Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Is This The Worst Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Team of the Self Era + Why There's Still Hope in March

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, Kansas loses at Baylor. They officially have the worst conference winning percentage that Bill Self has had since Oral Roberts. Is this the worst team that Kansas has had in the Bill Self era? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. Thanks for tuning in here to Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:00:36 Give me a follow on social media at DJohnsonradio. You can find our show with Locked on Jayhawks anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. They get an everydayers listening to all of the action. We're going to talk about KU basketball losing to Baylor, talk a little bit about the game. Is this the worst team that Bill Self has had in his time at Kansas? Why there is still hope for a run during the NCAA tournament. And in March, KU women's basketball scoring a big top 25 win,

Starting point is 00:01:03 another one for them over this nice run of play. First, this episode of the show, though, is brought to you by Nissan. Are you the kind of driver that likes to push things a little further? Ever wonder what adventure could be around the corner? Take the Nissan Rogue, Nissan Pathfinder, or Nissan Armada and go find your next big adventure. Check them all out today at nissanusa.com so kansas loses to baylor 82 to 74 on the road in waco which drops kansas to three and six on the road three and six on uh against the spread on

Starting point is 00:01:35 the road and in big 12 only games two and six on the road good news is ncaa tournament settings are not true road games they're neutral site games games, which, yes, those are not at home. But, you know, KU did a little bit better in the neutral site, right? You beat a good Tennessee team. You beat a pretty good Kentucky team in some of the neutral site actions and everything. You smashed Wichita State, although, you know, that one more of a close home be and everything.

Starting point is 00:01:58 But, you know, that obviously continues to be a problem all year long for KU. It was great news in the game. Just Kevin McCuller come back for Kansas, not just because that means that, okay, he's not out for the year at that point, but it just showed that there was real progress to get him back. It was not great to see, however, Kansas continually dominated in the three-point shooting chart where Baylor hit seven of them, which is more of a pedestrian day for what they do, but you still get a plus 12 there because Kansas only hits three. It's just it's hard in today's day and age of college basketball to be successful when you're shooting as little threes as Kansas is with what it does in terms of spacing to the offense.

Starting point is 00:02:38 K.J. Adams really, really struggled in the game. And the rebounding stuff is very much conversation. Johnny Furphy really struggled and then doesn't play critical minutes. It was not the finest work for Kansas. And the result has left Kansas in this unusual and uncomfortable place that you're not normally used to seeing them be in, you know, from a team standpoint, it feels like they are trending in the wrong direction.

Starting point is 00:03:02 They're not clicking like some other teams are going to bring up here in the conversation of what is the worst team of the Bills off era. Is this it? Is it in the discussion? One of the ones I think of that's going to be in the discussion, we'll bring it up, is that 2020 to 2021 team that lost the Big 12. But they were clicking at the end of the season. Like they won like seven of the last eight games going into the NCAA tournaments. Even them, they were like headed in the right direction.

Starting point is 00:03:28 This one is fading in the wrong direction very quickly. It is kind of a bit similar to the 2004, 2005 team that really just faded at the end of the year. I think they're like 20 and two and they finished like three and five or something like that. That's kind of how this one feels. It's just, it's not getting better. Things are kind of staying the same, which is making it feel worse. Are they

Starting point is 00:03:49 not going to even have a double buy in the big 12 tournament now anymore? I think that is a very, very real possibility because you lose the game to Baylor. Now you're in this cluster of teams. I mean, if you can win both games this week, then I feel like enough will sort itself out that you'll get that double buy, but are you really going to be picking them to win at both games this week, then I feel like enough will sort itself out that you'll get that double buy. But are you really going to be picking them to win at Houston later this week on Saturday? Probably not, which means there's a real chance, you know, they're going to get that extra game in the Big 12 tournament. And I don't know, maybe there's a part of me that says, hey, maybe that's actually for the best because gives them a chance to earn another win and feel like they're headed in the right direction against a lesser opponent. Maybe they just need a bit more of that pick-me-up here. But then again, you know, if you're going to have to play three games in three days

Starting point is 00:04:28 or four games in four days, that's not great for a team this thin. So that's kind of a problem. Are they going to threaten to have, you know, Bill Self's worst NCAA tournament seed at this point? I think right now most sites have him as a three seed. So I don't think that's going to happen. But I guess it's not impossible, right? Like what if they lose both this week and you lose one of your first two Big 12 tournament games? Or

Starting point is 00:04:49 what if you split this week and lose in the first game that you play in the Big 12 tournament? Could you get a five seed? I don't know. Maybe it's not out of the question. And I think above all now is the question that we're going to get to here. Is this the worst team or in the running for what Bill Self has had in his time at Kansas, which would be wild considering that another team that we're going to bring up here in some of these comparisons is the 2018 to 2019 team. And so two of the teams that you could have this conversation about in Bill Self's time at Kansas, both were preseason AP number one teams. I think there is some similarity that we've talked about a bit between those teams and specifically the final product

Starting point is 00:05:28 of that 2018 to 2019 team, the one that finished the season. What they were at the beginning of the season when Doak was healthy and midway through the season when LeGerald Vick hadn't been kicked off the team yet, it was a different version of everything and different than this one. But the final product of that one seems similar to this one. And it was kind of a collection of parts that were, hey, we're really excited. Look at all these transfers coming in that didn't always hit.

Starting point is 00:05:54 So reasons why this one might just be the worst team that Bill Self has had at KU. Here's where this team ranks compared to other Bill Self teams at Kansas. And when you look at overall winning percentage right now, this Kansas team would be fourth to last. The only teams with a worst winning percentage, and again, this could actually get worse, right? If you split this week, it gets worse. If you split next week, it gets worse, right? You split in the NCAA tournament, it gets worse again, right?

Starting point is 00:06:23 But right now, the only ones with worst winning percentage, 2021, 2019, and 2014, all three of those lost in the second round. That doesn't bode well for you. The conference winning percentage, this is the worst conference winning percentage. It's clinched that way that it'll finish that way too. The Bill Self has ever had in his time at Kansas, even if they win both games this week. The Ken Palm adjusted EM, basically their ranking that season. Right now they're 17th in the nation there. That would be tied third to last only to 2004, which oddly enough was a season that Kansas made the Elite Eight. So that maybe gets your hopes up a little bit.

Starting point is 00:07:01 But also when you think back to that team in 03-04, that was Bill Self's first year. They were making adjustments. They were changing the system. You had experienced players like Aaron Miles and Keith Langford who had been to Final Fours. And as the season went on, you probably get more comfortable. So that one is a lot easier to point to and be like, yeah, even though they were 17th, there are a lot of reasons why that that one is a lot easier to point to and be like, yeah, even though they were 17th, there are a lot of reasons why that, you know, could have happened a lot easier and that you figure once they reach the NCAA

Starting point is 00:07:33 tournament, you know, first year of a coach experience players, they were going to play better. The other ones are 2021, which they finished 27th. And then right now they're tied with 2019, which finished 17th. For what it's worth on that 2021 team, I mentioned they were hot to end the year. They won eight of their last nine games headed into the NCAA tournament. They were actually number 18 on Ken Palm before the USC game, and they lost by so much it made them finish 27th,

Starting point is 00:07:59 which is the worst finish itself has had at KU. But when you take into account, because if you remember, Kansas had to forfeit out of the Big 12 tournament that year, and then they had to deal with players trying to come back with like, I remember Jalen Wilson had COVID, and KU had a couple other players who were dealing with stuff. I think David McCormick was dealing with like broken foot or something like that, that realistically, I think the way that finished, it skewed it a little bit. If those things don't happen, if those players don't get sick or have the injuries and stuff,

Starting point is 00:08:33 I'm not saying Kansas beats USC. I think given how the matchup was going, USC wins that game. They won by so much. It's hard to say the other. Maybe it's a closer game though, right? Or maybe Kansas is able to win another game in the Big 12 tournament if they didn't have to pop out of the Big 12 tournament. Maybe they get a different matchup in the second round. Maybe they make the Sweet 16 because they were trending in the right direction, unlike what this one is. But I do think that that becomes one interesting team

Starting point is 00:08:57 because that team obviously had flaws and came back basically with the whole team. Bryce Thompson transfers away. You did add Remy Martin, but that team basically with the whole team. Bryce Thompson transfers away. You did add Remy Martin. But that team basically brought the whole team back from a team that was like, yeah, I don't know if there's enough on this team. Like, you just got housed in the second round by USC. Do we really want everybody coming back? And right now you're seeing some of that sentiment about this team.

Starting point is 00:09:19 That, you know, you can get pretty much everybody back except for Kevin McCuller. And I think the one guy that people want back the most would be Johnny Furphy, and he maybe has the biggest chance to leave early among all the other players. But it is a good reminder, I think, for me because, you know, there's part of me that thinks that same thing too. Like, I don't know, this might not be a great fit. Like, maybe it would not be good if all of them come back. But maybe that one's a reminder.

Starting point is 00:09:42 2021, there were a lot of problems with that team, and by one metric was the worst team in the Bill self era and they brought everyone back and ended up winning the title so i don't know what to do with that but anyway back to this conversation by ken palm adjusted offense efficiency they are 42nd in the country this year that is the third worst that bill self has had at kansas the only one's worst 2006 and 2021 06 makes sense you had a bunch of freshmen in there and then by Ken Palm defensive efficiency, if you go by the actual rating, not the national ranking, this would be the third worst just ahead of 2014 and 2018,

Starting point is 00:10:15 which was so explosive on offense they were able to overcome it. So if you're talking about the thinnest teams too, we want to throw a non-metric thing in there. This is probably the thinnest roster Bill's ever had. I mean, the 2017-18 team wasn't very deep, but you at least had guys coming off the bench, like Marcus Garrett was coming off the bench, right? You had at the end Silvio De Sosa coming off the bench.

Starting point is 00:10:34 Like that's kind of better than what Kansas has now. The 2011-2012 team, right? That one didn't have very much depth off the bench. Justin Wesley, who was like a transfer from Lamar, was playing for you. But I don't know if that's that much different than you playing Parker Brown. And that one at least had a little bit more trust off the bench. Justin Wesley, who was like a transfer from Lamar, was playing for you, but I don't know that that's that much different than you playing Parker Brown. That one at least had a little bit more trust off the bench and a little bit more production than this one did. I don't know. I think there's a lot of things you can point to that if we were to get into this discussion, is this the worst team in Bill Self's history at KU? I think it would probably

Starting point is 00:11:02 come down to the 2019 team, the 2021 team, and this team. Maybe if you wanted, you could lob that 05 team in there because that team lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament and they weren't ranked super highly on Ken Palm, but that team was 20 and one at one point and had a lot of young, talented players on the roster. I wouldn't put that one in there. I think based on the numbers above, this one is not the worst. It's clear to me the 2021 team and the 2019 team were just as bad or worse. Though, again, I think if you do take out the injury stuff and some of the sickness stuff that finished out the year for the 2021 team, I would probably go with the 2019 team as the worst one.

Starting point is 00:11:43 I think this one's still better than that one. And, you know, to point to the conference record, you could say, well, at least that one had a better conference record than this one did. And that is fair. But I do think the league is deeper and even tougher this year than it was five years ago. The schedule is tougher for KU this year than it was five years ago. KU wasn't as healthy this year. Still, though, if I'm having to be picky about it, this is one of the bottom

Starting point is 00:12:06 three Bill Self teams, though. I mean, that's for sure right now. This is the bottom three teams. The good news is you still got a couple weeks to erase that. You still have March. You still have the NCAA tournament to wipe all that taste out of your mouth. We see programs do that all the time in a given year. Maybe this is one of those years for Kansas because typically we don't really see that as much. So let's talk about what they have the opportunity to do in March and why there's still hope that they maybe could go on a run in the NCAA tournament. Some KU women's basketball after that on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. We are brought to you by Nissan. Are you the kind of driver that likes to push things a little further?

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Starting point is 00:13:22 and advanced available 4x4 capability with 284 horsepower and up to 6,000 pounds towing. When Adventure calls, the Pathfinder is there to answer. Take the Nissan Rogue, Nissan Pathfinder, or Nissan Armada and go find your next big adventure. Shop NissanUSA.com. So reasons why this team, even though they so far to this point and through the regular season are probably a bottom three team that Bill Self has had in his time at KU, I think maybe set up a little bit better than some of those teams. Maybe if you're ranking, you know, who's the

Starting point is 00:13:58 fourth worst, who's the fifth worst, who's the sixth worst team that they've had in their time where because I do think if this team ends up making let's say they get a three seed in the ncaa tournament and make it to the sweet 16 you know maybe we'll look back on this in five years and be like yeah that wasn't a great team but i don't know three seed making the sweet 16 like like i i think back to that uh tennessee team with like grant williams and admiral scofield and and stuff and maybe this is a bad example because rick barnes hasn't been, you know, the shining example of like NCAA tournament success.

Starting point is 00:14:28 But that team was like a two or a three seed that made the Sweet 16. And I just remember that was like a program-defining team for that Tennessee program, and that's what they did. And what I just described, it would feel like a down year, and maybe that's fair because that's the, you know, bar. You're at a different expectation level when you're Blue Blood and when you're kansas and when you're trying to hang up at national title banner that it's more than that you're trying to hang final four banners and conference championship banners and everything so i do get it it's different i just wonder if that

Starting point is 00:14:55 would take away some of the stink of what i guess has kind of happened here over the course of conference play um the other thing if kevin is getting healthy which it seems like the proof's in the pudding that he is because he played in the Baylor game. And that is obviously a knock in the right direction that, you know, yes, Kansas has not had the best conference play. And I'm already going to hate that I'm about to say what I'm about to say because there are so many other things that are not close between these two. But last year, let's not forget, Connecticut won the national title. They were the four seed in the one region. were they under seeded yes absolutely they were because um they were like top five something like that in Ken Palm coming into the tournament

Starting point is 00:15:36 to where like it was like okay this is one of the better teams in the country now that said they did go 13 and 7 in conference play uh one one point, they were 8-7. Kansas is 9-7 in conference play. So, like, there are some – and that UConn team was dominant in the non-con. They went 14-0 in non-con, and then they ran through the NCAA tournament. If you include the conference tournament, they were basically 14-8 in Big East play. Could something like that happen with Kansas where they get out of Big 12 play

Starting point is 00:16:03 where it's a tough schedule, and we saw them play really well in the non-con and things start clicking, they get healthy again, and they make a run to an Elite Eight? No, that's not unthinkable at all. So I will say that. I will say too, Hunter Dickinson has had success in the NCAA tournament. You go back to his freshman year, goes all the way to the Elite Eight and ran into kind of a buzzsaw on that UCLA team, which was a very close loss. They easily could have gone to the Final Four. The next year, they get in as like an 11 seed and weren't expected to do a ton, but he kind of carried them to the Sweet 16,

Starting point is 00:16:34 where they eventually lost to the Villanova team that Kansas beat in the Final Four later on. So he's had some tournament success. He showed up in those big moments, and I think that is important. Also, the lack of depth. It will still matter. I still believe that you don't need to be a deep team,

Starting point is 00:16:49 but you do need to have at least a guy or two off the bench you can trust, and maybe that just isn't in the cards for KU, though you would hope you're a little closer to where you are now with Timberlake and Marco than you were maybe a couple weeks ago. But the lack of depth does matter a bit less in the NCAA tournaments. That's nice. It also feels like KU is kind of due for a second weekend run with a self team that's not that good.

Starting point is 00:17:12 You know, I feel like we get a lot of times the Bill Self teams, and this isn't always true, but the best Bill Self regular season teams tend to be the ones that, you know, at least make like the Elite Eight or something, right? Exceptions of the rule, obviously, you think like the 2010 team who was unbelievable, loses two regular season games, and they lose in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Sure. But you think of all the ones who are on this lower end of the spectrum, where when you're listing the teams that are like, these are the worst teams that we've watched at KU and Bill's time at Kansas. Maybe this is a bit of confirmation bias in the sense of, well, the ones that lose early in the tournament, we're going to tend to lump into that category. So maybe it's a chicken and

Starting point is 00:17:52 the egg type of thing. But I think back and I'm like, you know, even the entire way through that 2018, 2019 season, people were having questions about how good is this team? Same with that 2020 to 2021 season, there there's so much turmoil and you lose the big 12 and like when those things happen those teams have lost in the second round that it has been reflective of your regular season the postseason and you look at a lot of other coaches across the country some of the best coaches in the country I mean you think like Tom Izzo and John Calipari's had some years like this like I think they made the final four is like a four seed Rick Pitino and he this. I think they made the Final Four as a four-seed. Rick Pitino, when he was at Louisville,

Starting point is 00:18:26 they made the Final Four one year as a four-seed before they lost to Kentucky in 2012, who beat Kansas in the title game. There have been a lot of other coaches who have had a year where, yeah, maybe it's not their best regular season team, but they get hot in March. And maybe you would point to that first year with Bill Self when they were a four-seed and made to the Elite Eight.

Starting point is 00:18:44 Maybe you would point to even just two years ago when they won the title and the bracket broke up and opened to them. And even though that was one seed and say, OK, that's kind of the same idea, though. But I do think it's interesting that that happens for a lot of like historic coaches that usually it's like it's going to balance out because the tournament is so weird that some years you're going to be a one or two seed and lose on something crazy in the second round of the Sweet 16. And then you might have another year where it balances out, where maybe you had a team that's not as good and was a four seed, but they make it to the final four or something like that. And I don't know that we've seen that really, at least of late with Bill Self. And I don't know, there's no like statistics to back this up. And it's almost like a they're due, you know, they're due for something like that to happen. I don't know. Just, just kind of a thought. I will say too, there's some interesting

Starting point is 00:19:27 comps from Bart Torvik's website, which you can go on Bart Torvik's website. And for what it's worth, Bart Torvik's website actually likes Kansas a little bit more than Ken Palm's website. I know some of the formula and metrics is a little bit different in how they do them. It kind of takes into account, like if you're in control of the game or like the last couple of minutes of the game, if it's a blowout, like it's not going to count those like the net would or like Ken Palm would or anything. But when you look at the, you can look at similar resumes and similar profiles. So you can see teams that would compare to your team's resume, like who you beat, ranking of wins, power of wins, all that sort of stuff. And some of the other teams that compare for the resume one, 2019 Kansas lost in the second

Starting point is 00:20:11 round, 2023 Baylor, which lost in the second round. You had 2012 Indiana, which that one made the Sweet 16, 2012 Michigan lost in the first round, 2011 Syracuse lost in the second round, 2017 Baylor in the Sweet 16. The best one on this list, 2014, Michigan State made the Elite Eight. So, you know, there's a lot of teams that lost in the second round on that one. But what's interesting, if you do the comparison on Bart Torvik's site of efficiency profiles, this one, you know, finds teams with most similar profiles in terms of adjusted offense efficiency, defensive efficiency, tempo, stuff like that.

Starting point is 00:20:45 The closest one to this team was actually 08 Gonzaga, which lost in the first round. Gosh, that might have been they lost to Steph Curry, I think, in the first round. But the second closest comp, I found this very interesting, was 2012 Kansas. Obviously, we went to the national title game. Now, that team had just an innate ability that I don't think you really could describe on some of the metric stuff to grind out games. And there was some level of mental and physical toughness in that team.

Starting point is 00:21:13 I don't know that this one has. That team was so unbelievable making other teams play bad. We hear Bill Self mention that all the time. Again, I don't know that this team has that, but I do think there are, as much as we have made the comps 2018-19, if this team does go on a deep run in March, I think you can probably point to some comparisons there.

Starting point is 00:21:31 You could say, okay, that team played two big men, right? And there were certain matchups, like when they played Missouri, it was tough for them to defend, and they had to sometimes play T-Rob at the five in some of those Missouri matchups. Well, this team struggles when they play a pace and space team. And you have a all-American big man in Thomas Robinson. Well, I think T-Rob is better than Hunter Dickinson, you know, is, but still that's an all-American type big man that you have kind of leading the way there.

Starting point is 00:21:56 You know, you have that 2012 team, you know, you have a very thin bench that we kind of talked about, and that's what this one has. So there are some comps that you could have there. Maybe that's the optimistic way of viewing it, but I do still believe that I feel more optimistic. I feel like the ceiling continues to be higher on this team for the tournament than I felt about going like into the 2019 NCAA tournament, even though you can make the argument this one has been just as bad, if not worse, in the regular season. Let's finish up.

Starting point is 00:22:26 KU Women's Basketball scored another top 25 win. First, we were brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Get buckets with your first bet on FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Because right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet. That's $150 if your bet wins. Bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets, live same-game parlays, exclusive props, and more. You can get in on Kansas and the Kansas State game coming on Tuesday night.

Starting point is 00:22:55 Make your own parlay prop. We'll have a preview of the game coming up on Tuesday, so you can use some of that information and matchups to build whatever you want and get in on MLB action or golf, whatever tickles your fancy. Just visit FanDuel.com slash LockedOn and shoot your shot. FanDuel, official sportsbook partner of the NBA and the LockedOn Podcast Network. Finishing things up, KU women's basketball continues to be on an absolute roll. Over the weekend, they were able to defeat number 20 Oklahoma, 83-74.

Starting point is 00:23:30 And now we know they'll be playing this upcoming Friday at 530 in the Big 12 tournament. They will be the 7 seed in the Big 12. They're going to be playing the 10 seed BYU. They already beat twice as part of this kind of recent stretch where they've started to, I guess, play really well. And because, yeah, they lost at Oklahoma, and then it was five straight wins. Then they lost to Baylor, and now they've won three consecutive games. So in total, eight of their last nine games.

Starting point is 00:23:59 Oklahoma game was great. Tyana Jackson continued to be on a tear, 12 points, 15 rebounds. Holly Kersketer and Samaya Nichols, though, took over the game. 55 total points from those two players with Nichols and Kersketer on a combined 18 of 27 shooting. And now they sit at 18 and 11 on the season and 11 and 7 in Big 12 play. They're headed to the Big 12 tournament. And I would assume if you beat BYU, you should be in good shape

Starting point is 00:24:24 because then if you beat BYU, you're playing Texas in the second round, and even if you lose the Texas game, that won't be held against you. The one thing you have to avoid is losing this game to BYU because we saw how costly that was for Kansas last year. So coming into the weekend before the Oklahoma game, Kansas was listed as the last four in on ESPN's bracketology. They were listed as first four out on her hoop stats, and they were listed as a 10 seed on another site that I was scrolling through,

Starting point is 00:24:50 which means you get a quad one win over Oklahoma that probably bumps you up into being, you know, I wouldn't say safely in the field, but not in the last four in that you should just be in on your own merits. But we saw last year, Kansas and they're kind of playing game of the big 12 tournament got upset by TCU. They ended up being one of the teams out and went to the NIT. So avoid that BBY, you take care of business. And I think you'll like where you're feeling for selection Sunday

Starting point is 00:25:17 upcoming. I don't know if in this episode of locked on Jayhawks finder show anywhere. You get your podcast back tomorrow for a KUK state preview.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Is This The Worst Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Team of the Self Era + Why There's Still Hope in March

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