Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs: Hunter Dickinson & Ernest Udeh Square Off a Second Time

Starting point is 00:00:00 No KJ Adams, but Kansas will look to take down TCU. We preview the Jayhawks and the Horned Frogs on today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day, and thank you to the everydayers catching each and every show.

Starting point is 00:00:32 On today's edition of LOJ, we're going to be going over a KUTCU preview, getting into our top headlines of the game, our TCU scouting report, our matchups of the game, players to watch, and so much more. KU will be without KJ Adams. Obviously an interesting matchup with Ernest Uday, a former Jayhawk going up against Hunter Dickinson, the guy who was brought in to kind of replace him. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by GameTime.

Starting point is 00:00:58 Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase with game time and the stakes on tcu six o'clock tip happening in fort worth road game for ku on a wednesday night action i feel like it's been like eight years since ku last played maybe it's because there was all that nfl action in between there was the college football national championship monday night then you had tuesday it felt like so long since ku has last played played, you know, but they're going to be playing in this one again with no KJ Adams, even despite the fact that it's been 10 years since their last game. KJ is not healthy between now and the last game, but Bilsav said on a recent

Starting point is 00:01:35 Hawk Talk that he expects him to be out, I think it was three to five games, three to four games, I forget the exact number, but I know three was the first number in itself. If you would include the KU State game as the first one of those then they'll mean tcu would be second that would mean houston would be third and then you're looking at you know is he out another week past that point but certainly out tonight what does that mean how does that affect the matchup we'll get into that here in a moment uh also the other headlines for this one kansas trying to bounce back on the road because they did lose their most recent road game but before that we're starting to show some positive signs in playing better on the road winning their last two at Cincinnati and prior to that at UCF and kind of a walloping win for KU so can they get back to playing well

Starting point is 00:02:14 on the road and and just kind of trying to stay within striking distance of the top of the league if they want to win the Big 12 they got serious work to do this week right winning on the road at TCU and then beating Houston who's currently undefeated in Big 12 play they got serious work to do this week, right? Winning on the road at TCU and then beating Houston, who's currently undefeated in Big 12 play. Those two things would go a long way in you remaining in this Big 12 title race because right now you have two losses, Houston has zero, right? So you have to kind of keep up with the Joneses, and that doesn't even include the teams in front of you, like Arizona and Iowa State, for instance.

Starting point is 00:02:40 From TCU's perspective, they're trying to build up some momentum. They just won at Baylor. If they get a win over Kansas at home after they won at Baylor, they're going to feel like they're headed in the right direction, especially from their NCAA tournament chances. Right now they're sitting with seven losses on the season. They need to start winning some games if they want to make the NCAA tournament. On the season, you look at the TCU scouting report,

Starting point is 00:03:01 they come in at 10-7 on the year. They're 3-3 in Big 12 play, and there's three wins over Big 12 opponents. They had a one-point victory over Kansas State, which was an ugly game, 63-62. They beat BYU by four points, and then they won at Baylor that most recent game by three. The losses, it came at Arizona by nine points, certainly a respectable loss there. At Houston, respectable team to lose to, but lost by 19, got blown out. And then they lost at home against Utah, who is not expected to be super good this year, but has snuck up on a couple teams in the early going.

Starting point is 00:03:38 And they lost that one by eight. Now, you think about TCU the past couple of years, and I think it's been interesting. Jamie Dixon, their head coach, the past couple of years, and I think it's been interesting, Jamie Dixon, their head coach, the past couple of seasons, I would really say the past three seasons when they had Mike Miles and some of these different guards, they were a really athletic team that had a lot of lengthy wings. They would crash the glass, they'd play tough defense, and they would really play a physical brand of basketball

Starting point is 00:04:02 that was athletic, that was speed-based. Well, this team is is different than that and and i think some of the tcu teams that were before those recent you know three years of play for them were different than that too and it feels like this is kind of another style shift for them this is a team that's playing really slow like they don't they don't get out in transition as much right they're a little bit slower with this year's team um the personnel they have a six foot two guard invasion alette he is averaging 11 and a half points 1.2 steals per game he is really struggling offensively i

Starting point is 00:04:30 know he's averaging 11 and a half points per game but he's only shooting 39 from the floor and only 26 from three so uh he's not somebody who typically is going to score points in a very efficient number then you have noah rey, who's a 6'3 guard, and he is somebody who can score them an efficient number. He had a 21-point game against BYU. He had a 23-point game against Arizona. And basically the games where he's shooting threes well, like he's a 32%, 33% three-point shooter,

Starting point is 00:04:59 so he's a decent three-point shooter, but he's not like a great three-point shooter. But in the games where he does shoot threes well, both those games he hit three threesrees he was uh you know three five three of six and three um he's able to go off he has some other parts of his game that allow him when he's shooting threes well he can kind of go off so that'll be something to watch in this one they have a six foot six wing in trezarian white only 185 pounds uh from north carolina willington he got like 20 a game last year before transferring in.

Starting point is 00:05:26 He's averaging like nine and a half points per game, 1.4 steals per game. And he shot it well from three, about 37% from three. So far this season, Brendan Wenzel is six foot eight. He's like 215 pounds. He's kind of a three,

Starting point is 00:05:38 four man who plays the four for them. He's had a really good game against Baylor 17 and 5 for him on the season he averages nine points three and a half rebounds and he's shooting like 46 percent from three point range so um honestly in a game without KJ Adams maybe more reason to even play a guard to guard him at the four could make even more sense knowing that their four man and Lentzel can shoot threes at a very high rate then you look at the center position for tcu obviously everybody will recognize the name of ernest uday six foot eleven 260 pound junior he is uh getting about eight points over eight rebounds per game he's also averaging one and a half steals and 1.7 blocks per game and that's in 28 minutes per game he's also shooting 61 from the floor so he hasn't

Starting point is 00:06:21 been you know this dynamic offensive player but he's rebounding well he's defending very well uh he's he's kind of you know getting into that form of what you expected him to be this rim running defending big man uh he'll also rotate out for six foot nine 230 pound freshman malik diallo uh they also will use a six foot six wing in Micah Robinson, who's got good size, 37% from three. They've got, speaking of good size, 6'7", 245-pound David Punch, which is a perfect last name for him. Just to institute, like, he's this tough player, gets a good rebound, good rebounding numbers.

Starting point is 00:07:00 And then they have two pieces who have kind of struggled shooting but might play, 6'8", Isaiah Manning, and 6'5", Jace Posey. Now, what they've done well so far this season for TCU, they have a top 30 defense, according to Ken Palm's defensive efficiency. They've been good at forcing steals. They've been good at turning opposing teams over. So Kansas has to be strong with the basketball. They don't send teams to the free throw line very much. That is a good kind of mix to have where if you're getting steals

Starting point is 00:07:24 but not fouling a lot, I guess it's not sending teams to free throw line. So they might be fouling on reach-ins, but it's not sending them to the free throw line at the very least. One thing that's interesting, though, teams have only shot 29.5% from three-point range against TCU this season, but they've given up a lot of attempts. And typically when you look at it and it's like, oh, is is doing a good job you know defending the three-point line one of the big ways to you see that is that oh but they're not giving up many threes right which usually correlates with hey if you're not giving up as many threes they're probably not as many open threes you're not giving up and also like you're

Starting point is 00:07:57 doing a good job emphasizing that on the defense vet the fact they're giving up a lot of three-point attempts tells me that teams are getting open ones against them, a good variety. They just haven't gone down. And the other thing I typically look at when I'm like, okay, a team is doing a good job defending the three-point line or the three-point percentage against them is bad, is do they have a lot of length? Do they have the ability to challenge a lot of shots? Because if you challenge three-point shots with a lot of length, that's going to help. Well, 6'2 guard, 6'3 guard, I guess 6'6 on the wing, 6'8 on the wing. I don't know. It's not like that unearthly.

Starting point is 00:08:29 So there is a part of me that wonders if TCU at some point here is going to be due for a negative reversion to the mean on their defensive three-point numbers that teams are going to start shooting well from three against them. And I bring that up as well because it feels like Kansas is due for some good three-point shooting themselves uh they they did pretty well against kansas state but kansas on the season is only shooting like 28 from three-point range in big 12 only games and you might not think kansas is that good of a three-point shooting team they're still better than that right like last year they were not a good three-point shooting

Starting point is 00:09:02 team they're still shooting like 33 from three so there is a reversion to the mean coming at some point here for kansas from three-point range does it happen in one game does it happen over the stretch of three weeks where they just shoot above average and it rises up right i don't know but i do wonder if this could be a reversion to the mean game for both sides where it kind of comes together that'll be something interesting to watch now when you look at tcu what they do well offensively uh they're solid and not turning it over on that end i would say they're above average in offensive rebounding so not quite as elite as where they have been in years past but they're still at least you know fine at it um and then in big 12 only games they are hitting their threes they're 34.7 percent from three-point range in big 12 only games that is the third best

Starting point is 00:09:42 in big 12 play now what tcu struggles with best in Big 12 play. Now, what TCU struggles with offensively overall on the season, they're ranked outside the top 150. So they have really struggled on the offensive end. They've been a bit better in Big 12 play, though, going back to that three point shooting. They have not been a good two point shooting team. They're shooting under 49% on two point shots this season. they are also one of the 15 worst teams in the country in free throw shooting percentage so they're not capitalizing when they get to the free throw line they're not shooting twos well either so they really have to shoot threes well which again they have in big 12 play but it's a little bit tougher to rely on

Starting point is 00:10:19 that when your overall sample size this season says that hasn't as much been the case uh defensively like i said they have been good top 30 nationally but if you look at big 12 only games which it is a smaller sample size it is just six games so maybe you take the overall more than just those six games you could also view it though and say well the six games matter more because they're against more consistent better competition i don't know but they have been below average nationally in their two-point defense in big 12 only games and if you look at those big 12 only games tcu ranks just 15th of the 16 teams in the big 12 in two-point defense they're allowing 56 on two-point shots and they have overall been a lower half defense by defensive efficiency in conference only games uh the last one they also

Starting point is 00:11:04 don't really shoot a lot of threes, and they give up a lot of attempts. So going back to the idea of the three-point stuff, even though they're shooting it well in conference-only games, they're not taking a ton of them, and teams are getting a good amount off. So we'll see what that means for this matchup between Kansas and TCU. Let's get into more specific matchups that could determine the game.

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Starting point is 00:12:25 Don't wait. Take your game to the next level with prize picks. Prize picks run your game. Thank you to every dayers catching each and every show. Thank you to you for listening. Don't forget to check out Locked on College Football for a recap of everything that's gone on post-national championship game or Locked on College Basketball as I guess now officially from the collegiate perspective,

Starting point is 00:12:44 we are in college basketball full-on season. At KU, we're always on college basketball is i guess now officially from the collegiate perspective we are in college basketball uh full-on season okay you were always in college basketball season but you know the the wider masses are uh now officially uh there okay matchups of the game kansas and tcu number one get out in transition if kansas is playing small which they're going to have to more without kj Adams, right? Even though I know AJ Storrs like the same height as KJ Adams. But like, it's this, for me, when you say playing small, it's more about the style of play. Like, are you playing four guards versus, even though KJ is the same height as AJ Storrs,

Starting point is 00:13:19 it's like you're playing two bigs, right? But anyway, if you're going to be playing small more, it behooves you to get out and transition more, right? If you're going to be playing small more you it behooves you to get out and transition more right if you're faster if you have more players that can operate in transition duh you want to be in transition more right and kansas has been good all season long in scoring in transition um they average a good amount of points in transition per game but so far in their conference games the transition numbers have dipped a pretty good amount for ku and part of that is the opponents right um you're playing teams in big 12 play like your cincinnatis or

Starting point is 00:13:50 iowa states right teams that are connected on the defensive end teams that are going to do a better job of playing transition defense like that's part of it but ku does need to get back to that and enter tcu who's given up around 11 fast break points per game i know that doesn't sound like a lot but it is it puts them in the bottom third basically the bottom 28 of all of college basketball so they haven't been too hot at preventing opponents in transition play so back to ku if they're playing small which they're probably going to do more than without KJ Adams now there's not a guarantee how much more because we just saw Flory play whatever 25 minutes

Starting point is 00:14:29 against K-State but AJ Storr is a much better player in transition when he's able to get downhill I think AJ Storr is you know I don't always trust AJ Storr uh shot selected selection in the half court I usually trust his shot selection in the full court or in the uh transition play because he's usually good at those shots when you look at rylan griffin and aj store or i'm sorry not uh aj store when you look at rylan griffin and zeke mayo both of them can hurt teams with their transition three-point play right and so there are reasons that if you're playing small these guys are playing more minutes that's gonna hurt you and i've mentioned this before.

Starting point is 00:15:05 Hunter Dickinson is an excellent fast break starter, an excellent outlet passer that starts those fast breaks. Right. So there's reason to believe Kansas can get back to that score here. Stay away from the half court defense where, again, their top 30 unit nationally and get out in transition. Number two is make your corner threes. Tcu gives up a bunch of corner threes but they're allowing you know not a super high um percentage overall on the season from three point range from the corner they are allowing a pretty high percentage of threes this season so uh teams are shooting over 36 percent from the corner from three against tcu it's the above the break threes where teams have struggled against the horn frogs and t, it's the above the break threes where teams have struggled

Starting point is 00:15:45 against the Horned Frogs. And TCU is allowing a rate of corner threes at a top seven percentile nationally. Basically, they are one of the highest numbers of the amount of shots teams are getting against them coming from the corner. So you have to be ready to shoot corner threes when you play TCU. Well, Kansas has been below average in the amount of corner threes they're taking. Without KJ Adams, maybe that's something that can go up, right? Maybe that's part of it. And the thing is, Kansas is actually, even though they haven't shot necessarily a super high volume, they've shot them well when they've shot them. Kansas is really struggling from the above the break threes. Kansas is only shooting 26% on above the break threes right now this season but they've shot them at almost a 36 clip from the corner so far this season now overall kansas

Starting point is 00:16:32 has been pretty ice cold in big 12 play they're shooting below 30 from three in big 12 play but you're going to get chances from the corner you need to take advantage for what is worse zeke mayo does lead kansas in corner three point attempts per game at 1.8 per game he's shooting them at 36 percent so that's a pretty good number but no one else for Kansas is getting more than 0.8 per game so somebody's gonna need to see a couple corner threes go up in this one number three is contest shots at the rim just don't give up easy layups the reason why TCU has been horrendous honestly at uh shooting at the rim like that's not hyperbole i'll get into the numbers here in a second you don't need to block a bunch of shots if you block them great but you don't need to block or alter a bunch of shots just be

Starting point is 00:17:14 there and make them shoot over you don't foul them you don't have to get a block yet if you do great just make them shoot over you because they have really struggled here on the season tcu ranks in the top quarter of college basketball which there's like 360 something teams so basically that means your top 90 nationally in the amount of field goals that they get being shots at the rim the problem so even though they're shooting a lot of them the problem in big 12 play tcu is only shooting 50.8 percent on shots at the rim that puts them in the first percentile nationally you might not understand the percentiles and when i throw those numbers out there i apologize if you don't basically this is what it means if they're in the first percentile 99 of college basketball is better than them during conference play and shooting shots at the

Starting point is 00:18:06 rim so like they have been basically as bad as it gets shooting at the rim okay um and even if we extend it out to full season stats and we further ourselves from just the six game sample size of play they're still only in the 18th percentile shooting at the rim so like they're still not good don't foul don't give up wide open layups don't give up easy bunnies you know be there to contest um but don't foul them and just make them go over you okay uh who are players to watch though what's our player matchup we'll get to that next this is locked on jayhawks today's episode of the show is brought to you by Talkspace. Therapy is a game changer. It can help manage stress, improve sleep, and communicate more effectively.

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Starting point is 00:20:02 coming into your Thursday morning. So stick around after the game. Usually comes out 30, 45 minutes, I would say, after the game ends. So be on the lookout for that between KU and TCU. All right, players to watch for this one. Let's start with our player matchup. We mentioned Ernest Uday, former Jayhawk, Hunter Dickinson. There's just too many storylines, but also two good players here

Starting point is 00:20:22 and an interesting matchup of Hunter, who's this great offensive center, versus Ernest, who is this great defensive center. So when you look at Uday, he rates really highly on a lot of metrics in terms of his defense. His stats look good. The eye test looks good. He's lengthy. He has a super long wingspan.

Starting point is 00:20:39 He's a good defender, right? And Hunter Dickinson, obviously, is a very talented offensive piece coming off an excellent game against Kansas State. So can Uday bother Hunter Dickinson in this one and, you know, make him less efficient? Because, as I mentioned, that Kansas State game was just the second time. And thank you, Everdairs, if you caught this in our takeaways on Monday episode, then you would have already known this but that was just the second time all season long that hunter digginson in big 12 play has shot 45 or better from uh the field which is like you know not not something like hey you want your big man shooting about 50 right you go back to last year's matchup these two teams met in allen field house and this is another interesting part

Starting point is 00:21:23 i think uh between this one was that matchup so kansas ends up winning that game 83 to 81 if you remember there was a controversial flagrant foul uh toward the end of the game it was called on ernest uday i believe it was was hitting um into hunter dickinson and dickinson had a phenomenal game finished with 30 points for the game 11 of 17 from two two of three from threes i don't really have confidence that he's gonna hit two threes right now the way that stroke's looking but he also had 11 rebounds in the game hunter was phenomenal for ku and that win over tcu um so you have that one and then on top of it like you just go back two years ago ernest dooday if kansas doesn't bring in hunter dickinson he might still be a jayhawk right now like i don't know who knows

Starting point is 00:22:03 what happens this past offseason right but the reason he left is because Hunter came in and he wasn't going to be in line for a bunch of minutes anymore, right? So there's a lot of, I think, wrinkles and storylines and tangling between these two players that I think is going to make it for certainly a very interesting matchup. Now, high on the go-off meter, we're going to go with Rylan Griffin. Why go with a guy who didn't take a shot last game played 12 minutes didn't score a point well uh we mentioned zeke mayo leads kansas in terms of corner threes per game rylan griffin's second on the team in 0.8 corner threes per game that's not very much obviously but if you take into account that he's playing less minutes than zeke and and you know if you look at maybe like per 40 numbers it gets a little bit closer in terms of how

Starting point is 00:22:44 often they're taken but here's what I find is interesting. Rylan Griffin shot corner threes very well, which makes sense. You think there's been a good shooter. Rylan Griffin is shooting corner threes at a 40 percent clip this season. So a team that gives up a lot of corner threes. I can't help but think that Bill Self and KU aren't going to be like, hey, Rylan Griffin, be ready to shoot. I don't know, three corner threes tonight or something like that, right? That would be a plus against a team who gives them up. And Rylan Griffin could easily go two of three on those opportunities in this

Starting point is 00:23:11 game. And that could swing a game like this on the road. Then in regards to TCU's transition defense that hasn't been very good this season, Rylan Griffin gets almost a quarter of his shot attempts in transition. Rylan Griffin ranks 93rd percentile this season in field goal attempts that come, the percentage of his field goal attempts, I should say, that come in transition, right? Just the percentage of the shots he gets upcoming in transition. So that's a majority of where his shots come up. Both of those are reasons to think he fits into this matchup pretty well. And I get it.

Starting point is 00:23:44 He didn't play much in the Kansas State game. But I think part of that was matchup dependent. Part of it was head scratching. And I don't have a great explanation. And that does scare me for this matchup. But like, I don't know what's going on totally. But also, a lot of it, I think, was as simple as K-State's playing two bigs. And when KU did try more of the smaller lineups, couldn't stop you know the two big lineup necessarily and so I think in this matchup where TCU is more playing you know

Starting point is 00:24:09 six seven six foot eight on the wing at the four position where it's a little bit more doable to play the four guards I think Ryland Griffin will get more minutes in this game and I think knowing some of the things TCU gives up he profiles really well as being somebody who should be able to have a strong game plus he's somebody from Texas this game is being played in the Dallas area. So a lot of reasons that I like Ryland Griffin in this one. And, you know, it's on a different scale, right? If I say Hunter Dickinson's on the go-off meter, that could mean 20 points. Ryland Griffin, probably not 20 points, but could it mean 10 points? Could it mean 11 points with three threes or something like that? Yeah. And I think that would classify as a big game and certainly to try to help KU get one on the road in Fort Worth.

Starting point is 00:24:46 All right. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcasts. Stay with us after the game for a post-game recap. See you then.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs: Hunter Dickinson & Ernest Udeh Square Off a Second Time

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