Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Given Four Seed in the Midwest Region, Will Play Samford in Round One

Starting point is 00:00:00 Tough matchups, tough draw in the first round for Kansas, but maybe overall, is it enough to make a run for the Jayhawks with a healthy team coming back? We break down the bracket for KU on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can give me a follow on Twitter at D Johnson Radio.

Starting point is 00:00:37 Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, what do you think we're talking about? It is the bracket coming out. It's always so beautiful to look at, to fill out, and then you'll be scratching here and there because your bracket will inevitably be no longer perfect within just a few games of the bracket or for some of the luckier ones of you, maybe later in the day on Thursday or Friday.

Starting point is 00:01:04 Anyway, so Kansas is brackets out. Their path is set. We're going to be breaking it down. Why it could be a tough draw for Kansas doesn't mean they're going to lose, but matchup wise stylistically could be a little bit tough for KU. So they're going to have to be on their A game thoughts on the pod and the region as a whole. And what would constitute a good tournament and expectations for KU heading

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Starting point is 00:01:35 slash lockedoncollegetermsandconditions. Apply. Let's start right there. Kansas was awarded the four seed in the Midwest region. And as part of the pods, they will not be playing in the Midwest. Now, if they make it through the first weekend and make it through to the second round or the sweet 16, then at that point, they'd be playing in the Midwest, which still is not like overly close for Kansas this year. But the pod, the first two rounds they're going to be playing in would be Salt Lake City, Utah,

Starting point is 00:02:07 which last time they were there, the comparisons of the 2018-2019 team to this team continue on. They got a four seed in Salt Lake City, and they did win that first game there against a team who I remember coming in Northeastern was a very hot three-point shooting team, but they just dominated them. They blew them out. They were way more athletic than them. Now, Samford, I think, is a lot more athletic than that Northeastern was a very hot three-point shooting team, but they just dominated them. They blew them out. They were way more athletic than them. Now, Samford, I think, is a lot more athletic than that Northeastern team was, but then things did not go well in the second round against Auburn.

Starting point is 00:02:32 And Samford is the 13 seed. I said on the show recently, thank you to the Every Dayers tuning into that one, you know, kind of what to look out for, who are teams you did, you didn't want to play as part of it for KU. The two teams that I really hampered on were McNeese State and Samford sure enough McNeese State is the 12th seed in this region so I mean if you win your first game there's a chance you can play in the second round though when I said that more so like if you're playing McNeese State in the second round might be a tough matchup but

Starting point is 00:02:58 it's like if you're playing a 12 in the second round can you really complain that said uh you did get Samford as the 13 29 and 5 on the season are the Samford Bulldogs. You immediately look at the schedule, and they lost 98-45 to Purdue in their first game of the season. Immediately, you go, okay, well, then this is going to be a cakewalk. Well, that was the first game of the season. Also, Purdue is better than Kansas is. It's just different. Styles make fights, right? And with Kansas, the style for them of what Kansas we know has kind of struggled in is teams who can shoot threes, teams who can space the floor and shoot a high volume of three. And for what it's worth,

Starting point is 00:03:39 Samford, their head coach is Bucky McMillan. They call it Bucky ball, which is basically, we're going to run transition really fast and we're going to launch a bunch of threes. So when you look at that from a stylistic standpoint, like that's not great for Kansas. Then on top of it, what are some other things that maybe Kansas has struggled with so far this season? Well, you could say, okay, when you have to guard like a athletic five or like a stretch five man, that's been a problem for Hunter Dickinson. He was a bit slower. Their star,

Starting point is 00:04:07 their, their main center. I don't know if this is the proper pronunciation, a core, a core, a chore, a chore. He's a six,

Starting point is 00:04:13 nine, 227 pound big man plays about 60% of their center minutes. He's shooting 45% from three this season at the center position, bit of lower volume, but he's still getting up like to a game. So that is not great as part of that. And then the other thing with matchups is how athletic are they now? You know, this isn't a power six team necessarily athletic. They play a lot of smaller guards in

Starting point is 00:04:36 the backcourt, but they're quick. And so like this is an athletic team. I wouldn't say it's like the most athletic team Kansas is going to play this year, but it's an athletic team. They play fast. They play to the athleticism. So that's not great. And then the last thing here is Kansas this season is 2-4 against teams who are top 25 turnover rate defenses. Samford ranks 16th in the country in turnover rate defense. So the biggest things to me were, were you playing a team who stretches it, shoots it well from three, and shoots a lot of them, and were you playing a team who stretches it, shoots it well from three and shoots a lot of them?

Starting point is 00:05:06 And were you playing a team who forces a lot of turnovers? They actually run kind of a press defense. Those are both things that hit for Kansas. Now, the good news for Kansas here is that some of those stats can be inflated a bit when you're not playing at a power six level. So like realistically, what if instead of them being the eighth best three-point shooting team in the country, what if they were playing a power six schedule, you know, the numbers would drop down or something like that to where they're like the 40th or I don't know, like for instance,

Starting point is 00:05:32 in the Purdue game, which again, a bit different, they have Zach Eadie down low. So you almost expect three-point shots, but they went five of 31 against VCU who just missed out on the tournament, but that's a good team. They were 8 of 26, 31%. So there's no guarantee it translates over, but certainly on paper, it does become a little bit scary. And it's not a guarantee. Kansas could have the worst matchup in the world in the first round, but they could still just be better than them because you have the better players

Starting point is 00:05:58 and the better this and that. It's just that when you have a bad stylistic matchup, it increases the chance that the upset could possibly happen. Now, I do remember the story back to Samford being kind of a pressing team, one that forces turnovers. I think it's helpful for Kansas that they have the long week in between. I remember a story back to Bill Self's first year at Kansas. They were four seed that year, actually, too.

Starting point is 00:06:20 Made it to the Sweet 16, and they played UAB in the Sweet 16. That UAB team upset their way through. I think they were 9 seed and upset the 1 seed in the second round to get through. And UAB that year was a pressing defense. And I believe the story goes Kansas in practice the week leading up, because you had the week in between for the Sweet 16, basically would practice playing offense against seven or eight defenders at a time. And by the time they got to the game, they were ready to go, and they beat UAB by 20 points, and they scored over 90 points in the game. So maybe playing a team like Sanford in their style is actually helpful to play them the first game of the week.

Starting point is 00:06:54 Now, it's not ideal that you got a Thursday tip. I thought that I saw that Spokane was supposed to be Friday, but I don't know, maybe I was wrong with that, or Salt Lake City. So I don't know. I guess that's not totally, or Salt Lake City. So I don't know. I guess that's not totally ideal, but you have the time off to prepare for it. So that is a positive. Obviously, the biggest effect on everything is probably just going to be Kevin McCuller and Hunter Dickinson's health.

Starting point is 00:07:15 But we go into the idea we've talked about so often that, okay, but Kansas is going to be better set up for the NCAA tournament because longer TV timeouts, longer breaks between the action, so that a team who doesn't have as deep of a bench, a thinner team is going to be able to weather that a little bit better in the NCAA tournament. If you're playing a team who's pressing you for 30, 40 minutes of the game, that's going to wear you down a lot more. So there's just another thing that you would chalk up to being like, yeah, that might not be great for this matchup.

Starting point is 00:07:44 All that being said, though, you know, Samford is still they've lost five games. They're still a team that ranked 81st on Ken Palm. Like this isn't it's not like a guarantee Kansas is going to lose this game. Kansas is going to be favored in this game, right? Kansas can be favored by a handful plus of points. But again, you go back to the idea that it is it makes the upset a little bit more possible when you have a good matchup here for Samford, and we see that all the time across the NCAA tournament. But yeah, I mean, the health of Kevin Kohler, the health of Hunter Dickinson,

Starting point is 00:08:13 those are going to be vital. Those are going to be huge for Kansas. We heard from Bills up last week. The plan or the hope was that both those guys are going to be back and ready to go this week for the NCAA tournament. How much of that was jockeying for better positioning in the NCAA tournament seating? You know, could you have argued Kansas should have got a three seed? I mean, you probably could have resume wise, but I understand it based on them fading at

Starting point is 00:08:35 the end of the season, based on the injuries, why they did get a four seed. Like, I don't think you're going to get that many big complaints from KU fans this year because they saw what the team looked like at the end of the year to where you can honestly make the case if it was just based on like how good are you forget the resume I don't know four seed maybe is even too high and that's important like on Ken Palm for instance the rank 22nd which would be more of a 60 that said the resume does matter and it absolutely should and so that's why you do end up a four seed but I guess my point being was I don't think you're going to see a ton of arguments maybe some people thought they should have been a three or

Starting point is 00:09:02 could have been a three but you're kind of splitting hairs there. I think it's a little less, I don't know, of anger, maybe, I guess you would say, from KU fans than last year when the region of death was given to them, right? And that was pretty brutal in how it was given this year, even though there are some tough matchups. It's not to that level, I guess, of what you would say. But yeah, I mean, it kind of all depends to me. Like, if you don't have Kevin McCuller and Hunter Higgins and not just back playing at a healthy or near healthy level, I guess, of what you would say. But yeah, I mean, it kind of all depends to me. Like if you don't have Kevin McCuller and Hunter Diggins and not just back playing at a healthy or near healthy level, I think it's going to be tough.

Starting point is 00:09:30 But I think what becomes interesting is playing teams that can stretch you in the case of this game and possibly in a second round game if you play McNeese State. I think Gonzaga, I don't know that they have as much of stretch fives necessarily. Gonzaga has played like Graham Ike a ton. He's more of like a post-up big, and they play another big with Ben Gregg. That might actually be a more favorable matchup there that you're talking.

Starting point is 00:09:52 That'll be interesting with how Hunter Dickinson deals with that, especially if he isn't 100%. But if Kansas is 100%, I definitely think there is going to be something to the idea. Every year there's that four or five seed that everybody picks against, and usually there's upsets by the 12 or 13 seeds usually it's not that one usually it's the one you low-key aren't picking like remember a couple years ago Kansas wins the title I forget if it was their four their five seed uh I guess it was the five seed was Iowa that year

Starting point is 00:10:17 and they just won the big 10 championship a bunch of people are picking Iowa to make it to the final four nobody was picking them to lose in the first round they're the one that lost in the first round and then some of the fives that were everybody's picks ended up getting through. So Kansas is going to be a popular pick to get upset here. That actually might be a good thing. Play with a little chip on your shoulder coming through for KU, but certainly it is a tough matchup for the Jayhawks. All right, let's continue on thoughts on not just the first round matchup, the pod and

Starting point is 00:10:40 the rest of the region for KU in the Midwest on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. First, this episode is brought to you by Nissan. This week's March Madness bracket highlight is brought to you by your friends at Nissan. Each week, we're picking one team that stands out, a team that's pushed it further than the rest, just like any of the all-new 2024 Nissan SUVs. These guys were able to take it to the next level. The Tennessee Volunteers can best be described as a pathfinder.

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Starting point is 00:12:30 need. Check out Fire TV channels on Fire TV and Alexa devices. To learn more, visit www.amazon.com slash LockedOnFireTV. Thoughts on the full bracket in the Midwest and the rest of KU's pod on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for joining us here on the show. We'll have plenty of tournament coverage coming at you this week here. So make sure you're subscribed to the show anywhere you get podcasts and they give every day or two, tune it into each and every one of those.

Starting point is 00:13:00 So let's start with that second round real quick. Like I said, with Gonzaga, you know, Gonzaga is a really good offense. They're one of the best offenses in the country. Defense has been okay. They aren't really hot right now.

Starting point is 00:13:11 From February 7th until now, they've only lost one game, but also playing in the West Coast Conference, like a little bit easier to do that than playing in the Big Ten. One thing, though, that's interesting about them, good two-point defense, which may be a bit of a struggle for KU there, though. But weirdly enough, like Gonzaga's a better team than McNeese State, but I actually like the matchup stylistically better if you're playing Gonzaga in the second round than McNeese State. And again, styles aren't everything. You could win or lose a game if you have a good or

Starting point is 00:13:37 bad style, but I do think that is kind of interesting because when you look at Gonzaga, like, they don't shoot a ton of threes. They rank in the 300s in terms of their three-point volume. They play kind of two-big basketball. With McNeese State, Will Wade, the former LSU coach who got in trouble for the NCAA stuff, he has a bunch of D1 transfer debt. Like Shahada Wells from TCU, remember him? They've got some dudes on that team. They're a very athletic team.

Starting point is 00:14:00 They're seventh in the country in three-point percentage. They are sixth in the country in turnover rate on defense. So that would be a bad matchup in the same way that Samford would be. Then when you scoot out to the rest of the bracket in the Midwest, I think when you were looking at, okay, what one seed is Kansas going to be paired with? I think everybody wanted to avoid UConn the way they're playing right now. They look like, to me, the best team or, I don't know, the best opportunity we've seen of a team to go back to back I guess Villanova that in between year they won the title 16 17 they got the one overall and then they won it again in 18 I don't know even with that team though it was like I I don't know

Starting point is 00:14:35 this UConn team I'm buying into more having the opportunity to win back to back than maybe I have since that Florida team uh but so you wanted to avoid them. You knew you were going to avoid Houston just because with the big 12. And also that would be great. I don't think you mind Purdue that much because it's almost like this idea. Purdue's a great team, but it's almost this idea of like, oh, they could lose before you get there. Like, honestly. But beyond that, it's like, okay, their big thing is having a big center in Zach Eadie,

Starting point is 00:15:01 right? Well, Hunter Dickinson's not Zach Eadie size. He's not, you know, seven, four, seven'5", 300 pounds. He's like 7'2". So like it more than when you see Zach Eadie go against a 6'9 guy where it's like a seven inch advantage, that's only two inches. That's 6'11 to 6'9". That's 7'1 to 6'11", right? Like at that point, you can maybe match up with it a little bit better. Now Purdue does shoot threes, second best percentage in the country, but a lot of it is centered on Zach Eadie drawing doubles, which you might not have to do with Hunter Dickinson. So again, Purdue, better team than you've been this season. And if you do end up making the

Starting point is 00:15:33 Sweet 16, and so do they, they're going to be favored, but it's not like a horrible matchup, I guess I would say for KU. And then when you look at kind of the bottom half of the bracket here, I do think there are some teams that stand out. Like I've been kind of a believer in Creighton this year. So we'll see what they do. I do think this Tennessee team is better set up for a deep run in March than a lot of other Rick Barnes teams have been recently because they do have the score in Dalton connect that like usually have great defense, but the offense isn't good enough. This year connect can kind of carry the offense still, though you do feel like, okay, are they going to Rick Barnes that way through this thing and get upset in the first or second round or something like that?

Starting point is 00:16:08 But I'm honestly not even going to worry about the bottom half of the bracket. And it's not even that I don't think there's good teams. There are good teams. Like I said, I think Tennessee is a really good team. I think Creighton is a good team this year and stuff. But it's just that if you make it to the Elite Eight, which is the only way you can play any of those teams from the bottom half of the bracket, number one, if you're in the Elite Eight, you can expect to play a good team.

Starting point is 00:16:31 It is far and few between that you play like a St. Peter's in the Elite Eight when that happened. And even then, if you do play a team who's like a 10 seed or an 11 seed or whatever in the Elite Eight, you start to get to the point where it's like, oh, they're hot. They're playing like a much better seed right now. You know what I mean? And then on top of that, it's like, if you make it to the elite eight, that would be the cherry on top of this point, because if this team makes the elite eight, it's going to feel like you're playing with house money. And it probably means you got a couple of big wins along the way to get to that point. So I guess what I'm saying here is

Starting point is 00:17:00 this don't really focus on, oh, I'm worried about playing this team. If we make the elite eight, because a lot of that stuff sorts itself out anyway and if you get to that point you're probably going to play a good team anyway so more so thinking about the top half of the bracket where that first pod a couple tough matchups for KU everything's winnable though and then possibly Purdue is a one seed which again Purdue's a really good team they'd be favored over you but I would like that matchup better than even though they beat UConn better than playing UConn again or playing Houston again, which we knew that wasn't going to happen, or honestly, maybe even playing over North Carolina, who's a team who has a couple good guards and three-point shooters on the outside.

Starting point is 00:17:33 All right, let's continue on here. What would be a good tournament? What should be the proper expectations for Kansas in this NCAA tournament on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks? First, this episode of the show is brought to you by LinkedIn Jobs. When you're hiring for your small business, you want to be finding all the quality professionals that you can right for the role. That's why you have to check out LinkedIn Jobs.

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Starting point is 00:18:26 have the time or resources to hire. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash locked on college. That is linkedin.com slash locked on college to post your job for free terms and conditions apply. So by the way, as I'm recording this, we're going to know about the KU women's basketball team in about half an hour, which that's coming at 7 central time. I don't know when you'll be listening to this.

Starting point is 00:18:51 So we'll have some news, and we'll talk about that on another episode coming up with Locked on Jayhawks, whether they make it or not, and what their draw is, and all that good jazz. Obviously hoping that they can get in as well. So we'll be keeping an eye on that for the KU women's basketball team. The big question here to finish things off on this episode of the show, what would be a good tournament? What would constitute a good NCAA tournament for KU?

Starting point is 00:19:12 What should be the proper expectations? Because I think this is a very interesting debate. Whenever you're a school like Kansas is, whenever you're a blue blood, because the expectation is always win a national title, make a final four. You know what I mean? Like have a banner year. Getting a Final Four is at least putting up a banner, right? So from that standpoint, that is always the expectation at Kansas,

Starting point is 00:19:34 and that's always the underlying expectation. But for what this team has been this year, do we adjust that expectation? Do we start to go, you know what? If they can make it to the second weekend, at this point, I would be happy with it. But then again, if you would have said that before the season started, which should the expectations be set when the season started, when you were preseason number one, again, it would have been final four or national championship. I'm going to kind of split the difference and I'm going to view it this way. If you can make it to the second weekend with a team that we have wondered if it's the worst team in the Bill South era. I think that's a success.

Starting point is 00:20:05 And then at that point, you're playing with house money. And that's kind of how I view it. If you get to a certain round where you feel like you were playing with house money, where you're like, you know, anything from here is the cherry on top, that constitutes hitting the expectations to me. And so from that standpoint, I would view it as, yeah, if you can make the Sweet 16 after all the tribes and tribulations, after all the ups and downs, I'm not saying it would be a resounding success because again, it is Kansas basketball. I'm not saying throw a party or anything, but I think going where we are now to where we are

Starting point is 00:20:33 expectations in the tournament, it's totally fair to expect them to get there. They're the highest seed of their pod. As much as I do have questions about some of the matchups or the best seed of their pod, I guess, if you want to put it that way. And then at that point, you could be playing a one seed or something like that. So that would be what I would say about that. But I wouldn't fault someone for saying, no, this is Kansas basketball. I don't care if they didn't have a great regular season. They won a title as a six seed in 1988. They went to an elite eight as a four seed in Bill Self's first year, right? I wouldn't fault someone for being like, we should always shoot for the expectations being the final four of the

Starting point is 00:21:05 national title, because this is Kansas basketball. But I think basically what I'm saying is there can be small wins along the way. And that if you do at least make a sweet 16, I don't think you can come away from it being like, that was an abject disaster would maybe be the way of saying it. All right.

Starting point is 00:21:17 That'll do it for this episode of locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere. You get your podcast, plenty more NCAA tournament coverage coming the rest of the week, including on our YouTube page. See you next time with LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Given Four Seed in the Midwest Region, Will Play Samford in Round One

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