Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks at Cincinnati Bearcats: MOMENTUM up for grabs in the Big 12

Starting point is 00:00:00 Will Kansas win two straight on the road? It's entirely possible they can do it at Cincinnati. We preview KU Cincinnati coming up on Saturday. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here at D. Johnson Radio on Twitter. This is Locked On Jayhawks. Thank you for making it your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:00:33 Thank you to the everydayers catching each and every show. And on today's edition of Locked On Jayhawks, we're going to be previewing Kansas and Cincinnati. We're going to get into the matchup headlines, Cincinnati's scouting report. We'll get into the matchup headlines. Cincinnati Scouting Report. We'll get into the matchups of the game and what players to watch on both sides of the ball. First, this episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. From big upsets to game-winning drives, the NFL playoffs are better with FanDuel. New customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus

Starting point is 00:01:01 bets guaranteed win or lose. Just visit FanDuel.com and you can get started today. So Kansas takes on Cincinnati. Saturday game taking place at 1 o'clock, I believe, Central Time. I think I gave the wrong time for the Arizona State game. I think it's at 7 o'clock. I don't know. My head was a mess, apparently. I hope this one's right. Anyway, KU takes on Cincinnati, and the Bearcats,

Starting point is 00:01:23 our team that's been reeling a little bit, whereas Kansas is trying to get momentum of their own and I think that's the big headline coming into this game Cincinnati coming off three straight losses trying to get the ship righted they're trying to go to their first NCAA tournament under their current head coach in Wes Miller who's thought of as kind of an up-and-coming young head coach himself and uh you know they were obviously a very competitive team last year that uh i thought would have been good enough to make the ncaa tournament but obviously you know playing in a difficult big 12 you end up with some extra losses in there but uh i i think they're going to

Starting point is 00:01:53 be good enough to make the tournament this year but obviously they have to stop the skid at some point here for them they're going to be thinking oh great saturday game against kansas trying to end a skid like they're going to be fired up to play this game. You are going to get a good version of Cincinnati, not the same version that they've played as maybe in these last three games. Now, for Kansas, they've won two straight games. You're looking for two straight on the road. You're looking for three straight overall.

Starting point is 00:02:17 And for a Kansas team that, you know, I keep referring to these last two seasons as the Hunter Dickinson era, just because I feel like that's the most notable name. But Kansas is still, even after the last win at UCF, just 4-10 on the road in that era. So it's not as if the 51-point win at UCF, as nice as it was, all of a sudden makes it so that you are going to be expected to be this great road team. And this is the start of two straight on the road for you with this one and at iowa state and you know it's not going to be easy for ku to uh you know win either game when you look at both iowa state and cincinnati both are good teams um if you go one and one in this stretch i think

Starting point is 00:02:59 you're content with it obviously it is kansas basketball so the high expectations are going to be go to no right but i think you'll be at least happy with one or one the problem is if you lose this first game with cincinnati like obviously if you were if you said you can only win one of the two you would still take the at iowa state because it would be an even bigger win but if you do if you have that happen where you lose the first game at cincinnati and you're staring at two and two and big 12 play with at iowa state up next you're not going to feel too great going into that game. So take care of business. Try to get this one done because that's a very important stretch

Starting point is 00:03:30 coming right after that. Now, interestingly enough, this is the first meeting in Ohio since Cincinnati joined the Big 12. Last year they met in Allen Fieldhouse, the Johnny Furphy game, and they met in the Big 12 tournament. But they have played before many other times. Kansas is 4-5 all-time against Cincinnati. Obviously split last year.

Starting point is 00:03:50 They went 2-0 in the Roy Williams era in the 90s against Cincinnati. Maybe the most famous game. I don't know if the youngins know about this one. Oscar Robertson had 43 points. All-time NBA great, Hall of Famer, et cetera. 43 points against Kansas in an NCAA tournament game. So, yeah, Oscar Robertson was very good. And now when you look at the Cincinnati Scouting Board, 10-4 on the season.

Starting point is 00:04:14 They're a team that is receiving votes in both the AP and the Coach's Bowl. They're ranked just outside the top 30 on Ken Palm. They're just inside the top 40 on both Bart Torvik and the net ratings they've lost three straight games though as kind of previously mentioned here which I think you know it's interesting you look at the 10 and 1 start to the season and they come in ranked in the top 20 and everything like that I think it's a little easier now that they've lost three straight games to kind of look back on that and go okay well what happened here are they not as good of a team are they going through something or what's going on here well that 10 and 1 start they did have six wins versus teams outside the top 200 um they

Starting point is 00:04:54 beat dayton who's probably an ncaa tournament team pretty good team from the atlantic 10 by 7 they beat xavier pretty good team from the east by three but both those are ranked around 50th nationally so like solid teams um but you know it's it's not top 25 wins necessarily uh when you look at uh for inside the top 100 um you know losses that they've had that's been the case so far and you know they had a top 45 ish Villanova team that beat them by eight. So I guess you can reasonably look back to it and be like, well, how much of their hot start is just the schedule? Are they just a solid team, a bubble team, a decent team who had an easy schedule early on and now they're in the Big 12? It's a little bit tougher.

Starting point is 00:05:39 Again, are they just in a bad skid and they're going to turn it around? Those are questions that remain to be seen and where they go from here. But three straight losses came by three at Kansas State, which Kansas State's not very good this year, but, you know, I don't know. It's very hard to win on the road in college basketball. It's very hard to win on the road in the Big 12. They lost by five at home to Arizona, and then they lost by 20 on the road against Baylor.

Starting point is 00:06:01 But again, I think you're going to get the best version of Cincinnati in this game. You look at the personnel of note for the Bearcats. They have a 6'3 guard, sophomore, I believe the son of Edgeron James, former Colts running back, Jizzle James. Great name. 11.1 points per game, 4.7 assists per game. He is not shooting great from three, 29% from three, 43% from the floor. But, you know, that just means you expect him to get like three threes against Kansas.

Starting point is 00:06:29 They have a six foot six guard in Dan Skillings. He had a really good game against Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse last year. He can really fill it up when he gets going. Over 13 points per game, 38% from three. And that's really where I think you look at the kind of wing positions for Cincinnati. That's where they can really hurt you on the offensive end. So you have skillings who can score in a lot of different ways. You have a couple guards in Day Day Thomas, who is shooting like 43% from three.

Starting point is 00:06:56 And then you have another wing in Simas Lukosius. It's not that all these guys start, but Lukosius is six foot eight is a shooter. He 13 points over three assists per game. He's shooting almost 40% from three on high volume. He was super hit or miss in the two matchups with KU last year. In the Allen Fieldhouse loss for them, he couldn't hit anything. And then in the Big 12 tournament win over Kansas, he couldn't miss anything. He was making everything in that game.

Starting point is 00:07:22 So we'll see which version of him we get. But that's some really good shooters you have along the way there they'll also play connor hickman about 20 minutes per game he's really struggled shooting the ball so far this season um then they have dylan mitchell who normally in his career has struggled shooting this year he's 33 from three but low volume six of 18 but the best part about dylan mitchell former texas longhorn former five-star recruit, six-foot-eight hyper-athletic wing. He's going for over 11 points, over seven rebounds per game. And according to Evan Mia, he has been the second best defender, the second highest rated defender in the entirety of the Big 12 so far this season. So Dylan Mitchell, really good player. He can defend

Starting point is 00:08:02 you one-on-one. He can be a help side defender because of that athleticism and pogo 25 minutes per game he's shooting 70 from the floor so when you look at it they're offensive with dylan mitchell and aziz bandego that's not a ton of spacing that's not a ton of like offensive creation for them between those two it's a couple guys who can finish at the rim who can dunk the basketball with authority but are both good defenders on that end of the floor so it becomes interesting how that will match up against kansas they also use a six foot eleven 240 pound orinton page for about 13 minutes a game so you'll probably see him as well in addition to a couple other players here there what they do well this is a top 10 defense nationally according to ken palm so far they uh really run teams off the three-point line to this point in the year.

Starting point is 00:09:08 They've held teams in check when they're shooting threes, in addition to that, which makes sense. If you're consistently contesting threes, so they're not shooting as many. When they do shoot them, they're probably going to be tougher shots. They have a top 15 two-point defense. They have a top 50 block rate, right? Vendago and Mitchell have done a good job there they haven't been sending teams the free throw line a ton so that's something you know you do worry about sometimes if you're a good blocking team are you going to be too aggressive right and

Starting point is 00:09:33 then you foul too much that's not been the case they've done a good job avoiding that although that has changed in their three conference games so we'll see what happens in this one um they have a solid defensive rebounding rate that's been actually better for them in big 12 only games which you know very small sample size they've been top three in the big 12 there um and they have the 11th ranked effective field goal percentage defense nationally although that's a weird one because it's only been ninth so they've in big 12 only games so they're three big 12 games they're middle of the pack and effective field goal percentage defense but overall nationally they're 11th so is. They're middle of the pack and effective field goal percentage defense. But overall, nationally, they're 11th. So is that just a product of the schedule that we kind of talked about? Or did they just, you know, play a couple teams that maybe got hot or something like that? They've also been one of the best transition defenses in the country. So that'll be interesting. Kansas has been a good transition offense. You look at the offensive side of the ball. This has been an elite offensive rebounding team, right? Like that's the positive positive even though maybe they don't have a ton of offensive power from their four or five men

Starting point is 00:10:28 unless they're playing lucocious at the four which they will do at certain times but they have been an elite offensive rebounding team they don't turn the ball over so like they're a good possession team though again this is one of those things where in their three big 12 games they have been turning the ball over um their're top 80 in two-point offense nationally but again in conference only games they're bottom four and they don't really get the ball stolen or blocked but again it's hard to kind of parse out the numbers and be like how much is that a schedule or you look some of the big 12 numbers they're not as good but it's also a small sample size and when you look at where they've struggled this is one of the lowest free

Starting point is 00:11:02 throw rates offensively in the country though ironically they're still like right around where kansas is um shooting free throws horribly when they get there just 62.8 percent foul line so do keep that in mind if this is a close game late if kansas ends up being down late and you have to foul them on paper they have not been a good free throw shooting team so far this season uh and then in big 12 games they've just kind of struggled shooting at every level and have turned it over too much. All right, let's get to our matchups of the game players to watch. This is Locked on Jayhawks.

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Starting point is 00:12:50 about all the college football playoff locked on college basketball gets ready for the weekend ahead in college hoops as well all right top matchups of the game number one is rebounding cincinnati is in the 95th percentile nationally in offensive rebound rate they crash the offensive glass they're good at it they're also solid on the defensive end uh 71st percentile nationally in offensive rebound rate they crash the offensive glass they're good at it they're also solid on the defensive end uh 71st percentile nationally but the offensive rebound is is really where they get you and that's typically the trait of tough teams um in the case of cincinnati it's sometimes also the case of teams that aren't great shooting teams where it's like we have to do this like i think back to some of those west virginia bob huggins press virginia

Starting point is 00:13:23 teams they forced turnovers and they weren't great shooting teams even though they usually would have like a guard or two who were good shooters um or good scorers but they just rebounded the crap out of the ball cincinnati is a very good rebounding team kansas has to come ready to battle right if you come out with the lack of energy which we've seen kansas do in some wins we've seen them do in some losses where maybe in the first half, they come out with that lack of energy. You're going to get punked on the boards in this game. You have to come ready to play mentally to get you ready to play physically because this is going to be a physical game inside.

Starting point is 00:13:55 You have to box them out. You have to prevent them from dominating on the glass. Cincinnati's in the 91st percentile in second chance points per game. And because this is an identity and a strength for cincinnati you're not going to just totally limit them from getting on the offensive glass but can you hold them to one of their you know lower numbers of the season and can you get some offensive rebounds yourself to get extra possessions on your end and uh if you can hold your own and get some offensive boards yourself to try and limit you know what typically is the cincinnati strength and more neutralize it i think you'll be in good shape and here's the

Starting point is 00:14:29 proof all four of cincinnati's losses this season are to teams who rank top 100 in offensive rebounding rate on the season the bad news for ku is that they don't they rank outside the top 100 in offensive rebounding rate but the good news is that they've been much better as Kansas since the Creighton game in terms of offensive rebounding. Right. And you look at it on the season. I'm trying to see what they had in the Arizona State game. So, yeah, in the Arizona State game, they had their second best offensive rebounding game of the season. The UCF game, they had their best offensive rebounding game of the season. So that's your last two games. You had your best offensive rebounding game of the season the ucf game they had their best offensive rebounding game of the season so that's your last two games you had your best offensive rebounding games the missouri game was your third best even though you lost the game the nc state

Starting point is 00:15:10 game was your fourth best by offensive rebound percentage that means what if you're talking about nc state missouri so what four of your last five games you have had four of your best offensive rebounding games of the season so even even though Kansas overall this season doesn't rank great on offensive rebounding, there's surely progress there. They're getting a lot better, and that has to make you feel a little bit better about this matchup. Number two, can you space the floor and score against a team who plays good defense and has legit shot blockers, but really the main shot blocker in Aziz Bandago? Are they going to sag in the paint against KJ Adams?

Starting point is 00:15:48 And for a team with a good defense already in Cincinnati, is that going to be a death nail for KU if they do? Plus, Cincinnati already has that good interior defense. They're in the 84th percentile for preventing paint points so far this season. Teams are shooting just 56.5 percent at the rim against them but you know kansas is still going to need to find a way to score inside to be an efficient offense uh i think both in general and just kind of how they want to play like they want to be a team even if they're playing a team who has good shot blockers they're not going to stray away from

Starting point is 00:16:19 their identity they're still going to go inside and try to get points there. And all four of Cincinnati's losses have been their worst four defensive games by points allowed per possession. All four of their losses, they've given up 102 points per 100 possessions or more. And all of their wins, they've held teams to 97 or below for points per 100 possessions. So there's a gap there. You have to find a way to be an efficient enough offense against a good defense and uh you know kansas the good news they've only been held to 97 or less points per 100 possessions twice this season bad news both those are losses to missouri and creighton teams who were on the road where they condensed the paint so we'll see what

Starting point is 00:17:00 happens here against cincinnati but can you find some easy buckets? Then number three is hitting from the mid-range for Kansas. This is not an ideal way to play offense in, I think, today's day and age of basketball in general, analytically inclined, right? Like, to give you an idea, Kansas actually ranks in the 81st percentile nationally right now in mid-range two-pointers. They're shooting 41% on mid-range two. So that's, you know, one of the top fifth, I guess you would say, percentages in the country. But even then, that means it's 41%, which is one of the better numbers. So think about it this way. A three-pointer is worth one and a half times what a two-point shot is worth, right? This is basic math. So theoretically, if you shoot 50% on two-point shots, that is the equivalent of shooting 33% on two-point shots,

Starting point is 00:17:45 that is the equivalent of shooting 33% on three-point shots, right? You take three three-pointers, you make one of them on average. That's worth three points. You take six three-pointers, you make two of them on average. That would be two of six, 33%. That's six points. What's the equivalent to that, right? Six two-point attempts.

Starting point is 00:18:02 If you make 50%, that's three of six. That's also six points so 50 equals 33 in that math game that means you have to shoot 50 on twos right to equal 33 on threes which is the national average so if you're shooting 41 on mid-range shots which is actually a good percentage then the the three point equivalent is what like 27 something like that so you know that's why people go away from mid-rings. Now, there's still the art of the game where it's like, but if you completely stop taking them,

Starting point is 00:18:31 then you become more predictable in how teams defend you, right? And if you still get a wide-open mid-range shot, those shots are going to go in at a higher clip than 41%. So that didn't mean to get too much into the weeds of, like, the analytics of this stuff. But the fact of the matter is Cincinnati does a good job at the rim. They do a good job chasing you off the three-point line. And opponents, 16% of opponents shot attempts against the Bearcats in conference-only games have come from mid-range.

Starting point is 00:18:59 The national average there is 11%. So you can see that teams have to take typically more mid-range shots against Cincinnati than the national average, right? And so there is good news there for KU in that they are shooting, you know, much better than the national average in terms of their mid-range two-point percentage, which, by the way, did you know DeJuan Harris is shooting 70% in the mid-range so far this season?

Starting point is 00:19:21 So congrats to him. Maybe he'll be part of the players watch. Maybe not. Let's find out next. This is Locked on Jayhawks. This episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel. From big upsets to game winning drives, the NFL playoffs are better with FanDuel

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Starting point is 00:20:13 That is FanDuel.com. Make this playoff season unforgettable with FanDuel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL and the Locked On Podcast Network. Finishing things up on this episode of the show with players to watch for the Jayhawks against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Again, game on Saturday. We'll have a recap for you out this weekend also.

Starting point is 00:20:34 And then next week, we'll be talking more KU basketball as we get ready for the Iowa State game. That'll be a big one on Wednesday. But we'll also talk a little KU football with some of the strengths and biggest questions remaining for ku football as their transfer portal season kind of coming to a close here before the start of the i guess second semester and before the start of spring football and everything here so as far as our player matchup for kansas and cincinnati i think there's certainly a couple of interesting ones. I find

Starting point is 00:21:05 the one between Bendigo and Hunter Dickinson very interesting because you have this guy in Bendigo who's a really good defender on the interior. And Hunter Dickinson was held pretty much in check in the Lawrence meeting and obviously didn't play in the Big 12 tournament meeting between these two. So I think that'll be a very interesting one um i also think the the battle on the wing is going to be super interesting right if if since that he's playing their their i guess big lineup you would call it with dylan mitchell at the four and simon's lucocious who's six foot eight at the three and six foot six dan skillings at the two just in general like how does shaquille moore guard a six foot six dan skillings how does a zig mayo guard a six foot eight simus lucosius if

Starting point is 00:21:46 those are potentially the matchups um but i am going to go with kj adams versus dylan mitchell because i think there's i don't know a lot of maybe like similarities you would say in this matchup here like these are two guys who are you know athletic wings who get they don't always score the most points but it's like when they do a lot of them are like these these very energetic crowd-changing dunks they're both guys who are seen as very good defenders um they're both guys who um i think in the case of dylan mitchell he has a little bit more shooting he has a little bit more offensive pop a little bit more ability to drive in his game whereas with kj i think you have a little bit more passing in his game. Obviously, Mitchell's the better rebounder of the two as well,

Starting point is 00:22:27 although KJ's rebounding has been definitely better over the last two games. So we'll see if that's a trend that can continue because that would be a game changer for both him and for Kansas. But they're both players that, you know, make a lot of winning plays, do a lot of winning things, but also, you know, certainly can at times lead to offensive spacing issues for both teams so how do both coaches work around that how do both coaches work to that on the defensive end of the court you know we saw when when kansas um felt comfortable leaving basically a player open

Starting point is 00:22:56 and sincere harris in the west virginia matchup that they were just like let's throw flory out there and have him be a rover and a defender in that way. So maybe we even put Flory slash KJ versus Dylan Mitchell, because maybe that's something they do. And they just say, hey, we're just going to rove off of Dylan Mitchell with Flory when he's in there and just let him be a game wrecker on the defensive end. So I think that'll be a very interesting matchup with both ends of the court, because I think there's certainly some similarities there. All right, that'll do it for this episode of the show with Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:23:24 You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page. We'll be back for a KU Cincinnati recap this weekend. See you then with LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks at Cincinnati Bearcats: MOMENTUM up for grabs in the Big 12

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