Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Darrion Williams vs RJ Luis vs Jamir Watkins - Who's the BEST PORTAL OPTION for Bill Self and Kansas

Starting point is 00:00:00 Darianne Williams, RJ Lewis, Jameer Watkins, who's the best option for KU still available in the transfer portal? You are locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked On Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first team every day. What's going on Derek Johnson here this is locked on Jayhawks thanks for making it your first listen every day thank you the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show we are free and available on our YouTube page or you can like and

Starting point is 00:00:35 subscribe to the show or anywhere that you get your podcast and on today's edition of locked on Jayhawks we're comparing and contrasting what I would say are the top three available portal wing targets still for KU, all of them still available in the portal, all of them testing the NBA draft process, comparing and contrasting Darian Williams from Texas Tech, RJ Lewis from St. John's, and Tamir Watkins from Florida State. And, you know, I've kind of said coming in like Williams is my guy, but maybe that changes a little bit if we do a little side by side head to head comparison between these guys. Before we get into any of that, this episode of the show is brought to you by game time download the game time app, create an account and use code locked on college for $20 off your first purchase with game time. Okay, so Darian Williams, RJ Lewis, Jameer Watkins, those are the three of the top available portal prospects

Starting point is 00:01:29 at any position, but KU at this point needs another wing and they need another splash play and maybe they end up going overseas for it, right? Maybe it is a guy like Dame Sarr, maybe it's somebody else overseas that we don't know about, right? But if they are gonna go via the portal, those are the three that kind of make the most sense.

Starting point is 00:01:45 And yes, there might be some other ones that we could get to as well. And we've had a deep dive on like Desmond Claude and stuff like that. But I think these are the three main ones. So I wanna compare and contrast them. And let's start comparing Darian Williams to RJ Lewis, because I think there are a lot of interesting,

Starting point is 00:02:01 like, I mean, some of the field goal percentages, the numbers are kind of similar in a lot of different ways. And I've kind of said that Williams is my guy and then I'd have Louis number two among these three coming in. But what if we compare and contrast? Okay, if we look at the points per game, Lewis has the advantage by about three points per game at St. John's now Williams had to play with the big 12 player of the year and JT Toppins that's going to lower some of the point per

Starting point is 00:02:23 game. The effective field goal percentage a little bit better for Williams, but you know, neither guy necessarily jumps off the page. It is interesting when you look at, you know, Williams at 49.5% effective field goal percentage because he's being judged in his percentile. According to his position, it's only in the 30th percentile. But Lewis who's being judged more as like a guard at a 48.3 effective in the 30th percentile. But Lewis, who's being judged more as like a guard

Starting point is 00:02:45 at a 48.3 effective vocal percentage 47th percentile. What that tells me is that if Williams, you view him more as a, you know, three, four, like guard, essentially on the offensive end, it actually is okay there. But he has a slight advantage anyway. Free throw attempt rate, Lewis gets to the free throw line at a much higher clip than Darian Williams, which makes sense because Lewis is the more athletic, more slashing type of the two, even though Williams is somebody who can play a little bit more booty ball, can play a little bit like with his back to the basket in the post-up, Lewis is going to slash more. Lewis also more rebounds per game, slightly better offensive rebound rate, decently better defensive rebound rate than Darian Williams when you're looking at Lewis. Now again, if you go back to

Starting point is 00:03:30 Darian Williams numbers for JT Toppin was there a little bit better on the glass, but still Lewis the better rebounder there. Now passing you would think Lewis who's more of the guard Williams again, both of them would play the three four for K you I think Lewis more of the three Williams more of the four, but you think of Lewis Moore is the guard and Williams actually is the better passer 3.6 assists per game. Lewis at two the assist rate is almost double for Darian Williams of what it is for RJ

Starting point is 00:03:58 Lewis and the assisted turnover rate is also almost double. Williams had almost a two assisted turnover rate. Lewis was slightly under one. So that's interesting there too. The steel rate is identical for the two players, the block rate actually better for Lewis again, bucking the trend, you would think the the more forward type would be a little bit better there in terms of block rate. But no, it's actually Lewis, Hakeem rate, you know, a little bit of an edge there for Lewis usage rate, both of them used it at a pretty

Starting point is 00:04:28 high amount and high volume there. Williams had the better offensive windshare numbers to better on off offensive rating, and also had the better offensive or a PM, which is kind of an overall metric used by CBB analytics. So if you're just looking at those numbers, you would say, okay, Williams better offensive player. And then with Lewis, more defensive wind shares better off defensive rating, better DRA PM. And so it kind of adds up to everything we've kind of thought and talked

Starting point is 00:04:59 about coming into this the idea that, okay, Lewis is the better athlete, he's the better defender. Williams is the better floor space or the better offensive player overall because of his shooting and his passing ability. And so I think the stats and going through them kind of back that up to a high degree. What if we get into some of the shooting numbers though, specifically, because I mentioned that and honestly, like, Lewis actually might come out slightly favorably in a vacuum here over Williams. But if we compare to the shooting, this is where Williams has his big

Starting point is 00:05:30 edge up. So field goal percentage is actually the same between the two. And again, if you're watching us on YouTube, we're showing a comparison of these, you might see the percentile like, it's funny Williams and Lewis again, same exact field goal percentage, but Williams is the 30th percentile, and Lewis is in the 71st. That's because it's being compared to their position. So Lewis is being compared to like other guards. Williams again is being compared to more forwards, which you know, some forwards get mixed in there who are power forwards who they might shoot 60% because they're taking all their shots at the rim, right. So again, if you view Williams is more of like,

Starting point is 00:06:04 a kind of wing guard type on the offensive end, which kind of is then, you. So again, if you view Williams is more of like, a kind of wing guard type on the offensive end, which kind of is then you know, you end up okay there. But anyway, two point percentage advantage for Williams almost 49% Lewis and 47 and a half percent at the rim. They're basically identical both a little over 63%, but a slight edge for Darian Williams in the paint is where Williams has a big advantage. And I think this comes from Williams having such good touch. But Williams was 45% in the paint, which is CBNB Analytics, refers to that as in the paint, but beyond four and a half feet from the rim, because within four and a half feet is at the rim. Lewis was only

Starting point is 00:06:41 32%. So much better like floater game and short mid range game for Williams. Lewis was only 32%. So much better like floater game and short mid range game for Williams. Lewis was actually the better mid range player though outside of the paint 36% Williams at 30%. I don't know how sticky that'll be year to year but then three point percentage also looks identical 34% for Williams 33.6% for Lewis. I think you get them in a bigger variety and off more volume from Williams, but that's shown in the three point attempt rate Williams 65th percentile for three point attempt rate Lewis in the 15th percentile for three point attempt rate and again, different positions that kind of skew that a little bit but above the break threes Williams at 33.6% Lewis is actually better at above the break at 35.2 Williams much better corner threes almost at 33.6%. Lewis is actually better at above the break at 35.2. Williams much better at corner threes, almost 38%. Lewis at about 31%. And then deep threes is

Starting point is 00:07:30 actually Lewis, 35%. Williams is only 21%, not the best deep three point shooter. But then free throw percentage, advantage Williams, and basically the overall shooting numbers, the effective field goal percentage, advantage Williams, the true shooting percentage, advantage Williams, the PER advantage Williams. But that said, a lot of those shooting numbers are at least similar. And there are a couple that go Lewis's way. But again, like I keep coming back to the idea that, you know, this kind of is what you're expecting.

Starting point is 00:08:00 I do think Lewis comes out overall, actually looking pretty good in this comparison between the two players and the fact that he does have the defensive edge and the athleticism edge. You know, you could make a real argument that Lewis should be the guy over Williams based on some of these numbers. I would still go with Williams preferably, but I will say after going over some of these numbers, I think it would be closer for me.

Starting point is 00:08:23 Maybe it would be a oneA, 1B situation. The reason I would still go Williams is that at this point in time, what are the things that are most important for KU? If they need more shooting, they need more shooting on this team, they need more floor spacing, they need more offense on this team.

Starting point is 00:08:38 I actually really liked the build they have on the defensive end of the court at this point, but they need more offense on the floor. I also liked the idea that, okay, we don't know exactly how much is Flory going to be able to give you as a back to the basket score. Or with Williams, if you get a smaller guard on him, if you get more of a 6'5'' wing or whatever,

Starting point is 00:08:57 he'll back you down in the post, and Bill Self will take advantage of that, that it gives you a little bit of that element on this year's team. So I would still lean Williams for the fit perspective. But, you know, I think there are a lot of advantages to having Lewis as well. All right, what if we compare Darian Williams to Jameer Watkins, we'll also do a

Starting point is 00:09:13 little comparison with Lewis to Watkins as well. This is Lockdown Jayhawks. Today's episode of LOJ is brought to you by Game Time, where you can get all sorts of tickets to you know, whether it's a sporting event, whether it's comedy, concerts, theater, if it's a nearby NBA playoff game or NHL playoff game, you can be a part of it without the stress of last minute taking hunting. Game Time makes it fast and easy to get playoff tickets, even when demand is sky high. Prices on the app actually go down as tip-off gets closer and their last minute deals can save you up to 60% off here's why you use game time their last minute deals allow you to save that 60% off by last minute for sports up to I should say concerts comedy theater and more and the all in pricing you can toggle means no surprise fees to check out what you see is what you pay. And you can it's great for baseball too. Because a

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Starting point is 00:11:07 basketball your second listen every day. Okay, what if we compare now from Darien Williams, RJ Lewis Darien Williams now to Jameer Watkins and Watkins if you don't remember we did a deep dive on him several weeks ago and thank you every day or so already caught that one from Florida State again like six seven athletic wing If you're talking about just size Watkins might be the the one to go with in terms of lengthiest Williams would probably be the most strongest and then Lewis I

Starting point is 00:11:38 Don't know Lewis or Watkins would be the most athletic. But anyway, Watkins more points per game than Williams. Effective illegal percentage again, slight advantage for Williams over Watkins their free throw attempt rate. The advantage goes to Jamir Watkins. And I think that might actually be a typo there in terms of how good the free throw attempt rate is for Watkins on this comparison, how it popped out anyway, rebounds per game slight advantage for Watkins. But when you look at rebound rates, it's actually Williams that are offensive rebounder Watkins is slightly better defensive rebounder. But again, you look at the year before for Williams before JT Toppin was there and Williams should actually

Starting point is 00:12:18 have the advantage here. Passing game definitely advantage for Darian Williams because you're talking about 3.6 assists per game to 2.4, which doesn't sound like that big of a difference. And Watkins, a good pass or 16.3% assist rate, but the big difference is the assist to turnover rate. Williams, again, almost a two assist to turnover rate. Watkins under 0.9. So there is a big difference in those two. Steel rate Williams over Watkins. Now Watkins is known as a better defender than Williams. Williams kind of just known as being, you know, just a neutral defender, I would say is kind of the rub on him. With Watkins, he's known for being a plus defender, but it is interesting because some of the stats actually like Williams better here. Again, the steal rate better for Williams though not by a huge margin. Block rate is better

Starting point is 00:13:09 for Watkins and the Keam rate a little bit better for Watkins but it's close. Watkins also used the ball a little bit more usage rate but again high for both guys. But Williams better in offensive wind shares, defensivechairs, on-off offensive rating, on-off defensive rating, on-off net rating, offensive RAPM, defensive RAPM, overall RAPM. He's way better at all of these. Some of those numbers though can be clouded a little bit by team success and Williams had it, whereas Watkins did not. And so that is going to make things look a little bit better there. At the same point in time, Williams

Starting point is 00:13:46 does deserve credit for being on teams that do well. He was on a tournament team in Nevada, he was on back to back tournament teams, Texas Tech, including an elite 18 that probably should have beat Florida who ended up winning winning the national championship. Whereas with Watkins, you're looking at being on back to back floor state teams that were, you know, right around 500, slightly above 500, just kind of mid teams, right. So he does get credit for that, even though

Starting point is 00:14:08 some of those advanced numbers may be clouded a little bit by that. But it is interesting that defensive windshear slightly better for Williams, then Watkins. Again, the on off offensive rating Williams, they were about 13 points better on offense when he was on the floor. For Watkins, it was about three and a half points better. But again, going back to the idea that you view Watkins as he's known as being a good defender, yet Florida State was worse back to back seasons on the on-off defensive rating when he was on the floor. Now, for a guy who played a lot of minutes and was asked to do a lot for his team,

Starting point is 00:14:42 I don't know. I again think that's a little bit clouded. I do think he's a good defender. But does that show some sort of limitations? Right? Is he just a good defender instead of a great defender or something? Or is he above average defender instead of a good defender? I don't know. I don't have the answer to that. Because again, you're talking about a negative defensive or APM. It's just interesting when you kind of look at some of that stuff. Now, what about the shooting for these specific players? So Williams better field goal percentage. Watkins a better two point percentage, though Williams better at the rim.

Starting point is 00:15:14 I mentioned that Williams go to that Florida range. Watkins is actually better. Forty eight percent in the paint. Watkins also a better mid range player. He definitely takes more mid range than Williams. The overall three-point percentage, Williams got two percentage points better, but the three-point attempt rate actually higher for Jameer Watkins. And that's just because Watkins was seeking shots,

Starting point is 00:15:36 I guess would be one way to put it, but Williams better both above the break by about a percent and from the corner, 37.5 to 35%. Again, though Williams was not great on the deep threes Watkins was good at him 34% so that is difference there. solid advantage almost nine percentage points for Darian Williams over Jameer Watkins in terms of free throw percentage and then the effective field goal percentage pretty even slight advantage Williams true

Starting point is 00:16:01 shooting percentage actually advantage to Jameer Watkins and then Williams with the slightly higher PR. So again, I kind of come away from this thinking similar things to the RJ Lewis one like you come away from this thinking okay, this is actually closer than you might think and there are some advantages to Watkins. But I do think the difference in whereas you're saying with Lewis to Williams, okay, Lewis definitively has like rebounding and some of these defensive numbers of Watkins, you think he's a better defender, but some of the numbers don't show it. And he's not a better rebounder than Darian Williams. So I do feel comfortably saying like, I

Starting point is 00:16:36 do like Williams better than Jameer Watkins. But how would we compare Watkins to Lewis, because those are two players who are there a little bit more similar. Williams more of the shooter and the passer. With Lewis and Watkins, you're getting more of those athletic wings who can thrive in transition and play strong defense at the other end. So let's finish up by comparing those two next on Locked on Jayhawks. And this episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K.

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Starting point is 00:18:48 okay so let's say Darian Williams decides to stay in the NBA draft, and let's say the international route doesn't work out for KU. Who do you go for? Are J-Lewis or Jameer Watkins? And I think that one's interesting because they are similar players and like I said, kind of more athletic wings. So the points is very similar. 18.4 points per game for Watkins versus 18.2 points per game for Lewis. And then I will say again, Lewis in the same way Williams did, gets credit for being on a better team, putting up similar numbers. 31-win team versus a team who

Starting point is 00:19:25 was under 20 wins but Watkins better effective illegal percentage again it's close 49 to 48.3 free throw attempt rate better for Watkins than Lewis and the rebound rate better for Lewis so if you're wanting more rebounding Lewis is the answer now we'll say Kansas having Floridaid Bidunga and Trey White maybe feel okay with the rebounding and you'd rather go for the scoring, right? Or maybe you're just like, let's keep going with the rebounding

Starting point is 00:19:50 and especially with not having a ton of big depth, right? So Lewis, the advantage almost double the offensive rebound rate and a slightly better defensive rebound rate, though that one is close. And the assists here are actually in favor of Watkins better assist rate by about four percentage points and about half an assist per game. The assist turnover rate is similar. Lewis slight advantage there, though. Steals per game, Lewis with

Starting point is 00:20:15 more steals per game, better steal rate. Again, do keep in mind that St. John's is running a system that is going to propagate steals a little bit though. Block rate is advantage for Lewis, but 2.1%, 2%, pretty even. Hakim rate slight advantage for Lewis. Again, Watkins higher usage rate than Lewis. Both are high, but maybe that makes it a little bit easier if it's a little lower to transition on to Kansas. And then in the same way that Watkins, you know, windshare and on-off numbers and RPM numbers were lower than Williams like across

Starting point is 00:20:48 the board. It's the same thing with Lewis. And again, you factor in the team success, which he does get credit for. But it does weight these a little bit more. But still, offensive wind shares 2.5 to 2.1 for Lewis, defensive wind shares 2.8 to 1.6. The on off Oh rating when Lewis was on the floor, they were over 10 points per 100 possessions better when Defensive wind shares 2.8 to 1.6 the on-off Oh rating when Lewis is on the floor They were over 10 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the floor with Watkins It was three and a half the defensive rating Lewis

Starting point is 00:21:12 They were about two points better per 100 when he was on the floor in defense again They were worse for Watkins a Florida State even though he is known and I think of him as being a Least solid defender and then the ORAPM almost three times as much, a little more than that. The DRAPM much higher for Lewis than Watkins and the overall RAPM is 6.3 to 0.9. So not really close there. So basically when you're looking at it here,

Starting point is 00:21:39 it's funny because this is like pretty more definitive than the comparisons of Williams to Lewis or Williams to Watkins, that there's a lot more check marks by the name of RJ Lewis than there are for Jameer Watkins. What about the shooting between the two of them? Because, you know, that's why I would lean Williams over these two the fact that okay, Kansas needs shooting and Williams has the advantage there. Okay, what if yeah, Williams does stay in the draft and you have to go for one of these two players or something.

Starting point is 00:22:09 Who would be a better shooter in that situation? Well, field goal percentage advantage for Lewis by a little over 1%. Two point percentage though advantage for Watkins. Now Lewis is better at the rim though it's close 63.4% to 62.1%. Again, Watkins better in the paint with that floater range, 48% to 32%. Mid-range is Advantage Lewis, but both of them were solid at it, 36 to 34%. Three-point percentage is Advantage Lewis, 33.6% to 32.1% for Watkins. But the 3.10 rate much higher for Jameer Watkins than RJ Lewis. And I think this is what's interesting. If you look at the 3.0 percent, so above the break threes, Lewis is 35.2%, Watkins is 32.8%.

Starting point is 00:22:54 That's advantage Lewis. But the corner threes advantage for Watkins 35% to 31%. And why I find that interesting, there's a lot of times corner threes are ones you are not taking off the dribble. You have to be set up for the corner three. Somebody has to pass it to you. You're not seeing guys take step back threes from the corner that often, right? Whereas the above the break ends up being the ones on the dribble a little more often. It's not always, and you still do have catch and chew ones above the break as well.

Starting point is 00:23:20 But more predominantly, the corner ones are ones that were set up for you. And when you look at Watkins, the usage he had to do a Florida State and you know, it's a catch 22. It's like, okay, you were the best player on Florida State, you had to be the shot hunter for the team at the same point in time. Is that part of your DNA? And if you are taking bad shots, or you are forcing shots up, Bill Self ain't gonna like that.

Starting point is 00:23:43 So can you find the balance there point being that if Watkins is willing to be more in the flow of the offense and not be a chucker at times, the three point percentage will go up. And so I think the ceiling of Watkins as a three point shooter is a little bit higher. But yeah, if we're just basing on the comparison of what happened last year, it's pretty even between the two of them.

Starting point is 00:24:04 Deep threes, almost 35% for Lewis a little over 34% for Watkins. Free throw percentage, both at 74.7%. And overall, the effective field goal percentage, Watkins at 49%, Lewis at 48.3. The true shooting percentage, Watkins at 55.5, Lewis at 52.5. Big reason why there's the free throw shooting, by the way, because that takes into account that and Watkins took a lot of free throws. But overall, the PR Lewis twenty one point three to twenty point four. And so I almost feel like the conversation of these two players

Starting point is 00:24:35 comes down to floor versus ceiling. I almost feel like Lewis has the higher floor than Watkins, whereas with Watkins, it's like there is going to be a bit of an adjustment with the, you know, not being the go to be a bit of an adjustment with the, you know, not being the go-to option and having the ball in his hands all the time and being the shot hunter, so to speak, on the team. I do think if you can fit him into the role,

Starting point is 00:24:55 like if you told me he committed to that specific role, I think I wouldn't take Watkins over Lewis after going through that comparison. The problem is we just saw Kansas try to do that with AJ Stor, Ryland Griffin, and it didn't really work out. Right. We saw Kansas try to do it with Remy Martin. It didn't work out for a little bit, but it did work out in the end and they

Starting point is 00:25:14 won a title because of it. So it was like, you can see the plus minus for the ceiling for it. But I still think I would go Williams one, Lewis like a 1B number two, and then Watkins would be a close third. I'd be happy with any of them, but I do think that would still be my order. Where's Dom? I saw her fit and all that. I don't know. He'd be somewhere between, he'd be after Williams for me as well. But again, I kind of view all of these as if they're ready to commit,

Starting point is 00:25:43 you take them and then you move on from there. I hope that was helpful for some people in kind of view all of these as if they're ready to commit, you take them and then you move on from there. All right, I hope that was helpful for some people in kind of cross comparing between those players and who knows, maybe there'll be other targets that kind of emerge later on in the game. All right, this has been Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get podcasts, including on our YouTube page.

Starting point is 00:25:58 See you next time with LOJ.

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Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Darrion Williams vs RJ Luis vs Jamir Watkins - Who's the BEST PORTAL OPTION for Bill Self and Kansas

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