Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks vs UCF Knights Round 3: Can Dickinson, Adams & Harris Lead KU in the Big 12 Tourney

Starting point is 00:00:00 Kansas will go for the three game sweep. It'll be the UCF Knights in KU Basketball's first opponent for the Big 12 tournament in 2025. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Podcast Network, your team, every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked On J-Hawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. Thank you to every dayers. Catching each and every episode of the show wherever you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show.

Starting point is 00:00:39 On today's edition of LOJ, we're going to be previewing Kansas' first round game, I guess the second round of the Big 12 tournament, first game of the Big 12 tournament for KU. Taking on the UCF Knights in Kansas City. We'll get into what happened the first two matchups between these teams, the opponent's scouting report for the Knights coming into this one. Keys to the game for KU, players to watch, and so much more on today's episode of the show, which is brought to you by Turbo Tax. Ready for stress-free taxes and the most money back guaranteed? Head over to TurboTax.com today and get matched with your expert because taxes are due here in what like a month, something like that. So yeah, get your taxes done with TurboTax.

Starting point is 00:01:20 All right, Kansas takes on UCF. This will be the late night game on Wednesday night. The Knights were able to easily dispose of the Utes of Utah, which, you know, I think there's the plus minus to, no matter who you played in this first round game, if you're Kansas, the plus of playing UCF is you've beaten them two times. You've shown that you can, and in one of those cases, absolutely paced to them. You've shown that, you know that you can beat this team,

Starting point is 00:01:45 so go do it again. The downside is tough to beat a team three times, right? Although you hear that all the time, I think the actual stats would prove out that the team who wins the third matchup most often is the team who won the first two, but I don't know, maybe those numbers close in from where the first two were.

Starting point is 00:02:01 Then you look at the Utah matchup and it's like, okay, they would have been able to get revenge and like they just played such a bad game offensively. Would that have happened again? I don't know, especially closer to home. Then again, Utah worst matchup. So there were the plus minuses to both either way, though, regardless of who you ended up playing, which again is going to be UCF. It's a game you should win, right?

Starting point is 00:02:20 It's a game that if you want to make noise in the NCAA tournament carry out any momentum you gained from beating Arizona This is the type of game you should win To move yourself on to that tougher matchup in the big 12 tournament quarterfinals where the three seed Arizona is waiting the winner of this game But a late-night game on Wednesday night for KU to determine if they can go there and obviously after last year that Wednesday game Against Cincinnati that was not a fun one kids got paced in that one that Will certainly make this one a little bit more nerve-wracking

Starting point is 00:02:52 Maybe is the term for it, but can'ts to know against UCF this year so trying to make it three straight against the Knights who beat Kansas in Orlando a season ago and For UCF they're playing with their backs against the wall because they're probably in a position where they're sitting at, you know, 17 and 15 now. They had a bad, really bad stretch in conference play where they were sitting at 13 and seven, four and five in conference play. They lost six straight games, including at Colorado and at Oklahoma State. If they win, you know, both of those games and they'd be sitting at 18 and 13 right now, we might be having a better case about them, you know, being of those games, and they'd be sitting at 18 and 13 right now,

Starting point is 00:03:27 we might be having a better case about them, you know, being an NCAA tournament team. Now, maybe if they won their way to the Big 12 championship game and then lost like Houston, at that point, I think they'd be like 20 and 16. Maybe that would be enough to get them back in, but most likely they're going to have to win the conference tournament if they want to make it

Starting point is 00:03:42 to the NCAA tournament. So they are playing like a desperate team, which can always make them a more dangerous team. Now you look at what happened in those first two meetings between these two teams, Kansas obliterated UCF in the first matchup, 99 to 48. Kansas got up early, and that was one of the most impressive games this season for KU.

Starting point is 00:03:58 Obviously they had Shaquille Moore, and had Shaquille Moore playing at a high level at that point in time for KU, but he is now injured and probably not gonna be playing in this one. Florid Badunga was awesome in that first matchup. I thought he was the best player on the floor. I don't know, hard to argue that

Starting point is 00:04:12 because Hunter had 27 points in 23 minutes. He was unbelievable, but it was really everybody in that first matchup for KU. The defense was great. UCF wasn't making shots. KU was making shots. They're moving the ball well. Then you look at the second matchup

Starting point is 00:04:25 and that was a game that was in Allen Fieldhouse. You would think that would be the game more likely to be a blowout. But for Kansas, that was not their best performance. Didn't have a ton of effort, I would say on the defensive end. And what's interesting for this one is you had no Dewan Harris in that second matchup,

Starting point is 00:04:40 but you did have KJ Adams coming back for his first game back. And he came off the bench and ended up making some key plays at the end there. KJ ended up with 12 points for the game. Aziz Mayo was huge, 24 points, 6 of 10 from 3. Oddly enough, only 2 of 10 on 2 point shots. Hunter was good again, 24 points in the home meeting. Flory was good again, 10 points, 11 rebounds in that home meeting. And then you got 12 points off the bench in the home meeting from Diggy Coy to really help to win it, because Gans

Starting point is 00:05:08 went 10 of 21 from three. UCF went bonkers from three in that game, 14 of 36, 39 percent compared to 39 two point shots, almost as many threes as they took twos in that game. And it was just a much different game that you had to pull out in the very end and really Jekyll and Hyde. Now, the one way to maybe view this is okay if that was like an A game from UCF you probably saw their F game in the one in Orlando. Does that

Starting point is 00:05:33 mean the most likely scenario here is you get a C game from UCF and if you get a C game do you just need a B game to move on right like maybe that is kind of the hope here if you are Kansas. Now you look at UCF overall in the season 17 and 15. They after losing those six straight games have now you know won four of their last six games and it hasn't come against any teams who are currently ranked in the top 50 in Ken Palm. They did lose to West Virginia who's right outside of that who's been having to deal with you know some injury stuff so far this season but the fact of the matter is they are starting to win a few more games to where, you know,

Starting point is 00:06:07 they're not in as bad of a rut as they were when they were losing those six consecutive games. And you look at the personnel on this team, they're dangerous because they have some players who can go off at a moment's notice. Keishon Hall, who we saw do that in Allen Fieldhouse. He had a really rough day at the office in the Orlando matchup,

Starting point is 00:06:22 had an awesome day at the office in Allen Fieldhouse. 18 and a half points per game, 7.1 rebounds per game, 2.4 assists per game this season. All conference player for them, over 42% from the floor, almost 35% from three point range. They've got a really good guard in Darius Johnson, 16 and a half points, 4.2 assists, 2.4 steals. He's 41% from three.

Starting point is 00:06:42 I think you saw the luxury of Dewan Harris not being there in that second game to not help defending a guy like that in the one in Allen Fieldhouse after he also, didn't have the best shooting performance in the first matchup. Jordan Ivy Curry, 13 points per game. He's mostly just kind of a scorer,

Starting point is 00:06:58 hasn't been ultra efficient. A lot of three point shots, 33%, but he can get hot at a moment's notice. Mustafa Thiem is a freshman over seven foot big man who can shoot threes, who can shoot mid range. He shot him really well in the Allen Fieldhouse meeting. Good shot blocker, 2.6 per game, six rebounds per game. So he makes things difficult a little bit for KU inside.

Starting point is 00:07:19 And then you have some, I guess, role players you would say after that. Mikey Williams has played better over the second half of the season. Dallin Coleman gets them over four rebounds per game, but hasn't really shot well from three-point range. J.J. Taylor and Benny Williams are guys that over the course of the season have contributed

Starting point is 00:07:36 at different levels for them, though haven't played in every game. So I don't know the status of those guys coming into this. But yeah, you look at it for UCF. And if Keishon Hall and Darius Johnson go off again, just like they did in that meeting in Allen Fieldhouse, it gives them a chance to win games like this. And that does make them dangerous

Starting point is 00:07:53 and especially coming off their first round matchup where they beat Utah and Darius Johnson and Keishon Hall both had 20 plus points in the matchup, right? So you see the way for them to have that success. And Jordan Ivy Curry had a good game off the bench for the Knights as well. So like I said, if they can get going from three and do it at a higher level,

Starting point is 00:08:12 that's where they become dangerous. Now you look at what they've done well over the course of the season where they've maybe struggled a little bit more. If we're looking at conference only numbers, which I think is fair to do, because that's been a huge sample of the season to this point in time. These numbers have not been updated since their win over Utah

Starting point is 00:08:29 in the first game of the big 12 tournament. So I don't know how much these will get adjusted, but they come in with the middle of the pack offense, eighth of the 16 teams at 15th on the defense, but fastest team in the big 12, which is odd. We'll get to one of the keys to the game here, but they're the fastest team in the big 12 in terms of possessions per game. Basically on the offensive end of the court pretty solid and avoiding turnovers middle of the pack in offensive rebound rate

Starting point is 00:08:55 getting to the free throw line three-point percentage, but they are kind of one of those more boomer bus teams where he outside they're like really hot or really cold. They shoot free throws at a very high percentage when they get there on the defensive end of the floor, middle of packing and turnover rate defense. They've been pretty good at blocking shots and three point defense. And then where they've struggled on the offensive end, they're

Starting point is 00:09:20 14th of the 16 teams in the big 12 and two point offense. They get their shots blocked a lot. They haven't had a lot of easy baskets necessarily at the rim for them. And then on the defensive end of the floor, this is the worst defensive rebounding team in big 12 play. So if you can just get those offensive rebounds ready, that's a big reason why Florid Badunga

Starting point is 00:09:38 was so good in both matches because he's a good offensive rebounder. So you wonder if he plays a little bit of a bigger role off the bench in this game after playing so well the first two meetings against the Knights. Also, they are 15th of the 16 teams in two point defense. As UCF, they don't get a ton of steals on the defensive end either.

Starting point is 00:09:57 And they give up a decent amount of threes on that end of the floor. So where can KU exploit some of this? What are the keys to the game for the Jayhawks? Let's discuss that next on Locked on Jayhawks. This episode of L.O.J. is brought to you by Intuit Turbo Tax. Taxes was waiting and wondering and worrying

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Starting point is 00:11:13 tournaments going on getting ready for the NCAA tournament, which we're going to continue here to hear from Kansas perspective, but maybe you want that national perspective. Maybe you want some help on figuring out who some of these other, you know, small teams or big teams to watch out for when you're picking your bracket next week are and do that with luck on college basketball this week. All right, keys to the game for KU against UCF round three this time in the week 12th tournament over at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City on Wednesday night. Number one is the turnover

Starting point is 00:11:37 battle. So you look at the two matchups, I think this speaks as you're looking at maybe the box score, I guess, between the two games that KU played against UCF, because they really are night and day. The only thing that would have made it crazier is if Kansas really got blown out, I guess, the second one, but you have from going from basically winning the game by 50 to having to make a couple late plays to winning the game and that one being the home one, basically night and day and how those

Starting point is 00:12:04 games went, if you're K how those games went if you're KU. And so if you were looking at it from the perspective of what were, you know, some of the big differences in terms of that box score when you played UCF, the turnover battle was one of those that it wasn't like a difference of 20 turnovers versus two or something like that, but it's enough of a difference that at least to me kind of sticks out here. So in the close loss for UCF, or I guess the close win, since we're approaching this from the Kansas perspective, the close win for Kansas, they only forced seven UCF turnovers. In the big win, the blowout win for Kansas over UCF, they forced 14 UCF

Starting point is 00:12:46 turnovers. That's double the amount, obviously. That's seven more turnovers that you forced. But if you also look at it from a perspective of how many times you turned the ball over compared to how many you forced in that first game that was played down in Orlando, Kansas wound up being plus four in the turnover battle. They had four less turnovers than UCF. They were plus four, right? In the game that was played at Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas was minus five.

Starting point is 00:13:11 They had five more turnovers than UCF. That basically means there was a nine turnover swing from the first matchup to the second matchup, right? Those points can add up. If you're given nine extra possessions to the opponent, obviously it doesn't make up, you know, 50 points scoring swing. A lot of that had to do with the shooting numbers, you know, were very altering between the two teams or maybe the quality of looks

Starting point is 00:13:32 altering or the three ball going down at a high rate for UCF. But those things can matter. And in a tournament setting like this, the last thing you want is to, you know, give up those turnover opportunities. And if you win those turnover opportunities, gives you an opportunity to get to our second key to the game for KU, which is speed it up. Because UCF this season, I mentioned the stat earlier, they are number one in Big 12 only games in tempo.

Starting point is 00:14:00 Basically, the amount of possessions they play per game. They're one of the fastest, one of the 20 fastest in the entire country. But UCF is only one and nine this season in games where they play 76 or more possessions one and nine you compare that to the flip side and I haven't seen the numbers from the Utah game yet. So I don't know what that one will get knocked into but they're 15 and six when the games are played with less than 76 possessions.

Starting point is 00:14:27 That is very odd that a team who plays fast is like not played well when it's gotten too fast. Right. And by the way, Kansas is five and one this season when they play 76 or more possessions. They've actually been good when they get to that tempo. And both their wins over UCF are games that they played 76 or more possessions. And I think, too, when you think about this from a perspective of, yeah, it's not Allen Field House,

Starting point is 00:14:48 but Kansas is gonna have more home fans there than UCF. Feel pretty confident saying that, right? And so if you're talking about getting the home fans involved, getting them active, getting them making noise, because it's gonna be harder to, just in general, it's harder to get the home fans to make noise and get active in the T-Mobile Center than it is in Allen Field House, right? Just in general, it's harder to, you know, get the home fans to make noise and get active in the T-Mobile Center than it is in Allen Fieldhouse, right? Just in general, right?

Starting point is 00:15:09 KU fans are still great. They're still going to travel. They're still going to make noise, but it's not the same. You know, it is, you know, it's one way to get those fans going, transition plays, going down, making those, those great plays where you're throwing dunks to KJ Adams or, you know, getting big time threes or layups and transition off steals. Those are the things that really get the crowd going and if you can do that by forcing some turnovers Which we just kind of talked about you look at UCF on the season. They are giving up 11.1 fast break points per game that puts them in just the 19th percentile nationally So like they haven't been that good this season in those fast break points. And that number, if you're looking at conference only games

Starting point is 00:15:45 goes up to 11.3, which would put them in just the 16th percentile in terms of their transition defense. If you go to the last 10 games, UCF's up to 12.2 fast break points allowed per game. That puts them in just the 10th percentile nationally. So this has not been a great transition defense. You can take advantage of that a couple of ways. But if you're Kansas, yeah, speed up this game.

Starting point is 00:16:04 Get out and transition, get those opportunities. All right. The key number three for Kansas in this game is getting more looks at the rim and then making your floaters when you do have to settle a little bit further. So here's what I mean by this. I think in the second matchup, Kansas and whether it was a doing of their own part, or if it was something UCF was doing strategically, obviously having a big man who is gigantic in the middle, which UCF has, who blocks a lot of shots,

Starting point is 00:16:32 that's going to force teams to take shots further away just in general, right? But if you're Kansas, can you figure out a way to get more of those shots at the rim? So UCF is eight and one this season when holding teams to under 48% on two point shots. Now what's interesting the loan loss is that Alan Fieldhouse gaming against Kansas. That was the one time they lost where they held the team under 48% on twos. And what's the best avenue for UCF to try to hold Kansas to a low percentage on two point shots? It's preventing those shots of the rim because A, Kansas wants to get those and B, those are the highest percentage shots that you can possibly get. You're right

Starting point is 00:17:08 there, make the shots, right? So what's interesting is Kansas actually shot better on at the rim shots in Allen Fieldhouse, even though the game was closer than they did in the game in Orlando when they won by like 50 points. Kansas shot 75% in the Allen Field House close win, 64% at the rim and the blowout win. So what gives? The difference is the amount of shot attempts. In the home game, Kansas only attempted 16 shots at the rim.

Starting point is 00:17:37 In the road game, Kansas attempted 42 shots at the rim, more than double, basically two and a half times the amount of shots that they got at the rim. And again, those are your highest percentage shots, both in terms of KU's personnel and just in general, right? So you look at that, and then you also look at that in the home meeting when it was closer, you attempted 12 more shots in that paint area

Starting point is 00:18:02 that is outside of four and a half feet from the rim, but still in the paint. So those like five, six, seven, eight footers, the push shots, the floaters, just inside the free throw line jumpers. Twelve more of those attempts in the home game. And it's very easy to correlate the two and say, oh, you had less shots of the rim. You ended up settling for some of these other floaters instead of just taking it all the way to the rim. And the result was Kansas had a really bad game

Starting point is 00:18:27 because Kansas has had some games where they actually shot well on those shots, but that game was not the case. Kansas was five for 22 on those shots in this game. And on the season, again, they're shooting 39% in that zone. That game was 22%. So it goes twofold. One, can you find a way to get back to, you know,

Starting point is 00:18:47 taking more of those shots at the rim where you get more opportunities? And two, when you do have to settle for those floaters, can you make them in a more normal clip to what you're doing, as opposed to what we saw in that second matchup when things were close in Allen Field, Austin needed a big KJ Adams stop

Starting point is 00:19:02 and he needed some big buckets late to win the game. We're going to finish up here players to watch for Kansas against UCF. This is locked on Jayhawks. Our episode of the show today is brought to you by factor meals looking to optimize your nutrition this year. Factor makes eating well easy with chef prepared, dietitian approved meals that are fresh, never frozen and ready to heat and eat in

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Starting point is 00:20:20 to get 50% off plus free shipping off your first box with Factor. Thanks for joining us again on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. And don't forget, we'll have a postcast up late for you on your Wednesday night to talk about whatever happens between Kansas and UCF. And if they do win, we'll get you out of preview as well. Talking a little of the KU Arizona game at that point in time. If they lose, we'll get you out of preview as well. Talking a little of the KU Arizona game at that point in time. If they lose, we'll have to start turning our head

Starting point is 00:20:48 toward what's going to happen with the NCAA tournament and all that jazz. But stick with us here on Lockdown J-Hawks. Make sure you subscribe. Give us a thumbs up or a five-star review if you can. Anywhere you get your podcast platform certainly helps us on our other things. All right, players to watch for Kansas against UCF.

Starting point is 00:21:02 Let's start with the player matchup of the game. I think you can make a real argument. It's start with the player matchup of the game. I think you can make a real argument. It's got to be Keishon Hall versus KJ Adams, right? Keishon Hall is probably UCF's best player. I mean, it's tough. Do you say Keishon Hall? Do you say Darius Johnson?

Starting point is 00:21:14 But Keishon Hall is the team's leading scorer. He had that game over 30 points in Allen Field House. He was just kind of unstoppable. But for Kansas, they were able to defend him really well in Orlando. And KJ, as much as he did play a big minute total in his first game coming back in that game in on field house, he came off the bench. Right. Maybe you let him get into a bit of a rhythm. Was the game in Orlando, KJ was starting and starting on him.

Starting point is 00:21:36 So you wonder if him being there the full game and KJ is playing really good ball right now, if that'll be the difference in helping to slow him down a little bit more. He just had a good first big 12th tournament game two against Utah, did Keishon Hall. But then what can you get from the offense event from KJ? Can he keep up this offensive tear?

Starting point is 00:21:52 And beyond that, I can say bad defensive rebounding UCF team. Can KJ keep up the rebounding numbers? He's been really good rebounding the ball over the last, what, three or four games. Can those things continue on? And I think that'll be a really good matchup. But I kind of think the most important matchup might be Darius Johnson versus

Starting point is 00:22:10 DeJuan Harris, because we saw the impact of KU not having DeJuan Harris in that second matchup, the turnover numbers go up for KU, the forced turnovers go down for UCF, right? DeJuan Harris is one of your best if not your best at getting steals from the other team. And you look at a guy in Darius Johnson, who's a very efficient player can shoot the three ball well, having another defensive guard out there like DeJuan Harris can really help you mitigate that a

Starting point is 00:22:37 little bit. And, you know, it becomes really difficult if both Hall and Johnson are going off, only one of them is going off, right? You can adjust your defense to one guy or the other. If both are going off, that becomes the problem. And so I think kids really missed Duvon Harrison that first matchup or in the second matchup. And Darius Johnson was really good. And so he's just been a good player. I think that'll be a really good matchup, too.

Starting point is 00:22:56 Now, high on the go off meter to KU. I thought about putting Zeke Mayo here. He had a really good, you know, performance in Allen Fieldhouse making 6-3s, but the two balls just didn't go down. Didn't really have a big scoring effort, but filled up the stat sheet in the game in Orlando. Question mark for me though, like how is he going to perform because he's been so good at home. He struggled on the road. What does this environment do for him in KU? So I'm leaving that one off for now. I'm gonna go with Hunter Dickinson. 24 points in the first matchup, or 24 points in the second matchup.

Starting point is 00:23:28 27 points in the first matchup in 23 minutes. Unbelievable efficiency. So 25 points per game in the two meetings combined with one with like limited minutes. No need to overthink it here. Plus he's coming off a really good performance last game. You heard from Bill South talking about kind of challenging him to carry the team on his back. Well, carry

Starting point is 00:23:45 him on the back. You're in a tournament setting now. Do that now. Plus, when you look at UCF giving up some of those kind of mid range or short mid range shots, he shot those at a high clip lately made a lot of them against Arizona, and kind of a fair amount of those opportunities against UCF as well. Because if their center is just kind of guarding the rim, it'll be kind of left open for some of those opportunities. So we'll go 100 seconds in for our high on the go off meter for KU and Dutch not overthink it.

Starting point is 00:24:14 I don't know for this episode of lockdown Jayhawks you can find our show anywhere you get your podcast including on our YouTube page. We'll be back at you tomorrow night late in the night postcast episode of the KUUCF results. See you then. Make sure to subscribe to the show right here anywhere you hear podcasts or on the YouTube page. It's locked on Jayhawks.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Kansas Jayhawks vs UCF Knights Round 3: Can Dickinson, Adams & Harris Lead KU in the Big 12 Tourney

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