Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks Basketball Transfer Portal Target Deep Dive: Wichita State Guard Colby Rogers

Episode Date: April 11, 2024

Kansas Jayhawks basketball transfer portal target deep dive on Wichita State guard Colby Rogers. What would the sharp-shooting guard bring to the table for Bill Self and KU, scouting report and how he would fit in next to Dajuan Harris. Plus, areas where Kansas could have made themselves a lot better last offseason in the portal.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! LinkedInThese days every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business. That’s why LinkedIn Jobs helps find the right people for your team, faster and for free. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/lockedoncollege. Terms and conditions apply.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelFanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning GUARENTEED That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – win or lose! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. eBay MotorsFrom brakes to exhaust kits and beyond, eBay Motors has over 122 million parts to keep your ride-or-die alive. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to bring home that big win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

On today's Locked On Jayhawks deep dive into Kansas basketball transfer target Colby Rogers. You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can find me on Twitter at DJohnsonRadio. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show.

And on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're going over another one of KU basketball's transfer targets, doing a deep dive on Colby Rogers. The last player we did this on ended up like committing the next day. I don't know that that tracker track record is going to continue here, but we're going to start doing these a little bit more with players who at least there's been some reported interest to some level, who knows what exactly that is for Kansas.

We get into that, how we fit with KU and we'll finish up redoing last offseason to make things better for KU coming into this year. First, this episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel. Make every moment more. New customers join today, and you'll get $150 in bonus bets. If your first bet of $5 or more wins, just visit fanduel.com slash locked on to get started.

So who is Colby Ross? Well, Colby Ross is a guard who was just at Wichita State. Really good sharp shooting, scoring, shooting guard, kind of combo guard type from Wichita State. And why are we doing a deep dive on him? Well, I don't have a visit or anything like that. And, you know, don't necessarily have a reported offer out there. There was a report on March 26th, or I guess a tweet you would say,

from Tobias Bass of The Athletic that said, since entering the transfer portal, Colby Rogers has heard from Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Xavier, St. John's, Nevada, Memphis, USC. So a good list of schools there. But obviously there's been no new news, but you know, we got to talk about some targets, right? Off-season talk, baby. But I do think this kid would be a really good fit in a couple of ways for KU. So let's get into that. He is a

six foot four guard from Wichita State who averaged 16.4 points per game last season for the Shockers. Now didn't put up a ton else, mostly a shooter and a score 3.4 rebounds per game last season for the Shockers. Now, didn't put up a ton else, mostly a shooter and a score, 3.4 rebounds per game, which that's fine for a two-guard. 1.9 assists, that's not a huge number. One steal per game, okay, that's a solid number. 0.3 blocks per game, that's actually pretty good for a shooting guard. 40% from the field, 41% from three on 7.1 attempts per game. He was basically taking half as many threes as Kansas was as a team per game last season,

a little bit under that, but he was shooting 41% on them and about 83% at the foul line. So not great on two point shots, but most of his shots did come from three and he was electric from three and as a shooter overall. So prior to being with the Shockers, because he was with Wichita State for two seasons but one of the years he was red shirting back in the archaic day of when the NCAA made you sit out for transfer rules so he actually started his career at Cal Poly for two seasons I believe he's originally from like the northeast and he was the second leading scorer on Cal Poly both years. Then he transferred to Siena where he was all MAAC second team.

And then he transferred up to Wichita State where he had to sit out a year. And then this past year was the year that he put up over 16 points per game on 41% from three on high volume. How about some of the synergy numbers here for Colby Rogers, which makes him really of interest? 84th percentile as a pick and roll ball handler on a ton of attempts, over 150 attempts. So very good operating out of the pick and roll as a score. percentile in spot-up shooting, including shooting 45 of 96. That equates out to being almost 47% on spot-up threes. And when you're talking about guys who would come to Kansas and, you know, if you're Colby Rogers, you're the guy to score the basketball at Wichita State. You come to Kansas, now you have to play more off- ball. Now you, you know, and part of it is you're going to get open spot up looks, right? I mean, how many did we see Kansas miss

that they got open from Hunter Dickinson being guarded in the post or DeJuan Harris finding an open man and then they just clanked the three. Well, you got to be able to hit spot up threes. You got to play off the ball. That is something Colby Rogers still does well. He had 87% off, 47% on spot-up threes this past season for Wichita State. And part of that is him ranking in the 89th percentile in catch-and-shoot opportunities, where he was 86th percentile in guarded catch-and-shoot and 85th percentile in unguarded catch-and-shoot. You might be saying, okay, what is the difference between spot-up shooting and catch-and-shoot shooting? Well i don't have totally have an answer for you i believe that more

uh spot up shooting is you're just like waiting in the spot like imagine you're just standing there in the corner for the whole play and then all of a sudden finally a pass comes your way and you shoot it up right whereas with catch and shoot it's somebody passed it to you and then you shot it which I think you could still maybe take a dribble in between whereas I think with spot up shooting it's I don't know maybe nothing in between I might have those mixed up I don't totally know either way he was good at both if I add in the year he had at Siena, he is 82 of 182 over his last two seasons of college basketball and spot up threes. That is 45% on spot up threes over his last two seasons of college, um, in a pretty big sample size. So like this guy is just a knockdown shooter. He's okay. In transition, 47th percentile 50th in isolation so about average

there 68th percentile of screens if you work them off screens that can work too um but it's that jump shot that is tantalizing for what it could mean for Kansas overall he was in the 81st percentile on all of his jump shots including being 80th percentile on dribble jumpers so even if he has to take them off the dribble not an issue and he shot 37.5 percent on dribble three-point shots how many dribble three-point shots did we see Kansas be able to make this past year right it felt like all the at least limited amount of threes that they did make were off the catch right not really off the dribble not really creating them as much and that was something that Colby Rogers could do. So point blank, this is one of the best shooters in the transfer portal. And for a Kansas team that is looking for shooting,

yeah, seems like that fit would kind of add up. Now you might be wondering, okay, what about on the defensive side of the ball? Because we saw that limit like Nick Timberlake's playing time earlier on in the season. As the season got later, Kevin McCuller gets injured, he gets vaulted into the starting lineup. But earlier on in the season, Timberlake was struggling time earlier on in the season. As the season got later, Kevin McCuller gets injured. He gets vaulted into the starting lineup. But earlier on in the season, Timberlake was struggling to get on the court. And part of that was the three-point shooting, which was supposed to be a strength, wasn't falling at a high rate until really the NCAA tournament.

But Timberlake came in ranking in the fourth percentile defensively at Towson. So Colby Rogers, he was in the 51st percentile defensively this past year at Wichita State. So basically just like a nationwide average defender, which if that's what you get at Kansas, if you brought this kid on, you get an average defender with a dynamite three-point shooter, you absolutely take that. Now he was 31st percentile in his year at Siena, but that was three years ago at this point. So it's clear he could have got better. He was 75th percentile the year before that in his final year at Cal Poly. So I guess basically with the jump up to the Big 12, just view him as being like somewhere

between a below average to maybe an above average defender in the best case scenario. If you just want to say he's an average defender, but again, that's way better defensively than Timberlake. And I think there's more dribble shooting. I think there's more spot up shooting than maybe what Nick Timberlake showed, at least a bigger sample size on it. Maybe the biggest negative you could have with Colby Rogers is that he's never been on a winning team. Like that's something you want to put guys together. But I don't think that's all his fault. And he played well against better opponents. So it's not a situation where it's like, you know, I don't know. I guess there are so many players on the team that you have to kind of decipher

was were you the problem? Was somebody else the problem? And I don't think that was the case for Colby Jones. And in 24 career games against Ken Palm top 100 opponents, he shot 42.4% from three. And in 11 career games, I know those are still kind of small sample sizes, but still against Ken Palm top 50 teams, he's shot 44.4% from three.

So he's done well against better competition. And he did kind of have up and down in the T-Mobile center against KU and K state, but maybe a fun game if you want to go find highlights or go back and watch the game. South Dakota state played Wichita state this past year. Zeke Mayo had 25 points in the game, and obviously he'll be at Kansas, so maybe a fun one to watch from there, though he did have a lot of turnovers. And then Colby Rogers went for 21 points in that game on five of eight from

three. So I'm going to bring this up a little bit later when we get into the fit at Kansas, but I think there is a comp here from Colby Rogers to Jalen Coleman lands who Jalen Coleman lands came in as a guy who was on a lot of teams who weren't you know great teams I think he was on that Iowa State team that like didn't win a single game in conference play but he wasn't uh you know what I don't know he like he was a team player in a real way at Kansas that he came on and when when KU brought him on, it was almost Ochagbaje insurance. You didn't know if you were going to get Ochag back or not. Turned out you got Ochag back, and Jalen Coleman-Lanz played a bit of a smaller role. But if Ochag didn't come back, Jalen Coleman-Lanz would have played a much bigger role on that team.

But anyway, Jalen Coleman-Lanz was a 6'4 guard, same as Colby Jones, sniper from three, Colby Jones. Jalen Coleman-Lanz, very old player. He was in his like seventh year of college. He was in his mid-20s. Well, for Colby Rogers, this is going to be his sixth year of college because of kind of the year sitting out. And so for his career, he has made 39.2% of his threes on 627 attempts. That's actually better than Jalen Coleman-Lanz in his career,

who shot 37.6% from three on 8527 attempts. That's actually better than Jalen Coleman lands in his career, who shot 37.6% from three on 859 attempts. That includes his year at Kansas when he shot like 44%. And if you want to call up Isaiah Moss too, because there's some similarities there, Moss shot 37.8% from three for his career on 463 tries. So those are against better competition. Jalen Coleman lands at Iowa State and DePaul in the Big East and stuff like that. Whereas with Moss, you're talking Big 10 and then Big 12.

With Rodgers, a little weaker competition. But this kid is an absolute flamethrower. So for what it's worth, I think if Kansas makes the move to offer, I feel like it would happen. And I don't know if Kansas will or I don't know if Kansas won't. It's probably one of those moves where it's dependent on what else happens in the off season for KU. I don't think this is, you know, the same one like a Riley Kugel where they were very aggressive going to get it. It's more so, Hey,

if we end up getting Colby Rogers because we ended up having an opening and you know, this guy ended up leaving the program or something, he would be a good fit in that standpoint, but we're not going to move mountains to get this kid at the same point in time. But I do think he would be a nice fit for Kansas. Should they look to Adam? How exactly would he fit in with the team? We'll discuss that in a moment.

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How exactly would Colby Rogers, the Wichita State transfer, fit in with Kansas? So, you know, it's hard to say exactly what the starting lineup might be right now for Kansas. You're still waiting on Johnny Furphy, still waiting on Hunter Dickinson. And, you know, some of these decisions, even if you have a hunch which way it's going to go, it's impossible to say until it actually happens. And then, you know, you don't also know like okay is Zeke Mayo gonna come in and just hit the ground running and you know knock down be the the starting two guard or is there a chance Zeke Mayo could be coming off the bench and playing kind of a Remy Martin role right like so I think with with Colby Rogers I think the ceiling here would be you start at the

two guard spot I mean in theory you would view it as, hey, you bring this kid on. It's competition between him and Zeke Mayo and possibly El Marco Jackson coming back and LeBaron Phylon for who's going to be. And I guess Riley Kugel, which that Kugel competition could be at the two or the three or both or whatever, for who would be that starting two guard and may the best man win, so to speak, right? I think the floor here, though, would be kind of that Jalen Coleman-Lant coleman lance role where it's like yeah you're kind of like the eighth ninth man on the roster like you're gonna get some minutes here there you'll come in for you know a handful plus of minutes in regular season you might play closer to 10 minutes a game um come tournament time might

get divvied down a little bit more but we're gonna bring you in situationally maybe at the end of a half try to steal a three here or there that's's kind of the floor. Like either way, you're kind of a rotation player. And that's, like I said, kind of the floor scenario, which what would lead to that happening is like, you know, I guess, A, like how he translates to the jump up in competition, but also what happens the rest of the off season. What if Johnny Furphy does come back? And then, you know, what if Zeke Mayo does hit and all of a sudden you're starting to want Zeke Mayo, I don't know, Riley Kugel, Johnny Furphy at the four cages coming off the bench at the six. And then it's just like, okay, there's only so many minutes to go around. And then you're fighting with Elmarco Jackson and

LeBaron Filon. And what's going to happen there? Are you playing the Jalen Coleman lands role in that situation? Or are you just bar none the best shooter on the roster? And then it's like, we got to play you 20 minutes per game. Or do you end up being the best shooting guard or El Marco Jackson transfers? And that's why Kansas does go after Colby Rogers because they're like, okay, we have another scholarship or more minutes available at the kind of shooting guard position. But I think either way, you know, it's a very useful player to have on the roster, whether it's insurance, whether it's as a back-end rotation player that can be used in certain situations, or if it ends up being a player who plays, you know,

big minutes and is one of your better scores and one of your better shooters on a team that needs more shooting to surround Hunter Dickinson with. If you are going to play too big basketball, even if it's not for 30 minutes a night, like you did this past season, even if it's for 10 minutes a night, even if it's for 15 minutes a night, right, you need that shooting to kind of go around the roster. And this is a guy who does that. So if you're just looking at the skill fit, it's a home run. And so I think you play off DeJuan Harris perfectly too.

When you're talking about Colby Rogers, like you're talking about a high Rogers. You're talking about a high-volume, efficient shooter who can also handle and run pick and roll to give him a little bit of a breather in some of those situations. He can run that pick and roll with KJ Adams or Hunter Dickinson or Flory Budunga. I certainly think KJ's a great pick and roll, kind of big man forward type. Hunter Dickinson can be a good pick and pop big man.

Flory Budunga, based on the athleticism and probably throwing down lobs, you would think, and speed from a center spot, you would think he's going to be a good rim runner off a pick and roll. If you have a couple guards, Dwan Harris and Colby Rogers, who can execute that, and then Zeke Mayo too, who can run some pick and pop actions with Hunter Dickinson, where if you go under the screen, then Zeke Mayo shoots it. If you go over the screen, Hunter Dickinson gets open on a pick and pop. There's a lot that Kansas could kind of do there if you have all of this. And it would also allow you even like you could throw out lineups.

And I'm not saying this would start or anything, but like this could be a lineup that you use for portions of the game where you have DeJuan Harris at the one and Zeke Mayo at the two and Colby Rogers at the three. I guess it doesn't really matter which one's technically the two and which one's technically the three. But you get what I mean. You might say, oh, that's a three-guard lineup. Well, that's basically what Houston did this past year, right? I mean, it was LJ Cryer, Jamal Shedd, and Emmanuel Sharp at like the one, two, and three.

And Cryer is a smaller guard. Sharp is what, like 6'2", something like that. And that was very effective for them with having three guys who could kind of create and shoot the basketball. And that would be kind of the opportunity, not that that would be maybe the primary lineup or anything, but the type of ideas you could get with having another shooter and another creator on the floor. And I think more than anything, again, it's just that floor of shooting.

You're looking for more shooting. You're looking for a floor, a baseline of shooting that can get you through the floor. And I think more than anything, again, it's just that floor of shooting. You're looking for more shooting. You're looking for a floor, a baseline of shooting that can get you through the season and open things up for the guys on the inside as well and open things up for DeJuan Harris. And he could be a weapon in a small role. He could be a weapon in a big role. So, you know, whether it's the Isaiah Moss role, who ended up being a starter at the end of his season,

playing 25 minutes a game, or whether it's a Jalen Coleman-Lanz role, which is still a valuable a starter at the end of his season playing 25 minutes a game or whether it's a Jalen Coleman lands role which is still a valuable rotation piece at the end of the bench and you know it comes through for a few games here or there like either way that is valuable so for me this is absolutely a take in general but I do also understand KU is full-on scholarships and it has to come at the result of something else happening so I don't think it's it's to the situation – because I've continued to say this. I think Bill Self does better with retaining internal talent and having those players go through the program. So I'm not saying show somebody the door to bring him on.

I'm just saying if somebody else does transfer, like let's say somebody leaves the program or you decide you want to use the 13th scholarship this year or Johnny Furphy decides to stay in the draft. Obviously, maybe there are players like AJ Store where they would be like number one on the wish list or something. But you certainly couldn't go wrong with a guy like Colby Rogers, and I think you'd be a real nice fit for KU. All right, let's finish up here. Redoing this past offseason to make KU a much better team. We'll get to that in just a moment.

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Visit fanduel.com slash locked on and make your first bet an automatic win. FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook and official sportsbook partner of the LockedOn Network. Let's redo the offseason for KU. I don't even want to go through like the whole ripple effects things, but certainly some things that would have changed things a little bit more. KU had a lot of, it seemed like, interest with Harrison Ingram and then maybe slow played him too much. He ended up going to North Carolina and putting up really good numbers

and being a good three-point shooter. I don't know. That one becomes interesting because it's like, in theory, he was a good player and would have helped them shooting the ball. But I also don't know that a lineup where Harrison Ingram's the three, KJ's the four, flip-flop, whatever you want to say, Hunter's the five, if that really does fix anything. So I don't know.

I guess on paper maybe that one isn't as great. I think if you could go back in time to last year, why was Kansas not more in on like Dalton Connect? You were looking for offense. Wouldn't Connect have been like the perfect player to play off of Hunter Dickinson and to really help. Okay. I mean,

Dalton connect is going to be like first round pick and was an all American. He would have been perfect for a lot of teams. Right. But I don't know. You, it was just weird that Kansas never really felt like they were in the running.

Maybe that was just Tennessee was, was so on top of it from the early get go that it was just kind of their race to, to win. Cam spent Spencer. That would be a nice, there is the alternate world where you know nick timberlake chooses uconn and cam spencer ends up going to ku or something i

don't know maybe at that point he goes somewhere else but like could you imagine if those two things are flipped i don't know is it uconn just pasted everybody in the title game so it's like it's hard to say if you take one player off, does that change it? But it might. Cam Spencer was excellent and he would have been perfect for Kansas. You're talking about a guy who can play excellent defense, would have helped, you know, kind of insulate Hunter Dickinson a little bit more. Really good three-point shooter, really good working in the lane and kind of creating stuff for your offense. But that one also very tough to fault KU and Bill Suff because it was so late in the game, the Caleb love one.

That was a very divisive for all fan bases. When he entered the portal, like, do you want him? Do you not turns out? I know the sweet 16 game was bad, but it turns out like he was packed 12 player of the year and he specialized in creating shots.

Turns out that would have worked out pretty well for Kansas. You look at the, I don't know. I was always perplexed why Kansas didn't go more after like a guy like Max Aismith or Tyler Perry. Maybe that was just more about you only have a limited amount of NIL funds. As much as Kansas, there was that story that just came out that like Kansas is the top of the top.

Well, there's still a limit to it, right? If the top is $5 million a year in NIL, there's still a cap on that and how much you can spend and with how much you probably had to spend on Hunter Dickinson and Nick Timberlake and some of these guys, maybe you just didn't have enough money to bring on a guy like Max Aismith, but I was always curious why that didn't happen. The Jalen Tyson one was tough, and at the time, you didn't know if he was going to get the waiver to be eligible right away, so you can sort of excuse that a little bit more, but he might be a first round draft

pick now he put up unbelievable numbers of cal a really good three-point shooter average like 20 points per game he would have kind of been perfect low-key jayden bradley who they there was some reported interest i don't know truly how much would have been great pickup for ku um i think just in general when you're looking at this if you were to say if they just used the scholarship on arterial morris or you switch Timberlake with maybe a more reliable player, like would that have been enough? Would one additional good guard, like hypothetically, if it was Jalen Tyson in that instance, would that have been enough for this team to make some noise?

And it really might've been because like, let's say it was Jalen Tyson, for instance, you'd be talking about then Kansas having a starting lineup if hypothetically it was you know DeJuan Harris Jalen Tyson if Kevin McCuller is healthy Johnny Furphy and Hunter Dickinson with McCuller Tyson and Furphy that would be three like basically projected top 40 picks in the NBA draft all on the wing with Hunter Dickinson and DeJuan Harris like Like, I feel like that would have worked, you know? So I don't know. Is there something to the idea of maybe you actually would have been better off, you know, not bringing on Hunter Dickinson in terms of the NIL money that you would have saved

by not bringing him on? Could you have brought on a player like Dalton Connect and maybe some of these other players that that took up a lot of money on and to where you would have had way less offensive production, but Ernest Uday and Zubi Adjifo would have stayed, and maybe your defense would have been a little bit better. I don't know. It's hard to fault that because Hunter Dickinson was a second-team All-American, just kind of thinking out loud here. But I do think there were a lot of avenues, I guess, is my point in going over all this, a lot of different players that they showed interest at different times and I think my point is like I guess it's very easy to

see this last offseason and go yeah Bill Self struck out in the transfer portal we sure he's good at the transfer portal but I almost feel like it was just kind of a snake eyes type of year now if he continues to struggle in the transfer portal, then maybe we point to something, but like, it's still such small sample size. It still hasn't been around that long. I have a hard time believing Bill Self, the best coach in college basketball, just can't figure something out. Can't figure out the transfer portal at all. And so I almost view it as like, Hey, you just had a year where you just rolled snake eyes in the transfer portal. I mean, Nick Timberlake, UConn and North Carolina wanted him.

Those were both one seats. Maybe that means there's a little luck coming your way. Maybe that means that you're going to swing for the fences this time, and instead of striking out, you're going to hit a double or you're going to hit a home run or something like that, right? At least that's the hope of where it is. But point being, maybe just one move differently was enough to do it. And I don't know.

At the time, we thought Kansas had a home run offseason. So I don't know what that means moving forward. Do we just hesitate, even if it is a home run offseason, to be like, okay, let's pump the brakes here? Or do you just say, hey, if you continue to have home run offseasons, there's a better chance that eventually one of them is going to hit? I don't have the answer to that. But I think we'll find out a little bit more this offseason for KU. That'll do it for this episode of the show. We'll have a spring showcase preview coming up tomorrow

on that edition of LOJ. Find our show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page. We'll see you then.