Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Critical Player Matchups That Will Determine Kansas Jayhawks vs Arkansas Razorbacks in First Round

Starting point is 00:00:00 DeJuan Harris vs Boogie Flandt, Hunter Dickinson vs Big Z, what player matchups could determine Kansas vs Arkansas in round one of the NCAA tournament? You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked On Jayhawks. Thanks for making your first listen every day. Thank you that every day is catching each and every episode of the show, whether you're finding us on our YouTube page,

Starting point is 00:00:37 where you can like and subscribe to the show or anywhere that you get your podcasts on the audio side of things. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're going to go a little deep dives into some of the detailed looks about what makes players on both sides of this Kansas-Arkansas kind of makes them tick and where they excel, where they struggle, what it can tell us about the individuals and about the individual matchups we're going to have between Kansas and Arkansas that could determine which team moves out on Thursday night in Providence. This episode of Locked On Jayhawks is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONCOLLege at MonarchMoney.com for 50% off your first year. So Kansas takes on Arkansas Thursday night and let's get

Starting point is 00:01:26 started with the guards because from very interesting matchups here that you're looking at from the exhibition game where Arkansas's guards torched Kansas and after the game, Bill South had very complimentary things to say. About the Arkansas guards that they would be as good of a group as Kansas played all season long. Now I don't know that that came to fruition. The Houston guards are really good and, you know, there's some other teams, Iowa State, the guards that were really good, even North Carolina, you

Starting point is 00:01:51 know, even though they didn't have the season they were hoping for, still had pretty good guards. So, I think that I don't know where I would put this one. If you're just talking like pure athleticism, this one is certainly up there. It's still a good backcourt, but they've been injured and so it's hard to exactly tell. And it's also hard to tell because what is exactly going to be the status of Boogie Fland in this game? It sounds like according to John Calipari, Boogie Fland, who averaged over 15 points per game so far this season, is going to be back coming from his injury.

Starting point is 00:02:21 But to what level are we talking here? Are we talking he's just able to play 5-10 minutes in the game? Are we talking he's given 35 minutes and he looks like the same guy? Or are we talking he's going to play 25, but he's not going to be the same efficient player and he's going to have to shake some rust off. There's a lot of levels to this about what they're going to get from Boogie Land, how that affects the matchups, how that affects the games, how that affects who guards who on both ends of the floor. So I'm very interested to see how that all goes., how that affects who guards who on both ends of the floor. So I'm very interested to see how that all goes.

Starting point is 00:02:48 But when you look at the guard group, I think in general, you still know Arkansas has some guys that can beat you there, whether Boogie Fland is to the top level of what he normally is or not. John L. Davis, who's been a very successful player in the NCAA tournament, and DJ Wagner, who is a former five star recruit who, you know, certainly can go off at a moment's notice. And from the Kansas perspective, there's also the added element of injury for their guards

Starting point is 00:03:14 because Shaq Moore, is he gonna play in this game? Bill Self had some comments about him, you know, maybe being able to practice recently that makes you think that maybe he's gonna have an opportunity to. And again, like that's something where it's like, well, Shaq Moore, it's not like, he had ingrained himself

Starting point is 00:03:32 as being a 30 minute per game guy outside of the first few games he was playing. Are you really gonna throw him in there to a moment like this after not playing for a while? I don't know, but then you look at the matchup where you're playing an Arkansas team that can really use those guards to their advantage wouldn't having another guard who can, you know,

Starting point is 00:03:50 if he is healthy, be a good defender and Shaq more wouldn't that be very helpful. The other problem though, is when Shaq more tried to play through the injury, he wasn't the same effective guy on the defensive edge. Now, when I look at those Arkansas guards, so look at a boogie flanned a couple things kind of look stick out in looking at boogie flans game. So 18 games played maybe a little bit smaller of a sample size in terms of what you're going for here. But we've learned only shot 41% at the

Starting point is 00:04:15 rim this season that is seventh percentile for guards he was really good on that floater area. He was really good in the mid range so far this season. He was really good on corner threes. It was only 16 attempts, but he went 18 of 16. But that becomes interesting to me because it is something where it's like, okay, knowing that, Kansas sometimes plays drop coverage with Hunter Dickinson, Boogie Fland will eat you apart

Starting point is 00:04:37 because he will make and take those mid-range and floaters. You're almost better off this time playing a higher line with the back end if you are Kansas. And you look at DeJuan Harris, like how can he try to, if that is the matchup, slow him down? You look at DeJuan Harris recently, over his last five games, DeJuan Harris is only in the 32nd percentile in steel rate on the defensive end of the floor. For the season, it's 72nd percentile. So can DeJuan find a way to get back to that nominator? What I do think about the other end of the court

Starting point is 00:05:07 is interesting because Dewan, over his last five games, is shooting 63% from three point range. Now that is on a low volume to say the least, but it's better that it's happening than it's not. One thing though that I do find interesting here too is Dewan's turnover rate this season is 31st percentile. That is not a good number.

Starting point is 00:05:26 And over the last five, it is the 11th percentile. He's got to do a better job taking care of the basketball this game against Arkansas and Boogie Fland. You look at some of the other guards that come out in this one with John L. Davis, who Davis has not had quite the season as some of his past years at FAU, but he still is dangerous.

Starting point is 00:05:45 When you look at his past NCAA tournament resume, and so for Kansas, it becomes, okay, he's a little bit taller, lengthier of a guard. Who is going to be guarding him if you're Kansas? Is that a Zeke Mayo assignment? And if it is Zeke Mayo, can he step up? Because, you know, Zeke Mayo has had some unbelievable offensive games, hasn't always been known for the defensive side of the basketball, right? And so what are you going to get from Zeke Mayo has had some unbelievable offensive games, hasn't always been known for the defensive side of the basketball, right?

Starting point is 00:06:06 And so what are you going to get from Zeke Mayo on the defensive end of the floor in that specific matchup against John L. Davis, who's really good on those pick and roll situations? One thing to note though for Zeke Mayo, he's 87th percentile over his last five games in free throw attempt rate. He's done a great job of getting to the free throw line recently for KU. He also is in the 99th percentile Oliver's last five in three point percentage, 74th in free throw percentage, 99th in true shooting percentage.

Starting point is 00:06:33 But the defensive numbers, the steal rate, the block rate, the assist to turnover rate, those things do not rate out super well. So again, that becomes a very interesting match. The other match up of note here is with DJ Wagner. So Wagner is somebody who does shoot better at the rim, 61% of the rim this season. He's also in the 69th percentile in mid-range twos and 58th percentile at above the break.

Starting point is 00:06:56 Three is at 34%. He's been really bad from the corner and hasn't really taken a ton of corner three so far this season though to begin with. And so who defends you know, maybe maybe it's Harris on Wagner, but then who defends Flandre and if you know, basically, it's a situation where his kids gonna play more three guard looks, or we can see more diggy quite out there to kind of match up with the three guard and three guard, or you

Starting point is 00:07:20 can have like a Rylan Griffin out there on one of these guards. That too, becomes interesting. And when you look at it, Rylan Griffin out there on one of these guards? That too becomes interesting. And when you look at it, Rylan Griffin may be more used to defending wings who are gonna be in the corner. But that's not the case for DJ Wagner. That's not the case for Boogie Flandt. Now it is a little bit more the case with John L. Davis who's attempted 42 corner threes.

Starting point is 00:07:38 That's more than the 39 combined by Wagner and Flandt. And again, part of that is his Flandt was injured for a little bit there. But point being, maybe it makes sense to put Ryland Griffin on John L. Davis, right? If Davis is a little bit taller and he shoots more corner threes than the other guys, maybe that's where it makes a little bit more sense

Starting point is 00:07:55 to kind of battle that way if you are Kansas. And we mentioned Ryland Griffin, some of his recent struggles here for KU. They're trying to get him going. Right now he is in the first percentile and two point percentage over his last five, eighth percentile and three point percentage over his last five, fifth percentile

Starting point is 00:08:12 and free throw percentage over his last five and first percentile and steal percentage over his last five. It'll be very interesting to me what the leash is for Bell Self in this game and going back to this matchup of the guards, at what point does Shaq Moore factor in with that injury that we just kind of talked about? Is that the guy who loses out

Starting point is 00:08:28 minutes to Shaq Moore if he is able to play a good load? Would it be Ryland Griffin? And then beyond that, what does this mean for Diggy Coy? Typically with Diggy, it's okay, he's going to come out and shoot two or three threes. If he's out for three, that might be it for him, right? Unless Duann Harris really needs a spell. If he comes out and he's 0 for three, that might be it for him, right? Unless the Juan Harris really needs a spell. If he comes out and he's two for two, he might play 30 minutes in that specific game. And maybe that's kind of what this comes down to. It'll be interesting to me too,

Starting point is 00:08:53 because Diggy is a smaller guard and those Arkansas guards are a little bigger. Wagner's 6'3", John L. Davis is like 6'4", Boogie Flanders is 6'2", 6'3". So they have a little bit of height there. They have the athleticism. And Diggy Coyt was 0-5 in that exhibition matchup.

Starting point is 00:09:08 Now maybe that was just the lights were bright, tough road environment, right? When you're coming from playing at Jukeball in Northern Illinois, and now he's a little bit more used to it. So I'll be very interested to see these guard matchups specifically. It might not be as star power driven as the big matchups,

Starting point is 00:09:23 which we'll get to here in a second, but it might be the most important matchups of the game. All right, let's keep this going with the bigs. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Upwork. Scaling your business requires the right expertise at the right time. With Upwork, you can find specialized freelancers in marketing, development, design, and more.

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Starting point is 00:11:23 questions with fabric I continue on with the show thanks for making locked on jay hawks your first listen every day anywhere you podcast don't forget you can check out locked on college basketball as well and get you ready for the NCAA tournament not just in Kansas Arkansas perspective but for everything else kind of going on all right the other matchups occur at the big position here. And obviously the big one here, Hunter Dickinson for KU, who just got named a third team All-American recently. And, you know, had Kansas been better, who knows what he would have been named at the end of the season. But Hunter right now is playing well. He over his last five games, 78th percentile in offensive rebound rate.

Starting point is 00:12:06 He's shooting 43% from three over those last five games. The two point percentage been a bit more inconsistent. It's actually below average for his position, 53 and a half percent on twos. He shot free throws well though, 76%. The assist percentage really good, 88th percentile for centers, 79th percentile in steel rate for centers, 59th in block rate.

Starting point is 00:12:27 Really the only thing that hasn't come across I guess the two point shootings been you know, closer to average that has more to do with teams just swarming him I think has been the turnover rate hasn't been good over the last five games also the free throw attempt rate which that one's just been one lower like 100 just can't get calls I don't know what it is. That's just kind of a thing that continues on but he's gonna have his hands full in this matchup and I'll be curious to see who guards him and who he guards on

Starting point is 00:12:51 the defensive end. So you look at Arkansas, it's three main bigs that they're going to use Trayvon Brazil, Jonas I do and Big Z. I don't even want to try to pronounce the first name but a V stitch is the last name. And you look at all of those guys, they're all like six foot 10 or taller. I do is a really good like rim protector defender, but Hunter had his way with him in the third place game of the Maui Invitational last year when I do was at Tennessee. When you look at a V stitch, he is somebody

Starting point is 00:13:24 who, you know, was shooting threes well in the exhibition game, and he can stretch it and shoot threes at a really high level. So that becomes interesting on the offensive end against Hunter, he's also seven to say, can you match up well enough? Even though I think I do, I would view him as a better defender than than a V stitch, but a V stitch is bigger to contend with 100. And so how do you go between those two? Or do you go with trade bomb Brazil, right? And Brazil kind of the same

Starting point is 00:13:44 thing of like a Vsitch where it's like he can shoot the three on the offensive side of the ball. And on the defensive side, like he's more of a mobile defender. So I envision him being more at the four. I think it's kind of a combo of a I do and a Vsitch who would be guarding on her. And then I think for Hunter, he's going to be guarding I do.

Starting point is 00:14:01 The question is, what happens if they throw a lineup of Brazil and a Vsitch out? Because then at that point, they have one big who you're going to basically have to just live with making or shooting threes and hope like heck that they're missing on that game because the hope is that KJ can guard the other one. But that's where it comes into play too with KJ Adams versus the other one of those bigs because KJ is six, seven, and those other bigs are just bigger than him at being, you know, a too big lineup, so to speak. So that becomes interesting. Are those guys

Starting point is 00:14:32 going to be able to, you know, work him in the post? KJ always did a good job as an undersized big when he was, you know, playing the the five, the playing the center position for KU a couple of years ago. So I don't have as much worry about that necessarily. I would if it's a V-sitch on him, because that's seven inch advantage. But if it's, if it's Brazil or I do like,

Starting point is 00:14:50 that's three inch advantage. If they're trying to post him up, like I'm not overly worried about that. You do need KJ's ability to get out on them and stop those spot up threes. The problem is KJ's best role as a defender is almost being like an on-ball defender and being a switchable defender and being a weak side

Starting point is 00:15:05 defender. When you have guys who are spotting up from three, that's where, you know, KJ might run into, oh, I gave up a three because I'm trying to cover for this other person messing this up or something like that. So it becomes a very difficult matchup, I think, for the KU Biggs on the defensive end of the court. And yeah, you looked at that for Arkansas so far this season. So, Ivisich is shooting 75% at the rim, but he's only attempted 47 field goals at the rim.

Starting point is 00:15:33 That's not his game. Like out of comparison, Carter Knox, their freshman, who has played 783 minutes in 33 games, he is attempted 49 at the rim. DJ Wagner has attempted 84 shots at the rim. Boogie Fland hasn't played in like 15 games and he's attempted 34 shots, almost as many as Avicich at the rim.

Starting point is 00:15:54 And so you look further down the numbers, Avicich has taken 99 above the break threes, that's 37%, that really stresses your spacing getting out there and 24 corner threes at 42%. So that's where you know part of that comes. Trayvon Brazil, a guy who's shooting 93% at the rim this season, but it's like all dunks like that's all he does. He's not really looking to post up

Starting point is 00:16:15 necessarily and score there. Only 14 more shots in the paint, but he's taking 24 above the break threes 46%. 27 corner threes at 37%. So that is where the challenge is for the KU defense. How do you go about guarding those guys? I legit think it makes sense to almost play zone against Arkansas, but I don't think Bill Suff is going to do that.

Starting point is 00:16:33 I don't know. I guess I take that back. We've seen Bill Suff in some big moments throughout junk defenses, as he calls them, for maybe five, ten minute stretches. I think it would make a lot of sense to do it in a game like this. We'll see if that ends up happening. It doesn't happen like that often, but I do think it makes make a lot of sense to do it in a game like this. We'll see if that ends up happening. It doesn't happen like that often, but I do think it makes a little bit of sense on the defensive end and then you could have, you know, Hunter in the middle or

Starting point is 00:16:53 you could almost even like, this is where the three big lineup, I've not been a fan of it all year in modern basketball, but like if ever you were going to use the three game lineup, this might be the game that makes the most sense. Maybe it doesn't when they're playing three guards next to each other, but when Carter Knox is out there at the three for them, and Carter Knox so far this season, he's been a good young freshman. He's shooting 28% on above the break threes. He is shooting very well on corner threes, 39%. But if you're playing a two-three zone and you're playing three bigs where Flory's on one side, KJ's on the other against a team who has two bigs,

Starting point is 00:17:30 like I don't hate that actually if I'm Kansas. Again, though, I don't think that's going to happen with Bill Self. I wonder if this could be a huge game for Flory Badunga because you do think about it. And part of the problem I will say with Flory, he shows flashes of being a mobile defender to being able to get out on guys on the perimeter,

Starting point is 00:17:49 but he also is still freshmen. And so he's also still learning, and sometimes off the ball, he can get lost, especially if his guy can't shoot. And so this could go either way. His mobility, if he's locked in and is able to find his guy, could be a huge benefit to KU playing

Starting point is 00:18:04 against the two bigs for Arkansas with one or two of them at all times on the court being able to find his guy could be a huge benefit to KU playing against the two bigs for Arkansas with one or two of them in all times on the court being able to shoot. On the flip side though, if he does get lost, it becomes a problem for the KU defense. So it is a big opportunity for Flory and we'll see where that one kind of goes with things. And then you look at it, those bigs for Arkansas

Starting point is 00:18:22 do a pretty good job of defending in the paint, which is obviously where Kansas wants to go with the basketball to that big man. So I think very intriguing matchups between all of the big men here on both teams. How do they match up? How does the three point shooting of the Arkansas bigs affect the Kansas big?

Starting point is 00:18:39 And then at the other end, like if Hunter Dickinson is gonna continue to shoot like this in three that we saw in the Big 12 tournament, it presents a similar problem that Arkansas is going to provide for KU. So I think a lot of interesting matchups there between these two teams and down in the post. What about the wing position? That's kind of the forgotten position for KU at this point in time, but it won't be forgotten in this game.

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Starting point is 00:19:44 Use code LOCKEDONCOLLege at MonarchMoney.com for 50% off your first year. That's MonarchMoney.com. Go to Locked On College for half off your first year with Monarch Money. The NCAA Tournament is here, and so is the bracket breakdown. Locked On Podcast Network and Amazon Fire TV channels are teaming up to deliver NCAA tournament is here and so is the bracket breakdown locked on podcast network and Amazon fire TV channels are teaming up

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Starting point is 00:20:39 episode tomorrow morning. It'll come out. I was still have time to listen to that or watch it before the game anywhere that you get this year with Lockdown Jayhawks. So the last player match up here we got to get to is the wings between these two teams. And for Kansas, a lot of times this year

Starting point is 00:20:53 they really haven't had like a consistent wing play. We've seen moments from Ryland Griffin. We've seen moments from AJ Storr, a little less so for Storr, although recently even one or two for Storr has been more than we've seen from Griffin kind of depends if you count Zeke Mayo and some of the three yard lineups as a wing. I don't but you know, Rikis Passmore.

Starting point is 00:21:12 It's been very very limited playing time. So we haven't really seen that from Kansas this year. The interesting thing about Arkansas's. Yes, they do have, you know, Carter Knox. They also have Billy Richmond who count as a guard count as a wing. He's count as a wing. He's a big physical six, five, um, guard slash Ford. I kind of count him as a wing because of his physicality and the way he plays,

Starting point is 00:21:32 not really a big three point shooter. So this one to me more so becomes about the wing position is the position that can be like the found money in this game a little bit. Not as much the case with Carter Knox, who we mentioned is a good player. But also he's somebody who, because he shoots so well on corner threes, it becomes imperative that you don't just lose him in the corner as the fourth or fifth piece on offense. And then boom, all of a sudden Carter Knox, his three corner threes

Starting point is 00:22:00 in the game that adds up being the difference for you. On the flip side of things for Kansas, Ryland Griffin, we mentioned some of his stats, you know, earlier over these recent games, like they need to find a way to get him going in a very real way. Even with his struggles lately, he still is shooting, you know, 33% on above the break threes 35% in the corner. This would be a great game for Ryland Griffin to kind of get out of his slump. The other big question comes with

Starting point is 00:22:25 what are you going to get from AJ store? Are you going to get the guy from the big 12 quarterfinal or the big 12 second round? Are you going to get the guy from the big 12 quarterfinals? And if you get the guy from the big 12 second round, like, I think it becomes something where I don't know, like, I guess Kansas had to win an overtime over UCF even having it. But like, I mean, that would be such a huge boon to trying to win. It is crazy looking at the last five game stats, by the way, for AJ Store. 59th percentile and effective field goal percentage. So, you know,

Starting point is 00:22:54 slightly above the average there. 72nd percentile in free throw attempt rate. 75th percentile in three ball percentages, shooting 37.5% from three three over the last five games 58th percentile and true shooting percentage, but then zero percentile and offensive rebound percentage over the last five because he has zero 23rd percentile and turnover percentage too many there. 35th percentile in free throw percentage for his position 15th percentile and assist rate, second percentile and assist turnover percentage, zero percentile because he has zero

Starting point is 00:23:23 and steals and 12th percentile in block rate. I mean, if that doesn't like sum up the AJ store experience, I don't know what does. It's just like, it's scoring when he's on and you ain't getting nothing else. You better hope that the scoring is on. And maybe this, you know, maybe that last week at least gives him a little bit of confidence

Starting point is 00:23:41 to do something in a moment like this. But I do think on paper, like you look at Arkansas, just having Carter Knox and known commodity Billy Richmond and doing what he's going to provide that gives them the leg up in terms of those wing players. But if instead of Carter Knox being the guy who's lethal from the corner, if that switches to Ryland Griffin in a game like this, maybe that's the seesaw, maybe that's the change in this matchup of what could be a close game, right? If Ryland Griffin's two for three in the corner and Cardanox is 0 for two or one for three,

Starting point is 00:24:12 maybe that's the one big thing that gets Kansas over the hump in a game like this into the second round. But we'll talk more about this game, what Arkansas does well, what they don't do well, headlines coming into the game, keys for the game for KU, all that and plenty more on tomorrow's KU Arkansas preview right here with Lockdown Jayhawks, anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page. See

Starting point is 00:24:32 you next time.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Critical Player Matchups That Will Determine Kansas Jayhawks vs Arkansas Razorbacks in First Round

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