Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - History Says These Three Teams Can Win March Madness and the 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, history tells us only three schools this year can win the national title we discuss on today's edition of the show. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can give me a follow on social media at D Johnson radio on Twitter. Thanks for making the lockdown Jayhawks. Your first listen every day. We are free and available anywhere. You get your podcasts. We are also available on our YouTube page where you can like,

Starting point is 00:00:39 and subscribe to the show. Thank you to the everydayers out there tuning in each and every episode. We talked about KU's path earlier in the week when the bracket came out. KU women's basketball. Had a fun conversation with Nick Schwert yesterday. Who's the most important player for KU basketball? But on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're helping pick the bracket using some history, using some parameters, and we're going to let you know which schools are most likely or can make a Final Four and win the national title.

Starting point is 00:01:05 We'll get to my final four picks and maybe a favorite Cinderella or two or one that I'm kind of looking out for on the Cinderella side of things. Let's start with the final four. We'll whittle our way down to the final four, then we'll get to the national title, and then we'll finish up with my final four picks, I guess. So the parameters i'm going to be using here date back to 2001 that is when ken palm goes back to used to only go back to 2003 they've expanded it back to 2001 in fact he's actually kind of gone back to 99 but some of the pre-tournament data anyway uh to 2001 so that gives you you know solid sample size of data that's over two decades worth of ncaa tournaments and in total you go back to 2001, obviously no NCAA tournament in 2020.

Starting point is 00:01:48 There have been 88 teams, 88 teams who have made a Final Four since 2001, four teams per tournament, right? So these are a couple of parameters and historic measures that we're going to go through that help you whittle down the bracket. And as I go through these, as I go through the ones to who's going to be, you know, the three schools that can win a national title this year, keep this in mind. These parameters are not proven fact. Now, Kansas, who won the title two years ago, was a part of this and did make it through these parameters. UConn, who won it all last year, made it through all the parameters except for one, which was a coaching one, which was weird,

Starting point is 00:02:26 where there was an exception to the rule, which was if you're a UConn coach, this doesn't apply. And they ended up making it through on all the other ones. And there had been some past teams where that kind of was the case. So anyway, point being, this isn't a foolproof method. Nothing is because March Madness is the random, but this is going to give you at least percentages, right? If you can get two of four final four teams in your bracket pick and you pick the winner, there's a good chance you're going to be one of the top, you know, finishers. You might bring home some money, for instance. So anyway, all 88 were top 11 seeds who made the final four. We have gotten close twice with 12 seeds. I think Missouri was 12 seed once that nearly made it, got to the elite eight. Oregon State made it a few years ago as a 12 seed. But again, this is going to go in line with everything we do here. I don't want to bet on the outlier. You know, like you could say every year during when Nick Saban was at his peak with Alabama, that you were going to pick them not to make the playoff. And eventually you were going to be right, but more often than not, you were going to be right, but more often than not,

Starting point is 00:03:25 you were going to be wrong. So like, you know, as I'm going through these parameters too, okay, not all of this is going to be right, but it gives you a better historical chance if you're playing the numbers to again, get more right than you get wrong, if that kind of makes sense. So that eliminates all the 12 season up. I don't need to specifically name all those schools. You can obviously figure out who that would be. 87 of the top 88 schools were top 44 in adjusted efficiency margin on Ken Palm. So that eliminates Northwestern, Utah State, South Carolina, Drake, Oregon, NC State, and Virginia as teams that could make the final four. Then 86 of the 88, which, I mean, if you're talking 86 of the 88 too, like as we're going through some of these numbers, I'm going to give you like a percentage here on this one. 86 of the 88 means that basically 98%. So 98% of the final

Starting point is 00:04:18 four teams had top 75 adjusted offensive efficiency. That actually doesn't eliminate anybody else who hasn't already been eliminated. Then if we go to the defensive side of the ball, 84 of the 88 had top 70 adjusted defensive efficiencies. That eliminates Florida Atlantic this year, Dayton, Florida, Kentucky. That's an interesting one, kind of been a popular pick for a lot of people. Alabama and Illinois. Now I will say one of the four exceptions to this rule was last year with Miami. Miami was able to overcome this.

Starting point is 00:04:50 Maybe this is a new day and age where offense matters even more than defense. Miami was in the hundreds on defense. Or maybe you would say, hey, it doesn't happen very often. Last year was one of the exception to the rule years. What are the odds it's going to happen back-to-back years? So Kentucky, Alabama, Illinois, those are three really good schools that would get eliminated from that part of things. 83 of the 88 had coaches who previously made the second round.

Starting point is 00:05:14 So they had a previous second-round NCAA tournament appearance under their belt from the coach, or they were in their first NCAA tournament. So like, for instance, Shaka Smart's first NCAA tournament appearance was with VCU when they made the playing game as an 11 seed, right? So even though he didn't have a second round under his belt, it was his first tournament. So like basically one of the two. But that would eliminate BYU, Colorado State, Boise State,

Starting point is 00:05:41 and Washington State. So that gets rid of four more. I don't know, maybe BYU would be the most trendy to pick. So that leaves kind of a lot of schools. Texas A&M, Nevada, Clemson, TCU, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Texas, Colorado, Texas Tech, New Mexico, Kansas, San Diego, St. Mary's, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Baylor, Marquette, Creighton, North Carolina, Duke, Tennessee, Arizona, Iowa State, Auburn, Purdue, Houston, UConn.

Starting point is 00:06:02 Don't worry about going back and listening back to that because here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to make this a little bit easier for you. I'm going to use even stricter parameters. So if we use more strict parameters, we're going to come away with a little less schools. 82 of the 88 schools that made the Final Four, so that's 93%, were top 31 in adjusted efficiency margin. Like even that Loyola Chicago team was top 31 there

Starting point is 00:06:27 so that leaves us with 29 schools Wake Forest and St. John's actually top 31 on Ken Palm but neither made the tournament so leaves with 29 schools and all of those 29 that are in there are top 11 seeds 85 of the 88 it's 96 and a half percent, were top 68 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Also, nobody crossing off on that one. Kansas was actually close. Kansas is in the mid 60s, but they just cleared inside the top 68. And then 81 of 88, so 92% of final four teams since 2001, were top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiencies. That gets rid of, again, Florida, Texas, Kentucky, Baylor, Alabama, Illinois. The add-on also gets rid of Baylor as part of that.

Starting point is 00:07:14 Again, that's a big chunk of good schools. 80 of the 88, 91% of teams who made the final four since 01 had coaches who previously made the sweet 16 or were in their first ncaa tournament so now you're getting rid of mississippi state colorado texas tech new mexico byu and duke because john shire only made the second round last year so there's another big school off the list and then by the stricter metrics that leaves us with these i'm going to go by regions from the east here's the schools that can make a final four UConn Iowa State Auburn San Diego State now I don't know what are the odds of San Diego State making back-to-back final fours I don't know that's just me personally so I'd be

Starting point is 00:07:57 picking one of those other three but if you want to go that way you know experience does matter so do your thing uh in the south leaves you you with Houston, Marquette, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. That's a little bit interesting there with Nebraska. I ain't picking Wisconsin. They were so cold to end the regular season. I guess they got hot again in the Big Ten tournament, so I don't know. Maybe anything can happen. But, yeah, those are the four that you're kind of looking at there.

Starting point is 00:08:20 Marquette, are you really going to pick Shaka Smart to make his second Final Four? I guess he's done it before, but Tyler Kolek's kind of injured too, so I don't know. Maybe I'd be going with Houston. I don't know. Or it could be an exception to the rule one. In the Midwest, leaves you with Purdue, Tennessee, Creighton, Kansas, Gonzaga. So that's one where it didn't really help you too much in the filter. You have all the top five seeds in there, but good news, Kansas did make it through. And then in the West you have arizona north carolina st mary's um michigan state i'm not picking michigan state they've been way too

Starting point is 00:08:51 up and down this year i know we've seen this with tom iso where i i just no not not happening this year right so i'd be picking between arizona north carolina and st mary's but st mary's i mean outside of that one year where they made the sweet 16 is like a 10 seed what was that that, like a decade ago? That was 2010, right? So more than a decade ago. I don't think they've made it to the second weekend. So that hasn't really been in the cards for them. Maybe they're due this year, but for me, that's one that I'm kind of going shocked between Arizona and North Carolina. So that's who can make the final four, a little bit of a bigger list. We're going to get a little bit more extreme. We're going to tell you which three schools can win the national championship.

Starting point is 00:09:25 And honestly, I might end up kind of knocking one off and saying it's really going to be one of these two based on past history and parameters coming up in just a moment with Locked on Jayhawks. First, this episode of the show is brought to you by Better Together. Bracket already busted, tired of the same old daily fantasy grind where you make a roster, cross your fingers, and hope for the best or losing on the last leg of your pick-em entry? Introducing Better Together, the first cooperative daily fantasy platform where teamwork triumphs talent and you can play with your friends, not against them. Pick more or less on real-time player stats, strategize with your partner to boost your odds, and climb the leaderboard together.

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Starting point is 00:11:28 started doing this two years ago kansas was one of the three i don't remember the other two it was like kansas kentucky and somebody else kentucky interesting loss in the first round so the point being here though is that this doesn't mean that if you're one of the schools that survives at the end of this you're going to go far it just means most likely one of the teams that is here is going to win a national championship. And again, it doesn't guarantee it because March is weird. But you know, you bet with it, the numbers more often than not, it might help you out. And so last year, you're going to see one of the parameters we're going to have at the end here is a coaching one. UConn technically didn't make the cut, but also they sort of did if we used the UConn exception to the rule, which we didn't mention, but we didn't call for it because Dan Hurley hadn't made it to the second weekend before

Starting point is 00:12:16 last year's run. So anyway, we'll get to that. Okay. So we're dating back again to 2001. All of these numbers that we're about to mention are pre-tournament numbers. So entering the tournament numbers, which is important because you don't want to use post-tournament numbers when it's like, oh, of course, this team ranks really highly in everything because they just had a six-game bump from beating some really good teams. All right, so number one, top seven seed. Every school who's won the title since 2001 has been a top seven seed. And honestly, if you don't want to use 2014 UConn as the bar setter, I wouldn't blame you. And you just want to say every school besides that one has been a top seven seed and honestly if you don't want to use 2014 UConn as the bar setter I wouldn't blame you and you just want to say every school besides that one has been a top four seed but

Starting point is 00:12:50 also we've seen like Kansas win before in 88 is a six seed too um so I I'm fine calling it I guess a seven seed um I guess honestly prior to last year when UConn wanted as a four seed the previous worst seed I guess you could say over the last two decades besides that yukon team was a three seed so um i don't know do with that what you will you can kind of pick and choose how you want to go with those specifically but that's pretty obvious again who it eliminates i'm just going to eliminate everybody above the seven seed eight seeds and and on you're gone top 25 and adjusted efficiency margin even UConn who's the low watermark here was top 25 and adjusted EM coming into the tournament the next closest to it was actually that 03

Starting point is 00:13:32 Syracuse team they were 20th entering the tournament Kansas for what it's worth is 22nd 2011 UConn who was 15th interestingly enough though everyone else was top six so again if you want to get more lasered in just look to the top six because every champ since 2014 yukon has been top six in adjusted em entering the tournament but among the 28 teams left four times seven seeds right for the schools that are you know seven seeds are better so one seven seeds, but not ranked in the top 25 and adjusted the M that would eliminate Texas, Florida, Dayton, Clemson, Washington state, South Carolina. So now we're down to 22 schools left that can win a national title. All of them, except for one, we're top 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I'll let you guess who that one was.

Starting point is 00:14:23 Yes. 2014 Yuk, extreme outlier here. They were 57th in offense coming into that tournament. And that's, again, one of those where it's like, you can't predict March. And if that happens again this year, I just tip my cap to it, because you're not going to be able to predict the unpredictable fully. It's, can you get a better educated guess? And that's what we're trying to do here. But UConn was 57th. Everybody else in 2001 has been top 21. So we're going to go top 21 as part of that. 2011 UConn, actually, interestingly enough, was the next worst at 21st. Syracuse, no, three was the next at 18th.

Starting point is 00:14:55 And 2013 Louisville at 17th. So with as big of a drop off as it is 2014 UConn, we're just going to use the top 21 parameter. That would eliminate Texas Tech, Kansas, who's ranked in the 60s, San Diego State, St. Mary's, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Iowa State. Now that's some big ones there at the end that I just mentioned. North Carolina, Tennessee, Iowa State. Carolina barely missed on the offensive side. So that's seven more gone. We have 15 left who can win a national title every champ since 2001 everyone has been top 44 in adjusted defensive efficiency and honestly again this is one where you can cut it a little tighter because everyone except for one was top 37 that one who was the exception was 2021 Baylor which was like a top 20 defense all year long then they had their their

Starting point is 00:15:44 bout with COVID came back from COVID lost a couple of games, defense ballooned up to 44th. And then in the tournament, the defense is really good again. That was a top 25 defense in the country. It's just, they had the COVID thing that dropped them out. So if you want to toss that one out and say top 37, that's fine. I'm just going to go top 44 cause it's close enough. But I do think it is interesting that of the last six national champions

Starting point is 00:16:04 outside of 2019 Virginia, all of them were ranked between 18th and 44th on defense, including Kansas in 2022, who entered the tournament at 29th. So, like, I guess the point here is that I'm not saying you need to be good, not great on defense. I think that's just kind of a weird thing that's happened, a weird coincidence. But I guess my point here is this. You can't suck at defense if you want to win a national title. You have to be at least good at it. But actually, offense is more important to what wins you championships. As long as you hit the bare minimum on defense, having the elite offense is actually more important than the elite defense. It's better to have elite offense, good defense,

Starting point is 00:16:45 than elite defense and good offense, I guess is what I'm trying to say. So anyway, top 44 in adjusted defense efficiency, bye-bye to Kentucky, Wisconsin, BYU, Gonzaga, Baylor, Alabama, and Illinois. Seven more gone, eight schools left who can win a national title. Every national champion since 2001 made at least their call and honestly I think this is a stat that goes back like forever I don't know how long conference tournaments have been around but I'm pretty sure I've seen this step floated around that it's like always every national champion since 2001 made at least their conference tournament

Starting point is 00:17:18 semi-finals or better that eliminates Duke who lost in the ACC quarterfinals and Creighton who lost in the Big East quarterfinals. Tennessee was already eliminated, but if they would have made it through this point, they'd be double eliminated right now. So now you have six left who can win a national title. Every national champion had a coach who made at least the second round prior to winning the national title or was a first year coach now um like i said i'm tempted to call this the uconn rule because if not for kevin ollie in connecticut and dan hurley both uconn coaches every other national champion that wasn't uconn every other national champion that wasn't UConn, every other national champion since 2001 that wasn't UConn, had a coach who at least had an Elite Eight run in them under his belt.

Starting point is 00:18:11 So here's the rule that I'm going to go with. Coach either has to be a UConn coach, or they have to have an Elite Eight under their belt. Either way, this guy's eliminated. Tommy Lloyd hasn't made it to an elite eight yet at Arizona I really like this Arizona team but sorry gotta go so uh now we're down with five schools that can win a national title every national champion since 1987 Indiana had a first round pick and even then that 1987 Indiana team Steve Alford was their highest picked player.

Starting point is 00:18:45 He went 28th overall in the draft. Nowadays, that would be a first round pick. Back in the day, less NBA franchises, so he was a second round pick. Point being, you need a really talented player. Talent helps you win at this time of year. Now, this one does get a little bit stickier to try to predict because I can't just say this guy's here, right? Because there's certain helium attached with winning a title. When you win a national title, when you make a final four run,

Starting point is 00:19:08 there are certain players on your roster that are going to get more shine, more publicity, more love, and they're going to shoot up draft boards. It just absolutely is going to happen. So when I go through this, I'm going to try to add some context and be like, okay, but if this guy's ranked 40th on this draft board, and that's the other thing too, there are so many draft boards. One team can see it one way, one team can see it another. So this one is a little bit more of an uncertainty that I'm adding in this year that we'll see if we stick with this one. This is a newbie to the equation this year. But it is more, this one's more of an art than a science, I guess I would say. UConn, they don't have to worry about

Starting point is 00:19:43 any, you know, pick and nits. They have multiple. Stephon Castle, who was out when Kansas played him, is going to probably be like a top 10 pick. Donovan Klingin will be like a lottery pick. I mean, they'll have multiple first round picks. Houston, this one's interesting. On ESPN, their highest ranked player for the draft is Jamal Shedd. He's ranked 62nd.

Starting point is 00:20:01 Now, again, there can be the differences in different draft boards where people have you. And if you have a deep run in March, maybe you shoot up. That's a long way to shoot up a draft board, though, from number 62. I'm tempted to eliminate Houston. In fact, I will. Purdue, ESPN has Zach Eadie going 15th overall. Okay, that'd be a first-round pick, so they're good to go there,

Starting point is 00:20:20 just as our first team as part of this was with UConn. Auburn. On ESPN, their highest-rated player is Jonai Broom, who is 93rd. Now, I've seen some love for, like, Jalen Williams, their foreman, and maybe he could work into that discussion. But right now, that's not the case. So I'm eliminating Auburn. Marquette.

Starting point is 00:20:41 Tyler Kolek is actually kind of a fringe first-round pick right now, and especially with a run to the title that happened. of same thing for oso iguodoro iguodoro who uh i think he could be kind of a fringe first round picks actually marquette survives it for what it's worth uh on arizona even if we didn't do the coach thing from the last parameter um arizona's highest picks are projected to be like 40th and 41st with kisha johnson and like pelle larson so they would kind of be on the outskirts too, though those are both close enough that with a good run, they could maybe make it in.

Starting point is 00:21:09 But that means if you're paying attention, we're left with three schools who are going to win a national title after all these past history parameters. Connecticut, Purdue, and Marquette. For me personally, I ain't picking Shaka Smart. I could see either of those other. Also, you know, Tyler Kolek injured right now for Marquette. Even though he's going to play, it sounds like,

Starting point is 00:21:31 how healthy is he going to be while he's playing? So I won't be picking that one. But I could see UConn or Purdue. And there is a part of me that we haven't seen a back-to-back champ in a long time. In fact, we haven't seen a defending champion make it out of the first weekend, make it to the Sweet 16 since Duke in 2016. It's been eight years since we've even seen a defending champ make the second weekend. It's hard. It's been since 2007. It's been 17 years since we even saw a defending champ make it to the Elite

Starting point is 00:22:04 Eight. And that was the Florida team who ended up going back-to-back and didn't just make the Elite Eight. They won the title again. But I think this UConn team is well-positioned to do it again. If there's a back-to-back team, they can break the parameters. Maybe this will be the year back-to-back. Chiefs started it. UConn kind of adds to it.

Starting point is 00:22:19 That's what I'm going to go with. But maybe, I don't know, there's something in the cards with Purdue. I couldn't, in my head, with Purdue having all their weird tournament stuff happen in recent years, couldn't get around to it. But yeah, UConn, Purdue, Marquette, I'm tossing Marquette aside. Personally, you can do that with what you want. I will say if there's any teams that can break the parameters, I'd probably go with Arizona or North Carolina. North Carolina was so close to hitting the offensive parameter there. And I believe would be good to go on the rest, although the draft pick one might be a little weird for them.

Starting point is 00:22:50 Arizona is close enough in a couple things that I could possibly get there. It's also possible it's a 2014-type year and a random six seed or something wins it all. But, yeah, that's what it says. If you want to go with the odds, UConn or Purdue would be the two that I'm circling. Let's finish it says. If you want to go with the odds, UConn or Purdue would be the two that I'm circling. Let's finish up here. My final four picks and maybe a favorite Cinderella or two

Starting point is 00:23:08 that will go with some past history too on Locked on Jayhawks. First, we were brought to you by Nissan. This week's March Madness bracket highlight is having us pick each week one team that stands out, a team that's pushed further than the rest just like any of the all-new 2024 nissan suvs these guys were able to take it to the next level the houston cougars can only be described as a nissan armada this top-seeded team is as hardcore as it gets out there so it's no wonder they're expected to land a top seed in the

Starting point is 00:23:43 tournament after their first season in the big 12 take the nissan rogue nissan pathfinder or nissan armada and go find your next big adventure shop nissanusa.com okay my final four picks and cinderellas so uh out of the east i just mentioned the yukon thing i'm going with you with uh connecticut out of the East, I just mentioned the UConn thing. I'm going with Connecticut out of the East. I will say Auburn does scare me a lot in a potential Sweet 16 game, but I am going to go UConn there. Out of the South, I'm going to go Houston. I just couldn't get myself with the defense to maybe pick Kentucky. I couldn't get in on Marquette.

Starting point is 00:24:21 Honestly, was a little tempted to have Duke getting through to the Final Four possibly, but I ended up going with Houston. In the Midwest, I went with Creighton actually getting through as something a little different than just picking all one seeds. And then in the West, I went with Arizona, the two seed. If they can get to the Elite Eight, maybe you have a Caleb Love revenge game. If you're playing North Carolina, you have a bit more home court advantage playing on the west side. So I know that's nothing sexy. It's a 1-1-2 and a 3 seed, right?

Starting point is 00:24:50 Whatever. How about Cinderella's then? Every 11 through 13 seed who pulled an upset in the last 10 tournaments, every 11 through 13 seed who pulled an upset in the last 10 tournaments, was top 125 in adjusted offensive efficiency entering the tournament. And 22 of the 24 schools who pulled those upsets were top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency. There is also a correlation that I found in going back through all those teams data for teams that shoot well from two. You can get easy buckets. I think that makes sense in a lot of ways.

Starting point is 00:25:26 You avoid getting the ball stolen from you, and you have a strong, effective field goal percentage defense. So the teams that stood out via those profiles, and it doesn't mean all of these are going to win, but maybe one or two of them do, James Madison big time in those profiles. Yale, which is interesting because I really like this Auburn team, but I don't know, maybe Yale can pull off the upset.

Starting point is 00:25:48 We've seen the Ivy League do well. McNeese State, who I've been kind of high on this whole way through, and then Grand Canyon is the other one. So those are the four that I'm kind of highlighting here. I'm not going to end up picking all of them in my bracket, but I'll probably end up picking my favorite two or three out of those and hoping that you can hit a couple of them and, you know, maybe, I don't know, see the profits shine, I guess, so to speak.

Starting point is 00:26:12 All right, we'll be back on Thursday morning, give you a preview of KU's first round opponent with Samford. That coming up later in this week. Make sure you subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page with Locked on Jayhawks. See you next time.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - History Says These Three Teams Can Win March Madness and the 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket

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