Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Deep Dive Into How Lance Leipold Has Done in Bowl Games & As An Underdog

Episode Date: December 15, 2022

Diving into how Kansas Jayhawks football head coach Lance Leipold has done in his past bowl games with Buffalo as well as how he has done in his career at the FBS level as an underdog - just as KU will be against Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl. Plus, how/why Kansas has done better off longer rest.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!SimpliSafeWith Fast Protect™️ Technology, exclusively from SimpliSafe, 24/7 monitoring agents capture evidence to accurately verify a threat for faster police response. There’s No Safe Like SimpliSafe. Visit SimpliSafe.com/LockedOnCollege to learn more.Omaha SteaksOmaha Steaks is a gift from the heart – a gift that will be remembered with every unforgettable bite. Order with complete confidence today knowing you’re ordering the very best. Visit OmahaSteaks.com use promo code LOCKEDON at checkout to get that EXTRA $30 OFF your order.NHTSADrive sober or get pulled over. Click HERE to learn more.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we take a deep dive into how Lance Leipold has done in past bowl games, how KU has done with time off, and how Lance Leipold has done as an underdog. Three things that apply for KU's bowl game this upcoming, I don't know, two weeks from, I guess, yesterday in the Liberty Bowl against Arkansas. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well on Rock Chalk Sports Talk Monday through Friday from three to six on KLWN in Lawrence.

Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We're free and available wherever you get any of your podcasts, and on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're going to be taking a deep dive into Lance Leipold, how he's done in his past bowl games, maybe how he's done

versus expectation, how Kansas has done versus expectation um how kansas has done and uh with you know time off uh between games and how lance leipold has done as as he will be against arkansas coming in the game so let's pray here diving into uh the past bowl games under Lance Leipold. He appeared in three bowl games in his time at Buffalo. So this will be his fourth bowl game. Now, obviously, if you really wanted, you could go back to his days at Wisconsin Whitewater and view the national championship or the playoff as postseason, and that'd be different. But I don't know.

There's so many different parts about that that I didn't want to include that. So we'll start with the 2018 Dollar General Bowl. That was Lance Leipold's first bowl game appearance. Buffalo came in at 10 and three on the season. Troy came in at nine and three. You had two really good teams facing off against each other and they ended up losing 42 to 32. Then the next year made the 2019 Bahamas bowl. Buffalo came in at seven and five. Charlotte came in at seven and five and they won 31 to nine. So that became his first bowl win. And then in 2020, they played in the camellia bowl. Buffalo came in at five and one. Remember that was the COVID weird shortened seasons. They played less games. Marshall came in at seven and two and Buffalo won 17 to 10. So two and one in bowl

games overall, both in his time at Buffalo, but it's not just enough to see those results. How did they compare to how they did on the season, right? Where I'm basically what I'm trying to gather here is is there any trends is there any expectations of the idea of hey this unit or just overall your team has performed better or your team has performed worse in bowl games than the regular season you know whether it's just a problem with the long layoff in between or knowing how to deal with it taking advantage of it doing better off of it. There's different ways that you could find possible trends here. So in 2018, Buffalo averaged about 34 and a

half points per game. They scored 32 in the bowl game. They also allowed about 26 points per game. They gave up 42. So defensively, they did worse than their average. Offensively, they did a little bit worse than their average. 2019, Buffalo a little bit worse than their average 2019 buffalo averaged 31 and a half points per game over the totality of the season they scored 31 in the bowl game so basically right on par they gave up 21.3 points per game that year they surrendered just nine so they did a lot better than their expectation against charlotte in 2020 buffalo against Charlotte. In 2020, Buffalo averaged 43.4 points per game. They scored just 17, though, in the bowl game. They allowed 21.9 points per game. They gave up just 10, so defensively did better. So if you just base it on that, what they averaged over the course of the season and how

they did in the specific bowl game, then you would total it up, and Lance Leipold coached teams scored about 10 points per game less than they averaged for the season in their bowl game. But on the flip side, the defense gave up about three less points per game than they did over the course of the season in the bowl games. But that's such a small sample size. And like, for instance, the 2020 game where you had such a shortened season to begin with of six games and you come out there against a good martial defense and score just 17 like that one small sample can just such heavily have a negative impact on this i don't think that's a great way of maybe trying to find a trend either. So maybe we look at something else.

What else could we look at? What about how they did against expectations? Basically the spread, right? That can be not a perfect way of figuring out how you're expected to do because part of the spread isn't just what's expected to happen. It's what they can get people to bet on with the betting markets. But I feel like a lot of times in smaller bowls, when you have Buffalo playing Charlotte, you know, you're not really going to have a side where it's like, oh, everybody just

always bets on Alabama, right? It's like, well, it's not really the case in the Bahamas Bowl between Buffalo and Charlotte. So maybe it is a little bit closer to expectation. So 2018 Dollar General Bowl, Buffalo was favored by two and a half points. That means if you compare it to the spread based on how the final score finished, Buffalo finished 12 and a half points below expectation, so to speak, right? They were expected to win by two and a half. They ended up losing by 10. So it was a negative 12.5. But again, you could excuse that like easily and say that by 10 so it was a negative 12.5 but again you could excuse that like easily and say that well it was Lance Leipold's first ever bowl game and then you learn

some things from that first ever experience as good coaches do they learn on the go as well they're not you know the same guy they are their first year as they are in their last year so below expectation there but keep that note in mind that it's possible. It was Lance Leipold's first bowl experience. I mean, they also played a really good team in Troy and then he could have learned some things of how to deal with that time off and prepare for the team since then. 2019 Bahamas Bowl, Buffalo was favored by seven and they won the game by 22. That means if you compare it to the spread, Buffalo finished 15 points above expectation.

And then the 2020 Camellia Bowl, Buffalo was favored by four and a half points. They won by seven. So if you compare it to expectation, Buffalo finished two and a half points above expectation. And you total all those up between the three bowls, which again, this is a small sample size of three games, but Buffalo finished five points above expectation through three total bowls. So on average, they actually did better than they were expected to do across the three bowl games. And it's not a huge overperformance, but you definitely did well. And again, if we chalk up going back to

that reasoning on the first bowl game of the first bowl game, being a learning experience for Lance Leipold and bowls, then you can look at the last two games, which again, small sample, take a shot, I guess every time I say that, but, um, they have overperformed over the last two bowl games with Lance Leipold, the spread by 17 and a half points over the last two bowl games. And that is a lot more noteworthy and a big number to point to, which would show that maybe Lance Leipold has figured something out. These last two bowl games in terms of getting his team to perform better headed into the bowl game.

And it sounds simple to be like, Oh, we have time off. Why would our team not perform better? But the bowl game. And it sounds simple to be like, oh, we have time off. Why would our team not perform better? But the other team has time off too, right? And how many times did we see a great Bill Snyder team, you know, make it to a bowl game and underperform from what we saw in the regular season? Was it just they didn't have as much talent as the other teams once you had the time off?

So both teams had equal preparation that made up for the equal or the, you know, basically the more talented team won out. That'd probably not be a great sign for Kansas, but clearly he has shown that he's been able to perform well over the last couple of bowl games. All right, in a second, we're going to get to how Lance Leipold has done as an underdog in his time at Buffalo and so far here at Kansas.

But first, this episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline.net is your number one source for sports betting information, stats, news, and analysis. Get the latest odds and trends for every professional and amateur league out there from pro football to college bowl season to basketball and the World Cup. Got it all at BetOnline.net if you love sports podcasts which you're listening to this you can find those at bet online as well we're the fastest and easiest way to get your betting information head to the website today or use your mobile

device to learn more you can get kansas plus three points against arkansas in the liberty bowl you'll be able to get the kansas line against Indiana. That should probably come out like Friday evening, Friday night, if not Saturday morning. Bet online where the game starts. So it's certainly interesting in the last discussion we had, I guess the deep dive in how Lance Leipold has done in past bowl games, that Buffalo, I don't know if you noticed this, but was favored in every single bowl game under Lance Leipold, which means KU's game against Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl in a couple weeks is going to be Leipold's first bowl game where he was not the favorite.

And that can be exciting. You can play as the underdog. You can play with the chip on your shoulder. You can play with that kind of underdog mentality would always be a good thing, especially in a game that's projected to be close anyway. So how was Lance Leipold done as an underdog? Well, if you go back to his time at Buffalo, the last few years, he was very rarely an underdog to begin with at Buffalo, but certainly was a lot more at the beginning of his time with the Bulls. So 2015, he was an underdog eight times. He went three and five straight up as an underdog.

And by the way, by the way, I should probably mention this because you might hear some of these records and you're like, ah, three and five, that's not a great record. Underdogs win only about 23% of the time straight up in college football. So if you're winning one of every four games, so basically if your record is one in three straight up as an underdog, that signals that you're about on pace slightly above average to what the league average or the college football average is. So if you're winning, you know, 24% or above of your game straight up as an underdog, that is a very good record to have 25%. Like you'll gladly take

that. If you can get, you know, up toward 30%, that's a very good mark. So nonetheless, three and five straight up in 2015, but he was five and three against the spread 2016 he went just two and nine straight up but he was four and seven against the spread 2017 he was one in five straight up and completely flipped they were five and one against the spread as an underdog then you get to 2018 they start getting really good at buffalo so now they're underdogs a lot less. He was two and one straight up as an underdog. He was two and one against the spread. 2019, you're underdogs just three more times.

One and two straight up, two and one against the spread. And then 2020, that COVID year where they only played six games, obviously less games to even have out there where you could have been an underdog. They were never an underdog. So, no more games to add to the ledger for that one. So, we total it all up. In his time at Buffalo from 2015 to 2020, Lance Leipold was an underdog 31 times. In those 31 games, he was 9-22 straight up.

Again, record doesn't sound like unbelievable, but let's go back to that stat we just mentioned. College football teams as a straight-up underdog win only about 23% of the time. That means Lance Leipold in his time at Buffalo as a straight-up underdog won 29% of the time. So you're talking about a coach that was well above the national average i mean that's a very good mark to have you're winning 30 percent of the time as a straight up underdog just winning straight up that's a very good number also against the spread very good number he was 18 and 13 against the spread as an underdog in his time at buffalo

those stats bode well to being an underdog in general as Kansas is against Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl. Now, if you want to add in the stuff of how he's done at Kansas, I almost just take the first year and kind of throw it out. 2021, he was 1-10 straight up. But again, he joined the program so late, year one of a building year. He was 4-7 against the spread. A lot of that was toward the end of the season so did a little bit better there this season he went three and six straight up as an underdog again that's 33 percent of the time

you're an underdog you're coming up with a straight up win which is well above the college football national average he went four four and one against the spread as an underdog. So about 500. So if you just add in, if you add in the 2015 through 2020 at Buffalo and you add in 2022 for Kansas, which I know it is a little bit of cherry picking stats, but again, there's reasons to be able to kind of avoid that 2021 year. When you're looking at data like this, he would be a 12 and 28 straight up, which would, I'm trying to think, you would have, I don't know, again, that's like above 30%, so very good number there. And then he would be 22, 17, and don't know, being an underdog against Arkansas, that it's not just this something that you haven't done well in that role. Also, it is such a short line that it's not like you're a huge underdog.

So that's obviously, you know, an important thing for this team to be able to thrive in that underdog role. And certainly Lance Leibold has done that. So Lance Leibold has done well the past couple of bowl games over expectation. Lance Leipold has done well as an underdog. Those are both reasons to believe in Kansas for the Liberty Bowl against Arkansas.

We'll get to more of an X's and O's preview and breakdown and continue to talk about the bowl game leading up to it, but I think both those things are certainly interesting and positive trends that go to KU. All right, we're going to take a timeout on the podcast side. When we come back, we're going to finish things off with how Kansas has done off longer rest so far this season with locked on Jayhawks.

So we're back on the podcast side. By the way, coming up on tomorrow's show, we're going to be previewing the Kansas-Indiana game coming up on Saturday morning. Next week, we're going to probably start to get over into our non-conference player evaluations of how they've done to this point, maybe versus expectation and whatnot,

because after the Indiana game, there's just one more non-conference game against Harvard. And then it's the time off against Oklahoma state for December 31st. So be on the lookout for those coming up next week. But if you have anything you want for the show to talk about or discuss or have any questions, you can hit us up at D Johnson radio on twitter or in our comment section on youtube but um this team has just done a lot better off of longer rest i guess it is again like the word of the day small sample size i guess the

phrase of the day but they have done well in those situations. Now you can say every team does that and that might be true, but it's especially been true for Kansas off longer rest. They're three and oh, without longer rest, they're three and six. That's kind of a skewed stat that I could have given you, but I mean, season opener, you have long rest in between you take on Tennessee tech. Now, if they would have played Tennessee Tech off of one week rest have a sneaking suspicion they would have still been fine but they won 56 to 10 and I do think it is

important to bring up like they didn't just win that game in a lot of other ways of maybe some other FCS games or even KU's had games against FCS opponents where they've won like handedly enough but it still hasn't been like a blowout like that. They just absolutely dominated them. 56 to 10 was the final score there. Week two, they had one extra day in between after they played that opener on Friday against Tennessee Tech, played at West Virginia, and they won 55 to 42 in a road Big 12 game,

which those had been scarce in years past for KU. So it was a success. And then the only other time you've had long rest was off the bye week, taking on 18th ranked Oklahoma state. You won 37 to 16. Now each and every one of those, you can easily pass away and say, well, FCS game wouldn't have mattered. If you had time off, you had a close win at West Virginia.

How much did the time off help? You still gave up 42 points. You needed overtime to win. And Oklahoma State was without Spencer Sanders. You could easily pass those all away and say there have been other circumstances and it was maybe more correlation than causation of the bye week. But I have a hard time not seeing it from, like, yes, maybe the overall results was a big part of those other circumstances too.

But the way that Kansas played, at least offensively, in all of those games really sticks out to me. Tennessee Tech game, you did whatever you wanted on both sides of the ball. The West Virginia game you were unstoppable offensively and then the Oklahoma State game you ran for what 300 yards against Oklahoma State Devin Neal looked as fresh as ever you just having that extra freshness for this team was so important so now you get time off for the bowl and really the only equivalent for the time off you've had is like the season opener after having like a month of training camp because you have like a month off before the bowl game.

And that's a different type of preparation and having guys kind of keep their mental acuity without having the week to week grind and having Saturday of a game in front of you to make sure you are kind of staying on top of it. So it's different, but it's certainly good in terms of the health and getting players fresh, which I think to a certain regard has definitely hurt Kansas through the course of the season. Right. You think back to whether it's long-term injuries like Daniel Highshaw or Jalen Daniels for a period of time or Kobe Bryant for a period of time, or even if it's if it's just kind of nagging injuries that maybe impacted guys play like Lonnie Phelps when he played against Oklahoma, but in limited his snaps and how effective he was. You miss Luke Grant, Luke Grimm for a game, and who knows how much that injury kind of

affected him even when he was playing. There are guys we don't even know about who might have been playing through injuries, and we just didn't hear about it, and they never missed games, but they weren't as effective because of those injuries, right? So having that time off is great for all that. And Kansas has certainly improved their depth. I mean, they've gone from night and day from year one in Lance Leipold to year two.

It's certainly improved. At the same point in time, while it's improved, it's still not a strength at most positions if you compare it to other teams in the conference or other teams around the country. I think the defensive line had solid depth this season for Kansas, but the linebackers ended up not having a ton of depth. When you look at the secondary, maybe didn't have as much depth as you like, like having Caitlin Girvin as a third corner, that's really good to have his depth and having Marvin Grant, uh, or OJ Burroughs, whoever is your third safety, like that's good depth, but going further past maybe that first guy off the bench for the linebackers and the safeties and the corners, maybe didn't have as much as you wanted.

And so it was much improved from last year, but it still wasn't the target goal of where you're trying to go. Meaning when they did have a lot of those different bumps and bruises over the course of the season, it's more imperative for this team to get healthy than maybe some other teams who can survive off that a little bit better. So that's one extra reason why the time off helps for this team. But Kansas also does have a good coaching staff, as we illustrated with how Lance Leipold is done with the bowl games and is done as an underdog, and we just know schematically with Andy Kotelnicki and what this staff can be. So you give them extra time, that's always a good thing for game prep.

And if you feel like you have the codes or the schematic advantage, having more time to scheme up could be possibly a better thing for you. So all that up and all positive trends for KU headed into the bowl game with the fact that light bulb has done well in those previous iterations done well as an underdog in Kansas has done well coming off a little bit of extra time before games and needs that time to get players healthy. That's going to do it for today's edition of the show.

Coming up on tomorrow's show, we'll preview the Kansas-Indiana game that's going to occur on Saturday. If you have anything you'd like for the show to talk about or want to follow along on the action, you can reach out at DJohnsonRadio on Twitter. Don't forget to subscribe to the show so you're getting all the latest Locked on Jayhawks wherever you get your podcasts or on YouTube.

We'll see you on tomorrow's show. You can also see me on Rock Chalk Sports Talk later today on KLWN in Lawrence. Until then, bye.