Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks' NCAA Tournament Hopes Require Home Win vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

Starting point is 00:00:00 Can't believe I'm having to say this, but Kansas needs to win this game on Saturday if they want to make it to the NCAA tournament. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Going on, Derek Johnson, this is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. previewing Kansas versus Oklahoma State, a game that, you know, if Kansas wants to keep the NCAA tournament streak going, this is their most winnable game remaining. So you better go win it, playing in Allen Fieldhouse against a team who's 500.

Starting point is 00:00:55 So we'll get into that. We'll get into the Oklahoma State scouting report, headlines for the game, keys to the game, players to watch all that and more. You know the drill. If you're an everydayer, today's episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, new FanDuel customers can get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Do that over at FanDuel. So Kansas takes on Oklahoma State

Starting point is 00:01:16 Saturday afternoon game for KU, and they enter into this one with not a lot of success in recent Saturday games for KU. They've lost four consecutive Saturday games, have the Jayhawks. So trying to break that streak. They've also lost two in a row in total. And going back to that first Saturday game that they lost to Houston, they have lost five of their last eight games at this point in time. But obviously, you know, Kansas is only one loss away from double-digit losses. They're a loss away from being 500 in conference play.

Starting point is 00:01:45 But above all, I said after the BYU game, it is now a conversation at least. It is a question that what would it take for Kansas not to make the NCAA tournament. But if you lose this game, it becomes a real conversation about like, okay, you just lost your most winnable game left. Ken Palm gives like a percentage chance to win for all the games remaining. It has Oklahoma State at a 93% chance, which seems high,

Starting point is 00:02:10 but 74% for the at Colorado game. The rest of the games, 55%, 16%, 56%. I think the only way Kansas doesn't make the NCAA tournament is if they lose every game from year on out. Now, maybe if they only win one more game, that would put them there, but that basically means if you win this game, I think you're going to be in a good situation where we probably don't really have to talk about it at that point in time. Beyond that, the other question here, I guess NCAA tournament streak, we're going to see how the senior day streak goes

Starting point is 00:02:36 here in a couple weeks. What about the sellout streak? Is that something we need to be concerned about at all? You look at the remaining home games for KU, Texas Tech, and Arizona at home, Arizona being senior day. Those will sell out, obviously. I'd assume Saturday is going to sell out. I've never really had to even really think about it for KU. I think the streak is encroaching on 400 games. It's over 350.

Starting point is 00:02:54 I know at this point in time for the sellout streak for KU, I think it's going to sell out. I don't know. That was going around the student camping groups. There were only six camping groups that signed up. Now, I that lottery was I mean there was like snow day and there was it's been like negative 12 and stuff so maybe that's something where the camping groups by the time you know this gets to Friday by the time this gets to Saturday maybe those groups will go you know significantly up that that's not a conversation but um just general fan interest right it's it's

Starting point is 00:03:22 not just the students I know a lot of people are talking about selling their tickets for the game or just trying to give them away and then not wanting to go. So from that standpoint, is there any issue in loading it up? I, especially because the weather's going to be nice for the first time. People might just be like, let's just go, you know, nice thing. Nice. Like 50 degrees, do something else. I don't know. I don't know. I hope it's a sellout. I hope it keeps going going i think it's going to keep going but again in the same vein of like i think they're going to make the ncaa tournament it is at least worth a conversation now which is crazy that we've gotten to even this point that we have to discuss it that it is uh now a topic of conversation

Starting point is 00:03:57 though the last one here is the bryce thompson revenge aspect now we've seen plenty of kansas bryce thompson oklahoma state matchups already uh but this would be the ultimate one because going back to the idea of you know as long as kansas wins this game i think they'll be fine for the ncaa tournament what better way for bryce thompson to enact ultimate revenge than by i guess kick-starting the path for ku to not make the tournament that would be a pretty wild uh you know down the road that little domino effect type of thing uh to get there so you look at oklahoma state as a team they enter at 13 and 13 on the season they are 5 and 10 in big 12 play they are ranked 102nd on ken palm at least as of time of recording they're 97th on bart torvik um and you look at it and this is one of the worst teams in the big 12 and also you are playing them

Starting point is 00:04:47 on your home floor so like it should be a game that you win but based on how they're playing right now nothing seems to be a guarantee and oklahoma state to their credit like you still do have five wins you have a pulse you know this isn't the iowa state team from whatever that was like four years ago where they didn't win a single game in conference play and they're even if they're near the bottom of the big 12 which you have like colorado and and you know stuff like that um behind them but even in that situation they still do have a pulse they beat ucf and ucf's kind of a bubble tournament team probably pops their bubble but 104 to 95 so that gets your attention but uh they have lost oklahoma state has seven straight road games that sounds kind of familiar to ku fans so the personnel for oklahoma state we mentioned

Starting point is 00:05:29 bryce thompson we'll start with him he's the six foot six shooting guard wing tied for the team lead 12.1 points per game 44 from the floor 34 from 380 at the foul line he's just been a solid score for them has never really taken that you know breakout level season but he's just been a solid player for what three years now for them he's coming off a 25 point game though and in the past he has played KU well so last year in the game in Allen Fieldhouse he gets injured four minutes in and I think he missed the rest of the season from there so that sucked to see but he had a 20 point game in Stillwater last year against KU he had 17 the year before in Stillwater and the year before in Allen Fieldhouse, he had 23 points.

Starting point is 00:06:06 So he has played well against Kansas, and I kind of expect him to again here in this one. Their maybe most interesting player is a 6'8 forward in, I don't know if it's Marcellus or Markellis, Marcellus, I. Avery. He is getting 12.1 points per game as well, 4.7 rebounds. He's kind of a big wing stretch four type for them that shoots 38 from three and nobody on oklahoma state has more than 93 point attempts except for avery avery has over 130 of them so he by far takes the most threes and he plays the four for them which makes for interesting matchups versus a lot of teams and indeed in this game against kansas who has been playing two and even three big basketball.

Starting point is 00:06:46 You look at the center position for Oklahoma State, 6'10", 245-pounder in Abu Usman. He is averaging 12 points, 5.5 rebounds per game, 52% from three. He can shoot a 3, 12 of 24 from three, so he's been 50%. That's about one a game for him at this point in time, but that'll be interesting to see how KU deals with that that and then there's a collection of guards for oklahoma state arturo dean who is five foot eleven uh six foot one khalil brantley uh six foot three jamirion keller and all of them average between five to seven points per game but all of them are doing it on sub 30 from three

Starting point is 00:07:21 uh in the case of dean you're getting like over three assists per game. You're getting over two steals per game. Then you have six foot seven Robert Jennings, who's kind of a wing who sometimes even plays a small ball five. He fits that billing to like five to seven points per game and below 30% from three. And then six five guard and Brandon Newman, he's kind of same in that same vicinity, but he is a little bit higher, 32% from three.

Starting point is 00:07:44 And like I said, they will play some small ball ball this is not an overly large team for oklahoma state now what they do well they might not be overly large but they try to work that to their favor because they play at one of the fastest tempos in the conference and really in the country right now oklahoma state is 26th nationally in adjusted tempo rating on kenpom. And in Big 12 only games, they are second in the conference. So this is a team who plays fast, gets up and down. And if Kansas is lethargic at all, you're going to give up easy transition buckets the other way. Oklahoma State does a good job getting to the free throw line.

Starting point is 00:08:16 They actually have the number one rate in Big 12 games. They're also top 15 nationally in basically their free throw attempt rate. So they do a good job getting to that, which I guess you got to watch out for foul trouble there if you're KU. They're, I would say, well, overall nationally above average in conference play, round average in terms of offensive rebound rate. But defensively is where they are an elite defensive rebound team. They're the number one defensive rebounding team in Big 12 only games.

Starting point is 00:08:44 And they're basically top 50 in the country when you take into account their non-con games as well so very good defensive rebounding team um and they also force a lot of turnovers um we'll get into what they don't do well but they do maximize the possessions they're top 50 in turnover defense they're top 40 in steel ray defense and if you're looking at the big 12 only numbers they're fourth in both of those so they clean the glass they force turnovers at a very high rate now what they don't do well they turn the ball over a lot on their end of the floor so even though they get them back uh they're 14th and big 12 only games in turnover rate which is also outside of the top 250 nationally in terms of their turnover rate on offense and a good amount of

Starting point is 00:09:25 those are coming off steals and live ball turnovers that are leading buckets against them uh they do not shoot well from two or three point range their bottom five and big 12 games in both and when you look at two point percentage and three point percentage they are outside the top 250 nationally in both no excuse for ku not to have a good defensive game here. They send teams to the free throw line a lot, so even though they go to the free throw line even more, they also get a little too foul happy in some of those situations. I don't know if some of that's from being undersized,

Starting point is 00:09:55 that maybe you reach in and then you end up giving a foul here or there. And then in general, the defense has not been good at defending twos or threes either. They're giving up 55% on twos. They're giving up over 35% on three-point shots. Out of comparison, Kansas' season is shooting below 54% on twos and below 34% on threes. So on average, and I know Kansas is not an offense to write home about necessarily, but on average, Oklahoma State's defense is giving up a decent tick above what the

Starting point is 00:10:26 kansas offense is averaging from both of those areas but still at the same point in time because of the fact that you look at some of the things oklahoma state does poorly they turn it over too much they foul other teams those are things that kansas doesn't take advantage of kansas doesn't get to the free throw line a ton kansas doesn't force turnovers. So if you're turning some of their weaknesses into neutrals in this game, and we have all these questions about, you know, are they enjoying playing together and yada, yada, yada, what's it going to look like on Saturday?

Starting point is 00:10:53 Let's get to the keys of the game next. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. When the game tips off, the NBA action is just getting started. And there's no better place to get in on it with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. With FanDuel, you can place live bets throughout the game.

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Starting point is 00:11:50 and the Locked On Podcast Network. All right, continuing on here with Locked On Jayhawks, keys to the game. And I should mention, normally we get a postcast out after the game. Might be a little tougher this weekend. I am on solo dad duty for some of this weekend. So it might be a little later on when we get a postcast out after the game. Might be a little tougher this weekend. I am on solo dad duty for some of this weekend. So it might be a little later on when we get the recap out.

Starting point is 00:12:10 But that one will also be back with you on Monday for KU Colorado preview for that one for Kansas. Okay, keys to the game for the Jayhawks. Number one, find enough guys that actually want to play out the rest of the season with energy and effort. And at least kind of just semi-enjoy playing with each other because it is apparent they're not enjoying playing for their coach they're not enjoying playing with each other they're not right there's a myriad of different issues for this kansas team right now and i do wonder you know you're playing this game at home obviously now in field house how pivotal is that going to be obviously kansas has been a much better team this season at home than they have been on the road and you have the ultimate weapon in having alan fieldhouse to that situation but i

Starting point is 00:12:49 guess this goes back to the question about you know is it going to be a little even if it is a sellout is it going to be a little bit less juiced of a crowd right can the kansas crowd make an impact here to raise the energy level for this team because they need anything that they can get from that standpoint and um obviously this is something that i've mentioned a lot lately and it's not something that's really getting better and probably not something we can expect to be better but can it be good enough for at least a good amount of the time during the game because you're the more talented team than oklahoma state right even with all your struggles recently you are a better team on paper than oklahoma state that's why you're going to be a double-digit favorite in this game.

Starting point is 00:13:27 So if you play with even fine energy, you should win this game. But if you don't, you know, Oklahoma State will beat you up on the glass, right, with a good defensive rebounding and at least above-average offensive rebounding. They will take advantage of, you know, you making lackadaisical plays. They will play fast where if you're not playing with that energy, they'll beat you down the court and they'll get some easy layups that you don't even get the chance to stop in the half court. So can you figure that out? And if you're Bill South,

Starting point is 00:13:51 do you at this point just, you know, finally cut down the rotation? Do you, I don't, I don't know what you do, but like, can you find the right mix that you have been unable to find really all

Starting point is 00:14:01 season long? Number two on the keys to the game, no dumb and lazy turnovers. When you look at some of the road games, Kansas has, and we talked about this ahead of the BYU game, but Kansas has had problems turning the ball over on the road. And it's maddening because they're the number one most experienced team in college basketball.

Starting point is 00:14:18 You would think that would make them a little bit more immune to suffering those situations on the road. But the good news is they are better at home in avoiding those turnovers and that's obviously where they are on saturday um now how much of that's going to be accurate because overall this has been a team that's been pretty good at avoiding turnovers mainly because of those home numbers but how much of that is accurate to the way they're playing right now right and and where you see that kind of lack of cohesiveness as a team where you see that lack of i don't know coming together as a team and you see whether it's a physical lapse or a mental lapse in the action a lot of times that can be turnovers i mean we've seen a lot of just lazy

Starting point is 00:14:59 passes on what should be simple passes for this kansas team turn to turnovers or plays where somebody's just holding the ball and then it just gets stripped and lost like there have been too many of those and you can't have those in games like this right um and that is something that I'm worried about but Oklahoma State is 10 and 3 when they force a turnover rate of 20 percent or higher they're 3 and 10 when they don't this is their avenue for winning this game KU plays careless uh it just kind of lacks a day's goal basketball like we've kind of seen in recent games. In addition to the physical lapses

Starting point is 00:15:30 where maybe you're not sprinting all out for this or that, you're also making mental lapses as a part of it. That would be the worry here. The third key to the game here is get the transition game going again. Oklahoma State wants to play fast, so play into that. Get your transition game going because Kansas is not scoring in transition near enough. Really, all conference play, they haven't been able to figure out how to score in transition and lead play after being really good at it in

Starting point is 00:15:55 non-conference play. And going back to the idea they need an energy boost, you want to get the crowd going, well, what better way to do it than getting out in transition and throwing out a big dunk or Zeke Mayo hitting a big three in transition like that gets the crowd going now uh looking into some specific numbers Zeke Mayo is shooting 53 percent on transition threes in big 12 play that's pretty good still 38 percent in half court that's also good but 53 percent very fun number Rylan Griffin is shooting 50 percent in transition from three. Only six attempts, but still, let's go with it. Also, KJ is, this is the biggest one here.

Starting point is 00:16:33 And it makes sense, right? You think about KJ Adams not really being a good half-court offensive player, but you think about him being able to throw down dunks in transition. You see the difference here. KJ Adams in transition during Big 12 play is shooting 58%. In the half court, he's 41%. So, ergo, the more you open this game up, the more you're willing to run and counter with the speed

Starting point is 00:16:54 they want to play with and play more in transition, that's good for you because you are not a very good half court offense. The more you can get out in transition, even though you haven't scored as many fast break points in Big 12 play as you might have hoped, the more you can get out in transition and take away some of those deficiencies in the half court that, you know, again, like KJ goes from a net negative on the offensive end in the half court to a net positive in the transition game on the offensive end, right? So the more you can do that, the better it's going to be for you. Let's get to players to watch next. This is Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:17:31 Finishing things up on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks with a little players to watch. Don't forget you can check out Locked on College Football and or Locked on College Basketball for your second and third listen every day. So thank you for joining us here

Starting point is 00:17:44 on Locked on Jayhawks. Again, we'll try to get a postcast at some point later this weekend, but that could come a little bit later. We'll have that KU Colorado preview for you on Monday. We'll have plenty more KU basketball content coming out. KU football getting ready to start spring ball too. So that'll be upcoming here. We'll have an opportunity to talk about some of that stuff as well here.

Starting point is 00:18:01 Make sure you're subscribed to Locked on Jayhawks. I also started a sub stack. It's free if you want to subscribe. Justed on Jayhawks. I also started a sub stack. It's free. If you want to subscribe, just going to post the occasional, you know, thought that I think is better for written word than on here on the podcast. So it's on my Twitter page.

Starting point is 00:18:14 If you want to find it, I wrote a little something on KU losing by 34 to BYU and how the increasing level of blowout losses for KU has happened over this last handful of years. So again, it's free.

Starting point is 00:18:25 If you want to subscribe, just wanted a little extra outlet to do some other things with around KU. All right, so players to watch for Kansas and Oklahoma State. Let's go with our player matchup. We're going to go with Avery, the 38% three-point shooting four-man for Oklahoma State against KJ Adams slash Flory Badunga. What the heck is the starting lineup going to be for Kansas? I have no idea because it was clear Bill Self was trying to send a message with the three big lineup to start the game. It didn't work. Kansas got down big early and, you know, a team that shoots a lot of threes torched a team who was playing a bunch of big men out there, right?

Starting point is 00:18:59 So what do they do this game against Oklahoma State? Do they go back to it? Do they do something else? Not a clue in the world. So what do they do this game against Oklahoma State? Do they go back to it? Do they do something else? Not a clue in the world. But regardless of what the starting lineup is, you're going to see times where KJ is in at the four. You're going to see times where Flory is in at the four, right? And so whoever it is, you're going to be guarding Avery, who is somebody who, again, has taken over 133 three-point attempts this season. That equates out to basically being like five a game, right?

Starting point is 00:19:26 So you really got to get out there. As good of a defender as KJ has been this season, he does struggle sometimes chasing three-point shooters. And so that would be a bit of a question here. If it's Flory, like same thing for Flory. I think Flory at times has shown the potential of being this, you know, super quick-footed big man who does have mobility on the outside. And he's had possessions where he has been able to keep up he's still a freshman though and there have been other

Starting point is 00:19:48 times where he's gotten lost off ball if he's supposed to guard someone for three and they get a wide open three it's just the typical freshman mistakes that you would kind of expect but that can really hurt you in this game so how are they going to be able to defend him on the defensive end the flip side to this though is what if kj does have one of those lockdown defensive games and can take him out of the game because then if that happens then you're really getting an advantage because i think he is their kind of biggest matchup nightmare on the team the other part of this though is on the offensive end for you okay we just talked about the transition game for kansas well that's a big area that kj adams can make an impact in the transition game can he do that here and then area that KJ Adams can make an impact in the

Starting point is 00:20:25 transition game can he do that here and then from the Flory Padunga perspective right can Flory just kind of outsize Avery on the offensive end to finish maybe a time or two around the rim and to maybe grab a couple big offensive rebounds for KU to get those extra possessions because you're going to have that kind of big man advantage on him so I think that's going to be a really interesting matchup on both ends of the floor are high on the go-off meter uh when looking at oklahoma state they give up a lot of threes in general but they especially give up a lot of threes from the corners and in big 12 play zeke mayo's leaning kansas in corner three-point attempts per game uh rylan griffin's not far behind both of them are uh within 0.2 of each other and both of

Starting point is 00:21:06 them are hitting them at essentially 36 so a good number uh so far from the corner this year so maybe you would circle either of those uh maybe you double circle zeke mayo because he at home is shooting 47 from the floor 44 from three and 84 at the foul line so maybe that would be a double circle for him maybe you would erase the circle on rylan griffin because you don't know how bill self is going to use him and where that all sits with everything right now uh the other guy that i would bring up here is i i do actually think kj can can get some big dunks in this game maybe give you 8 10 points which um is something uh from the transition game but dewan harris because I think DeJuan is somebody who, you know, I don't totally know what I'm going to get from every player at this point in time from KU. Like DeJuan is one of the

Starting point is 00:21:53 few guys I don't really have to wonder if he's going to mentally show up to this game, I guess, point being. And I look at Oklahoma State and even though they're five foot 11 point guard and Arturo Dean is averaging 2.1 steals per game, that is something you have to be aware of. You overall look at the defensive metrics on CBB Analytics, for instance, and it has an all-encompassing defensive rating, and it gives him a negative rating. So maybe he's just kind of a ball hawking player who was going to get his steals, but he's going to get blown by a couple times because of it. So it's not an overly big guard. Like I think that could be good for DeJuan.

Starting point is 00:22:27 So I could see DeJuan having a good game here and trying to put a stamp on, you know, one of his final home games in Allen Fieldhouse. So those would be my high on the go off meter. I guess we'll go with DeJuan and Zeke Mayo. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page

Starting point is 00:22:44 where you can like and subscribe. See you next time with another edition of Locked on Jayhawks.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks' NCAA Tournament Hopes Require Home Win vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

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