Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Jayhawks Portal Target: Alex Wilkins is a Mid-Major Star| Will Bill Self Make a Move for Kansas?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Alex Wilkins had a breakout performance in the NCAA tournament. 21 points against Yukon, nearly pulling the upset in the first round. Now he's in the portal. And it sounds like Kansas at least at some point has had some interest. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. How's it going? Derek Johnson here on today's episode of Lockdown, Jayhawks. We're going to be breaking down Alex Wilkins, his potential fit with K.

Starting point is 00:00:35 his scouting report, general information about a very interesting mid-major guard prospect that is in the transfer portal. Let's start right there. According to Trilly Donovan, Alabama was kind of leading this race, but he just, I think, had a Kentucky visit or is having a Kentucky visit. Sounds like there could be a KU visit, just kind of up in the air with some of that stuff. Who knows what happens with KU and having a visit with Leroy-Blyden, like if you're able to. to land him. Do you stop recruiting? Who knows, right? But Wilkins is a 6-foot-5, 175 pound, more of a point guard, but I guess you could say combo guard, who will be a sophomore in the 2026 to 2027 season. So he joined Furman out of high school, and I don't know how this kid wasn't recruited

Starting point is 00:01:22 to a power five because he's a six-five guard who's got a very, very strong game. He averaged like 18 points, 4.7 assists per game, albeit compared to almost four turnovers per game, but 46% from the floor 33% from 3, 82% at the free throw line. He was on the all-socon second team. And I will say that the Southern Conference has really been producing a lot of players up to the Power 5 level year-in and year-out and a lot of guys who have had a lot of success. But he had 12 games with 20 or more points. He had 30 or more twice. His season high was 34. That was in the So-Conn finals to help them defeat UNC Greensboro. Obviously, they ended up winning the So-Con Conference tournament and then went to the NCAA

Starting point is 00:02:03 tournament where they played Yukon in the first round is a 15 seed and they gave Yukon a scare. It was a game at halftime and really till the final, I don't know, four minutes of the game or so. And in that game, he was awesome, 21 points, four assists. He was eight of 15 shooting. He goes four of eight from three, an eventual 11 point loss to the team that ended up, you know, being the runner up in the national title game. So that's a really impressive performance that will certainly, you know, a good taste in people's mouth as you're heading to the office. season. Now, the thing that makes this difficult is the translation up. That was his only top 50 Ken Palm opponent that he played all year. It was only four games against Ken Palm top 100 opponents.

Starting point is 00:02:46 And he did have strong, you know, effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage numbers and stuff. But that obviously does lead to a huge question mark here. Now, the metrics, good, pretty good. Eighty third percentile in RAPM with an excellent offensive number, more of an above average defensive number, 61st percentile in wind shares per 40, 83rd percentile in PERR, and then 71st percent on, wins above replacement player. The on-off numbers maybe do it the most justice. They were excellent.

Starting point is 00:03:13 He was in the 90th percentile with a plus 14.4 on-off net rating, which overall Furman, like a majority of that was consisted of the offense. Furman was over 13 points better per 100 possessions when he was on the floor just on offense alone. So very impactful player there for the Paladins. And 24-7 sports has him as a top 50 player in the transfer portal, the athletic and on three. Both have him in the top 35. Evan Mia Cowell's rankings a little bit lower on him. It does have him inside, just inside the top 500, outside the top 400, so a little bit lower from that standpoint. But I found this blurb from the athletic really interesting on Wilkins. I'm not going to rule thing, but just, you know, a couple sentences from it. Real

Starting point is 00:03:59 case is the best mid-major freshman guard hitting the transfer portal, which obviously that would include Blyden, right? Real size, dynamic score and ball handler for a tournament team, terrific in ball screens, uses his pace and crafty handle, get pain touches while getting all the way to the rim. Jumper could use a little bit of work. This is a really good guard prospect, right? And this is one to me that feels definitely like a high major guard, one that has multiple years left too. It looks like one when you watch him has some intriguing traits. He has some intriguing stats. But I am also curious on the fit with this one. And obviously it seems like this is going to take a big salary to sign him. So is this one that makes more sense for somebody else than Kansas?

Starting point is 00:04:40 Let's break that all down or if that's not the case with more on his scouting report next. This episode is brought to you by Rocket Money. If you've ever opened your bank account and thought, where'd all my money go? You're not alone. Keeping track of subscriptions, spending, and bills can get overwhelming fast. That's where Rocket Money comes in. It helps you take control of your finances all in one place. Tracks your subscriptions in one spot. So you can help cancel the ones that you don't need with just a few taps.

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Starting point is 00:06:29 Terms and conditions apply need to hire. This is a job for indeed sponsored jobs. Thanks here for locked on Jayhawks. I'm scouting report for Alex Wilkins. Like this is a guy that I know I'm sure some people give this guy follow. Ryan Hammer does really good like college basketball work on social media and, you know, runs a college basketball like writer and stuff like that. It does good work.

Starting point is 00:06:53 He is of the camp that Wilkins. is the best available, you know, mid-major guard in the portal as well. So this guy who's seen very highly by a lot of people, he has very good size for a guard. You don't normally see a guard at six foot five, you know, at his level. Usually it's like, oh, you're at that level because maybe you're too small. And that's further of why I'm like, how did this kid end up at Furman? But he has very good body control. I think he has a very good kind of pace of play.

Starting point is 00:07:22 He's not, like, we'll get to the weaknesses. He's not the fastest or the quickest in the, world just has a very good idea and sense of play and pace of play and getting you on his hip and those sorts of things. And he uses that to really excel scoring at the rim. He is in the 90th percentile on frequency of rim attacks. He shot 62 percent on layups. That was good for 82 percent town nationally among guards. And you see him in his size on purpose. The way that when he drives in, he leans into the defender and then just almost like

Starting point is 00:07:56 shoots it over them with touch and it goes in on the rim, he knows he's taller than other guards. He knows that's an advantage. And he does such an adept job of absorbing contact and making shots, you know, through it in the lane because of that height and knowing what his strength isn't playing to it. And overall leads them having an 82nd percentile two point percentage. He's 75th percentile or at the rim in the paint and on midrange, according to CBB analytics. So just a monster inside the arc.

Starting point is 00:08:27 And he also gets the free throw line a lot too, 5.7 free throw attempts per 40 minutes. That is in the 85th percentile nationally. He also has a very high rate of assists. He'll be able to be a good passer and everything, right? And then the last big strength here is the potential because he is only going to be a sophomore this upcoming season. I mean, everyone's a free agent year to year, right? So I guess does it really matter because you're just going to have to re-recruit him next off season? But, you know, if you come in and things go well, it gives you the leg up to bring him back.

Starting point is 00:08:56 I don't know. Can you work two-year deals nowadays in the transfer portal? Like, could you make that work and say, hey, we're going to give you a two-year deal worth this much money and you incentive base it. Like, if you're all-conference, if you're all-American, we'll give you an extra this amount of money next year. And if you go pro, we'll let you out of the contract. I don't know if you can even do that, but, you know, that certainly wouldn't hurt, right? Now, some of the weaknesses here, I don't know that this is really a weakness, weakness. I just wouldn't call it a strength.

Starting point is 00:09:26 And that would be shooting. He was 31% from three, which, again, isn't terrible, but it's not a strength either, right? He did do it on high volume. He did do a good amount of it off the dribble. So really, he's probably better than that percentage shows. And he's going to get better at it. I say all the time, like players usually get better at shooting the longer. They stay in college, right?

Starting point is 00:09:47 But he also shot 29% on long mid-range twos, according to CBB shot charts, which would kind of imply that that three-point percentage is maybe more real than you think. So again, probably not a weakness, but it's definitely not a strength, right? And to that notion, combined with his 99th percentile usage rate, I do have questions about how he would play off the ball and be a fit at K. Now obviously, you know, if you come in, you're going to get to play. Like, I think the other guard that KU is looking to pair next to Taylin Kinney, they're still going to play some on the ball.

Starting point is 00:10:20 It's not like they're only going to be an off ball player. They'll play some on the ball. But it's not going to be 99th percentile. They have to play both. They have to be able to play on the ball and off the ball. And I have no questions that Wilkins, like Wilkins, I think, can be a very good on ball, high major guard. But can he be a good off ball high major guard?

Starting point is 00:10:37 I think that kind of remains to be seen, right? Because he was below average as a perimeter sniper and his two. most frequent play styles by far had the ball in his hands. It was running pick and roll and then just kind of getting downhill. He also was a very poor rebounder, which you would think a six five guard would turn those numbers up a little bit more. And he also turns it over a ton. You're getting a lot of assists, but you're getting a ton of turnovers. Again, 3.8 turnovers per game. He was just in the 16th percentile nationally with a below average assist to turnover ratio. He also doesn't really get just steals or blocks and not really known for being a great defender right now.

Starting point is 00:11:14 So when you look at it, very talented player that can do a lot of fun things and has a very high potential, he's not somebody who's going to help you win the possession game, right? Because he's not going to get rebounds. He's not going to get steals. He's going to turn the ball over, right? And I think some of those weaknesses can be chalked up that, again, he's not the fastest or quickest guard either. He is 6-5, which makes up for some of that stuff.

Starting point is 00:11:34 And he's not a bad, but he's not as shifty as, you know, say a blighton, for instance, or a Terrence Hale at VCU. So knowing all that, I think there's some really good positives to be like, he's a really talented player, just take him, you know? I think there's also some questions about fit. So what's our verdict next? We're brought to you by Ruggiet Reddy. The NHL playoffs are here where every shift matters, every moment's intense,

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Starting point is 00:12:59 It is locked on Jayhawks.supercast.com locked on Jayhawks.com. Locked on jahawks.com. So a very interesting one here with Wilkins because, again, you have good size, you have good potential. You have some really good skills. But also is it the best fit next to Taylin Kinney? right? I think if you bring in Wilkins, it has to be to be more of the on guard, right? And that becomes a question where it's like, is KU and Bill Self comfortable doing that,

Starting point is 00:13:28 where Kenny's playing more off ball? Maybe they would be, right? I think there'd be some defensive questions in the back court. I don't know that that would be a very good defensive back court. Also, you're questioning Wilkins jumping in competition. Now, Wilkins, would provide a lot of offense, and I care more about the offense from the guard position this year than I do the defense in this offseason. But then you're also like, okay, but what are some of the biggest offensive issues for KU? One of them is three-point shooting. Does he solve the three-point shooting? No. In fact, that'd be pretty worried because let's say your three-man is a low 30s percent three-point shooter. And if he's a low 30 percent three-point shooter, and if Dawes is a

Starting point is 00:14:10 low 30% three point shooter and who knows what you're getting from the five position. Do you just have a team of low 30% three point shooting? You know what I mean? Do you need somebody more elite shooting the three ball, right? Now, KU is running low on guard options, right? We'll see what happens with Leroyd-Blide in here. That would be the big one to try to hit on. I still love me some Terrence Hill.

Starting point is 00:14:27 Who knows what's going to happen there if he's going to pick a different school or whatever. If you do miss out on both of those guys, I think you do have to just kind of run into a situation of just take the most talented guy and try to, to make it work. And so this would be a take in that situation. But if you can get one of those other guys who are better fits for you, then you take those over this because there are some of the questions of fit and this is going to be an expensive addition. And I can't help but think that like, well, like again, I mentioned like Alabama, the potential leader. Alabama would be perfect for Wilkins. He can run up and down. He can be the primary initiator. He'll be an all SEC player

Starting point is 00:15:05 over there. But would he be the best fit for Bill Self? Maybe not quite as much. So, again, a player that if you get down to brass tax and you're just like, hey, we just need to take the best player available at this point. We've lost some other options. I would understand it. But I think there are better options out there for KU. We'll see if they can land them. All right. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks.

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Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Jayhawks Portal Target: Alex Wilkins is a Mid-Major Star| Will Bill Self Make a Move for Kansas?

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