Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - DISRESPECTED: Jayhawks Being Slept On By the National Media | Do Preseason Polls Even Matter?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Kansas is being criminally underrated, dare I say, disrespected by the national media. We're going to break down why, what's going on, why it doesn't really matter on today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast podcast network your team every day. What's going on? I'm Derek Johnson at D Johnson radio on Twitter x whatever you want to call it. This is locked on Jay

Starting point is 00:00:35 Hawks. Thank you for making it your first listen every day. Thank you to all the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show you to real MVP. And you can catch the show here anywhere you podcast including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. On today's edition, we're talking about KU basketball being disrespected being underrated by the national media at this point, we're also going to break down floor verse stealing outcomes for this

Starting point is 00:00:59 Kansas team and then a little 2k style ratings with the announcement of college basketball video game returning for what this Kansas roster would be Today's episode of the show is brought to you by game time You'll be able to buy tickets to the KU basketball football season upcoming Once they go up there from game time download the game time app creating account and use code locked on college for $20 off your first purchase with game time Okay, so I think Kansas basketball is being Pretty I don't know slept on by the media right now. And I guess the follow up to this is how much of this stuff actually matters how much of the preseason polls and the expectation, right? It doesn't, to be clear. But still, I mean, it's, it's something where it's like, I don't know, it bugs the fan. It's like, again, it doesn't really matter at the end of the day.

Starting point is 00:01:49 And honestly, the fact that Kansas would be like underrated, honestly can serve as motivation for the team. And they can play that underdog chip on their shoulder. Like if you're telling me Darren Peterson and Bill Self get to play with that underdog chip on their shoulder? Great. Awesome. Right. And obviously sports like are hard to predict. And everybody is entitled to their own opinions, right? At the same time, I do feel like Kansas is right now being penalized and being disrespected and being slept on in large part of what has happened the past couple of seasons, where

Starting point is 00:02:22 they're almost being penalized for people being wrong about them. You know, this is something where people have this like bias. This happens to like if you bet on like a football team, or you I don't know, like, and it just goes wrong or you you play fantasy football or fantasy baseball, fancy basketball, whatever, you drafts one, they have a bad year. You're more inclined not to take them or bet on them again later because you get this like inherent bias that like, yeah, it didn't go well for me

Starting point is 00:02:51 or they're bad for me. Even though it might've just been, hey, you happen to correlate when things were bad for them or something like that, right? And so regardless of all the great years of success under Bill Self in Kansas, you have two bad years where people pick you preseason number one in the eight people and all of a sudden

Starting point is 00:03:09 it is this indictment of like, well, you know, we're going to hold this against it and and I don't think it's really like a conscious decision for a lot of people. I think it's more subconscious than everything anything feeling like you've been let down like I don't think somebody's actively being like, you know, I think it's actually the 12th best team in the country but come come to think of it, they let me down the last two years. I voted them number one. I'm going to drop them to 22.

Starting point is 00:03:30 I don't think somebody's doing that consciously, but like subconsciously, could that be something that is in there? Yes. I don't think this penalty, let's say Kansas finished as the traditional Bill Self top four seed in the NCAA tournament. I think this team would be pretty consistently a top 12, top 15, maybe even borderline top 10 team in some of the preseason polls this season. And if someone doesn't fully buy into this team because of a lack of shooting, or maybe needing one more top end talented guy after they missed out on Dame Sar and Darian Williams, I get it. I think those are those are

Starting point is 00:04:06 valid, I guess, criticisms or concerns that you could have about this roster about this team. And so if you think they're close to being the 1415 1617 best team in the country, like, I still think they're going to be higher than that. And thank you, every day is caught our episodes of why I think they're going to be better, you know, next year than they were the last couple seasons. Again, you can check that out anywhere you get your podcast here. I can

Starting point is 00:04:30 understand if somebody would have them in that range, where I start to lose a little bit of what are you doing here, or I start to get to this point of like, okay, that's maybe going a little bit far, is some of the insanely low numbers. So John Rothstein has Kansas at 32nd in his top 45. I mean, what are we doing here? Kansas, there were 17 last year, and they're better this year. And we have them at 30. You have the most accomplished head coach currently sitting in college basketball, right? I guess maybe you could argue like Rick Pitino, but whatever.

Starting point is 00:05:12 You have the arguably best player in the country in Darren Peterson, 32nd. Joel Linares has Kansas is a sixth seed in the NCAA tournament. Now, quick aside to this, bracketology in general is the stupidest thing ever at this point in the season. Because at least like a poll, a power ranking, and a pre-season poll, it is people guessing how good a team is going to be. Do you understand what bracketology is?

Starting point is 00:05:44 Bracketology is not guessing what a team is going to be. Do you understand what bracketology is? Bracketology is not guessing what a team is going to be. Bracketology is evaluating teams resumes and saying, hey, based on this resume, based on how many quad one wins you have, based on your record, based on your conference standing, based on your net rating, based on your resume, this is what seed I think you are going to get. You're in the tournament. You're out of the tournament. You're a one seed. You're a three seed. That is bracket. How do you have bracket for a bunch of zero and zero teams? You can't. Everybody has the same resume

Starting point is 00:06:17 record. Whatever 100 times dumber than preseason polls but beyond that considering Kansas' schedule and the team they have no no not on the 60. If they get a six seed, it's because somebody got injured. Yeah, like somebody very good, he got injured. ESPN has them at 21, which is kind of borderline. Like I said, I can understand the kind of 15, 14, 17 range, I guess I could eke out if it was to 20. So that's a 21. But that still feels a little low to me

Starting point is 00:06:42 and why it's all dumb. I mean, first off, we want to take a look at a different place like an objective computer, which doesn't have some of these biases, Bartorvik has Kansas at 17th. And that's far from a perfect metric. Also, though, keep in mind, Bartorvik does not have Paul and Bea in there. It does not have Cole Rosario in there. Now, I don't know how much that affects Kansas or how much that would boost their Bartorvik rating, but their score is less than.01 away from being 12th,

Starting point is 00:07:11 even without those guys. So again, I think 17 is probably a little low, but I think it's at least you can make that argument or have that fair estimation on the team based on certain things. Regardless, let's start here. Kansas finished 24th in Ken Palm last season. As we talked about in a recent episode, there's a lot of reasons why this team is better.

Starting point is 00:07:31 Darren Peterson, hey, he might be the best player in the country, right? There's a difference between having Hunter Dickinson be the best player on your team who, you know, certain nights was the best player on the floor. But other nights, you know, maybe he was the second or third best player on the floor. Darren Peterson is the best player on the floor but other nights you know maybe he was the second or third best player on the floor. Darren Peterson is the best player on the floor. Okay, that's important. Bill Self with all American lead guards. They're constantly having success. Frank Mason, they go to the

Starting point is 00:07:56 lead eight when he was national player of the year. Devon Dots and second team all American. They're the best team in the country. Devontae Graham, first team all American. They go to a final four. Sharon Collins, back to back All-American years, they're Big 12 champions, three seed, Sweet 16, one year, they're the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament another year. When he has those All-American leads guards, they do well.

Starting point is 00:08:14 They should be a good offensive rebounding team, certainly much better than they were a season ago. They should be better at forcing turnovers and creating steals on the defensive end. They should be a more switchable defensive team who I know some of the overall defense ratings ended up okay for last year's team. But they weren't matchup proof. There were certain matchups that caused them issues. They're more matchup

Starting point is 00:08:33 proof with this year's team. There's lots of reasons why this year's team should be better than they were a season ago. But beyond that, we get to the important question. Does it matter? Does it matter where Kansas is being picked? And as I said earlier, no, it doesn't really. But I wanted to do a scientific reason why. Take a look at last year's AP poll. This was last year's preseason AP poll for the 2024 to 2025 season.

Starting point is 00:08:59 And if we look at the 25 teams that were rated, I'm going to sort them into three buckets. Hits, misses, and ish, kind of in a general range. The hits, Alabama was at number two, they were a two seed and maybe if they get a better draw with their one seed, they'd make a final four. I don't know. That's at least within range.

Starting point is 00:09:18 Houston being fourth on the pre-season eight people, okay, that's a hit. Arizona was 10th, they finished around there. Tennessee was 12th, they ended up getting a a two seed. So, you know, that's pretty close there. A&M was 13th. They were right around there. Purdue was 14th. They ended up getting a four seed in the NCAA tournament. So, you know, that kind of puts you right around that mark. UCLA comes in at 22nd. They finished around there. Ole Miss was the sixth seed. They came in at 24th.

Starting point is 00:09:45 So that would be one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. That would be eight hits. Eight of the 25 were basically hits of like right around where they ended up being. If we go to the ish column, Iowa State was preseason fifth. And maybe if not subversive injuries to some of their guards, they finish around there. I mean, they still ended up at three seeds.

Starting point is 00:10:01 Maybe we should put that in the hits column. That would give nine hits. Gonzaga was sixth where it's like, okay, they were in the eight, nine game in the first round of the NCAA tournaments. That would not be a hit. But if you look at their 10-palm rating, that was a hit. They were right around there.

Starting point is 00:10:15 They were just a little bit lower than that. So I'll put that in the ish column. Auburn was 11th. Again, you could argue that's a hit because people thought Auburn was in your top 10 team, but nobody thought Auburn was gonna be for the majority of the season thought of as the best team in the country. So I'm going to keep that in the ish column. Arkansas was 16th. Again, I could go either way. They were 16th. They made the sweet 16. So it's like, okay, technically,

Starting point is 00:10:38 you know, they were okay there. Technically, that was all good. But also they were in danger of missing the NCAA tournament for a good portion of the seasons. That would be kind of another ish. And then we look at the misses. Kansas being number one in the preseason that was a miss. UConn being number three in the preseason. That was a miss, obviously, you know, they get on the eight nine game as well. Honestly, I'm going to call Duke being number seven a miss. With how much talent they had and how loaded they were.

Starting point is 00:11:07 They should not they should have been a preseason top five team if not the preseason number one team in the country and they end up getting seven. So I mean actually call that a miss Baylor at eight was a miss that was closer to their NCAA tournament seed or was their NCAA tournament seed then they're how good they were in the country, North Carolina number nine nearly missed the NCAA tournament Creighton at 15. They were a solid team but they weren't a top 15 team. Indiana at 17, they didn't even make the NCAA tournament. Marquette at 18, they were what a seven seed in the tournament. Texas at 19 barely makes the tournament. Cincinnati at 20 does not make the tournament.

Starting point is 00:11:38 Florida at 21, they win the national championship and they should have been higher than 21. Kentucky at 23, they ended up being a three seed and having a really pleasant season. And then Rutgers at 25, did they even make, I don't even think they made the Big Ten tournament. So point being that is 13 misses, and I could argue it down to 12 if you wanted to take away the Duke one. But that's basically half the top 25 that they were wrong about in a big way. So the short answer is it does not matter.

Starting point is 00:12:06 The long answer is it does not matter. And the middle answer is that I think Kansas is going to be a lot better next season than there were these past couple of seasons. All right, let's talk a little floor ceiling outcome. What could the season look like for KU based on certain pathways that the season could go? This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of LOJ is brought to you by Game Time. Have you ever decided at the last minute

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Starting point is 00:13:46 Okay, so what are some of the floor-over-ceiling outcomes for this team? I think the players that impacted them, like, there is going to be a swing based on how good Darren Peterson is, and that'll be obviously the biggest one. If Darren Peterson is the best player in the country, or, you know, one of the best players in the country, like definitively, versus if he is a second team all big 12th performer. That's a pretty big swing and how the season will go for Kansas,

Starting point is 00:14:10 specifically since they built this team with a lot of role players to work around what could be a superstar, Naren Peterson. Then you end up with a bit of an issue there in terms of what you could end up being. But I think the realistic outcome is that, okay, he should be one of the best players in the conference and the country, right? The other swing outcome, I think, for the most part would be like, I mean, health is obviously the one that that applies for everyone. So that's almost like a given. It's going to be the shooting skills of players like Elmarco Jackson, and Melvin Council.

Starting point is 00:14:46 And how quickly can Cole Rosario acclimate with the team and can he provide three point shooting? Like, where's the three point shooting? Where's that level of play going to be for Kansas? How do the players from smaller schools like Council and Jayden Dawson? How do they? And I guess if you want to count the guys who were playing at OTE with Rosario Calderon and tiller, how do those guys jump up in competition? Right? And how do the young big men acclimate with Paul and Bea and Bryson Diller? I mean, all three of your big men are underclassmen right now for Kansas. Can they handle that without being the

Starting point is 00:15:18 most experienced players in the world? Right? I think the realistic ceiling, right? because there's always a 100th percentile or a one percentile outcome, first percentile outcome, whatever, that exists of like, oh, five players got injured, or every player was the best version of themselves. And those things don't happen that often. So like the realistic ceiling is that yeah, Peterson is a first team all-American or national player of the year. Floridunga is a first or second team all-Big 12 player who's a first team all-Big 12 defender with what he does on the inside.

Starting point is 00:15:54 Council and El Marco fit their roles as ball handlers and what they're asked to do and Council is this great defender and Jackson is shooting 34-35% from three. Dawson and Rosario are giving you three point shooting and BIA, though raw is providing you good things. Those are the realistic ceiling outcomes and Kansas ends up being a much better team. And I think the realistic ceiling I mean, if you have potentially the best player in the country, and you have a

Starting point is 00:16:18 another potential NBA draft pick and flurry and you have the possibly most decorated coach in college basketball, I'm not going to prevent the ceiling from saying that this team couldn't get a one seed. When you look at their, it's not, I'm not going to pick them to get a one seed, even though I'm higher than most of the national media, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities when you're talking kids.

Starting point is 00:16:39 It would be stupid to eliminate yourself before the season and say, that's just not possible. I think the realistic floor is that, yeah, Peterson ends up being good, but not a great player. Maybe Flory doesn't take a big step from where he was last season. Maybe some of your backup bigs are raw. Maybe you do have too many role players and not enough

Starting point is 00:16:57 another star player. And to me, that ends up being a four or five seed in the NCAA tournament, maybe a sixth seed. So for me, I'm kind of picking them to be in that two, three seed range. I think that's kind of the middle ground of where you're looking at with this team. But like I said, that's kind of where I'm looking at for this team with the Florin outcome. And it does feel like based on how the last two seasons have gone, that the range of possibilities does feel bigger than it was for so many years in the Bills Off era. And maybe part of that is the transfer portal.

Starting point is 00:17:25 Maybe part of that is just the core they had the last couple of years, but that's kind of how I'm viewing it for this season. Okay, they're talking about a new college basketball video game coming out and I used AI to help come up with what the college basketball the 2k whatever you want to call them ratings for this Kansas basketball team be we'll get to those next. Thanks for joining us on Lockdown Jayhawks. Again, don't forget

Starting point is 00:17:50 to make Lockdown College football or Lockdown College basketball your second listen every day. Don't forget as well we got the Rock Chalk Roundball Classic going on on Thursday and that'll be happening in a free state high school. You can still get tickets if you're in Lawrence 23rd Street Brewery. If you're in Kansas City, there's two Johnnys that are doing it. One in Olathe, one in, I forget what the other one was. Look it up, rocktruckroundballclassic.com.

Starting point is 00:18:14 And then in Topeka, it's the Johnnys over in Topeka. I think it's on Fairlawn. So you can get tickets for that or you can just straight up donate. But Rock Truck Roundball Classic, a lot of former KU players come in town and it's for an absolutely awesome cause. Also should mention I'm going to be doing a trivia event with some other people at Johnny's Tavern in West Lawrence that'll be Sunday July 26th I think is the Sunday or maybe it's the 27th but it's that Sunday and it's at six o'clock we're still registering for teams there's

Starting point is 00:18:44 cash prize it's a cash entry, and I don't take any of the money, it all goes to the cash prize. So it's a fun event that you get to do some trivia, you can have teams up to six people and win some prize. We also have free gift cards that were given away to so like, there's all sorts of stuff apparel. So highly recommend doing that. And I guess reach I have that on my Twitter for for how to reach out and who to reach out to for that. Okay, so I asked AI to develop a 2k style

Starting point is 00:19:12 ratings for this upcoming KU basketball team. If you missed some of the news this week. EA Sports basically announced that they were going to be bringing back the college basketball video game not going to be coming back till 2028. What's that kind of stinks? Then we heard from 2k that they kind of made a subtle hint that like, you know, we're going to be getting back into this as well, which is cool, because I was always more into like the college hoops 2k seven 2k than I

Starting point is 00:19:35 was the the the a sport I like both there were certain things I liked about each but you know, cool, whatever. So I basically had AI help develop with with certain things that I asked it to input and take into account and everything like that. And with a couple trial runs, and this is what we ended up with just to get a good idea of what what this would look like. And I don't know, I think this is kind of fun to look at. So it had Darren Peterson as the

Starting point is 00:20:00 top rating for KU with an 88. And I know that for some people just play like NBA 2k, that might sound low because the best players are like in the mid to high 90s. If you ever played the old like college basketball video games, it was like rare to see somebody be rated a 90. It was like the best players in the country are high 80s. Most of the players are going to be in the 70s. It was just different for the college basketball rating. So an 88 for Peterson, really good. It has

Starting point is 00:20:23 Flory as an 87. Really thinking high on Flory, what he's gonna do this year. Now Marco Jackson was the third highest player rated in these ratings with an 83. I didn't think he was gonna show up as high because the one season of stats that he had out there was not great his first season, but it believes in him.

Starting point is 00:20:39 So we'll see if AI is right on that. Melvin Council, Trey White are both given an 80 overall. Then you have Jaden Dawson as a 79. Paul and Bia it gave a 77 he definitely be somebody who would be even more fun to play with in the game just because the wingspan he's gonna be blocking everything like anyway, Bryson tiller was given a 76. Then you have Jamari McDowell who was also given a 76 I guess time McDowell there Cole Rosario

Starting point is 00:21:04 semis Calderon were given 75s Noah was also given a 76. I guess time McDowell there, Cole Rosario, Samice Calderon were given 75. No, Shelby was given a 75 and Corbin Allen was given a 73. Now this is not the be all end all this is not necessarily how I believe in everything. But I don't think this did a bad job either. There would certainly be tweaks that I would have throughout this of like certain guys that yeah, that's a few points too high. That's a few points too low. But I don't know, it's fun to at least look at and think about with the

Starting point is 00:21:26 precipice of that video game possibly coming out and things that you don't get it now to play with Peterson though, probably have a good opportunity if you're into that sort of thing to play with Darren Peterson in the NBA version of 2k coming up pretty soon here. All right, that'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast including on our YouTube page again, Rock Truck Roundball Classic later this week. Please

Starting point is 00:21:47 be there. Please support any way you can. We'll see you next time for another edition of Locked on Jayhawks.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - DISRESPECTED: Jayhawks Being Slept On By the National Media | Do Preseason Polls Even Matter?

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