Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CRITICAL: Kansas Jayhawks MUST WIN vs Oklahoma State Cowboys or MISS Bowl | Can Daniels Bounce Back?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Kansas has to win if they want to make a bowl game. They have to beat Oklahoma State. We preview a game against the Cowboys in which the Jayhawks are heavily favored. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on.

Starting point is 00:00:30 on Jayhawks. Thanks to making it your first listen every day. And thank you to the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe. And on today's edition, we're going to be breaking down previewing the Kansas Oklahoma State game. We'll get into our top storylines, injury news. We'll get into our opponent's scouting port of the Cowboys, what they bring to the table, and the matchups of the game, how Kansas can come out on top against the Cowboys. Today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by Fanduel.

Starting point is 00:01:04 Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, it'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the Fandual app today. So Kansas takes on Oklahoma State 3 o'clock game, second to last home game for KU in Lawrence. It'll be very interesting to see what the attendance is. I still think it'll be a good attendance. It's before it's getting to like Arctic cold weather once we get into like

Starting point is 00:01:27 December. and stuff. Three o'clock is a solid time for a game. I don't know if it'll be a sellout, but I still think they'll get, you know, I don't know, 35, 40,000 somewhere in that range would be my guess. But for Kansas, this now is, you're on your final season of the year. Your final four games are your final season now because you need to go two and two. And to make it into a bowl game, to salvage a bit of this season, to avoid missing a

Starting point is 00:01:54 bowl game in back-to-back seasons, you got to win this game. there's not a path of you making it to a bowl game without winning this game. You are a heavy favorite. You should win this game. And so to that standpoint, too, this should probably be the worst loss of the Lance Leipoldera if you do lose the game. Now, ideally you're not losing the game and you're taking care of business and you're crushing Oklahoma State and then you feel like you shake off the previous couple weeks

Starting point is 00:02:19 and you're like, can we just nab one more of the last three, right? That is kind of the goal of what you're looking to walk away from this game with, right? But beyond the team, like part of what will go into what happens in this game, the rest of season, KU needs Jalen Daniels to bounce back in this one. They need Jalen to look like the guy he was over the first seven games, which was quite honestly one of the best quarterbacks in the country. It was not that way against Kansas State. And you could say that, hey, there's not that big moment on his resume.

Starting point is 00:02:48 Well, this isn't an opportunity for a big moment. This is just where you're looking for him to do the things where he puts up big stats and has big games and performs well for you as you try to crush Oklahoma State and then just kind of move on from there. They need him to bounce back, though. It's not just for this game and trying to win and, you know, get your confidence, get your mojo back. It's him trying to get his confidence and get his mojo back because you don't make it doable. Like, if you win this game by three, but Jalen Daniels doesn't look like Jalen Daniels, Jalen doesn't regain his confidence again, it's not going to matter in the final three games.

Starting point is 00:03:19 So as much as it's important for KU to win on the scoreboard, that would be the biggest kind of, you know, story or win along the way that they could try to gather from this game as well. The last storyline that I kind of have here is, before we get to the injury news, is the potential for, I don't know, kind of a revenge game for Doug Meacham and Clint Bowen. So Doug Meacham was the former KU offensive coordinator under David Beatty at Kansas. He was hired away from TCU and brought in an air raid system. And there was a lot of excitement when KU brought him aboard. Didn't totally work out at KU.

Starting point is 00:03:53 I don't know how much I blame Doug Meacham for some of that stuff, but it didn't really work. And he ends up getting let go in the middle of a season. The most memorable, honestly, thing for me with Doug Meacham was there was that game against TCU on like a, I think it was on Fox or something on like a Saturday night. I don't know, KU had like negative yards for a long, it might have been for the full game. I don't know. It was really bad. And there was just like a picture.

Starting point is 00:04:19 I remember Jesse Newell, who at the time was working with the star, took a picture. And back in the corner, like, that you could see, like, on this, like, staircase was Doug Meacham looking like the most sad, depressed person of all time. Like, what did I get myself into? I don't know how to get out of this. And unfortunately, now he's in another very similar position to that with Oklahoma State. He was the offensive coordinator. Now he's the interim head coach after Mike Gundy was let go. But boy being, you know, could this be a revenge game for him?

Starting point is 00:04:47 It is a little different with coaches than it is players, right? Like with a player, it's like, if I have a revenge game, I'm extra motivated. I'm going to hit harder. I'm going to be more fearless. Like, I don't know, the mentality can be a little bit different. What is the coach going to do? If a coach is going to be more angry or more aggressive, it's like, I don't know, what is that going to do?

Starting point is 00:05:02 Now, maybe it does lead to being more aggressive on fourth down. And if you're rolling the dice and the dice come up, you know, good for you, then that works out in your favor. But, you know, I don't know, maybe it's instead of getting coaches get so little sleep, maybe it's instead of getting four hours of sleep, he's getting two hours of sleep this week to try to your revenge. I don't know where that comes. The other one is Clint Bowen.

Starting point is 00:05:20 And Clint Bowen was a former KU player, very good. good KU defender who that eventually became a long time assistant coach for KU eventually became the defense coordinator. He eventually became the interim head coach for KU when they almost upset TCU back when TCU probably should have made it to the college football playoff. And I guess Kansas should have won the game and then it wouldn't have mattered. But Clinton Bowen, you know, had a very lengthy career at KU. He eventually became the head coach at Lawrence High School, then eventually became like a special assistant at Oklahoma State. And then eventually got promoted to D.C. after the firing of Mike Gundy. The defense has actually been a little

Starting point is 00:05:58 bit better since he's taken over. But again, like he's somebody who, will he feel spurned that, you know, he was eventually let go by Kansas and after all these years, like, is he going to want a bit of a revenge game? It'll be very interesting to kind of monitor both those things and what impact those have on this game for both teams. Our news, our injury news of the game coming into this one, well, for Kansas, the bad news is that Carson Bruin, I mean, all injury news bad news but the carson brun one is really bad he's out for the game that sounds like he might be out for the season and that's a guy who's played a lot of he picked up a lot of snaps for you at tight end um and has been this has not been a good blocking tight end or blocking receiver

Starting point is 00:06:37 unit overall for k u that's something they've done really well in past years they have not blocked well at either those positions this year brun was one of the exceptions brun was ku's highest graded run blocking tight end and that's going to hurt not having him in there specifically those plays for KU. Now, the good news is young player, redshirt freshman, he's got a bright future in front of him, and he's got more years to kind of show that. But that's certainly unfortunate for this game and moving forward for KU team that needs to run the ball better and you know, hasn't really to this point in time. Jason Strickland, Conley, Hovey, and Jaden Nickens, the other outs. Those ones weren't going to play anyway. And then the questionables are

Starting point is 00:07:15 Leishon Williams and DeMani Maxon. The Williams one again, like High Shaw's starting to get more healthy and play more. So that's good news there. with Williams, you know, I don't know, you more run for Harry Stewart, possibly more run for Johnny Thompson if he can't go, but that'll be one to watch. Overall, not a very big injury report for KU, so that is the good news there. For Oklahoma State, it's also not very big.

Starting point is 00:07:38 Questionable is Noah McKinney. And then out are Hoss Haney, Kale Smith, and Jalen Lloyd. Now, the Hoss Haney one is kind of interesting because the quarterback for Oklahoma State, kind of a dual threat, transfer from TCU, kind of more of a power running quarterback. he had been kind of slowly progressing back from an injury, and there were some reports a couple weeks ago that, like, oh, maybe he could come back. They're one in seven,

Starting point is 00:08:00 so it's like, is he really going to risk fully coming back for that? So he is out. That takes away that question. But they've played a lot of quarterbacks this year. Some injury stuff has certainly played in that. Well, Zane Flores, who was banged up. He's not on an injury report now.

Starting point is 00:08:16 So it might be Zane Flores, who gets to start against Kansas is what I would kind of read into that. I will say this. There have been some teams that have been. skirting around the injury report, like Utah's gotten in a bit of trouble for this and stuff like that. Going back to the idea of trying to get a little bit of revenge. Because I think, I don't know what happened. You get fined or whatever. But if you're the interim coach, does it still apply? I don't know. I guess it would. But if you're the interim coach when you're Doug Meacham

Starting point is 00:08:41 or your Climbone or whatever, are you sitting there going, hey, we can get some revenge on Kansas. Let's not give them a real injury report. Again, I'm not saying that's what's happening here. I'm just like, hypothetically, if I were in their shoes and I didn't get the brunt of it and I knew I wasn't going to be coaching at the school the next year anyway, I don't know, does the fine come to you or the school? I don't know. I just think that would be kind of an interesting strategy if you did employ that. So overall, pretty good that it's a light injury report for really both teams coming on into this game. All right, let's continue on on the show. We'll get on to our Oklahoma State Scouting report and then we'll get into our matchups of the game. This is Locked on Jayhawks.

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Starting point is 00:10:11 Thanks for joining us on this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. We'll have our keys to the KU win on tomorrow's episode of the show. We've had plenty of basketball content. This week as well here with Locked on Jayhawks. Okay, our opponent's scouting report for Oklahoma State. They come in with just a one and seven record. They have that one win. It was over an FCS team, beat UT Martin, not really overly impressively either, 27 to 7.

Starting point is 00:10:35 That was game. Hoss Haney got hurt, though. And so you look at the losses, I think the worst one. By score, it's the Oregon loss. They lost by 66 there, though, by opponent. That's not the worst loss. The worst loss by opponent is Tulsa, who they lost to at home, and they come into this one losing four straight games by over 20 points, including a 42-0-0-0 shutout by Texas Tech last week. As I mentioned, Meacham, the interim head coach, Clint Bowen is the D.C.

Starting point is 00:11:05 Right now, they are 125th on ESPNSP Plus. KU is dropping very quickly in that, but they're still a 53rd. also on that ESPNSB Plus, Cowboys have the number 122 offense, the number 120 defense, and the number 25 special teams. KU out of comparison is the number 33 offense, which is crazy.

Starting point is 00:11:27 They were number five going into last week. That's how bad of an offensive game it was against K State. They went from fifth in the country to 33rd off of one week. Also 75th ranked defense there, is actually up from the K-State game, though still not great. And special teams 33rd, which that was 11th last week. So that dropped pretty far. off the K-State game down to 33rd.

Starting point is 00:11:46 And then also on ESPNFPI, Oklahoma State is 124th, Kansas is 48th. The player personnel for the Cowboys, they only have four passing touchdowns from all the different quarterbacks they play this year. So that's been a struggle for them. Sounds like St. Flores, again, could be him this week. We'll get into quarterbacks here in a second. Rodney Fields is a really good running back. He's not on that injury reports.

Starting point is 00:12:08 That's of note because he missed last week, but he's a good back. Five and a half yards per carry, had 163 again. against Cincinnati, but again, did not play against Texas Tech. And outside of Rodney Fields, they've really struggled running the ball, but Fields has been a good running back for them. Now, he's been a little more boom or bust. It's either been like a big game or he's been under 50 yards, but he has that potential in him that that'll be a big key for KU trying to corral him

Starting point is 00:12:29 in the running game. Oklahoma State also ranks 135th on pro football focus in receiving grade. And obviously, you know, I'd imagine some of those struggles are quarterback related to, but that's not great either. The struggles on their offensive line are more in run blocking. They're 111th there. They're 24th in pass blocking grade, though, on pro football focus. That's actually, you know, not as bad as you would think with where Oklahoma State has been so far this season.

Starting point is 00:12:56 So the offensive line kind of hit or miss, it's kind of a tale of two stories with that you're talking about. If you are looking at sacks per attempt, they're 74th in the country. So comparatively to having the 132nd quarterback rating in the country, 133 yards per attempt. It's actually not like that bad. But again, the O-line run push is also 110th in the country. So O-line, kind of a mixed bag, but hasn't been great so far this year. In the secondary, they've had one good corner, basically, and one decent safety on PFF grades,

Starting point is 00:13:26 but a lot of bad in there. They've only forced three interceptions all year long. And then special teams-wise, their kicker is 11 of 13, long of 49 yards. They've been good there. They're also third in the big 12 yards per punt. So they've actually been solid in some of those areas. You look at the quarterback position for Oklahoma State. Four different quarterbacks for the Cowboys have thrown at least 10 passes this season.

Starting point is 00:13:48 Zane Flores has 140 attempts with just a 55% completion rate. He's only averaging 5 yards per attempt, and he has zero touchdowns at three interceptions. He might get to start this week. Sam Jackson, the fifth. He could play, who knows, 65 attempts with 52%. Five and a half yards per attempt with one touchdown to two picks. Noah Walters has 14 throws, and then Haas Heaney before he got hurt, had 10 throws. And you look at Jackson, he was the guy last week, he goes 9 of 19 for just 48 yards.

Starting point is 00:14:20 Walters was 5 of 12 for 39 yards. Again, that's a very good Texas Tech defense, but those are both ugly stat lines. A week prior, it was Jackson. He was the lone guy against Cincinnati. He was 11 of 19 for 149 yards and a pick. So it just hasn't been great for them, regardless of who the quarterback is. But overall, Oklahoma State is last, you put it all together, by a good measure in yards per attempts passing in the Big 12th.

Starting point is 00:14:46 They are 10 points lower in pass efficiency rating than even West Virginia, who I think we saw didn't have the best quarterback situation either. It's a lot of short passes in terms of where they want to go with it. So defending, you know, without a big cushion, I don't want to see KU have a big cushion in this game. I know they just got burnt deep a bunch against Kansas State. And I'm sure Oklahoma State saw that on film and they're going to take some shots to test it. But overall, this is still an offense that you look at the passing chart. They're throwing

Starting point is 00:15:12 the ball short a lot. Tackling in space is going to be important because of that, too, if you're Kansas. Key stats, four happy stats for Oklahoma State. They're 96th percentile in havoc rate defensively. So they have not been good, obviously, but they're getting a lot of negative plays. The number of tackles for loss, the passes defended, the forced fumbles, those are all things that go into havoc rate, and they have a really good one. So that's going to be the thing for KU, like you might take some negative plays in this game, but just understand that other teams have two against Oklahoma State, and they've been able to overcome it.

Starting point is 00:15:47 They're 49th in the country, so top 50, at least they're above average, in success rate against the run defensively. And the big reason why they don't give up explosive runs. They really limit them. And Kansas hasn't really gotten explosive runs all season long, so knowing that, I'm not sure that I'm really going to expect any in this game either. Oklahoma State's also plus two in net sacks. If you take sacks four minus sacks against, basically how often are you sacking the opposing

Starting point is 00:16:13 quarterback versus how often you're being sacked? So they're plus two. They're getting more sacks than they're giving up. That ranks ninth in the league. It's basically average. That's actually better than KU. KU is below Oklahoma State in net sacks. And then Oklahoma State's only 14th of the 16 teams in the Big 12 and third down

Starting point is 00:16:30 conversion percentage, which obviously isn't good. But the reason it's in happy stats is it's somehow better than KU, who's 15th, a 32.7%. So even though that's not a good thing for them, it actually is better on paper than what KU has. Four sad stats coming into this one. You know, I could get fancy here and tell you there are 134th in EPA per play offensively, which they are. But here's a simpler one. They're averaging only 14 and a half points per game. That's last in the Big 12.

Starting point is 00:16:59 And the difference between where they are and 15th place. second to last, West Virginia, it's wider than the gap between where Kansas is at 10th all the way to BYU and fourth. So it's like they are by far scoring the least points in the league. They're also last in the Big 12 and points allowed per game at 38.9. The difference there to 15th, Baylor is wider than Kansas at 12th to Arizona at 7th. So again, another gap there. And then they are 123rd in EPA per play defensively against the pass. If ever Jayland Daniels are going to have a slump busting game and break out of the K-State game, what we saw there. It would be this one because they are allowing an astounding nine and a half yards per

Starting point is 00:17:35 attempt passing. Like Jalen Daniels is third in the big 12 right now, averaging eight and a half yards per attempt. Let that sink in. Jalen Daniels third in the big 12 average in eight and a half yards per attempt. The Oklahoma State defense is giving up nine and a half yards per temp right now. Jalen should feast in this game. And then they're also last in the big 12 and touchdown percentage allowed in the red zone is Oklahoma State as well as points per red zone trip. They're giving up 4.93 points per red zone trip. Kansas is only 13th in that stat, but the gap again between Oklahoma State and Kansas is wider than the gap Kansas to Houston in sixth place. So it's not just that Oklahoma State is last in a lot of these categories. It's kind of where we were with Kansas

Starting point is 00:18:13 a lot of years in the 2010s, where it's like it's not just that they're last, it's that they're last by a mile. And that's where kind of things have been for Oklahoma State. All right, let's finish up here, matchups of the game. This is locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of LOJ is brought to you by Mazda. Mazda crafts cars for those who do more than simply move. From footwork to breathwork, athletes sweat all the details. Mazda brings the same intention to how we craft every model. You can make everyday drives feel like anything but from smooth handling to intuitive controls.

Starting point is 00:18:46 With all-wheel drive standard in every crossover SUV, you can drive with confidence through almost any season. Like our players, we sweat every detail. because when you make every move count, impossible becomes irrelevant. Mazda move and be moved. Thanks for joining us on this episode Locked on Jayhawks as we break down the KU Oklahoma State game and Jayhawks looking to take down the Cowboys. How do they get it done first down for KU? Mentally show up and play your game.

Starting point is 00:19:19 Like KU is the better team, KU's the better team on paper here. Even with KU's troubles and recent games, games, you're still good enough in this one to come in as a 24 point favorite. That should tell you enough to be like, if Oklahoma State wins this game, it's because Kansas probably shot themselves in the foot. Sure, Oklahoma State could have some players have, you know, really good performances and go off in this game and, you know, Clint Bowen and Doug Meacham have good game plans. But like, at the end of the day, if KU plays their game and doesn't, you know, make a bunch of sloppy plays or dumb football or turnovers or whatever, you're going to be fine. So for this team's faults,

Starting point is 00:19:53 You know, they've shown to perform pretty well, too, against bottom-tier competition. You think of the West Virginia game. You think of the easier games on their schedule, Fresno State. You think Wagner. They've been able to come up big there. So just play your game and mentally shake off what has recently happened, and you're going to be fine here. Second down for our matchups, KU and Oklahoma State. Slump busting on third down.

Starting point is 00:20:15 I don't know if I'm just at a point now. Like, I remain steadfast for a while. I think I finally flipped the switch where this is like, maybe this isn't going to happen this year for KU. it's just been so weird because KU has been pretty good on early downs and they're actual like they're they're in the 67th percentile nationally in average third down distance. So that's like solid, you know, above average solid good of where they are in average third down distance offensively. But they're 15th in the big 12th in third down percentages here.

Starting point is 00:20:45 And again, it's not like this is a longstanding thing. They were in the top two of the league each of the previous three years, 22 through 2024, top two in the league each of those years it just doesn't really make sense i i don't know is that the difference of having you know the last two years they've had like really one of the better offensive lines in the conference this year it's more average right that that certainly hurts you on third down um even though there wasn't maybe as much yard after catch or explosion from the previous receiving core there was a lot of trust there was a lot of route running there was a lot of contested catches and those help in a lot of those situations on third down so i i don't know what it is is

Starting point is 00:21:20 it, whatever, but like, Kansas is even behind Oklahoma State on third downs. And if ever there's a game to turn things around on third downs, Oklahoma State is last defensively in the Big 12th in third down defense. Their opponents are converting 47% of the time. If Kansas still can't convert on third down in this game, then it's officially something up with, I don't know if at that point it would be the play calling. I don't know if it'd be the offense line. I don't know if it'd be Jalen or whatever, but like, there's no excuse to continue to

Starting point is 00:21:49 struggle on third downs in this game. Third down, overcome the wrinkles. I refuse to believe that Doug Meacham and Clint Bowen won't have a few extra wrinkles or trick plays or something up their sleeve that honestly they've been saving for this game, that they had this one circled. And now especially coming into this game, I would not be surprised if they have it. And so if you're Kansas, stay disciplined, right? If they throw a double pass, if they run a fake punt, be ready for some of those things because they could be coming your way, overcome the wrinkles in this game. And for Kansas, throw some new wrinkles out there. It feels like we've seen that same fake option to pass play,

Starting point is 00:22:26 which is really cool the first couple times you run it. But eventually it's like, hey, the other team's going to have that on film and scouting it. Throw some new wrinkles yourself, right? And then fourth down here, establishing the run. KU is averaging just 107.5 rushing yards per game over their last four games. So basically 108 rushing yards per game over the last four. And they're only doing it on 3.1 yards per carry. Certainly the Texas Tech game with all those sacks hurt you because it counts.

Starting point is 00:22:50 against rushing stats and college, yada, yada, yada. But Oklahoma State's defense has given up 4.2 yards per carry. That's an upgrade from where you've been over these last four games. It's actually not that bad, though, for Oklahoma State. And they have been given up under 100 yards or, you know, twice, including 88 rushing yards to Texas Tech over their last four games. So over their last four games, given up under 100 twice. And again, a Texas Tech offense that ran for over 300 against Kansas,

Starting point is 00:23:20 only at 88 against Oklahoma State. So it's actually been a pretty decent run defense, especially with Clint Bowen as the D.C. Now, we have seen Clint Bowen defense. You think of the Somaget-P-Rond game, where they did get torched from that, but I don't know the relation with that offense with what this Kansas one is.

Starting point is 00:23:37 But in a game where you want KU to kind of steady the ship and dominate this game, you're going to have to run the ball well. You can't just fully expect Jalen Daniels to have 400 yards and the defense to play shutdown. And, like, if you run the ball, keeps the defense a little out, like, takes them, make things easier on Jalen Daniels. So Hyshaw, arguably off his best game of the year against Kansas State. We mentioned Lishon Williams is questionable coming into this one.

Starting point is 00:24:03 So, you know, it might be even more on Daniel Hyshaw, but it does feel like Hyshaw is trending in the right direction, both with health and his level of play the last couple weeks. He's going to need to have a big game and Kansas needs to run the ball better than Texas Tech did. That's for sure. That'll know for this episode of Lockdown, Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get a podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. We'll be back at you on tomorrow's episode. We're going to be discussing the keys for Kansas to come away with a victory. And we'll see you then right here on LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CRITICAL: Kansas Jayhawks MUST WIN vs Oklahoma State Cowboys or MISS Bowl | Can Daniels Bounce Back?

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