Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CRITICAL: Jalon Daniels Faces ELITE Pass Defense as Kansas BATTLES Arizona for Bowl Game Eligibility

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's Kansas and Arizona. Noah Fafita versus Jalen Daniels, both teams battling for bowl eligibility. Can Kansas get it done? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:25 What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first list. and every day. And thank you to the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And on today's edition, we preview Kansas against Arizona. We get into the Arizona Wildcats scouting report and we get into our matchups of

Starting point is 00:00:48 the game that could certainly determine this one for KU. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook where you can get the Jayhawks, a little under a touchdown right now. new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the Fandual app today. So Kansas takes on Arizona Saturday afternoon game and it's on the road for KU. And both these teams are going for bull eligibility in this one. Arizona comes in at five and three.

Starting point is 00:01:16 Kansas comes in at five and four. And it's funny because we always talk about how, you know, in the preseason, there are some games you'll look at and say, okay, this one, I don't know, I don't know how tough. of an opponent that's going to be versus other games where you look at and say, oh, that's going to be a really tough opponent. And then it doesn't end up being that way. Like we thought Kansas State was going to be toward the top of the Big 12. Well, ended up K1KU played him and they were three and four. Obviously, it didn't end up mattering. But the Arizona game, everybody was

Starting point is 00:01:43 saying, oh, Arizona's going to be one of KU's easier opponents and it's a road game, not a bad draw. Well, all of a sudden, Arizona's playing really good football. They're five and three, and they look like a pretty good football team. So it becomes a little more difficult and you never know how it's going to work out. It is interesting, though, as Kansas tries to get to bowl eligibility and tries to kind of save this season in a certain way, it's not going to be easy for KU to do it. You look at these final three games for KU, you get Utah on the finale, you get at Iowa State, and you have this game at Arizona. And what is the best chance for Kansas to get to bowl eligibility? Is it this game? Is it the Iowa State game? Is it the Utah game?

Starting point is 00:02:20 Is it the Utah game because it's at home? I think the case is for each and any of those games would be, you would say, okay, I think Arizona is the worst of those three teams. You know, Iowa State beat them by multiple scores. So you would just say, and you figure Utah is the best of the bunch. So therefore, Arizona's the easiest game. The argument for the Iowa State one is that you've had success against Iowa State of late. You've beaten Iowa State three consecutive times, and you seem to do pretty well in that matchup. The argument for the Utah game is that it is a home game, as opposed to these other two being road games. And even though Utah is a really good team, that game's going to be 11 a.m.

Starting point is 00:02:59 on Black Friday, week of Thanksgiving, they're going to be traveling on the road. And it's an 11 a.m. game, which means for Utah, it's a 9 a.m. game for their body clocks, could you come out and, I don't know, kind of stun them in a certain way on Thanksgiving week? I think that'd be the argument for all three games. The argument against all three games, I think for the Utah game would just be Utah's the best team. and you're probably going to be like a 10-digit or 10-point underdog. Just kind of depends how you do these next couple weeks, but are you going to be 7, 10, 14, like what's going to be the spread?

Starting point is 00:03:29 I don't know, but that'll probably be the biggest spread that you're going to face. When you look at the Iowa State one, they're going to be chomping at the bit to beat to beat you after they've lost three straight times. And it is senior day for them. And then you look at the Arizona one and you would say, okay, yeah, well, Arizona lost to Iowa State by multiple scores. But the way Arizona states or the way Arizona is playing right now compared to the way Iowa State's playing right now. I don't know. It feels like Arizona's playing better ball at this point in time. And it feels like with Arizona, they come into this game off like it's close losses,

Starting point is 00:04:02 it's beating opponents. They just blasted Colorado. I don't know. I almost would argue that KU's most winnable game, like the highest percentage I would give them to win any of these games, just me specifically. I think I would actually go with the at Iowa State game over this one specifically for for the best chance. But that's not a great place to be if that's KU's best chance to get bowl eligibility. And so I think you get to a certain point where you say, like, this one becomes super important for KU from the standpoint of obviously trying to get to bowl eligibility. The longer it lasts and the longer that is a conversation, you know, you lose these next two games and then you're putting all the pressure on the final Utah game. You don't want to be there. But the

Starting point is 00:04:42 longer it lasts where you haven't cleared bowl eligibility, the more difficult it becomes because you're almost imposing, like self-imposed, I don't know, pressures onto yourself by the longer you can't accomplish it. Whereas if you can win this one and get to bowl eligibility, to a certain standpoint, you're playing with house money in those last two games where you can play a little bit more free and loose. And so to that standpoint, you know, each game becomes more important as you go. This is such a vital game for KU to where, yes, the goal is to be bowl eligible. But Um, this is your, you're really one opportunity to do something more than just get to six wins, but also it makes it increasingly harder, not just because you have one less opportunity, but also the extra pressures you would add if you do end up losing this game. Obviously, Arizona is trying to get to bowl eligibility, too.

Starting point is 00:05:35 They didn't make a bowl last year, so it's going to be meaningful for them, and they're sitting at five and three. The line is certainly really jumping in Arizona's favor, and betters really are starting to kind of pick up seemingly that, you know, wildcats. I think Kansas this year is just three and six against the spread so far this season, so they have not been a good team against the spread. I don't know, maybe that's something that kind of comes back down to earth in this game and down the final stretch for KU, but it almost feels like KU is getting overly respected

Starting point is 00:06:02 by Vegas right now. Obviously, they came into the year with an over, underwind total of seven and a half. They could be a surprise at this point if they didn't end up with the under on that one, but certainly something to keep an eye on with the betting spread that opened around three and a half and is now closer to six at this point in time. It's getting into specifically what Arizona brings to the table and our matchups that are going to determine this game. This is locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of LOJ is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. College basketball season's back, along with the NBA, NHL's going on, and obviously football's still going.

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Starting point is 00:07:03 Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So head over to FanDuel.com, sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA and the Lockdown Podcast Network. Thanks for joining us on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast. including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. So what do the Arizona Wildcats bring to the table as KU tries to get bull eligibility? Well, Arizona's 5 and 3 on the air.

Starting point is 00:07:36 They're 2 and 3 in the Big 12. Technically 3 and 3 because they beat K State. It counted as a non-con game. It's very stupid. Anyway, they most recently dominated Colorado. That's a bad Colorado team, 52 to 17. That was on the road after they almost won at Houston the week before that. And they nearly beat an undefeated at this point, BYU team.

Starting point is 00:07:55 now there are two common opponents so far that both teams have played Arizona and Kansas both played Oklahoma State Kansas beat Oklahoma State 3821 last week Arizona beat Oklahoma State handedly as well actually by more than Kansas did 41 to 13 and then the other common opponent is Kansas State Kansas got crushed Arizona beat them and obviously Arizona got them at a better time of the year before they had kind of figured things out at least a little bit more but you know both common opponents, Arizona had a better result than Kansas did. And that certainly draws your eye, plus

Starting point is 00:08:27 they're playing at home. Their coach is Brent Brennan. He was formerly at San Jose State, had really good success there, took over a tough job in year one at Arizona with the way their previous coach and Jetfish left to Washington and left kind of the cupboards bear. And it didn't go super great in year one, despite the fact they had, you know, a top 10 pick in Tet McMillan. But he's kind of gotten them back to where they're expecting to be here in year two. And now they're ranked 31st on ESPN SP Plus, where they have the number 36 offense, number 35 defense. Special teams only ranked 109th, though. And out of comparison, KU now on SP Plus is 52nd.

Starting point is 00:09:03 They have the number 34 offense, number 76 defense, and number eight special teams. How about that for Kansas even after giving up that touchdown to K State there? ESPNFPI has it a little bit closer. It has Arizona at 45th and Kansas at 51st. You look at some of the personnel for Arizona. They have good QB play. Noah Fafita is certainly a top half of the league quarterback in the Big 12, probably top five in the Big 12. I mean, you have solid quarterbacks all throughout. So I'd have to really think about it and rank it. But point being, he is a good quarterback. That's kind of what matters to your bottom line. They have two running backs who are in terms of total rushing yards. Their top two and total rushing yards are both averaging over six yards. Ismail Madi has 530 rushing yards, only 80 carries. So they're runners have been very efficient this year, and they really spread it out to the receivers. This is a good receiving core. They don't have maybe that NFL superstar and Ted McMillan

Starting point is 00:10:00 anymore, but it's just a lot of like very solid guys, guys who can make you miss. Javan Watley is leading the team with 404 receiving yards. They have five different players with 249 or more receiving yards. So they really spread it out. They've got just a very solid group overall. And obviously, you know, whether they're solid or below average or whatever, it probably doesn't really matter because KU's secondary has struggled versus all of them. Oklahoma State didn't have much of a passing attack coming in and they struggled against Oklahoma State.

Starting point is 00:10:32 So, you know, Arizona is probably going to find some success in the air, I think would be kind of a good bet coming in. On the offensive line, pro football focus, basically they're viewed as like, I guess I would say an above average unit overall. They're number 53 in pass blocking, number 62 and run blocking. So kind of average, slightly above average in both, that makes you an average to above average unit overall. So, you know, that's totally fine. Special team has been a bit of a struggle for them. We mentioned in those rankings. Their kicker is, their main kickers 12 of 18 on field goals.

Starting point is 00:11:01 He does have a cannon, though. He made a 57-yard field goal. He's four kicks of 40 or more yards, two of 50 or more yards, so great leg strength, but not great accuracy. And then you look at the defense for Arizona. They are 45th nationally in sack rate. So, you know, again, above average there. they've got two linebackers who have three plus sacks or three sacks. No one else has more than one, but they've had them from a lot of different players. So they don't necessarily have a, I guess we're going to make an Arizona reference, like a Teddy Bruske, who, you know, is racking up a bunch of sacks on the defensive line for them. But it kind of comes from all over, like there's certain scheme challenges of what they're going to do.

Starting point is 00:11:40 It's less like a David Bailey type situation where, you know, for Texas Tech, David Bailey wrecked the game along with really their whole defensive line. Um, not to say, they don't have good players like they do, but it's, it's the players and the scheme as opposed to just like a dominant force of a player you can't block, which means, I think for the KU offense aligned, this is almost more of a mental challenge than it is a physical challenge. It is both, but you know, you got to be on your mentals, I think in this game against their scheme.

Starting point is 00:12:08 They're solid tackling team, top 45 there on PFF. And I think the biggest strength of their defense is the secondary. They have the number three pass cover. grade on pro football focus. We'll get into some more of their really impressive past defense numbers in a second here. Quarterback deep dive for Arizona. Noah Fafita was riding high. He was an All-Pact 12 quarterback in 2023. Arizona wins double-digit games that beat Oklahoma in the Allomobile. And then last year just fell apart. Again, new coach. You lose a lot of players. And it just fell off for him in a tougher situation. He's not quite all the way back to the

Starting point is 00:12:44 stats. He put up in 2023, but he certainly is. to being a very solid quarterback, 65% completion rate, over 2,000 passing yards on 8 yards per attempt, all those are solid, 24 total touchdowns of four interceptions. That's excellent there. He's got a 72.8 QBR that's top 30 nationally. And over the last two games, that numbers at like 90. So he is coming in on a heater into this game. He can run the ball. It's not like the main part of his game. Like if you take out the sack yards, he has over 200 rushing. rushing yards. If you add the sack yards, he has under 100 rushing yards. So again, he's not Lamar Jackson necessarily, but like he can run if you give him a lane. He has three rushing

Starting point is 00:13:26 touchdowns as well. You look at some of the in-depth numbers. He's been about the same on play action versus non-play action. So that's not necessarily something where there's a big split of like, you got to watch out for this over that. It's been about the same there. He has been worse against the Blitz. We'll get to more on that later. And this one's not so great to look at because is KU has really struggled. I think the Brandon Swordsby attack, I think of Avery Johnson. When quarterbacks have a heavy dosage of throwing over the middle, that has given the KU defense struggles in the passing game.

Starting point is 00:13:58 And here comes another quarterback who has a heavy dosage of throws over the middle. 57% of Fafita's passing attempts are in the middle third of the field. And again, the quarterbacks who have been between 50 to 60% of their passing attempts over that middle third, it's really given KU problems so far this year. Five happy stats for Arizona. Number one, Arizona is one of four teams in the Big 12 who is in the top of the league in points per game and points allowed per game. The only other teams, Texas Tech, Utah and BYU. Those are three really good football teams.

Starting point is 00:14:30 I think Arizona is a pretty good football team who's playing well at the right time of year. Arizona is also second in the Big 12 in yards allowed per pass at only 4.4 yards allowed per pass. that's insane to give that up per pass. The only team who's better is Texas Tech at 4.1. They're even ahead of Utah who's at 4.7. And overall, that leads to Arizona ranking 15th nationally in defensive EPA per play. So we talked about the past defense and that leads to the defense overall being very good. But our next happy stat is more about the past defense.

Starting point is 00:15:04 They're the number one pass defense in the Big 12 in yards allowed per pass. They're the number one pass defense in the Big 12. in pass efficiency defense, and they're tied first in the big 12 in interceptions with a dozen. They've ate more than Kansas. So they've tripled the amount of interceptions that Kansas has. That is a gigantic edge on paper. And all of that comes together. Arizona is the number two pass defense nationally in the country by EPA per play and fourth in success rate.

Starting point is 00:15:34 So this is one of the five best passing defenses. Pretty standard across the board. Anyway, you cut it. in the country. Next happy stat. They're 93rd percentiles. Very good there in early downs EPA per play defensively. So they do a really good job of scheming things up on those early downs and then they get you into the third and longs and it doesn't go well because that past defense is so good. And then they are fourth in the big 12 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. So even when you are getting into their red zone, they're doing a great job of bending but not breaking,

Starting point is 00:16:06 which makes sense. If you have really good pass coverage, it's going to be even tighter windows in the red zone, and they're doing a really good job of kind of walling off in those situations. Five sad stats for Arizona, the special teams. They have the worst field goal percentage in the league, 12 of 19 is a team, and they are second to last in the league in net yards per punt. So this has not been a good special team specialist unit. KU, by the way, is second best in net yards per punt in the league. There's a six-yard difference in net yards per punt for Kansas to Arizona.

Starting point is 00:16:37 So if you add that up, if both teams punted twice, which is the like not a huge number necessarily. It depends how many possessions the game is. But over four puns, two for one team, two for the other. That would be about a 24-yard difference. That is something that could add up over the course of a game. Arizona has also been sacked 19 times this year. That ranks 13th in the Big 12.

Starting point is 00:16:57 And overall, they're minus two in sack differential. Sacks recorded by your defense minus sacks allowed by the offense. KU's plus one. So slight edge for KU on that on paper. Arizona is also 12th in the Big 12 in points per Red Zone trip. So we talked about their defense doing a really good job, bending by not breaking. They haven't punched it in enough offensively.

Starting point is 00:17:17 They are 13th in the Big 12 in Red Zone touchdown percentage on offense. We'll see if KU, who has not been a very good Red Zone defense so far, can kind of wall up on an Arizona offense that has had some struggles at times. Next, sad stat for the Wildcats, they are 90th in EPA per play nationally, passing the football when they're on offense. That's not 90th percentile. that is 90th ranked in the country in EPA per play, passing the football. So I don't think that tells the whole story about Fafita.

Starting point is 00:17:44 I do think he's better than that, but maybe that means they're getting sacked too much because that kind of goes into it as well. And then they are 96th in EPA per play nationally against the run and 127th nationally in success rate against the run. Now, it's interesting. You look at the yards allowed per run. Arizona ranks in the top five of the big 12. but the EPA per play and the success rate are bad.

Starting point is 00:18:07 And the success rate is the one that's way lower than even the EPA per play. What that tells me is that Arizona doesn't give up a lot of big runs. And on a lot of down-to-down basis, Arizona is pretty good against the run. But whenever opposing teams are like, hey, it's third and three, we got to get three yards. They're giving up three yards, you know. And that's kind of what that tells me that against is going to have an opportunity to have a successful running game. They're going to need it because the past defense is really good. Let's get further into those matchups of the game.

Starting point is 00:18:35 This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for joining us on this episode of LOJ. You can tune in to Locked on College Basketball for your second listen every day. Get ready for the KU North Carolina game or all of the College Basketball action this season, as well as Locked on College Football for your third lesson every day as well. And you can catch up on everything going on this weekend. College Football Playoff rankings came out earlier this week as well. Our matchups for Kansas versus Arizona first down.

Starting point is 00:19:02 Can KU actually cover? and get off the field. I don't mean covering the spread. I mean, I guess that'd be nice if they did that too. But I mean covering in the back end on their defense and get off the field when it's third and long and actually forced to stop. Arizona's only 11th in the big 12 in third down conversion rate. But you enter Kansas who has had trouble covering, especially on those key downs and those late downs. How many times have other teams converted those third and longs against the KU defense? It didn't feel like it got any better against Oklahoma State. In fact, their first touchdown that put him up 7-0 was one of those situations.

Starting point is 00:19:33 Meanwhile, Noah Fafita is coming off arguably his two best games of the season. So, you know, KU can't afford to get into a shootout, I don't think, in this one. Like, I think a lot of other games, like, I don't know, maybe that would be okay for Kansas, although they lost one to Cincinnati, lost one to Missouri. But I look at the Arizona passing defense. If you're giving up a lot of points, it's going to be hard for you to match because how good that passing defense is. So I don't think you can afford it.

Starting point is 00:20:00 And furthermore, I don't want to see the soft cover. stuff. So Noah Fafita is at seven yards per attempt this year when blitzed compared to 8.7 yards per attempt when he is not blitzed. That's a big difference. Fafita is at a 58% completion rate when he's blitzed. He's at a 70% completion rate when not. This should be a game where KU is aggressive dialing up the blitz. And I don't care if it's, hey, we were overly aggressive and we gave up a couple extra deep balls. Guess what? You're already giving up deep balls. you're already giving up big plays in the passing game. So why not be aggressive and be like,

Starting point is 00:20:35 hey, we're probably going to already give up big plays in the passing game anyway. Might as well try to get an extra sack or two. Might as well try to get an extra turnover or two out of it than we're already forcing, just my opinion. All right, second down, can KU run the ball? Because passing, like I said, might be tough. Arizona's a top five pass defense in the country, if you look at coverage grade, yards allowed per attempt,

Starting point is 00:20:54 EPA per play, success rate, just across the board. Would you believe me if I told you pro football focused gives Kansas the number seven run blocking team in the country. I certainly wouldn't. And I don't know that I do even after seeing it. They also have KU as the number 121 pass blocking team to which, granted, it was a disaster versus tech, not great versus Missouri. And there have been some other moments where it hasn't been great.

Starting point is 00:21:19 But I feel like both of those are like too far on the spectrum down the lane. Like I feel like it would make more sense if you said KU's run blocking is closer to like the 40th best team in the country and KU's pass blocking is. closer to like the 80th or 90th best team in the country. But anyway, point being that maybe there's more there than we're seeing. I don't know. We just saw Daniel Hyshaun, Lee Sean Williams have a good, you know, kind of duo game for KU against Oklahoma State.

Starting point is 00:21:45 I think you need them to rush for at least 150 combined in this one. And it would also help, you know, keep your defense off the field and help kind of go against what's an elite passing defense so far this season. Third down is the interception differential. This on paper is maybe the biggest advantage of Arizona. has coming in. I mean, obviously, it's the past defense, like Arizona's past defense elite, KU's past defense, not at all. But one of the big areas this leads to is interceptions. Arizona has three times the interceptions that Kansas has. I don't know that Kansas can go on the road

Starting point is 00:22:17 against a solid Arizona squad and win this game without winning the turnover battle, at least being even in it, right? So, I mean, if KU gets the same amount of interceptions as Arizona does, is that a win because you're you're neutralizing essentially one of the strength they have on paper. That means there's a lot on Jalen Daniels to play an efficient game against a past defense that's really good, not panic, not throw interceptions, but still be able to hit some big plays. It also probably means that, hey, maybe there is a time in this game, given how good their past defense is that Jalen is going to throw a pick. So can your defense get one back, which that becomes a struggle? Because, I mean, there's overall, the KU defense isn't

Starting point is 00:22:55 forcing turnovers, which makes sense, right? You've got to be around the ball, the forced turnovers and how many times are guys running wide open you're not going to get an interception if you're five yards away from the from the receiver right um Kansas is only forced two or more turnovers in a game twice this year one of them was week zero against president of state kU has forced one or zero turnovers every game in the last five Kansas has only forced three turnovers over the last five games and Kansas only has one interception in the last five games They've only had two interceptions in the last eight games. This has been really bad for Kansas.

Starting point is 00:23:29 They've not been getting those interceptions. If you can have the same amount of interceptions that they get, I think that's a win for KU, whether that's just because Jalen threw zero or, you know, you got one back. Fourth down is finishing drives in the red zone. Only BYU, Houston, and West Virginia have been better at preventing touchdowns in the red zone than Arizona. So very good at preventing touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:23:52 And it definitely feels like, like, every game, there's a driver to where KU has not punched it in, that you're like, I wish they would have been able. And you would be correct in looking at the stats. They're not one of the worst teams in the Big 12, but certainly middle of the pack to below average. KU ranks 11th in the Big 12 in points per red zone trip. And they are ninth in touchdown percentage there. So by both metrics, they're on the bottom half of the Big 12 and how they're converting their

Starting point is 00:24:20 points and getting those touchdowns in the red zone. This is not one of those games you can afford that. Points are going to be at a premium against this past defense and obviously easier said than done against the Arizona defense that, you know, he is good at doing that. But going on the road, you can't have multiple drives stop to a field goal. I would just say this. Like, I think you get one max. Everybody gets one. And honestly, it might take zero for Kansas to win this game, but you get one.

Starting point is 00:24:44 You get one drive. You can get in the red zone and get a field goal. Again, might take zero. But anything more than that, I don't think you're winning this game. And when you look at Arizona, I think, you know, I think, you know, with what they've done against the run and trying to punch it in in the red zone, I think this goes back to the idea. Can KU impose some strength of the line of scrimmage?

Starting point is 00:25:02 There's a lot of talk this week about playing a sixth offensive lineman. KU's beat up at the tight end spot. The offensive lineman, playing a six guy should give you more push on the offensive line. Is that something Kansas can do? And can this be one of their best rushing games of the season to try to pull off this upset on the road against Arizona? I thought it'll do it for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere that you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show.

Starting point is 00:25:25 We'll see you next time for a little KU North Carolina preview right here on LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CRITICAL: Jalon Daniels Faces ELITE Pass Defense as Kansas BATTLES Arizona for Bowl Game Eligibility

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