Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Faces SEASON-DEFINING TEST vs UCF | Jayhawks & Lance Leipold vs Knights & Scott Frost PREVIEW

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's make or break time for KU. They want to be a bowl team. They want to accomplish big things. You got to win a game like this at UCF. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here.

Starting point is 00:00:27 This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first. listen every day and thank you to the everydayers catching each in every episode of the show. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And on today's edition, we get to our full preview of Kansas versus UCF, why this one is so important for Kansas if they want to make it into a bowl game. We get to the injury news from the two teams, the UCF scouting report and our matchups

Starting point is 00:00:54 that will determine who comes out on top in this road game for KU. of today's episode of the show is brought to you by Mazda. Like our players, we sweat every detail because when you make every move count, pulling off the unexpected is only the beginning. Stay tuned later for highlights in this week's moving the game forward. Mazda, move and be moved. So Kansas takes on UCF Saturday night game. This is a tough place to play.

Starting point is 00:01:18 It's going to be rocking on a Saturday night as well. And I think the biggest storyline into all this for me, for KU, is just like, what is this Kansas team? because you can look at both losses and say, hey, Missouri's a good team, a loss that came on the road, you had a lead late in the fourth quarter. You led late in the fourth quarter against Cincinnati. Maybe Cincinnati ends up being an eight or nine win team, who knows? And that it's not the big deal.

Starting point is 00:01:40 You can also look at it and look at some of the defensive issues and look at the difficult part of the schedule coming up for KU where you still have to play at Texas Tech. You still have to play at Arizona. You all of a sudden has more life than last year. You still have to play Utah at home. You still have to play at Iowa State. You still have K-State who's beating you 16 straight times.

Starting point is 00:02:00 The schedule does not get much easier for KU. And as you look at that schedule, the most gimmee game, the game that you should win the most, is the home game against Oklahoma State. Even then there's going to be some revenge game factor for Oklahoma State, but that's neither here nor there. That would get you to four wins. Where are you finding the other two to win to, you know, go bowling? Could you beat K State? Could you beat, you know, Utah on senior day?

Starting point is 00:02:23 Like, of course, you could win all these different games. but the path to getting to bowl eligibility gets a lot more difficult if you don't win this game, not just from a standpoint of the math to get there, but also from a standpoint of if you lose this game, it's probably indicative that maybe you're not on that plane. And I think this is a talented team that should be talented enough to go to a bowl game. I thought they should have last year, though, too, and they didn't. So even though I think they're talented enough, even though I think they're good enough to do it, you do have to actually come through with the results.

Starting point is 00:02:55 And that's where this game becomes important. It's projected to be a close game by Fandul, and we know KU has struggled in close games. So, like, can you get over the hump in this one at UCF? And what defense are we going to see in the process for KU? Are we going to see the defense that looked awesome against West Virginia and, you know, Wagner, but still Wagner. Fresno State, is it going to be one of those defenses

Starting point is 00:03:18 or is it going to be the defense that couldn't get off the field on third and fourth that couldn't cover against Missouri and Cincinnati last week. What are we going to see from the KU defense that could determine if they win this game? That's going to determine how they fare for really the rest of the season if you're KU. Now obviously one of the key, I don't mention storylines of this one too will be Bengali Kamara's out for the first half targeting call he got in the second half against Cincinnati. He's out for the first half of this one. And that's super important because, A, he's one of your best players. He's one of your best defensive players.

Starting point is 00:03:51 but also UCF is going to test those linebackers with their really strong running game and really strong running backs. And, you know, he would be somebody who as an athletic linebacker is really going to help you in a game against a team that has a bunch of athletes. And, you know, I think Kansas was still having troubles when Bengali Kamar was in the game last week against Cincinnati, but it still makes it harder when he's not in the game. And like, who knows, for all we know if Bengali Kamar is in for the rest of the game, ends up winning that game. Maybe they do get, you know, maybe, I don't know, maybe what if it's

Starting point is 00:04:25 Bengali Camaro who would have had the interception opportunity on the, was it third and 10? And what if he comes up with it? We'll never know, right? But we do know he's out for at least one half. Now, as far as the other notices of injury for KU, long list of players who are out. Daniel Hyshaw is out for this one as of the report that came out on Wednesday night. And so that's unfortunate there. That just means, you know, more role for Lishon Williams, which has been the case here of late anyway. But, you know, Highshaw had a big game against UCF the last time these two teams met in 2023,

Starting point is 00:04:58 so he won't be there. Laquan Robinson is new to this. Now he hasn't been playing a ton. Dylan Brooks, same. Deshawn Hanukkah, that one, unfortunately. He got hurt in the early going of the Cincinnati game. So that just means you're counting more on guys like Bowden Grown and Carson Bruin. And Hanukkah has had a solid start to the season.

Starting point is 00:05:15 So KU without their starting tight end, they're without their starting running back. They're without Mason Ellis, who is their starting basically third safety hawk player because they play this 4-2-5. So you're without a bunch of starters there. And then the rest of the guys are guys that I don't know that they would have hit the field anyway. And then you're without Bengali Kamara for the first half. So that is a tough thing to deal with if you're Kansas, right?

Starting point is 00:05:38 In a game that is this important to show what you can do and reach your goals of what you want to do, you are now basically without four of your starters for the first half. That's brutal. if you're KU. Now, Leif Marjohn's questionable too, and that's your kicker. Like, he just popped up on there. Like, that's not great. Good news, I guess, Sayy Gibbs is probable because you're already, you know, feel like you've given up enough in the secondary. The last thing you want to see is the secondary struggling and they're injured. But I guess you kind of already have that with Mason Ellis. So not a great injury report for KU coming into this one against UCF. Now, you may be wondering,

Starting point is 00:06:13 okay, who are some of these UCF players that are on their injury report? Is there anybody of know. Well, so on the office side of all Caden peening, you see that he's listed out as a tight end. He's only registered 28 snaps so far this season. So that's not one necessarily that that's a huge deal. Dylan Wade has registered 101 snaps. That is somebody who is playing, you know, a good amount of time for UCF and him being as questionable. He's been fine so far. Hasn't been too great and run blocking, but that could be one to kind of keep an eye on there. And the Jacuri Brown is kind of the big one. But as you look at Jacuri Brown, who's a quarterback, and again, he's on the questionable side here. Brown is more of their running quarter.

Starting point is 00:06:55 I mean, their quarterbacks can all run, but Brown is maybe the best runner of the three. Feels like Taven Jackson's, maybe the best mix of everything. And then Fancher maybe is more of just the passer. I don't know. But you look at it and the fact that Brown is on there, but Jackson is not at all, tells me, And during our crossover episode yesterday with Mike, he was like, yeah, I'm expecting, you know, Taven Jackson to play. The question becomes he's playing through an injury, which I would have thought he would at least be, I guess, probable on this list. But that certainly makes you think that he's feeling okay and that that's your kind of expectation of who the quarterback is going to be.

Starting point is 00:07:36 Now, as far as some of the injured guys are availability lists on the defensive side, there is a big name on there for UCF. Horace Lockett is a defensive tackle with 113 snaps this year and a 77.5 pff grade, including 75 in run defense and a 75 in pass rush. He's got four pressures so far this season. He's out. So that is something where as KU looks to maybe establish the run, and one possible thing that you might try to do to help out your defense is sustain longer drives, have more effectiveness running the ball. I look at a guy like Lockett being out, especially with those two good defense events for UCF to where, you know, maybe you can just have them running down the field, pass rushing, and you can kind of go at them in a way as I nearly knock my computer off.

Starting point is 00:08:21 But that is certainly a big loss for UCF to not have him in this game. As far as Goud and Hayward, those are guys with both under 30 snaps so far this season. So those ones not as big. Jaden Williams is another interesting one, though, that he's out as Williams has 84 snaps this year with a 66 PFF grade. So he's certainly somebody who was contributing for UCF, but again, he's out for the game. So this is actually a pretty brutal injury report when you're looking at both teams. And then you look at the other guys who were questionable on the defensive side for UCF.

Starting point is 00:08:55 Kelly Lawson is not off to a great start this season, just a 50 PFF grade, but also he's played 148 snaps. And, you know, maybe part of the reason the PFF grade is so low is because he's playing through an injury. We see that happen a good amount of time. But that would be one where it's like, if he's playing that many snaps and the grade's not very good, what does that mean about the guy behind him, right? And then Isaiah Nixon, 76 snaps this year.

Starting point is 00:09:20 He's got a 63 PFF grade. He's on the questionable list. And then Reed would be the last one. He's yet to log a snap so far this season. So kind of an interesting injury report for both teams coming in. Certainly big injury storylines coming in for UCF. We're about their quarterbacks, but it sounds like Taven Jackson is going to be a go there. All right, let's give to our UCF scouting report,

Starting point is 00:09:42 matchups of the game, and more. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fanduel Sportsbook. The NFL seasons here, and Fanduel has an offer you don't want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right. Pick a bet, put down $5, and if it hits, you'll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. And stay tuned for our Friday episode where we're going to be.

Starting point is 00:10:10 going to do Fandual Friday. We're going to go over the spread of the upcoming KUUCF game. We're going to go over some player props. Maybe build a fun little player parlay, which you can do all that over at Fandle. Plus, you can get early futures on the college basketball season. Darren Peterson's still going off at plus A50 to win the wooden award. Don't tell too many people because we want those odds to stay really good. So what are you waiting for? Visit fanduel.com to download the Fandwell app today and get started with Fanduel. Today's episode of the show is also brought to you by Square. Your favorite neighborhood spots run on square.

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Starting point is 00:11:56 Shoot, locked on college basketball as well to get you ready for the upcoming college basketball season. I know we're in October. It's going to be here before we know it. UCF comes into this one, three and one on the season. They beat Jacksonville State. Now, okay, as we go through the schedule here, this is another one of those teams. And to be clear, this doesn't mean they're bad because we did this with Cincinnati too. We came into the Cincinnati game and said, oh, they're two and one, but it's like, who have they played?

Starting point is 00:12:21 They lost to Nebraska. That was their best game, but they showed some weaknesses, but there's also a close loss. And then I was like, they only beat Bowling Green by 14. They beat a really bad FCS team. Like, how good just actually is Cincinnati? We didn't know. And I feel that way about UCF. Jacksonville State, they only beat 17 to 10.

Starting point is 00:12:36 And Jacksonville State's only two and three. They dominated North Carolina A&T, who's a one and four FCS team, 68 to 7. And then they crushed North Carolina, which is a powerful team, but also North Carolinas look really bad. They had a blowout, lost the TCU. Their wins are against Charlotte and Richmond. And last week, in their, I guess, realist game, so to speak, they lost by 14 to K State, which, you know, losing by 14 to K State, who's a team that, you know, could turn around. And maybe that was the start of the turnaround at any point in time. But it doesn't sound that bad, but it was 31 to 10 at one point late in that game.

Starting point is 00:13:08 So, like, how good is this UCF team is a question that I don't really have the answer to? They could win this game and they could win six or seven games this year. They could also lose this game and finish as a four-win team. I have no idea. But it definitely becomes more difficult to play them because you're playing them on the road. Now, both teams are obviously coming off a loss. You would imagine both teams should have, you know, kind of full attention here. The coach is Scott Frost making his triumphant return.

Starting point is 00:13:34 That actually lost to K-State, snap day, what, 16-game winning streak for him? he obviously had great success of UCF, 6 and 7 in year 1, 13 and 0 in year 2, then 16 and 31 in Nebraska. By the way, already going to get ahead of this next year in every preseason magazine. They're going to bring up, well, year 2 at UCF his first time around, they went 13 and 0, so watch out that is 100% going to happen. Now, Scott Frost had a lot of success as a player against Kansas when he was at Nebraska, but we don't need to talk about that.

Starting point is 00:14:02 When you look at UCF, most of those preseason magazines and publications and estimations picked them in the bottom half, near the bottom, kind of collectively in the Big 12 leading into this even season. You look at it now, and ESPNFPI has them at 49th in the country, so it doesn't seem like that, you know, I don't know. Like, Kansas is 31st, so there's not like a wide margin between these. UCF is also 43rd on ESPNSP Plus. They have the number 58 offense, number 34 defense there. Kansas in that metric is 33rd. So that's only 10 spots apart featuring the number 15 offense.

Starting point is 00:14:37 and number 58 defense. When you look at the personnel for UCF, really good speed at skill positions. They've got some good size on the outside at receiver. It's not quite, I would say, Missouri from a skill position perspective, but I actually think skill position-wise, it's better than Cincinnati.

Starting point is 00:14:55 And I don't think the quarterbacks as good as Cincinnati. The offensive line's not as good as Cincinnati, but I think skill players-wise, this will be the best team you've played outside of Missouri from that perspective. Miles Montgomery, 51 carries, 268 yards, really good running back. Jaden Nixon's averaging 14 yards per carry, 16 carries 226, very boom or bust. It's either going to be like a zero-yard carry or it's going to be like 50.

Starting point is 00:15:19 Then they've got three receivers over 15 yards per catch. They can hit big plays. Their leading receiver actually isn't one of those. Dwayne Thomas, 16 catches for 203 yard, their most consistent target. But they've got guys they can, you know, get the ball to all around the field. And that's a little worrisome for KU, who to this point, Jalen Todd's been solid as a corner for KU, but outside of that, they've shown certainly some deficiencies in the secondary in coverage.

Starting point is 00:15:44 Now, I mentioned the offensive line. You look at the offensive line grades. They are 60th and past block grade on pro football focus, 82nd in run block grade. They've been better on the left side than the right side so far this season, but that has not been an area. They don't rank well in like offensive line run push and some of those different numbers. You know, they're not getting sacked like a ton.

Starting point is 00:16:06 It's a little bit more than Kansas, but it's definitely not a unit that you would call the strength. Defensively, they've been strong in pass rush and coverage. I think you look at it as they have a really strong defensive line and one that could wreck a game, one that can certainly cause a lot of pressure and create chaos on your passing game. And then you look at the special team side. They are seven of eight on field goals. They have a kick return for a touchdown this year. And that becomes, you know, even more of an interesting matchup with Laif Marjan.

Starting point is 00:16:36 truly is out or, you know, is playing through an injury in this one. The quarterback position for them, it's been different guys. So Camp Fancher was the original starter, gets hurt in the opener. Then it goes to Taven Jackson, and last week, both Jackson and one of the backups gets hurt. Well, it sounds like Jackson's going to be back, wasn't on the injury report. He was a former transfer from Tennessee and then Indiana. So far this year, 65% completion rate, eight yards per attempt. Both those are solid.

Starting point is 00:17:02 Three touchdowns and one interception, though in his career, just nine to seven. TD an interception ratio mentioned he's been sacked a little more than Kansas at six times compared to four times for Jalen Daniels and that's also with Jalen throwing the ball 26 more times but he's also got 75 rushing yards three touchdowns so I wouldn't call him like he's not Michael Vick running the football but he's certainly not a statue either and then the all encompassing QBR it has him at 59.8 which puts him 65th nationally so he's about a you know nationally active average quarterback in college football. I think there's 136 teams now. So that would mean like 68 would be dead average, right? Now, if we go back to the schedule thing, his toughest game, Kansas State, it was only a 17 QBR. So, you know, what does that exactly mean? Was it just a bad game or is it indicative that in the bigger games, he's going to struggle more? I guess we're going to find out. One thing that's interesting, though, is, and this is especially true, coming off the Cincinnati game in which Kansas played a quarterback in Brendan Sorsby at

Starting point is 00:18:05 Cincinnati, who was really good thrown over the middle of the field, Cincinnati was 14 of 16 over the middle of the field against Kansas last Saturday, is that Taven Jackson has actually struggled over the middle of the field beyond 10 yards, but he's really good below 10 yards. So on the season, Taven Jackson is only 5 of 17 for 95 yards over the middle of the field, but beyond 10 yards, so 10 plus yards down the field. But when he's throwing over the middle of the field between behind the line of scrimmage up to the 10 yards he is 37 of 43 very high completion percentage there 3403 yards on the season um that means he's going to continue to test the linebackers and safeties for for k u the bad news obviously the bangaqi kamara stuff the better

Starting point is 00:18:50 news though is that it's not happening as much downfield as the Cincinnati attack but ucf's going to see some of that stuff on tape and probably try to exploit it a little bit more uh should also mention that under pressure, there's obviously been, you know, a big difference as most guys are. Most quarterbacks are worse when they're under pressure. But again, it's hard to take too much from some of those games. And here's something else in this engine. He's done well against the Blitz, 9.6 yards per attempt this year for Taven Jackson against the Blitz. So can you get pressure without blitzing? But more on that later. One other thing that I'll add. And that's very different than Cincinnati. And I think this is a good thing for KU.

Starting point is 00:19:31 Cincinnati was a much better, at least on paper, play action team than UCF in the passing game. Like right now this season, UCF is averaging over four yards per attempt worse than Cincinnati off of play action. And I think that really hurt Kansas in the game. All right, happy stats and sad stats. Four happy stats for UCF. They are third in the big 12 in yards per play and rush yards per play. So they've been just very solid offense so far. Now, that's not schedule adjusted, but, you know, they've played the scheduled in front of them, and they've done well offensively. They're 96th percentile in offensive explosive play rate, including 99th percentile for running explosive plays.

Starting point is 00:20:10 They can hit big plays, including with the running game, which makes sense with their speed. 95th percentile in early downs, EPA per play defensively, meaning they're doing a really good job on first and second down on the defensive side of the ball. And the 95th percentile in EPA per play against the pass. defensively, meaning that they're doing a really good job against the pass, might be more onus on the KU running game to get going to try to win this game. For sad stats, though, for UCF, according to ESPNFPI, UCF has played the number 106 schedule in the country. So that kind of backs up what we're talking about,

Starting point is 00:20:44 where it's like some of these raw stats look good, but what do they actually mean in context against, you know, conference foes, better teams? They're 13th in the Big 12 in yards per carry allowed. So even though the past events has been good, they have shown some holes in the run defense game, which was exploited by Kansas State. If Kansas can do that, you keep the defense off the field a little bit more. They are 11th percentile.

Starting point is 00:21:06 You want to be the higher numbers there. 11th percentile means 89 percent of college football at the D1 level is better than you in this. And that would be offensive line rush yards per game on paper. So they are not getting much offensive line run push. Most of their big games from the running game is coming from the running backs, making guys miss and making explosive plays. And then their ninth percentile in preventing a. explosive running play rate. They're much better versus the pass in preventing

Starting point is 00:21:30 explosive plays, but obviously when the yard per carry is high against them defensively against the run, a big reason why is they're giving up a lot of explosive plays. But what's interesting there, KU hasn't gotten a ton of explosive plays in the running game. Maybe this a game where that can happen. They've actually been okay at moving the ball here and there, but if they can hit some more explosives, then it becomes a much more effective running game for KU. All right, let's finish up with our matchups of the game. this episode of the show is brought to you by Mazda Mazda crafts cars for those who do more than simply move

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Starting point is 00:22:24 Mazda, move, and be moved. Today's episode's also brought to you by GameTime. College football's back, and I don't know how you couldn't be more excited. The tailgates, the rivalries, energy and the stands, nothing like it. But sometimes getting tickets can be stressful. It can be more of a battle than the game itself because of hidden fees, price jumps at checkouts, just knowing, am I going to get the tickets? Am I going to get the tickets?

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Starting point is 00:23:34 All right, matchups of the game. First down, establishing the run and hitting or limiting explosive running place. UCF hasn't been too hot against the run. They also give a bunch of explosives here. And so when you look at that, you know, that's something that KU you would hope can get more explosives in the running game than they're getting this season. Kansas, meanwhile, they're in just the 15th percentile for explosive run play rate offensively. So this is an opportunity too, and you kind of have to boost it.

Starting point is 00:24:05 Now, KU has actually been strong against the run defensively, even though the defense has, you know, had their shortcomings in a couple of the games so far this season. You look at success rate against the run. Kansas ranks 39th in the country. You look at EPA per play against the run. Kansas is in the 83rd percentile there. But UCF is really strong running on their side of the ball offensively. Plus, one thing that KU might try to do, and I don't even think this is just like a this game thing, just kind of moving forward to lessen some of the defensive issues is more ball control, right?

Starting point is 00:24:41 When you're looking at Kansas and you're saying, hey, if you're having some defensive issues, hold on to the ball a little bit longer, keep that defense arrested, keep it off the field, and maybe try to play a little bit more possession football. That wouldn't shock me. Second down, get pressure without blitzing. Taven Jackson actually has a higher completion percentage and averages over two more yards per attempt this year when he's blitzed compared to when he's not. But his completion percentage splatters when he's under pressure compared to it's like 20 percentage

Starting point is 00:25:11 points worse when he's under pressure versus when he's not. so can you find a way to get pressure without blitzing can your defensive line win with three or four you know maybe sometimes even five if you have to but against their whole line that's not necessarily a strength can you find a way to win that way right because if not your shaky secondary is going to have problems again and with mason alice mason ellis one of your starting safeties out in addition to the main collie kamara stuff like you need as many guys back there in coverage uh as possible so the good news is kate does have obviously some talent on the defensive line that may be the best position group for KU on the defensive side of the football, go take advantage in this game against, you know, you didn't have the best game against Cincinnati, even though the pressure numbers looked really good. It needs to be better if KU wants to take down UCF. Third down is third downs.

Starting point is 00:26:04 Kansas is only 14th in the Big 12th on third downs. They're 31% there. Add to it, we mentioned the happy stat earlier. UCF is in the 95th percentile. offensively in EPA per play on early downs, that means that they're forcing a lot of teams into third and longs. You want to win on the road in a tough environment, you're going to have to convert third downs. And if you're in third and long all day long and they're just screaming at you in a loud environment, good luck trying to win a game like that. And so Kansas, who has been

Starting point is 00:26:33 one of the best offenses on third down in the Big 12, the last three years before this year, can you start to get that going in this game? Now, on the flip side, what's been the thing that's constantly plagued the KU defense over and over again. It's making stops on late downs. So enter UCF, who is just 31st percentile in early downs EPA per play. So they're actually getting themselves into some third and longs, but they are 91st percentile in late downs EPA per play, meaning UCF fits right into the billing of what the KU defense is allowed. KU's defense has been pretty good on first and second down. They haven't been very good on third and fourth downs. That's been exactly what the UCF offenses.

Starting point is 00:27:12 So I don't know if that's a good or bad thing. I don't know if that's like a bad thing because it's like, oh, okay, they're like, or is it a good thing because you're going to set them up in even worse, third down situations. I don't know. That'll be very interesting. Fourth down is finishing in the red zone. Kansas is dead last 16th in the big 12th in percentage of red zone trips that lead to points at just 74%. UCF, meanwhile, they're top five, so they're finishing their drives.

Starting point is 00:27:38 You think back last week, the field goal drives that you did have. could you have punched it in one more time in a touchdown and you know all of a sudden you're forcing i guess Cincinnati to go for two at the end there and on the flip side Kansas is just one of four teams in the big 12 who has given up scores on every red zone trip they've allowed defensively so this isn't just about hey the KU offense has struggled in the red zone and UCF's offense has not it's also that the kU defense has struggled in the red zone again there's only four teams in the big 12 right now who have given up a score on every red zone trip Kansas is one of those four UCF, they're only giving up scores on 70% of their red zone trip, not just touchdowns, any score.

Starting point is 00:28:17 So that's something red zone offense defense has to be better in this game for KU. And on paper, those are both UCF advantages. But if Kansas can change that or find kind of an evening there, then maybe you turn a strength for them on paper into kind of a neutral and you can win in some other ways. I don't know for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks, you can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to. the show. We'll see you next time for another edition of LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Faces SEASON-DEFINING TEST vs UCF | Jayhawks & Lance Leipold vs Knights & Scott Frost PREVIEW

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