Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - How Houston Win, Cincinnati Loss Impact Kansas Jayhawks Seeding | Bracketology Breakdown

Starting point is 00:00:00 Wild Week for KU. We find out there are three seed from the NCAA tournament committee. Then they lose at home to Cincinnati. Then they beat Houston at home. Where the heck are the latest bracket? We're going to get to that with Graham Doran on today's episode. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:31 What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it at your first list. listen every day and making lockdown the number one sports podcast network. We are joined by Graham Doran on today's episode of the one, I don't know, a week or two ago talking Brackatology. Graham does excellent work and give him a follow at Graham Doran on Twitter X.

Starting point is 00:00:49 He's also the co-host of the unnamed Bracketology podcast where they talk about a lot of these things, but in, you know, even better depth than we're going to go into today. So check out all that stuff with Graham. And we're going to get into where KU's latest action puts them in Brackett. macketology, what we learned over the weekend. So a lot to talk about on this episode, which is brought to you by Fandual. User Profit Boost on an NBA future and get entered for your chance to win a trip to the NBA finals. Play your game with Fandul, the official sports betting partner of the NBA.

Starting point is 00:01:21 So, Graham, thank you again for joining. And like I kind of opened the show with, it's been an interesting, I guess, last, what, four days or whatever for KU. You find out they're the 10th overall from the committee, a three seed. then they lose at home to Cincinnati, a team who is actually kind of playing really well right now, weirdly enough, and actually ranks okay in like some sites, but in general has not been a great team this season.

Starting point is 00:01:46 And then all of a sudden you beat Houston by 13 at home. So given everything that has transpired here over this last week or so, where do you think Kansas should be sitting for the committee? Yeah, I think Kansas is about where the committee had them, on the weekend, right? So it's basically a net neutral. The Houston win cancels out the Cincinnati win. You know, it's actually not quite as bad as a net neutral.

Starting point is 00:02:13 It's actually even like a slight positive if you were to look at it. And the reason I say that is you just have a really big win against Houston. So losing Cincinnati, not the sort of win or lost that you would expect to take towards the top of the bracket. But beating Houston. Now that completes something really special for Kansas. Now they've beaten every top team in the Big 12. And I think that really will come up in the committee room is something that's very respected. And so I think for Kansas it's a slight net positive to actually lose the Cincinnati game and win the Houston game.

Starting point is 00:02:50 But again, a slight positive. For the most part, it's just pretty much a neutral. I actually have Kansas ninth overall now. And the reason I have the ninth overall is because I put Houston. At 10th, I do think that's a bit of a tenuous spot for Houston. They really still continue to have great metrics, have a very good win at BYU, beat Texas Tech, have an Arkansas win on a neutral court. Still a lot to like about Houston's profile.

Starting point is 00:03:17 But you just heard those teams I talked about. Kansas beat BYU too. They also beat Texas Tech. They beat Texas Tech on the road instead of beating them at home. They've also beaten Arizona. They've beaten Iowa State. They've beat Tennessee. They've beat NC State.

Starting point is 00:03:31 And I think that's the big difference is Kansas has a lot of quality wins. Houston only has a few. So I've actually got the Jayhawks right above Houston for now, but it's a tough spot to hold because Kansas is headed to Arizona and they probably need to win that one to be above Houston. Okay, that becomes very interesting then. I guess when it is all set and done, and obviously Kansas can play some of these teams again in the big 12th tournament, we'll kind of wait and see it puts out. But I think, and you mentioned Kansas being in all these other top teams.

Starting point is 00:04:02 I think you pointed it out calling it the Royal Flush on Twitter the other night, which was kind of a cool way of putting it. Do you think that is something that gives Kansas the, I mean, you know, maybe not if you're having a conversation with, okay, are they going to get a one-seat? But like when you think of the Houston's, when you think of Texas Tech, who is kind of around at least-ish this area, and we'll wait and see what happens there too. BYU has kind of fallen off a little bit. But I don't know.

Starting point is 00:04:29 Are we like this is going to be the difference of Kansas being ahead of some of those teams on the seed line? Or I guess does it have to be like they still have to have an overwhelmingly better resume? Yeah, I think it can be a difference for both Houston and Texas Tech. I think it could be problematic for Houston and Texas Tech. The reason I mention it for Houston, obviously, the not having quite as great of wins, but also it was the way Kansas won. If this was like what Iowa State and Houston did, where it was an evenly match game,

Starting point is 00:05:01 Iowa State just happened to come out on top at home, you can kind of almost look at that as a bit of a wash, but Kansas dominated Houston. So I think that aspect really helps. And then Kansas went to Texas Tech, and they've got that head-to-head result. And not just do they have the head-to-head on both of those teams, they have the overwhelming number of wins.

Starting point is 00:05:22 Now, Texas Tech, let's not joke about it. their wins either, right? Like, they beat Duke on a neutral court. They beat that Houston team that we're talking about and they went on the road and beat Arizona. So valuable in the committee's eyes to do that, but I think that head-to-head win by Kansas and just maybe a little bit more depth to the top-end wins should probably keep Kansas ahead of Texas Tech by the time we come to the selection Sunday. So I like to ask you these questions about kind of the ceiling and floor outcome of where KU could wind up seed-wise. and based on now what has transpired, you know, over these last four or five days and just three games remaining at this point for KU plus the big 12 tournament. What do you think we are looking at for the range of outcomes for both the path to whatever the highest they can get versus, I guess, kind of the worst case scenario would be.

Starting point is 00:06:11 Yeah, I would say the highest is actually still what I said last time, but one seat is not actually out of the public range of possibilities. Do I think that's going to happen? Certainly not. I'm very confident Kansas is not getting one-seat in the NCAA tournament, but it's possible. And I could run me through that scenario right now. It's just winning out, right? It's even more than that, right? It's Duke in Michigan and Arizona.

Starting point is 00:06:35 They're all pretty much set as one-seat. It's not guaranteed, but pretty close to it. But Yukon, they're a little bit vulnerable. So if Yukon were to lose to St. John's, lose both games to St. John's in the Big East, not win the Big East championship. lose it home to Creighton, it's a little bit of a rough look for Yukon at that point. They might be begging for somebody to take one seat. Now, where it's really problematic for Kansas, Yukon won an Allen Fieldhouse.

Starting point is 00:07:04 So even if Kansas won out wins a big 12 tournament, wins in Tucson against Arizona, they still have that problem of Yukon beat them in Allen Fieldhouse. Now, I think two things could come up there. One, Kansas would just probably have a better set of quality wins at that point. So that could be a difference maker. And the other thing that could come up in the committee room is, hey, Darren Peterson didn't play that game. So that could be another thing that the committee would look at. I think Kansas would have to really kind of almost be unequivocally better in order to get rid of that head-to-head result because it was at Allen Fieldhouse.

Starting point is 00:07:39 But it's not impossible that Kansas could be a one-seat. There's still a path there. I will say as far as a floor absolute worst-case scenario, really can't be worse than a four. seat at this point, I think. Maybe, arguably, a five seed if they truly, like, they lose it home to Kansas State. They lose at Arizona State. Of course, lose to Arizona. Maybe a five seed.

Starting point is 00:08:03 But realistically, Kansas has a top four seat lockup at this point. I think they're probably headed to a three seat. And you mentioned having to win at Arizona to stay in front of Houston for you, most likely this weekend. Would that potentially vault them into two seats? category as well. Yeah, I think two-seat is absolutely right there immediately. And in fact, I think Kansas would be very close to locking up a two-seat at that point in the NCAA tournament, because winning at Arizona, we just talked about how valuable it is for Texas Tech.

Starting point is 00:08:39 If Kansas had a sweep of Arizona, that, I mean, wow, you're talking about Kansas doing more damage to Arizona's profile than the rest of the country can buy. And, we're really talking about something very special at that point, again, combined with all these other ones. So I think Kansas at that point, as long as they took care of business against Arizona State and Kansas State, would almost certainly have a top two seed in the NCAA tournament by the time they enter the Big 12 tournament. And it would really take some kind of crazy results elsewhere to prevent that from happening. All right. I want to keep going with this Bracketology conversation. We'll also get into some Big 12 insights a little later in the show when we come back in a moment on Locked on Jayhawks.

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Starting point is 00:10:46 It's file by February 28th. Tech taxes off your plate and get back. to your life. Visit turbotax.com slash local to book your appointment today. Thanks you for joining us here on Lockdown Jayhawks and joined by Graham Doran, talking to Bracketology and unnamed Bracketology podcast from Graham. So just in general with the top 16 reveal beyond just Kansas, did you have a sweeping takeaway, whether it was about a team or just in general about,

Starting point is 00:11:17 hey, it seems like they're valuing this or that this year that you came away from the weekend? not really and I'll tell you why. I was pretty darn close to nailing exactly what the committee did. So my takeaway was they pretty much did exactly what I expected them to do. So don't change anything in the process, just keep doing what I'm doing. What I really believe happened, there were two things that caught me a little off guard. Kansas was right behind Florida. I thought Kansas would be in front of Florida.

Starting point is 00:11:47 But what I believe happened there is that Kansas did not yet play at Oklahoma State at the time the committee voted. And I believe the committee voted Florida ahead and did not factor in that Kansas had beaten Oklahoma State. They met on Thursday morning after already voting. And they decided to do a couple scrub moves. They said, well, now that Yukon's lost to Creighton, let's move Iowa State above them. And now that JT. Toppins out for the year, let's move Texas Tech down to a four seed.

Starting point is 00:12:16 I think they looked at Kansas winning at Oklahoma State. And they're like, yeah, we thought they'd win that game. Let's not move them. but I do think had they voted after that result had come in, I think Kansas probably would have been ninth and Florida 10th. Same thing I think happened with Alabama versus Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt was in the top 16, but they lost to Missouri and Alabama beat Arkansas. Neither of those results were considered when the committee voted.

Starting point is 00:12:40 And I think later they looked at them and they're like, eh, it's not a terrible loss for Vanderbilt. Alabama was at home against Arkansas, probably figured they'd win that game. So I think they didn't move those teams, whereas when I put together my top 16, I did it after those results. So really, I think we've been pretty darn consistent with what the committee is doing, so not planning on changing anything process-wise. Okay. And we talked a lot about the last time I had you on the locations for Kansas. And you kind of detailed out that it is closer to St. Louis just barely. So that would become the preference for the first weekend, potentially for KU.

Starting point is 00:13:16 but when you have Illinois and Iowa state ahead of you, that makes things difficult there. We talked about, you know, Greensboro being the possibility, obviously Oklahoma City's in the regional and everything. But where do you think we're at at this point from the first weekend pod for KU? Yeah, I think Kansas is likely headed to Oklahoma City. I don't want to, you know, say it's anywhere close to a near certainty because I don't think it is. But I think the most likely location Kansas will go to is Oklahoma City for the same reasons you mentioned. I would also throw Purdue in there. Purdue's been very strong recently.

Starting point is 00:13:50 So I think right now we're looking at three different teams that would prefer St. Louis, Iowa State, Illinois, and Purdue would all get preference before Kansas right now. Kansas would have to pass any of them, not just one, but two of those three teams in order to get St. Louis. So I think it's unlikely Kansas said to St. Louis, but certainly not impossible. With that in mind, their next location that they would prefer to be as Oklahoma City. They just handed Houston a costly loss. Houston wants to go to Oklahoma City. So this is a team that Kansas could potentially pass there. I have Kansas now ninth, Houston, 10th.

Starting point is 00:14:26 So I think Kansas would get that Oklahoma City preference. Preferably, Nebraska and Houston continue to lose if Kansas is going to go ahead and get Oklahoma City. Although I know, Derek, you're not a big fan of the Jayhawks heading there. The third choice is probably Greenville. And I would put it in those order. I'd say Oklahoma City is most likely then Greenville and then St. Louis is probably the third most likely location in Kansas. So do you think the pathway for Kansas getting to St. Louis would have to involve, I guess, I don't know, going deeper than Iowa State in the big 12th tournament or something, or maybe even like beating them if it worked out that way seed-wise?

Starting point is 00:15:04 It could be that, maybe more likely. You got to win in Tucson. Okay. Meeting in Tucson opens up a lot of the doors for the Jayhawks. Gotcha. Now, I have seen a little bit of pushback from some KU fans wondering why Purdue is seen as having a better resume or is higher on, you know, the committee's list on, you know, a lot of these lists that you're looking at. Then Kansas, what would be your explanation for the boiler makers being higher than the Jayhawks right now? Yeah, I think it's pretty simple. Purdue has been better on the road than Kansas.

Starting point is 00:15:37 That's it. And even outside of the road, they beat Texas Tech by 30 points. on a neutral court. I think Kansas has has quality road wins. Let's not talk about, you know, NC State and Texas tech being any joke. Those are very good road wins. Purdue just has a lot more and even higher quality road wins. So I think Purdue's road work is ultimately what separates them from Kansas at this time. Now, the Big 12 tournament in general, we've talked a lot about that it's felt like kind of the conference tournaments have been almost devalued a little bit in terms of the data points that they use for the selection committee.

Starting point is 00:16:16 You know, I don't know. It felt like maybe over a decade ago, like they were really important. Maybe it could boost you a line or two at the end of the day. Now it feels like sometimes it's just like they have the bracket set and it doesn't even affect it at all. But do you think that changes it all this year for, for say, a conference like the big 12, who if shock does kind of play out, you could wind up with some of these incredible, I don't know, even quarter like having a,

Starting point is 00:16:41 matchup between, I don't know, say Iowa State and BYU in the quarterfinals or Texas Tech and Kansas in the quarterfinals and then having semifinals of Arizona in one of these schools. Like, do you think that makes the, I don't know, importance of the Big 12th tournament or how they actually treat it, how they value it, that they will give it at least a little bit more of a boost than past years?

Starting point is 00:17:02 Well, I think they would want to give it a lot of weight. What we run into is a process issue. the same thing I just talked to you about with the top 16 reveal. They do these initial votes. And then it's a determination on, well, do you scrub a team? Do you not? And it's very easy to be like, well, you know, that Iowa State Kansas game could have gone either way, both good teams. And you just don't really move someone.

Starting point is 00:17:29 Or if you do move them, maybe you move them from like eighth overall to seventh overall. Not a really big change. If that game happened two months ago, the committee. is giving it more weight. And it's not because they want to give it more weight. It's because they can already process it before they do their initial vote. So I think the big 12 tournament games will be a lot of fun. They're probably only going to have big impacts earlier on in the week. The games later in the week are going to carry less impact unless if it tends to get around that last number one seed, they tend to pay a lot more attention. I think you saw that with Florida last year. They were able to

Starting point is 00:18:07 secure the fourth overall seed in the tournament because they won the SEC tournament. All right. We're going to finish up with some more thoughts on the Big 12 after this quick break in the action. This is Lockdown Jhawks. I'm Kleea Butler, host of Lockdown Women's Basketball. And this is Mazda's Women's Basketball snapshot, celebrating the work no highlight reel can ever capture. South Carolina rolled past Ole Miss 85 to 48 to clinch a share of the SEC regular season title

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Starting point is 00:20:28 Indeed.com slash podcast, terms and conditions apply. Need to hire this is a job for Indeed, sponsored jobs. Thanks again for joining us here on the show. You can check out the Everydayer Club for the ad-free version of the show at Lockdown Podcasts. com slash Everydayer. joined by Graham Doran, Derek Johnson here with Lockdown Jayhawks. I wanted to get some big 12 thoughts. I guess kind of a two-parter question here.

Starting point is 00:20:53 Does Cincinnati have a real path to making the NCAA tournament now after winning an Allen Fieldhouse? And I guess the second part to that, would that be a good thing for KU if it happens? I don't necessarily think it. It's a good thing for KU if it happens. And the reason why I say that is it actually is kind of better for some of Kansas's wins to shine a little bit more than their losses. Like the committee's going to expect that teams are going to take bad losses along the way. But those really nice wins, you want them to look pristine.

Starting point is 00:21:25 So you kind of want to say like, hey, yeah, actually, Cincinnati's fallen to some of these other teams too. And so it's really a big win that we got over Texas Tech. and when we beat Arizona and we beat Houston and all those teams. So I don't necessarily think it's a great thing for Cincinnati to make the field. But I do think Cincinnati's got a shot. And I would not have thought that a few weeks ago. I really thought they were basically dead in the water. I think they're still alive.

Starting point is 00:21:56 Alive is a barely way of saying it. They've got to win every game that they've got coming up until the Big 12 tournament. And then they're going to have to do some damage in the Big 12 tournament. but they've got a pulse, and that's more than I thought they were going to have. What other teams right now are kind of on the bubble, whether it's the right side or the wrong side, the conference? Right side, I would say UCF's on a good bubble side. If they went at BYU, there's pretty much no way they can miss the field. If they were to go ahead and win two of their final four games, I think they're all set. On the barely in the field side, I would talk about TCU. I think TCU is one of those really,

Starting point is 00:22:35 weird resumes. Where you look at a bad loss to New Orleans, you also look at them really not playing all that well against Utah in a loss either. And it's questionable. But then you look at the wins. That Florida win looks better by the day. Wisconsin's been a really good in Big Ten play. They also beat them on the neutral court. TCU beat Iowa State in Fort Worth. When you look at the great things TCU's done, the committee tends to reward teams that have done that great stuff. So very similar to what I talked about with Kansas, where the Cincinnati lost, you kind of want some other things to shine more. For TCU, their wins do shine. So I think TCU barely in the field right now.

Starting point is 00:23:14 And there's some teams that are still alive like West Virginia and Oklahoma State, but I'm not really given them much of a chance. And Baylor is pretty much dead as well. That one's crazy, the fall off for Baylor this year. Now, in looking at Texas Tech, obviously a very interesting team, and you mentioned them, you know, maybe dropping a tad because of the top in injury. but they were still in the top four seeds right now. And since that revealed, they've gotten a couple of wins, they beat K State, Cincinnati. Difficult final three games for them.

Starting point is 00:23:42 They're at Iowa State and at BYU amongst of those three games. Do you think they will be, like if they go one and two in that stretch, even if Topin would have been healthy, I think that would have been understandable. But do you think if they go, for instance, one and two in that stretch with Topping out now, that they'll be penalized more? I think they'll probably be slightly penalized more. it may come down to how they play. I think if they were to get blown out,

Starting point is 00:24:05 maybe there's more questions about how good they are. But if they were to be very competitive, I think the committee would probably cut them a little bit of a break. Okay, okay. So a lot going on into the Big 12, Big 12th Turn on. It'll be fun. The finale will finish up in a week and a half here and a lot to be determined.

Starting point is 00:24:23 Graham, thank you so much for the time, as always. Where can everybody find the unnamed Bracketology podcast? Yeah, just go on YouTube or YouTube music and search unnamed Bracketology podcast, and you'll find me and Carrie Miller there. There we go. So we got that going on. You can give Graham a follow at Graham Doran on Twitter,

Starting point is 00:24:40 and highly recommend doing it. It is going to be worth your time. Graham, thank you for the time, as always, man. Thank you, Derek. All right, and that'll do it for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere podcast. We'll see you. We'll start getting ready for the KU Arizona game

Starting point is 00:24:52 coming up in the upcoming shows here. So make sure subscribe to see some of that stuff, and we'll see you next time right here on LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - How Houston Win, Cincinnati Loss Impact Kansas Jayhawks Seeding | Bracketology Breakdown

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