Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks Football 3rd Quarter Report: Stocks Up, Stocks Down, Ranking the Final Three Games

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we're through another quarter of the season for KU football. Third quarter in the books, we get to our third quarter report. Stocks up, stocks down, things on KU football. And looking into the last quarter, what would be a realistic record expectation? How difficult are their final three games? We rank them, that coming up on today's edition of the show. You are Locked on Jayhawks. Your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:00:24 Part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team, every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well, Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 p.m. on KLWN in Lawrence with Rock Chalk Sports Talk. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get any of your podcasts. You can find us on our YouTube page for free and like and subscribe to the show. Thank you to every dayers out there tuning in to each and every episode. We're talking third quarter report here for KU football today.

Starting point is 00:01:00 What stock is up? What stock is down lately for KU football? Preview of the final quarter. Ranking the final three games on today's episode. First, we are brought to you by FanDuel. Make every moment more. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 Moneyline bet. That's $150 if your team wins.

Starting point is 00:01:18 Visit fanduel.com slash locked on to get started. We're going to start with stocks up, then we'll move to stocks down, and then we'll look at the fourth quarter coming up of the final three games of the regular season. First up, I think stocks up on Jason Bean. And maybe this is stocks up on Jason Bean being the starter the rest of the way. We heard from Lance Lightfield on Monday, and it sounds like he had kind of a setback

Starting point is 00:01:42 because we saw him warming up at the previous Saturday game against Oklahoma. And then all of a sudden last week, he doesn't travel with the team said that I think Lance Leipold said that he like didn't practice really last week. So that sounds like to me, it was kind of a setback. He said about practice on Monday, he was watching practice,

Starting point is 00:01:59 not like participating in practice. So it seems like to me, the Jalen Daniels injury is very severe and keeping them out. So I'm kind of at the expectation that just like, okay, Jason Bean's going to be the starter the rest of the way. And if Jalen does come back, then that's great. But Jason Bean has also earned the ability to be the starter with the way he's played. I thought he was excellent against Iowa State. I thought that was the best game of his season, maybe his career. I mean, he had the really good Oklahoma State game last year that got Kansas Bowl eligible.

Starting point is 00:02:25 Obviously, he's had key moments. He's had games where he's thrown for a ton of yards and everything. But he was really clean against Iowa State and having to make some tight window throws and everything. But then you look at the Oklahoma game, how it finished, leading him to the drive. So he's been good enough. And over the last three games, which is what we're looking at here for the third quarter report, Jason Bean has averaged 326 total yards per game. He's averaging like over 300 of those are passing yards per game.

Starting point is 00:02:53 He has seven total touchdowns to four interceptions. Now that line you would like to see even better than slightly below a 2-1, but especially what he's coming off of this last game against Iowa State. I think stock is up on Jason Bean, feeling comfortable that he can win you a lot of games because that was the question. And I had that question too, right? I kind of thought that, okay, with Jalen, maybe you can be an eight or nine win team with Jason Bean. Maybe it's a six win team. Right.

Starting point is 00:03:16 And I think I've been proven wrong on that. And Jason Bean has been excellent and good for him. And you're winning a lot of games with Jason Bean and he was excellent against Iowa State. So stock's up on Jason Bean. I think stock is up on the KU wide receiver court. Now, if you look at the production, if you look at the stats for a lot of these guys over the last three games, from where they were in the first six games or the previous three games, the numbers are just up. Part of that, though, is just a product of, well, you had to throw a bunch against Oklahoma State.

Starting point is 00:03:41 And you had to throw a little against Iowa State because they did a good job against the run. You had to throw a good amount against Oklahoma because they did a good job against the run. You had to throw a good amount against Oklahoma because it was a back-and-forth game, and you're down late, and you're having to convert stuff through the air. So part of it is just you maybe threw the ball more over the last three games, and if Jason Bean's averaging over 300 passing yards per game over the last three, well, that means there's going to be more opportunity, more target share, more yards to be had for the receivers.

Starting point is 00:04:03 And so even in the first six games, when some of the receivers numbers didn't jump off the page and, you know, didn't look like anything special. Okay. Well part of that was just, they're spreading the ball around. They're running the football really well. So they're not having to pass like you have the UCF game in there where they're like barely through the football. So part of the,

Starting point is 00:04:21 the key receiver core having stocks up here over these last three is just that you're having more opportunity and they've always made big plays when they've needed to, even in the first 16. But it feels like to me, they're making even more big plays over these last three games. It feels like to me, they're making an exponential amount of really good plays or really plays in key moments during the game. You know, you think about some of the catches you just had against Iowa State, for instance, like Luke Grimm had a couple at the sideline.

Starting point is 00:04:49 Doug Emelian had one at the sideline where he got his feet in. Obviously, Lawrence Arnold had the big touchdown. Quentin Skinner is just making unbelievable catches. The tip ball against Oklahoma, the one kind of diving at the sideline between two defenders crunching him against Iowa State. The receivers have been good all year long, but it feels like over these last three games, they've escalated that even more.

Starting point is 00:05:09 And the, I guess, end product right now, Kansas is now ranked fourth in the country on pro football focus in receiving grade. It was below that coming into the last three games, so stocks up on the KU receiver core. KU's corner duo gets stocks up here because they are hitting a new stride and a new level Mello Dotson's PFF grade now is like an 80 overall Kobe Bryant's very good his is right around an 80 and with Kobe over the

Starting point is 00:05:37 last three games he's only been targeted five times he's given up a total of 13 yards so Kobe Bryant over the last three games 13 yards total given up and I'm pretty sure two of those passes I know at least five of the yards I think it's more than that we're just on screen pass so it's like well what are you gonna really do about it right it's kind of hard to defend that um which means that realistically like he's not really giving up anything in terms of the run of play and passing and now we're seeing with Melo Dotson like this started a little shaky with the Oklahoma State game. I think you could argue that was his worst game of the season because he had other good games at the early portion of the season, but he was targeted 11

Starting point is 00:06:11 times with Oklahoma State, gave up nine catches in the game, and he has bounced back since then. He's responded so well. The last couple games, a couple pick sixes, but also not giving up much yardage or completions or anything as part of the two games as well. He's been excellent. He also had a big hit for a tackle in one of the plays that Iowa State was able to complete a pass on him, had a big tackle to keep him two or three yards short of the stick. So Melo Dotson's playing really good football right now. Kobe Bryant's playing really good football right now.

Starting point is 00:06:40 This corner duo is excellent. Now you've just got to hope for health because Melo Dotson's been injured the last two games. You hope he's back. You hope he's able to sustain and everything. Obviously, the last injury was a little scary with him being down on the field for a while and not really moving. Then he eventually gets up. So it was good to see him walk off and everything, and you hope that he's all right.

Starting point is 00:06:58 But the KU corner duo is playing excellent football at this moment in time, right when you need them down the back stretch of the season. Overall, though, Kansas just has stocks up because you go two and one in a tough stretch of play where you play Oklahoma State, who's right now tied for first in the Big 12 and college football playoff rankings tonight at time of recording. I know this is coming out Wednesday, so we'll see where Oklahoma State is.

Starting point is 00:07:21 I'd imagine they'll be in the top 20. Then you have Oklahoma, who I think still will be in the top 20, even after this last loss to Oklahoma State. And then you have Iowa State, who was tied first in the Big 12 when you played them and certainly is going to be kind of like a pesky bowl team, I would think, right? So it's a tough stretch of play, especially when you add to it that two of those games came on the road.

Starting point is 00:07:43 And you go 2-1. Stock is up overall on KU football, just overall whether it's the program, whether it's the Oklahoma win, whether it's the getting the seven wins, whether it's the securing the winning season, the program is seeing stocks up. The recruiting is seeing the stocks up. But just for individually this season, like we went into the last quarter report. We went into the second quarter report and Kansas was sitting at five and one. And the thought there was, yeah, if you go one and two, it's,

Starting point is 00:08:12 it's not the worst thing in the world. And if you go two and one, I think you feel ecstatic about it. Well, sure enough, they went two and one. So I think you should feel ecstatic about it. And I think people do now there is still that bit in the back of your mind that's like, oh, they could have beaten Oklahoma State. You know, you're minus two in turnovers. You had special teams mistakes. You have the offsides call go against you. And it's just like, man, they could have won that game.

Starting point is 00:08:37 And if they won that game, they'd be eight and one right now. And I don't know, probably ranked in the top 10. And they'd be tied for first in the Big 12, and they'd have a great opportunity because then they'd have the tiebreaker over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. But, you know, you can't live that way because realistically, unless you are in Alabama or Georgia or Michigan, there's going to be a game or two like that over the course of your season,

Starting point is 00:09:01 whoever you are. And I know the goal is to eliminate those completely if you're like a coaching staff and stuff, but that's just kind of how things go. So just move on, deal with it. You had the loss, but Kansas is in a very good spot right now. And so Stock's up on it. KU headed into their fourth and final quarter.

Starting point is 00:09:17 We're going to get to where Stock is down, where things have not been good over these last three games compared to maybe the first six or the previous three. First, this episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by PrizePix. PrizePix is really simple to play. You can make your picks, submit your entry in less than 60 seconds. You can win up to 25 times your money. You pick anywhere between two to six players.

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Starting point is 00:10:36 All right, stocks down, and I guess stocks neutral because I might have something here for that. KU's rushing attack, I guess, technically gets a stock's down. I think statistically, you would say, yes, stock is down in this regard from the last three games. KU's worst two outputs of the season, so lowest two rushing games of the season, came over the last three games. You had two games under 100 yards with both Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Theoretically, you're seeing more struggle. Now, 130 rushing yards per game over the last three. You're at 198-ish for the year.

Starting point is 00:11:16 So, again, you just look statistically, okay, that's taking a dip down. Now, it makes sense, though. Oklahoma State played really well against you defensively in rush defense, and they've just turned a corner in just really everything. Iowa State coming in was a top finish strong, but certainly you're going to need more productivity down the stretch from this unit if you're going to want to beat Kansas State, if you're going to want to win on the road against it's that, if you're going to want to win this week against Texas Tech team, who does run the football themselves very well. Statistically, this is down a little bit, but I think it's one of those things where it kind of makes sense because of the opponents you played and because of how balanced KU is if you do just sell out to stop the run KU should be good enough to

Starting point is 00:12:09 still throw the ball and beat you that way and that's what they kind of did in the Iowa State game that's what they almost did in the Oklahoma State game to a couple things that they kind of missed you know dealt whether it's the interceptions or you know some of the little things that happened in that game so I guess technically is down on this but I would expect a big bounce back over the final three games ball security has stocks down in this it was actually great against Iowa State so you're coming off a really good performance in terms of ball security with zero turnovers against Iowa State and that was the key to helping you win that game on the road but this is overall we're evaluating the stocks for the last three

Starting point is 00:12:46 games combined, not just where things are headed necessarily. So in the previous two games with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State combined, the offense turned the ball over five times for KU. And I guess technically all of those were in offense. There was one on special teams on a fumble kick return. But still, five turnovers from you overall in the previous two games, which means over the last three games, over the last quarter that we're evaluating, five turnovers for KU. And the reason the stock is down because of that, the first six games combined, KU had five turnovers. So over the last three games, KU has as many turnovers as they had in the first six. You're going to have to make sure you're closer to the Iowa State numbers

Starting point is 00:13:26 than you are with the Oklahoma to Oklahoma State numbers. And I guess it is trending up because the Iowa State game is the most recent of the bunch. But again, for the full quarter of those three games, that was kind of the case. And so when you look at it in games where they've turned the ball over one or zero times since 2022 under Lance Leipold I think they're 10 and 2 now um when that happens the both losses are to Texas 10 and 0 against everybody else and then when they don't

Starting point is 00:13:56 at that point they're what three and seven when they have two or more turnovers over the last two years I didn't want to count 2021 because that was just, you know, year one, year zero type of thing with Lance Leipold. Excuse the numbers a little bit. But anyway, that's kind of interesting. So, you know, hold on to the football, right? Like, makes sense. That helps you win games. Stock is also down on the sack numbers for KU football. I still feel like KU has a good pass rush, and overall they do. They're still tied first in the Big 12 with 22 sacks this season. So overall, this has been a really good unit I've been so impressed with what the defensive ends have provided with the additions you've made on the d-line and Austin Booker's been electric Gage Keyes has been a nice addition Devin Phillips obviously kind of

Starting point is 00:14:38 banged up but he's been a nice addition for you right some of the young players coming into their own Tommy Dunn and DJ Withers and other players that I'm not going to get to everyone. But anyway, the sack numbers have gone down over the last three games. So KU in their first six games had 17 sacks. So that's about three sacks per game. Over the last three games, KU has just four sacks, which is just 1.3 per game. So basically their first six games, they averaged double the sack numbers that they have over their last three games. Is this a worry for the final three games of the season, or is this something about who they just played, right? It could make sense. Against Oklahoma, they didn't throw the ball a ton. They ran the ball a ton, and when they did throw it, it was a lot of RPOs or quick fires from Dylan Gabriel. And then beyond that,

Starting point is 00:15:29 when it wasn't, he's a fast, mobile quarterback who can scramble away from sacks. You look at the Iowa State game. They came in giving up only six sacks on the season, which led the Big 12. You had two against them. They hadn't had a sack in a home game, and you had two against them. And then you look at the Oklahoma State game. That was one where, yeah, you would have liked to have more pressure, and you didn't get a ton on them. I think some of it was schematic that Oklahoma State was just getting the ball out super fast and then just running with Ollie Gordon,

Starting point is 00:15:55 and that combination helped avoid sacks. Overall, though, you're looking for this to pump up a little bit. I still really like KU's D-line. I still see Austin Booker whooping tackles. I still see Jeremy Robinson making big plays. I still see Patrick Joyner and Hayden Hatcher rotating in there and making flash plays here and there. I still see Gage Keyes hitting the quarterback hard at different points. I still really like the KU defensive line, and overall, they are still tied first in the Big 12 in sacks. But you want to get back up there over these final three games to finish strong here.

Starting point is 00:16:26 I think most importantly will be in the game against Kansas State. You're going to have to apply pressure in that one. But it would certainly help in this one too. Texas Tech has been turnover prone, to say the least. They have the second most interceptions thrown in the Big 12 this year. If you can heat them up, you can lead to some of those interceptions. So certainly some injury stuff too, like the Oklahoma State game that I think made it tough that probably I should mention that there.

Starting point is 00:16:48 And they've had some injuries on the D-line like Phillips now, Tommy Dunn now. That would affect this as well. But overall, this is something that I trust in the last three games, but it's certainly worth monitoring that the numbers have dipped a bit over the last three games. Is it just a rut? Is it just based on who you played? Is it injury stuff? Is it indicative of how it's going to finish? We'll see on all that stuff, but certainly KU, if they can

Starting point is 00:17:10 get back to their first six games, would be an elite finish to the year for them. We're going to finish up with a ranking of KU's final three games and a preview of the final quarter of play for KU football. First, this episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel. Score early this NFL season with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 Moneyline bet. That's $150 if your team wins. If you've been thinking about joining FanDuel, there's no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use. There's a wide range of betting options, including

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Starting point is 00:18:27 regular season games I think if you were ranking the games in terms of most difficult or I guess hardest to win number one would be Kansas State you haven't beat them in you know 15 years or 14 years whatever it would be and uh on top of that um K-State's just got a good football team. Like, you know, ranks in a team that, I don't know where they're going to be in the college football playoff rankings. Again, this is coming out Wednesday, so I'm going to look stupid,

Starting point is 00:18:52 whatever it is, but I'm recording this on Tuesday. Nonetheless, K-State, I think is the hardest game for sure. And you look at some of the metric sides, like they were like a top 15 team. So very good. That's for sure number one.

Starting point is 00:19:03 I think this week is number two against Texas Tech. Now you could convince me Cincinnati should be number two just because it's a road game and it'll be senior day for Cincinnati. And that is always going to be difficult to deal with. But Texas Tech is a much better team than the record shows. They're sitting at four and five, so it doesn't look great.

Starting point is 00:19:21 But some of the, again, like the metric sites have them as like a top 40 team, have them as like a top 35 team in the country. They lost an overtime to Wyoming. They only lost by a score to Oregon, a game that they nearly beat Oregon who looks like one of the best teams in the country. So like this team could very easily be five and four or six and three.

Starting point is 00:19:38 They have one loss or a game to West Virginia, some other close games. They've had some quarterback injuries, but now they're back to the backup as opposed to being on the third string, which hurt them for a bit. So this is a much better team than the record indicates. I think Tech would be number two in there, especially with the way Tech runs the football. Taj Brooks is one of the best running backs in the country. Their top 10 EPA per play on running the football right now is Tech. So that would be number two, and then Cincinnati would be number three. All games are winnable. All games are losable. That's the beauty of the Big 12.

Starting point is 00:20:06 I think a realistic record what you would be expecting. If Kansas wins the K-State game, I think people would like – you don't want to go 1-2 over the final three, especially with you feeling like you're in the Big 12 title race. But if you go 1-2 with the one win beating K-State, I think people would be still happy with it. That said, if you go 2-1, I think you'll be still happy with it. That said, if you go two and one, I think you'll feel really good about this final quarter. But if you want to make the

Starting point is 00:20:28 Big 12 title game, if you want to compete for that, you got to go 3-0 over these last weeks, which is entirely possible. K-State game feels like kind of coin flip game. This game against Texas Tech feels like maybe like a, I don't know, 55-45 game. Cincinnati game might end up being like a 60-40 game game so all games are close but you have the opportunity in front of you you're right there in the big 12 standings why not why not uh but yeah realistic record I don't know one and two two and one somewhere in that range um three you know you're ecstatic and maybe you're playing for a big 12 title or maybe you're playing for a new year's six bowl um like I said, you just want to go at least one and two,

Starting point is 00:21:06 win at least one of the games. And if that is the case, you hope that it's the K-State one if you can only guarantee one from here. All right, that'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. We will be back on tomorrow's episode to get a KU Manhattan basketball preview. And then Friday's episode, we're going to get to a KU Football Texas Tech preview. You can find our show anywhere you get any of your podcasts. Like and subscribe to us on our YouTube page.

Starting point is 00:21:28 We'll see you next time with Locked on Jayhawks.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks Football 3rd Quarter Report: Stocks Up, Stocks Down, Ranking the Final Three Games

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