a couple quarterback hits.
I don't remember if he had the sack or not, but a couple quarterback hits
and had a couple of real nice pass rush
moves or quick get offs the line that it was noticeable.
Point being,
if you,
if one of these players has three sacks in this game,
it doesn't guarantee that they're going to have three sacks again,
all season long.
But what it does tell me is that see in a real game situation,
in a real game setting,
they're ready to go and they have juice.
So how much it
translates to the games the rest of the season you don't totally know but it does at least give
you an indication that you're on the right path and so i i am very curious who those end up being
and if ku can can kind of dominate their uh fourth down confident not cocky um ku should be confident
this doesn't just apply for this game where you're over a 40-point
favorite this season. You've accomplished a lot. You've brought this program to a much, much,
much, much, I could say that a million times better place from where it was. At the same
point in time, there's that line. You don't want to overlook an opponent. You don't want to overlook
anybody, even this one. So just take care of business, focus on you, do your job every play,
and you'll find yourself pretty high up on the scoreboard at the end of the game
in what could be a 40, 50, 60-point victory if you're KU.
Let's finish up.
Players to watch.
Hawks to soar.
Pick a prop.
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Finishing up with this episode of Locked on Jayhawks
with our player matchups, our
Hawks and Soar pick-up prop. Don't forget
we're going to have a post
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Okay, our player matchup to watch. We're going to go with Luke Grimm, KU receiver,
versus Talon Blaylock. So Talon Blaylock is a
defensive back for Lindenwood.
He's a former transfer from Sam Houston State, which used to
be an FCS team for a while,
now is an FBS team in their second year of the FBS.
He plays safety, he plays some slot, and he plays some hybrid stuff for Lindenwood.
At least he did last year, so I'm kind of assuming he's going to do the same this year.
He had the fifth most tackles on the team last season.
He was one of the better defenders on the team.
He's a playmaking safety.
He had three interceptions last year, which led the team.
So there's some good things about him. But if you look into his pro football focus coverage grades, he was targeted
31 times last year. On those 31, he allowed a 71% completion rate. That's not great. He allowed over
15 yards per catch. That's not great. And he allowed five touchdowns and had three penalties.
Neither one of those is that great um but because
the three interceptions very much boom or bust right so he can make a swing play his way or he
might give up a big one the other way so for Kansas to win this matchup especially if he's in
the slot you think of him on Luke Grimm a lot avoid the pick to him to where he can feast maybe
have a double move maybe have some plays where he can
play off his aggressiveness and work that into an advantage for you. And if you don't give him
the chance to feast, then you should be able to feast and make it famine for them. Hawks to soar
for KU on offense. We're going to go Devin Neal and Daniel Hyshaw. I don't know how many times
Devin Neal is going to carry the ball in the FCS game. I mean, we've seen past FCS games where Devin Neal's had single-digit carries.
I want to say in the Tennessee Tech game, didn't he have like four carries or something like that?
And he's actually had a touchdown on his first carry the last two years on the first carry of the season against FCS opponents.
So we'll see if he can do that again in this one.
But I went back and looked at Jeff Grimes' past games against FCS opponents. Now, I don't know how much of the player usage is based on the running backs coach
versus the offensive coordinator versus the head coach versus all three of them
or something like that.
Maybe it's different in each college.
But from what you can see with Jeff Grimes, from really the last handful of games
he played against FCS opponents, his lead back wasn't getting 20 carries
or something like that, but they were getting 10, 12, 14 carries in the game, which would certainly be more than
Devin Neal's kind of gotten in the last couple of FCS games, which means if Devin Neal gets 10,
12 carries in this game, he can legitimately have 150, 200 yards rushing. At the very least,
you kind of expect a hundred. So I do wonder if the prop on this, because as of right now,
as I'm recording on Thursday night, the props are not up, which I'd imagine because it's week one of the season.
That's just taking longer to get into with making sure everybody's healthy and who's going to be playing and what the props should be.
So you can probably look at FanDuel and they're up by now.
Maybe Devin Neals would be lower because they're not expecting him to have that many carries.
Maybe it's it's one where he is really high because they are expecting him
to just dominate against an FCS opponent.
I don't totally know, but I do think he's set up to have the big game.
And then if he doesn't have as many carries, or even if he does have 10 to 12,
there's still going to be a lot more other ones to have.
That means probably big games for Daniel Hyshaw and some of the other running backs.
I'm excited to see Harry Stewart and Savion Morrison too.
Defense, Hawks to Soar.
We're going to go with DJ Withers. Been hearing about him all camp long that he's having a really good camp. He's
been a guy who seemingly has progressed each and every year. Now you're playing a worse offensive
line than you've been going up against in camp, right? At least you would hope. Go out there and
dominate the game, right? Go out there and get a sack. It's harder for interior guys to get sacks,
but that'd be a pretty big deal if he does.
And you look at some of the, you know, we talked about it on past shows.
Thank you to the everydayers tuning into this.
But the Lindenwood pass blocking and run blocking grades were not great
a season ago.
They didn't have a lot of individuals get above 60 in either run blocking
or pass blocking a season ago.
He should be able to dominate.
Okay, pick a prop.
So we're going to – I love ice cream.
So we're going to do scoops and sprinkles. So scoop is our big one. And then the sprinkle is
one that, you know, maybe a little less invested in, but maybe has a little bit more outlandish
odds possibly. So again, the props are not out as of when I'm recording. I'm sure they will be out
closer to kickoff here. Just with this one kind of being the exception so this is me just
basing it on the spread right now the over under in the game is 59 and a half the spread is 44 and
a half what that tells you is that basically fanduel is is saying the game score should be
somewhere around uh oh gosh what would that be minus 44 a half. So you're looking at like 52 to seven, right? I mean,
that'd be covering 45 points. That'd get you to 59 points. So if you're looking at 52 to seven,
that means the over under for Kansas points would be like basically 52. I'll go over that.
And if I can even find an alt line where it's like 55, maybe even 60, I might be interested in that.
But let's just say for the scoop here,
going over on the Kansas points.
And maybe if that's not even available,
you just take the over on the game.
So again, as I said,
I went back and looked at Jeff Grimes' past performances in FCS games.
Again, this isn't all on the offensive coordinator,
but 2023 Baylor was an anomaly.
That was just not a good offense.
Three previous Jeff Grimes offenses against their
opponents 2022 Baylor scored 69 2021 Baylor scored 60 and 2020 BYU also scored 66 points
so they were able to continue piling on the score and maybe that happens for Kansas in a game where
you are clearly the better team so that's my my pick-up prop, Kansas over on points.
And then for the scoop, for the sprinkle, we're going to go with Daniel Hyshaw, two touchdowns.
I'm open to if this is like plus 200 on like one touchdown, I would just take that.
But I'm assuming one touchdown is going to be like plus 120, 140, somewhere in that.
I think two touchdowns, you'll be able to get good odds.
I think the fact that he's a power running back will be in a lot,
especially if Devin Neal gets limited carries.
He'll have an opportunity.
Also, I'd be interested in, if it's there,
Harry Stewart to get a touchdown in this game.
So those are the props we're looking at.
All right, that'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks.
We'll be back later tonight slash Friday morning for a post-game recap
of whatever happens
between Kansas and Lindenwood.
When we're finally here, football's back.
KU football's back.
Hope if you're going to the game, you have a great time.
You stay safe.
If you're watching at home, enjoy that too.
And we'll see you next time with LOJ.