Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - EARLY TEST IN A 'NEW' STADIUM: Kansas Jayhawks Football vs Fresno State Bulldogs Week 0 Preview

Starting point is 00:00:00 Week zero is finally here. It's almost here. KU of Fresno's day, we're going to preview the game on today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks and what KU needs to do to come out on top. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on podcast network,

Starting point is 00:00:24 your team every day. Hello, Derek Johnson here, At T. Johnson Radio on Twitter. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. Thank you to the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show, especially those everydayers who stuck with us through the off season because we are officially back. Well, close to being back. Week zero is right on the precipice. And we got Kansas for Fresno State. Love that they're playing week zero. So we get this a week early. We're going to get into top storylines. News from the week. Fresno State scouting report. Matchups of the game and more on today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks. Let's just get right into it right there. I think the big news of the week just has to be about, I guess you could say the stadium would be the big news of the week. And we'll get into that in storylines, but the two deep coming out for KU football. And so we get the first look at the two deep. And we had some conversations about some of the big takeaways and stuff.

Starting point is 00:01:19 But as it pertains to on the field, some of the takeaways we had were some young players or Cole Ballard being QB2. You hope that doesn't have an impact in terms of the field. You hope it's just the starters and everybody's healthy. But we also found out on Hawk Talk, like later that day that the 2DEEP was released, that, you know, apparently one of those spots that was listed as an or, which is right tackle between Nolan Gorsica and Enrique Cruz, is actually been won out by Enrique Cruz. And so I think that's a good thing in terms of you brought this talented offensive tackle with starting experience over. the fact that he had to earn his way and earn that starting spot, I think speaks good to now how you feel maybe a little better about the tackle spots. Also, we heard from Lance Lightbold that Bryson Canty and DJ Graham were kind of getting into the practice swing. So good news there on

Starting point is 00:02:07 the injury front from KU. No idea. The other guys at this point, you know, kind of coming into it and, you know, where else that's going to have an impact on the two deep or who plays in this game for KU. But certainly we have better idea of who's going to be out there for more of the game. I think the top storylines coming into this one. I mean, the top storyline to me, outside of it being week zero and just in general for college football fans, like football's back. It's the new stadium from Kansas, right? This was actually in the KU game notes. So I'm going to read from that. The changes to David Booth, Kansas Memorial Stadium are the first rebuild since the stadium was originally constructed in 1921. So it's been over a hundred years. A hundred

Starting point is 00:02:47 years. This was well due. It also mentions in the game notes the original grand opening to David Booth, Kansas Memorial Stadium, came on October 3rd, 1921, when Kansas defeated Kansas State 21 to 7. So that's good, good vibes, good juju there in front of, how about this, 50, 160 fans. Now, they already announced to sell out for this one. It's going to be a little bit more than that. It's going to be like 41,000 people in attendance for this one as opposed to the 5,000 that were there back in 1921, which honestly, for 1921 standards, like football wasn't, you know, what it is now. That's actually pretty impressive. They were able to do that.

Starting point is 00:03:22 That's obviously the big deal. What does the stadium look like? How do fans enjoy it? The new food, the new video board, the new sight lines, how does everything look? The hype, football being back, the team feeling more comfortable at home. There's a lot that goes into this being a new stadium. And I think the hype is real for KU football fans. Beyond that, this is the first matchup between the two that we've ever seen.

Starting point is 00:03:42 KU's never played Fresno State. It's interesting because Fresno, you think of California, they're in central California. That's more of a blue-collar, you know, agricultural area of California. So, you know, they're going to be coming in ready to work hard and kind of used to, I guess, the Kansas terrain, so to speak, in a different way. This is also the first week zero game for KU that they've ever had. They've ever had a week zero game before. You can only do it apparent. Well, I don't know if you can only do it.

Starting point is 00:04:08 I'm sure there's some exceptions. I know one of the exceptions is that if you play a team who plays Hawaii or if you play Hawaii, that you can have a week zero game because you have that extra buy you need for the travel, you know, with Hawaii that causes. and because of that, they allow for the extra biweek. So they allow to get that extra buy week. You need to play in week zero. So then if you schedule somebody, boom, and that's how we wind up with this game in week zero. This will also be the first time if Kansas can win it,

Starting point is 00:04:34 that Kansas would win five straight season openers since 05 to 09. Also, Lance Leipold would be the first Kansas head coach since A.R. Kennedy, who we talked about earlier this week in terms of KU should claim a national title to win their first five season openers as head coach, but they got to win the game first. again, those nuggets from the KU game notes. Lots of new faces with big shoes to fill. I guess you would say for both teams is a storyline coming into this one,

Starting point is 00:04:59 but we're going to focus on the Kansas part. For Kansas, Devin Neal, no longer part of the program. He's been just a legend for KU and was a mainstay for Kansas. You're not going to have them out there. All the production you lost at the receiver position, those bookend tackles that you had last year that were very good. I mean, KU's had back-to-back years with great tackles with Dominic Puni the year before, too. You look in the defense side of the ball, you know, I think they're going

Starting point is 00:05:23 to actually have more athleticism from the linebacker core, but you certainly lost a lot of production there, and I loved me some J.B. Brown. I mean, we know what they lost in secondary. That was loaded with star players for KU. A lot of new faces, a lot of big shoes to fill for some players who are filling into those roles, whether they're transfers or young players stepping up. And Fresno State's in kind of a similar position, not necessarily with the same positions, but you look at Fresno State, they've got a new quarterback, quarterback left from Michigan. They've got like an entirely new receiver core. They've got a freshman left tackle among others.

Starting point is 00:05:56 I mean, it's especially in the office side of the ball. And anytime you bring in a new coach nowadays in the transfer portal, that's going to be the case. Both teams with a lot of new faces. And, you know, that's part of it too, that it is the first game. You're going to be feeling each other out, but that's the difficulty of the first game. You're not just feeling out your opponent and figuring out, what scheme they're running, you're just trying to kind of, you know, on the fly, figure out what you're doing, you know, figure out what your personnel has in a game-like

Starting point is 00:06:25 situation, figure out what you're doing well, what you're not doing well. And that's part of this, too, getting to know your personnel a little bit more. Because it's one thing in practice, it's another thing in a game under the bright lights. And for Fresno, they have a brand new head coach. So that adds some intrigue from their perspective for Kansas. It's the new stadium in addition to a lot of the new players. one of the things I find interesting coming into this game. So it's a little under a two touchdown spread in favor of Kansas.

Starting point is 00:06:52 Fresno State is not one of those pushover group of five teams. This has been a very successful group of five program coming out of the Mountain West. And in fact, they've played a lot of these Power 4 back in the day Power 5 games and played a lot of these teams really tough. Last season, Fresno State only lost to UCLA by seven points. They only lost by 20 at Michigan, but that was a game who was 23 to 10, and Fresno was at the Michigan 10-yard line with four minutes to go. They threw a pick six. If they get a touchdown, it's a one-score game with like three minutes to go. 2023, they won at Purdue, 39, 35, and they won at Arizona State 290.

Starting point is 00:07:29 2022. They only lost Oregon State by three. They beat Washington State by 23 in their bowl game. 2021. They only lost at Oregon by a touchdown. They won at 13th ranked at the time, UCLA by three points. 2019, they only lost by eight at USC. They lost in double overtime to Minnesota, 2018.

Starting point is 00:07:46 They won at UCLA by 24. They beat Arizona State in a bowl game by 11, and they only lost to Minnesota by seven. So point being, you go through that resume, they are consistently playing these power four, power five teams at a very tough level. And I think to that notion, given how their new head coach wants to grind things out, he had a lot of success in North Dakota State. He probably has a bit of a tie end to Chris Climend to where wouldn't surprised me. Chris Kleiman was helping him with, you know, some scheme stuff or some game prep to get

Starting point is 00:08:16 him ready for this game. You combine all of those things. I do believe this is going to be a good game. I do believe that, you know, Fresno State's going to be hanging around in this one to the very end of the game. It's just going to come down to can Kansas win a game where you're making the play's late? Not necessarily that it's a one-score game, but maybe it's a seven-point game with four minutes to go. Can you engineer a drive or six minutes to go to at least get a field goal to put the game away or something like that? I think Kansas is going to have to, you know, And not necessarily winning on the last thing in play is what I'm saying. You're going to have to play this one all the way through and win it to the very end.

Starting point is 00:08:46 Fresno's too good of a team to just be able to kind of roll through. This isn't playing an FCS game. This isn't the next game they're going to have against Wagner. So Fresno, very respectable program. Let's get more into their scouting report. What they bring to the table next, this is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Rouguette. Guys, you've probably heard of Viaguer or C. Alice.

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Starting point is 00:10:12 Thanks to joining us on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. So we're talking the game preview on today's episode. We'll have even more preview on Friday's episode. We're going to get to the keys to the game, players to watch, and our Fandual Friday on Friday's episode. But continuing on here on this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks, we're going to get to the Fresno State Scouting Report. And you look at the Bulldogs, they went six and seven last season.

Starting point is 00:10:33 Now, prior to that, they had been building up some, you know, nine or ten wins seasons. it's very interesting. Jeff Tedford, who was the former Cal coach for a while. Coach Darren Rogers had a lot of success with Cal. And I think before he was at Cal, before Cal he was at Fresno State. But anyway, he ended up like, I think retiring at one point, it was like, oh, Cal, whatever it was, ends up going to Fresno State. They do really well. And then he had a couple seasons where like maybe it was health related or whatever that he had to step away from the program. They didn't do as well. And then he'd come back like the next year and they'd immediately do better. So that will be a question for me is like, how good is this Fresno program without

Starting point is 00:11:05 Jeff Tedford. I do think they made a good head coaching hire, though, here with Matt ends, who is their new head coach. He was the defensive coordinator for North Dakota States, Chris Clyman. He was also at D.C. at Northern Iowa, which is a very successful FCS program and South Dakota. Another successful FCS program. He was also the head coach at North Dakota State. And they won two national titles. They went 60 and 11 in some of those years. I mean, we've seen it with Lance Leipold. Like, don't discount having success at a lower level than D1. And he had a lot of that success. Now, you could say, okay, well, he took over a very good situation at North Dakota State that was set up for him.

Starting point is 00:11:42 And so you could actually look at some of the seasons where they were losing two or three games and say, yeah, but before him, they were only losing zero or one games every year. Like, was he able to keep the standard up or was that just inevitable? I don't know. Last year, he was USC's linebackers coach. And, I mean, it's not just him, but USC went from 105th to 48th in defensive SP Plus. a season ago. So he obviously was part of that. I think it was a good hire for Fresno State. So Phil Steele picked them sixth in the Mountain West. ESPNSP Plus has them fourth. And then ESPNSPI has them third. So kind of in that third to sixth range in the Mountain West, somewhere between like 70th to

Starting point is 00:12:23 90th in the country. And so this isn't the same Mountain West, I think, as it was last year where Boise State was, I mean, you had Ashton Genty as a Heisman runner up and a legit playoff team. And then you had a really good UNLV team followed by some others that had strong seasons. Boise State should still be good this year. I don't think they're as good, though, as they were last year. And then I don't know that there's that other UNLV this year. So it's a little bit more wide open. You look at some of the player personnel, Phil Steele gives them for position groups.

Starting point is 00:12:57 There's 12 teams in the Mountain West Conference. he ranks them number seven at quarterback number five are running back number nine at receiver eighth at offensive line fifth on the d-line seventh at linebacker number one in the defensive backfield and number two on special teams they are just 112th in returning production according to ESPN SP Plus a big reason why we talked about this earlier they lost their quarterback their top three receivers their top three offense linemen 11 of their top 16 defenders by snap count they did add over 20 transfers and again they've traditionally been a really successful program that you expect them to continue to develop guys

Starting point is 00:13:33 kind of moving up behind them. Deep dive on their quarterback situation. They named E.J. Warner, the starting quarterback. Warner is the son of Kurt Warner, you know, former multi-time NFL MVP. He's also the younger brother of Cade Warner. We talked about the tie-ins with Chris Clyman and Matt Entz. Well, Cade Warner played at K State. He was a successful receiver there, and now his younger brother gets the start against Kansas.

Starting point is 00:13:54 So I don't know. Anyway, he can help. I'm sure he's helping out as well. but you look at E.J. Warner, he's played a lot of football between his years at Temple and then last year at Rice. 32 career games played 60% completion rates, a little bit lower there. 6.6 yards per attempt. Again, that's on a little bit of the lower side. 58 touchdowns, but 37 interceptions. So he'll put him up for grabs. A lot of yards, 8,800 yards, not much of a runner, negative 31 career rushing yards. Last season, he had a 41.1 total QBR. So that,

Starting point is 00:14:27 was on the lower end of things, but his PFF grade was actually better, 66.7. So that might tell you that, you know, maybe the context around him wasn't the best fit. And what I think makes him interesting to me with this team with Fresno State, you think about what Matt ends, you know, the offense that they're running at North Dakota State, similar to I guess you would say the offense, what Kansas State has, and they want to be a ball control, a power physical football team. A, I think about quarterbacks that can run a little bit. So I do think that's interesting with the fit there.

Starting point is 00:14:57 But the thing that I think will help E.J. Warner is you think about that power style type of offense, they're going to run a lot of play action. And when you look at E.J. Warner last season at Rice, he had 10 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions on non-play action. He had seven touchdowns to two interceptions on play action. He was also solid against the Blitz. So I think he'll be a better fit for this offense than maybe he was in the Rice offense. He also throws a pretty good deep ball. He will throw interceptions over the middle of the field. nine interceptions over that middle third of the field last season. So that means the KU's safeties and linebackers have to be ready because if you get one, you might get one or two in the game.

Starting point is 00:15:35 You better take advantage. You better make that catch. Okay, key stats for the game. We're going to start doing these for our scouting reports. Five happy stats and five sad stats for KU's opponent. Let's start with the happy stats, the good stats for Fresno State. Their defense last season finished 25th nationally in EPA per play. So very successful defense.

Starting point is 00:15:53 You bring in a good defensive coach as well. you would imagine they're going to continue to be a good defense this year. That also includes them being 28th in EPA per play against the past. So specifically, they were a very good pass defense. We look at what they have coming back. Again, the number one DB room, according to Phil Steele, they should be good against the pass again. They were 76th percentile nationally, so in the top quartet of college football, in average third down distance last year.

Starting point is 00:16:18 So that's a good number there. And then they were 41st in the country, so you would say above average, solid. in average field position. So this is a team that worked special teams well. They have a good amount in returning there that they should be a strong special teams unit once again. Now, I didn't get to the fifth happy stat. We'll get to that as part of the sad stats because they're,

Starting point is 00:16:39 you'll see. Anyway, to the sad stats, they were just 13th percentile. So that's not good. In run explosion rate last season, they weren't getting a lot of explosive runs. It was a lot of, you know, trying to just two, three yards and a cloud of dust.

Starting point is 00:16:52 They weren't getting those 10, 15, 20-yard rips. That's really going to help an offense move the ball down the field at a high rate. So not really explosive offense. But adding to that, another sad stat, 128th in the country in success rate running the football. So it wasn't even just that they're not getting an explosive plays. Basically what success rate measures is it's not necessarily like, okay, if it's third and two and you get a two-yard run, that's a successful run. If it's third and one, you get a one-yard run. That's a successful run.

Starting point is 00:17:24 If it's third and three, you get a two-yard run, it's a not-success run. And I forget the number on first down. I think you have to get like half the yardage on a given down. So, like, if you have a five-yard run on first down, it's successful. If you have a three-yard run on first down, not successful. But a three-yard run on third-and-two is successful, which kind of makes sense. So it's kind of a basic way of looking at things, but it gives you an idea. They weren't even that.

Starting point is 00:17:44 Like, you think the Kansas City Chiefs last year in football, they were not an explosive running team, but they were a successful one because they were. third and two, Kareem Hunt will get you three yards. You know, he's not going to break off for 20 yards very often. That was not first of state. They just weren't good at it all around. Now, this is their final happy stat. Elijah Gilliam got just 3.4 yards per carry last year.

Starting point is 00:18:03 He was the team leader in rushes, 99 carries, just 335 yards. Their backup, Bryson Donaldson, who's their starter now, Gilliam has graduated. Donaldson is the backup. Donaldson actually had 30 more rushing yards than Gilliam on 40 less carries. So he might fix the ground game. himself. I mean, you're talking about somebody who's getting six yards per carry, especially given they finished 30th on pro football focus and run block grade as a team. Although, again, they did lose a lot of their linemen from a season ago. So it's not totally

Starting point is 00:18:33 congruent there. Other sad stats, though, they were just 74th in success rate defensively against the run last season. That run block one was the final happy one, by the way. But yeah, 74th in success rate defensively against the run. So about average to below average in success rate against the run, but that becomes more pertinent against Kansas. Overall, as an offense, they were just 108th in EPA per play and 116th in success rate in 2024. So overall, they just weren't a very good offense last year. And that'll be something where the KU defense, you know, you want to see them take advantage to that. Don't give up 31 points to Fresno State to where we're going to have questions about what the defense is, right? And then the last one we have

Starting point is 00:19:12 here, they were just 103rd in pass rush grade on pro football focus. So they do have some interesting talent on the defensive line, but didn't always equate to the best pass rush a season ago. It was more about the secondary, I think, for Fresno State, which might be again for this one. Okay, we're going to continue on with our matchups of the game. Where's this game going to be decided? We'll get to that next. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Open Phone. If you're running a business, Every missed call is money left on the table. Think about the last time you needed a disservice.

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Starting point is 00:21:30 So what are the key matchups of the game for Kansas against Fresno State? We'll start with first down, open field tackling. This is just something that I think is always difficult for teams in the first game of the season. Maybe you had a few scrimmages over the course of fall camp, but you're not fully hitting or tackling every game. And that can be a little bit more difficult or every practice for the defense to where you have to kind of reel that in, especially when you are playing a real opponent in Fresno State in the first game

Starting point is 00:21:57 where it's not just going to come easy. And then beyond that, Fresno State has a strong running back in Donaldson at breaking tackles, making people miss. And here's the other key stat. During the Lance Leipoldera, they are 15 and 4 when they give up 4.4 or less yards per carry, 15 and 4. When they give up four and a half yards per carry or more, they're seven and 24, okay, 15 and 4 versus 7 and 24. The good news is Fresno only had three games of four and a half yards per carry or more last season, but the bad news, it's a new coach.

Starting point is 00:22:27 She wants to make pounding the rock and playing tough their identity and the back and running back is average in six yards per carry. If we do look to the KUK State matchups between Lance Leipold and K State to have an idea of like, okay, is that stylistically how they're going to play? Well, K-State averaged 5.9 yards per carry in 2024, so that's not great. But that actually was below K-State's season average. They averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the 2020 game. That also was about half a yard below K-State's average. Now, they were above in the two previous years, 2022, which was just not a good defense in 2021, which was just not a good team overall for KU, even though they finished the year strong.

Starting point is 00:23:04 So it depends what you want to look at. But if you want to look at the two most recent seasons, KU held K-State below their average, so you would hope that translates over to Fresno State as well. But you got to tackle to be able to do it. Second down, getting playmakers the ball. I want to see what Emmanuel Henderson and Camp Pickett can do in the open field. I mean, these are two guys who do a lot with the ball in their hands. Henderson's a former, you know, high-end four-star running back who went to Alabama.

Starting point is 00:23:28 Cam Pickett did a majority of his work and got a majority of his yards after catch for Ball State the season ago. You know, do we see other players who were good with the ball in their hands in the open field? And going back to the tackling thing, like Fresno State's going to be trying to get down their timing on tackling as well. So last time we saw Jim Zabrowski calling plays, it was the bowl game and the guaranteed rate bowl, and it was a masterclass by KU and hitting explosive plays. And we really saw that especially to the receivers. It was also against a Mountain West opponent. Plus, not to mention, if you want to say getting your playmakers ball, like what does Daniel Hyshaw look like?

Starting point is 00:24:04 Because he could be ready for a huge breakout season for KU this season. Third down. Third downs. Kansas has consistently been really strong third down team with Jalen Daniels as the quarterback and in recent years with Lance Leipold. So last year, Kansas actually, despite the five and seven record, Kansas was third nationally in third down success rate. They were over 54 percent, which is bonkers for a team who went five and seven. But Fresno State was really good defensively on third down. They were 36 nationally in defensive success rate on such down. So kind of a strength versus strength if you're looking at last year's numbers. How much does it help us this year? Because they're different teams and different coach for Fresno State.

Starting point is 00:24:46 I don't know. But it's something we can pull on. And there are some similar players on both teams from last year. And on the flip side, versus being a strength versus strength for the KU offense versus Fresno defense, it's a weakness versus weakness on the other side of the ball because in 2024, Kansas finished 99th nationally in third plus fourth down success rate defensively. President's offense was 101st. So you have a strength for strength when KU has the ball.

Starting point is 00:25:11 You have a weakness versus weakness when Fresno State has the ball if we're just looking to last year. So on paper, you know, third down is going to be very interesting. And we'll see what Jalen Daniels can provide, obviously in his final home opener. I think it's also going to be fun to see what, you know, you think of third downs. Like those are money downs for the new offense coordinator, Jim Zabrowski, slash Matt Lubbic and defense coordinator, D.K. McDonald, what does he draw up on third down? What does Zabrowski drop? What does Jalen Daniels do?

Starting point is 00:25:40 So that's going to be a lot of fun to see in this game. Fourth down is special teams. It's early in the season. It's a lot easier to have that special teams breakdown. And if this game, I mean, if you're favored by 12 and out points, if you have a blocked punt return for a touchdown, that's a huge swing in a game like that, right? Field position could be huge too.

Starting point is 00:26:00 Like last season, that would have been a big edge for Fresno State. There were 33rd nationally in net field position. Kansas finished 170. So field position is going to be big. You know, making your field goals, avoiding any blocks, avoiding any mistakes, not blowing your lane coverage, making sure you're tackling guys on special teams. Those are all going to be huge. And Fresno has all their specialists back this year. So they should be pretty good there.

Starting point is 00:26:24 From KU's perspective, it's a pretty new group, but it's one that I think has talent. You look at the kicker punter they brought in, love the additions there. Interested to see what Tate and Aggie can do is the punt returner. From the kick returner perspective, you know, Kim pick and Emmanuel Henderson, talked about getting your playmakers the ball. They're going to be returning kicks. They could be explosive and would not shock me if one of those guys busted a kick return for a touchdown in this game. But both these teams have some, I think, interesting pieces in the special teams game. It's more so about, I think, from the Kansas perspective, can you just avoid that dumb play?

Starting point is 00:26:54 Can you avoid that breakdown play? If this is a game where neither team has a kick return touchdown or neither team has a big return or neither team has a mistake, I think that's a good thing for Kansas because Fresno State's the underdog, they want the chaos on the special team's plays. But if you want more on the game and more two keys to how Kansas wins, players to watch, play your matchups, stick with us for Friday's episode of Locked on Jayhawks talking more KU Fresno State. That'll do it though for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. See you next time.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - EARLY TEST IN A 'NEW' STADIUM: Kansas Jayhawks Football vs Fresno State Bulldogs Week 0 Preview

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