Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CROSSROADS: Kansas and K-State CLASH in MUST-WIN Battle | Can Wildcats Contain Jalon Daniels?

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's Sunflower Showdown time. I'm going to tell you why I think Kansas actually can do it. They can actually end the streak of losing 16 straight to Kansas State. You are Locked-on College Crossover, part of the Lop-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here with Christian Rau, and this is a locked-on-john. Hawks, Locked on Kansas State Wildcats, crossover as we get ready for the Sunflower Showdown on Saturday.

Starting point is 00:00:36 And we're going to be breaking down what it's going to take for Kansas to end the streak. We're going to be breaking down why we think that's a possibility. We're going to be breaking down what Kansas State has to do to get the victory and move back to 500. And then we're going to get our thoughts on the spread. Kansas favored right now over at Fandul. And hey, today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fanduel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 and bonus bets to use across the app.

Starting point is 00:01:02 Download the app today with Fandle. We'll also get into the injury report from Wednesday night. But I just, it's one of those things where I'm a little worried about where I've gotten myself because I have told myself all offseason, I've told myself really the weeks leading up to this game and maybe even at the onset of this week that I would never pick Kansas against Kansas State again at this point until I actually saw them win one of the games in the series because it just happened so many times. And it's not just that like they haven't won the games. It's the Charlie Brown getting the football pulled from him before he kicks it with some of the ways they've lost these games to where I just couldn't convince myself to do it.

Starting point is 00:01:40 But now we're later in the week. I'm hyping myself up. I'm talking myself up. Am I crazy to think that this could be the year that Kansas actually ends the streak? No, not at all. Maybe you should have used the pig pen reference because I think this one's going to be an absolute mudback. I think this one's going to be a really dirty game in the case of being so dang close. And I keep referring to the KU Cincinnati game as I think this one's going to be an absolute track me,

Starting point is 00:02:06 at least has the potential to do so. I don't by any means of the imagination think that this game is 100% in favor of Kansas State. And even Fandul, like I said, we mentioned that, is in favor of Kansas. We'll talk about more of that in the minute because I'm a little bit on the edge there. But look, I mean, this off season, I have gone to multiple times and been in agreeance with you, maybe more on the more Kansas state side, saying that I don't even think this should be seen as a rivalry because in rivalries, there are teams that win and lose and go back and forth. And for the last 16 games, that hasn't been the case. But when you're going into this game this week and you're going into this sunflower showdown for the first time it feels like, okay, this one actually matters just a little bit more. Kansas State hasn't had the best season.

Starting point is 00:02:53 They already lost to one of their rivals to start the season in Iowa State. If they lose to both in what seems like a down season, a season that's obviously regressing, at the same exact time when Kansas is doing all of this other things to strengthen their program, not just be the basketball school that everybody likes to point them out to be, if you lose this one, I think the rivalry changes in a complete 180. And that is something that Kansas State just can't have. Yeah. And I think that from a Kansas perspective, like you've built up this great in state recruiting class in the class of 2026. And for so many years, they've struggled comparatively to Kansas state with the in state recruiting. And it feels like that's starting to shift. But my kind of question is, does it, is that something that Kansas can capitalize on and do again in 2027 and 2028 if they don't win a game like this? Like eventually you do have to start winning for the recruits as well. Yeah. I'm a completely.

Starting point is 00:03:50 agree. Right now you have the momentum heading into this one. And I said this on my episode on Tuesday. I said before the final whistle blows, Kansas has the all the momentum for this game. Although they've lost 16 in a row, they have all the momentum because what the program has done, what they've done with adding all this money, what the recruiting classes looked like. I mean, Kansas State has had one of the best recruiting classes in 2025. It's been one of the best ones they've had in the history of their program. Of course, bringing in Lincoln Cure. We all. know who Lincoln Cure is, but in 2026, that's completely different. And it is in favor of KU. Now, if they wanted that continue, I don't think you can be able to push that narrative, something that Kansas State has been able to do in the past and say, hey, we not only are putting in this money, but we are second place to the Sunflower Showdown, you have to be able to get that win. So I'm going to go out on a stretch here and say, I think it is more big time, although it is a point to where if they lose this game, the season is completely over for both teams

Starting point is 00:04:52 because you're getting that dreadful third loss in the Big 12 conference, I think it's more important for Kansas to win this game instead of Kansas State. Now, I could go on to the entire things and say that this is dreadful for Coach Climmon and the rest of Kansas State if they lose this game. But if you don't win this one as Kansas, I think you lose all the momentum you had for 2027, 28, and beyond. and it's going to say all that money you put in is for no reason and you're going to have to start over fresh again to that momentum

Starting point is 00:05:22 because you still can't get past Kansas State if you don't win on set. Yeah, and I feel like for both teams like, I don't know, like whoever loses is not in great shape to even make a bowl game even. Exactly. I agree. Kansas State getting Texas tech afterwards too. Like that certainly makes it difficult. So, you know, what are some reasons why I think Kansas can win this game?

Starting point is 00:05:42 I'm going to throw up some stats here from Pick Six previews. But one of the things that kind of sticks out to me as we're looking at like something that I, what is Kansas, I think, going to try to do this week? And we talked earlier this week that I'm curious if Kansas is going to throw the ball, uncork the football a little bit more on the early downs in this game. And one of the things that I'm really interested in, so Jalen Daniels has been really good against play action this year or on play action this year. 79.5% completion rate on play action, 12.6 yards per attempt, that is bonkers, with 13

Starting point is 00:06:18 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions on play action so far this season. You look at what Kansas State, their defense has done against play action. Teams have gone 46 of 72 for 788 yards, five touchdowns, no picks. That's a little over 10 yards per attempt against them on play action with five touchdowns, no picks. So they haven't been great against play action this year. Jalen Daniels has feasted on play action. I think that's something interesting. One thing that I'm curious to get, you know, kind of your take on is I've been kind of looking at a lot of the stuff and like there are certain things like pro football focus rates K state is a bad pass rush team, but you look at something like sack rate and they're top 30 in the country.

Starting point is 00:07:00 So is the pass rush that K state is generating more blitz related? Is it more scheme related? Or what are they doing there? Because Jalen has actually been really good against the blitz so before this season. From what I've seen, it's more scheme-related. And for the first time, and quite some time, they moved to a four-man front. That's something that they didn't have in the past, but they did so far this season, although they're not getting, they're not doing a lot of blitzes. And I think that has to do with the fact that they're still trying to trust that secondary. I think it's so I'm going to have to lean towards the scheme thing. I don't think it's a blitz related thing, at least from the eye test, I don't see them blitzing a lot.

Starting point is 00:07:37 Derek, I really don't. And I think that's actually been an issue for the defense. Now, I feel like that's been kind of shifted the last couple weeks, and I don't have the stats in front of me. So this, again, is just an eye test thing. But the last couple weeks, I have seen a lot more pressure from the defense, especially last week against TCU, which caused a lot of issues for Josh Hoover, probably arguably gave him his worst ever game as a TCU horn frog and got him a lot of turnover. So maybe they're on the difference, the other end of this one.

Starting point is 00:08:05 Maybe they continue that in from the by week against this game in Kansas. and they continue that stretch, and they add more pressure, something that, you know, of course, you're going to want to have that with a whole bunch of energy as well in Lawrence. Yeah, the other thing that I'm kind of looking at in this one is there have been so many games in this series where special teams has been the big bugaboo, bugaboo has been the Achilles heel for Kansas. You look at ESPNSP Plus coming into this game, Kansas is actually 11th in the country on special teams. I think KStates like 32nd or something like that. This is the best kicker KU's had, this is the best punter KU's had.

Starting point is 00:08:40 Just by like the amount of pure punt returns that they're getting with Tate and Aggie back there. And from a kick return perspective, they've had a kick return touchdown with the Manuel Henderson. If ever they're going to beat K State, I would think a year like this where they actually have the special teams kind of down pat would make a little bit of sense. Man, would not shock me in the slightest if a special teams play, whether in the positive aspect or negative aspect is what changes this one. earlier in the season, I mean, right from the get-go, the reason why we're continuing to talk about Dylan Edwards over and over again, you muff that punt on the first play of the game and you never get or Dylan Edwards in on the offense.

Starting point is 00:09:18 There's been a couple other muff punts or kick-return issues. But then on the flip side, there's been some great things for Kansas State when it comes to the kicking game as well. Luis Rodriguez comes over from, you know, Juco levels and is basically turning into this great kicker. And then you also have other players that have been good at the kick return. We got a couple kick-return touchdowns. this season. But it's it's hot or cold for Kansas State. So I'm with you. You seem like you got a lot of

Starting point is 00:09:43 good special teams on your side, but there's been hot or cold when it comes to Kansas State. Would not shock me in the slightest if the way this game ends or the reason this game finishes in a certain aspect is because of one special teams play. That's how close I think this one's going to be. All right. Let's get to how Kansas State needs to come out on top of this one. First, this episode of Locked on Jayhawks, Locked on Kansas State crossover, is brought to you by Quo. One of the tools that helps make a huge difference for business owners is Quo, formerly open phone. It's the same great business phone system you've heard us talk about here before on the show, just with a new name.

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Starting point is 00:11:49 Visit fanduel.com to download the fanduel app today. FanDuel, the official sportswork partner of the Locked on podcast network. Okay, Christian. So I guess real quick, as we get into how Kansas State wins this game, we probably should mention in the injury report, kind of the big one there that we've talked about earlier this week is Dylan Edwards. He's officially listed as out. So this isn't even kind of a questionable thing.

Starting point is 00:12:15 Like, what's it going to? He's just out of the game. And one of the things that I find very interesting there is the fact that K State has been a very explosive run team. They've had a lot of run stuffed. Kansas stuffs are a lot of runs defensively, but Kansas also gives up a lot of explosive runs. K-State has a lot of explosive runs. Well, Dylan Edwards is the most explosive runner for K-State.

Starting point is 00:12:35 So how do the Wildcats still win this game without a key player like Dylan Edwards? Yeah, if we would have played this game a month ago, I would think that we are in big trouble because of the missing of Dylan Edwards. That's how it felt like when the game against Arizona, you know, the game against Army, you know, all of those games that didn't have Dylan Edwards and they were still trying to find an identity with that run game. For the record, I'm going to put that out here. I think we've seen the last Dylan Edwards in a Kansas State uniform.

Starting point is 00:13:02 I don't have any insider information, but he's only dressed for four games. And that's the magic number when it comes to redshirting, just the way that this season has been. I just don't see him coming back. That's just how I am. But again, I don't have any insider there, but might as well just throw that out there as a little thought bubble. I think the running game is huge, though. As I mentioned, if this was a month ago, I'd be nervous. but after watching them two weeks ago before the buy against TCU, Joe Jackson finally got it

Starting point is 00:13:29 going. He got his first 100-yard game. It's a career high. The week before that, he got about 67 yards. They didn't give them the ball enough, though, was still averaging like six yards per carry. I think he was finally getting going to the point to where you could actually start trusting that running game again. The offensive line has been dreadful when it comes to run blocking all season long. They've started to get better, especially last week against TCU. So I feel a lot more comfortable about the run game, something that I have had huge concerns with all season long. They've really struggled when it comes to, you know, getting big plays. Even with, you know, even with Dylan Edwards in there, there is really only one good game

Starting point is 00:14:07 that Dylan Edwards had, and that was against UCF. Other than that, there's only been a few explosive run plays. Avery Johnson's had a few. Jace Brown had one for a touchdown against Arizona to open up the second half. He was in the backfield for like a little wildcat action, but they haven't used that since. But since then, there hasn't been a lot of energy with the running game until last week with Joe Jackson. So I think they've got to continue that. If they can do that and at least establish some sort of confident run game to open up the play action,

Starting point is 00:14:36 to open up some big threats down there for Avery Johnson to throw to Jace Brown, who eventually always seems to make at least one big play per game. I think that is huge for Kansas State winning the game. Yeah. And the flashing the stats on YouTube, you might have seen the offensive line run push for Kansas. Kansas State ranking in the 90s. It always is interesting, too. If you look at the explosive numbers on this website, the explosive numbers not as

Starting point is 00:14:59 great for K-State, but if you look at game on paper, they're really good. So just kind of different ways, different people, you know, different yardage of what you're counting as an explosive play rate, if you are curious on that. Now, the one thing that I think scares me the most, honestly, from Kansas perspective, is are they going to be able to slow down Avery Johnson in terms of running the football? Like I think Gavry Johnson at this point is kind of a, I don't know, to me, I view him as a pedestrian passer. Like he's done a good job avoiding interceptions. The yard per attempt number is very low nationally.

Starting point is 00:15:31 The completion percentage is very low nationally. But again, when you combine, you're doing a good job with the touchdown to interception ratio, when you combine the ability to run the football. And in a game like this, a rivalry, I could see him getting 15 to 20 carries, which to me makes him even more dangerous. That's something we've seen Kansas with struggle over. the Lance Leipold years, that is a big worry for me that Avery Johnson is going to have like 100 yards rushing. Yeah, if you want to go on historical trends, if he gets 15 yards or 15 carries in

Starting point is 00:15:59 this game, it's over for the Jayhawks, just based on historical trends. If he has 10 or more carries in a game since he's started, they are 8 and 3. Kansas State is, but if he has more than 13, Kansas State has never lost. They're 3 and 0. So just put that in perspective. If you want to try and slow down this offense, you've got to make sure Avery Johnson doesn't run the football at least less than 10 times to give yourself a good chance just based on historic trends now obviously that can play into whatever you want to but it's just the numbers that we've seen so far that has been a huge question mark for kansas state all season long he started off this season when they were not performing well not running the football i think they

Starting point is 00:16:36 had a little bit to do with the fact that they had no dylan edwards there was uncertainty with the offense they didn't want to make they didn't want to get him hurt as well and also be dealing with Dylan Edwards out. Now I don't think they have a one, the time to even think about that or the excuse because they know Dylan Edwards is out for the foreseeable future and maybe for the rest of this season. They can't let that happen. They can't let that dictate their offense. Avery Johnson has to run this football. And I'm going to say at least 10 times for them to be able to win this football game. He's got to be able to be not afraid to take hits too. That's also been a narrative that we've heard over the last couple weeks sliding a little bit too early a couple

Starting point is 00:17:12 times actually before the sticks and it put them in certain situations that have been tough to come out of most of them have been in favor of kansas state but when you're in a rivalry game those fourth and ones seem a little bit longer don't they yeah no they certainly do and i i guess we've made it this long in this episode without me like talking about the big thing to me is is always in the series it feels like k state plays clean or cleaner football than kansas it's not always perfect but like they're playing cleaner football and the deadly mistakes are usually on Kansas's end. Like last year, you have the kickoff that the Kansas fields at the one yard line goes out of bounds and it leads to a safety and you end up losing

Starting point is 00:17:52 the game by two points. You think of the fumble at the end of the game that gives Kansas State you know, the win essentially. You think of a couple years ago the dropped punt by Trevor Wilson. You think of the dropped pick six that might have put the game away by Rich Miller. Three years ago, 2022, there were some special teams gaff early in the game. And like, we can go on and on and on and all the mistakes that Kansas makes in this series. And that is what is highlighted to me of like, I don't even know how to preview a game that way because I can't preview a game and be like, well, what folly do you expect this time? Right. It's just kind of the unexpected. But I do think it's at least worth mentioning that like that typically is something if somebody is going to make a

Starting point is 00:18:34 deathly mistake, that is usually something that is going in case they's favor in this series. Yeah. And if you were looking at. at it from that lens, that perspective, I would argue that it's the worst time for you to face Kansas State because that last week, that game before the buy, I should say not last week, two weeks ago, you know what I mean, before when Kansas State beat TCU, they had multiple defensive turnovers. Some of them scored on those plays, including two pick sixes, capitalizing on mistakes of TCU. So if you're thinking that, man, that could probably most likely happen again when it comes to the Sunflower Showdown. That usually doesn't work in the favor of the

Starting point is 00:19:10 Jayhawks, that's a bad time to face a Kansas State team who is finally starting to find, dare I say, an identity of this defense, something that they struggled for, especially in the secondary after losing multiple players to the NFL this past April. One thing, one more thing I'll say before we head out here if I had to say what Kansas State has to do to win this game. And I think this is absolutely crucial. This might be the number one priority in this one is not have third and forever. I mean, the third down play calling from Matt Wells has been atrocious this year.

Starting point is 00:19:42 And a lot of it has to be the fact because it's third and five or third and beyond five. And they're making play calls that are before the sticks or throwing the football. That's only four yards. And they're not making that first down play. They're not giving themselves a chance to make that happen. And that hasn't been corrected at all in any of these games so far this season. And it hasn't shown any progress that it's going to. You know, this is going to the second buy week for Kansas State.

Starting point is 00:20:07 And I don't know if that has been fixed. So if they get themselves, if Kansas gets Kansas State in a third and long situation, you can probably expect a punt. You could probably expect that turnover on downs or you could probably expect them to maybe go to the field goal because they've been horrendous when it comes to third down and long conversions. It's funny you say all this because Kansas all year has really struggled at third and long defense. So we have the opposite of the, we have the very movable force versus. versus the very stoppable objects.

Starting point is 00:20:36 That'll be an interesting one. Matt Wells is saying, so you're telling me there's a chance. That's right. All right. Let's get into our thoughts on the spread, the over under, little predictions.

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Starting point is 00:21:16 impossible becomes irrelevant. Mazda move and be moved. So Christian, the spread in this one is this is our locked-on crossover episode. He's Christian Rowe. I'm Derek Johnson and locked on Kansas State Wildcats, locked on Jayhawks. Again, check it out anywhere you get your podcasts, including on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:21:35 and check out Lockdown College Football, too, who will be breaking this one down along with plenty of other games this weekend. But the spread on the game is Kansas minus two and a half. It's the first time Kansas has been favored during the streak of losses here. The over-under is sitting at 56 and a half. Do you have any, I don't know, any play or any lean on either of those? Or do those feel, I don't know, about right or very difficult to imagine for you either way? Man, they feel perfect.

Starting point is 00:22:03 And that's what I hate about it. So, like, personally, I'm not touching this one just because I think they're perfect. I have the 3027 final. I think Kansas State still wins the game. They hold on to the streak. But that's my thought here. I absolutely think it could be the complete opposite way. As we were talking about a special teams play, 3027, a special teams play definitely comes in here.

Starting point is 00:22:22 But that's a two and a half point favorite for Kansas State. So obviously, I would take Kansas State at the money line. If I was going to play this one, I'm not. And that's right at the 57 points and 56.5. So I think it's perfect, personally, which is a really tough line to play. Vegas knows what they're talking about this week. But when I look at these spreads, I don't know how you think when I'm doing, you know, when I'm betting and I see especially a rivalry, when I see the home team less than a three point favorite to me,

Starting point is 00:22:49 that's almost even. Yeah. And I would almost like, I think the play is if you are going to take Kansas State in this one, I would almost rather take the money line than plus the two and a half, honestly. I think that's kind of the play if you want to do it. I am going to do the unthinkable. I said, you know, all offseason, I said all beginning of the season, I'm not going to pick KU to beat KSate. I don't care.

Starting point is 00:23:08 I'm going to do it right now. I'm picking KU to win this game. Now, Kansas has scored exactly 27 points in each of the last three meetings with Kansas State. I think they got across 30 if they want to win this game. In fact, you had it at 30 to 27. That was your prediction, right? So I think they need across 30. I actually could see this being a game that both teams are in the 30s because I think there have been some mistakes by the KU defense just with

Starting point is 00:23:31 lining things up and with how they approach certain run games and sometimes it's even basic runs that they're just crossed up like the D lines doing one thing, the linebackers are doing another thing. And I could see K State scoring some points. I think Kansas is going to have an opportunity to score points too in terms of, you know, I think they're going to be able to hit some explosives on K State on that end because they give up some fair amount this season. I think it was fourth percentile nationally and explosive play rate defense. So I think this, I'm going to go Kansas 34 to 31 as the final score. So I would honestly, like the one I would be more comfortable betting would actually be the over among either of those two. Because I, you know, I feel silly

Starting point is 00:24:11 picking KU because it's probably going to be egg on my face at the end of this again. But I don't care. I've hyped myself up into into doing it. And that's a fun thing. I will say like one little tidbit here, Leishon Williams is questionable coming into the game. Certainly a good thing, Daniel Hyshaw is back for KU to have another running back in there. We'll see what ends up happening there. But Christian, where can everybody find your work and get ready from the Kansas state side of things for the Sunflower Showdown on Saturday? It's going to be wild. And if you have to get egg on your face, at least you know what it feels like because it'll be the 17th straight time, right? No, I'm just kidding. I think this is going to be really good

Starting point is 00:24:43 better. It doesn't make it any better. I have the utmost respect. I just probably doesn't sound good for being a rival. I have the utmost respect for Kansas fans. And I think this can be a really good game. And I'm excited for this one. And I'm excited for us to do crossovers when basketball season starts too i know that we're just in that media day phrase right or that phase right now so that'll be a lot of fun but yeah you can find us on locked on kansas state anywhere listen to podcast audio youtube you name it and you can find me on twitter x at christian s row yeah real quick uh two big quotes that we're circulating this week one comes from desmond pernell kansas state linebacker yeah we've got better guys i feel like we're going to go out there and

Starting point is 00:25:19 dominate there was that quote the other quote that has been circulating from a kansas state perspective. Jerome Tang said that they have the best, what is it, the best point guard, the best athlete and the best shooter in the country. Which of those two quotes do you think is more realistic? Well, I'll tell you what. I just had an episode on this last night about Jerome Tangs. I don't know why he does this with the hype. I mean, come on. We haven't made the tournament in a couple years. I love it. I love the energy. But, man, if I had to, if I had to go right now, pick one of them. I do like this new roster with Kansas State's basketball. So I'm believing in the hike i don't know if i'm going that far as jerome tang but i'm believing in that but i don't

Starting point is 00:25:56 know i think pernell needs to be sit down in in the in the office and say why are you giving them bait right now we don't need to do that so but overall i'm really excited for this game and i'm excited for this basketball season as well all right so you can check out christian there i'm derrick johnson give me a follow at d johnson radio or at l o underscore j hawks and again same thing with locked on jahawks anywhere you're podcasted on youtube as well that'll do it for this episode again locked on college football's got you covered for the whole scope of games this weekend as well and we'll see you next time on our next crossover edition or locked on jhawks locked on wildcats whatever you're listening to right here on the locked on podcast network

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CROSSROADS: Kansas and K-State CLASH in MUST-WIN Battle | Can Wildcats Contain Jalon Daniels?

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