Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Does the 2023-2024 Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Team Have Enough 3-Point Shooting to Win the Title?

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we examine, does Kansas basketball have enough three-point shooting to win the national championship in the 2023 to 2024 season? What would it have to look like for it to happen? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Johnson, you can hear me as well. Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 p.m. on KLWN in Lawrence. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:00:43 Thank you to all the everydayers out there. And you can find us wherever you get any of your podcasts. You can also find us, like and subscribe to the show on our YouTube page with Locked on Jayhawks. On today's edition of the show, we are going to be talking some KU basketball. The big, I guess, concern or question so far to this point for KU hoops has been, do they have enough three-point shooting, right? You think about the possible, you know, starting with DeJuan Timberlake or if you want to do

Starting point is 00:01:14 somebody else, but Nick Timberlake, you know, KJ Adams, Kevin McCuller, and Hunter Dickinson. It's like, well, with DeJuan Harris, like we know he can hit set three point shots at a pretty high rate but he's not going to be somebody who's shooting a bunch of them per game and he's not going to be shooting them like off you know the dribble a ton or screens or something with Nick Timberlake that's what he's being brought in to do but he's one guy if that enough right like Kevin McCuller has been consistently high 20s, low 30s throughout his collegiate career. KJ Adams, like maybe you have more of a mid-range game, but I don't know that you're really trusting there's going to be like a three-point game this year. And then Hunter Dickinson seems to have a good stroke from the outside.

Starting point is 00:01:55 But again, how many is he going to take, right? Like is he going to take, because he took like just under two per game last year. I think the idea is for that to go up to help his pro potential and help the team because you know, you need more three point shooting on this team and stuff. But maybe it's three per game. Like the Morris twins were around one and a half, two per game, Perry Ellis, same thing around two per game. Like you could see it getting up to maybe three, but the point is where are the numbers going to come from? And then you look at the bench too. And it's like, well,

Starting point is 00:02:24 I don't know that I'll Marcoson profiles to being like a great three-point shooter so like you go down the list and it's like where this team getting the three-point shooting not that you feel like they're going to be terrible at it but is it going to be a strength because you think about last year last year's team ended up being about nationally average in three-point shooting they were around 33 34 last year which it wasn't a problem but it wasn't really a strength either and that was with Grady Dick which you take him off the roster your best three-point shooter and then Jalen Wilson was your second best three-point shooter at least by you know kind of volume and stuff like that um you know what does that mean for this year's team so do they have enough three-point shooting

Starting point is 00:03:01 well first thing I want to start with is the past title winners what do you need to be able to win a national title from three-point range can you get to that point okay since 2002 so the ken palm era although i think ken palm has actually expanded past a couple years so we'll have to add those into the data here at some point nonetheless since 2002 a couple decades worth of data, the worst three-point shooting team to win the national title ranked 237th in the country in three-point percentage. That was that 2011 UConn team led by Kemba Walker that, you know, Kemba just got on a crazy streak. And obviously KU fans will tell you that they probably should have won the title that year. You beat VCU, then you get Butler, and then you're playing that UConn team in the national championship at that point. But the next worst team in three-point percentage, because 237, that's not great.

Starting point is 00:03:55 That does give you some leeway this year. Then again, that UConn team, it's not that they were an aberration. They were still three seed, won the Big East tournament, all that sort of stuff. But you don't like to pick the exceptions to the rule, right? Sometimes it's better to use the median when you're reviewing things that gets rid of the outliers, both positive and negative. So the next worst was 200th in the country, which was 2013 Louisville. Now, one thing that Louisville team did that you're probably not going to do is they were like full court press. They created a lot of extra possessions by forcing turnovers. Also a really good offensive

Starting point is 00:04:28 rebounding team. Now this team might end up being a really good offensive rebounding team too, but I don't know. We'll, we'll see how much, how many turnovers they do force. They forced a lot last year. Maybe they can do that again this year with DeJuan and Kevin McCuller, but it's different when you're not running a lot of full court press like that Louisville team was kind of doing. So I don't know. But in theory, if Kansas can be at least as good as last year's team from three, that would put you above what UConn in 2011 and Louisville into in 2013 were. Now, you could also say, though, that, you know, it's been like a decade since those types of teams have won. It has the game changed more with pace and space with, you know, small ball fives stretch fours with the expanded three point line that those are no longer applicable. I don't know. But if we're going to go off those plateaus last year's team ranked one hundred and forty third in the country in three point percentage, which I think that could actually be good enough if you do the other things very well, right?

Starting point is 00:05:26 Like, you know, it's get a bunch of or get a good amount of offense. If you're not going to shoot well, get offensive rebounds, play really good defense, right? Like even the 2020 team for Kansas that was going to be the number one overall seed and be the favorite to win the national title with the tournament. That team wasn't a great three-point shooting team it was about average but they were really good at rebounding on both ends they were elite defensively and they were really good at two-point shots so you make up for in other ways there isn't just one way to skin a cat it's not you have to do this you have to do that you have to do this there are like bare minimums though where it's like you have to at least be decent at this otherwise they're just going to clog the paint or do this or that right so there are certain levels to this now maybe threes um

Starting point is 00:06:09 like i said if you want to look at the last five national championships to the idea of them mattering more um all of the last five national champions were top c5 in the country in three-point percentage. The 2017 North Carolina team, which would be, if you go back one more year, so the last six national champions, was 148th. So realistically, you want to be in the range of what's more often because 16 of the last 21 national champions so about three of the last four national champions were top 65 in three-point percentage in the year they won the title so there's a couple ways of looking at this there's a way of looking at of saying oh you just need to clear louisville and connecticut there's the next way of looking at it which is like well what if

Starting point is 00:07:02 we just clear north carolina which was 148th in 2017? That's recent enough, right? And then there's the other way of looking at it, where it's like, if you want the best chance to win a title, you probably want to fall in the bucket of where three of every of the last four national champions has been in, which is top 65 in the country in three-point percentage. So really, there's two buckets here. Bucket one, KU is elite on defense. They're elite on two point offense. They do little things well, like they turn opponents over and they don't turn it over too much while being solid on both the offensive and defensive glass. And then if you're average from three, that's all good. Like that,

Starting point is 00:07:41 that was that 2017 North Carolina team. They weren't very good from three, but that was an elite rebounding team on both ends. They defended well, they shot twos well. Right. And that's actually, I will say like that actually can be a real scenario for this team because you know, you think of having DeJuan Harris and all these ball handlers, you should be good at avoiding turnovers. DeJuan Harris, Kevin McCuller, you should be good at forcing turnovers at the other end. If you're going to play, you know, KJ Adams next to Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCuller, who's going to rebounder at the three, that should be a good rebounding team, right? Like you should be able to do all those things. Well, you should be able to have a good defense.

Starting point is 00:08:15 You should be able to have a good two point offense with Hunter Dickinson and players who are good at cutting and driving. Like KJ is a good driver. Kevin's a good cutter and a good driver, right? So you should actually be able to do all those things that maybe you can weather the storm if you're more in that you know top 150 range from three-point range the issue though is it gives you less margin for error which you never want to have so it's not that it would eliminate them in the title if they're 138th

Starting point is 00:08:41 in the country in three-point percentage it just makes it so that that margin fair on those other things becomes more prevalent. So that's bucket one. Bucket two is where most teams have been. You are in the top 65 in three-point percentage in the country, which means typically about 36.3%, 36% if we just want to round it off, or higher. Be 36% or higher from three in a given year. And it gives you more margin for error in that. What if you're only average in avoiding turnovers?

Starting point is 00:09:13 What if you're only average enforcing turnovers? What if you're only average at rebounding as opposed to elite or at two points unit, right? It gives you more margin for error that you have to be great at everything else, basically. So that's the importance of that, which means there's kind of two benchmarks here that we're It gives you more margin for error that you have to be great at everything else, basically. So that's the importance of that, which means there's kind of two benchmarks here that we're going to discuss and go into. There's going to be a lot of numbers that I'm going to be tossing around. So I apologize if there's some number salad coming at you. Just bear with me. Basically, there's two benchmarks.

Starting point is 00:09:38 Benchmark for bucket one is shooting about 34, 34 and a half percent from three, which gets you in line with bucket one, do other things well, and then you'll be good enough from three. And then bucket two includes shooting 36% or better from three. Either way though, the floor, you need to get to probably at least 34%. Let's discuss how you're going to get there,

Starting point is 00:09:58 how you're going to even get up 23s per game. That's what you averaged last year. You can average more, you can average less. We'll talk about that coming up. First though, this episode of the show is brought to you by eMotors. For a championship team, it's all about making sure every player is a perfect fit. It's the same when it comes to your vehicle. Every part needs to fit just right. So the next time you need parts and accessories, head to eBay Motors. With eBay guaranteed fit, you can be sure every part you need fits right the first time around.

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Starting point is 00:10:55 Exclusions apply. How is Canada even going to get two of threes? Last year they shot 20 of them, which, I don't know, are they going to shoot that many this year? Are they going to shoot less? You could argue they're going to shoot less having Hunter Dickinson inside. But I don't know, man. Like 23s per game is not like an extravagant number.

Starting point is 00:11:19 That seems to be around like national average. So let's just go with that. It's a nice, easy round number. Because when you look at it last year you shot 20 per game that was with jaylen shooting 5.8 per game and grady shooting 5.7 so you got about 11 and a half of your attempts per game from jaylen wilson and grady dick combined right so that doesn't you didn't get a ton from from everywhere else how are you going to get to this number? Right. Okay. So here's what I have it marked out as.

Starting point is 00:11:47 We're going to give Nick Timberlake five per game. Um, the thing that holds him back from Jalen and Grady getting closer to six, I think is probably the minutes like both Jalen and Grady played 32 minutes per game. Now, in the case of Jalen, he was obviously much more than a three-point shooter. In the case of Grady, he was mostly a three-point shooter, but he still did other stuff. I think Nick Timberlake, yeah, he can do other stuff. He can dunk. He can play in transition.

Starting point is 00:12:11 I'm not trying to limit him to that, but I think even more so in his role with Kansas, he will be more of just a spot-up shooter than what Grady Dick was. So I think you might get off a little higher rate when he's out on the floor, but he might only play 24, 25 minutes per game as opposed to the 32. So five threes per game for Timberlake, and honestly it might end up being closer to four. We'll give him five. Artario Morris, we're in four pointers per game.

Starting point is 00:12:36 He actually averaged 2.33 pointers per game in 11 minutes per game last year for Texas. So, I mean, if he was playing 30 minutes per game, that basically would work out to that. He's averaging over six threes per game last year for Texas. So, I mean, if he was playing 30 minutes per game, that basically would work out to that. He's averaging over six threes per game. I'm giving him four here. Honestly, this could end up at four and a half or five. I think if you just said Nick take an arterial Morris or combining to average about nine, three pointers a game, that sounds about right for me, but it is crazy because those are probably going to be your two bulk three point guys. And one of them is going to be coming off the bench,

Starting point is 00:13:04 at least to start the year. So kind of interesting there, but that gets you to nine. Then you have Kevin McCuller. Last year, he shot 2.9 threes per game. Now, if the three point shooting does improve for Kevin, maybe you can get up to three and a half, four attempts per game. But because it was a 2.9 last year, we've seen the track record over the past couple of years.

Starting point is 00:13:23 It just seems like might kind of be where it's at at this point. Um, we're going to give him three, three pointers per game. That brings you as a team. Then with DeJuan Harris, he was at 2.1, three pointers attempted per game last year. Let's say that goes up a little bit. We'll go two and a half gives you 14 and a half, three pointers per game as a team. Then Hunter Dickinson, he was at 1.7 last year, 2.1 the year before. Let's say it goes up again. He's at 2.5 this year. Okay, that puts you at 17 threes attempted per game as a team. Let's say Marcus Adams carves out a role playing 10 minutes per game

Starting point is 00:13:57 or something. He gets you one. Or if you just want to say that, I guess, between Marcus Adams, Elmarco Jackson, Parker Brown, KJ Adams, Jamari McDowell, those five guys combined for like three threes a game. And it might be more. Like what if Elmarco gets up one and a half or two threes per game, right? What if Marcus Adams gets up one and a half or two?

Starting point is 00:14:22 What if Parker Brown gets up one per game, right? What if, I don't know, KJ Adams might not get up any or you might get more if Jamari McDowell's part of the rotation it might be more so honestly you could probably guess for more than that we could probably even say Adams Jackson and then Brown Adams the other Adams KJ and Jamari combined for four threes per game and that even gets you to 21 threes per game as a team to be honest i actually think they're going to have a higher amount of threes taken per game this year than they did last year because that was kind of a low number i think you have at least more decent options i guess would be one way a little bit that i would look at this because i i do think marcus adams and jamari mcdowell can be good three-point shooters and i think even

Starting point is 00:15:02 though you're going to get more shots inside from Hunter Dickinson, it's going to open up more guys from three because of that, because of doubles coming in, that you might even end up with 21, 22 three-pointers per game. The more important question, though, here is how does Kansas get to the right percentage? How can they get to that big mark of being in bucket two? 36% from three, at the very least getting to 34, 34.5% from three to qualify for bucket one.

Starting point is 00:15:27 Let's get to that coming up here with Locked on Jayhawks. Okay, let's get to the math behind KU having that good enough shooting to fit into that title bucket two, being a 36% three-point shooting team, because last year they were closer to 34%. If we go based on the totals that we mentioned in the last part of it,

Starting point is 00:15:45 because that's why I had to mention the totals, not just how do you get to the amount, but if I just say, oh, you shoot 40%, you shoot 30%, okay, it's going to impact the team shooting percentage more or less based on who shoots more or less from three. So if we can assume Nick Timberlake can shoot 40% from three, if we can assume or Terry O'Morris can shoot 36% from three, he was over 40 over the last month or two of the season, closer to 50. Honestly,

Starting point is 00:16:11 again, actually pretty high volume. When you consider the amount of minutes that he was playing, I think there's potential for him to improve. Uh, he shot 33% to begin with. So going up to 36 as a sophomore and an area that typically we see guys get better as they stay makes sense. Kevin shoots 30%. So that's not asking for some big increase there. Uh, DeJuan and Hunter Dickinson a sophomore and an area that typically we see guys get better as they stay makes sense kevin shoots 30 so that's not asking for some big increase there uh dewan and hunter dickinson combined to shoot 35 now this could be way higher way lower right because we've seen dewan shoot 40 from three we've seen dickinson shoot 40 from three my only question is when the attempts go up when there's more you know kind of put on you on the defensive end um about them

Starting point is 00:16:47 watching out for you from three does the do the volume go up but the percentage goes down so this could be a low number on it but we're just going to say combined 35 and then the combination of marcus adams marco jackson parker brown kj adams jamar mcdowell uh go on to shoot 30 from three which is not a high number none of those numbers right like sound that crazy right like nick timber like maybe you'd be like yeah it's probably better to assume he'll shoot 37 38 with arteria moore's maybe better to assume 34 35 right but again i could say oh what if kevin shoots 32 what if duan and dickinson combined to shoot 38 what if that collection of of those uh five players that i mentioned

Starting point is 00:17:25 shoots 33 instead of 30 right those are all reasonable numbers so based on those numbers that i gave out on the exact numbers per game that we gave every player that would equate to as a team ku shooting 34.95 from three which gets you above the first bucket and at least into that range of if we do the other things well we can win a title with this three-point shooting which means you don't need that much of a bump either to get into bucket two which is the bucket of 36 from three and being top 65 nationally and being in that range of 16 of the last 21 national champions so all you got to do is, you know, bump up a few guys, right? Like could arterial Morris shoot 37, 38% from three.

Starting point is 00:18:09 I don't think that's crazy. Could Kevin McCuller shoot 33 to 34% from three. Not crazy either. Could DeJuan Harris and Hunter Dickinson get to high 30% from three collectively? Yeah, of course. Can the other bunch get from 30% to 34%? Yeah, of course. All those could possible.

Starting point is 00:18:26 And I think really the one that I highlight is Kevin. If he shoots his career average, KU, like that's who this comes down to me. If Kevin McCuller shoots at his career average, about 29, 30% from three, it's probably more likely that KU is going to be closer to being that 34, 34 and a half percent three point shooting team, that kind of nationally average three point shooting team, which can be enough to win the title, but gives you a smaller margin for error. But if Kevin can grow his game from three point range, which would be huge for his pro potential as well, that could be maybe the biggest way because he could even shoot another three per game. It could be up to 33, 34% from three for KU to be a top 65 three-point shooting team. And the difference there from where they were last year or where they could be projected now is a lot closer than you might think. So for instance, in this equation,

Starting point is 00:19:21 if we just go back and Kevin goes from, we keep everyone the same. Timberlake's still at 40. Arterio's still at 36. The combination of those five players still at 30%. The combination of Dickinson and DeJuan still at 35%. If we keep all those numbers the same, but move Kevin McCuller from 30 to just 33 from three Kansas goes up to about 35

Starting point is 00:19:49 and a half percent as a team which almost gets you there on its own so to kind of summarize this I think Kansas should actually be able to at least get to last season's numbers easier than I thought and there's definitely a I think that's the difference here. The floor of this year's team is probably lower from three. Like what if, what if, you know, none of this works from three, right? Because some of those could be optimistic views. The floor could be lower from three, which is scary, but I think the avenue to getting to 35 to 36% from three as a team is also a lot easier than I would have thought going into this, to which I'll say I don't view this as a great three-point shooting team, but it's pretty clear to me that they have a lot more

Starting point is 00:20:31 than you might have expected. And the range to getting up to 36% is not that hard to map out, and it's not that unrealistic that, you know, I still, when I'm talking about what are questions about this team, what are weaknesses about this team, what are weaknesses about this team? Yeah. And in comparison to other things they could do well, maybe it should still go up there, but maybe it shouldn't.

Starting point is 00:20:52 Like maybe it's not as much of a weakness as, as I kind of have been playing it up to be, or thinking it was going to be based on kind of just the, the assumption of what your lack of floor spacing might look like for this team. They might have enough from three point range and they might have more than enough to make this thing work. All right, that's going to do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find us anywhere you get any of your podcasts. You can hit me up on Twitter, at DJohnsonRadio. You can also like and subscribe to the show on our YouTube page.

Starting point is 00:21:19 Have a good rest of your day. We'll see you next time with Locked on Jayhawks. Later.

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Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Does the 2023-2024 Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Team Have Enough 3-Point Shooting to Win the Title?

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