Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Open 2024 Big 12 Tournament as an Underdog Against Cincinnati Bearcats

Episode Date: March 13, 2024

Kansas Jayhawks basketball plays Cincinnati Bearcats in the second round of the 2024 Big 12 Tournament. Preview of the game including KU being without Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson, Cinci injuries to Viktor Lakhin and CJ Fredrick, NCAA Tournament importance, matchups of the game, player matchups like KJ Adams vs Aziz Bandaogo and Hawks to Soar including Dajuan Harris and Johnny Furphy and more for Bill Self's team trying to get hot in March.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! RobinhoodRobinhood has the only IRA that gives you a 3% boost on every dollar you contribute when you subscribe to Robinhood Gold. Now through April 30th, Robinhood is even boosting every single dollar you transfer in from other retirement accounts with a 3% match. Available to U.S. customers in good standing. Robinhood Financial LLC (member SIPC), is a registered broker dealer.Amazon Fire TVFire TV recently created Fire TV Channels to deliver a constant supply of the latest videos from your favorite sports brands, all for free. That includes all of us at Locked On and most of the big pro leagues and college conferences as well. To Learn More, visit www.amazon.com/LockedOnFireTVNissanOur friends at Nissan have a lineup of SUV’s with the capabilities to take your adventure to the next level. Take the Nissan Rogue, Nissan Pathfinder, or Nissan Armada and go find your next big adventure. Shop NissanUSA.com.LinkedInThese days every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business. That’s why LinkedIn Jobs helps find the right people for your team, faster and for free. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/lockedoncollege. Terms and conditions apply.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, Kansas is an underdog in their second round matchup of the Big 12 Tournament. They'll be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. Give me a follow on Twitter at DJohnsonRadio. You can find our show here with Locked on Jayhawks anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show.

We are free and available anywhere you get them. And on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're previewing Kansas and Cincinnati. The Jayhawks come into this one as a dog. If I would have told you before the season started, Kansas would be the sixth seed, the Big 12 tournament, and they'd be an underdog in their first game. I don't know what you would have thought coming into that. So we'll start with the storyline, Cincinnati scouting report, match versus the game, Hawks to the Soar, all that and more on today's episode of the show, which is going to be a fun one.

So let's start right here with the KU Cincinnati preview. The opening line on FanDuel has Cincinnati favored by a point and a half. Now, obviously, there's a reason for that. If Kansas was at full strength, Jayhawks would be favored in this game. In fact, we can go to our handy-dandy friends over at Ken Palm and take a look. They don't really factor in injuries over the course of the season. It has Kansas as about a four-point favorite on a neutral court against Cincinnati. So, you know, it's about a five and a half, six-point swing without those guys. But that is the biggest storyline coming into this

game. Now, Cincinnati has injuries too, and that's a storyline on their part. Victor Lakin, who's been a good foreman, who hasn't had as good of numbers in conference play as non-con play, but he has missed like three straight games. He didn't play in their opener. C.J. Frederick, who's a good shooter, didn't play in the first meeting in Lawrence. He was injured then. Then he got injured again, I think, at another date. He hasn't played, and I don't know what the expectation is for him to play.

I don't know, to be honest. But with Kansas, obviously you're missing Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCuller, and every time on the broadcast during the Big 12 tournament, they flash up that graphic of all Big 12 first team. And it's like, well, these two guys, they're on the same team. They ain't playing. And that's certainly unfortunate for Kansas, but obviously as we talked about on a bonus episode,

thank you to the everydayers for tuning in to that, that the expectation is for both of them to be back for next week in the NCAA tournament. But this obviously has a big impact on KU in this game. It tightens the rotation even more. Now you only have seven scholarship players. Are we going to see Michael Jankovic for a handful of minutes? Are we going to see Dylan Wilhite for a handful of minutes if KJ and or Parker Brown get in foul trouble, right? Like those are things that are not that far away from happening. If, you know, somebody gets in foul trouble here, rolls an ankle here or there, you just hope that it doesn't happen at this point in time. But it does change the way KU plays.

KJ Adams becomes a small ball five. You have guards around it. You have longer leashes for players like Nick Timberlake and Marco Jackson. Does that give them more confidence in the case of Nick Timberlake? It did earlier in this year when Johnny Furphy was out for that Yale game and he had a big game. So what does that do in terms of this? And obviously this is very important for the NCAA tournament for both teams.

It's different levels of why it's important. From the Cincinnati perspective, they're a team that is viewed on, I guess you would say, the wrong side of the bubble. But if you win this game, I don't know, how much is this a resume builder? It would go down as a quad one win and everything. So I guess from that standpoint, you know, quad one wins don't speak. It just is a stat, right? But obviously you would think of it as a bit of an asterisk with KU being, you know, a little beat up in terms of how the committee would do it. Like in what I'm saying is that when they're looking at

best wins on the team sheet and they see Kansas, I don't know that they're going to give them full credit for it, though it would still be a good win for them, obviously. But they need to win this game if they want to make the NCAA tournament. Maybe there's still a shot that they can make it. I know Iowa State made it at 7-11 conference play a couple years ago and made it to the Sweet 16, so it is possible. But I think they really could use this one. From the Kansas perspective. You know,

they're starting to dip on some of these mock drafts. And you look at bracket matrix, it still has them in as the last three, I think some of these places have them as a four seed. And some of them that I'm as a four seed have them shipped off to Salt Lake City. Now we know what happened last time Kansas was a four seed last time they were shipped to Salt Lake City last time that they had to, you know, make that travel with a team that has been similar to this that we keep making the comparisons, 2018-2019. That's what happened to that team, and they got blown out in the second round by Auburn. So you obviously want to avoid that.

You want to be playing nearby in Omaha. We know this team has been so much better at home than on the road. If you're playing in Omaha, it's going to be more like a home environment for you should you get that. But you probably got to get into that three seed line to do that. Now, if you lose this game to Cincinnati, I think there's a real chance Kansas might end up on even the five line. I don't know, maybe even the six.

It depends how harshly the committee is going to judge Kansas for saying, you know what, we don't believe you. We don't think Kevin and Hunter Dickinson are going to come back next week. Versus if they do believe him, they still could get a four seed or a five seed if you lose this game. It just depends how they view that. But if you win this game, then at that point,

even if you lose the Baylor, like that's a quad one loss, there's a chance you still get a four seed or a three seed. And if you can win a couple of games, maybe you surface yourself into that three seed, which I think would be a lot more beneficial for KU. If they could get to that point, scouting report for Cincinnati,

they're 19 and 13. They went seven and 11 in big 12, regular. Easily could have been a lot better, though. They had a ton of close losses. They had eight Big 12 losses of their 11 and nine overall losses. They had another one in the non-con by five points or less. So if a couple of those turn their way, if Bill Self's their coach and they're winning all these close one- two possession games Cincinnati is a clear NCAA tournament team and that was the case when they met in Allen Fieldhouse Kansas won 74-69 they got off to a hot start Cincinnati chipped away and then Kansas was able to nearly kind of put it away and then they you know kind of stuttered a little bit late and let the score be a little closer than maybe it was with a couple minutes to go but

Kansas was 6 of 14 from 3 that was compared to Cincinnati going just 3 of 18 from 3. The Jayhawks also had 5 less turnovers. That did allow them to win, despite the fact that Cincinnati was dominant on the glass. The Bearcats grabbed 41% of their offensive rebounds compared to Kansas, getting just 20%. So they had basically doubled the offensive rebound rate. The individual standouts include Dan Skillings. He was excellent in Allen Fieldhouse, 16 points, hit some tough shots. Kansas got 23 points on seven of eight shooting from Johnny Furphy. So that's pretty good. And when you go back to that box score, I think this part sticks out. Obviously Kevin McCuller and Hunter Dickinson injured and out for this game. Kevin McCuller did have 20 points in the Cincinnati game.

He shot just 5 of 17, so he didn't have an ultra-efficient offensive game. Hunter Dickinson had just 10 points. So when you view it from that standpoint, maybe in this matchup you can be okay. But Simus Lukosius, who went for 31 points in their Big 12 opening round win over West Virginia, he was absolutely hot. He was just one of nine from the field, 0 of 6 from 3 in Allen Fieldhouse. I don't think you can expect that luck from behind the arc

for Lukosius in this game. What Cincinnati does well, defense and rebounding. For the defense, they were number three in defensive efficiency in Big 12 only games. The only teams that were behind Houston and Iowa State were the two best defenses in the country. So this is a very good defense. They're basically good at everything. Top 50 defensive rebounding rate nationally, top 40 in two-point defense, which was also the number one in Big 12 only games, two-point defense. They don't allow you to get off a ton of threes. They do a good job of not allowing you to get

shots at the rim and from three. So they make you take a lot of mid-range shots and they have a top 60 block rate even the things that aren't like as strong as those things are still like they're not bad at everything like even the stuff like uh for instance turnover rate and not fouling like they're not great at either of those they don't force a ton of turnovers but they're still like top 150 or like top 130 in some of these stack categories. It's like, OK, nationally, you're average or above average. And even the things that you don't do as well, which is a nice state to be in for the rebounding. I mentioned top 50 defensive rebounding rate.

They're top 10 on offensive rebounding rate. And in Big 12 only games, they are number one in those games. That said, obviously, if Lakin is hurt and out, that mitigates the strength a little bit because that's a 6'10 power forward you're playing next to a center. So it hurts you a little bit there. Still, though, they do have the goods to be a good offensive rebounding team. It's just maybe not quite as much with having that extra player. What they haven't done well, this has not been a great offensive team,

though if you're just going on what have you done for me lately, they are like the best offensive team because they scorched the Nets against West Virginia. Keep in mind, Mountaineers, not a very good defense. We saw that when they played Kansas, which Kansas hasn't been a great offense, and that was one of their best offensive games. They just lost because they couldn't stop West Virginia and a few things down the stretch. But Cincinnati coming into the game against West Virginia was 274th.

274th in three-point percentage. And in conference-only games, they were 14th of 14 teams in three-point percentage at under 30%. So there's two ways of looking at this. They're also not a good free-throw shooting team, hovering around the 300 mark in that area. They're bottom two in the Big 12 games and offense and everything. There's the way of looking at it that, hey, they're not a great three-point shooting team, but they're hot right now. There's the way of looking at it as, oh, they were as hot as could imagine, and they're not a good three-point shooting team.

That means there could be an ugly reversion to the mean in this game against Kansas. I don't know. We'll see. The personnel. Injuries to Lakin and Frederick that we kind of mentioned, but this is a deep team. They have one of the better bench scorings in the Big 12. Day-Day Thomas, 10.5 points per game, over three assists. He came into the Big 12 tournament only shooting 23.8% from three.

He went 7 of 10 against West Virginia from three. That sounds like something that would happen in Kansas, and maybe it just will. Jizzle James comes off the bench. He'll play the one and the two. Son of Edger and James, eight points, two assists per game. Good shot getter, can create his own comes off the bench. He'll play the one and the two. Son of Edger and James, eight points, two assists per game. Good shot getter, can create his own shot off the bounce. John Newman gets about 10 points, five rebounds on good efficiency all over.

Dan Skillings had that great game in Allen Fieldhouse. He leads the team at about 12 points, six rebounds per game. You got Seamus Lukosius, who is kind of a wing. They'll play him at three. They'll play him at four, especially now with Lakin out. And he went seven of 12 from three in their opening round game. He averages about 10 points, three rebounds, three assists, 37% from three. So good shooter. And then the center position, it's mainly Aziz Bandego, but he's backed up for a good amount of minutes by Jameel Reynolds.

Bandego's seven footer. He's more of the springy athlete type. He'll throw down dunks. Reynolds is the 6'11", 275 poundpound bowling ball big man with good touch around the rim and can actually shoot the basketball. Collectively, the two of them averaged 13 points, 12 rebounds, two blocks per game on nice efficiency at the rim in different ways. I think KJ is better suited to guard Bandago, but I do think that KJ might struggle in post-defense against Reynolds. But on the other side, KJ should be able to run past Reynolds whenever they want in terms of running some actions, but maybe a little tougher on Vandego.

All right, let's get to matchups and then Hawks to Soar on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. First, we are brought to you by eBay Motors. Passion, drive, and patience. What brings home the winning trophy is also what keeps your ride or die alive. eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to peak performance. From superchargers, roof racks, exhaust kits, LED headlights, and more. Whether in speed, power, or style, eBay Motors has got you covered.

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Let's start with number one, Kansas boxing out and rebounding. Cincinnati is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and in the Big 12. And now you're down Hunter Dickinson, who is one of the best defensive rebounders in the conference. You're down Kevin McCuller, who lately hasn't been a great rebounder since coming back from the injury, which I think those two things are correlated in the lack of explosiveness, but overall is a good rebounder for you. Well, Cincinnati's eight and one when they grab 45% or more of their offensive rebounds versus their 11 and 12 when they don't. So just don't let this be a takeover thing. It's another thing where like Cincinnati is going to get some

offensive rebounds. Just don't let it be a takeover stat. And for also for what it's worth, when Cincinnati gives up a 25% or higher offensive rebounding rate to the other team, they are eight and nine compared to 11, four on the other side. So get some offensive rebounds too, right? I mean, that is one thing like defensive rebounding to me is more about positioning, size, strength, being able to box somebody out, right? Like the acumen of knowing where the ball's going. Offensive rebounding, yes, there is still the acumen of knowing where the ball is going to come off and the IQ of, hey, the shooter, you know, usually shoots it long or short, and I'm going to, you know,

go this way or that way depending on what's going on. But a lot of offensive rebounding is more so. You'll see the better offensive rebounders aren't the big lurking centers. Those are the defensive rebounders. The better offensive rebounders are the springy athletes, the guys who can sprint in the lane and jump up, the guys who can jump past or out quick guys trying to box them out. And if you're playing a small lineup, maybe that's something you can take advantage of. Last year, KJ was actually a good offensive rebounder playing small ball five. He wasn't a good defensive rebounder. Furphy's been a good offensive rebounder. I don't know. Maybe there's something there for Kansas in

this game, but more so than anything, everybody's got a box out. It's got to be a team effort on the defensive glass. Number two, who steps up for Kansas in late shot clock and kind of need a bucket moments because that's the big thing for Kansas right now. I mean, offensively, this has not been a good offense for Kansas. You look at Ken Palm's adjusted offensive efficiency, they're ranked 47th in the country. It is one of the lowest ranked offenses of the Bill Self era. And that was even with Hunter Dickinson, who is one of the more refined post players offensively. That was with Kevin McCuller, who, yes, he's been struggling with efficiency while playing through the injury, but when he wasn't, he was a very efficient player from a bunch of different levels of scoring. And both those guys were kind of your, hey, we need a bucket or the shot clock's winding

down, just make something happen. Give it to Hunter on the post, or our easiest bucket is just getting Hunter a good angle or let Kevin McCuller drive or dribble or shoot a three. And like Furphy has been a very efficient, good offensive player, though he's in a bit of a cold spell right now, but he really hasn't shown a ton of being able to create off the dribble in half-court settings. He's been more of a spot-up shooter and a transition player, which is fine. I mean, those are very elite skill sets to have, and he's just a freshman. So, like, that stuff is going to get better,

whether it's in the NBA next year or sticking around in Kansas. But can you show any of that now? Can DeJuan Harris step up? And I would not be surprised if this is a game where DeJuan Harris scores like 15, 16 points because he kind of has to. Nick Timberlake, can you get a little bit of that from him? How about Omarco Jackson? We talked about the low key.

He's like leading Kansas in mid-range field goal percentage at this point. Like that's slowly kind of risen up, right? Can KJ Adams be someone who you just let him be if there's a bigger five man who's slower than him, be kind of a matchup nightmare and be able to drive into the rim I don't know who it's gonna be but somebody needs to for Kansas because right now it's hard to circle that guy and be like all right there's a five on the shot clock who are you giving the ball to to go create a shot you know I don't know what the answer is to that maybe we'll find out a little bit in this game just to add to this one I would say fire up more threes too. It's the perfect excuse lineup to do it. Cincinnati's

number one in the big 12 in two point defense. Okay. So you're, you're playing a good two point defense. You're playing small on jump, a bunch of threes. Don't shoot 15, 16 threes in this game. I know they haven't been going in lately, but maybe with an extra guard out there, maybe with an extra shooter. And it's like, okay, this hasn't been a great offense and you don't really have the inside scoring options as much anymore. What choice do you have? Just let it fly. Number three here is Kansas avoiding foul trouble. So this is one that it seems very obvious and it is when Kansas has seven scholarship players, but it's going to be easier said than done. And I think the guy that I'm most circling where it's like avoid foul trouble has

to be KJ Adams. I think the drop off, like hypothetically, if I don't know who's going to start the two, if it'll be El Marco, Jamari McDowell, I feel like it'll be El Marco. Then again, Jamari played, you know, more in that Houston game. Let's say that Nick Timberlake or El Marco Jackson gets in foul trouble. Okay. If you bring Jamari McDowell in like, is there that big of a drop off? I don't know. Like all those guys have kind of been struggling to emerge more than the other, like Timberlake, I guess at this point has been the best, but it's not like maybe a huge drop off. Okay. DeJuan Harris would clearly be one because then that just really strings you out. And then you're having to play on Marco Timberlake and Jamari McDowell probably altogether, which I

don't know if that would be ideal for Kansas, but with KJ, you know, then you're down to one center with Parker Brown. And I think there's a drop off there. And then you're one away from having to play a walk on. And I think KJ is going to have to be one of KU's best players and most important players in this game. So that's kind of the one you have to avoid that for. So you just have to avoid foul trouble like that.

That's kind of a non-negotiable if Kansas is going to win this game. Otherwise walk-ons are going to get in. But who knows? Maybe that would be fun in a different way, especially if Jankovic comes in and hits like a key three and it propels Kansas to win. And then they go on a run to the final four and it all started. The championship DVD or the final four DVD, whatever, starts with – do they even make DVDs anymore? Anyway, starts with Kansas was struggling in March until an unsung hero came through and knocked down a three and boom, there you go. The rest is history. Our player matchup

here is Johnny Furphy versus Seamus Lukosius. Both guys who can really stroke the ball, really shoot from the outside. Lukosius coming off that seven of 12 from three-point game with 31 points. Furphy's going to have his hands full defensively, but he was excellent in that first game against Cincinnati. He's going to get more eyes and more ears on him in this game for two reasons. One, because he had the 23-2, because no Kevin and Hunter Dickinson. So Cincinnati's going to be like, okay, well, now we really got to make sure we emphasize Johnny Furphy. So that one could determine the game,

but I think it'll be a really fun matchup between those two players. Let's finish up with Hawks. The sore KU players we think are set up to have a big game on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. First, we were brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Say goodbye to busted brackets because FanDuel lets you bet on every game of the tourney. Whether you're betting on a big upset or a one seed, it's time to go dancing on America's number one sportsbook.

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oh, Bill Self is an underdog, auto-fire that. Bill Self is getting eight and a half points at Houston, auto-fire that. Bill Self is getting six and a half points or five and a half points at Baylor, auto-fire that. They're getting a point and a half. So, I mean, I'm going to continue to roll with it, but I'm not going to advise you what to do. Pick what you want, but you can pick whatever you want.

Just visit fanduel.com slash locked on and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets. FanDuel, official sportsbook partner of the Locked On Network. Finishing up with Hawks to Soar here. KU players we think are set up to have nice games. You know, I do want to go Johnny Furphy. I am a little bit worried that there is the kind of shooting. I don't know.

He's been a little bit more cold lately over the last like three or four games, shooting the ball, maybe hitting that freshman wall. And so that scares you a little, especially too with how well he played against Cincinnati, which is a good defensive team. Like they're going to have way more attention to him this time. But I don't think Lukosius is a great defender. And if he's playing the four and Furfee's playing the four, which I think is kind of

the plan here, I think that's an avenue that he will be able to exploit. And it's almost like a little bit of, well, Kansas doesn't have many other options. So how about the guy who's projected to be a first round pick? How about we go to him? How about he steps up? How about we give him a lot of shots? Doesn't that seem to make sense? I'm going to Furphy for one. The other one I'm going to do with is DeJuan Harris. DeJuan throughout his career has had a really strong ability to know when to be a passer, when to be a scorer, when to be a defender. I think this year has tested him a little bit more and it's been a little tougher for him to kind of blur those lines a little bit. And I think part

of it is because of maybe the lack of spacing on offense or some of the struggles for KU, and it's been a little tougher for him to decipher. But he has still done it at times, and he was excellent at it last season. And I think he knows that he needs to score more in this game because he doesn't have as many options that can score around him. You're losing a bunch of points with Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCuller. I think DeJuan will get 12-plus points, maybe 14. It wouldn't surprise me if he gets 15 points in this game. And I also look at it, and I think that, you know, okay,

Cincinnati, you look at their shot charts, they're giving up mid-range shots, they're giving up floaters in the lane. Well, I guess you could throw KJ Adams in there too, but DeJuan Harris does like taking that floater. It hasn't always gone in this year, though. I think that maybe has actually been more efficient for him than actual layups. But yeah, I think DeJuan can have a good game for Kansas. And you have so few players that it's almost like everybody has to have a good game

for Kansas if they do want to win. So we'll be back to recap whatever happens in this game late on Wednesday night and hopefully preview the next game against Baylor or preview what would be next, which would be Selection Sunday coming up. So we'll be back for that. Make sure you subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page. See you next time with Locked on Jayhawks.