Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Does a Stable of Running Backs Lead to Winning in College Football?

Episode Date: August 23, 2022

Guest host Nick Schwerdt breaks down the Kansas running back position, and running backs impacts on College Football in general. Is Devin Neal star ready, and can the strong position group lead to wins at KU this season?Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks, we're joined by Nick Schwert to talk about the running back position at KU and how much it could lead to wins. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well on Rock Chalk Sports Talk, Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 on KLWN. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcasts.

On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, joined once again by Nick Schwert, producer with Cody and Gold on 610 in Kansas City, as well as some KU stuff with Basketball Friends and Waving the Whe wheat podcast through 610. One thing that I always find interesting with the running back position in general is like you go through from I think every level. You look at the NFL running backs are constantly a position that people are talking about. Yeah, but how much do they matter?

Should you use high draft picks on them? Whatever it is. You look at like the lower levels, right? If you have a star running back who's just a man amongst boys when you're in sixth grade, you're probably winning the league. And then college and high school are somewhere in between. If you have the star running back in high school, you're probably going to win a lot of games.

You might win a state title, but sometimes there's some hurdles that come along the road there. And then you get to college, and it's kind of interesting. You have examples of Kenneth Walker Walker who comes over to Michigan State and is the best player on a team that wins double-digit games but you also have examples of a guy like Sean Tucker who is one of the better running backs in the entire country he's probably going to be one of the first four or five running backs taken in next year's NFL draft He puts up a top five rushing season in the country and Syracuse doesn't even go to a bowl game. So Kansas clearly has a really strong running back unit, both in

terms of you have what you think is star power with a guy like Devin Neal up top, and you have the depth of this group when you have about five deep that you feel comfortable playing there or that could play in different roles and so i'm curious how you kind of view the impact of good running backs in the college game compared to other levels of football and how much that could matter for kansas this season well there's two different worlds that exist within college football right there's and there always has been. There's the haves and the have-nots. We know which group Kansas is in. When you look at sort of the top, I'll start at the top and kind of get back to Kansas.

When you look at the best teams in the country, I don't think it matters. And I think that you don't have to dig very far to find the evidence as to how it doesn't. You go back and you look at the top, the four teams that made it to the college football playoff last year, with the exception of Michigan, who I think was top 20 in rushing yards per game, none of those teams were elite rushing teams. You go back 15 years ago, it's a completely different story. You go to the late 2000s with the Alabama team in 2009, with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, or those Florida teams.

A lot of times you would see that, where teams were dominant, predicated on dominant running games. But what we've seen over the last 15 years, 10, 12 years, is that teams understand that they can still possess the schematic advantage while being a more efficient offense passing the ball. Alabama last year wasn't even top 50 in the country. I mean, they were a pedestrian running team. It doesn't matter when you have Bryce Young who tosses 47 touchdowns and you can average nine yards per play as long as he's throwing the ball.

The most elite running teams in the country are never going to be able to match the efficiency that you have if you have a good quarterback. All the elite teams have great everything, right? They've always had great offensive lines. They've always had great skill position players. Now, all of a sudden, instead of Greg McIlroy at quarterback, it's Bryce Young, who's going to be a top two pick in a year, it makes the decision pretty easy for an offensive play caller or a roster builder in Nick Saban. Kansas is not that.

Kansas does not have the talent advantage on the offensive line. They don't have the talent advantage at quarterback. Therefore, if you're Kansas or even teams that are programs that are a little bit more stable, a mile down the road or an hour down the road, Kansas State, right? They run the ball. Deuce Vaughn is a top five, top three, maybe the best running back in the country. They're not a national championship contender, but they won eight games last year because they had one of the best singular talents

at running back. So regardless of what level you're at, you're constantly trying to find the path that best suits you, find your best players, find your best, best way to have an efficient offense. And you tailor a game plan to that going into this season for Kansas. We don't know much about quarterback. We think it's going to be Jalen Daniels and they seem to like him. I think he checks a lot of boxes in terms of just the guy that you want being your signal caller. But in terms of him being able to put a team on his back and this team being able to win games because of his arm,

we haven't even seen close to that, right? The Texas game that Kansas won, they won in large part because, A, the defense got takeaways, and and B, Devin Neal had a career game. So going into this season, what are your strengths? Offensive line, we don't know much about. They played a little bit better at the end of the season, but they were still one of the worst units in the country last year. But running backs is one of the few areas on this team that I think you feel good about. You're not going to win a national championship at Kansas. You're probably not even going to a bowl game.

But in terms of what's your best foot forward, what is your best route to relevancy in college football, it's depending upon your strengths, which is that room. Yeah, I feel like I'm a little spurned by the idea that, like you had a season where you had Puka Williams and Khalil Herbert, who Puka Williams, the freshman and sophomore version, was one of the most talented running backs that we've seen at KU in a long, long time. And you had Khalil Herbert, who was an NFL running back on your roster. That team won three games, right?

Or if you want to go a little further back, you had James Sims and Tony Pearson, which didn't have the NFL ceiling of those guys, but those were two really good running backs in the Big 12, and those teams, depending on which you're looking at, might have only won two or three games. And I don't know, because you can kind of look at this as, well, even though the Puka Williams and Khalil Herbert won, may have only won three games, you probably could have won more games. And maybe it's as simple to say as, if that team with Puka williams and

khalil herbert is coached by lance leipold and this staff as opposed to david beatty maybe they do win four or five games with that running back so it's a little bit of a chicken and egg yeah i mean one thing we know about lance leipold and this staff is what we were just talking about. They're going to play to their strengths. Go back to the COVID-shortened year. So I guess it would have been Lance Leipold's last season at Buffalo. I think they only played seven games, but they went six and one. And they scored 43 points a game, Derek. And they, I believe, led the country.

They were top five or they were the number one top five in rushing yards per game and yards per attempt. I'm looking at it now. 287 yards per game on the ground. Almost seven yards per attempt. And Jarrett Patterson, who had 19 touchdowns in six games, by the way, for a running back. So over 1,000 yards.

On base for 38 in a 12-game season. Right. And so that's what I love about this coaching staff. Being at Kansas now is going from Whitewater, Wisconsin, to Buffalo. You've never had the talent advantage. You've never just been able to line up and say, it doesn't matter what we do. We can pass the ball.

We can run the ball. It won't matter because we have advantages at every matchup, and we're going to beat you at whatever we want to do. They've always had to find that sort of schematic advantage. What are our strengths? How do we maximize our potential? How do we maximize what our best route is? So I know that this coaching, I don't know how good this team is going to be, but I do have faith in this coaching staff that they're going to be able to find that path and utilize it you know one one team that's interesting to me is coastal carolina you know a team that we saw up close and personal last year and you know they were one of

the best stories in college football and you look at what they did well offensively it was all schematic right they run this you know rpo triple all schematic, right? They run this, you know, RPO, triple option. I don't know the best way to, you know, categorize their offense, but they were hyper-efficient at everything they did. And they went on to not only win 11 games, but they went to a bowl game, won a bowl game. They were one of the most efficient rushing teams in the country. And you say, okay, well, look, there's evidence of a team running their way to victories. But they were also one of the most efficient passing teams in the country. So that to me, again, is schematics.

You're not going to be the most talented team. Coastal Carolina is not out there bringing in four or five-star recruits. But schematically, they found ways to keep defenses on their toes and they did it for a sustained period of time. It wasn't a flash in the pan. It wasn't a little four game stretch until teams figured out what they did. They did it all season and they won that way. So it's not to say that rushing isn't important. It's you can't just line up and play a pro style rushing attack. You can't just try and do this spread attack, which we saw under David Beatty, which we then saw the pro stylestyle stuff under Les Miles.

You have to find the schematic advantages because you're never just going to be able to line up and beat the other team based off talent. Okay, in a moment, I want to get into some of the individual numbers of some of the teams last year with this and kind of sparse out the idea of how much does a star running back matter versus how much does just having a good running game in general and having depth at the running back position matter bet online.net is the fastest

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You can get Kansas at like 300 to 1 to win the Big 12. I've thrown away money at worse things before. Okay, so on tomorrow's show, we're going to be joined by Scott Chasen. I want to get into kind of the sparsing. So first of all, I just want to look at some numbers here. If you look at the top 12 individual rushers from last season, they were all on teams that won five or more games. And so if we look at it from a national perspective of,

yeah, but that team didn't even make a bowl game, it doesn't sound great. But if you look at it from the Kansas view of things and say, no, they won five games, that would be the most that Kansas has won in over a decade, then it looks a little bit better. 20 of the top 22 individual rushers in the country won five or more games. I think part of an issue when you try to decipher stats with some of this stuff as I go through this, though, is that you have offensive lines can be better at certain schools, passing games can be better that maybe opens up the run a little bit more, and you could have teams that, don't know maybe it's it's more to their liking to just

pound the ball and guys total big numbers and everything so like there are different factors do you have the list of guys in front of you i don't but here here if we go a little further like if we look at yards per attempt which still doesn't get rid of some of those external factors like blocking, QB, play to open up the box, all those things. The entire top 19 made a bowl game and the top 23 all won five or more games. So how do we go about taking out those external factors and the stats here to look at how impactful these running backs and running games could matter? Because again, you still have the run blocking. That's a part of that.

Like you could just have a great offensive line. KU could have, again, like this isn't fact, but KU could have the best running back group in the country. But if their offensive line sucks, it's not going to matter. So what if we look at pro football focus? They have a rushing grade. And again, this isn't the be all end all. But if you look at the top 10 of pro football focus rushing grade, the only team who did not make a bowl was Texas. They had Bijan Robinson. Makes sense. They have a great rushing grade. They still won five games. Then if you extrapolate it out to the top 25, just by rushing grade of purely, hey, this guy gets a this grade for making this guy miss and breaking tackles and stuff like that.

The only schools that were in the top 25 that didn't make a bowl game were Texas, Syracuse, both of those had top five running backs in the country and won five games, Georgia Tech, who their starting running back is now going to be the starter at Alabama, and who knows, might even be a Heisman candidate. And then let's extrapolate it even further. The entire top 50 on pro football focus in terms of rush grade, only two teams in the entire top 50 won less than five games,

Georgia Tech and USC. So that's what we're talking about here. If you are top 50 in just rush grade, basically the ability for your runners to make guys miss and make things difficult for the defense to tackle you, pretty much all those teams won at least four or five games. Well, it makes sense because you think about it like this. If you're going to pass the best passers in the country, right, on any given year, and let's just assume that in any given year it's going to be Ohio State, Alabama, because it is, right? According to this year, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, two best quarterbacks in the country. CJ Stroud, I think averaged over 10 yards per attempt last

year. So you had a great running back at Ohio State, Travion Henderson, right? He comes into this year is probably top three in terms of running backs with actual Heisman potential. No matter what, no matter how good that running back is, if you're averaging 10 yards every time you pass the ball, every time you hand it off, it's a less efficient play. There's still a reason the teams run the ball. You're not just going to step back and throw the ball 65 times a game. But if you're going to run the ball and you're going to take it out of your quarterback's hands, you better be good at it. Right. Right. Or else you are not only running a less efficient play, you're running that less efficient play inefficiently.

So you better be good. So it would just make sense that the teams that are running the ball efficiently are going to have success, because if you're not, it's almost a double whammy. You're running a less efficient play and you're not good at doing it. And I feel like, again, there's, you look at the two sides of that coin. There's, yeah, there's the Kenneth Walkers who were playing at Michigan State, you know, good team in the Big Ten, winning a lot of games. And then there's Deuce Vaughn at Kansas State, right? Where that was really the only thing working for that offense, but it worked so well. He was so efficient. And it wasn't just as a runner. He's a great talent as a pass catcher.

I think he caught over 40 passes as well. So it's almost like you can be Brian Robinson at Alabama, and you're just going to benefit because you've got five-star offensive linemen in front of you. You've got a future first-round pick at quarterback. You've got a great offensive scheme. You're going to have success no matter what, right? You'd have to be terrible not to have success versus the teams like Kansas State or Brees

Hall at Iowa State where it's like, you better be good because you're the only option for this offense to run smoothly. And I think that that side of the coin is clearly where Kansas is at. When they're running the ball, when they're handing it off to Devin Neal when they're handing it off to Daniel Hyshaw or Kai Thomas they better run with efficiency because we don't expect Jalen Daniels to be a guy throwing for 4,000 yards and 30 plus touchdowns I think I know this this almost sounds stupid and I don't know maybe this doesn't make sense but I think we would both agree that the individual rusher, the top guy, the star player probably has a bigger impact on it than the team.

And here's what I mean by that. If you were to tell me Kansas is going to run for 2,400 yards this season, I know it's the same output either way, but option A is Devin Neal running for 1,400 of the 24, and the rest of the running backs running for the other 1,000, just divvy them up however you want. Or three running backs all running for 800 each. I know the efficiency and how many yards per carry,

that stuff matters more than everything. And I know the output is the same. But I just feel like having that one-star running back that can just be who, I guess, is the breakout player and is the star of the team. I feel like that matters more than just having a good running game in general. Would you agree with that or do you think it doesn't really matter? Well, I mean, when you when you say running game to me, that's not just talking about the the group of running backs that that includes scheme and that includes blocking so if you're asking me would i rather have like the puka williams from a couple years ago where i know this guy's good but i know nobody around him is very

good would i rather have that or would i rather have good play calling good blocking with average running backs i think i would rather have that but we, good blocking with average running backs. I think I would rather have that, but we don't live in a world where you get to sort of pick and choose, like a choose your own adventure thing. Whereas this team, this Kansas team, I do think Devin Neal has that star power. So knowing that, well, the offensive line isn't going to be great no matter what. Right? I think they've made strides at the end of the year but you're still you're

looking at one of the worst units one of the 20 worst units in college football last year they could be better this year we'll see but what we saw with Puka Williams that year was it wasn't a 12 games where he's going to be a factor every single game like there were games where the offense couldn't move the chains he He couldn't get me blocking and you know, Kansas would score three points. Kansas scored 10 points, 13 points, and it would be a slaughter. But those games where he could find a little crease and turn what most guys would end up with nine yards into a 30 yard explosive play downfield. Those are game changers, right? Those are where you can break the game open. So knowing that that's kind of what Kansas is situated with this year, I would rather have that star player. Maybe I wouldn't choose that every single season with every single team, with every single roster,

but knowing what I know about this team, I would rather have the star potential with your lead back than have that depth, especially knowing no matter how many running backs you have that you believe in, that you feel like could play on this team, realistically, how many of them are going to play a backer? How many of them are going to be game in, game out, on the field, getting touches, producing for this team? Probably two, right? You probably pick Devin Neal and whoever you think that backup's going to be. Now, maybe an injury happens, and maybe you do some gadget stuff

where a guy comes in for certain packages, and that's fine, but by the end of the year, you're talking about probably one guy who has a chance to go over 1,000 yards, and then another dude to rack up 700, 800, if you're lucky. So I would much rather have that guy that I can count on than have a stable of three or four backs, knowing that there's just no realistic way to use them all. And kids, this might have both. I guess we'll wait and see on that. Nick, I appreciate the time as always, man. Thanks, brother. Talk to you next week.

Coming up in just a moment, we'll continue on with our series Top 10 Questions. We're excited to get answered for the KU football season on to question number four. This is Locked on Jayhawks. We continue on here on Locked on Jayhawks. Top 10 questions. We're excited to get answered for the upcoming KU football season. And we are on to the number four question. Are Craig Young and Lonnie Phelps going to be legit stars?

Not just talking about are they going to be good? Are they going to be better than the guy they're replacing? Are they going to, in the case of Lonnie Phelps, just fill in for similar production to what you lost in a really good player with Kyron Johnson are they going to be legit stars if you want to get picky with the word star I guess it kind of just depends on how you view that syntax like does a star have to be a first team all-american a first-round pick in the NFL or a Heisman contender? Because from that standpoint, no.

But I think if you're a guy who, you know, you're a first- or second-team All-Conference type of pick, to me, especially for Kansas, that constitutes as being a legit star. Craig Young has all the athleticism, all the size, everything you could want from a football player to make it happen. 6'3", 6'4", 225, 230 pounds. He said that as a freshman in college, because this is the last time he even got it timed. As a freshman, it's been three years since now, guys tend to get stronger, faster as they go on in college. He ran a 4-4-6-40.

That dude is playing linebacker for you and has the size of a linebacker. He's going to be the best athlete on this defense. Not necessarily the fastest, he's certainly one of the faster players, but he is the best overall athlete on this defense. How much does that translate over into being a star? Because if everything hits with Craig Young, the athleticism, what he could mean to a defense that really needs him, playing that linebacker safety hybrid, which means you're on the field for all three downs. You're having a very big impact on the game. You're not just a two-down linebacker who comes off the field for the nickel or dime

formations for the extra defense back. You're in coverage. You're stopping the game. You're not just a two-down linebacker who comes off the field for the nickel or dime formations for the extra defense back. You're in coverage. You're stopping the run. Is he going to be a legit star? And if he is, that is such a huge boon to the KU defense because it allows you to play constantly in a flexible package where even one of your linebackers is great in coverage. He had great coverage grades when he was at Ohio State. More limited sample size. Still a good sample size. He was playing a lot of safety though with one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State. Is he going to be a legit star? Is he going to be an all-conference type of player? Lonnie Phelps is really interesting too. Comes in, replaces Kyron Johnson. You lost so much by losing Kyron Johnson. And Kyron Johnson probably gives you a little bit more burst, quick twitch athleticism.

You're talking about a DN who was running like a 4-4-40. That's not really the case with Lonnie Phelps. Lonnie Phelps though is probably stronger than Kyron Johnson was. He was a little bit more undersized. Lonnie Phelps also has probably more of a pass rush regimen or repertoire that backs him up, and he has that pass production at Miami of Ohio nearly clearing the double-digit sack mark a season ago. The one thing that Craig Young has on Lonnie Phelps that he'll have to prove is that Craig Young has proven he can do it at the highest level of college football in power five and on a really good team. Lonnie Phelps did it against Mac competition. How is that going to translate up? We saw a lot of players come over from Buffalo last year though. Mike Nowitzki was

one of your best offensive linemen. Rich Miller was one of your best linebackers and Miller wasn't even starting at Buffalo the year before he left. Trevor Wilson was one of your top receivers. I think he'll be able to make that adjustment just fine coming over to the Big 12. If he is a star pass rusher to where it's not just can he have equivalent numbers to what Kyron Johnson is, if he's a star, that means you're getting better production than what you got out of Kyron Johnson. And then that means we've looked at the linebacker core. You've obviously improved it a lot, especially with Craig Young. You're looking at the defensive backs. They were really young.

You added transfers. Should be better. Defensive line has a bunch of older players on it. You added in some guys who just had seasons of improvement, like we've heard a lot about Jeremy Robinson over the offseason. Now if you're getting better at the spot that you had your one of two best defenders is either Kyron Johnson or Kenny Logan, that's how you make that

big impact. That's how you make that big jump defensively. So are they going to be stars? If they're just average players or they don't hit, KU's going to be scratching their head and KU's going to run into some problems defensively so are they going to be stars if they're just average players or they don't hit KU is going to be scratching their head and KU is going to run into some problems defensively but if they are legit stars and they are as good as the hype might indicate and that I think they can be you do have a real chance of this KU defense showing out with a ton of improvement and being one of the more improved defenses in the entire country if you have anything you'd like for the show to talk about or want to follow along in the action, you can reach out at DJohnsonRadio on Twitter.

Tomorrow's episode is going to feature Scott Chasen of Booth Review. We're going to talk some more KU football with Scott and discuss if maybe this is the best KU football team since Mark Mangino? We'll get to the bottom of that. Don't forget to subscribe to the show so you're getting all the latest with Locked on Jayhawks. Give us a five-star review if you could. That'll do it for today's episode.

Have a good rest of your day. See some of you on Rock Chalk Sports Talk later today. Have a good one.