Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - How much does Jalon Daniels affect the KU Football win total and What If KU was ranked?

Episode Date: August 17, 2022

How much does Jalon Daniels performance affect the win total for Kansas Football? And a What-If-Wednesday for if the Jayhawks start 3-0/4-0, would they be ranked, and would that deem the season for Lance Leipold's squad a success? Derek Johnson is joined by Scott Chasen. Plus a look at who could emerge at wide receiver like Luke Grimm and Lawrence Arnold.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks, we're joined by Scott Chasen to talk KU football. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well on Rock Chalk Sports Talk, Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 on KLWN. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcasts. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcasts. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're joined by Scott Chasen,

who comes on to talk about Jalen Daniels, the KU offense, KU football in general, headed into this season, and we get to our first edition of What If Wednesday with Scott. Scott Chasen, who also is part of Booth Review on Kansas City Sports Network, joins us now on a Wednesday for Locked on Jayhawks. On yesterday's show, I had Nick on and we discussed how good can Jalen Daniels be. And one thing that we didn't bring the conversation into, that obviously is very pertinent here, is that if he is that legit, if he is that good of a quarterback, top 5-6 quarterback in the Big 12,

and he extrapolates out what he did in the final three games of last season into a full season of play this season, how many wins can Kansas get to? Because it's very hard to imagine Jalen Daniels putting up big numbers or putting up a season that is a top-half quarterback in the Big 12 and it not leading to a certain amount of wins. So what do you kind of view as the baseline there based on how Jalen Daniels performs?

Well, it's a good question, and I think it's the question that kind of determines where Kansas goes this season. And Derek, I've mentioned this to you before, both on and off air. It's incongruent to say, like in back-to-back sentences, I think Jalen Daniels is one of the five best quarterbacks in the Big 12. I think Kansas is going to go two and 10. Those sentences don't line up because a quarterback is, I mean, it's the most important position in football. You elevate the play of not only your receivers, but of your linemen, because you're not putting them in position where they have to block forever. You have a good

internal clock. You know how to get out of trouble and maneuver, especially with the run game. And he's a capable runner. You lift your running backs because if teams are worried about what you're doing, you're going to put them in better positions to succeed. You're managing the clock better. You're helping your defense. You're helping your coaching. So I don't believe in this idea that Jalen Daniels could be one of the best three, four quarterbacks in the big 12. And then Kansas is just going to go lose 10 games. I don't think those statements work back to back. So what it, what it means,

I guess what it comes down to to me is I think Kansas has two winnable non-conference games and a third that they're not supposed to win, but you would never say it's impossible. I mean, they beat Texas. They could have beat Oklahoma last year. Then there are a pretty clear bottom three in the big 12 in Texas Tech, TCU and West Virginia that they certainly won't win all of those games, nor should they, nor do most average teams when all their, you know, winnable games, but they should compete in all three of those and maybe with Iowa state or maybe, you know, a couple other games. So I don't know.

It's hard to put like a floor and a ceiling on it. The word you used was baseline. But I just think there is actually the potential. I'm not picking them to win four, five, six games. But if Jalen Daniels is that good, they should be more in that range than they should be in the zero to three range, because I think a top 3, 4, 5 quarterback in the Big 12 is good enough to put up 30-plus points regularly and good enough to keep you in a lot of football games. Yeah, and I think it's kind of a chicken or the egg, too,

and maybe not even that because it's dependent on other players. I've talked about this before, that Jalen Daniels could be a, if you just went to the park and were picking players, he might be a a top half quarterback, but the stats might not show it at the end of the year if the offensive line isn't good enough or there's injuries there or the receivers don't mesh together and find that chemistry with him. So there is kind of the difference in that conversation of whether he is a top half quarterback versus will he put together a top half quarterback season? Like for instance, you know, Todd Reising, versus will he put together a top half quarterback season. Like, for instance, Todd Riesing. Todd Riesing put together a top third of the Big 12 season in 2007.

In 2009, two years later when he's a senior, he probably was still a top third of the league quarterback, but I don't know if he still put together a top third of the league season. He might have. I don't know. I'd have to go back and look. But when you go five and seven, that might not be the case. And sometimes it is about kind of circumstances around you. So if I gave you this stat line for Jalen Daniels,

which I don't think this stat line would make you think this is a top half quarterback in the Big 12. If I said he throws for 2,400 yards, so that would be 200 a game, 15 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. What would be your guess on KU's record? Yeah, that's a good question. I don't necessarily know that that would be good enough, especially because like yards to me, this is a stat that's gotten me in a little bit of trouble with the KU football

fan base before. Carter Stanley had a game years ago against k-state where he threw for like 400 something yards uh he might have had two touchdowns in that game yeah so i was just looking at at that game uh to put in some questions for our trivia event on rcst trivia it was it was like you got the stats yeah it was it was uh like 400 yards it was two touchdowns it was two interceptions yeah and i believe the ku offense scored like 14 points or 18 or maybe it was 20 it might have been it was 21 it was 34 21 i believe was the final okay so we were talking on a podcast i was with k-sports at the time um and i said i would

give him a b because that's a lot of yards and two touchdowns is nice. But what about when you throw for four touchdowns or five touchdowns or six touchdowns, or your offense scores 40 points or 50 points, like that's an a and, and so throwing for a lot of yards is great, but you know, that's where I saw that. And people got really mad at me mostly because I think he was had lackluster quarterback play, but I, you know, the, and that's when you get into the conversation where you were just referencing about like, how good are you, how good are the pieces around you? And what is that turning into in terms of productivity? So I should clarify, I mean, like Jalen Daniels productivity, I think a lot is determined by him, but a lot obviously is determined by the other pieces.

Now that Todd Riesing season you mentioned, I think that's a good comparison for two reasons. One, KU still won five games, which would be more than KU has won in any season since Mangino. So again, I'm not talking about Jalen Daniels being great and KU winning nine, 10, 11 games. I'm talking four through six, basically. So that's in that range. And two, I think he was injured. And I think they dealt with injury much of that year. So I think he was injured and I think they dealt with injury much of that year. So I think that also had a lot to do with it, but no, it's, it's just, it's a very different and interesting conversation when you think about like what his ceiling, what his capabilities could be because I don't think those stats would be enough. Like,

I think the touchdown count would have to be a lot higher and if that's his interception total, like if he's, if he's averaging one a game, he's got to be accounting for like 25 touchdowns. And I think Carter Stanley was in that range in terms of passing and rushing touchdowns. I think he was maybe right at 25, I think. Um, so, you know, that can be good enough. And that was good enough that season to have Kansas in, you know, they, they were in the coastal game. Um, they obviously won their opener. They beat Boston college. They, uh, led Iowa State into the fourth quarter they led Texas in the fourth quarter uh they beat Texas Tech so that's six games right there uh West Virginia was a one score game and so

those numbers weren't like world beater numbers but they were in all those games I think you'd have to do better than the numbers you outlined I mean what do you think Derek if he puts up those numbers on two and ten three and nine yeah I think, Derek? If he puts up those numbers, 2-10, 3-9? Yeah, I think 2-10, 3-9 are in the discussion. If he puts up better, like what you're saying with 25, I think you're looking at 3 or 4. When we come back in just a moment, we're going to get to our What If Wednesday. But first, you're hanging out with some friends and putting back a few drinks.

A few becomes a few too many. As the evening comes to an end and people start to head out, you think of calling for a ride. Nah, you live nearby. You can make it home okay. It's no big deal. What are the odds you'll get pulled over anyway? And even so, what's the worst that could happen? Your insurance goes up, you lose your license, you lose your job, you total your car, you kill someone. Everyone knows about the risks of driving drunk. The results are tragic and often deadly. However, that still doesn't stop everyone from getting behind the wheel while under the influence. That's why police officers are out

there right now looking for impaired drivers on our roads to save lives. So if you think you're okay to drive after a few drinks, think again. Play it safe and plan ahead to get a ride. It only takes one mistake to change your life or someone else's forever. Drive sober or get pulled over. On tomorrow's show, we're going to be taking a look at how much the defense can improve from year one to this year two under Lance Leipold and how much that could lead to wins, kind of like we did with the offense in our first episode of Locked on Jayhawks. We're here with Scott Chasen from Booth Review on KC Sports Network.

And we're going to be doing this on Wednesdays here on Locked on Jayhawks. We're here with Scott Chasen from Booth Review on KC Sports Network, and we're going to be doing this on Wednesdays here on Locked on Jayhawks, a What If Wednesday, where we look at different hypotheticals. So my hypothetical for you today, Scott, if Kansas starts the season 3-0, that would be a win over Tennessee Tech, that would be a Week 2 win at West Virginia, that would be a Week 3 win at Houston, and keep in mind, Houston is ranked in the top 25. They're, I think, 24th in the AP poll right now to open up the season. Assumedly, by then, they would still be undefeated. I don't know who they play before then.

So if KU starts 3-0, including a top 25 win with two road wins against basically Power 5 competition with Houston joining the Big 12 next year, would they be ranked? That's a good question. That's a good question. That is a good question. I think no, but I could see them being receiving votes at that point, depending on what Houston does. Obviously, I don't know who Houston plays before they play Kansas, but if Houston starts out with a loss or something like that,

I could see that being a little bit different. Yeah, I think it would be great. I think there would be a lot of excitement around Kansas fans. And I think if Kansas beat Duke to start for now, which is not going to happen, but it's, you know, it's fun to dream that, that Iowa state game on October 1st would be, I think is that game. Let's see. Is that game at Kansas this year? Is that game on the road? I think that game's at home this year, right? Yes. So that would be a party. That would be on level with the K-State game a few years ago that came on the heels of Kansas scoring 48 against Texas and then beating Texas Tech and everyone being really fired up and K-State obviously helping sell that place out. I'm going to say no to being ranked. What about you? You think they'd be ranked? You think they'd be getting some votes?

I guess it depends. So I looked at the Houston schedule. They're at Texas San Antonio, who was like an 11 or 12 win team last year, and obviously not a ranked team. But if Houston wins that, and then week two, Houston's at Texas Tech. So if Houston's already ranked and they win both those games, they're probably looking at like a top 20 team heading into the Kansas game. So if Kansas is 3 and oh I don't I agree I don't think they would quite get ranked but I do think

they would be receiving a lot of votes if you told me like top 30 if you extrapolated out the first five receiving votes I think they could squeak in there but then yeah if they beat Duke the week after I think it is like a real possibility so that would be kind of funny. I think five and one, I think they'd have to be five and one to start the year. Cause it's, it's Iowa state and then it's TCU. I think that gets them ranked. I think anything short of that,

the voters are going to have a hard time with that. But Derek, what odds would you give me on Kansas starting five and one this year? That's a, what if Wednesday for you, man? I mean, just to get to five wins in general,

right? The Vegas over under is two and a half. Now that's like minus one 50, one5, something like that on the odds. So I feel like if it was three and a half would probably be around even odds. Four and a half, if you're going over, you're probably getting around like, I don't know, plus 200, something like that, like two to one. And that's just for them to win five games over the entire season. Now, if you're saying to start five and one, it's probably, I don't know what,

like five to one odds. Is that too low? No. Yeah. I think you need to make the odds a little longer. Look, I think Kansas has a great chance to be in five of the first six games of the season, but I think it would be longer odds than that. I think you'd be looking at like legitimately 30 to one,

40 to one, something like that to win five of the first six. But I, I mean, it's not, like I said, it's not going to happen, but it's interesting to look at that and say they should be competitive and

they should, they should be competing regularly. I mean, certainly for the first six and you would hope, you know, five or six games that they can keep to either single digits, or it can be a single digit game in the fourth quarter and you can see what happens. It's not expecting wins because yeah, I mean, I mean, they're all power five teams. If you want

to, you know, talk about Houston being good after Tennessee tech, obviously, but still, it's interesting to think about how competitive they could be because Kansas should be better, right? And Kansas was competitive in a lot of games down the stretch last year. Okay, I'm going to follow up to this. So if Kansas does start 3-0, and let's just go with the hypothetical that they do get ranked after starting 3-0, beating Houston, West Virginia, and Tennessee Tech, but then they lose the next nine games. So they finish 3-9. Now, big picture, you would be able to sit back and forget how it went.

You would just be able to say they had a one-win from last year they even got ranked at one point which hasn't happened in who knows how long right but if you looked at it more micro you would say okay but they lost nine straight games they couldn't capitalize on the momentum and clearly headed into the offseason now like you have negative momentum after last year, having positive momentum. Would you deem that a success? Would you deem that season a success or would you say not good enough? Well,

can I say neither? I, the thing with wins this year and Derek, I've told you this before as well. I I've said this and I know some people don't agree, but I've seen three and nine at Kansas. I've seen three and nine in the last year of David Beatty. I've seen three and nine in the first year of Les Miles. Now I'd argue both those teams should have won more games. Certainly the David Beatty era. I mean, when you're opener, you win four games, the Les Miles

year, all those games they led in the fourth quarter and how that the coastal Carolina brutal 12 to seven loss went that, that was in my opinion, easily about a five win team that, that just had every single 50 50 game except one pretty much go against them. Right. So yeah, I, I, I wouldn't call it a failure if they go three and nine. I, and I wouldn't call it a success either. I think the only way I'm going to deem a win total success is if it's four or more, because that's something they haven't done.

And I don't necessarily think progress has to be linear, right? Like we've seen a lot of teams win one or two games and then jump up to eight, nine, 10 or six, seven, eight, whatever. If you want to adjust for Kansas football, go from two to four, five, six. That's happened a lot in the history of college football. It's happened at all levels of football because when you get your culture in place, when you get the right players in place, when you hit at the quarterback position, you can make a massive leap like that. So if I'm only judging on wins, I want to see four plus, but I don't think that's like an expectation.

I think that's where I'd be different that they could go three and nine. They could compete in a lot of these games. They could be in a lot of these games. They could be a player two away. And I would say, yeah, that was a pretty successful season in terms of how they grew and what they did. And now they need to show that with wins the next year. So I think that's where I kind of diverge between the two thoughts, because if, if someone wants me to look at a win total at the end of this year and say that was successful, it's got to be four plus. Otherwise, I'm going to have to look for other reasons why the season was successful. Yeah, I think I agree. But if I made that same scenario, if you get to four and

oh, and then you lose the last eight, would you still deem that successful? Yeah, I'd say I'd say without knowing how the other games went, I would call it a success just because they haven't done that. And I wouldn't underestimate like winning four games is a huge deal. Like just first of all, being in that many games, Kansas has. Um, they were briefly in the coastal Carolina game in the second half and then, you know, they needed like an onsite kick to go their way and it didn't. And that was pretty much the end of any potential comeback. Um, just winning four games would be huge. And then, yes, I would say pretty much it would be very hard. Like they would have to win those four games and then everything go like completely to hell over the back half of the season and players to be unhappy and coaching miscues and stuff for me to look at that and be like, well, they won four games, but that wasn't really successful. So I would change that. Yeah. If they start four and oh, even if they lose

their last eight, I think you would look at that and say like, hold on a sec, like something happened here that hasn't happened in how many years, like 13-ish years, I think at this point, that's a big deal. But again, I would be looking for more than wins because ideally you'd like them to compete in a lot of these games. And I kind of joked about going like five and one earlier, but if they compete in their first six games to start the year, people will make note of that. And the fact that you have a staff that's not outgoing, right? Like David Beatty competed in a lot of games his last year, but it was clear that it was kind of the end of his tenure. They needed something new.

That approach wasn't working. I think that would be a little bit different with Lightbulb building the program. He is Scott Chasen. Scott, I appreciate the time, man. Thanks for having me. In just a moment, we're going to get to our number eight question of things we're excited to get answered in the KU football season. Let's keep it rolling. Our top 10 questions we're excited to get answered in the KU football season. Let's keep it rolling.

Our top ten questions we're excited to get answered for the KU football season. We had number ten on Monday's show, number nine on the show yesterday with Nick Schwert. Number eight, who's going to emerge at the receiver position? You have the Luke Grimm-Jalen Daniels connection that has been so profitable for those two guys, and there has been a significant increase for Luke Grimm in terms of receptions, receiving yards, all those stats when Jalen Daniels is in the game. And I actually got a chance to ask Jalen Daniels that question earlier media availability this year. And he said that, yeah, we just came on in the same class and we just kind of hit it off right away

and found that connection right away. To have that guy, I I think is very beneficial so he's someone that I view as a definite candidate to kind of merge at the receiver position Lawrence Arnold is obviously a guy who has you know he's 6'3 6'4 can run fast can jump and make these contested catches and make good possession catches for you on the outside that it would certainly make a lot of sense for him as now an upperclassman in year three to have a breakout season then you have a guy like Trevor Wilson who has all sorts of speed home run threat I don't really view that as being a guy who's going to emerge as all of a sudden this number one receiver on the team I think he's more of a useful receiver that has different roles and niches that he can fill into. And then Doug

Emelian is kind of the wild card to me in all this. Transfers over from Minnesota. By everything we've heard from the coaches and other players, he seems to be really impressing so far in camp with his route running ability, his speed, his shiftiness, and just being able to be someone who can make guys miss in the open field. But also, he played just, I think, 12 snaps a season ago at Minnesota. Now, albeit, it's a 9-4 Minnesota team who obviously is going to have more depth, you would think, at that position Kansas was in. He was just a freshman a season ago.

Maybe he's a guy that could break out. But right now, the two guys I'm really circling, it has to be Luke Grimm and Lawrence Arnold. And how important is it for one guy to step up and be that true number one? I don't know. I think you can get by if you just have enough quality receivers in that room. And I think they very well could, right? There are other guys too that I didn't mention, guys who maybe were freshmen who we didn't see a lot of a season ago, like a Tanaka Scott or a Quentin Skinner. Or you have a guy like Steven McBride who caught 15 of a season ago, like a Tanaka Scott or a Quentin Skinner, or you have a guy like Steven McBride who caught 15 passes a season ago, mostly in kind of receiver screen situations, didn't have a huge season, but we heard a good amount of last season in camp, and now you

get another year under your belt that maybe he could have kind of a breakout season. Last year, though, you had Kwame Lasseter being that true number one guy and the ability to have that guy just opens things up for so many other players it makes the the quarterback so much more comfortable I do think that with the depth of tight ends and with at least options that are intriguing you you feel like you could have enough to be successful there because keep in mind this is going to be a run-first offense. I would still, though, be circling Lawrence Arnold and Luke Grimm as being the guys that I'm expecting to kind of be the number one targets. Is it going to be enough for you to be a successful enough passing offense?

I don't know. That's part of the question that we'll kind of wait and see. Coming up on tomorrow's show, we discuss the KU football defense headed into the season. If you have anything you'd like for the show to talk about or want to follow along on the action, you can reach out at DJohnsonRadio on Twitter. And don't forget to subscribe to the show so you're getting all the latest with Locked on Jayhawks. That'll do it for today's episode.

Have a good rest of your day. See some of you later today on Rock Chalk Sports Talk. Later.