Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Jayhawks NEED to Get Jalon Daniels Rolling Again | Kansas Keys to Defeating Oklahoma State Cowboys

Starting point is 00:00:00 We got the keys for how Kansas can take down Oklahoma State and get back on their winning ways on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here, this is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making of your first listen every day. and thank you every day or is catching each in every episode of the show. We are free and available anywhere you get a podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe. And on today's edition, we're going to be breaking down the keys for Kansas to come away with the victory against Oklahoma State.

Starting point is 00:00:44 Get back on their winning race, ways, get the vibes right like they should be in Lawrence with the new football stadium. So we're going to break down what it's going to take for Kansas to win the game, how they can cover the spread, because it's a pretty large spread. We get into Fandual Friday later on. as well. And we're going to ignore players to watch for both Kansas and Oklahoma State. Let's start right here, though. How does Kansas win this game? How does Kansas win a game in which they are favored by three touchdowns, right? Like the automatic, the easy answer when you're

Starting point is 00:01:15 favored by a spread that is, you know, that large is usually just like just don't mess up, just don't screw up, don't have dumb turnovers, don't make stupid plays. But I don't know. It feels like with where the vibes are, even though Kansas is, you know, 24 and a half point favorites over on Fanduil, it doesn't feel like that's where the vibes are for this game. I think it more has to do with, you know, Oklahoma State and their record and everything like that. So I think Kansas wins this game. First of all, they have to take the game seriously. And I think that can come from a couple different avenues. It's the standpoint of like if losing your last two games by the score you did, including your rivalry game to Kansas State, when you felt like the moons were

Starting point is 00:01:55 lining up to finally beat them and then you get destroyed, if that has led to a, you know, breakdown for the team, if that has led to whether it's emotional or whatever, if that has led to some level of quit on the season, I'm not saying that's going to be the case, but I'm saying if it is, then that's where Oklahoma State comes in and gives you trouble and possibly wins this game, if your head is not in it, right? And so you have to take this game seriously, both from that standpoint of making sure that you can understand that, hey, we still have things in front of us. The good news for Kansas in that avenue is that last year they very easily could have quit on the season and they didn't. They ended up nearly making a bowl game after the bad

Starting point is 00:02:34 start and won all those ranked games in a row. That gives me hope to the idea that, you know, they're going to continue to, I don't know, chop wood, so to speak, on the rest of the season and try to get it done. But they do have to take it seriously. And then it is the other element of taking it seriously in terms of you can't walk into this game thinking, oh yeah we're going to roll them we're 24 and a half point favorites this is going to be easy and i would think the humbling of the last two games would certainly not allow you to have that mindset in this game but those are going to be important you can't overlook your opponent here also to win this game for kansas i think you have to kind of yeah avoid kind of an epic meltdown

Starting point is 00:03:10 with with turnovers and bad plays like i think back to when k u beat texas and got charlie strong fired back in the david baby era and that overtime win i want to say texas had like six turnovers in that game. I think Shane Bouchel through like four or five interceptions, including the one to Mike Lee in the overtime for KU. That would be the reverse footing because this Oklahoma State team is like as bad as those Kansas teams were. And when you look at it, that Texas team, I think went five and seven that year, which is kind of where people are projecting KU to be at this point. So like, that's the way they win the game. You have an ugly turnover game. And then I would say this.

Starting point is 00:03:47 And this is kind of tied in with that first thing. Jalen plays basketball. to the guy we were seeing in the first seven games of the season. Through the first seven games of the season, Jalen was one of the top 10, 15 quarterbacks in the country. Then that's just not me, you know, estimating. That's like if you look at at that point, you know, some of the different stats, EPA per play, yards per attempt, like total QBR, some of those numbers. Well, the K-State game was rough. The K-State game was ugly. The K-State game was bad. It was his worst game of the season and it came at the worst time of the year to have your worst game of the season. The question is if he can bounce back to normal, because if he bounces back to

Starting point is 00:04:24 normal against an overmatched Oklahoma State team, then it's, you should win the game. Like, it's hard for me to envision Jalen playing one of his good games and you losing this one when you are 24 and a half point favorites. But if this is, because if you remember back to 2024, the beginning of the season was rough for Jalen Daniels. And it felt like he kind of lost his confidence early in the season and then eventually was able to gain it back and start. playing well again, you just hope that the K-State game doesn't lead to, you know, not just losing the K-State game, but leads to you losing yourself in the future games. That'll be important.

Starting point is 00:05:00 But if he's back to normal, I think you like KU's chances to win. How do they cover the spread? That would basically involve Kansas, you know, obviously playing well overall because they're 24 and a half-point favorites. You really got to scoot. You really got to go if you want to cover the spread in this one. I think the first of all, like they can establish the run while preventing explosive runs the other way from Oklahoma State.

Starting point is 00:05:20 Oklahoma State is we kind of detailed on preview on yesterday's show and thank you to the everydayers we got that one. They've been able to hit some explosive run plays. And for the KU defense, they've given up too many explosive run plays so far this season. Well, if KU can limit those, and then if Kansas can establish the run, we haven't seen Kansas really be able to establish the run at all in recent games, really since the first quarter of the season. If you can do those things, that's how you,

Starting point is 00:05:48 go from, hey, we're up 21 in the third quarter to ending up winning by 35 because you're running the ball and you're doing so successfully and keeping drives alive and eventually, you know, moving into position to score points. KU needs to start getting sacks again. That's kind of a big picture thing they need to do to get back to bowl eligibility. But I think it would also be important to cover the spread if you want to limit the Oklahoma State offense because I do think Oklahoma State, you know, they're coming off a game in which they were just shut out versus Texas Tech.

Starting point is 00:06:14 They're going to feel like they were batting with the ring or they're going to feel like like they were batting with two rings on the bat, you know, in the warmup circle for the Texas Tech game compared to what they're facing with the KU defense. They're getting those donuts off the bat and they're going to be swinging fast and hard to the idea that like, hey, we can score some points in this one. KU's got to get the sacks going again. They don't have any in the last couple games. You got to start pressuring the quarterback again and bringing him down. And then I would say the last thing for KU covering the spread here, if the advantages and the game itself are similar to when Kansas played West Virginia

Starting point is 00:06:49 and Fresno State, where Oklahoma State on paper is actually worse than both of those teams, but KU was able to just kind of outmatch and dominate those teams. If those advantages are similar for KU in this one, then they should be able to cover the spread. And that is one thing where it's like, when Kansas has played lesser competition, they've made them look that way. And that certainly gave me hope earlier in the season because usually the best teams do that it hasn't carried over to the bigger games for KU though you know is there a world where

Starting point is 00:07:16 KU sweaks out the Cincinnati game and um maybe there's you know more confidence there who knows but like um if those things are still apparent and there for KU and they take this fully seriously that's i think how they cover the spread there let's get to our players to watch and then we'll finish up with a little fan duel Friday this is locked on Jayhawks today's today's episode of the show brought to you by Mazda, moving the game forward. For those who believe it's not just about playing time, it's about redefining it. These are the moments that do more than just put the points on the board. They move crowds, move culture, and they keep moving the game forward.

Starting point is 00:07:56 This week's moment that moved the game forward for KU. I know it didn't feel great at the end for KU, but it certainly felt great at the beginning for KU. When they did force, I think it was Jermaine Dye, who forced the fumble and the opening kick return for Kansas State. and then Kansas gets the ball to go down and score. At that moment, it was like, oh, my gosh, they're going to do this. They're doing things to K-State.

Starting point is 00:08:17 The K-State usually does to them. Well, we don't need to go back through what happened after that. But at that moment in time, there was a brief bit of happiness. When you follow what moves you, the unexpected is only the beginning. And just like there's more to every highlight, there's more to a Mazda vehicle. Mazda move and be moved. Thanks for joining us on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast.

Starting point is 00:08:41 podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And don't forget, you can check out our KU preview on yesterday's episode. We have a lot of KU basketball content coming at you this week, too. Unlocked on Jayhawks, and we'll have plenty more of both of those things coming up. So make sure you are subscribed here. Our players to watch for Kansas against Oklahoma State. Let's start with the home team, the Jayhawks here. And we're going to start with the quarterback.

Starting point is 00:09:06 That would be one Jalen Daniels. Now, I joke all the time that, like, you can pick the quarterback for players. players to watch for every team, every single game. And it's the easy cop-out pick to make. So I like to try to avoid it if I can because it's just so obvious. It's the most important position. But coming off his worst game of the season and now playing against a defense that has not been very good this season, KU needs Jalen to have a big game.

Starting point is 00:09:30 And Jalen needs to have a big game. I mean, the going back to the confidence thing, where's the confidence going to be at after the K-State game? You think that sideline shot you saw where Jailon's doing kind of the deep breeze. exercises. And I can't help but wonder, you know, what does that do to his confidence? Well, this is about the best time on your schedule after a loss like that to have this game. Doesn't mean Kansas is going to win. Doesn't mean they're going to cover the spread, right? We went over some of the reasons what maybe you would prevent that. But if you do your thing and

Starting point is 00:09:59 Jaylen plays his game, I think you're going to like the results in this one. And it's a good opportunity to kind of have that confidence slump buster in a way. The crazy thing for Jaylen is even after that bad game against Kansas State, he still ranks top 30. nationally in total QBR. So he had a stinker and a game before that he was getting sacked a billion times. He's still been a top 30 quarterback by that measure in college football. So I think he will bounce back. Maybe those things haven't always happened in big games, but this isn't a big game. So yeah, they need him to bounce back for sure. I've Daniel Hyshaw on there as well, going back to the idea that KU needs to establish the running game and start to do that better as

Starting point is 00:10:37 the season goes on. Kansas just hasn't been able to establish it. frequently. They've been more of a successful running team than an explosive running team. They're not getting in any explosive plays. They're kind of a team where it's like, if it's blocked for four yards, they'll run for four yards. If it's blocked for 10 yards, they'll run for four yards. If it's blocked for two yards, they'll run for two. Like, it's not a lot of explosives there. But Hyshaw had, even though his 67 rush yards against K State were his third most of the year, you could argue it was his best rushing game when you consider the moment, the opponent, and some of the numbers that went into those stats. Six missed

Starting point is 00:11:14 tackles force in that game. That is by far his most of the season. It was a solid yard after contact number, even despite the fact he was getting hit a bunch at the line or around the line of scrimmage. If he can continue to, you know, play like he has these last two games against Tech and K State, both in games that you ended up getting blown out, but maybe in this one it matters more. I'm looking for high shot. I have a big game. And then Lyrick Rawls is the last one for KU. Rawls on the defensive side is the same. safety for KU. He's had a good year for Kansas, though. The last few weeks, it's been a little bit of a drop off if you're looking at things like pro football focus grade, but a 68 overall

Starting point is 00:11:47 PFF grade this year, that's solid, 72 in coverage, that's good. He's got 50 tackles on the year, so really been able to come up and, you know, get some action there, five past deflections and interception. But what adds to the intrigue here, he's against his former team. And when Trey Lathen was playing against his former team, the KU linebacker, he had a big interception and big game overall against the mountain years. I'm looking for Lyric Rawls to do the same thing here. I think that he's been solid so far this year for KU and maybe a bit of a revenge factor of a revenge game for him in this one against the Cowboys. Our Oklahoma State players to watch, we're going to start things off with Wendell Gregory. Gregory is a defensive end. He's a Richard

Starting point is 00:12:27 freshman was at South Carolina last year, redshirted. And so far this year, 22 tackles, three sacks. So, you know, solid numbers there. He's got a 73.3 pro football focus grade. So that's good. and pass rush, and he's 26 total pressures. That's a really high number with 18 hurries. It felt like in all of the prime years with Mike Gundy, where they were winning big games, they would always have like a good quarterback, a stud running back, a stud receiver, and a stud pass rusher. And it feels like Wendell Gregory has a chance to develop into that for Oklahoma State.

Starting point is 00:12:58 He's already a good player. He's had five or more pressures in a game three times. So can KU limit him off the edge? Then you have Tripp White, another SEC transfer, former Ole Miss linebacker. He's got 25 tackles this year. Solid 68 PFF grade. Wasn't somebody who was playing as much earlier in the air. He's starting to play more now.

Starting point is 00:13:17 But where he's really interesting is if we go back to the idea of can KU establish the run, Trip White's been a really good run defender. He has a 77 run defense grade on pro football focus. And last week against Texas Tech, that was up to an 83. He tied his season high with 47 snaps against Texas Tech. So he's starting to play more. He's playing good football. And he represents a hurdle for K.

Starting point is 00:13:38 you to try to run the football against. And then the last one here is the Oklahoma State running back, Rodney Fields, who missed last game with an injury. But the game before that against Cincinnati, he had 163 yards. And he's just a freshman, 420 yards on 5.5 yards per carry this year. But again, didn't play in the opener, didn't play last week against Texas Tech.

Starting point is 00:14:03 He had 113 versus Tulsa. He's been kind of boom or bust, though. It's either the big games over 100 yards, or he's been under 50 in every game. So he's capable of kind of taken over a rushing attack in a game or having some big runs that they can maybe change the momentum of a game, which really amazing is he's averaging 3.7 yards after contact and has 11 runs of 10 or more yards, a very explosive runner that's only on 75 carries.

Starting point is 00:14:27 Like high shot of comp has six runs of 10 or more yards with 2.8 yards after contact. So Fields is a really good running back for Oklahoma State and certainly one to watch. And then our player matchups here. start at the corner position for Oklahoma State with Ledanyan Fields. You know, some of these players have been going with Oklahoma State are players that haven't been the mainstays all season long. Obviously, they've had injuries and stuff to deal with. But it's been players that are kind of coming on for them, maybe younger guys who are getting more playing time as the season goes on for them and taking advantage and getting better. And fields kind of continues that theme for

Starting point is 00:15:00 them a little bit. But it's Versa Manuel Henderson or whatever outside KU receiver, whether it's Levi-Wenz, Bryce and Cantor, whoever on the outside there, that given time. So far to this point, KU probably hasn't gotten as much out of whence and canty as they were hoping for out of the portal from that duo together. It feels like with Pickett and Henderson, it's been a little up and down with what you've gotten week to week. The overall has been solid on both those guys when they've both been healthy, but it doesn't feel like you've gotten everything together at the same point at time. And it does feel like things are a little bit more like, I don't know, it's not as well

Starting point is 00:15:32 rounded of a game as maybe last year's receiving core overall. But Fields has limited snaps this year, just 113. But again, he's playing all of those snaps except for one over the last four games for the Cowboys. So it's playing time starting to rise. And the reason why is he's playing well. So he's earning more and more player time. He's got an 80 pro football focus grade that also has an 80 coverage grade. And so far, he's allowed just seven targets, two catches, no touchdowns, one interception, and a pass breakup. So he's been really good and limited sample size. We'll see that continues to grow in this game, and he might be matched up with Henderson, who has over 500 receiving yards for KU this year. That on the other side of the ball, the Oklahoma State

Starting point is 00:16:15 offense against the Kansas defense, we have Jacoby Sanders. He is the right guard for Oklahoma State going up against those KU defensive tackles, which mostly on that side, like that would be the side that DJ Withers is on specifically for KU. But also, you know, sometimes you're working against the defensive end, which in that situation is where Justice Finkel, is right so um that's kind of an interesting matchup between those two and then as a guard you're sometimes getting to the second level of block and that's where those KU linebackers are so a lot of guys you can match up with here as a guard but Sanders is Oklahoma state's highest rated offensive lineman a 66.3 that's a solid number it hasn't been the best offensive line year so far for

Starting point is 00:16:55 Oklahoma state but what's interesting about Sanders is we get back to the idea of Kansas needs to get back to rushing the passer getting sacks on the quarterback well Sanders represents the best pass blocker for Oklahoma State. He has a 77 grade in pass blocking this year. He had an 89 grade in pass blocking a season before. Can the KU defensive tackles beat him? Because if they do, if you're taking out their biggest strength on the offensive line, what does that mean for the rest of your defensive line against their offensive line versus if they're able to win, you know, maybe that's the start of them being able to kind of hold KU and check and preventing a big game from Dean Miller, Leroy Harris, and, you know, some of these defensive tackle.

Starting point is 00:17:35 on the inside for KU, which, by the way, can we get a little more pass for our snaps from Dean Miller? I feel like he's playing outside linebacker too often. I don't know. That's just a little picking knit on that one there. Let's finish up on this episode of the show with a little fan duel Friday. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by DoorDash. It is almost the weekend. No, it's Friday. It is the weekend. Time to look back and crown this week's MVP on Who delivered, powered by DoorDash, just like you can win every Saturday with DoorDash Streaks, saving more every time you order, these players delivered when it mattered most.

Starting point is 00:18:11 Let's break it down. For Kansas, we're going to go with Blake Harold, had over a handful of tackles in this game. He was one of the few guys who was getting behind the line of scrimmage and at least getting close to breathing on Avery Johnson when that wasn't a very common thing for KU. And it just feels like Harold has really soared into this portion of the season. It really feels like he's picking up his play from what already was a very high-level playoff of last year for this kid that feels like you might have a future star in this young

Starting point is 00:18:38 sophomore defensive tackle who's already playing very well right now and this past week. And just like Blake Harold delivered for Kansas, DoorDash delivers your Saturdays. With DoorDash streaks, you save every Saturday you order, stack it up all season, and you could save up to $250, including $100 in DoorDash credits. Order this Saturday, keep the streak alive, fuel your game day, only with DoorDash. Terms apply, promo period, through November 18th. This episode of the show is also brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. We're about to have our Fandual Friday here on the show,

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Starting point is 00:19:51 with Fanduel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA and the Lockdown Podcast Network. Thanks for joining us on this episode of Lockdown, Jayhawks, you can find our show anywhere here, podcast, including on a YouTube page where you can like and subscribe. And a little fan dual Friday to finish off on your Friday here. We'll have a postcast after the game, by the way, for the KU Oklahoma State game with whatever happens. So the spread right now, at least at-time recording, is Kansas minus 24 and a half. That is so many points, man. Now, there's a very real world where they cover this.

Starting point is 00:20:31 and then some, right? We saw how they played against West Virginia and against Fresno State. When they overmatch a team and the other team can't run the ball on them and they don't have great quarterback play, which Oklahoma State is not, Kansas kind of dominated those games. If Oklahoma State can figure anything out in the passing game, you know, the secondary is a weakness for KU, right? So it's one of those things where it's like, you've seen the script earlier this season. And the things that bring Oklahoma State back into this are the emotional side, the coming off a rivalry loss. Like, where's KU's head going to be at coming into the game? Those are all going to be very fair questions.

Starting point is 00:21:08 So I would be avoiding the spread, honestly, like if anything, I don't know, the way that we've seen them play the last couple weeks, the way we've only seen put up, what, seven points in the second half over the last three weeks, I would probably be leaning Oklahoma State at the 24 and a half. Maybe though, knowing that with some of those second half, you know, struggles and, knowing that, see, this is the bet that I would do with Kansas. If Kansas is going to come out with their hair on fire and pissed off about how the last couple weeks have gone and, you know, he's going to play with that emotion and everything that you need to, you know, go out there and dominate this football game, wouldn't you think

Starting point is 00:21:45 they're going to start hot? So you can get Kansas minus six and a half on Fandual in the first quarter spread. That would be kind of interesting to me. the first half spread is Kansas minus 13 and a half. So, like, do you think they can be up 14 and a half? I would almost be tempted to do that over the 24 and a half because also, too, like think back to that Fresno State game where you just sat on it in the second half. So that would be interesting if you are a believer that Kansas is going to bounce back.

Starting point is 00:22:11 I would almost be looking at that more than the 24 and a half. The over under is 56 and a half in this one. And that basically means the implied score from Fandul would, oh gosh, be what? like 40 to 16, something like that. Yeah, I don't know. It's hard to pick an over under because, again, going back to some of those games with West Virginia and like Fresno State and if you were playing teams that didn't have a great passing game,

Starting point is 00:22:39 which again, Oklahoma State doesn't. KU tended to, you know, prevent them from scoring points and lean toward the under. Against the better passing games, it's more toward the over. So maybe to that standpoint, you would say the under, right? coming off kind of a shaky game again the low second half scoring for k u of late they've got 34 points in total over their last two games maybe the under is not the the worst play in the world for k u at this point in time i'll say this as of right now that i'm talking about this i don't see any player props on here but um i'll be interested to see like what the you know where is the receiving

Starting point is 00:23:15 props for k u because it feels like we haven't gotten a big game from receiver in a couple weeks and maybe you can get take advantage of that a little bit in in one of these and maybe Daniel Hyshaws would be a little bit lower because KU's been struggling running the football. So those would be ones that I'm kind of looking at here. But I'm definitely going to be watching this one with an observant eye because this is kind of the fork in the road for Kansas. Like it's not there at this point, your hand has been dealt with where you are. It's not where you want to be at four and four coming off a blowout loss to Kansas State. But it's the cars you were dealt.

Starting point is 00:23:50 It's where you are right now. and the question is going to kind of just be how do you respond how do you respond to adversity can you salvage this season can you make it to a bowl game um certainly you would think if if kansas is motivated from that standpoint they're going to crush them but you know if there is a little low as me coming off that case they loss then it might go the other way so going to be very interested to see how this one goes for the jhawks are that'll do for this episode of locked on jahawks you can find our show anywhere you get your podcast including on our youtube page or you can like and subscribe to the show see you next time with loj

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Jayhawks NEED to Get Jalon Daniels Rolling Again | Kansas Keys to Defeating Oklahoma State Cowboys

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