Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Faces TOUGHEST TEST Yet | Will Jayhawks, Jalon Daniels SHOCK the Texas Tech Red Raiders?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Any chance Kansas can pull off what would be, I would argue, the best win of the Lance Leipold era with preview KU and Texas Tech. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson here? This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. And thank you to the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And on today's edition of LOJ, we are previewing Kansas against Texas Tech. We're going to get into some of the latest injury report news. We're going to get into the biggest storylines and headlines for this one. The Texas Tech scouting report, deep dive into their quarter. backs, matchups of the game, and plenty more on today's episode of LOJ. And it's all brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if you bet wins, you'll get $300 and bonus bets to use across the app.

Starting point is 00:01:12 Download the app today with Fandual. So Kansas takes on Texas Tech, a little Saturday night action in the Big 12th. I think, I don't know, if we're looking at like, what's the biggest storyline on this one? To me, it's just kind of like you continue to try to figure out. how good all of these teams are in college football. For Texas Tech, it's more of like, okay, it seems like they're the best team in the Big 12, though if they lose this game, then it becomes more of a conversation again of, is it wide open?

Starting point is 00:01:40 But for Texas Tech, it's not just that. Is Texas Tech one of the best teams in the country, not just the Big 12? From the Kansas perspective, the conversation kind of, to me, circles around, like, and honestly, we might not even have the answer at the end. Like, the perfect result is still not understanding what Kansas is, is KU losing this game like relatively close like losing by seven losing by 10 points or something because if Kansas wins this game we're going to walk away from it saying Kansas is a very good football team like if Kansas wins this game they should be ranked they'd be five and two their two losses would

Starting point is 00:02:13 be close game to Cincinnati close game at Missouri other two other ranked teams um if Kansas loses this game and gets blown out they're sitting at four and three and it's like okay two close losses good team got blown out wet tack yeah you're probably a six or seven win team kind of like what we've been thinking all the way along. But the flip side to this is if you're in that limbo zone where if you do lose by seven or 10 points, we are going to walk away. You'll be able to have the arguments.

Starting point is 00:02:39 You'll be able to say, no, I'm telling you, Kansas is a good team. I know they're four and three, but they have all these close losses to good opponents. It's like, well, at some point you do have to start winning the games. And, you know, the flip side of that will be like, okay, but, you know, when are they going to weigh? Because if you're not going to win any of those games against good opponents,

Starting point is 00:02:55 then it's not going to matter. So that's the biggest. zone where it's like I think we'll have a tough time figuring out how good is this team if if they end up losing by 10 points or 14 points or something like that where it's like they covered the spread but you know they still couldn't find a way to win so but we will learn you know a little bit more I think about the defense certainly was that second half for real against UCF because if you're able to replicate anything close to that in the Texas Tech game against a really good offense we'll start to say that versus if tech throws it all around you

Starting point is 00:03:24 just like the Missouri and since that games it's going to be further proof they're like yeah if you're playing any quarterback with a pulse, you're kind of screwed on defense. But we're going to learn more about that specifically. Now, I think we're also going to look, this might sound crazy, but like legitimately, if KU goes into Lubbock and wins the game and Jayland Daniels has a big performance, he's going to start popping up in Heisman conversations. I saw the athletic did like a Heisman straw poll, which they typically do like every week. And somebody gave Jayland Daniels like a second place vote. It was one vote. If they won this game or heck, if it was like, like an overtime loss or something and Jalen's just going off he's going to start getting like at least

Starting point is 00:04:02 some pub and recognition not saying he's going to be the frontrunner but he'll at least be in there so those to me are kind of the biggest storylines and headlines of this one um the news of this one the injury news i should say um a lot of guys on the out list for k u which is not great joseph sip is out now sip has not been so like he was somebody who was expecting big things before the season begun and he just hasn't been able to. He's only played two games. I don't know if he still has a red shirt available. I wonder if that is still an option.

Starting point is 00:04:33 Does that make sense? Because Bengali Kumar and Trey Lathen are graduating at the end of the year. At this point, you just, you know, say, okay, we're going to just get you in two more games and try to keep you for next year. I don't remember what the situation is there. Devon Dye is out. Obviously, he had the injury against UCF. That's unfortunate because KU thin at the safety position.

Starting point is 00:04:52 Now, they could potentially be a little less thin at the safety position. position because Lake Juan Robinson is listed as questionable, and Mason Ellis is listed as questionable. Now, probably know both guys won't play, but the fact that Ellis was out last week, now he's questionable. That would be a huge pickup back if KU could get Mason Ellis back into the fold as kind of their third safety, like linebacker type. Ellis has had a good season so far. He's played 119 snaps, 71.7 PFF grade. He'd be a very useful and helpful player for a game like this for KU. Now, Dylan Brooks still out. Sean Hanukah out. Obviously, that was announced. He's out for the year, so sucks there.

Starting point is 00:05:26 Ezra Vedral is out. So one of your backup linebackers, David Apagian, Jason Strickland, Conley-Hovie, Jaden Nickens, guys, we continue to see on the outlist who weren't going to be on the too deep. And then Saeed Gibbs is the other one. So Gibbs being out tests your, he's not a safety. He's a corner, but could test your safety in corner depth a little more, because sometimes you're going to have a safety come into that slot roll. Gibbs, 61.1 pff grade hasn't been, you know, a great year for him.

Starting point is 00:05:53 He's been targeted at times that it hasn't been like a just down. right bad year either it's just been a fine ho-hum year um so other players are gonna have to step up there and and we mentioned if if mason ellis is out too and you're down dev and i and sayid gibbs both guys who are playing a lot for you and you're down mason ellis like that's a lot to have to lose in the secondary and then daniel highshaw is doubtful now obviously that makes me expect him not you know playing in this game i guess we'll see that just means more for like leashon williams but it actually is good news that he's undoubtful from the standpoint of last week again he was just listed as out and to go from out last week to doubtful this week at least

Starting point is 00:06:35 makes you feel like he's progressing right it doesn't mean he's going to play this week but then you think about it you have the buy week after this and then you have Kansas State and it'll be the last opportunity for high shot to play Kansas State and so that's kind of where I'm circling it and being like okay the trend in the right direction tells me that I'm kind of expecting that to be the case. He'll be back for Kansas Day. And again, I'm not reporting it. I have no idea.

Starting point is 00:07:00 That's just like me reading between the lines there. And when you look at the Texas Tech injury report, players out for them. Roy Alexander and Tristan Gentry both at the receiver position. Texas Tech has a very deep receiving court. They've got a bunch of different guys that they can throw the ball. Gentry only came in with three snaps. Roy Alexander came in with 27. So not really guys that were planning to, I don't know, impact that too much necessarily.

Starting point is 00:07:28 And then Holton Hendricks also listed it out as an offense alignment. It hadn't played a snap so far this season for them. They do have a couple of offense alignment on the questionable list. Hunter Zambrano is he related to Carlos. I'm not 100 percent. But 57 PFF grade, or I'm sorry, 72 PFF grade, just 57 snaps. So not really a regular, but certainly somebody who, I don't know, I guess he'd be on the two deep. Howard Sampson, though, that is one that's interesting.

Starting point is 00:07:54 330 snaps for Samson, and he was one of their big transfer portal pickups, came in from North Carolina where he had a big year there before he was at North Texas, 67.5 pff grade, that'll be a big one, whichever way it goes. So that's definitely one to keep an eye on. And then Probables on the defensive side of the ball with Amoryon Banks and Ashton Hampton, so I'm just kind of kind of assume that both of those guys are playing. And as far as the guys who are questionable or out on the defensive side of the ball, Terry and Grant is a corner.

Starting point is 00:08:27 He's out. He only came in with 25 snaps and had a 42 PFF grade. So I don't think that one's going to hurt too bad. Chapman Lewis has not played a snap so for this season. And then this is the biggest one of all. I'm just expecting him to play because this dude's a warrior and he's unbelievable. But the fact that Jacob Rodriguez is on the questionable report, he's an All-American, he's the Big 12 defensive player of the year.

Starting point is 00:08:49 he's one of the best, not just linebackers, not just defensive players. He's one of the best players in the country. The fact that he's questionable, you know, does it slow down his performance at all, right? What if it does take a turn for the words? What if he is out? That would be a huge loss for Texas Tech. So keep an eye on that one for sure with Jacob Rodriguez. Okay, let's get to our Texas Tech scouting report and then matchups of the game.

Starting point is 00:09:13 This is Locked on Jayhawks. And today's episode of LOJ is brought to you by Supply House. When the opening whistle blows on a new repair, get your crew moving forward with Supply House. Order today and see parts on your doorstep tomorrow. Over 280,000 plumbing,

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Starting point is 00:10:59 fan duel.com. Download the fan duel app today and get started. Thanks for joining us on this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can check out Lockton College football for your second listen every day. All right, Texas, Texas Seattle report. They're 5 and 0 on the season. 67 to 7 FCS win, then a 62 to 14 win over Kent State, which is kind of like an FCS win at this point, 45 to 14 win against Oregon State, which is also kind of like an FSA. No, not really. I have respect for Oregon State and Corvallis, love the town. Anyway, but yeah, Oregon State's not been very good this year.

Starting point is 00:11:35 So tough to tell too much from that. The Utah game was 13 to 10 at one point at Utah. And then they put up 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter to win 34 to 10. That was a statement win. Utah still is one of the best teams in the Big 12, at least we think. We still have a ways to go there, but that was really impressive what they did. And then they went 35 to 11 at Houston, which I was really impressed with that one, because I think very highly of Willie Fritz, and that's a tough place to play on the road.

Starting point is 00:11:58 So every game decided by 24 or more, they've been dominant so far. Their coach, Joey McGuire, he was speaking of dominant, a dominant high school football coach in Texas, climbed the assistant ladder at Baylor. Now he's in year four is the head coach at Texas Tech, 28 and 16 record. They've been solid each and every year, but this is his best team. This is his breakout year. after very high preseason expectations, although probably not as high national expectations as where they are right now, just from a standpoint of this kind of question of, is this going to work?

Starting point is 00:12:28 Locally, very high expectations because of all the money that went into, you know, nailing the transfer portal. It was very funny seeing all of the SEC and Big Ten folks getting all up in arms about how dare Texas Tech spend all this money on their roster. It's like, are you serious? Anyway, Texas Tech is number five on ESPNSP Plus right now. would say that it worked. I would say that their offseason spending spree was money well spent and good on them for doing it. But number four offense, number 11 defense and number 26 special

Starting point is 00:12:58 teams. So they've been a wagon so far. They're ninth in the AP poll and 14th on ESPN, FBI. Now, we'll say if you look at ESPN FBI, Kansas and Tech, it has them closer to a six point difference on a neutral field. Now, this is not a neutral field. So maybe it says it's closer to eight, nine, 10 points, but that would be closer than the two touchdowns of the spread being right now. That's just one site's opinion or metrics opinion. The player personnel for Texas Tech, they have two stud quarterbacks with Will Hammond and Baron Morton. Cameron Dickie and Jacoby Will Williams each have over 300 rushing yards.

Starting point is 00:13:29 It's kind of running back by committee. Adam Hill has over 200. Hammond has a bunch of rushing yards too. They have five different receivers who have 220 or more receiving yards. And overall pro football focus gives them the country's number five receiving grade. As far as the offensive line, PFF gives them the number 10 in the nation. pass blocking number 27 in the nation and run blocking so they're good there uh defensively the defensive line that's probably where they put most their money in the portal and worth every penny

Starting point is 00:13:57 david bailey leads the way five and a half sacks 31 pressures they are number three as a team in pass rush grade on pro football focus and then jacob rodriguez we mentioned it's part of the questionable report one of the best linebackers in the country 33 tackles two interceptions overall texas tag led by rodriguez and company number seven in the country in tackling grade so they just kind of do everything well. They're also number one in the country in coverage grade, though I don't know how much of, like, they have some good players back there. Bryce Pollock is a really good player. He's got three interceptions. I can't help but think, though, being number one coverage grade isn't related to how good their pass rush is. Maybe they're a top 30 coverage team in

Starting point is 00:14:33 the country, but that's going to certainly boost it up, right. Now, you look at the quarterback position for Texas deck. Barron Morton, 69% on the year, 10.1 yards per attempt, 1410 yards, 12 touchdowns, three interceptions not many rushing stats though in his career he's shown the ability when he needs to he had an injury in the first week this year i don't know if that's slowing him down will hammond meanwhile who came in in the utah game after morton went down with an injury and started kind of a quarterback controversy not not a typical typically a quarterback controversy is because like oh the starter's struggling should we put the backup in no it's just because baron morton's been doing well will hammond was unbelievable and he's right now completing 76% of his balls nine yards per

Starting point is 00:15:12 attempt, 369 yards, four touchdowns, one pick, and 170 on the ground with two more scores. Whoever it is, though, they have the number one pass efficiency offense in the big 12th. They are sixth nationally in passing EPA per play and 17th nationally in success rate throwing the ball. So very successful. A lot of short passes, which I find interesting, they still get a lot of explosives, but their top thrown to area is zero to nine yards. When you look at that, 61 attempts for Morton between zero to nine yards.

Starting point is 00:15:42 then the second most is behind the line of scrimmage with 29 attempts, then 21 attempts between 10 to 19 yards and then 20 attempts at 20 more yards. So that means that if you count within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, so basically nine yards pass the line of scrimmage all the way back to the throws behind the line of scrimmage, almost 70%, 69% of Baron Morton's passes are nine yards are under. So a lot of short passes. You might be wondering, is that a high number? I have no idea.

Starting point is 00:16:10 Jalen Daniels attempts 54% of it. of his passes in such an area. So 15 percentage point upgrade for Baron Morton. That tells me, yes, they are throwing a lot of short and underneath passes, which means, you know, not a ton of outside boundary shots. They'll take a couple here and there, and they do very good at hitting them when they do take them. But I kind of like Jalen Todd sticking a nickel this week, trying to work over the middle

Starting point is 00:16:31 of the field. Big game that means for tackling underneath, making open field tackles and defending those short routes, safeties, corners, linebackers, all getting in on the game there. key stats for Texas Tech, four happy stats for them. Number one, they are leading the Big 12 in points per game and points allowed per game. And the difference from them to second place in points per game is wider than the gap from second place to 10th place. So it's not even close with how many points they're averaging.

Starting point is 00:16:59 48 points per game, 11 points allowed per game. They are number one in the Big 12 in yards allowed per carry. They're giving up just 2.3 yards per carry. And they are in the 99th percentile in rush. EPA per play defense. Very good run defense. They're number two in the big 12 in past efficiency defense. And that's thanks in part to leading the big 12 with eight interceptions. So they definitely can get some of those. Jayland Daniels going to have to be on his game in this one. And then they're in the 89th percentile offensively in late down success rate. And that is one that is very scary to me

Starting point is 00:17:34 because as we know, the KU defense has really struggle on some of those key late downs on those third and fourth downs and now you're playing an offense that has excelled in accomplishing those four sad stats for tech 107th nationally in EPA per play running the football so hasn't been a great running the football team even though they do have you know a good amount of overall yards as a team they're in the 32nd percentile nationally in passing explosive play rate defensively meaning that teams have been able to even though you know they have a lot of interceptions I wonder if a little bit of that is boom and bust. They've given up a decent amount of big plays in the passing game.

Starting point is 00:18:12 We've seen Kansas, they haven't really gotten a ton of big plays in the running game. We've gotten a few here or there, but, you know, overall, their ranking is a little lower. The passing game has been, you know, solid there with Emmanuel Henderson. So maybe Henderson gets a couple big ones in this game. Levi Wentz gets a big one. Who knows? Texas Tech has also been forced to kick a field goal 11 times in the red zone this season. They've been there 28 times, which is a lot.

Starting point is 00:18:32 But 11 field goals, that's just under half the times that they're there. can Kansas be a bend but don't break at times? And then Texas Tech doesn't have the best punting unit. That's where we're stuck with. Texas Tech's a really good team, so we don't have a ton of sad stats to go on, but 10th in the big 12 and yards per punt. Maybe you can take advantage there.

Starting point is 00:18:49 Let's finish up with our matchups of the game. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Mazda. Mazda crafts cars for those who do more than simply move. From footwork to breathwork, athletes sweat all the details. Mazda brings the same intention to how we craft every month. You can feel Japanese craftsmanship in every detail from the metallic accents to available Napa leather upholstery. With all-wheel drive standard in every crossover SUV, you can drive with confidence through almost any season.

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Starting point is 00:20:27 Quo, no missed calls, no missed customers. Thanks for joining us on today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks. Again, check out Locked on College Football and give us follow at LO underscore Jayhawks or at D Johnson Radio. What are the matchups of the game? What are going to be the key pieces for KU against Texas Tech? First down, can Kansas block Texas Tech? Very point blank. The great past defense, you know, pass efficiency defense, the interceptions that Tech has,

Starting point is 00:20:56 the yards per carry against numbers that we've kind of talked about, it all starts with the defensive line in the pass rush. And I think all of them have some level of relationship. to the pass rush, right? If you're getting more sacks, it's going to lower the opponent's yard per carry number because that counts against rushing yards in college football. If you're getting pressure, it's going to force more ill-advised throws and possibly more interceptions. If, you know, it's going to make your past defense overall a lot better. It makes life a lot easier when you can rush the passer. Here's the pro football-focused grades

Starting point is 00:21:27 of the Texas Tech starting front four. David Bailey, 90.4. Ramello height, 91.4. Those are their two defensive ends. Then up the middle, Skylar Gil Howard, 84.3, and Lee Hunter, 85.6. Missouri had a really good defensive line that Kansas played. I think this one's even better. I think this is going to be the best defensive line you played. Missouri will probably be second, maybe Utah will be third or something like that. It is very good. So can you block them, right? And that doesn't mean you have to be perfect. Doesn't mean you need a game where you have zero to actually, you have only one tackle for loss. Some of those things are going to happen in this game. they just are how do you respond to it and can you just avoid it from becoming the thing of the game

Starting point is 00:22:11 like don't walk away from this game going yeah tex tech one the game because they had seven sacks and 12 tfls it's like oh they had one sack maybe a few more pressures than you would like they had five tfls and it's like yeah they didn't take over the game but they had a few plays that they won on but if they can block tech kansas ranks 12 nationally in yards per attempt passing quarterback rating and touchdown to interception ratio and tech has given up a fair amount of passing explosive plays that we talked about earlier if you can block them you can hit some of those passing explosive plays and maybe have more they haven't given up more than 14 points i think you would hope that kansas can score more than that but it starts with being able to block them second down is avoiding the killer turnover texas tech leads the big 12 with those eight interceptions they're also tied fifth in fumbles forced with five of them this is a defense that not only are they're very good they're forcing a lot of turnovers. You're two touchdown underdog. How often does a two touchdown underdog win on the road against a really good team without winning the turnover battle? You know, with having killer turnovers themselves. You need to be the team that's forcing the killer turnovers,

Starting point is 00:23:15 not the other way around. So I think Kansas needs to be clean on the offense side of the ball, which is much easier said than done. And I think they have to win the turnover margin here, which obviously is very much coach speak because you say that going into each and every game. but when you are a two touchdown underdog, that gets amplified even more. Like you need some fun, crazy, weird things to happen, go in your favor. Third down, going back to the well on third down or doing third downs. We've talked a lot about this so far this year. The Kansas, so far this season has not been up to snuff on third downs,

Starting point is 00:23:47 that right now Kansas comes into this game 14th in the Big 12 on third down conversions. And you look at Texas Tech's defense, you guess that they're the number one defense in the big 12 in third down conversion. rate against. But you look at last season, Kansas was first in the Big 12. You look at the two previous seasons, Kansas was hovering around 59 or 49, 50, 51% on third downs. They've consistently over the last three seasons prior to this year been one of the best third down teams in the country. Now, it's a different play caller now, but like, Jalen Daniels is still your quarterback. Did all of that go away? Even if you said you were going to be worse on third downs, I guess you

Starting point is 00:24:22 could say that like, you know, maybe as much as this year's receiving court has much more explosiveness and guys like Emmanuel Henderson, maybe just the trust and the good route running and contested catchmaking of those receivers that you had with Arnold, Grimm, and Skinner. That was enough to be a better third down team. But you wouldn't think it would be a gap this big. You know, you wouldn't think it'd be going from 51% to like 31%. I still think there's some reversion in there for Kansas to happen. And I still don't know if it's going to happen in like a two game stretch where KU just

Starting point is 00:24:51 converts like every third down for like two games. Maybe they just have one game where they go like 10 of 11 or something like that. that. And this probably isn't the one that you would point to because Tech is the number one third down defense. But if ever it were to happen, this would be a great one for it to happen for KU. Because on the paper, it is a big edge for Texas Tech. You also look at the other side. Texas Tech is number three in the Big 12 and third down conversion rate as an offense. KU defense is number 10 of the 16 teams in the league. So third down on paper is a big advantage for Texas Tech. If you want to go on the road and quiet the crowd, it's converting those key third

Starting point is 00:25:23 downs that make it feel like gut punches to the crowd that they can't and off the field. And we saw it work the opposite way when KU played at Missouri. I also think Kansas, if you just want to say late downs here, you have to be more aggressive. You're a two touchdown underdog. You have to be willing to go for some fourth downs that maybe you wouldn't normally do in a game like this. And then fourth down here is KU's defense buckling down in the red zone. If there's a potential bugaboo for Texas Tech, they don't have many, but it might be red zone offense. So they've scored on 90% of the red zone trips, which is solid, but that's seventh in the big 12. That's more middle of the pack for a team who wants to be number one

Starting point is 00:26:00 and everything right now in the big 12. But it's not just the amount of times they're scoring or not scoring. It's the fact that they've had 11 field goals in their 28 trips. So if Kansas can have a game where they keep them around that percentage, right? Let's say they have six red zone trips. Could you find a way to force them to three field goals there? Because six red zone trips would be a lot, but 30 points against the Texas Tech offense that's really explosive when your defense at times has struggled. I don't know. Like, I would take, if you guaranteed tech would only score 30 points, I would take that to the bank and run with it. I know they have a really good defense and it's going to be tough to score 30 points yourself, but like, I would gladly take

Starting point is 00:26:38 that to the bank, right? Kansas has not been very good defensively in the red zone. So far this season, they have the second worst score percentage allowed in the Big 12 at 94% in the red zone. The only team who has a worse score percentage in the red zone is Utah at 100%. But guess what? Utah's only given up six red zone trips. Kansas has given up 17. So point being, and you got a big one against UCF. And we saw the difference there. Kansas got the red zone stop against UCF on the goal line stand. That was their first of the season. You might need another one in this game against Texas Tech if you want to win it. And that is something where you hope to improve at as the season goes on. And maybe that was the start of it improving against UCF. But you're going to really need it against

Starting point is 00:27:21 Texas Tech because that's one of your big hopes in this one. He's trying to hold them. and limit them and bend but not break in the red zone, maybe you're forced to turn over in the red zone, like those would be ways that Kansas could try to pull this upset. We'll get to the keys to the game on tomorrow's episode, though, players to watch all that on tomorrow's episode as well. Thank you for joining us on today's episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast,

Starting point is 00:27:42 including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. See you next time with LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Faces TOUGHEST TEST Yet | Will Jayhawks, Jalon Daniels SHOCK the Texas Tech Red Raiders?

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