Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks' Football 2025 schedule: Toughest and Most Important Games + KU Record Prediction

Starting point is 00:00:00 Big 12 football schedule is out, the KU football schedule is out for 2025, and I gotta say, it ain't so bad. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here at D Johnson Radio on Twitter, at Derek Johnson on Blue Sky. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:00:30 Thank you that every day is catching each and every show, wherever you get your podcast, whether it's on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe or anywhere that you get your audio podcast. On today's edition of the show, we're going to be breaking down the KU football schedule for 2025, which is officially out with the Big 12 schedule. We're going to get into the toughest games on the schedule.

Starting point is 00:00:49 We're going to get to the things that stick out the most, the most winnable stretches for KU, the hardest games, the most important games, all that. And we'll finish up with a little bit of a record prediction on this episode of the show, which is brought to you by GameTime. You can get tickets on GameTime, download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase with GameTime. So the Big 12 football schedule is officially out,

Starting point is 00:01:15 and you won't believe it, Kansas football is playing 12 games. But the things that stick out the most as part of this Big 12 football schedule for KU, the first part, I think the best part, honestly, is that Kansas has three bye weeks as part of this football schedule. So they're going to be playing in week zero, which allows them for one extra bye week, meaning that they're playing three games as part of this, all part of their non-con. Then they get a bye week. Then they play four games. Then they get a bye week. Then they play three games. Then they get a bye week, then they play four games, then they get a bye week, then they play three games, then they get a bye week,

Starting point is 00:01:46 then they play two games. And having those bye weeks I think are so helpful over the course of the season, whether it's extra preparation for another team, whether it's spacing things out so guys can be rested over the course of the season because it's pretty evenly spaced out between those and helping if there are any injuries at any point of the way through the season. I think the second best part of this is the reason going back to them playing in week zero that they have three bye weeks is that that means we get to KU football one week earlier than you might have thought. That means we get KU football a week before normal. Isn't that a good thing?

Starting point is 00:02:20 We're one week closer to the start of the KU football season in 2025 and we're one week quicker to that happening I guess the one downside of that is it is a week shorter of fall practice in theory I'm not 100% on that I don't know if they just get to start fall practice a week earlier than everybody else or if it means that they're just giving up a week of fall practice to therefore have a week of bi-week later on, in which so, you know, you would prefer not to have that. But if it does mean fall practice starts a week even earlier, then that's also great too. And I think the third best part as part of the schedule for KU, they avoided some key teams. If you're looking at the non-con, the fact that they avoided Illinois is pretty nice

Starting point is 00:03:01 because on ESPN's way too early top 25 for 2025, Illinois came in at number 13. But obviously, this is for the Big 12 schedule that rounded out the regular season schedule. And Kansas got to avoid BYU, who was a top 15 team in the country this past season. They're number nine on the ESPN way too early top 25. Arizona State, they avoided, who they lost to last season and is defending you know defending big 12 champions they're ranked 14th on that poll they avoided baylor who kansas hasn't really been able to have success against in baylor and we saw crush kansas last year and could be pretty good this year and they avoided colorado and both colorado and baylor by the way are in basically the

Starting point is 00:03:40 receiving vote section of the espn way too early top 25. They voted all those schools. That is a pretty friendly schedule for KU, at least on paper and what we're looking at. Now, the counter to saying that is that the Big 12 is totally random, and you look at the preseason expectations of who was expected to be the best teams in the conference a season ago, and Kansas State and Iowa State were kind of the only two in that top six range who kind

Starting point is 00:04:05 of hit up to the expectations so in theory I could point to this and say oh it's good Kansas is avoiding that team and it's pretty friendly schedule on paper well all of a sudden a couple teams on the schedule who you think are not going to be that good are going to be more middling teams end up being great teams like in Arizona State and all of a sudden a couple teams that that you thought were you know going to be good teams that you don't play end up maybe having a six and six season like that can absolutely happen we just saw that this season in the Big 12 so I take everything with caution when I talk about this schedule and everything like that but I do think those are good things for KU as part of this schedule. What do I think the most difficult two-game stretches are for KU

Starting point is 00:04:48 if we're to look at these as kind of pairs of schedules and anything like that? So moving over to the KU website, giving you a look, and specifically these are all the games. It's versus Fresno State at home, so that'll be kicking off the new booth August 23rd, which is that Week 0 game. Then on August 29th, they're playing Wagner, which that'll be a Friday night game in the booth. Then they'll give them one extra day because they'll get ready to go on the road against Missouri on September 6th. Bye week,

Starting point is 00:05:15 West Virginia at home to open up Big 12 play on September 20th and home against Cincinnati on September 27th. Then they'll get a two-game road tilt at UCF on October 4th and at Texas Tech on October 11th. And then they'll be back at home after another bye week, October 25th against Kansas State. Certainly interesting that one not on rivalry week, but we've kind of seen that recently here. Then you're hosting Oklahoma State on November 1st. Then you're at Arizona on November 8th. Final bye week, then at Iowa State, November 22nd, and then you play Utah on either November 28th, which would be a Friday, or November 29th. So kind of a flex schedule as part of that one for how that works for the KU scheduling. I think the most difficult two-game stretch is

Starting point is 00:05:56 it's one of these two. It's either the two-game stretch at Iowa State and versus Utah. I think a big part of that's going to depend how good is this Utah team going to be. If it's similar to last year's Utah team, that probably wouldn't be the answer, but I have a rousing suspicion Utah's going to be better in year two in the Big 12 and be more what we've typically seen from them in years past. Maybe not quite Pac-12 champion Utah, but I think they'll be better than they were a season ago. Iowa State, that's a road game for you, and Iowa State has been a really good team here, and they're bringing a lot back from a team who was the runner-up in the Big 12. I think the other one for the most difficult two-game stretch, because this isn't just taking into account one game,

Starting point is 00:06:31 I'm talking back-to-back games, honestly, that two-game road stretch where you go at UCF and at Texas Tech back-to-back, because when you look at the longest stretch of games without a bye week for KU, it is those back-to-backers. They're on the road. You go to Florida, which is about as far as you can travel in the Big 12. Then you come back. Then you go to Lubbock, which is another far travel the opposite direction.

Starting point is 00:06:53 I don't know if people know how far west Texas or Lubbock is in terms of the state of Texas. And both those two could be good teams. I think UCF, you know, I don't know. They're a huge question mark because they'll have a ton of talent and a ton of speed from the Florida area. I don't know how it all come together with Scott Frost and everything like that. But with Texas Tech, they've recruited well in the portal. They've recruited well at the high school ranks. Like they haven't had that breakthrough season necessarily yet, but they've been pretty good these past couple of years. I could see this being a breakout season for them and then winning nine or 10 games, competing for

Starting point is 00:07:22 a big 12 title. Like those will be a really tough two-game stretch. As far as the most winnable two-game stretches for KU, if we go to that Fresno State-Wagner back-to-back, I mean, that obviously has to be the number one because you should win the Wagner game, and that automatically makes it a little bit more winnable. And then Fresno State, you know, they were pretty good this past season. They lost a lot of good players in the transfer portal,

Starting point is 00:07:44 so we'll see what happens there, but, you know, that should be it. The West Virginia They lost a lot of good players in the transfer portal. So we'll see what happens there. But, you know, that should be it. The West Virginia Cincinnati back to back because you're getting West Virginia off a bye week. And then Cincinnati, it'll kind of remain to be seen how good they are. They were a lot better this year or in 2024, I should say, than 2023. So see how they do in 2025. But that one sticks out.

Starting point is 00:08:03 And I think what would be an interesting conversation is what is the more winnable two-game stretch featuring a Wildcats on the KU schedule? Is it the two-game stretch of taking on Kansas State after you come off a bye week and then Oklahoma State at home? Or is it the two-game stretch where you get Oklahoma State and then at Arizona to where you could say, okay, well, a Kansas State's probably going to be a better team than Arizona, but the Arizona one's on the road and the Kansas State one's at home

Starting point is 00:08:28 and the Kansas State one you get coming off a bye. You could have an argument there. I would argue the K-State, Oklahoma State one is tougher because we haven't seen Kansas beat Kansas State in a long time, but I do think you can make at least an argument there for either side. All right, what are the four hardest games, the four easiest games individually, the four most important games for KU, And then we'll get to our record prediction. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Our episode of the show is brought to you by GameTime, where you can get tickets to comedy,

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Starting point is 00:09:56 Download GameTime today. Last-minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Continuing on on the show with what are the toughest games, the most important games, that sort of thing for KU football as part of this schedule that is now fully out. And by the way, seven home games for KU compared to five road games. So that's always a nice boon for Kansas. And then you add to the fact that you have some of those bye weeks in there.

Starting point is 00:10:19 I really like the schedule for KU. Now, we like the schedule coming into last year too and ended up being a lot harder than you thought. Like we said, Arizona State, you thought was going to be bad. It ended up being great, right? It must be Texas to go to the semifinals of the college football playoff, right? Iowa State, you thought would be solid, but maybe you didn't know they were going to win double-digit games, right? So those things tend to happen. We thought Arizona was going to be good and Utah was going to be good, but those didn't end up happening, right?

Starting point is 00:10:47 So you look at the toughest games on the schedule. Let's go in reverse order. Number four, I'm going to go with the Kansas State home game. ESPN in their way too early top 25 has them at number 16. So if we're just going based off that ranking, this one should be higher. The reason I have it at number four and not ahead of some of these other ones that will, it'll be easier for me to debate why this one over that one once we get to those but with the Kansas State game you are getting it home you are getting it off a bye week and with how close Kansas has been these past couple of seasons to beating Kansas State I don't know a new booth like you've buried the the past issues maybe like it feels like if ever you were going to win one over K-State like maybe this

Starting point is 00:11:24 would be the one I don't know uh we'll wait and see so i have that in at number four number three is at missouri and again i think kansas state in a vacuum is a better team than missouri for 2025 because missouri who you know has had this good two-year run they are losing a lot off last year's team but missouri is still going to be a good team they're they're in the teams considered on that espn way too early top 25 and if you you have basically a Missouri team that you're viewed as a top 30 team and a Kansas State team you're viewing as a top 20 team, but one's at home off a bye and the other is on the road, not on a bye, I think the one on the road is a little bit tougher. This should be one that is super juiced up environment, both in terms of KU should be juiced up going on the road, but also

Starting point is 00:12:04 that Missouri environment is going to be wacky and wild coming into that one for KU. Number two, though, on the toughest, I'm going to go with at Iowa State. Now, Iowa State has been a team that Lance Leipold has done well against. They've won their last three games over the Cyclones, including in Ames in 2023. So maybe you could argue that if you're just talking about past history, the Kansas State game should be more difficult here, or the at Missouri game should be more difficult. But Iowa State comes in at number 11 on that ESPN way too early, top 25, and going to

Starting point is 00:12:34 be a tough game in Ames. They're going to be a very experienced team. So I have that one in at number two. Number one, though, you might be thinking, oh, number 11 on the road, or Kansas State, Missouri, what could be number one? Number one, I'm going to actually go at Texas Tech. So when you look at where they are in that ESPN way too early top 25, their team's considered. So they're basically a top 30, top 35 team. Here's why I think it is tougher than those other games. One, I think Texas Tech is going to end up being a top 25 team.

Starting point is 00:13:02 I was just on with Cam Stewart for Locked on Baylor, and he asked me to give a Big 12 title prediction. I just kind of think it on my feet throughout like Baylor, and I like Houston as a long shot. The more I think about it, I think Texas, I'm going to go with Texas Tech as a team that I think can be in the Big 12 title game. I'd probably go with Texas Tech and Baylor,

Starting point is 00:13:19 and then Houston's my dark horse. I think Texas Tech is going to have the goods this year. I really do. So I think they're going to be a really good team. It's a really tough place to play in Lubbock. On top of that, it will be your fourth straight game in that game in Texas Tech, and it will be your second straight on the road. It is your longest stretch all season long without a bye week. So you have the fatigue factor, you have the long travel factor, you have that it's a good team, you have the plane on the road. I think the Texas Tech game, that's what I have as the toughest game. But again,

Starting point is 00:13:47 all this could go away. Tech could easily go five and seven and Iowa State could be 10 and two or, you know, the schedule in the Big 12 is just going to be kind of bananas, to say the least. What about the easiest games as part of this on the schedule? I'm going to go with number four, versus West Virginia, right? I think West Virginia will be a decent team. Rich Rod's first year in Morgantown, but there could be some growing pains with adjusting the roster. I know it'll be easier nowadays with the transfer portal where you can adjust it on the fly a lot quicker than maybe 10, 15 years ago, but there could be some growing pains in the style they want to play. you're getting that one coming off a buy right um and i think that's super important and you're getting

Starting point is 00:14:29 that one at home against team you lost to in a game that you probably should have won last year so maybe a little extra edge number three is versus oklahoma state and this is one where i put oklahoma state in the bucket as like the same as like tcu which i guess that's another good thing k you avoided tcu because we saw what the athleticism of TCU did to him last year. But Oklahoma State is one of those teams where it's like on paper, I'm like, oh, they were bad this year. Now you're getting them at home this year. And it's like, oh, this should be great for you.

Starting point is 00:14:58 But the track record of Mike Gundy says that they're going to bounce back this year. Right. Then again, there's been a lot of hot seat stuff with Mike Gundy. So if this is the time back this year right then again there's been a lot of hot seat stuff with Mike Gundy so if this is the time maybe it's all crumbling by then and then maybe you're playing a much easier game so I have that in at number three but I feel scared doing it because would shock anybody if all of a sudden Oklahoma State were nine and three this year right I don't think that would shock me number two on the easiest is the Fresno State game that is a

Starting point is 00:15:25 little bit scary that that's the second easiest but i'm not going to pick one of these big 12 games over it necessarily right i mean fresno state you look at it they're losing some key players lost their quarterback to the portal lost one of their good receivers who hey he was in on in the portal um their head coach jeff tedford had to uh you know retire the during i want to say it was summer spring ball of last year, and they weren't quite the same team. I think they're going to put up a good fight against KU. They typically play well in these games.

Starting point is 00:15:51 They played well against Michigan on the road and then Oncon this past season. But again, I'm not going to put it ahead of one of these other teams. And then number one on the easiest has to be the Wagner game. I mean, duh, I don't really need to get into that one even more. Why that would be easiest. What about the four most important, mean, duh, I don't really need to get into that one even more why that would be easiest. What about the four most important, though, on the list for KU? So again, we're going to do reverse order here.

Starting point is 00:16:10 Number four, I'm going to say the Utah game at home. The Utah game is kind of similar to the Oklahoma State game. If you told me one of Utah or Oklahoma State was way better than they were a season ago, I would totally buy. Now, I don't necessarily know which one. But with Utah, you're also looking at that one being senior day. And you look at some of the seniors, I know there were a bunch of seniors that graduated off this past year's team. But when you're looking at this

Starting point is 00:16:33 next year's team, there's going to be a bunch more seniors. And there's a lot of them that are going to be transverse. Maybe you're not going to have that same long-term attachment, but like Jalen Daniels is a part of that class, right? And so anytime you have senior day, it makes it more important. But also that's your final game of the season, right? That could be the difference of making or missing a bowl game. That could be the difference of, you know, I don't know, finishing the regular season ranked or not. That could be the difference of playing in a big 12 title game.

Starting point is 00:16:56 You never know what that game could mean. So that went in at number four. Number three is the at Iowa State game. The way you've played recently against them. Can you continue that, you know, kind of over the last three games, like keep that winning streak going against Iowa State to where you feel like you are continuing to have that strong level of play against them, and then the fact that it is probably going to be

Starting point is 00:17:17 a really good opponent on the road, a really good opportunity to try to score a big road win against another Big 12 title contender if you think you can be a Big 12 title contender this year in the top two though we have both rivalry games and i went back and forth on which one should be number one right so uh full disclosure the missouri and the k-state games are in this top two now the argument for why missouri should be the most important game is obvious you haven't played missouri in over a decade and they are your biggest rival. So in theory, that one should be number one just by that. But here's the difference. So I actually went at Missouri game at number two. I went the first Kansas State game at number one. And I think there's two big reasons why. One, if the ultimate goal is to win your conference, the Missouri game

Starting point is 00:18:00 does not have impact on your conference. And so the conference standings that matter in the Kansas State game matters to that more than the Missouri games. That's one reason. The second reason though is this. You're going to have more cracks at Missouri. You're going to get Missouri at home in 2026, right? There's more games as part of this home and home. I think six games total scheduled between the two. With Kansas State, it is time for you to end the streak. You have lost too many consecutive games that you need to end this streak, right? And I'm not advocating that you should try to lose to Missouri to beat Kansas State. That's not even correlated at all in any way. But I'm just saying, I think the Kansas State one, especially when you look at how well Kansas has recruited

Starting point is 00:18:40 in state this season, if you're able to snap the streak and add a Kansas State win to that as well and beat a team who's in your conference, who, again, theoretically, if you think you can compete for the Big 12 title, that win would go a long way in helping to do that. That win would go a long way in helping you with what order of bowl game you would go to. I think that is the most important game,

Starting point is 00:18:59 even though Missouri is KU's biggest rival. All right, let's finish up. Way too early record predictions for KU football. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for joining us on today's episode of the show. We will be back at you with some KU basketball content on Thursday's episode of the show, and then we'll have a little KUK State preview

Starting point is 00:19:20 coming at you on Friday's edition of LOJ. So you look at the ku football schedule and what is my record prediction well i'm not going to do this as as earnestly as i'm going to pick each and every game i'm going to pick this in segments we'll do a pick each and every game later because i feel like rosters don't get finalized till really after spring ball then you have the transfer portal round two and everything so um right now the way i'm looking at it in the non-con verse fresno state verse wagner at missouri the at missouri game gonna be really tough to win on the road they're gonna be jacked up they've got a good team i do think it is a winnable game for ku like i think they could

Starting point is 00:19:56 absolutely win the game um but the fresno state game is is a losable game again i'd pick ku to win the game so i think just you total it up i'd say two and one in the non-con would kind of be my guess there for ku um which i guess that'd be an improvement off what you did this past season then you look at the bye week and then you have a four game stretch where i think you could easily say okay can you go two and own those two home games especially with west virginia coming off the bye and that would get you to four and one and then can you just split on the road and that would get you to four and one. And then can you just split on the road? And that would get you to five and two, right? If I'm just picking it, I'm going to say two and two, if we're just doing this

Starting point is 00:20:31 conservatively. I think it's hard right now, you know, to know exactly what you're going to get from a lot of different outputs from Kansas. And of course, there is the one way of looking at this that Kansas was five and seven last year, and they lost a lot of their good players. How are they going to be better? Well, you know, there's a chance they have improvement and that they hit on some of these transfers and that some of their young players break out and that they get a little luckier in some of these one score games that they've better, you know, coordinator play calling from what they have. Those would be reasons why. But yeah, so let's say they go two and two there, they put them at four and three. Then you're looking at a bye week again again then you have kansas state oklahoma state and then at arizona let's say you can go two and

Starting point is 00:21:09 one in that three so that would either leave you lose to k state and the street continues and then you can beat oklahoma state and uh arizona or you know maybe you beat k state and split the next two or maybe you win the two home games lose the road one um that would put you at six and four on the season and then at iowa state and verse utah like those are both very difficult games you could easily lose both games i'll just say they split so one and one that puts me at seven and five so that's my my way too early record prediction which i did not look at the vegas over under win total until after i i went through this in my head and did that segmenting of picks. And then I was curious, okay, I feel like seven wins after they just went five games. I

Starting point is 00:21:49 feel like that's going to be the over on the Vegas over-under win total. Turns out FanDuel has it at seven and a half. So it's right around where I have it. But that makes me feel sad because I feel like that's me being pessimistic saying it's under seven and a half. And I don't want to pick the under on the over-under win total. So we're just going to boost it up. We're going to say eight and four. We're going to say eight and four for the people on the record prediction here in Jalen Daniels' final season for KU. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:22:15 You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page. We'll be back with you tomorrow to talk a little next season KU basketball possible lineups as well. And we'll be back on Friday for a little KU K-State preview. See you then with Locked on Jayhawks anywhere you get podcasts or on our YouTube page.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks' Football 2025 schedule: Toughest and Most Important Games + KU Record Prediction

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