Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - How Kansas Jayhawks Football Compares to Past Big 12 Champs + Why The Lack of Recent Commits is Okay

Episode Date: July 26, 2024

How does Kansas Jayhawks football compare to past Big 12 champions statistically and why they're good enough to win the league barring a few improvements in 2024. What's going on with the lack of recent commits for Lance Leipold, where the class stands overall and why everything is going to be okay for KU. Plus, 34 days away from the 'Hawks hosting Lindenwood and what that number signifies for Jeff Grimes, Owen Piepergerdes, Alex Raich and more.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply.eBay MotorsFrom brakes to exhaust kits and beyond, eBay Motors has over 122 million parts to keep your ride-or-die alive. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to bring home that big win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.FanDuelFanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. As playoffs wind down, the sports stop sporting like we want them to. But this summer, FanDuel is hooking up ALL CUSTOMERS with a boost or a bonus, DAILY! That’s right, there’s something for everyone, every day, all summer long! Visit FANDUEL.COM and add a big win to your summer bucket list!FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

On today's Locked On Jayhawks, why past history of Big 12 title winners tell us that KU can win the Big 12 Championship in 2024. You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can give me a follow on Twitter at DJohnsonRadio, and you can find our show. It's called Locked On Jayhawks. Anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page,

where you can like and subscribe to the show. Thank you to the everydayers tuning in to each and every episode. If you missed the Phil Steele episode earlier this week, what are you doing? And thanks for making this your first listen every day. We're going to be deep diving into past Big 12 champions, see where some of their stat benchmarks were and how KU from last year and possibly this year could compare to those for if they are good enough to win a Big 12 championship this upcoming season. We'll also get into the topic because it's been a bit since KU football has gotten a commitment over the summer is the high school recruiting,

the commitments. Are they done until maybe the fall or winter for the rest of this class for KU football in 2025? And we are 34 days away from Kansas versus Lindenwood. So that's exciting. We'll get into what that number signifies on today's episode of the show, which is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Make every moment more as the playoffs wind down, the sports stop sporting like we want them to.

But this summer, FanDuel is hooking up all customers with a boost or bonus daily. That's right. There's something for everyone every day all summer long. Visit FanDuel.com to get started. Let's start here. Deep dive into past Big 12 champions and what it tells us about KU's chances to win the Big 12 title this upcoming season. So we're going to look at some of the stat minimums or the benchmarks, I guess, for past Big 12 football champions going back to 2012, which 2012 was when you added West Virginia and TCU. Now, even then, it's going to be skewed because you had Oklahoma and Texas in the league,

and that made up a majority of the Big 12 championships over that time, basically because of Oklahoma on their own. But also now you have other new schools. You added UCF in Houston and BYU in Cincinnati, and now you're adding the schools that were coming over from the Pac-12, right? So it's going to be different, and maybe these aren't the best way to tell because it is such a new league and such a different state of affairs in college football, but it'll give us an idea of what do teams need to do at minimum who have won the championship before and where KU stacks up.

And because of that, where they maybe need to get better or where they're already good to go. So let's start with the offensive side of the football going back to 2012. Kansas averaged 34.8 points per game a season ago. It was actually a little bit higher, just a hair higher a season before, but around 35 points per game. Now, let's say they get to that mark again, which I think there's good reason that if Jalen Daniels gets hurt, it could probably be below that without Jason Bean. But if Jalen Daniels stays healthy all season long,

there's no reason the offense couldn't touch closer to 40 points per game, especially if, because, you know, Baylor averaged more plays per game than Kansas did last season by a good amount. We'll see if Jeff Grimes, I don't think he's going to speed up the tempo, like play a fast tempo, but will it be faster than KU, who was more of a crawling tempo a season ago, maybe get an extra handful of plays, and that leads to a few extra points. So 2021 Baylor, oddly enough, the offensive coordinator was Jeff Grimes.

Over that span since 2012, they averaged the lowest points per game at 31.6. Now, that's not me telling you they were the worst offense of the bunch. It's just that they did more run the clock. And with Dave Aranda, their head coach, more of a defensive guy, they had a great defense that year. They were playing into that. They were playing ball control offense. They would score when they needed to, but they were playing into the defense a little bit more. But you're above that. 2022 Kansas State, which upset TCU in the Big 12 title, they were at 32.3 points per game. And then even last year's Texas team was at 35.8. So you would be in range with all of those teams.

Then you have a bunch of teams who are, and this is typically where you're at, a lot of teams are at 40 or above. So you had 2012 K-State with Colin Klein, 38.8 points per game. Again, though, they were more of a ball control offense. So if you factor in tempo, that basically was the equivalent of a team averaging in the mid 40s. Then you get to all those OU years when they won the title from, gosh, what was it, like 2015 through 2020, something like that.

And all of those were above 42. You also had that 2014 TCU team that got left out of the playoff, 46.5 points per game. And then 2013 Baylor team had the most points in the span, 52.4 with that high tempo, fast-paced offense. So KU would actually be good to go here. They'd clear this benchmark offensively. But the only teams who would be below them in terms of what they averaged last year versus those past years, Baylor and 2022 Kansas State, they gave up somewhere between four to eight less points per game than Kansas did. So that tells you you need defensive improvement if you are going to be on the lower side of the minimum points leaders in the Big 12. If you want to be better off, get up closer to that 40 point per game avenue, which, like I said, if Jalen Daniels stays healthy, there's no reason Kansas can't get to that point.

What about points allowed per game? So Kansas gave up 26 and a half points per game a season ago. There's actually worse defenses that won the big 12, 2018, Oklahoma gave up 33.3 points per game. I believe that was the Kyler Murray team. All the teams run together because they were all the same. It was like great offense. Defense wasn't as good. And you had like a Heisman quarterback. He's like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray,. All the teams run together because they were all the same. It was like great offense. Defense wasn't as good. And you had like a Heisman quarterback. He's like Baker

Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts. So I think 2018 was Kyler Murray. They give up 33.3. That's not a recipe for typically winning the big 12. They just averaged 48.4 points per game. So Kansas, if you're going to go average close to 50 points per game, then it probably doesn't matter as much what the defense does this season. But for the most part, so you go to 2016 OU, that's a five point jump, 28.8 points per game, but still Kansas is better than that. But also 2016 OU averaged 40 point or 44 points per game. 2019 OU gave up 27 points per game. 2019 OU on the offensive side of the football scored 42.1. So you see the theme here. If Kansas is going to be similar, 27 points per game for 2017 OU, and that was when they scored 45 points per game.

If Kansas is going to give up similar point totals from what they did last season, if Kansas stays the same and continues to give up 26.5 points per game like they did in 2023, basically they need the offense to average 42 or more points per game is what that tells us, which is a touchdown better from an offense that was already really good. Like I said, I think they can creep up closer to 40 if Jalen stays healthy, but closer you get to those mid 40s, like that becomes quite the bear to kind of get to there. So where's the mark we're looking at?

I think this next one, 23 and a half points per game. That's what 2013 Baylor gave up, which is pretty remarkable. They scored 52 a game and they only give up 23 and a half. Like Baylor was obviously, I remember them being awesome those years, but like, I didn't remember it being that good. Now, maybe some of that was just picking on some bad teams and beating them 70 to zero when they couldn't like overwhelm it and it adjusted it. But so 23 and a half points, we're getting 2012 K state.

They give up 22.2, 2015 Oklahoma gave up 22. 2022 Kansas State gave up 21.9. 2020 Oklahoma gave up 21.7. That's a lot of teams stacked between about 22 and 23 points per game. Side note, 2014 TCU gave up just 19. Last year's Texas team was under 19 for defense. And the 2021 Baylor was at 18.3. A 2014 TCU team, if we would have had a 12-team playoff, I think they really could have won the national title. But anyway, that's neither here nor there. So basically what

I'm looking at here is I see a lot of teams between that 21 and 23 point per game range. That means unless you're going to score 42 points per game, let's say Kansas is going to improve on what they are, but not by a ton. It's going to be 35, 36, 37 points per game. Can you get the defense down to giving up 23 points per game? That would be about a three point decrease. They've done even bigger than that over the past couple of years. They went from 42 in 2021, 35 in 2022, and then down to 26 and a half in 2023. Can you get down another field goal? Obviously the lower you go, the harder it gets to make those movements. So how possible is that? I think it's definitely possible, right?

I mean, I think the linebacking core is going to be better. I think the interior of the defensive line could be the same, if not better. I think you're better at the strong defensive end spot. It's just that main pass rush spot with Austin Booker. You could be better at the secondary with everybody back. So can the defense be better? I think they absolutely can. But I think that's the mark I'm kind of looking at.

Can you get a little bit better? You know, three points per game, that doesn't sound like a lot, but it can be tough over the course of the season. What about yards allowed per play or yards per play? Excuse me, Kansas was at 7.2 last season. Well, that would have been better than 2022 Kansas State, 2012 Kansas State, 2021 Baylor,

2023 Texas, 2014 TCU, 2015 Oklahoma, 2020 Oklahoma. So clearly you're good to go in the yards per play category, but that becomes a question without Andy Kotelnicki. Are you hitting as many dynamic plays? And if you do, you'll be just fine there. Yards allowed per play. KU gave up 5.8 last season. That would not be the worst.

6.1 2018 OU, 5.9 was was 2016 OU 5.8 was 2017 OU but again you get into this conversation of yeah but if you're going to be like one of those OU defense defenses you better average in the mid 40s per game so the next one you would go down to is 2022 Kansas State 2012 Kansas State those teams are at 5.5 and 5.4 so can you knock down basically a little less than half a yard per game in what you're giving up? Again, you would think those would go hand-in-hand with the points allowed per game. And then the other big one here is turnover differential per game

because Kansas was positive last season, but it wasn't really a strength. They were basically close to even. I think they finished plus one on the season. If you look at plus-minus turnover differential per game, because some teams play 12, 13, 14, 15 games, right? So it's going to skew it a little bit. But if you look at per game, Kansas was plus 0.1 per game a season ago. Again, there were teams that worse 2019 OU, 2018 OU, 2016 OU. But that would be it. The rest were at 0.4 or better. And when you look at the, I don't want to call them outlier teams because they're not, they definitely deserve to win the big 12,

but outlier teams in terms of like, they weren't the Oklahoma or Texas of the world where they're not going to be predicted to win the conference each and every year, which would be the case for Kansas, right? Like if Kansas wins the title, people aren't going to be like, oh, they're going to win the next 10 big 12 championship, the next five, like Oklahoma reeled off in the mid 2010s, right? Who knows? Trust lens, like, well, you know what I mean? But if you take out like the Oklahoma and Texas is of the world, I think this becomes interesting because when you think about it, the Oklahoma's and Texas is when they're at their best, they don't always need the turnover margin because they have the best athletes and they're well-schemed and they're well-coached and things are clicking, yada, yada, yada.

For the teams like Baylor and TCU and Kansas State who have won Big 12 titles, they're really good teams and they have NFL players on their team and they have college studs on their team, but they're still not from top to bottom on their roster as talented typically as one of those schools who's bringing in four and five star kids every single year. And so you end up having to have a special season with the turnover margin. And so that's what I look at. 2021 Baylor was plus 0.8 per game. 2022 Kansas State was plus 0.9 per game.

2013 Baylor was plus one per game. 2014 TCU was plus 1.9 per game. 2013 Baylor was plus 1 per game. 2014 TCU was plus 1.4 per game. 2012 Kansas State was plus 1.5 per game. KU has to be better in the turnover battle. They have to do a better job of holding on to the football, not fumbling the ball, not throwing as many interceptions. They did a good job forcing interceptions last season, but they didn't get a ton of fumbles at the other end.

So this is one where I think some of it is skill. Some of it is luck. You have to hope for that perfect blend of the two this upcoming season, the turnover margin, but you know, overall going through those categories, I was pretty surprised by how well KU cleared those marks from last season. And obviously the goal is to improve and to be even better this year. So statistically, there's no reason this shouldn't be an accomplishable thing. Like to me, statistically Kansas should be there.

It's just going to come down to if they can execute in those close games and pull off a few games that maybe they should or shouldn't win. But Kansas is to me, good enough to win the big 12 championship. This episode of locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by eBay Motors. Passion, drive, and patience. The formula for winning championships is also what keeps your ride or die alive. eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle

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Thank you to the everydayers tuning in to each and every episode. And if you're a newcomer, hopefully you can become an everydayer. And thanks for making this the first listen every day. Of course, we have plenty of other content going on around the Locked On Podcast Network from Locked On Big 12 to pick a school Kansas is going to be playing. If you want to see what's going on over there to Locked On College Basketball, if you're still in that mood to stuff going on in the NFL, NHL, NBA, you can get it all with the Locked On Podcast Network.

So it's KU football's high school class officially done until the fall or winter? It's been several weeks since they have added a commitment. And obviously, it was a flurry of commitments for a few weeks there in the middle of the summer. Last year, it was a flurry of commitments in the summer, and they got the recruiting class finished. This year, the class is destined to be bigger just because of how many seniors you're going to be losing off the roster at the end of the season and the question becomes

how many will they still add I would imagine probably around a handful more I don't think they're going to get to 20 but maybe it ends up being around 17 18 19 kids somewhere in that range and then you fill out the rest of the transfer portal and if you end up with only 16 then you just have a few more scholarships to go and use the transfer portal on. But I find it interesting because I know there have been some KU fans who very much like follow the football recruiting and have felt a little bit, I don't know, stressed, worried about,

it's felt like KU has been in on a lot of guys that maybe they've been finalists for or something or in the final three or the final five, but then they haven't gotten the commitment. It feels like as much as there's been a lot of commitments so far this year, there's been even more, I guess, swings and misses this year, more strikeouts so far this season. I would say this, like number one, you're not measured in recruiting in terms of, I mean, you sort of are. I'll explain this after I say it, because it might sound kind of stupid. You're not measured off the guys you don't get. You're measured off the guys you do get. Now, what I mean by that, like I said, if you miss out on a recruit and the guy you

brought in at the same position ends up not doing well, then yeah, like that is held against you in a certain regard. But like if you miss out on someone, but then you go and bring in a different recruit and that recruit you develop into a good player, you're more judged on that if that kind of makes sense. So I think that it's, it kind of comes with the nature a little bit in that you have to be willing to put yourself out there and there's going to be times you lose out. Don't let the fact that there have been more times that maybe you've gotten

your hopes up that, Oh, we're going to land this commit and that it doesn't end up happening twist into the idea that this recruiting class is any worse or anything like that because where does this class sit overall right now compared to the past few classes so let's just look at the Lance Leipold classes which uh not counting 2021 technically his first season there but that was put together by the Miles staff and then kept together by Emmett Jones when he was interim head coach, and then they take over. So their first real class with this staff was 2022.

They had 12 high school or JUCO enrollees. Six of the 12, so half, were grades of 85 or higher on 24-7 sports with four of the 12, so a third, a 0.8500 or higher on the 24-7 composite, which takes all the recruiting sites together. And the two highest prospects that year were an 87 and an 86 on 24-7 sports. Okay. So then you go to 2023, 2023 of three more commits, 15 enrollees, 11 of the 15. So you're up from about 50% to 70%, basically, we're 85 or higher on 24 seven. So the recruiting class is getting better. 12 of the 15. So 80%, again, you're much bigger than the previous year, which was 33% wasn't 0.8500 or higher on the 24 seven composite. And the two highest prospects that year 89 and an 88 both trumped the two highest from 2022 so you're seeing improvement 2023 class better on paper than

the 2022 class okay let's go to 2024 obviously this was a pretty stalwart class for ku they had for KU. They had 17 enrollees. All 17 got an 85 or higher on 24-7 sports. So 100% is obviously higher than the 70%. 15 of the 17, so almost 90%. So 15 of the 17 were graded a 0.8500 or higher on the 24-7 composite. And the two highest, again, taking it higher, 96 with Deshaun Warner and a 90 with Dak Brinkley. So again, you're raising the heights of the recruiting ranks. So this year, I think this is partially what makes people feel a little hasty too, is that, well, it's not living up to what last year's was. But last year's was a, it was a unbelievable class.

Like, I mean, you could argue by some metrics, the best class the Kansas has brought in. We'll see how it works out and everything like that, but on paper coming in. So, so far this year, KU has 14 commits from high school. 13 of the 14, which is 93%, are at 85 or higher. So, that's higher than 2022. That's higher than 2023. And in the case of first 2022, it's not even close. 11 of the 14, so just under 80%, are 0.8500 or higher on the 24-7 composite. And the two highest rated prospects, 89 and an 88. So if you were ranking the classes by what you just brought in on paper in terms of that overall kind of numbers there that Lance Leipold and his staff has done, 2024 would by far

be the best recruiting class. Then it'd basically be a tie between 2025 and 2023 but i would lean 2025 and then 2022 would be last at least just on paper at the time and the reason i would argue 2025 edges out 2023 um is because when you look at it you know one less commit for 2025 versus 2023, two more of the players though are 85 or higher on 24 seven sports. Yes. There is one less player. Who's a 0.8, five, zero, zero or higher on the composite, but also the two highest prospects are the same. And in theory, they're still going to add more commits. So I think it's going to end up even

better than that. And so, you know, sometimes you swing and miss more. I think we're seeing two between 2024 and 2025. Like the big difference is Jordan Peterson. If you took Jordan Peterson than that. And so, you know, sometimes you swing and miss more. I think we're seeing too, between 2024 and 2025, like the big difference is Jordan Peterson. If you took Jordan Peterson away and they don't land all those desert edge kids from Arizona, the class of 2024 looks eerily similar to the class of 2023 and 2025 at this point. And that's the difference of Jordan Peterson, which you no longer have. So to me, like they're just continuing to recruit at the same level, which yes, maybe because the last year you got your hopes up of what it could be that you'd be landing a couple of four stars each and every year. But the beauty of this is even the class of 2025 that Kansas has right now, or the class of 2023 from a couple

of years ago, it would have been a better class than what David Beatty or Charlie Weiss or some of these guys were bringing in. When you just look at the percentage of the players in the class that are 85 or higher when you look at the percentage the quality of the player as opposed to the quantity of what they were bringing in it's night and day and you have the development factor of Lance Leipold and company so I don't know how many more commits they're going to have between now and maybe the middle of the season or something like that but I'll say this this, like, I feel comfortable with where they're at. They're probably going to add some more commits. And I trust this staff to kind of figure it out and develop the right players and find the right diamonds in the rough.

Let's continue on here. We're 34 days away from the first KU football game of the season. This episode is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. I love sports. I love them so much, but I never want them to stop. But as the playoffs wind down, we have fewer games, and the sports aren't sporting like you want them to. But FanDuel lets me keep the sports going whenever I want.

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We are 34 days away. Unfortunately, we do not have a Locked on Lindenwood, at least as of yet, as of great content, depending what you're looking for. We are 34 days away. Unfortunately, we do not have a locked on Lindenwood, at least as of yet, as of yet, to get kind of the other side of things, but 34 days away from Kansas versus Lindenwood. So what does that number 34 signify here? Well, we mentioned it earlier, Kansas averaged 34.8 points per game a season ago. And so I think if you were to take the over under, I would take the over that the number gets better. But again, if Jalen Daniels gets hurt, do you become more of a ball control offense and try to slow things down even more? You know what I mean? And then does that number definitely drop in addition to the having Jalen Daniels like that could certainly

hurt. But if he can stay healthy enough for a majority of the games, I like the over on this. I think it could creep closer to that 37, 38 point per game mark this year. Kansas scored 34 in their win over Illinois. And I bring that one up because that's going to be an important game once again, to kind of set the tone. Like Illinois didn't end up being a great team last season, but what it did is set the tone early in the season. You had the blackout. Kansas got a big early. Obviously, it felt like Kansas was much better than 11 points, better than Illinois a season ago. Things just kind of got away at the end of that game. Things got a little bit squirrely, the weird targeting calls with two of your most important players on the field and stuff like

that. But this time it's on the road and you're trying to set the tone early in a tough spot on the road early. That'll be a very important game for KU, even though it doesn't count to the conference standings. And then the last one here, number 34 is Owen Peeper-Gerdes and Alex Reich, two players I'm very interested in with Reich. Does he get some playing time beyond special teams? Is maybe a Hawk or a Cinco or maybe a sub package linebacker or rotating in at linebacker? We saw KU mostly play like five linebackers rotating along last season.

And we've talked a lot about the guys growing into bigger roles, but who steps into the more backup roles? Could Alex Reich be one of those guys? And then with people, Gerdes, is he going to win the kicking job and how good is he going to be? Because Seth Keller kind of struggled a bit as the back half of the season went on last year to where it left some questions in the kicking game.

And then he graduates, which leaves even more questions. See if O and P can kind of take that down in fall camp, or if it ends up being Charlie Weinreich, or if it ends up being kicker by committee, which would not be a good thing, or if there's walk on tryouts and somebody ends up beating everybody out. I don't know.

That'll be very interesting, but that'll do it for this episode of locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere. You get your podcast, including on our YouTube page. We'll have a bonus episode later tonight with Darius Acuff, who is the five-star commit who's picking between Arkansas, Kansas, and somebody else in what that decision goes.

Outside of that, we'll be back next week on Monday. So make sure to subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcasts. We'll see you next time on LOJ.