Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Is Dennis Parker Jr. a BILL SELF GUY? Why Radford & NC State Transfer Wing Fits Kansas Jayhawks

Starting point is 00:00:00 Dennis Parker Jr. is an experienced player, a good defender, good rebounder. He shot well from three. What's not to like about his game? Let's break it down. And what do you bring to the Jayhawks this season? You are locked on Jayhawks. Your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. And today we're brought to you by game time. You can get your tickets at game time, download the game time app, create an account.

Starting point is 00:00:38 Use code locked on for $20 off your first purchase. And on today's episode, we're going to break down Dennis Parker Jr's game as part of our continuing player previews. Also get into kind of an interesting thing that is potentially going to be happening coming down from the government that could have an effect on sports in terms of some of the international players and could like, I don't know, we could be seeing a lot of seasons of Paul. Olympia, I guess point being for KU. Let's start right here with Dennis Parker Jr. He is a 6'5-pound wing from Richmond, Virginia, who's a four-star recruit coming out of high school, goes to NC State. As a freshman, he's playing as part of a team.

Starting point is 00:01:18 He's playing double-digit minutes per game. So, you know, back-end rotation player, but still a rotation player as a freshman on an NC State team that goes to the final four. Year two, he ends up playing a little bit more minutes per game again, still kind of a back end rotation player over his two years with the Wolfpack, he plays 14 minutes per game. So again, you know, kind of, but, but even if you just view it as that, if he can be a 14 minute per game player for KU, he's proven he can do that at powerful level, but now he's at two years since then to become a better basketball player, right? And he transfers to Radford and has a ton

Starting point is 00:01:49 of success this past season where he, um, is now 202 points away, uh, coming into KU from a thousand in his career. And of course, because of the new five and five that passed, originally, this was a move made for KU, where they were thinking, hey, we're going to get one season of Dennis Parker Jr. Well, because of the five and five, Parker Jr. can give Kansas two seasons in Lawrence, which I think adds even more intrigue as part of this, that if this does work out, if this does hit, you know, you can get multiple years out of it, right? So the stats from last season for Parker Jr, you're talking 32 games played and started, played 29 minutes per game, and averaged 18.3 points per game, 5.9 rebounds per game, 1.3.3

Starting point is 00:02:31 assists, 1.4 steals, half a block per game. He shot 48% from the field, 37.7% from three, so almost 38% on five tries per game. And then the free throw shooting was only 66%. But overall, he wound up in the 88th percentile in RAPM. That's really good, obviously. And that was his final year at NC State. Okay. Then if you look at Radford, this past year, 63rd percentile, which that gets tanked down a little bit

Starting point is 00:03:00 because of the strength of schedule, but still above average. If you're looking at wind shares this past year at Radford, 85th percentile in wind shares per 40, 94th percentile in wins above replacement player, and 97th percentile in P.E.R. So very efficient player and effective player this past season, right? And again, if we go back to his final season with the Wolfpack to look at his previous impact at the Power 4 level,

Starting point is 00:03:23 because he was such a helpful defender for those NC State teams, even though he was, you know, more of a back-end role player, NC State was over nine points better per 100 possessions when he was on the floor. Even if you want to say, okay, but how much of that was derived from some of the non-conference games when they're playing lesser opponents and he's able to come in late in games and just beat up other teams? Well, if we just look to ACC play in his final season at NC State, the Wolfpack were six points better per 100 possessions when he was on the floor

Starting point is 00:03:51 as opposed to when he was off it. So he's making a good impact in the ACC level. Last season when he was at Radford, the team was over 11. and a half points better per 100 possessions and he was on the floor. That's what you like to see, continued success for your team when you are on the floor. Three biggest strengths for Parker Jr. I think rebounding to me is the number one. Among guards, Parker Jr. had a 90th percentile offensive rebound rate and a 91st percentile defensive rebound rate. And to put it another way, his offensive rebound rate was less than a percent lower than Bryson Tillers was,

Starting point is 00:04:29 and his defensive rebound rate was slightly over a percent worse than Tiller. So you're basically getting, which, listen, I get it. Like Tiller wasn't a good enough rebounder for you to be playing at the 4-5, like he was doing at Kansas. But if you're saying you're getting Bryson Tiller akin to rebounding at the 2-3, where Parker's going to be playing the 2-3, that's more than good enough. Like, for instance, Parker's rebound numbers

Starting point is 00:04:56 actually pretty in line with what Trey White did last year on the wing. So, you know, we view Trey White is a good rebounder, but that's because he was playing the three. And so with Parker, he's a good rebounder, especially for the two, three. And then you throw in that you have Stokes and Dawes and whoever your center is, like it just adds to the idea that this is a really good rebounding team for Kansas, right?

Starting point is 00:05:16 And of course, you could say, oh, but yeah, he has great rebound numbers. He should. He's a good athlete playing in the Big South. guess what if you go back to his final season at nc state he was in the 92nd percentile for offensive rebound rate and he was in the 90th percentile for defensive rebound rate among guards defensively i think is the other big strength here for parker junior he's a six foot six good athlete he's a strong wing he has all the makeup to be a good defender and i think by most

Starting point is 00:05:43 the county is a good defender um so throughout his three seasons his teams so the two years in nc state the one year at Radford, average out over six points better per 100 possessions just on defense when he is out on the floor. So typically he's made a good defensive impact there. And here's his ratings for Hakeem rate over those three seasons, which what is Hakeem rate? It's a combination. It's just a view. It's like OPS in baseball. OPS is on base plus slugging percentage. Well, Hakeem rate in basketball is steel rate plus block rate. And if you combine those two numbers and get your Khrakeem rate, he was in the 89th percentile, his freshman year at NC State. He was in the 98th percentile, his sophomore year at NC State.

Starting point is 00:06:29 And then he was in the 89th percentile this past year at Radford. This dude's a good defender. And that's going to get you love with the Bill Self system, right? Is there a world where this dude could be Kevin McCuller? I don't think I would go that far. But like, there's some similarity made, like the rebounding, the defense, the six-foot-six wing. In theory, he can actually be a better three-point shooter than Kevin McCuller. I think Kevin probably gave you a lot more like ball handling and versatility defensively. So I'm not going to go

Starting point is 00:07:01 that far and say that would be the case. But like, I don't know, could it be diet Kevin McCuller? Like, you know, that would certainly get the trust of Bill South, right? Then the last strength here is in theory, the three-point shooting, which we'll get more on that of why it's just in theory. But if you look at this past season, shot 38% from three this past season on solid, volume. He wound up in the 77th percentile in playstiles as a perimeter sniper. He was streaky, 31 percent from three in November, 54 percent from three in December, 26 percent from three in January, 41 percent from three in February. And then he was 0 for five in March. So you just hope that if he's streaky, you get the streakiness and the

Starting point is 00:07:42 positive in March. But if he can be an average to plus three-point shooter, like that is a huge deal for both his game and for Kansas. Two biggest question marks for Parker Jr. Number one is playmaking and turnovers. And this is what I was saying, like, big difference with Kevin McCuller. Not that Kevin McCuller was Magic Johnson out there, but he could dribble a little bit. He could create for others at least a little bit. Not the case with Dennis Parker Jr.

Starting point is 00:08:05 He was in the fourth percentile this past season in assist to turnover ratio. And then you go back to his time at NC State where he's playing, you know, at Radford, he has the ball in his hands more. At NC State, he's playing more of a roll guy role. And so the turnovers are going to go. down, but even then it's 36th percentile or worse in his two seasons at NC State and assist to turnover ratio. So he's not somebody who's going to playmate for others. He's not somebody who's going to, you know, get a bunch of assists and not have a bunch of turnovers, and that's one of the

Starting point is 00:08:35 worries there. The other one is rim attacks. So he was 46 percent, 46th percentile this season and 11th percentile in NC State the year before in rim attacks. Now, that doesn't always necessarily mean getting to the rim. It could sometimes mean that like you pulled up off the dribble, you know, for a floater or something like that. But basically you were, you were trying to attack the rim essentially. And then you kind of, I guess, like, like pulled up from that standpoint. If we do look at his numbers of shooting at the rim, he shot 61% at the rim this season,

Starting point is 00:09:15 which is fine, you know, that's actually pretty good. But it's just the when he is the one, I guess handling the ball, it hasn't happened. Now, the free throw numbers were elite this season. So when he was attacking the room, he was getting to the free throw line a lot. But there have been some studies that have shown like certain numbers that do and don't translate when you jump up and level. Free throw attempt rate has not been one that has carried over typically. And if you go back and look at his two years with the wolf pack, he's more average at it.

Starting point is 00:09:45 Where is it Radford? He was elite at it. So could he have gotten better at it? Definitely possible. but it's not something I'm going to bank on. He's always also been kind of a bad mid-range shooter, too. So basically his offensive value is this. Grab the occasional offensive rebound and hit some threes, right?

Starting point is 00:10:00 And that could be a very valuable role for your team. And it's one similar that I think KU is going to be hoping for Cole Rosario. So like who's going to do it better kind of is a big question. But it's not the most diverse offensive game. I guess is the way I'd put it. One final thought here for Parker, what level of shooting is Kansas going to get? Going back to the strengths in theory, three-point shooting. Last year, three-point shooting was a strength for him, right?

Starting point is 00:10:22 38% from three on good volume. But when you look at his two seasons at NC State, you're talking 28% from three in totality over the two years with the Wolfpack, right? And so what's real? Is it the 38% at Radford? Is it the 28% at NC State? You know, the counting for the Radford one would be, okay, but the Radford one, not only was it really good,

Starting point is 00:10:44 it was on bigger sample size. He took 159 attempts from three at Radford. He only took 75 attempts over the two years at NC State. So it's a smaller sample size. It'd be easy to not have the most accurate number. It's also easy to say, hey, the Radford year was his easiest year. That was the easiest opponent. So maybe we shouldn't take that one.

Starting point is 00:11:04 But it was also be easy to say, hey, but the Radford year is the most recent year. And his year where, like in theory, you get better every year, right? So he should be getting better at it. And maybe that is more true of what he is now. So it's tough to say. It also is important in the video where he committed to Kansas, where he was doing like an interview with the field of 68. He did mention that over the off season leading into the Radford season,

Starting point is 00:11:28 he really nailed down his three-point shooting. He worked with like this historic shooting coach. And, you know, that to me is a tangible reason why the shooting got better. It wasn't just, hey, I just fired up more threes against worst competition. They went in. He had a tangible reason to improve, which makes me think he can be improved there. for his career. He's 34.6% from three. If you told me he shoots 35% from three for KU taking a decent amount of volume,

Starting point is 00:11:56 I think that would be good enough when you look at the rebounding and the defense that he brings to the table. But the question kind of becomes, what if he doesn't shoot well from three? What if he is closer to the NC State days? How would that affect Kansas? How would that affect the role? We'll get into that next. This is locked on Jayhawks. Our episode of the show is brought to you by Game Time.

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Starting point is 00:13:20 first purchase terms apply again create an account redeem code locked on l o c ed on for $20 off download the game time app today game time thanks again for joining us here on lockdown jhawks are what is the the floor and ceiling outcome here potential for dennis parker junior i think the floor outcome is this right the three point shot is more akin to what it was at nc state talking high 20s 30% from three the free throw rate doesn't translate over and then that basically makes him a he's not really providing much on offense, right? I think still, even in that world where the shot doesn't come along, because he is a good defender and rebounder,

Starting point is 00:14:05 he still can have a role. And I think that's one of the big differences between, you know, you look at like the times that KU's brought in players that haven't worked out via the portal. Like you think of, you know, Nick Timberlake, who actually still did stay in the rotation, but that's because that team was so thin. or you look at like AJ store or you look at this past year with Jaden Dawson,

Starting point is 00:14:28 guys who came in that you were expecting to be good scores for you and then they end up kind of at different points falling out of the rotation or maybe playing less minutes than you would expect. Well, okay, the thing with Jaden Dawson was if he wasn't making threes, he wasn't providing KU rebounding. He was very up and down on the defensive end of the basketball court. Well, the idea with Parker is that he is going to be one of your better defenders. He is going to be a really good rebounder.

Starting point is 00:14:52 So I do think that keeps the floor high that even in the world where he's not shooting well from three, you know, are you still the eighth man? Possibly. Maybe there's a world where if you're not shooting well from three, it's basically him and Luke Barnett are your eighth slash ninth man where do you need a three point shooter or do you need a defender for that specific matchup, right? Like maybe that's what kind of the floor is here. I think the ceiling outcome is the three point shooting is real. And it doesn't even have to be what it was at Radford, 38%. Can it be 35%? Can it be 36%? You know? And if that ends up happening. happening and he's at least above average getting to the free throw line with it. He's a good athlete can score in transition.

Starting point is 00:15:27 He's making those threes for you. He's continuing to rebound. He is one of your better defenders. At that point, he's not just a for sure rotation member who's getting minutes each and every game and is playing, you know, at least 12, 15 minutes per game. There's a chance that he's playing 20 plus minutes per game. There's a chance that he could work into the starting lineup if all clicks together, right? Like if things are slow for Taylin Kinney as a freshman point guard coming in and it

Starting point is 00:15:52 opens up a spot in the starting lineup. Well, then it's basically like, is Dennis Parker, Cole Rosario, you know, the more performative player right now? And they could earn a starting spot. And if Kansas wants to play super big basketball and go with that trend of college hoops, you could start a point guard like Leroydine or Taylin Kinney at the one. You could have Parker at the two at six foot six. You could have Stokes at the three with the seven foot wingspan. Then you have Dawes at the four in a center at the five. That's a huge lineup for KU to be able to throw out there. And as long as Parker's shooting three's well and your point card shooting threes, right? Stokes is going to shoot them at least well enough. I think

Starting point is 00:16:27 Dawes is going to shoot them well enough. There's still enough three point shooting, even though that is kind of a jumbo lineup. And that absolutely intrigues me, especially because last year, you look at Kansas and Trey White was really your only wing. And I think that has a big impact defensively. Because defensively, wings are by far the most versatile players that you can throw out there. I think there's no, you know, like you look at the 2022 team that won a national title or even the 2023 team the next year that got a one seed. Those teams were built off wing play and having a bunch of wings that can be switchable defensively and give you different options for guarding different people is helpful. And so if you're you're throwing out a lineup with Parker who can do just that with Stokes who can do just that, that becomes really helpful on that end. So I do think the ceiling outcome here is he's a starter.

Starting point is 00:17:14 And I think kind of my predicted role, I do have him in that like six to eighth man. range. Right now I'm leaning Rosario ahead of him in the rotation because of the experience in the self system. But I still think Parker is going to be a 12 to 18 minute per game guy shoots mid 30s from three is a strong defender and role player. And so if, you know, Rosario, the three point shooting doesn't come around or Parker just ends up being the better, you know, overall rebounder and or defender, then why can't he beat out Rosario? And then that puts you in the top six of the rotation. And then you're right there from potentially starting if you decide to play small or if you decide to play jumbo, one of the two. So I do think he's going to have a big role on this team.

Starting point is 00:17:57 And I think it's going to be important for him to shoot well from three because there are a lot of swing players for KU where I've been saying that. Will he shoot well from three? Will he not? And I think Kansas is going to have enough three point shooting, but it is going to be determined by all those guys doing just that, having enough shooting from three point range. And Parker kind of fits that billing as well. but because of the defense, the rebounding, I think that'll keep him in the Bill Self Circle of Trust,

Starting point is 00:18:20 as well as the experience and past experience playing as a role player on some powerful teams. And now he's older and better since he was at that point with NC State. All right, let's finish up. There's an interesting international thing kind of going around that could have an impact on KU and Paul M. B. We'll get to that next. So an interesting international thing going around here

Starting point is 00:18:48 is we're here on Locked on Jayhawks. Don't forget to check out, by the way, yesterday we did an episode with Phil Steele breaking down KU football. all, but the DHS scrapped a longstanding policy that allowed international students to stay in the U.S. until they finished their program. The new rule will limit their stay to just four years unless they receive an extension. Now, I think what's interesting there is as part of all of this, it is mentioned that the new policy not only will limit them to four years unless they get an extension, which I would think could happen with the five and five rule that they'll be able to get that.

Starting point is 00:19:23 but it also limits their ability to change majors or maybe more importantly, transfer. Now, again, all this takes is like, is this going to actually hold up? Like, I don't know, this feels wrong to me. Like, why can an international student not transfer, but a regular student can transfer? That doesn't really feel right to me. So we'll see if all it takes is an international student to like sue and a court holding it up and then it opens the floodgates and whatever. But as of right now, if that rule is to go intact, that basically means that Paul, And Bia is a Jayhawk.

Starting point is 00:19:54 He is just going to be a Jayhawk. He cannot transfer. He is just going to be a Jayhawk. Like, it's kind of messed up because it's almost like a situation where it's just like, well, that's cool. I'm excited for Paul and be able to be a Jayhawk for four years. You know what I mean? But it's also kind of like, yeah, but that kind of stinks for him because like, what

Starting point is 00:20:11 if there is a situation that pops up where like it is in his best interest to go somewhere else? It also puts him in a difficult situation or his agent because it's like if he can't transfer, you know. like what is Kansas going to like Kansas can low ball him in offers and that's kind of unfortunate too. I would hope that wouldn't happen. I would hope they'd be fair and reasonable. I guess the alternative would be, okay, if you're going to low ball me, I'll just go back overseas, right?

Starting point is 00:20:35 So you still have at least a little bit of leverage there. But is that more reason to actually recruit internationally, you know, and bring in players who you know that like if you bring in a high school freshman, they might transfer four times, you know, versus if you bring in a recruit international. and it's now against the rules for them to be able to transfer, you're able to really build out your roster and continue to develop it in a way that you couldn't right now and the current way of things. So I don't know.

Starting point is 00:21:06 Maybe that's going too far with it. And like I said, I'm skeptical on all this that like there won't just be a legal suit that somebody sues somebody and, you know, freedom of movement or whatever. But as of right now, that is something that could absolutely impact, you know, college sports, especially with college football. football, it's not really, you know, you're not really seeing a bunch of like international recruits coming in in college football or something like that. Some of the other sports, you know, maybe it matters a little bit more.

Starting point is 00:21:32 But certainly with college basketball, we've seen an influx of international talent. And that would have a big impact on where they decide to pick their first school because it might be their only school at that point in time. All right. That'll do it for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. once again don't forget check out our episode yesterday we talked with phil steel to preview the k u football season so check that one out anywhere you get your podcast including on our youtube page as well give us a thumbs up there as well as on this one if you could see you next time with l oj

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Is Dennis Parker Jr. a BILL SELF GUY? Why Radford & NC State Transfer Wing Fits Kansas Jayhawks

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