Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - DO-OR-DIE: Kansas Faces Iowa State in Crucial Bowl-Eligibility PUSH – Will Jalon Daniels Deliver?

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we preview Kansas, Iowa State. Is this their last best chance, last real chance to get bowl eligible? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson here? This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making your first listen every day. And thank you for making the Lockdown Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:00:33 your number one sports podcast network. On today's edition of LOJ, we are breaking down with a preview, Kansas against Iowa State. We are going to get into the Iowa State scouting report, what the cyclones bring to the table, what should worry KU, what are areas that KU might be able to exploit, and we'll get to our matchups of the game as well on today's episode of the show.

Starting point is 00:00:54 And this episode of Lockdown J Hawks is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the Fandual Sportsbook app today. So KU takes on Iowa State's Saturday morning game. And I think the biggest headline and storyline coming into this game for KU just has to be over the idea of, you know, KU trying to get bull eligible, trying to get to bull eligibility. And this being your best chance to do that. Iowa State is playing at home.

Starting point is 00:01:27 This is senior day for them. They're coming off a big win. It's not going to be easy. You are an underdog. At the same point in time, you're going to be less of an underdog in this game than you will be in the Utah game. And Utah is going to be plenty motivated because right now Utah is going to have a chance to make the college football playoff. So different levels of motivations there, right?

Starting point is 00:01:50 This is your best bet to get it done. It doesn't mean you can't be Utah. You will be at home. They'll be on a time zone, you know, difficulty for them with an early morning game and senior day for you trying to be pumped up. But the odds are against you in that one. Odds are a little bit against you in this one, but not as much as that one. This is your opportunity to get bowl eligibility. You had some other chances.

Starting point is 00:02:12 You couldn't finish it off against Cincinnati. You couldn't, you know, finish strong against Missouri. The Arizona game, certainly. You've had some chances to get to bowl eligibility. this is now do-or-die time at this moment. And obviously there is always a chance that you could make it to a bowl game at 5 and 7 nowadays with if there's not enough eligible teams. It's based on like APR scores. But if you look at where KU's APR score is, it's not probably high enough that they would be one of those teams.

Starting point is 00:02:41 In fact, I think I saw like there's a chance in North Carolina at like 5 and 7 could get in over them. There's another one I was looking at. So point being that's not something you want to bank on win the sixth game because it would be so, pivotal important for this program to make it to a bowl game this year after not making it last year and also now being at a point where you're going to have a lot of young players stepping into bigger roles on next year's team those extra practices you could possibly get by potentially making it into a bowl game would be gigantic if KU was able to do that right and you think about shoot even just like the backup quarterback position which will be the starting quarterback position

Starting point is 00:03:20 next year. Wouldn't having those extra reps be super helpful for those guys? So this is a pivotal moment for not just this season, but the program and Lance Light pulled as a whole. And I think, you know, like to a certain extent that that can be a little bit of a good thing. KU's coming off a biweek, obviously. That can be helpful. And your also team was it back to the wall and is backed in a corner. You would hope that means KU comes out with a very spirited effort. but you're still got to execute to be able to get it done. Now, from the Iowa State perspective, they're trying to win on senior day here, right? And they're trying to end a three-game losing streak to Kansas.

Starting point is 00:04:01 This is in a way, like, who knows? Maybe the fact that you've continually lost to Kansas State, there's some sort of mental edge there. It's not nearly as long in this series. Three games pales in comparison to the 17th straight, the K-Stata is over you. But maybe there's something you can tune to in the end of this game that, allows you to kind of get over the hump if it is a close game at the end. But still, Iowa State is going to be, you know, extra motivated from that standpoint as well. They're like, okay, a lot of these players haven't beaten Kansas in their time there.

Starting point is 00:04:35 And now you're doing it on senior day in a tough home field environment. So that's going to make things more difficult for KU. Now, both teams are coming off a by week in this one. What I find is interesting is obviously it hasn't applied as much this year because now KU came off a buy. and destroyed West Virginia. So that one it did apply for. The other biweek they had was against Kansas State. That one did not help KU at all in that one with the biweek extra week of preparation.

Starting point is 00:05:01 Historically, Lance Leipold's time at KU, the biweek has been friendly to Kansas. But Iowa State's coming off a buy as well. And I think that's a bad thing for KU because as I look at, and this is just a one-year sample size, I can't think of last year who the team's coming off the buy were that played Kansas year ago. but Kansas played Cincinnati coming off a by this year, and Cincinnati, you know, just went up and down the field on KU as much as possible. Kansas State played KU coming off a by. KU was off a by too, but so was Kansas State, and Kansas State just dominated you.

Starting point is 00:05:33 I can't help but think with the bells and whistles that Kansas has, both on offense and defense, right? Defense, you're switching between a three-man front and kind of a five-man front and kind of a four-man front. You're doing some different things. Offensively, we know all the motions and formations that KU likes to run and some of the speed option concepts. I almost think it's more beneficial for the other team to get a buy week than it is for Kansas to get a buy week if both teams are on the buy to prepare for KU.

Starting point is 00:06:01 And so that scares me a little bit coming into this game just based on kind of the track record from this year. But, you know, overall, this is a very, I would say, even contest. I mean, obviously Kansas is only a game back in the standing six. and four compared to five and five, and the difference there is that Iowa State beat their rival in Iowa and Kansas lost their rival in Missouri. Otherwise, it'd be pretty even records there. But Kansas is eighth in the big 12 in yards per play. Iowa State is ninth. So you're right next to each other, neck and neck in the middle of the conference. Kansas is 13th in yards allowed

Starting point is 00:06:36 per play. Iowa State is 12th. So you're neck and neck right next to each other in terms of yards allowed per play as well with Iowa State the one spot better on defense, Kansas the one spot better an offense. So I think this should be a good game, but if it's a good game, and if it's a close game, those are things that have not been favoring KU at this point in time. Can you find a way to make it not a close game? You did last year. You won 45, 36, and that was a late Iowa State score to even cut it to nine at that point with, I think, a two-point conversion as well. But, you know, this is the moment. This is the moment for Jalen Daniels, for Lance Leopold, for this KU football team and for this KU football program.

Starting point is 00:07:14 Can you get it done? All right, let's continue on with our Iowa State Scouting Report matchups at the game. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of LOJ is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. You can get action on the KU Iowa State game over at Fandual. And the NBA is back as well. There's no better place to get in on the action than with Fandul, the official sports betting partner of the NBA.

Starting point is 00:07:39 Even if you miss the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, Fanduel has live bets on everything from who's going to score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bet into the same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team's making that late push. Right now, Fandual is given new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So head over to fanduel.com, sign up, play your game with Fandul, the official sports

Starting point is 00:08:04 betting partner of the NBA and the Lockdown Podcast Network. Thank you again for joining us. and making locked on the number one sports podcast network. Thank you, the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show, whether you got some of our KU basketball content from the Champions Classic or catching our KU football content to get you ready for Iowa State. We'll have plenty of content next week, obviously the KU Utah game and football, and then obviously players era tournament coming up for KU hoops as well.

Starting point is 00:08:31 Aaron Peterson return, we'll get to all that upcoming on the show. Iowa State comes in at six and four in the season. Matt Campbell is still their head coach. And interestingly enough, I think there are some similarities with Campbell and Leipold. Campbell's obviously younger, but both guys who have been good program builders and program raisers from very difficult situations, what Campbell inherited at Iowa State and what Leipold inherited at Kansas, both guys who at times have some game management issues, both guys who at times get overly caught up yelling at refs and maybe not moving on fast enough. I think

Starting point is 00:09:05 there are a lot of similarities. They're overall both good football coaches. And so it's funny, too, Like, you go back and Kansas obviously winning the last three, it was funny because when KU got slaughtered in 2021 in the first year of the Leipold era against Iowa State, they almost used the Cyclone's program as a measuring stick in, you know, the stadium and the fan support and what Matt Campbell was able to do is like, can they follow that blueprint and apply it to what they're doing in Kansas? And so in a certain standpoint, it's obviously not. Like KU's biggest rivals are Missouri and Kansas State, but to a certain extent, like from the coaching staff perspective, they're almost using this opponent as the barometer game. And I don't think,

Starting point is 00:09:52 like, I do think that is a little bit related to the fact that they've won three straight against Iowa State compared to, you know, not winning against Missouri and Kansas State. I do think there's a little modicum of that. But you look at Iowa State, they're 41st on ESPNSP Plus. They have the number 60 offense, number 30 defense, and number 44 special teams. Kansas, out of comparison, is 49th overall. They have the number 34 offense, number 73 defense, and number six special teams. How about that? And then on ESPN, FPI, Iowa State's 37th, Kansas is also at 49th.

Starting point is 00:10:27 Player personnel for Iowa State, we'll get to the quarterback here in a second. It's still Rocco-Bect, but their running back room is actually one of the better ones. I think in the Big 12, Carson Hansen and Abu Sama. They've totaled nine touchdowns over 1,300 yards combined. each of them are over five yards per carry rushing. I think of Sama is the more explosive guy. I think of Hansen as the more grinded out guy, but both have a little bit of everything.

Starting point is 00:10:50 It's a really good running back room in Ames. The receiver room, it's, I don't think it's like a bad receiver room per se. And Brett Eskildson and Chase Soel, Sowell, have both been solid players. The tight ends are super involved, which helps Benjamin Bromers, one of the better tight ends in the country and in the conference. D.K. McDonald's said the best in the conference. He's certainly in the conversation. But it's interesting because it's, if you compare it to last year, I think this is where it is.

Starting point is 00:11:19 It's without a doubt to say like, this isn't a knock on the car. It's a step back. You had two guys who were like day two picks in the NFL draft with Jalen, Noel and Jaden Higgins. And it's hard not to see like some of the passing numbers as down as they are this year compared to where they were a year ago and not just kind of link it up to the idea that like, hey, you had a guy in Noel. who was great yard after catch or could just separate and get open in a moment's instance or a guy like Jaden Higgins who could make, you know, contested possession catches. And even if you have decent receivers now, they're not NFL dudes. And so that could be the difference of being, you know, a six and four team versus maybe you'd be eight and two with those guys, right? Or at the

Starting point is 00:11:59 very least like seven and three. So I think that's been noticeable. The offensive line for Iowa state, they're 90th in the country and past blocking grades. They're not great. They're 61st in run blocking grade. Kicking-wise, they've also missed five field goals. KU would hope for a repeat of 2022 there. They do have strong legs, though. They've made a 63-yarder this year. And then defensively, not a big pass rush.

Starting point is 00:12:21 No one has more than two sacks. For Iowa State, they're 125th on pro football focus and pass rush grade. They can get coverage sacks occasionally, though, because the coverage usually is really good. It's not as good this year, but it's still, I wouldn't say, an issue. And they're 80th on pro football focus and coverage grade, but usually they're like top 30 or higher. But, you know, some of that is because of the injuries they've had. If they're fully healthy in the back end, they would be probably a top 30 coverage unit. But they've had so many injuries to the back end that it's depleted them there.

Starting point is 00:12:53 But still, John Hecock with what he does on the defensive end and his scheming and his coverage schemes and stuff, it still makes it difficult for opposing teams. But oddly enough, they are just 131st in the country on. pro football focus in tackling grade. And so maybe this is a game where you can break some tackles and hit some big plays. And a big reason why they've struggled at linebackers. So there's 57 Big 12 linebackers, 57 who have registered 20% of snaps or more. Iowa State's linebackers among those 57 rank 28th, 39th, 42nd, 48th, and 53rd.

Starting point is 00:13:29 Now, if I cut that down to 50% of snaps, so it's a smaller sample size, there's 33 qualified linebackers in the Big 12. The Cyclone's backers would rank 21st and 31st. So you look at all that. You look at the lack of tackling. Maybe this could be a big game for the KU running game to get going, but still scary anytime you're facing John Hickok is the defensive coordinator because he has consistently had one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and in the country really over the last,

Starting point is 00:13:53 I don't know, it's felt like a decade at this point from Iowa State. A quarterback deep dive is Rocco-backed. He has 2230 passing yards, 60% completion rate, seven and a half yards per attempt. both of those are a little bit on the lower end 12 touchdowns to nine interceptions that on the lower end touchdown interception ratio and a 61 QBR that's about average 63rd nationally he is a very experienced quarterback 60 career passing scores he's a quarterback who I think the best way to describe it is like he can be a big winner for you in the right situation right and the right situation can be the right play caller it can be the right pieces around him it could be when he's

Starting point is 00:14:30 kept clean it can be having two pro receivers like you had a season to go. But when you don't have those things, right? We mentioned offensive line has struggled a bit. We mentioned the pro receivers aren't there anymore. He's not going to be, I don't think he's been bad, but last year he was excellent. And I think a part of that is, and like I look at this too, right, like when he's under pressure, 5.4 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns of four interception. So if you can get pressure on him, that's a good thing. But I think it's a bit about, you know, the supporting cast there in what's led to lesser stats this year. It is, a lot of underneath throws, just 24 behind the line of scrimmage.

Starting point is 00:15:07 So they don't throw a ton of screens necessarily, but 141 attempts that are between zero to nine yards past the line of scrimmage. And overall, that means 165 of his 299 attempts in total on the air. That's 55% of his throwing attempts are of the short variety, so to speak. So you got to guard those short passes. Overall, doesn't really put the ball in danger a ton. I know he has the nine interceptions, but he has just a two and a half percent turnover worthy throw rate like Jayland Daniels is at 3.4%. So maybe a little unfortunate to have the

Starting point is 00:15:38 nine interceptions. Maybe there's been some tiffed balls in there. Yeah. As far as key stats for Iowa State, let's start with the five happy stats for the cyclones. Number one, they are 86th percentile in average third down distance offensively. So they've actually been really good at getting into third and short, third and manageable. And it makes sense when you have that running back duo of Hanson and Sama. Iowa State is first by far. yards per punt return. Big reason why they haven't had a ton of pot returns, not as many as some of the other teams, and they housed one for a touchdown, but it is something to keep in mind coming into this game. Seventy-fifth percentiles, so basically the top quarter of college

Starting point is 00:16:15 football in pass explosive play rate. This is a team who can hit some explosive passes. So that's something that the KUDBs, we've seen them give up too often at times this year. You've got to be on your game in this one, especially coming off the buy week. There are also 74th percentiles, Iowa State in havoc rate on defense. It hasn't been as good of a defense as some of their previous ones, which have been, you know, elite units. It's still a solid unit. But one of the things they're still doing well is creating havoc plays, which is tackles for loss, it's sacks, it's interceptions, it's fumbles. They're also 34th in the country in EPA per play. It's top 35 nationally in EPA per play against the run. And a big reason why they're 79th percentile in

Starting point is 00:16:56 stuff rate. So they're only playing a three down front, but they're still able to get a lot of stuffed runs. And that allows them to be overall pretty good against the running game, even despite some of the mistackle issues. Part of the other thing of what their defense is with this three down front, guys fly to the football. So they might miss a tackle, but they might have two other guys there that end up making the tackle because he helped kind of slow them down. Five sad stats for Iowa State. They're 12th in the Big 12 in passer efficiency as a team. they are 109th in EPA per play passing. So even despite having an experienced veteran quarterback

Starting point is 00:17:31 because of some of those supporting pieces, the passing game overall has not been great for Iowa State this year. They're last in the Big 12 in sacks with just 10, so not a defensive line that gets a lot of sacks. I think this is a game where Jalen could have some time. You've got to be patient and you can't like patient yourself into a bad throw. I think we've seen that at times where it's like, okay, you're in the pocket for so long and you're like,

Starting point is 00:17:53 oh gosh, I have to do something. And then you force one or you try to take off and run and the lane's not there instead of just being like, hey, I'm having the time. Let's be patient here. They are 21st percentile in success rate on late downs on offense. So we mentioned they've done a really good job of getting into third and manageable. They just haven't converted those third unmanageable's enough. But that's interesting because the KU defense has struggled on third downs this year. Iowa State's also 38th percentile in rush explosive play rate defensively.

Starting point is 00:18:21 So even though they're getting a good amount of stuffs against the run, you know, where they're preventing any gain on the play. They're also giving up a lot of big plays occasionally, so maybe KU can bust one off. And then four notable players out for the season, they've had countless other injuries and missed action, kind of on both sides of the ball, like Jeremiah Cooper, John Tess Williams,

Starting point is 00:18:44 those are, like, Cooper's one of the best DBs in the Big 12 when healthy. John Tiz Williams was having one of the best coverage seasons in the Big 12 went healthy. Even like Benjamin Brommer, Carson Hansen, who, you know, are playing right now, have had injuries throughout the season. And it's just a litany of injuries they've had to deal with. Last year, it's kind of the case, too. But this year, too, in the secondary, last year was really at linebacker.

Starting point is 00:19:06 This year is really in the secondary. And that has certainly hurt them so far this season. Let's get to our matchups of the game that's going to determine if the Jayhawks or the Cyclones can come out on top. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for joining us on this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. We'll have our keys to the game coming up on tomorrow's episode. I'm going to try to have a KU Basketball bonus content show as well.

Starting point is 00:19:31 Thanks for doing it into Lockdown, Jayhawks. And let's get to our matchups of the game for Kansas and Iowa State. First down, be patient, but don't be afraid. So Iowa State has a tough defensive scheme to go against. And Jalen Daniels has had some issues, I think facing some of these like 335, three down front defenses that have the extra DB out there. I think of the Kansas State game earlier this year where he certainly struggled. I think back, the one that sticks out in my mind always when I think about this is the 2022 KU Iowa State game.

Starting point is 00:20:00 And that was the one that KU won 14 to 11, Iowa State missed three field goals. And that was the reason why. Jalen Daniel goes seven of 14 for 93 yards in that game with eight carries for nine yards. That might have been the worst statistic game that he was in for the full game for. That was not great for Jalen there. No, to be fair, to his credit, he's actually had some good games against some of these three down front. Cincinnati this year was a three down front who their D.C. is a disciple of the John Hickok, Iowa State defense, right? Iowa State last year, I know that was mostly Devon Neal, and that helped set up the pass a little more, but Jalen was really efficient and made the place when he had to last year against Iowa State.

Starting point is 00:20:39 So there have been some moments where he's been able to figure it out, but there's also been some other moments where it's looked kind of ugly. Can you be patient in this game, especially knowing they don't have the best pass rush? And it's kind of a difficult mix when you face this Iowa State defense of taking what the defense, gives you, but also not being afraid to take the occasional shot, just because, like, occasionally you might have to try to fit in a one-on-one and just be like, you know, I'm going to take my shot. I think back to the Jason Bean, KU led Jayhawks in 2023 that won in Ames and being played an outstanding game.

Starting point is 00:21:12 KU played an outstanding game overall, but think about some of the one-on-one shots that Jason Bean took that he basically said, hey, I'm hoping my guy can make a great catch, and they did. Doug Emileon made a great catch in that game. Quentin Skinner had like two great catches. in that game. I think Luke Grimm had a great catcher to. L.J. Arnold had like an 80-year touchdown. He basically said, I'm going to try to let my guys win. And I think Jalen needs to uncork it a little bit and do that in this game. But again, patiently, you can't do it every time. It's finding the right

Starting point is 00:21:40 time to take the shots. Second down, keep drives alive on third down. What's the best way to take the crowd out of the game, right? You're in a road game here. Keep gut punching them on third downs. There's nothing worse than when you're a fan in the stands and the other team keeps converting third down over and over again. And then eventually you start to lose that momentum. You start to lose that juice. It's just a big gut punch. Well, Iowa State ranks 13th in the big 12 on third down defense. So there's going to be an opportunity for Kansas. Now, unfortunately, KU is just 12th in third down offense, but that's a number that's going up. They were 14th a couple weeks ago. So slowly climbing up. Again, this is a team that was typically in the top two of the league, the previous

Starting point is 00:22:18 three years. Maybe this is a game that you can do just that. Third down is run for 140 or more yards. Why 140 or more, you ask? Well, Iowa State is one in three this season when giving up 140 or more rushing yards. So obviously, that's a losing record. You compare that to the other side. They're five and one when they don't. And the lone win when they give up 140 or more rushing yards, it was an eight point win against Arkansas State. So they allowed 290 to Arizona State, lost at home. They allowed 260 to Cincinnati, gave up 38 points lost. They gave up 160 on the ground to Arkansas State in what was a close win against the, you know, non-power team. And then they gave up 140 to Colorado, a bad Colorado team.

Starting point is 00:23:00 And they lost that one by seven. Can you run for 140 plus? They ran for 237 last year. I was with Devin Neal, who, you know, is a superhuman. But can you find your way? Lance Leipold mentioned earlier this week, they're a little more beat up at the running back position than they were in the Arizona game. Can you find a way to still have some running success against Iowa State and not put everything. on Jalen Daniels.

Starting point is 00:23:22 And then fourth down here, I mean, I thought about making this, okay, do we talk about can KU close in a close game? I thought about making this, can they be aggressive in play for the win? I thought about even making this, you know, end the first half on a high note. And through all of those, right, I decided to settle with this one, which is force some turnovers. Because in going back and looking at it, Iowa State has turned the ball over eight times in their last four games.

Starting point is 00:23:51 So they're averaging two turnovers per game from their offense, the last four games. But KU's defense is not forcing turnovers right now. They've forced zero turnovers over the last two games combined. And it's not like they haven't had opportunities. I mean, they had what, two or three dropped interceptions against Arizona. Then you have the one that gets called back because of the penalty. I mean, Syed Gibbs had that pick six gift wrapped to them, right, and wasn't able to take advantage. Can you get one of those lucky breaks in this game?

Starting point is 00:24:17 And can you take advantage? If the ball is there, you have to come up with it. Overall, Kansas is not just zero in the last two games. It's three in the last six games. This is a weakness on weakness. Iowa State's turned it over too much this year. Kansas is not forcing turnovers this year. This is a game you have to be able to do it if you're the KU defense.

Starting point is 00:24:35 You have to be able to punch some of those balls free. Maybe you get a fumble. Maybe you get an interception. Hold on to the ball. I hope that was something that worked on during the buy. Like DB's making a couple catches here. They're getting on the jugs machines or something because you're going to have to take advantage. Rocko Beck's doing nine interceptions.

Starting point is 00:24:50 this year. Make it 10, make it 11, make it 12 by the end of this game. That'll do it for this episode, Locked on Jayhawks, so you can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. We'll be back on tomorrow's episode to talk keys to KU taking down Iowa State. This is LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - DO-OR-DIE: Kansas Faces Iowa State in Crucial Bowl-Eligibility PUSH – Will Jalon Daniels Deliver?

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.