Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - EXPLOSION & LESS NEGATIVES: How Andy Kotelnicki Will UPGRADE the Kansas Jayhawks Offense in 2026

Episode Date: August 21, 2026

Kansas Jayhawks eye a revitalized offense as Andy Kotelnicki returns—will his play-calling spark more explosive plays regardless of who lines up at quarterback? Key metrics like third down efficiency, stuff rate, and havoc rate come under the microscope, as the Jayhawks aim to recapture their 2022-2023 dominance with emerging talents Dylan Edwards, Yasin Willis and Nik McMillan Updates from Lance Leipold and his coordinators highlight personnel battles, injury outlooks, and standout performers such as Blake Herold, whose film review reveals breakout potential on the defensive line. The conversation explores Kansas’s anticipated run-heavy strategy, the evolving quarterback competition, and key contributions in the trenches. With the season opener looming, can Kansas football’s revamped approach overcome last year’s challenges and set the tone in the Big 12 race? Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! KALSHI For a limited time, Download the Kalshi app and use code [LOCKEDON] to get $10 when you trade $10. .   The Game Don't miss this chance to celebrate 40 years of The Game with 40% off your entire order. Visit https://TheGameCaps.com and use promo code LOCKEDONat checkout. 5-Hour ENERGY Bring on the sweetness with Cotton Candy 5-hour ENERGY®️ shots—available online now at https:/5hourENERGY.com or on Amazon. Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONfor $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Join all the action at https://FANDUEL.COMto play Daily Dingers and make your free pick on who’s hitting a homer this MLB season.  FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's football Friday, and we heard a lot from Lance Leipold, Andy Kotlenicki, D.K.K. McDonald's about this year's team. But I also want to cross compare last year's offense to the Andy Kotelnicki offenses. What do we miss in? What could be different about this year's team with Kotelniki back in the fold? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's up, Derek Johnson here? This is Locked on Jayhawks. And on today's episode, we'll get to our Blake Harold film review. We'll get to the football camp updates from Lance Leipold and his coordinators.

But we're going to start right here comparing the Andy Kodlnicki offenses back from 2021 through 2023 to last year's offense. What can it teach us about this year's team coming into the season and maybe give you a little bit more optimism on what this offense can be regardless of who's playing quarterback for KU? Now, some of this is, it can be a bit personnel-based, right? Like, it's not as simple just to be like, these aren't chess pieces that are the same no matter what chess game you're playing. You know, you had Devin Neal, you had Jason being, had Jalen Daniel.

So it's going to be a little bit different. But can you at least make up some ground in some of these areas that weren't as good last season as they were with some of the Andy Kodolniki offenses? The first one is late downs. KU under Andy Kodalniki was consistently. near the top or at the top of the big 12 in third down conversion rate. And last year, that just went away. They were not converting third downs. And I don't know if that was a play calling thing.

I don't know if that was Jalen Daniels, you know, checking down or more tape on them over the years. I don't know. But like we look at the first season of Andy Codalnicki at Kansas in 2021, Kansas struggled on late downs as well, which, you know, kind of makes sense looking back on it. But you look at the last two years. of Kodalnikia, Kansas. They were in the 72nd percentile in 2023.

They were in the 96th percentile in 2022 in success rate on late downs. So, you know, those are good numbers to have. Well, they were in just slightly below average, average 48th percentile in success rate on late downs this past season. Like that's a number where maybe it can't go up as much because you don't have the, the experienced quarterback or dynamic quarterback that you have. those years, but, you know, could it be, it still might be able to be better than last year just by having Andy Cotonlicki, even if it doesn't reach the heights of 22 and 23.

This one I find interesting is stuff rate, looking at some of these different stats. KU was stuffed more in 2025. What is stuff right, right? Stuff rate is basically the percentage of times that a defense stops you to zero yards or negative yards on a play, right? It doesn't count like incompletions. But KU was stuffed more last season, meaning they had more plays that went for zero or negative yards.

That's obviously not a good thing, right? They were still actually good at it. They were in the 69th percentile last year. So that's like, oh, okay, well, that's still above average, the solid, right? But that's lower than any of the years in the Andy Kodlnicki era, right? Even in 2021 with a, I don't know, a team that was learning on the job about their personnel and their coaching staff and, you know, had the weakest personnel of the light pulled era, they were still 77th percentile at avoiding getting stuffed offensively.

In 2022, they were in the 81st percentile. And then that, you know, hit its peak in 2023 when Kansas was in the 94th percentile in avoiding getting stuffed offensively. And this is one that makes a lot of sense for the success of Kansas, right? You're not going to have all these five and four star athletes in general. Can you stay on schedule as an. offense and a big reason for those becomes, you know, Devon Neal like that there's a big difference in who the running back is and he was so good at keeping things on schedule. But that's something where

I'm like, okay, if this KU team is going to be a run first football team, which I think they will, can't they stay on schedule more than they were a season ago? Here's the big one to me. It's the explosive play rate. Kansas only rated out in the 12th percentile last season, an explosive play rate. They were not getting explosive plays. And that, like, it's not that every drive has to be an explosive touchdown, but you got to have some here and there. You can't expect to have 15 play drives every time down the field unless you're a triple option team, right?

And it divvies out to being they were in the 17th percentile and past explosive play rate. They were in the 28th percentile and run explosive play late. Well, that's a Kodal Mickey special. Like in 2022, Kansas rated out in the 99th, percentile nationally in explosive play rate. They were as good as any team in the country in getting explosive plays. And they did it both on the ground and in the air. Then in 2020,

Kansas rated out in the 92nd percentile in explosive play rate, which I guess a slight step back, but it's still elite nationally. Even in 2021, the season that Kansas goes two and 10 in year zero, basically the light pole there, because they took over after spring ball, Kansas still rated out above average, 56th percentile in explosive play rate.

So I look at last year's team being 12 percentile, which is wild considering you had a big play receiver like Emmanuel Henderson. And I'm like, I don't care who the quarterback is this year for Andy Coddlenicki. They're going to have more explosive plays this year. Plus you had Dylan Edwards and some interesting receivers to the fold. They're going to get more explosive plays than they did a season ago. Now, here's another big one, Havoc rate. What is Havoc rate you might ask, right?

a lot of the this is one of my fun things with analytics like once you explain them to someone you're like oh that makes sense like the stuff right it sounds like a complicated thing which just like plays that went for zero negative yards right same thing with havoc right you hear havoc right and you're like what the heck is this analytic all it is is is basically just a number to help determine how disruptive a defense is right so basically here's the formula this will make it super easy work tackled for loss plus passes defended which are like past deflections interceptions interception plus forced fumbles. Okay? Those three things. Tackles for loss, passes, defended, forced fumbles,

right? And a sack counts as a tackle for loss for this, divided by plays. So it's basically the, the percentage of plays that an offense runs,

that a defense makes a havoc type of play, right? Easiest way to bring it down, right? So that obviously means as a defense, you want a high havoc rate.

As an offense, you want to avoid havoc, right? Because that means you're turning it over too much. You're taking negative plays too much. You're taking those plays that set you back as an offense, right? Well, that was a big offensive issue for Kansas a season ago. They allowed the defense too often to create too much

havoc. And as a result, there were too many negative plays. Kansas rated out in the 41st percent a season ago at avoiding havoc offensively. So they're below average at it. And therein lies one of the, I think, other big secrets of the Andy Cole and the offense. Avoid avoiding the defense giving you negative plays and keeping on schedule again going back to that term well in 2023 Kansas rated out in the 78th percentile in avoiding havoc plays from the opposing defense in 2022 they were in the 81st percentile and even in 2021 the two and 10 j hawks had an 83rd percentile havoc rate avoided on the offensive side of the football so again I look at that number and I go I maybe it'll be tough because like I've heard some interception things with Cole Ballard, and I know Isaiah Marshall has some inaccuracies. So maybe you throw a bit more interceptions, but I think in general, you're going to be on schedule more and avoid more havoc plays. So I think all those are interesting to point to both in terms of what I think can be a little bit different and areas that I think can be improved this season for Kansas. It's easy just to point to personnel, but when you look at it from a team-wide statistic standpoint and the impact of Kodalnicki,

if those areas are improved at least a little bit for Kansas, they can stay in the range of where they've been these past few years on the offensive end of the football. Now, you might be wondering, what is the, I don't know, the play calling balance going to be? I did want to go back and look at this as well. So 2021, Kansas ran the ball about 58% of the time through it 42. 2022 was the most balanced year. They ran it 55% of the time through it 45. 2023 was the most toward running the football.

They ran the ball over 61% of the time and threw the ball just a bit over 38% of the time. So on average, the Andy Kodalnicki offenses ran the ball 58% of the time. They threw the ball 42% of the time. When you look at last year's offense for Kansas, it was about a 55-45 split. They ran the ball 55%. They passed the ball about 45% of the time. If you look later in the season, though, it almost, I don't know, maybe anecdotally to me, felt like you were throwing the ball more, at least in key situations later in the season.

But I guess you would point to that and say, okay, it's not that different, but it still is leaning a little bit more into the run. game than you did last year. And given the personnel you have on this year's roster, I think it just backs up the idea of what a lot of us think. It's going to be a pound and ground football team. There's going to be the runs of the damn ball, right? And I'm excited to see it because you got a really fun stable of backs. You got some quarterbacks who can run the football. You got an offensive line that seems to be meshing and headed in the right direction. So let's see what the AK offense can bring to the Jayhawks in 2026. Let's get to some of the latest football camp

updates from Koldnicki, D.K. McDonald, Lance Leipold. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Our episode today is brought to you by the game since 1986. The game has been creating classic college hats that fans are proud to wear, whether you're an alum, whether you're a current student, whether you're a season ticket holder or, you know, someone who never misses a game, a great college hat is more than apparel. It's a way to represent your school wherever you go. This year, the game is celebrating its 40th anniversary by giving fans a chance to save on some of their most iconic college hats. If you've been thinking about replacing an old favorite or adding a new one to your collection, now is the perfect time. I got my the game Kansas hat. I love this thing. I wear it on

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off, but don't wait, this anniversary offer won't last forever. All right, some of the latest from KU Football Fall Camp. Let's start with Lance Langell. who mentioned some of the injury bug going around the team. You hate to hear that, obviously. But what wasn't clear is him going over some of the injuries. It wasn't clear of like, is this a current thing or is this something that happened a week or two ago? You know, and now they're back. Like you mentioned Kaysen Carpenter, but then later he mentioned that he's kind of now back and at center.

So again, kind of hard to distinguish some of these, Tavaki, Tuolavatu, like same thing. Like, is he hurt now or is it later? Same with Nick Morrow, who he mentioned. He did save this, though. again, going back to the Case and Carpenter thing, he said, Carpenter is now back at center. And this is a direct quote from him, Amir is back where he needs to be, right? Getting some reps at guard is how he kind of finished off that sentence. But what that tells me is this whole idea of Amir Herring playing center, it's not the preferred option.

So we've been kind of wondering, how will the depth chart go? Will Kaysen Carpenter start at center? Will he not start at center, right? I think that tells me everything I need to know. If I'm projecting the office align, as long as long as long as you, as, you know, everybody's healthy and stuff. Carpenter at Center, Herring at one guard, Morrow and Clements, bookend to tackle, and then the big competition is at guard. I think Tuolivatu will win it. And then you're looking at Harper, Stro, and Tanner as your three

offensive linemen off the bench. That feels pretty good to me. Also, Coriomachry was injured in the scrimmage. He had an injury earlier in fall camp. So combined with that one in the scrimmage, you hate to see that. That is unfortunate. Does sound to me like Jayland Dupree then, who was also mentioned later by Andy Kodlnicki that his last practices have been his best would secure one of those top three spots in the running back rotation for KU. Apparently Carter Moses has been out for a while and going back what I had been hearing about Jalen Butler. In fact, Lance Leopold later mentioned Jalen Butler is a player who's doing well right now. Again, just kind of solidifies to me that it'll be him and Carson Brun is the top two tight ends. Cam Pickett, he said, has been out four to five days now.

so you hate to see that. That's not great. But he did say he expects cam back for the start of the season and then he was dressed out today. So could they be playing a little bit of mind games and what if he does have to miss, you know, first couple weeks of the Missouri game? I guess it's entirely possible. But I'm just going to take that for what it is and we'll assume that Pickett will be back for for the opener and the FCS game for KU.

Leipold was also asked about the quarterback position and didn't give away anything, didn't give away starter. He just said, we're in, we're still. in a very competitive quarterback battle right now. Again, mentioned the key term that you could ding the bell for. The most consistent guy will win. That is a consistency across all the coaches that, you know, whoever the most consistent guy at their different positions will win.

And Andy Kodlnicki actually kind of broke this down a little bit more in his presser today. The idea that like these are all like really athletic players and really good players. Like everybody here can make an incredible play here and there. It's the guys that can be the most consistent that you get on the field. Now, I did find this interesting, going back to the quarterback battle, you know I'm a big Chase Jenkins guy. And if you haven't checked out the film review we did on Chase Jenkins over on our Jayhawks overflow on substack, it's free to get to. I would highly recommend that because there's some really fun clips in there for Chase Jenkins. You know I'm a Chase Jenkins guy, but he was hurting Springball.

Well, Lance Leipold said he thought Chase Jenkins had some of his better practices of late. He said, he's made up for some time. Hey, if Chase Jenkins ended up being the starter, you got no bigger fan than me, my man. Then he also talked about the defense did Lance Leipold. He said really pleased with defensive ends and rotation that they can have there. He mentioned David Santiago has had an excellent camp. And it feels like his name keeps getting brought up. You know, I did the 2D projection earlier this week.

And I had Bray over Santiago and both guys getting about a 50-50 split. I mean, Bray's still the incumbent, but it's like, I don't know. Is that changing on me? You know, maybe we see Santiago 60% of the snaps and Bray 40. because McDonald even even mentioned him too, and he said the biggest step that Santiago has taken has been in pass rush and some of his hand movement and stuff like that, right? Leipold also mentioned that Dak Brinkley might be the pure pass rusher.

Leroy's pretty good there too. Another Garrett Martin mentioned from a coach, this time from Leipold, talking about his future and his motor. You love to hear about that. And then a little more intel in the defensive tackle room. In our two deep projection, we talked about the detackle room and that I thought that it seemed like just based on inferring what the coaches were saying, that Kevin Oatis was going to be ahead of Jibril Condé.

Well, I think we got more confirmation on that. Leipold said, Kevin Oatis and Marcus Calvin give us the bodies we need on the inside after he was talking about kind of, you know, Eam Smalls and Blake Harold up there as well. Also said Bam Crouch is getting more and more comfortable in the defense. So again, seems like his ascension continues up at the right moment for KU before the season. It sounds like Austin Alexander is getting healthier. that's good news for KU. And then in the three safeties, he called out,

Corey Gordon, Taylor Davis, where everybody seems to keep banking on Taylor Davis's leadership. Christian Pritchett, another mention there. We heard about him a little earlier in the camp, and we heard from Matt Gildersleeve. He's like one of the five fastest guys on the team. I had him as the third string at one of the safety spots. Maybe it moves up to second string.

I do think he's going to get some playing time. That's for sure. It seems like he is certainly impressed enough in that regard. Now, in regards to trying or, you know, maybe looking at some players who could potentially be newly eligible and available with some of the recent NCAA court rulings, it kind of just left it open. I don't know, based on the way that he answered it, I'm not really expecting it to happen. And then some other players that he kind of jazzed up a little bit, Carson Brune, the running back room, the core four receivers mentioned Pritchett again later on, Gordon again. So that was kind of good to see there. also. Andy Kodalnicki also mentioned that he was open on anything to deciding the quarterback battle, even if it means taking that competition into the first game of the season. So we'll kind of see what happens there. And then another, another Trey Brown love session from D.K. McDonald and mentioning how hard of a worker he is. I think he said, like he scanned his thumb to get in here about more than anybody in this off season. So cool to see a player working hard as an incoming freshman and getting the praise and, and probably.

probably some playing time to go with it that he kind of deserves for doing that. All right, let's finish up here. One of the guys that Lance Leipold mentioned really good, Blake Harold, we did a bit of a film review on him. We'll break that down over from our Jayhawks substack. This is locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for joining us here on LOJ. In today's episode is brought to you by Fandual.

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whether you're following your favorite team or keeping an eye on matchups across the league. Every game has someone capable of going deep. Now you get the chance to make your prediction before first pitch. Bobby Witt, been on a bit of a heater. I think three home runs over the last, like a little less than a week here. You know, probably get some decent odds on some of the other players because it's Mike Kell Garcia and Jack hurt right now. Some extra playing time to some other people for the Royals.

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in general. But you can find that on my substack. It's Jayhawks Overflow. It is free. Just go to substack and, you know, Jayhawks Overflow, probably easier to find that than by searching my name, which is a popular name, if you might not have noticed. But I think Blake Harold's about to have a star season for KU.

It would not shock me if he's an all big 12 player. And the cool thing is, even though the KU defense sucked against Cincinnati as a whole, Blake Harold did not. He had five tackles. He had a sack. You had a pass breakup. According to Pro Football Focus, you're talking six pressures and five stops. So really good numbers here.

And you just see he's such a slippery defensive tackle. He has a good get off on the ball. He can shoot between gaps. There was even a good amount of plays in this one where he was kind of lined up as a defensive end. And, you know, the first rep I saw where he was a defensive end, the tackle, you know, wins the rep against him and stops him. And I was like, okay, is this one of those things where it's just like he definitely needs to stay in as an interior guy? Let's try to avoid the using him as D. And it's the game went on.

He started winning against tackles as well. And I'm just sitting there like, it doesn't matter which way you play this guy. This dude's just that. He's a dude. He's a stud. He's going to win no matter what. And so, you know,

it's funny. When you're talking about like all big 12 seasons from defensive tackles, it might only be four or five sacks. It's just harder to kind of get that stuff done. But it can be so impactful from the middle in forcing that pressure. And it's not just those play. Like if you go and look at the or read the film review and see some the clips. It's plays where he doesn't even make the tackle, but he completely blows up the play.

And like, I even have a couple plays on there where it's like running back might have gained three or four yards, but he was initially trying to go through an area that Blake Harold just dominates his guy, gets to, forces the running back to go to a completely different hole or to the outside. And then unfortunately, there's just not guys quick enough for KU there to to make it a bigger play than it should. But just like his block-shending ability, his use of his hands, his fierceness and quickness to the quarterback. I really have enjoyed watching these last two years of Blake Harold to begin with. And I'm really, really, really excited about what he can do here in 2020,

so again, if you want to find that film review and some of the clips and get us excited for Harold in the 2026 season as I am, go to my Jayhawks overflow. You can subscribe to it for free. You can read the article for free, all of it's for free over there. So check that out and maybe some of the other film review articles as well. All right, that'll do it for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find this show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe. And we'll see you next time.

We are going to have a Friday night episode deep diving on KBakata, interesting portal prospect for KU Hoops to look into. So make sure you check that one out. And obviously any breaking news over the weekend, we'll get to that as well. See you next time.