Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Jayhawks Will Boast IMPROVED Pass Defense Despite Player Losses + Ranking Every Game by IMPORTANCE

Starting point is 00:00:00 Kobe Bryant and Mello Dodson are gone. They were studs at Kansas, but I'm going to tell you, despite some of the key losses in the secondary, why this Kansas past defense is actually going to be better than they were a season ago. You are Locked-on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks,

Starting point is 00:00:23 part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks to making it your first listen every day. And thank you to the everydayers catch in each and every episode of the show. We are free and available anywhere you podcast, that includes on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And on today's edition of LOJ, we're talking why this Jayhawks past defense could actually be improved from where it was a season ago, despite some of the key losses, players like Kobe Bryant and Melodottson, who are highly decorated, awesome players at the University of Kansas.

Starting point is 00:01:00 but we're going to tell you why some of the parts might actually make it better for this year for KU. We're also going to get into the most important games for KU football this season and rank all 12 of their games by importance on this season. Today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by Game Time. Just download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code Locked on College for $20 off your first purchase with Game Time. Okay, let's start right there. So why I think the Kansas football past defense is actually going to be better in 2025 than it was in 2024. And it does sound insane when you're talking about it because you look at last year's roster.

Starting point is 00:01:41 If you're just looking at this from a personnel perspective, you say, oh, we have Kobe Bryant, who's a three-time first-team all-big 12 performer at Kansas. We have Mellow Dotson, who's a multi-time all-big 12 performer. And both those players, you know, garnered some national recognition throughout their time at Kansas as well. If you want to extend past the corner position, you're talking about it safety, having Marvin Grant, who was what, like a five-year starter at the college level, three years at Kansas. You're talking about OJ. Burroughs who was like a three-year starter and a four-year player for Kansas at the other safety spot, right? You're talking about guys who were backups on last year's team, who were rotational players for last year's team who are now maybe going to be playing bigger roles on this year's team. So from a personnel perspective, you look at all that and you say, oh, you lost all those key players.

Starting point is 00:02:26 you lost all that experience in the secondary, how are you going to be better than where you were a season before? And I want to make this clear. I'm not saying that this team is going to have more talent in the back end. I know we just did our episode talking about more talent overall for the Kansas team. I don't know that they're more talented on the back end, although maybe they do end up being similarly talented because they've recruited the corner position especially very well for Kansas. But from an individual player accolade perspective, like no, they're not going to match where. last year's team was. But I think the production, the overall output for the KU past defense will be better because despite having some of those key players, the KU past defense was not,

Starting point is 00:03:08 it wasn't a strength on last year's team statistically, right? And I don't think that was because, like, if you look at it statistically, if you look at the coverage numbers that Kobe Bryant and Mellodotson had, they had good seasons at Kansas. So you look at those things and you're like, wait, if they had good coverage seasons, why was the past defense so bad? Well, Turns out there's more than just two guys going out on routes, you know? And the reason why I think it's going to be better this year is threefold. The scheme, D.K. McDonald's, and a stronger front seven. So when you're talking about the scheme, I think you're talking about them being more multiple. With D.K. McDonald, you're talking about having a different play caller, which that also kind of goes into the scheme because he brings that along with them. And then with the stronger front seven, that helps in a myriad of different ways. We'll get into all those in a second here. But think about this, as loaded as Kansas was with experience and with talent in that DB room a season ago, specifically at the corner position, Kansas finished 10015th nationally

Starting point is 00:04:10 in quarterback rating against in 2024. In 2023, they were 73rd in quarterback rating against. In 2022, they were 105th. And in 2021, they were 129th of 130 teams. So during the Brian Borland era at Kansas, Kansas, Kansas is, average finishing rank of quarterback rating against was 105.5 in the country. Coverage scheme, play calling, pass rush, all of that stuff, linebacker coverage. All of that stuff matters a ton in past coverage.

Starting point is 00:04:47 It's not just about do you have stud corners. Kansas had stud corners. And over those four years with Brian Borland, you still averaged outside of the top 100 in quarterback rating against. Now, when you look at D.K. McDonald at Iowa State, when he was the passing game coordinator and quarterback for a little bit and then safety's coach at Iowa from 2016 to 2020, they finished 93rd, 1002nd, 66th, and 58th in those five years, which the average outcome there is 77th in quarterback rating yet. So he was at Iowa State when they were kind of still on the come up, but that's still a big improvement from where Kansas is now. what if we look at yards per pass attempt allowed if you look at yards per attempt allowed on the defense event kansas was 110th last season they were 70th in the country in 2023 they were 113

Starting point is 00:05:35 in the country in 22 and they were 124th in the country in 2021 that's a four-year run where kansas averaged out being 104th in the country in yards per pass allowed then you look at iowa state when d k mcdonnell was there for the five years there were 74th in 2020 38th in 2019, 44th in 2018, 71st in 2017, and 72nd in 2016. That's an average five-year run of 60th. So Kansas, 104th, when DeK. McDonald was at Iowa State, and again, those are the early years of Iowa State when they're still getting things going. 60th is the average.

Starting point is 00:06:10 You can see a big difference, a big gap in terms of what was done there between those two programs. And that also shows the Kansas' best season there, 2023, when they finished 70th in yards per attempt allowed per play. The worst seasons for McDonald when he was at Iowa State were 71st, 72nd, 74. So basically the best seasons that KU had, the best season that KU had under Brian Borland as a past defense was equivalent to the worst season that Iowa State was having when D.K. McDonald's there kind of coaching the D.Bs. That's why I think the floor gets raised with D.K. McDonald, a defensive coordinator.

Starting point is 00:06:49 But again, back to those three things, the scheme being more multiple. And this is part of D.K. McDonald's, right? I think they're going to play more of the 4-25 this year where that's going to help you in general against past coverage. If you have an extra DB out there as opposed to having another linebacker, that's going to help you in past coverage. If we're talking about them being multiple, though, and also giving maybe there's going to be some three-down looks, maybe there's going to be even some looks where, you know, it's one linebacker, a safety in a corner. I think T.K. McDonald's going to get creative with it. And that is going to keep opposing quarterbacks on their toes. It's going to make it tougher to read defense.

Starting point is 00:07:22 and it's just going to make KU more complicated and, I don't know, like, I think he's talked about wanting to simplify things. I think he probably wants to simplify things maybe from a play perspective. Like maybe they're not going to be running these exotic blitzes of, okay, like, then we see Steve Spagnola run for the Kansas City Chiefs. Like maybe it's not going to be that, but maybe it will be complicated from a formation perspective. And that'll keep teams guessing in kind of a different way. So I think that's going to help in addition to having maybe the extra DB out there. I think having him as a play caller is certainly going to help. It certainly felt like there were too many times, despite the fact, like, okay,

Starting point is 00:07:59 if you don't have the best corners in the world, then I think the way Kansas played defense over some of these recent years where the corners were at times five, 10 yards off the ball, it makes a little bit more sense. The fact that Kansas had Kobe Bryant and Mellow Dotson was playing that way and was not playing, you know, challenge man coverage, I thought at times was a little bit silly. I'm not saying you want to do that every play,

Starting point is 00:08:21 but I thought they should have done it a little bit more. Maybe you get that a little bit more at D.K. McDonald. Maybe you get a little bit more blitzing with D.K. McDonald. That's something that Kansas was never like under Brian Borland, like a huge blitz team. They started to pick it up a little more over the back half of last year, but that was never a big thing. So maybe that helps too. And then the other thing that I think is going to help them be a better past defense.

Starting point is 00:08:39 Past defense isn't just about the guys covering. It's about the guys going to get the quarterback. If you can get to the quarterback quicker or you can pressure the quarterback, it's going to make it harder to complete the passes to the receivers. And so I think Kansas has, I mean, I don't know that Kansas, I don't think Kansas is going to have an Austin Booker or a Lonnie Phelps in terms of that just elite pass rusher that KU has on the outside. But maybe, you know, if you're talking, I don't know, if you're talking like the top five or six defensive tackles, you're talking about the top three, four, five defensive ends, this could be the best like one through 10 if you viewed it that way, one through 10 defensive line, you know, of your top 10 bodies on the defensive line that KU has had under Lance Leipold, the best over. all depth there. So that's got to be account for something. We've talked about this could be

Starting point is 00:09:24 the best line backing court that KU has had during the Lance Leipold era. Okay, that's going to make your front seven better, which is A, going to give you a better pass rush. B, it's going to put you in more third and longs, which is inherently going to help you as a pass coverage unit because it's more predictable that you're going against pass. You can dial up one of those exotic blitzes. You can dial up crazy formations. You can bring an extra DB out there because you're not expecting the run. There are different things that you can do by being in those third and longs more often. And if you have better coverage linebackers, which it seems like they have athletic linebackers, that's going to help too. So despite some of those key losses, I don't think they are going to have as good of a player standing in for Kobe Ryan or Mello Dots.

Starting point is 00:10:03 And at least not now, like maybe Jalen Dodd eventually develops into that. Maybe in Austin, Alexander, develops into being a better player down the road. But just from an overall, with everything coming into it, I think Kansas is going to actually have better past defense numbers this year than they did a season ago. All right. We're going to rank every game in 2025 by importance. We'll get to that next. This episode of Lockdown Jayhawks is brought to you by Game Time. We've all been there, logging on early, waiting forever for tickets to go on sale, then you'll lose out to something you've been dying to see. Well, Game Time makes getting tickets faster and easier than ever. Price is actually drop. The closer gets to kickoff, first pitch, showtime, whatever you're going to.

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Starting point is 00:11:40 Last minute tickets, lowest price, guaranteed. Thanks for joining us on Locked on Jayhawks. Don't forget to make Lockdown College Football or Locked on College Basketball or second listen every day. And you can catch us here on YouTube or anywhere you get your podcasts. So we're going to rank every game by importance for KU football here from 12 down to number one. And this is just importance. We're going to start with number 12. That would be the Wagner game.

Starting point is 00:12:06 That's the second game for KU. It's technically week one of the college football season. And you could argue that like, it's funny. you could argue any FCS game should be higher on a list because the loss is almost worth more than the win. But, you know, I don't know, if you're approaching this and how important any of the games are, and if you're approaching this from a standpoint of like, what's the, well, the worst case scenario is you lost to an FCS thing. I don't want to approach things from the worst case scenario. That's, that's not a fun way of thinking. And that's, you know, that's like,

Starting point is 00:12:36 oh, are you thinking in baseball terms? And you're like, well, you need to sacrifice the runner over to left field. And you're like, well, what if he strikes out? Okay, well, then you're just screwed like why we think in the worst case scenario like you know it doesn't matter okay number 11 on most important i don't need to really get into why the wagner one is number 12 number 11 on the most important is the at arizona game so i do think arizona is going to be a little bit better than they were last season right there were four and eight last season they lost a lot of games by a lot of points i think that when you look at arizona they should be a little bit better in some areas you're going on the road if they are a bowl team going on the road to a bowl team like that's not an easy game so

Starting point is 00:13:14 this isn't me saying the easiest game and me saying what are the most important here's the deal though from a kansas perspective now obviously it's a different equation if you're talking about can you get to 10 and 2 can you can you win the big 12 then every game has maximum importance because your margin of error is so thin that like you can't really say okay this game is more important whatever but the arizona game a little bit lower because they are predicted one of the worst teams in the big 12th. It's right before you have a buy week. And it's not like a rival or anything like that. And you're like chances are you're going to drop some road games this year. That's just what happens in the big 12 when these teams are close together and you're playing on the

Starting point is 00:13:52 road. So that's number 11. Number 10 on the list is at UCF. I think this one is important knowing that you're at Texas Tech the following game and Texas Tech could be one of the better teams in the big 12. Certainly they're one of the most talented and you want to avoid a losing streak. So winning this game would prevent that from happening. But again, there's no rivalry ties or anything like that. And like, it's almost more expected if you're to lose on the road than you are at home. And into that perspective, it's like, okay, the games that are at home become more important because you have to take care of those home games if you want to accomplish what you want

Starting point is 00:14:23 to accomplish. Number nine on the list is versus Cincinnati. So going back to the take care of home field, you know, from a, you know, new teams of the Big 12 of UCF in Cincinnati, there's not much rivalry or hate there or anything like that. I don't know. Maybe there's some hate from the Cincinnati side. just from Kansas relation to the Kansas City Chiefs. But like, outside of that, it's like, okay, well, this is the home one.

Starting point is 00:14:44 And I think Cincinnati is going to be a little bit better than UCF. So that's why that one is a little bit higher on the list. Number eight on the importance list is at Texas Tech. If you're talking about what are the hardest games for KU, at Texas Tech is certainly one of the five hardest. Probably, but maybe it'd be a little higher than that. I don't know. It'd certainly be one of the five hardest. We'll wait and see what the end of the year.

Starting point is 00:15:03 But from an importance perspective, if Kansas loses at Lubbock to what ends up being a good team in a place that Kansas has traditionally struggled to play, it's not going to be a huge thing that gets held against them or is going to like, if you're viewing this from a perspective of can Kansas go over on their win total, can they win eight games or can they at least make a bowl game? You never know, right? We look at last year and they went five and seven and you can point to five different games where if this or that happens, they make a bowl game. game. But realistically, for you to make a bowl game, you shouldn't have to win at Texas Tech, I guess is my point. Like, hopefully you do. It'd be great if you do. But if you do lose that game, that's going to be one of those where it's like a little bit more expected to lose that game. You should still be able to overcome that and make a bowl game. So that's why it's a little further despite it being one that would certainly be an awesome win for KU. And then number seven on the list

Starting point is 00:15:58 of the most important games for KU is versus Oklahoma State. So this is another one where you gotta take care of your home field. It's also a little bit later in the season, in the back half of the season. And I think what specifically makes this one interesting is it's right after the K State game. Can you follow up the Kansas State game? And that could go either way.

Starting point is 00:16:16 Either you're coming off a loss against Kansas State in which you've got to get yourself off the mat and be able to respond from that, or it is coming off a win over Kansas State, ideally, hopefully, right, to where then you have to get off the mat in a different way. You have to get off the hangover mat from that one of like, you know, you had this awesome win, you haven't beat them in so long, it would be very easy to kind of have a let down the following game against Oklahoma State. And Oklahoma State is a very

Starting point is 00:16:42 interesting game because to me, they're a huge enigma. How good are they going to be? Are they going to be four and eight? Are they going to be nine and three, which we've seen so many years with Mike Gundy, right? Anything is in the world of possibility there. So that one becomes, I think, very interesting too, especially too. If Oklahoma State is really good, then maybe that one raises in terms of the level of importance. All right, let's get to the top half, the top six games for the most important games for KU on the schedule. This is Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:17:14 Continuing on here on Locked on Jayhawks, the most important games for KU football on their 2025 schedule. And again, don't forget, you can check out Locked on College football or Locked on College basketball for your second listen every day. Okay, number six on the list,

Starting point is 00:17:29 I do have the Fresno State game. Now, you would think, why is Fresno State? Why is that behind some Big 12 games? The conference games are the ones that count if you're talking about Big 12 title. And yes, if you tell me that at the end of the year, they're going to be in the Big 12 title race, then yes, I would sink this Fresno State one. As of right now, I'm more so just approaching it from, yeah, can you be like an eight-win team around where the over-under is? And from that perspective, yeah, you really need to beat Fresno State, right? If we look back to last year, you go five and seven. And like I said, you can point to five or six different games and say that's the difference why they didn't make a bowl. But certainly the UNLV game, you can just point to that and say,

Starting point is 00:18:04 hey, if you would have beat your Mountain West opponent in the non-conference, you would have made a bowl game. Also, probably wouldn't have hurt from a early season momentum and confidence of the team perspective if they would have won that game against UNLV. So don't repeat that this year against Fresno State. What adds, I think, to importance of this one, beyond setting the tone for the season, is the new stadium, it being the opener.

Starting point is 00:18:26 You have an opportunity to, I don't know, create a new, legacy seems a little bit strong, but like, start something new at Kansas, make this a place of winning. And it's not just setting the tone for the season, it's setting the tone for the new stadium. And so the game becomes very important from that perspective, as well as if you lose the game, you might start being, you might start getting yourself to like, okay, is this team going to be able to scrap to make it a bowl game versus if you win the game, it's like, okay, all our dreams are still on. Like, we think we're, we can still win all these games. Okay, number five on most importance is at Iowa State.

Starting point is 00:19:03 Now, again, you could argue this one should be higher. And if you're talking most difficult games for KU, like Texas Tech, this one would be higher in that regard. Because Iowa State could be pretty good. It's on the road. It's senior day for Iowa State. But again, going back to the idea of like, it would make sense if you lost a game on the road to a good team, especially when they're celebrating senior day, like this one is at Iowa State. You've beat them three straight times. This one would make a little bit more sense.

Starting point is 00:19:31 So from a perspective of which games are most important to win, you'd love to win it. It would be a phenomenal win on the season. It certainly would. But that's why it's only in at number five. Number four on the list is versus West Virginia. And it's funny, again, because if you told me like, okay, you can pick, I probably would take the at Iowa State win over beating West Virginia at home. But it's how these things are connected.

Starting point is 00:19:54 And going back to setting the tone and creating that confidence and energy, West Virginia is your big 12 opener. You would love to start on the right foot against West Virginia. In fact, we saw last year, right? Kansas played at West Virginia to open Big 12 play for them a season ago, and they lost the game. They lost the game in kind of losing it late, blowing it, whatever you want to call it. And that kind of set the tone for the first half of the season and for the start of Big 12 play. You know, you have an opportunity to kind of reverse that here.

Starting point is 00:20:23 It's also important because it comes off a buy. You know, you only get three games this year where you're coming off a buy. Take advantage of those games. games. It's also another home game. Take advantage of your home games. You can hit the ding on that yet again. The game before West Virginia, the game right before the buy, you're at Missouri, which is going to be a very difficult game for KU to play. Ideally, Kansas beats Missouri. But if Kansas does lose to Missouri, this would also represent an opportunity against West Virginia to avoid having that early season losing streak, which you so desperately want to avoid early in the

Starting point is 00:20:55 year to again set the tone and keep the confidence high for later in the year. All right. Number three, on the most important games for KU is versus Utah. Utah is, I think, going to be a much better team this year. They have two guys who are being seen as first-round draft picks on the offensive line. They have a rushing dual-threat quarterback. They still had one of the best defenses in the conference in the country last year. So I think they're going to at least get like an eight-win team this year, if not contend, for a big 12th title. So they could be pretty good. And that'll make it a difficult game for KU. Beyond that, it is senior day for KU. So maybe from that perspective,

Starting point is 00:21:27 you will put it higher because you want to send the seniors off right. guys like Jalen Daniels, going off on a final limb. And if you do end up being a big 12th title contender, maybe you do move this one up. It's hard to. You know the two that are left on the list, and those are rivalry games. So it would be hard to kind of jump over those. But from that perspective, this could be a team in your way if you do end up in that situation. Number two on the list, though, is at Missouri.

Starting point is 00:21:51 Missouri's KU's biggest rival. So if you wanted to argue at number one, I would have no qualms with doing that. And certainly it being the first game that you've played them since they were in the big 12 adds even more importance because there's been such a long layoff. At the same point in time, it does make it, does it make it that there's a little less hatred, at least for the first one? I don't know. We'll wait and see.

Starting point is 00:22:12 I doubt the players will feel that when they go to Columbia there. But I have Kansas State number one. And I talked about this on a previous episode. Thank you every day, or if you already caught it. But the reason I have the Kansas State one ahead of Missouri, we know why they're both one and two. No reason I edge out the Kansas State one over the Missouri one. You've lost 16 straight to Kansas State. You play Kansas State in the conference every year.

Starting point is 00:22:32 You need to end the Kansas State streak. You'll get Missouri coming to Lawrence next year. Again, hopefully, you know, ideally you win in Colombia anyway. But with Kansas State, the streak needs to end now. It's been too long. And especially how the last two years have gone. You need to reverse your fortunes this year. Like that needs to be a thing that happens for KU this year.

Starting point is 00:22:52 So Kansas State 1, Missouri 2, Utah 3, West Virginia, 4, Iowa State 5, Fresno State 6, Oklahoma State 7, Texas. Tech 8, Cincinnati 9, UCF 10, Arizona 11, and Wagner 12, most important games in that order for KU football this season. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And we'll see you next time on another edition of LOJ.

Starting point is 00:23:18 We're going to be talking a little KU basketball off guard preview with Paul Rosario, Jaden Dawson, and the likes. We'll also be breaking down the quarterback room for KU football in that episode. So make sure subscribe to the show. on our YouTube page and anywhere in your audio podcast. See you then.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Jayhawks Will Boast IMPROVED Pass Defense Despite Player Losses + Ranking Every Game by IMPORTANCE

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