Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - How Does the Illinois Win Affect Kansas Jayhawk Football's Ceiling & Can They Contend in the Big 12?

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we're talking what the new ceiling and floor is for this KU football team with the wins loss as far as after their game against Illinois, where they looked really darn impressive. And we'll finish things up with whose stat line is it anyway on this edition of Locked on Jayhawks. You are locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 p.m. on KLWN in Lawrence with Rock Chalk Sports Talk. Thanks for making Locked On Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get any of your

Starting point is 00:00:46 podcasts. You can also like and subscribe to our show on our YouTube page also for free. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're talking KU football for you to repick the schedule. How many wins? What's the ceiling? What's the floor after they looked so impressive in the Illinois game?

Starting point is 00:01:02 Maybe biggest early season surprises for KU. And then we'll finish up with whose stat line is it anyway. We're joined by Nick Schwert on this episode of the show. First though, today's episode is brought to you by Jace Medical. Empower yourself when you purchase a Jace case, providing you with a personal supply of five antibiotics that treat 50 or more infections.

Starting point is 00:01:23 Get yours today at jacemedical.com. That's J-A-S-E medical.com. All right. So Nick, KU takes down Illinois 34 to 23 last Friday. How much did that game, because it wasn't just them winning by 11 points in a game that maybe you considered to be a coin flip going in. It was how dominant they were in the first half. At one point, they were up 31 to seven, how they looked like the much better team in that game that, to me, has kind of changed the way I'm viewing this season where before the year started, I picked them to go 7-5. I thought that eight wins was a realistic expectation

Starting point is 00:01:57 to get to as well. But now after that game, I'm kind of sitting there going, I think eight or nine wins. And, you know, maybe if the offense is as good as you think, Big 12's wide open, Could there be more at stake? How are you viewing the impact of that game to the way you view the rest of the season? You know, I don't think it changes my expectation that much. I'm not ready to go there probably until after the BYU game. I don't think this Nevada game is going to tell us a whole lot where KU's at. But what I did take away from that was that not just is the offense good again,

Starting point is 00:02:30 it might be better than it was a season ago. When you look at that five-game winning streak to start last season, how many times did Jalen Daniels have to play Superman and do everything and lead the team in rushing and have the late game heroics that for any team, for any quarterback, no matter how good they are, is not sustainable over the course of a 12 game season. What was impressive about the Illinois game was that Jalen Daniels was good. And he showed you in flashes like, yeah, I'm still that dude.

Starting point is 00:03:02 But he didn't have to be Superman for KU to impose their will on Illinois. Devin Neal came out and once again, on a limited amount of touches, showed you that he might be one of the more dynamic running backs in the Big 12, if not the country. So if the run game is operating at a higher level, if the offensive line is operating at a higher level, if the defense isn't constantly getting behind the eight ball early in games, Jalen Daniels can just play within the system. And when you need him to be that guy, he can still be that guy. That to me is a more sustainable brand of football. If you're looking at KU potentially winning eight or nine games. So I'm not sure that that game made me walk out of the stadium saying, holy cow, this is a completely different team. I need to go back to the drawing board on what they can accomplish. But I believe on this show,

Starting point is 00:03:50 I predicted eight wins for KU before the season. And what it did was reaffirm that those are very realistic expectations for this team. Well, and to your point on the offense, if they end up being better than they were last year, they were second in the big 12 in points per game they were first in yards per play rushing yards per play passing yards per play and the the per play stuff is more important because ku runs less plays per game than say in oklahoma or texas tech but when you look at the points per game totals i was talking about this on rock chalk sports talk the other day um these are from last year here are the top 11 teams in the country in points per game. The reason I have 11 is these are the teams that averaged 38 or more points per game.

Starting point is 00:04:30 So hit that cutoff. Last year, KU was about 35, 36. With a healthy Jalen Daniels, they were at 41. So far this season, early in the year, they're over 40. Let me know if any of these teams did anything good in college football last year. Tennessee, Ohio State, USC, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan. Those are the six who averaged 40 or more. And then the teams are average between 38 and 40. Washington, UCLA, Oregon, TCU, and Utah. That do anything for you?

Starting point is 00:04:57 That's a little something. I'll perk you up a little bit, won't it? But yeah, that was kind of the talk before Jalen Daniels got injured last year. You're 5-0. You've got a guy who has, I think he had like, what, 24 total touchdowns through five games. He was leading the nation in QBR. And KU was putting up 40 points a game. And I think you and I maybe talked about this last year. You can be a tremendous college football offense averaging 34 a game, 32 a game. But there is a level that you can get to where it's like, okay, you're not just a good offense. You're borderline unstoppable. And there is a certain level you get to where you say, uh-oh, like this was happening before the Illinois game. Uh-oh, this is one of the nation's best defenses.

Starting point is 00:05:49 What's it going to look like? You tell me, Derek. What did Illinois' defense look like? And maybe Illinois stinks this year. But it doesn't matter. If you get to a certain level of offense, I don't care who the defense is. We say it with the Chiefs all the time. Like we don't ever talk about that anymore with the Chiefs. Like What are they going to look like against this defense? It doesn't matter. They have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey. They're going to score a bunch of points,

Starting point is 00:06:12 turns out. That's kind of where KU is at right now. No matter who they're playing the rest of the season, I don't care who they line up against. I am to assume that they're going to get theirs on offense. It's all going to come down to, can they get enough stops to where they're not racing to 40 every single night? Yeah. And as I went through that list, you would notice that a lot of those teams did at least have good defenses like Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, those teams have good defenses, but there still are a couple on there. How about USC? You like, right? Like how was USC's defense? Exactly. I mean, TCU gave up 29 points per game last year. They were playing in the title. Now, I think a big chunk of that was probably from giving up 65 to Georgia. If you take out that game, it's like 27 points per game. It's like 26 and a half. But still, I mean, that's

Starting point is 00:06:54 what we've been talking about all offseason too. It's that if Kansas can just give up 28 points per game this year, that's not like a huge metric. But if you get up to 38 points per game and you're giving up 27, 28 a game, that's in line with where TCU was last year. And that's not me saying that I think Kansas is going to be playing for the title or be a playoff contender, but that is basically me saying that if those things happen, I think it is realistic to expect Kansas to win nine games. Yeah, because if you just want to play the schedule game, which I don't necessarily love, I think sometimes it's just like a fun exercise, but if you just want to play the schedule game, which I don't necessarily love, I think sometimes it's just like a fun exercise.

Starting point is 00:07:26 But if you do it for Kansas, it's really about where are the non-negotiable games or where are the games that you wouldn't even really entertain the idea that KU could win them? Like how many of those games exist for you on KU's schedule? Like, are you entertaining the idea that Kansas could beat Texas, I think, in week five? Do they have a shot? Yeah, that's the closest one where I'm like, I don't know, especially after they beat Alabama.

Starting point is 00:07:55 But you're right. It's still not a game I'm going into where I'm like, yeah, no chance. No chance. Of course they do. Yeah, that's the thing. It's like if they would have lost to Alabama, I'd say, oh, bring it on, right? Because I thought that game was going to be typical Big 12 SEC. Yeah, you've got nice skill position players, but the SEC team is going to kill you up front. Well,

Starting point is 00:08:16 all of a sudden, Texas was just annihilating Alabama's offensive line. Those are the types of teams that are still going to scare me against Kansas because as good as they are schematically with Jalen Daniels, with the skill position players, I do think they are still lacking behind some of the elite teams in terms of the size and the physicality that they have up front. So that's always going to scare me a little bit, but you got a quarterback, you've got a shot. And I do believe KU is going to have the best quarterback in every game that they play this year. All right let's continue on with some of this conversation. First though this episode of the show is brought to you by Jace Medical. With storms, shortages, pandemics, reliance on China, and supply chain issues you need to be prepared now more than ever. Jace

Starting point is 00:09:00 Medical is simple. You go online, fill out a form, and then you get a prescription with life-saving medication right to your door. The Jace case gives you a peace of mind so that you're not just hoping that you have access to medication in an emergency. Jace Medical makes sure you have that medication in hand. The Jace case provides five life-saving antibiotics for emergency use. All it takes to get a Jace case is fill out a simple form online. And in some cases, you jump on a quick call with one of the board certified physicians. I went ahead and ordered mine and it was super easy. Didn't even have to get on the call. Set right to my door.

Starting point is 00:09:32 You get ongoing care from the physicians or any treatment related questions. Doctor created, doctor recommended. Save more than $360 by getting these life-saving antibiotics with Jace Medical, plus an additional $20 off by using my code LOCKEDON at checkout on jacemedical.com. That's J-A-S-E medical.com. All right, picking up where we left off with this conversation. At what point would KU have to start for you to start viewing this team as being like a legit Big 12 title contender? That doesn't necessarily mean they have to play in Arlington,

Starting point is 00:10:10 but the way I view it is if you're a legit Big 12 title contender, you're within at least a game going into the last week of the season, where it's like going into the last week of the season, you can be like, if this scenario happens for us, we can be playing in the game. So for me, I would pull it out a little bit sooner. I would probably look at, I'm trying to think now, what are we in the second week of September? So that means you're looking towards the end of November, right?

Starting point is 00:10:38 For the end of the regular season. I would say if you're entering November and we're having a conversation of like, okay, these teams are eliminated, right? Half the league's eliminated or eight teams are eliminated. These are like the four teams we're giving a legitimate shot to, right? Because that will happen. Like here over the next two weeks, some teams are just going to take themselves completely out of the conversation. They've got no shot. If you're entering the last month of the regular season and we are throwing your name around with Texas or K-State or Oklahoma, whoever those other teams are, that to me is when

Starting point is 00:11:19 I can start entertaining it, right? Like you could, you could start 5-0 and if you beat Texas in Austin at the end of this month yeah we're gonna really start ramping up the hype train like holy cow biggest win in program history KU at that point would probably be a top 15 team in the country like it would be insane Derek but even at that point it's just hype even at that point starting five and oh i don't care who you beat does not all does not shoehorn you into the big 12 title game like that's just not how it works in west virginia stuff remember when they were talking to town yeah like you have to do it over a sustained period of time and that's the toughest thing we saw it last year yes jaylen daniels went down but it's so difficult to maintain that level of focus,

Starting point is 00:12:07 that level of execution, that level of excellence over the course of a college football season. So to me, talk to me in October. I don't care what happens this month. I hope they beat Texas. That would be insane. But I don't even want to talk about the Big 12 title until we can get into October when the list really has started to whittle itself down. Yeah, the way I view it is, okay, let's say you can get through BYU next week, assuming you beat Nevada this week, even if you lose to Texas at that point, 4-1.

Starting point is 00:12:43 The next two weeks, you're UCF at home and at Oklahoma state. If you split those two, but then come off a buy and beat Oklahoma. And at that point you're six and two, I think with a win over Oklahoma. At that point, I think it becomes a conversation. So you're right. It's based on kind of what happens in October. Now, as far as like what you want to see on the field, forget the like wins and losses and who they're playing in the schedule and everything.

Starting point is 00:13:06 What remains at this point, your biggest maybe question or just biggest reservation of something, whether, you know, maybe we have seen it early on, but you just want to see it more consistently to feel like, you know, it's a for sure thing, or maybe something we just haven't seen that you're still kind of waiting to see how it goes for KU this season. It's going to be the offensive line play. It's going to be the offensive line all year. And it's not because I think it's the biggest weakness on this team. It's because, okay, let's start to come up with the formula of how Kansas does win the big 12, right? Well, it starts with an elite offense and it's really difficult, Derek, to have an elite offense without an above average offensive line.

Starting point is 00:13:43 So like we can talk about the defense. That's important. They need to shore things up. The secondary, the front seven needs to get more pressure, like all that stuff. It all matters. But KU's identity is built around this dynamic playmaker. You have a quarterback, the weapons you have on the outside and those two running backs in the backfield. That is the identity of KU. And KU maximizes their ceiling by getting the most out of that offense. And you can't get the most out of that offense unless you have solid offensive line play. I think it's been solid returns through the first two weeks of the season. That to me is the one thing I'm kind of just

Starting point is 00:14:23 keeping an eye open for to say, all right, what's, what is this team going to do against BYU? What is this team going to do against Texas? Because the tests are going to continue to get more difficult, but if they keep, you know, putting green checks in those boxes, then all of a sudden I say, okay, I don't have any concerns about the offense. And if I don't have any concerns about the offense, then I really do think you can start to get a little bit more ambitious with your goals for this team. Well, here's an interesting question.

Starting point is 00:14:52 Where would you rank Illinois among the like fronts that KU is going to play? Jerzon Newton for Illinois. He's going to be a first round draft pick. The other guy who's up front for them is really good. He was, you know, preseason all American as well. Good front seven, good front four. I'd imagine after Texas, what they did to Alabama, that's probably the number one you're circling in terms of fronts. Who knows about Oklahoma? Defenses look good so far.

Starting point is 00:15:14 I trust Brent Venables, but also it was bad last year. Is there a chance that Illinois was a top three or four front or defensive line that you played this past week, and wouldn't that be a good sign for the rest of the season? You know, I get what you're saying, but it's too, I don't like to play. Illinois looked really, really bad against Kansas. They looked really, really slow.

Starting point is 00:15:36 So even if Illinois ends up being good, it's not going to change my sort of depiction of them because I thought they looked terrible. They looked terrible on Friday night. So it's like Illinois could rip off a ton of wins in the big 10. We'll say, wow, that wins looking even more impressive. No, that's great for the committee, right? That's great for pollsters. For me, I watched them play Kansas and they sucked. So I don't want to look back on it and say like, wow, look at all those pros. It's like, well, they didn't show up on Friday and Lawrence. So I'm not going to give them credit after the fact.

Starting point is 00:16:11 All right. Let's finish up. Whose stat line is it anyway? First though, this episode of the show is brought to you by GameTime. Have you ever tried to find last minute tickets or maybe you're just, you know, stumped where to go? You maybe end up using like some off party side or you have to meet someone in person and you're just hoping that the tickets are real and they're not fake and you're stressed trying to

Starting point is 00:16:28 get them last minute. Don't do that. Don't have to worry about it. Get game time because buying tickets to your favorite sporting event shouldn't be stressful. It's fast and easy and you can go to anything from sports, music, comedy, theater near you. They have killer deals on last minute tickets and the best price guarantee so you can stop stressing over the tickets and start getting hyped for the fun that you're going to be having at the event. Like you should be having. I use game time all the time. I love it. You get to see the last minute deals. They have flash deals going on that you can get a discount on certain stuff. You see the images of your seat view and they have the lowest price guarantee with event cancellation, protection, job loss protection, and more. It's super easy to navigate.

Starting point is 00:17:05 They've got a great interface there with GameTime. You can even pay on it using Venmo, like directly from Venmo. So if you're buying tickets for a bunch of people, you don't have to worry about that overly big credit card bill. Just have your friends Venmo you. You can use it right there. Get exclusive flash deals on tickets for football, basketball, baseball, concerts, comedy, theater, and more.

Starting point is 00:17:22 The GameTime guarantee means you'll get the best price. If you find tickets in the same section and row for less, Game Time will credit you 110% of the difference. Snag the tickets without the stress with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off.

Starting point is 00:17:43 Download Game time today. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Finishing things up here with whose stat line is it anyway? I'm going to ask Nick a stat line. He's going to try to guess who it is. These are both KU football things here for 2023. This is a pacing player. So based on the two games, if you extrapolate them out into 12 games,

Starting point is 00:18:02 this would be his pace for the season. 54 catches for 996 yards. I'm going to say 50. Now I have to do reverse math. I should do long division in my head. How many more games does KU have left? They have 10 left. So 54 divided by 12 what is that be 54 divided by 6 54 divided by 6 would be 9 i think the it has to be lj arnold

Starting point is 00:18:39 right because he's the team's leading receiver so i'm going going LJ. It is LJ Arnold. That is the correct answer there. And he is that skills coming in handy, baby. There you go. He is the team's leading receiver, but it feels like to me, I don't know. Maybe this is just me.

Starting point is 00:18:56 I feel like he's kind of slid under the radar a little bit. I feel like most of the talks have been about the quarterbacks, running backs, Luke Graham, a little bit here and there. I feel like he slid under the radar. He hasn't gotten into the end zone yet. And he is, you know, pacing to be, I into the end zone yet, and he is pacing to be –

Starting point is 00:19:06 I mean, if they play in a bowl game, pacing to be a 1,000-yard receiver, which would be the first one in 15 years. Okay, then who do you think have been the three players that have gotten the most attention so far this year? Well, I mean, just inherently both quarterbacks, with Jalen Daniels and Jason Bean. Devin Neal would be the easy other one. Yeah, because I don't think he's being overshadowed

Starting point is 00:19:25 by any of the other receivers. I think Luke Grimm kind of has for, I don't know. I feel like he's been talked about more in the broadcast. But Luke Grimm got a touchdown, right? Yep. So maybe that changes it a little bit. I don't know. I kind of felt the same way last year, though, too.

Starting point is 00:19:40 Like LJ Arnold was the leading receiver last year. But I do feel like guys like grim and fair child, maybe it's some of the plays that they made. I don't necessarily know, but it's very clear that like, there isn't a ton of separation at the top of this depth chart. Like Luke grim, there is no one and two receiver.

Starting point is 00:20:01 It is one, a one B both in terms of depth chart uh the progressions like quarterbacks aren't playing favorites like they are spreading the ball out i mean jalen daniels had two highlights two major highlights downfield one was to lj arnold one was to luke grim so i kind of view them as a package deal because very rarely does one of them show out in a given game and the other one has a quiet night all right this one's on the defensive side of the ball this is total season stats so far 10 tackles one sack two pass deflections uh would it be hayden hatcher nope this one is jb brown jb brown the uh linebackbacker who has kind of been supplanting Tywon Berryhill.

Starting point is 00:20:46 Now he's listed up on the depth chart. They played him a little bit at defensive end and a linebacker last week. I'll be honest, I think he's KU's most talented linebacker. Yeah, well, they need somebody to pop in a way that the front seven hasn't really had. Like, we thought we had that with Lonnie Phelps after the first game, and then the rest of the season, it was just kind of like, okay, yeah, yeah right he's just sort of another dude once they started playing legit competition we talked about this at the beginning of the season how I said it wouldn't shock me if all of a sudden we start talking about names as being the best players on the defense that we weren't even talking about at all before the season because that is what

Starting point is 00:21:22 happens at the beginning of a program turnaround that is what happens at the beginning of a program turnaround. That's what happens at the beginning of a culture shift is we think we know who the guys are, but because these coaches are so adept at developing talent after a year or two, all of a sudden guys are going to pop. They'll have a massive off season. Things start to click. Game starts to slow down and we start to see dudes emerging and it happens in bunches, it's it's

Starting point is 00:21:45 not always just like one guy it may happen one two three four five guys across the roster we saw a big time last year on offense we saw a big time with luke grim and lj arnold and mason fairchild and jaylen daniels like all of a sudden boom daniel highshaw all these dudes looked like studs it's like where have they been like no they just didn't have the proper people above them, developing them, coaching them, teaching them. I wouldn't be shocked if we start to see the same thing here with the defense. Well, he is Nick Schwert. You can find him on Twitter, at Nick underscore Schwert.

Starting point is 00:22:18 I'm Derek Johnson. Find me there as well. You can find our podcast anywhere you get any of your podcasts, and you can also find us on our YouTube page. We'll see you next time with Locked on Jayhawks.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - How Does the Illinois Win Affect Kansas Jayhawk Football's Ceiling & Can They Contend in the Big 12?

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.