Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CRUCIAL: Can Jalon Daniels, Kansas Run Game Lead Jayhawks to Bowl Eligibility at Arizona Wildcats?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Can the Jayhawks figure it out and get to bowl eligibility? We break down how Kansas can come away with the victory at Arizona. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson here? This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it to your first listen every day. And thank you so much of the everydayers catching all of our content here,

Starting point is 00:00:33 whether you're finding us on YouTube where you can like and subscribe or anywhere your audio side of things with the podcast. We've been breaking down KU, North Carolina, breaking down KU Arizona. And on today's episode, we're breaking down the keys for Kansas to take down Arizona on the road and get to bowl eligibility. We're going to break down how KU covers, how KU wins, players to watch that are going to be important for both sides of the aisle here.

Starting point is 00:00:56 And then we'll finish up with a little Fandual Friday on today's episode of the show. It's still right there. How does KU cover the spread? So right now, Kansas is about a touchdown underdog against Arizona. And obviously, there's a little bit of a difference of how you win the game versus how you cover the spread. Basically, can they keep it close? I think the first thing you're kind of looking at here, if they can at least keep it close, give themselves a shot, you have to, I think, win the turnover battle here, right? You're an underdog on the road. It's a game where, I mean, it's not quite a coin flip. I say coin flip because, you know, when it's a close-ish game, I think that makes it

Starting point is 00:01:39 certainly a little bit more of a coin-flippy situation. But it is one where it's like it's not crazy if you win the game or if you cover the spread, I guess. And so if you win the turnover battle, I think that just inherently tells me you should at least be able to keep this close. You look at Arizona, they have 12 interceptions this year. You only have four as your defense. So they're tripling you up at least in that one category in terms of the, you know, forcing

Starting point is 00:02:04 interceptions, forcing some turnover side of the ball. That is a strength for them coming into this game. So if you're able to neutralize that strength and then win the turnover battle, I think that at least keeps you a little bit close in this one. I would also say Jalen Daniels plays well. Duh, the quarterback plays well for Kansas. That would go a long way in them covering the spread here. But when you look at Arizona going back to the interceptions, this is a game where, like,

Starting point is 00:02:28 If Jalen Daniels, you know, doesn't have the best game in the world when they're playing, I don't know, Cincinnati or Oklahoma State or something, like that stat sheet or the impact on that probably looks a little bit different than it would in this game because if you have a bad game against a defense that is basically a top five national pass defense and gets a lot of interceptions, a bad game against some teams might be one or two interceptions and lower completion percentage. A bad game against Arizona is you're under 200 yards. passing, or maybe even less, because I think they've only given up, like, one, 200-yard passer. You're under, like, 150 yards passing.

Starting point is 00:03:04 You're under 50% completion. You've thrown, like, three interceptions. So that's where you need Jayland Daniels to at least play well in this game, to, I think, kind of keep it close. I would also say the offensive line doesn't get dominated. Like, that's something that in the Texas Tech game led to them being blown out. The offensive line was dominated. And then I would also say, like, the defense makes at least a few plays. I'm not going to come up here and be like, oh, if the defense can hold Arizona to 17 points,

Starting point is 00:03:28 Because I just don't feel like that's realistic. I don't feel like that is something that I'm expecting to happen in this game. Can you at least make a few plays? Like, Kansas defense is going to give up points. I think we've seen that at this point in time, especially when you're going up at least against the competent offense, which Arizona certainly is. They're going to give up some big pass plays.

Starting point is 00:03:44 They're going to give up some head scratching, third and longs, probably. They're going to give up points. Can you at least make a few big plays? It doesn't feel like they've been making some of those big plays recently. Like, not only are they getting torched, they're not really forcing the turnovers. They're not really like, you look at the 2024 defense for KU. Like statistically right now, if you look at, I don't know, points a lot per game or ESP and SP Plus or like, where they rank in some of these areas, it's not too dissimilar from where they are right now to where they were. For instance, last year or even in 2023, I think that one may be slightly better.

Starting point is 00:04:18 But one of the big differences, like last year at least they were getting, you know, you'd get an interception for Mello Dots. And you'd get a pick six from Kobe Bryant. it. You'd get a strip sack from, I don't know, somebody, Dean Miller, maybe, I guess, who's still on this team, but is now being basically used as an outside linebacker. It just feels like you're not getting many of those big plays, right, in Africa. I think three turnovers forced in the last five games, and whether that's getting a sack that ends a drive, whether it's getting that interception, that maybe it is a pick six, and then they go back down right away and they score touchdown, but at least you broke up

Starting point is 00:04:51 the continuity of the game. You got some points yourself. I think the defense needs to make a few plays in this one for you to cover the game. For you to win the game, though, take that next step and earn the victory here. I don't know if I've ever been able to use this for KU. I probably could have used it at some point during this season. So I'm excited that I get to use this for a talking point here. A special team swinging play. Usually when we talk about that with KU where I have to or had to in the past,

Starting point is 00:05:22 It was not a good thing for KU. But I look at this right now. Arizona is number 127 in the country on special teams efficiency on ESPN, FPI. They are number 109 in the country on ESPNSP Plus in special teams. Kansas is fourth on FPI. They are eighth on ESPNSP Plus. So basically consensusly, you would say top 10 special teams by ESPN's main two metrics, Arizona is not top 100 is what you would say.

Starting point is 00:05:51 that on paper means Kansas should have an advantage. How does that advantage play out over a game, right? I mean, if you don't force them into any puns, if your defense can't get off the field, well, then that's not an advantage for you. If your defense can't hold them to field goals, that's not an advantage for you, right? So it's like there are certain things you have to do to force them into the special team's plays. But we talked about the other day, there's about a six and a half net yard per punt difference between Kansas and Arizona, which, you know, it doesn't sound like that big of a difference over one play,

Starting point is 00:06:20 but let's say both teams, I think the example I said was both teams punt twice. What if both teams end up punting three times in this game? Just on average, over a six punt difference, that's a 36-yard difference in the game. Like that is, that is, you know, think about that. That's three first downs. That's almost four first downs difference over the course of a game from just the punting, right? And then you get into like, okay, well, what if KU makes a field goal that Arizona doesn't, right? What if KU makes a 42-yarder and Arizona misses it?

Starting point is 00:06:48 Like, that's a six-point swing. right there. Maybe it's a kick return touchdown, which we've seen KU have with Emmanuel Henderson, and he's gotten close, I think, two other times to busting another one. What if this is a game where KU gets a big special team swing on the road? I mean, I think of when Kansas State beat Arizona, not this year. Obviously, they lost, but in 2024, they got a big special teams play, and they dominated the whole game. But, yeah, I think that is something that they could lead to Kansas winning the game. I'd also say they pick up where they left off running the football.

Starting point is 00:07:18 Kansas has not been as dominant running the football this year. They've been fine at it overall, but they've had games where they haven't been able to do it at all. And this is one where you're coming off a really good running game against Oklahoma State, but a big part of that is just Oklahoma State is not very good. Arizona has not been a great run defense so far the season, but they're better than Oklahoma State. And with Arizona's past defense, if you become one-dimensional, it's going to be tough sledding. Is this a game where you can establish the run and win? Because you look at last year, like you look at the Colorado game, Kansas,

Starting point is 00:07:48 one. They won that game with running football. They just road graded Colorado. You look at the Iowa State game, yes, Jalen Daniels was really good in the Iowa State game, but it was all set up by the running game. And that's what Kansas needs in a game like this. They need the running game to kind of take over to a level we haven't really seen outside of maybe the Oklahoma State game. But again, it's hard to know, is that just the opponent? And then I would say this. The past defense has their best game. It doesn't mean this has to be the lowest pass total you allow. In fact, that's probably not going to happen when you look at some of the earlier season games. I just mean in terms of when you factor in the competition, when you factor in a good

Starting point is 00:08:23 starting quarterback, you're going up against a good receiving core you're going up against. If this can be graded on a scale or graded on a curve, KU's best passing game where they're at least forcing an interception at two or two, where they're at least, you know, not just giving up wide open receptions all day long, then I think that's another way you win the game. But that one feels like the least realistic of the ones that we've kind of talked about so far. Let's get to our players to watch and then Fandual Friday. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by DoorDash.

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Starting point is 00:09:38 he has delivered to the max so far for KU and he's been out on the court, 24 points in the first half against Louisville. Again, super efficient game against Green Bay. Can he do it again against North Carolina? And just like Darren Peterson's been delivering for Kansas, DoorDash Streaks deliver your Saturdays. With DoorDash streaks, save every Saturday you order, stack it up all season, and you could save up to $250, including $100 in DoorDash credits. Order this Saturday, keep the streak alive, fuel your game day only with DoorDash. Terms-applied promo period through November 18th. Thanks for joining us on this episode of the show.

Starting point is 00:10:14 Don't forget check out our KU North Carolina preview. We also have a crossover episode with Isaac Shade of Locked on Tar Heels. And we had our locked on KU preview for the Arizona game. This is kind of an extension to that with our keys to the game. And now players to watch. Let's start with the Kansas Jayhawks, players to watch for KU. We're going to start with a linebacker. And that would be Trey Lathen.

Starting point is 00:10:36 I was looking at some of the different coverage numbers. I guess you would say so far for basically the back, I guess I say seven, but sometimes KU plays three man fronts and five man front so it gets sicky. But basically linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties. And Trey Lathen actually ranks number two in the entirety of the Big 12 for players with minimum 100 coverage snaps, which is, you know, a fair amount, but it's not like that big amount. There were like over 30 that qualified.

Starting point is 00:11:08 he's number two in the Big 12 for coverage linebackers. So he's been really good in coverage, and that could be helpful against obviously a good quarterback and Noah Fafita. But also, he's just been really solid all year long for KU. I got to be honest, I don't know why. I thought Trey Lathen was a senior. Apparently he's a junior. So now I'm getting even more geeked up under the idea that like, okay, you need to do everything

Starting point is 00:11:32 in your power, pay this dude whatever he needs to make sure he comes back for another year. because as much as I think Bengali Kamara has had the biggest flash plays for KU of the linebacker position and maybe of the entire defense this year, like the ceiling plays, the highlight plays have been as good as anybody. I think Trey Lathen's probably been KU's best overall defender and maybe their most consistent defender this year. He's been so good at the linebacker position this year for KU. And I think, you know, I just kind of want to give him his praise in this game.

Starting point is 00:12:06 And obviously, it's a position that, you know, matters each and every week. And as KU is trying to win one on the road, like Trey Lathen, having kind of a monster takeover game would certainly go a long way into doing that. Yeah, 60 tackles, one and a half sacks, three past deflections. Our next guy is Daniel Hyshaw. So Arizona, their defense is just in the 28th percentile nationally. So basically in the bottom quarter, just outside of it, in EPA per play allowed versus the run. So there are runs to be. had against this Arizona defense.

Starting point is 00:12:38 They're primarily using like a 3-3-5 defense, which, you know, a lot of teams, both in the country and then the Big 12 are doing it. Obviously, that's something that, you know, we think of like Iowa State all the time is kind of doing it. And so that means more defensive backs out there. And then kind of the evolution of where football has gone has been, hey, even though you have more defensive backs on the field, the natural inclination would be, okay, well, I should be able to like run the football all over you.

Starting point is 00:13:05 you have an extra DB on the field as opposed to having an extra defensive lineman or an extra linebacker out there. And that's been kind of the evolution of football. The defenses have figured out a way to still be able to slow down the run or stop the run even without having necessarily that extra beef on the field all at once. And that's something with Arizona where I am interested because the EPA per play numbers look not great against their defense, but the York per carry numbers actually look pretty good. So is it just the sack yardage has really negated that?

Starting point is 00:13:36 Or is it just that because the success rate's not very good against, too? Like, is it just they're giving up the key plays running the football? I don't entirely know. But either way, Highshaw is going to have against a past defense that's top five in the country. I want to see High Sean, Lee Sean Williams have 30 plus combined carries and kind of take over this game. I think KU's Avenue to winning is High Sean Williams have big games for KU. And it does feel like Daniel Highshaw is playing his best ball at this point of time. And then Bryson Canty would be the other one.

Starting point is 00:14:02 So I don't know how much Canty's going to play. He's been, I don't know, like some of the recent games maybe been like, okay, he's going to play 20 snaps or something like that. He had two really good catches in the last game against Oklahoma State. Obviously, he had the fade route touchdown, kind of the back shoulder. He had that kind of deep ball catch that Jalen kind of threw it up for him one on one. And I think that's the biggest difference with Canty and these other receivers and why I would like to see Canty start to play even more,

Starting point is 00:14:26 that he provides this level that like L.J. Arnold, Quentin Skinner, and Luke Grimm had for Jalen Daniels, where Cam Pickett and Emmanuel Henderson bring more yard after catch to the table. Canty brings the possession receiver, I'm going to win the jump ball. I'm going to win the one-on-one ball. And we saw Jayland Daniels like to throw those on occasion to some of those guys and have some success doing that. And that's what they've kind of been missing, I think, in the receiving core. I would like to see him, I think when you look at the snaps, like Pickett, Henderson, and Canty.

Starting point is 00:14:54 Those need to be your top three, I think, at this point in time. And I think Canty, I would like to see him continually be targeted and him be targeted more in this game than moving forward than he has been in his earlier games because I think he can be kind of a game changer for that secondary for KU and when you're playing a really good past defense like this team has you're going to have to hit some like okay think back to the game that KU won in Ames a couple years ago um against the 335 defense that had good coverage just remember all the tight throws that Jason being hit where he was basically taking shots the guy one on one whether it was Doug Amelia making a great grab or you know LJ Arnold or quentin skinner at the

Starting point is 00:15:29 sideline getting on Sports Center, it was kind of, hey, possession receivers go make tough catches. And I think Canty's going to need to do that at least three times, two times against Arizona to maybe help you move the sticks on some third downs. For Arizona, some of their players to watch, we're going to start with Noah Fafita, their quarterback. He's averaging eight yards per attempt, 24 total touchdowns, four interceptions, top 30 in total QBR. He's just a good all-around player. And we've seen Kansas struggle with even average quarterbacks this year. So that'll be kind of a test for them. Dalton Johnson is a really good safety. He's kind of more of strong safety. 84 PFF grade for Dalton Johnson this year. He has an 89 coverage grade. And I also think of

Starting point is 00:16:11 him being a good run stopper because he has 59 tackles this year, which is the team best to go with a sack, two interceptions, two pass deflections, and a fumble recovery. I think he's just a big time player. I really like Dalton Johnson's game and he'll be difficult for KU to deal with. Then JV. On Cole, I could have picked a bunch of defensive backs for Arizona. Arizona actually has going back to some of those coverage numbers, Arizona has two of the top four coverage corners in the Big 12, according to PFF coverage grades. Again, minimum 100 coverage snaps. Cole's number two in the entire league. He has an 84.6 coverage grade there. Also has a team I, three interceptions on a team that gets a lot of interceptions. He also has two past

Starting point is 00:16:48 deflections. He, again, you could really pick like four or five Arizona defense backs. I wound up picking two here, but Cole has my respect and he has a nine or a 44, excuse me, a 44, four NFL pass rating against. He has been excellent so far this season. Player matchups. We're going to go with Arizona's offensive tackles against KU's defensive ends. For Arizona, their left tackles, Ty Buchanan, their right tackle is Tristan Bounds. They both have over 72 PFF grade.

Starting point is 00:17:15 Both of those are the top two on the team. For the KU defense, Dean Miller, Leroy Harris, Dack, Brinkley, Justice Finkeley, Alex Bray. Those are their five main defensive ends that are going to rotate. They're talented. They've had some good games. They've had some good moments, but it just doesn't feel like everything's come together for the group as a whole or, I don't know, like it feels like Harris had a good game against Oklahoma State. I want to see it all come together for KU as a whole there. And I think

Starting point is 00:17:38 some of that is a little bit like, I don't know that the five man down fronts where those defensive ends are having to drop into coverage. It's like, remember when Bob Sutton was the defensive coordinator for the chiefs and he dropped like Justin Houston or Tom Bali into coverage and then they'd get burned and it was like, why did you do that? You have these premier pass rushers. Let them rush the passer. I would like to see K. you'll be in more four-man fronts, or if you're going to be in just a, if you're just going to be rushing with three guys, I would prefer that the extra guys in coverage not be Dean Miller, who's a defensive end. I'd prefer it to be just an extra lineback or safety or

Starting point is 00:18:12 corner or something. That's just my opinion. But you need to find more pressure. And it's going to be harder off the edges because that's where Arizona's strength is on the offensive line. But if you can find pressure off the edges, then you're basically saying, hey, our strength on the defense is the defensive tackle spot. And their weakness on the offensive line is more to the interior. So you like your matchup there. If we can win the matchups on the outside too, maybe it'll be a long day for Noah Fafita. And then I would say on the other side of the ball, Cam Pickett or whatever KU slot, right? Sometimes we see Henderson, maybe somebody else rotates in versus Trayden Stukes. So Pickett has three games this year or 60 or more receiving yards,

Starting point is 00:18:51 but he also has five games with 31 yards or less. It's been very boom or bust so far this year there. they need a boom game here stukes though not going to be an easy guy to do it on he has an 86 pro football focus grade an 83 coverage grade he's their main kind of slot defender he'll play some you know box safety slot corner whatever um over 300 snaps between slot corner and box safety he's just a really good player as are all those other guys in the arizona secondary room all let's finish up here with a little fan duel Friday this is locked on jhawks Love LOJ is brought to you by Supply House. When the opening whistle blows on a new repair,

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Starting point is 00:20:25 You can also check out Locked on College basketball. I'll get you ready, and we have plenty of content up there for the KU North Carolina game. All right, so Fandual Friday for you here. KU is getting five and a half points. The over under is 57 and a half over at Fandu, at least at time of recording for the KU Arizona game. This is one where I kind of like the under. I don't know. I don't think I would actually bet it just from a standpoint of like, it would not surprise me if any game.

Starting point is 00:20:52 the KU defense gives up 40 points with some of the struggles in the past coverage. So for that perspective, I'm not going to like it. But if I was leaning, I'm leaning under from the standpoint of like, okay, KU might not be able to throw it super well against Arizona. You're going to have to rely on the running game more. It might speed up the clock a little more. I make it tough to score quickly if you're KU. So that would be my lean there.

Starting point is 00:21:14 I don't really have a lean on the five and a half or not. As far as some of the different player props, let's take a look at some of these. So passing props, no Fafita is it two. 250 and a half. Jalen A's only a 205 and a half, but that makes sense. Arizona's only given up one 200-yard passer so far this season. So do you go the under on Jalen or is Jalen one of the best quarterbacks that they've faced so far this season? Like if you look at, you know, who Arizona has faced so far, it's like, okay, they've faced Avery Johnson who certainly made the KU defense look not good, but that's, you know, been a lot of cases with the passing games against so far this year.

Starting point is 00:21:52 I don't know, like Rocco backed through for over 200. Do you think Jalen Daniels? I think Jalen Daniels is better than Rocco backed personally. I don't know. Like maybe this is. Maybe this is BYU. You know, Bear Bachmeyer has been good so far this season. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:22:09 That's kind of an interesting question. So do without what you will. I'm going to be avoiding it because, yeah, that's just a really good passing defense. You can get plus 134 on two plus passing touchdowns. I almost rather take that than the yards. just like, what if they just have to pass in the red zone? Receiving yards can't pick at 35 and a half, as we mentioned, it's boom or bust. I think you're better off if you want to bet picket, do the picket all receiving yards

Starting point is 00:22:31 because he's either going to go under the 31 or the 35 and a half most likely or it's going, and now that I said this, it's going to be right in the middle. But like I said, three games of 60 more yards, five games with 31 or less. So are you better off just betting the alt line 60 plus yards at plus 225 if you think he's going to go over? Who am I to say? Emmanuel Henderson's a 46 and a half. You have Bowden Groon at 27 and a half.

Starting point is 00:22:53 Feels like he's kind of faded the last couple weeks after may have been that like 14 catch game the other day. And then you look at the rushing props in this one. Jalen Daniel's 36 and a half. Daniel Hyshaw, 66 and a half for KU. You can actually Kansas total rushing yards. And this would be the one that I would have a play on. Kansas total rushing yards is 170 and a half. If Kansas wants to be in this game, that number needs to be over.

Starting point is 00:23:17 I think it needs to be in the 200s. I would be comfortable betting that number. I think also if you wanted to, like, so you can get Kansas on the money line at plus 166. You can bet Kansas to have 200 plus rushing yards at plus 178. With how good Arizona's past defense is, is there a world where they win this game where they don't rush for 200 more yards? So I guess what I'm saying is, are you better betting Kansas to rush for 200 plus yards at plus 178 than Kansas money line at plus 166? And then you also have the added bonus of, I mean, there's a chance to rush for 202 and still we're. lose because the defense can't stop the Fita.

Starting point is 00:23:52 So I would almost be betting like one of those two or both of those. As far as touchdown props, high shaw is minus 200. I hate how juice down that is. So I wouldn't be touching that necessarily. Jalen Daniels plus 160. Maybe you get a rushing score in there. Here's the one that might be a good play. Leishon Williams plus 185.

Starting point is 00:24:08 Feels like he's been the goal line back a lot for KU this year. So I think those would be ones that I'm looking at. If you do want to get fancy with it, you know, you can you can get two touchdowns for Leishon Williams at plus 1100. But if we want to build a parlay as well, we'll go with Lyshawn Williams. Anytime touchdown, we'll go with Kansas over 170 and a half rushing yards. And then we'll do an alt line on Jalen Daniels passing yards. We'll just get him to throw for 150, put those together.

Starting point is 00:24:37 That's plus 398 over at Fandul. But I think my favorite ones there are over on the team rushing yards, maybe the alt 200 plus, and maybe Leishon Williams touchdown. All right, that'll do it for this episode of Lockdown, Jayhawks. You can find her show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. Check out our KU North Carolina content as well. Check out our KU preview against Arizona. We'll be back for postcast for after KU North Carolina and after KU Arizona right here with L.O.J.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - CRUCIAL: Can Jalon Daniels, Kansas Run Game Lead Jayhawks to Bowl Eligibility at Arizona Wildcats?

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